Super Bowl LVI Open Discussion
NFL Super Bowl - Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals face off against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. Winners get a shiny trophy with a silver football on top. Use this thread to discuss it.
Comments
328 comments, Last at 14 Feb 2022, 4:48pm
#1 by drobviousso // Feb 01, 2022 - 11:47am
First, a tip of the hat to the thousands of long suffering Bengals fans that have been waiting for a season like this, and the dozens of Rams fans. In the analytics community, its easy to get obsessed with who is "best" where best really means "plays in a way predictive of future wins" even when we veer dangerously close to making holistic judgements of quality. But I've become more and more interested in "great" instead of "best". When your team has a great game, or a great championship, or a great dynasty, it can have a real impact on a lot of human lives out there. So, here’s praying for a great game!
Second, I’m glad that Brady, Rodgers, and other lighting rod players aren’t going to be in the Super bowl. Too many commentators have had their brains eaten lately by recent events, and I’m glad I’ll be able to enjoy the week leading up to the game without that.
Third, I guess the Great Non-Random-Control Trial of Mathew Stafford has at least an intermediate endpoint now. 6th in DYAR, 9th in DVOA, 4th in QBR, 3rd in ALEX and a super bowl appearance. No variance measure, but I’m not convinced low variance is necessarily a good thing outside of peak Manning/Breese/Brady. Looks “Good, borderline great, trapped in a bad situation for a long time.” My of “great” is probably lower than yours if you want to quibble. I think there are ~5+ great QBs, 10+ great wide receivers, etc. at any one time in the league.
Fourth, speaking of variance, this game feels like a pile of soggy fireworks. Will it all fizzle, with a few dropped 60 yard head-scratchers and WTF sidearm passes into the back of an offensive guard’s helmet? Or will it all pop off with Chase running free with the ball in his hand and Stafford turning broken plays into permanent highlight reel throws? Who know!!?!
#2 by MC2 // Feb 13, 2022 - 4:44pm
I don't have a whole lot original to say about this one. It really does seem like a game where whichever defense can force the opposing QB into making mistakes figures to win, and both Stafford and Burrow have shown themselves to be more than capable of making big mistakes from time to time. Having said that, I think the strength of the Rams pass rush, combined with the weakness of the Bengals pass protection, will likely be the difference. Therefore, my official prediction is:
Rams 28, Bengals 20
#4 by colonialbob // Feb 13, 2022 - 4:56pm
Picking the Rams, rooting for the Bengals, happy for either.
For the Bengals to win, it feels like they need both Burrow to play an excellent game and Stafford (or Akers, based on last game) to give them some gifts. If they don't have both of those things, I just don't see a path. Of course, I didn't see a path to them upsetting the Chiefs at all after going down 21-3, so I'll be preparing for that slice of humble pie just in case.
#11 by Cythammer // Feb 13, 2022 - 5:45pm
Still miffed we missed out on the Bills or Chiefs in the Super Bowl and got the Bengals instead. This game feels more low-wattage than probably three out of the four divisional round games.
I can understand the charm of an underdog to some extent, but it's a lot less charming when they didn't play all THAT well to get advance. Cincinnati came close to losing to a bad Raiders team even with a week of rest. The next two games they were lucky to get the opposing QB to underperform (and the Titans weren't that great anyway). If Mahomes had played like he did against the Bills, the Bengals probably lose by 3 TDs minimum.
That's a big contrast from, say, the 2007 Giants, who had to go through the 13-3 Cowboys and 13-3 Packers even before facing the juggernaut Patriots.
#12 by theslothook // Feb 13, 2022 - 5:56pm
I believe if the 2007 Giants got rolled by a multiple touchdowns like everyone was expecting, we would be lamenting the fact that they got there in the first place by beating two teams that melted down in the prior playoff rounds.
#137 by _Brian // Feb 13, 2022 - 9:30pm
The Pates in 2007 also evaded the strong 13-3 Manning Colts team because of a collapse against the Chargers.
We’re all lucky the unlikely Giants put a stop to that embarrassing run of dumb luck the Pates were gifted in 2007.
#295 by RickD // Feb 14, 2022 - 12:26am
The Pats had beaten the Colts in the regular season.
It's a weird definition of "luck" when you bemoan the wrong team winning a game just because you think the loser would be a tougher matchup. That's not "luck". The Chargers were a good team.
Praising the Giants win to stop "dumb luck" is the height of irony. Go back and look at the helmet catch play, or Samuel's dropped pick, or Stephen Neal getting injured in the 1st quarter. The Giants were the ultimate beneficiaries of "dumb luck".
#13 by ImNewAroundThe… // Feb 13, 2022 - 6:02pm
Reasons to root for Cincy
- Never won a chip
- Mike Daniels
- Would stop Stafford HOF discourse immediately
- Chase>Sewell reach new heights for us nerdz
Reasons not to root for Cincy
- Corny Joe "Brrr" memes
- Eli Apple keeps talking
Reasons to root for LA
- Eli Apple would get roasted
- OBJ gets a ring
Reasons not to root for LA
- Stafford truthers
- LA is an overrated city
#35 by ImNewAroundThe… // Feb 13, 2022 - 7:14pm
Especially when all closer evidence suggests otherwise.
#56 by ImNewAroundThe… // Feb 13, 2022 - 7:35pm
It's just conjecture. Please don't character assassinate.
#68 by ImNewAroundThe… // Feb 13, 2022 - 7:52pm
that's the problem with calling someone you don't know a cancer. THAT'S what's silly. I continue to bring the evidence to stop the malicious, at best, accusation.
#51 by Spanosian Magn… // Feb 13, 2022 - 7:33pm
Same! I thought for a second it was an ad for The Many Saints of Newark on streaming or something, and I was like, "That's weird. Or maybe they're announcing a sequel?" I guess one could say it sort of was.
I have to confess I also liked Schwarzenegger and Hayek as Zeus and Hera. If this were the '90s, they would be making that into a bad movie within a year's time.
#71 by Spanosian Magn… // Feb 13, 2022 - 7:53pm
Yeah...................... Van Jefferson's time to shine I guess?
It's worth remembering that OBJ's little renaissance in LA is in no small part because he's the #2 guy feasting on lesser DBs. Without him it's all on Kupp. I wonder if the Bengals might blitz more now that they only have to cover one guy.
#73 by Sid // Feb 13, 2022 - 7:59pm
Literally as I making my way through this paragraph, he throws it up for grabs
"That average depth of target shows how the Rams often used empty backfields to set up their deep shot plays, and you can definitely attack the Bengals deep. Cincinnati ranked 25th in DVOA on deep passes, those over 15 yards through the air. The Rams ranked lower than you might expect but were still good, 12th in offensive DVOA on deep passes. Interceptions were a big reason the Rams did not rank higher. Although we have this mental image of Matthew Stafford throwing pick-sixes close to his own line of scrimmage, he actually led the NFL with 11 interceptions on deep throws."
#112 by mehllageman56 // Feb 13, 2022 - 8:50pm
Not at all, even though I prefer Vince Staples (different flavor of hip hop, I guess) but for some reason I thought he put out an album every year for four years. If you count Untitled, Unmastered then it was 3 years in a row and 4 out of 6.
Never been a big Eminem fan, but don't hate him as much as other people.
#89 by theTDC // Feb 13, 2022 - 8:29pm
Fantastic game thus far, with the exception of the Beckham injury. Hate to see something like that.
I have this horrible feeling that the botched by Hekker extra point attempt is going to bite the Rams in the behind at some point.
#113 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Feb 13, 2022 - 8:50pm
Yup. Don't know why the NFL makes it so difficult. You've got the best officials in the league on the field and they can't see a receiver face mask a guy to avoid an INT, turning it into a TD. But an upstairs official could call that down to the field before the ball is even spotted (or in this particular case since it was a TD, before the team dance in the end zone is completed).
#296 by RickD // Feb 14, 2022 - 12:30am
As Belichick has said many times, everything should be reviewable. Everybody watching the game knew the officials had blown the call on the Tee Higgins TD. No sound principle is served by placing that judgment call beyond review. The rules are written that way to protect egos.
Gene Steratore said on the radio that the play should have been called back either for a face mask or OPI. He's a former official. So he confirms that the call was missed. How will we all feel after the game if the Bengals had won thanks to a blown call on a 75-yard TD pass?
This situation undermines confidence in the game.
#327 by coltsandrew // Feb 14, 2022 - 1:21pm
I think the biggest problem with that is that you can pretty much guarantee that any coach could win a review if they asked the refs to see if any opponents linemen were holding. By the strictest interpretation of the rules, holding occurs on every play, and guess illegal contact of some sort does as well, so you're basically making those penalties into judgement calls. There's no sense in reviewing matters of judgment, for obvious reasons. But if anything can be reviewed, that just going to clog up the game.
My preference is that officials set the tone for judgment calls early in the game, so that any calls late in the game are in keeping with them. If you're letting defenders grab receivers all game, why start calling it best the goal line in the fourth quarter? If receivers can grab face masks when running routes on the first quarter, why not the fourth? I don't really care how ticky-tack the calls are as long as the calls are pretty consistent, and the baseline is established early in the game. Getting particular about contact when the game is late and close just takes me out of the game as a viewer.
#110 by Cythammer // Feb 13, 2022 - 8:45pm
NBC can use that blown call to promote the ice dancing they have following the game. "Sure, figure skating judging is famously opaque and corrupt, but hey, whatever they come up with can't be worse than the call you already saw tonight."
#119 by Spanosian Magn… // Feb 13, 2022 - 9:07pm
They were only 18 picks apart (and a year, obviously). Akers just obviously hasn't recovered, and hasn't done anything in the 2021-22 season outside of one pass in the blowout of the Cards. I don't care if he's Walter Payton in his prime on a billion-dollar contract, if he's too hurt to do NFL things he should not be the feature back in an NFL game.
#134 by Spanosian Magn… // Feb 13, 2022 - 9:27pm
I'm sure the Bengals are double-teaming Kupp (or triple, or quadruple...), but he just had the second-most yards ever - I humbly suggest that he ought to see more targets than Van Frickin' Jefferson (it's Kupp 6, Jefferson 7).