Super Bowl LVI Open Discussion

First, a tip of the hat to the thousands of long suffering Bengals fans that have been waiting for a season like this, and the dozens of Rams fans.  In the analytics community, its easy to get obsessed with who is "best" where best really means "plays in a way predictive of future wins" even when we veer dangerously close to making holistic judgements of quality.  But I've become more and more interested in "great" instead of "best".  When your team has a great game, or a great championship, or a great dynasty, it can have a real impact on a lot of human lives out there.  So, here’s praying for a great game! 

Second, I’m glad that Brady, Rodgers, and other lighting rod players aren’t going to be in the Super bowl.  Too many commentators have had their brains eaten lately by recent events, and I’m glad I’ll be able to enjoy the week leading up to the game without that.

Third, I guess the Great Non-Random-Control Trial of Mathew Stafford has at least an intermediate endpoint now.  6th in DYAR, 9th in DVOA, 4th in QBR, 3rd in ALEX and a super bowl appearance.  No variance measure, but I’m not convinced low variance is necessarily a good thing outside of peak Manning/Breese/Brady.  Looks “Good, borderline great, trapped in a bad situation for a long time.”  My of “great” is probably lower than yours if you want to quibble.  I think there are ~5+ great QBs, 10+ great wide receivers, etc. at any one time in the league.

Fourth, speaking of variance, this game feels like a pile of soggy fireworks.  Will it all fizzle, with a few dropped 60 yard head-scratchers and WTF sidearm passes into the back of an offensive guard’s helmet?  Or will it all pop off with Chase running free with the ball in his hand and Stafford turning broken plays into permanent highlight reel throws?  Who know!!?!

I don't have a whole lot original to say about this one.  It really does seem like a game where whichever defense can force the opposing QB into making mistakes figures to win, and both Stafford and Burrow have shown themselves to be more than capable of making big mistakes from time to time.  Having said that, I think the strength of the Rams pass rush, combined with the weakness of the Bengals pass protection, will likely be the difference.  Therefore, my official prediction is: 

Rams 28, Bengals 20

I predict that if Joe borrow wins the super bowl and just plays okay enough to get the MVP, he will end up on Mike sandos tier 1 quarterback list. 

Other than that fact, I am mildly rooting for the Bengals

Picking the Rams, rooting for the Bengals, happy for either.

For the Bengals to win, it feels like they need both Burrow to play an excellent game and Stafford (or Akers, based on last game) to give them some gifts. If they don't have both of those things, I just don't see a path. Of course, I didn't see a path to them upsetting the Chiefs at all after going down 21-3, so I'll be preparing for that slice of humble pie just in case.

Rooting for the Rams, not really excited for either team. Can't think of a team that's jumped the shark faster than the Bengals imo, but obviously I'm biased.

Still miffed we missed out on the Bills or Chiefs in the Super Bowl and got the Bengals instead. This game feels more low-wattage than probably three out of the four divisional round games.

I can understand the charm of an underdog to some extent, but it's a lot less charming when they didn't play all THAT well to get advance. Cincinnati came close to losing to a bad Raiders team even with a week of rest. The next two games they were lucky to get the opposing QB to underperform (and the Titans weren't that great anyway). If Mahomes had played like he did against the Bills, the Bengals probably lose by 3 TDs minimum.

That's a big contrast from, say, the 2007 Giants, who had to go through the 13-3 Cowboys and 13-3 Packers even before facing the juggernaut Patriots.

Reasons to root for Cincy

1. Never won a chip
2. Mike Daniels
3. Would stop Stafford HOF discourse immediately
4. Chase>Sewell reach new heights for us nerdz

Reasons not to root for Cincy

1. Corny Joe "Brrr" memes
2. Eli Apple keeps talking

Reasons to root for LA

1. Eli Apple would get roasted
2. OBJ gets a ring

Reasons not to root for LA

1. Stafford truthers
2. LA is an overrated city

My head: Rams-Bengals 34-19

My gut: Rams-Bengals 22-26

Like Robot Maria said, the mediator between the head and the gut must be the Bengals' performance on the line on both sides of the ball, or something.

Not in love with shotgun on 4th-1, but maybe it was a long 1 and given their line no one would believe they’d sneak.

After years on streaming, it’s weird sitting through ads again.

First two series defensive fronts dominate. So game will end with a bunch of quick touchdown drives.

And the Lions lead in the Super Bowl!

\ said no one, ever…

I was told OBJ was a cancer. 

Bengals shoulda punted

”ducks, hustles off stage”

Big catch for Chase! 46 yards.

Sometimes one good trick is all you need.  Burrows to Chase is one heck of a good trick.

Holy wow that Chase catch. Dare I say, Beckham-esque.

Chase is amazing. Home run of a pick.

"The Rams have already scored more points in this game than in their last Super Bowl appearance."

-Al Michaels, with the body blow

13-3. Is the rout on?

Does that go down as an INT?

That was one of the more exciting XP attempts I've seen in awhile...

Silverado Sopranos commercial made me stop in my tracks and actually pay attention to an ad.  Loved it.

Whoever bet the over on 2.5 players to attempt a pass is celebrating right now.

We have a ballgame

Oh boy that doesn't look good for OBJ. Non-contact injuries are always especially scary.

That's an arm punt.

Stafford throws a pick!

gonna get paaaaiiiiiiiiiid.

There's the Stafford I know all too well

Well that was a terrible throw from Stafford.

That boiled down to being an arm punt. A bad arm punt, since an actual punt might've got the Bengals pinned inside the 10, but far from a disaster.

Vernon Hargreaves got a flag in a game he wasn’t active for.

There’s that Bengals line.

Burrow sacked for the 1st time. 

Literally as I making my way through this paragraph, he throws it up for grabs

"That average depth of target shows how the Rams often used empty backfields to set up their deep shot plays, and you can definitely attack the Bengals deep. Cincinnati ranked 25th in DVOA on deep passes, those over 15 yards through the air. The Rams ranked lower than you might expect but were still good, 12th in offensive DVOA on deep passes. Interceptions were a big reason the Rams did not rank higher. Although we have this mental image of Matthew Stafford throwing pick-sixes close to his own line of scrimmage, he actually led the NFL with 11 interceptions on deep throws."

Jefferson just doesn’t win one on one.

Run a real play you cowards.

Kneeling. SMH. 

Pour it on LA, no mercy.

No running game and now no OBJ. Prospects not great for a strong Rams offensive showing in the second half.

......was that an ad for a dark and gritty Fresh Prince of Bel Air remake?

Haaaaa did Eminem sneak a proper f-bomb in there?

ASAP

Fantastic game thus far, with the exception of the Beckham injury. Hate to see something like that.

I have this horrible feeling that the botched by Hekker extra point attempt is going to bite the Rams in the behind at some point. 

Well that escalated quickly.

Well that was fast.

Cincy with the lead! 75 yard TD!

I don't think the facemask made Ramsey fall, that was him being burnt/off-balance. But it should have been a penalty.

That is about as big of a swing on a blown call as you can get. Instead of a penalty a 75 yard TD.

Jeez...another stafford pick

Stafford meltdown in progress.

Edit: Eh on review that was about 95% on the receiver. It was maybe a skosh too far out front but a pro receiver ought to catch that.

That non-call is just going to leave such a sour taste in the mouth if the Rams don't come back. They don't get more impactful than that.

Stafford, Stafford, Stafford

What else can I say

Holy face mask, Batman!  Or at least OPI. 

Donald completely neutralized so far.

NBC can use that blown call to promote the ice dancing they have following the game. "Sure, figure skating judging is famously opaque and corrupt, but hey, whatever they come up with can't be worse than the call you already saw tonight."

My boy Darrell Henderson is back. The BEST Rams RB

Rams can't run the ball,  27 yards averaging under 2 ypc.

They really are hell-bent on making Cam Akers happen in these playoffs and it might cost them this game.

Botched XP starting to look important with Rams down 20-16 

Is McVay making adjustments? Hard to tell.

Back to back sacks! That's 6 sacks for LA

The way this game is going the Rams might have to force a fumble on one of these sacks to win.

is why he has so many 4QC

Anyone getting out of this game healthy?

Looks like Burrow might win comeback player of the year next year, too.

Refs are simply incapable of calling a taunting penalty correctly. It is such a simple concept, but they can't handle it. Boggles the mind.

I would say the Rams need to just go empty every play, but they don’t have enough receivers for that.

It's hard to imagine the Rams getting within FG range, much less scoring two FGs or a TD by the end of the game.

I'm sure the Bengals are double-teaming Kupp (or triple, or quadruple...), but he just had the second-most yards ever - I humbly suggest that he ought to see more targets than Van Frickin' Jefferson (it's Kupp 6, Jefferson 7).

But I know Cincy likes empty. It's not time for that though lol