Super Bowl LVI Open Discussion

NFL Super Bowl - Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals face off against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. Winners get a shiny trophy with a silver football on top. Use this thread to discuss it.
1 Looking forward to this game quite a bit
First, a tip of the hat to the thousands of long suffering Bengals fans that have been waiting for a season like this, and the dozens of Rams fans. In the analytics community, its easy to get obsessed with who is "best" where best really means "plays in a way predictive of future wins" even when we veer dangerously close to making holistic judgements of quality. But I've become more and more interested in "great" instead of "best". When your team has a great game, or a great championship, or a great dynasty, it can have a real impact on a lot of human lives out there. So, here’s praying for a great game!
Second, I’m glad that Brady, Rodgers, and other lighting rod players aren’t going to be in the Super bowl. Too many commentators have had their brains eaten lately by recent events, and I’m glad I’ll be able to enjoy the week leading up to the game without that.
Third, I guess the Great Non-Random-Control Trial of Mathew Stafford has at least an intermediate endpoint now. 6th in DYAR, 9th in DVOA, 4th in QBR, 3rd in ALEX and a super bowl appearance. No variance measure, but I’m not convinced low variance is necessarily a good thing outside of peak Manning/Breese/Brady. Looks “Good, borderline great, trapped in a bad situation for a long time.” My of “great” is probably lower than yours if you want to quibble. I think there are ~5+ great QBs, 10+ great wide receivers, etc. at any one time in the league.
Fourth, speaking of variance, this game feels like a pile of soggy fireworks. Will it all fizzle, with a few dropped 60 yard head-scratchers and WTF sidearm passes into the back of an offensive guard’s helmet? Or will it all pop off with Chase running free with the ball in his hand and Stafford turning broken plays into permanent highlight reel throws? Who know!!?!
2 My Prediction
I don't have a whole lot original to say about this one. It really does seem like a game where whichever defense can force the opposing QB into making mistakes figures to win, and both Stafford and Burrow have shown themselves to be more than capable of making big mistakes from time to time. Having said that, I think the strength of the Rams pass rush, combined with the weakness of the Bengals pass protection, will likely be the difference. Therefore, my official prediction is:
Rams 28, Bengals 20
3 I predict that if Joe borrow…
I predict that if Joe borrow wins the super bowl and just plays okay enough to get the MVP, he will end up on Mike sandos tier 1 quarterback list.
Other than that fact, I am mildly rooting for the Bengals
4 Picking the Rams, rooting…
Picking the Rams, rooting for the Bengals, happy for either.
For the Bengals to win, it feels like they need both Burrow to play an excellent game and Stafford (or Akers, based on last game) to give them some gifts. If they don't have both of those things, I just don't see a path. Of course, I didn't see a path to them upsetting the Chiefs at all after going down 21-3, so I'll be preparing for that slice of humble pie just in case.
5 Greetings from the game. It…
Greetings from the game. It's currently 84 degrees: out-of-shape middle aged man breaks a sweat while walking up stadium steps weather.
6 Do you anticipate any…
Do you anticipate any weather related effects like cramping?
9 No. I am hydrating and not…
No. I am hydrating and not leaving my seat much.
Oh, you mean the players? It has been cool in the late afternoons and the humidity ain't bad.
10 Probably a safer wifi…
Probably a safer wifi connection than at Levi's.
7 Rooting for the Rams, not…
Rooting for the Rams, not really excited for either team. Can't think of a team that's jumped the shark faster than the Bengals imo, but obviously I'm biased.
11 Still miffed we missed out…
Still miffed we missed out on the Bills or Chiefs in the Super Bowl and got the Bengals instead. This game feels more low-wattage than probably three out of the four divisional round games.
I can understand the charm of an underdog to some extent, but it's a lot less charming when they didn't play all THAT well to get advance. Cincinnati came close to losing to a bad Raiders team even with a week of rest. The next two games they were lucky to get the opposing QB to underperform (and the Titans weren't that great anyway). If Mahomes had played like he did against the Bills, the Bengals probably lose by 3 TDs minimum.
That's a big contrast from, say, the 2007 Giants, who had to go through the 13-3 Cowboys and 13-3 Packers even before facing the juggernaut Patriots.
12 I believe if the 2007 Giants…
I believe if the 2007 Giants got rolled by a multiple touchdowns like everyone was expecting, we would be lamenting the fact that they got there in the first place by beating two teams that melted down in the prior playoff rounds.
295 weird
The Pats had beaten the Colts in the regular season.
It's a weird definition of "luck" when you bemoan the wrong team winning a game just because you think the loser would be a tougher matchup. That's not "luck". The Chargers were a good team.
Praising the Giants win to stop "dumb luck" is the height of irony. Go back and look at the helmet catch play, or Samuel's dropped pick, or Stephen Neal getting injured in the 1st quarter. The Giants were the ultimate beneficiaries of "dumb luck".
13 IDC
Reasons to root for Cincy
- Never won a chip
- Mike Daniels
- Would stop Stafford HOF discourse immediately
- Chase>Sewell reach new heights for us nerdz
Reasons not to root for Cincy
- Corny Joe "Brrr" memes
- Eli Apple keeps talking
Reasons to root for LA
- Eli Apple would get roasted
- OBJ gets a ring
Reasons not to root for LA
- Stafford truthers
- LA is an overrated city
14 I regret to inform you that…
I regret to inform you that the Matt Ryan for Hall of Fame discussion is still somehow going strong.
15 Much better case!
4x the Pro Bowls despite being in the same conference, an MVP, OROTY, Bert Bell, OPOTY.
(hint this is another player that should stop the Stafford discussion even though he's not the best coc...award block)
16 Rivers vs Ryan will be…
Rivers vs Ryan will be interesting down the road. Especially given SD is unlikely to support his case at this point.
82 Wait. What Matt are we…
Wait. What Matt are we talking about?
I dont think either should go in.
139 LA is an overrated city …
- LA is an overrated city
Wrong. LA isn’t a city at all, just a long dystopian sprawl of suburbs.
17 My head: Rams-Bengals 34-19…
My head: Rams-Bengals 34-19
My gut: Rams-Bengals 22-26
Like Robot Maria said, the mediator between the head and the gut must be the Bengals' performance on the line on both sides of the ball, or something.
18 Not in love with shotgun on…
Not in love with shotgun on 4th-1, but maybe it was a long 1 and given their line no one would believe they’d sneak.
19 After years on streaming, it…
After years on streaming, it’s weird sitting through ads again.
20 First two series defensive…
First two series defensive fronts dominate. So game will end with a bunch of quick touchdown drives.
21 And the Lions lead in the…
And the Lions lead in the Super Bowl!
\ said no one, ever…
23 It's a miracle what a team…
It's a miracle what a team change can do.
24 Great throw and catch. OBJ…
Great throw and catch. OBJ isn't what he was in New York, but he's still pretty good - with those same ridiculously strong hands, for one thing.
26 Browns media came here this…
Browns media came here this week with no other job but to harangue OBJ about what went wrong in Cleveland..
33 Browns media with something…
Browns media with something to do on Super Bowl week must be a novel experience for them.
37 They always have something…
They always have something to do, and its rarely worthwhile. At least they didn't send the press pool to hound Goodell about Deflategate like a certain region...
69 imagine that
An fanbase being upset with the commisioner for perpetrating a fraud.
Or do you not read Florio? Still pretending Deflategate was anything but a lie?
57 I was thinkin the other day
The rams worst injury (Woods) got saved by a foolish cut from the Browns. Terrific from LAs part.
27 He probably kind of is. It…
He probably kind of is. It just turns out how good a guy is at football is more important to winning football games than his cancerousness. See Owens, Terrell.
35 I don't make character judgements on people IDK
Especially when all closer evidence suggests otherwise.
42 Okay... That's one tweet…
Okay... That's one tweet. You can easily find other stories saying the opposite.
56 There is no evidence
It's just conjecture. Please don't character assassinate.
65 Citing published media…
Citing published media reports is not character assassination. You are a silly person.
68 You havent cited anything
that's the problem with calling someone you don't know a cancer. THAT'S what's silly. I continue to bring the evidence to stop the malicious, at best, accusation.
30 Sometimes one good trick is…
Sometimes one good trick is all you need. Burrows to Chase is one heck of a good trick.
31 Holy wow that Chase catch…
Holy wow that Chase catch. Dare I say, Beckham-esque.
34 There's no way Sewell makes…
There's no way Sewell makes that catch. Like, there's just no way.
36 As someone who thought…
As someone who thought drafting Chase over Sewell was utterly insane, I'm just having big heaps of crow as my Super Bowl snack.
39 Cincinnati probably gives up…
Cincinnati probably gives up the same number of sacks if Chase starts on the line.
40 Sewell has also given up sacks
Not Chase.
Getting the ball out quickly to a great WR>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>everything else
41 "The Rams have already…
"The Rams have already scored more points in this game than in their last Super Bowl appearance."
-Al Michaels, with the body blow
43 See what a HOF QB can do for…
See what a HOF QB can do for you?
48 McVay is coaching against…
McVay is coaching against his baby brother this time, not the monster under his bed.
50 I don't believe so. Just…
I don't believe so. Just like Peyton Manning's last ever pass wasn't technically a pass attempt since it came on a two-point conversion.
46 That was one of the more…
That was one of the more exciting XP attempts I've seen in awhile...
49 Best. Ad. Ever.
Silverado Sopranos commercial made me stop in my tracks and actually pay attention to an ad. Loved it.
51 Same! I thought for a second…
Same! I thought for a second it was an ad for The Many Saints of Newark on streaming or something, and I was like, "That's weird. Or maybe they're announcing a sequel?" I guess one could say it sort of was.
I have to confess I also liked Schwarzenegger and Hayek as Zeus and Hera. If this were the '90s, they would be making that into a bad movie within a year's time.
83 It ended with Meadow…
It ended with Meadow successfully parking, which I thought was a clever touch
291 One of two
New Jersey highway signs and McDonalds customers' inability to rattle off their desired orders when required to are the two winning commercials of this superb owl...
315 The trailers for the Dr…
The trailers for the Dr. Strange movie and the new film by Jordan Peele were the highlights for me, mainly because I saw the full trailers on the internet already.
52 Walkthrough readers and…
Walkthrough readers and podcasts listeners know what's what with that Mixon TD PASS.
53 Whoever bet the over on 2.5…
Whoever bet the over on 2.5 players to attempt a pass is celebrating right now.
58 Oh boy that doesn't look…
Oh boy that doesn't look good for OBJ. Non-contact injuries are always especially scary.
61 How many more receivers can…
How many more receivers can the Rams lose?
71 Yeah…
Yeah...................... Van Jefferson's time to shine I guess?
It's worth remembering that OBJ's little renaissance in LA is in no small part because he's the #2 guy feasting on lesser DBs. Without him it's all on Kupp. I wonder if the Bengals might blitz more now that they only have to cover one guy.
72 Early in the year, was Kupp…
Early in the year, was Kupp the #1 or Woods?
63 Well that was a terrible…
Well that was a terrible throw from Stafford.
64 That boiled down to being an…
That boiled down to being an arm punt. A bad arm punt, since an actual punt might've got the Bengals pinned inside the 10, but far from a disaster.
66 Vernon Hargreaves got a flag…
Vernon Hargreaves got a flag in a game he wasn’t active for.
73 Stafford does it again
Literally as I making my way through this paragraph, he throws it up for grabs
"That average depth of target shows how the Rams often used empty backfields to set up their deep shot plays, and you can definitely attack the Bengals deep. Cincinnati ranked 25th in DVOA on deep passes, those over 15 yards through the air. The Rams ranked lower than you might expect but were still good, 12th in offensive DVOA on deep passes. Interceptions were a big reason the Rams did not rank higher. Although we have this mental image of Matthew Stafford throwing pick-sixes close to his own line of scrimmage, he actually led the NFL with 11 interceptions on deep throws."
74 Jefferson just doesn’t win…
Jefferson just doesn’t win one on one.
78 No running game and now no…
No running game and now no OBJ. Prospects not great for a strong Rams offensive showing in the second half.
81 Beat that carpetbagger Kroenke
Yeah. Even though LA is up 3, I like Cincinnati's chances.
85 No receivers and no running…
No receivers and no running game is still easy mode for Stafford. He has a lead and a defense, which is more than he’s used to.
90 The Rams went 0-2 after the…
The Rams went 0-2 after the Woods injury while Beckham was being worked into the offense. Just sayin'.
80 ......was that an ad for a…
......was that an ad for a dark and gritty Fresh Prince of Bel Air remake?
270 In between the jokes, FPOBA…
In between the jokes, FPOBA was already a pretty good story.
86 Haaaaa did Eminem sneak a…
Haaaaa did Eminem sneak a proper f-bomb in there?
91 Could not hear it live. But…
Could not hear it live. But since the over-under was around 9.5 ...
95 I was going to argue, but…
I was going to argue, but then realized he hasn't put anything out other than a single in 4 years. Just feels like it's been less because we sell out of his records every time we get them back in stock.
109 You were going to argue
bout needing...less Kendrick? This isn't Eminem we're talkin about
112 Not at all, even though I…
Not at all, even though I prefer Vince Staples (different flavor of hip hop, I guess) but for some reason I thought he put out an album every year for four years. If you count Untitled, Unmastered then it was 3 years in a row and 4 out of 6.
Never been a big Eminem fan, but don't hate him as much as other people.
89 Fantastic game thus far,…
Fantastic game thus far, with the exception of the Beckham injury. Hate to see something like that.
I have this horrible feeling that the botched by Hekker extra point attempt is going to bite the Rams in the behind at some point.
94 Cincy with the lead! 75 yard…
Cincy with the lead! 75 yard TD!
96 I don't think the facemask…
I don't think the facemask made Ramsey fall, that was him being burnt/off-balance. But it should have been a penalty.
272 Hm, he didnt grab the…
Hm, he didnt grab the facemask. His sticky gloves made his head turn.
Shoulda been opi
97 That is about as big of a…
That is about as big of a swing on a blown call as you can get. Instead of a penalty a 75 yard TD.
99 Stafford meltdown in…
Stafford meltdown in progress.
Edit: Eh on review that was about 95% on the receiver. It was maybe a skosh too far out front but a pro receiver ought to catch that.
101 It was tipped... Not really…
It was tipped... Not really on him.
105 Yeah just saw the replay and…
Yeah just saw the replay and made an edit.
100 That non-call is just going…
That non-call is just going to leave such a sour taste in the mouth if the Rams don't come back. They don't get more impactful than that.
106 And I think they just burnt…
And I think they just burnt their makeup call on Donald not getting penalized on the sideline fight there.
108 Agreed. I don't like the…
Agreed. I don't like the Rams (specifically the owner), but that call will now be the new Exhibit A for reviewing certain penalties.
113 Yup. Don't know why the NFL…
Yup. Don't know why the NFL makes it so difficult. You've got the best officials in the league on the field and they can't see a receiver face mask a guy to avoid an INT, turning it into a TD. But an upstairs official could call that down to the field before the ball is even spotted (or in this particular case since it was a TD, before the team dance in the end zone is completed).
296 The NFL is run by people terrified of criticism
As Belichick has said many times, everything should be reviewable. Everybody watching the game knew the officials had blown the call on the Tee Higgins TD. No sound principle is served by placing that judgment call beyond review. The rules are written that way to protect egos.
Gene Steratore said on the radio that the play should have been called back either for a face mask or OPI. He's a former official. So he confirms that the call was missed. How will we all feel after the game if the Bengals had won thanks to a blown call on a 75-yard TD pass?
This situation undermines confidence in the game.
327 The main problem
I think the biggest problem with that is that you can pretty much guarantee that any coach could win a review if they asked the refs to see if any opponents linemen were holding. By the strictest interpretation of the rules, holding occurs on every play, and guess illegal contact of some sort does as well, so you're basically making those penalties into judgement calls. There's no sense in reviewing matters of judgment, for obvious reasons. But if anything can be reviewed, that just going to clog up the game.
My preference is that officials set the tone for judgment calls early in the game, so that any calls late in the game are in keeping with them. If you're letting defenders grab receivers all game, why start calling it best the goal line in the fourth quarter? If receivers can grab face masks when running routes on the first quarter, why not the fourth? I don't really care how ticky-tack the calls are as long as the calls are pretty consistent, and the baseline is established early in the game. Getting particular about contact when the game is late and close just takes me out of the game as a viewer.
103 Holy face mask, Batman! Or…
Holy face mask, Batman! Or at least OPI.
107 Yeah, if the Bengals win…
Yeah, if the Bengals win this the o-line is the 5-way MVP. Regardless of who actually gets the shiny hardware at the end.
UPDATE: Mama, the bad man is back again.
110 NBC can use that blown call…
NBC can use that blown call to promote the ice dancing they have following the game. "Sure, figure skating judging is famously opaque and corrupt, but hey, whatever they come up with can't be worse than the call you already saw tonight."
120 The Russian ice dancing…
The Russian ice dancing coach also coaches the skater up for an emergency doping judgment tomorrow.
124 They could be Russia again…
They could be Russia again if they could go a week without someone shooting up.
But would they still be Russian?
114 Rams can't run the ball, 27…
Rams can't run the ball, 27 yards averaging under 2 ypc.
115 They really are hell-bent on…
They really are hell-bent on making Cam Akers happen in these playoffs and it might cost them this game.
119 They were only 18 picks…
They were only 18 picks apart (and a year, obviously). Akers just obviously hasn't recovered, and hasn't done anything in the 2021-22 season outside of one pass in the blowout of the Cards. I don't care if he's Walter Payton in his prime on a billion-dollar contract, if he's too hurt to do NFL things he should not be the feature back in an NFL game.
131 Coaches be wildin
Still a long of 6. Others now 10 carries for 7 yards
116 Special teams are important
Botched XP starting to look important with Rams down 20-16
118 Is McVay making adjustments?…
Is McVay making adjustments? Hard to tell.
130 Collinsworth pointed out…
Collinsworth pointed out those stunts - a big reason they've got 6 sacks this half, after only 1 in the first.
122 Back to back sacks! That's 6…
Back to back sacks! That's 6 sacks for LA
125 The way this game is going…
The way this game is going the Rams might have to force a fumble on one of these sacks to win.
141 One pick was essentially a punt
And the other was the receiver’s fault. If you’re going to post your opinion, try to make it an informed one. Get a grip.
127 Anyone getting out of this…
Anyone getting out of this game healthy?
128 Looks like Burrow might win…
Looks like Burrow might win comeback player of the year next year, too.
129 Refs are simply incapable of…
Refs are simply incapable of calling a taunting penalty correctly. It is such a simple concept, but they can't handle it. Boggles the mind.
297 nuke that rule
Seriously, the taunting rule is not making the NFL a better product.
132 I would say the Rams need to…
I would say the Rams need to just go empty every play, but they don’t have enough receivers for that.
133 It's hard to imagine the…
It's hard to imagine the Rams getting within FG range, much less scoring two FGs or a TD by the end of the game.
134 I'm sure the Bengals are…
I'm sure the Bengals are double-teaming Kupp (or triple, or quadruple...), but he just had the second-most yards ever - I humbly suggest that he ought to see more targets than Van Frickin' Jefferson (it's Kupp 6, Jefferson 7).
135 Im no savant
But I know Cincy likes empty. It's not time for that though lol
Comments
328 comments, Last at 14 Feb 2022, 4:48pm