2023 NFL Draft Round 1 Open Discussion

Panthers QB Bryce Young
Panthers QB Bryce Young
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Draft - This is a thread for open discussion of the 2023 NFL draft! Who was a steal and who's going to be a bust? Which picks were surprises? Discuss it all here. You can also join Football Outsiders writers and readers on the official Football Outsiders Discord server.


96 comments, Last at 30 Apr 2023, 1:02pm

#1 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 27, 2023 - 4:43pm

CG loves drafts, because you don't need to pay people to make them work for you.

Points: 16

#2 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 7:55pm

Over under on how long it takes for the #1 pick to be announced?

Points: 0

#3 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:28pm

Stroud's purported slide ended up being rather modest.

2 QBs to start, presumably we get 2 ERs next.

Points: 3

#4 by ChrisLong // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:32pm

Texans trade up to 3? The Texans are being… smart?

Points: 2

#5 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:36pm

Super aggressive move by HOU….but I kinda like it?

Points: 0

#6 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:37pm

Okay I take that back after I just read what the Texans gave up…good lord.

Points: 3

#7 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:39pm

I'm looking but not finding.  What were the trade details?

Points: 1

#8 by Cythammer // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:41pm

I got it from this Barnwell tweet: https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1651746728645722112?cxt=HHwWgIC8vb-5l-wtAAAA


Seems like the big things is next year's first... The Texans will still be bad so that could be a great pick.


Edit: "Cardinals get: 12 33 1st in 2024 3rd in 2024 Texans get: 3 105"

Apparently next season's first might be from the Browns?

Points: 3

#10 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:42pm

12, 33 this year, 2024 1st and 3d.  Cardinals also give #105 this year

Points: 1

#11 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:42pm

Per Schefter:

ARI gets 12, 33, 2024 1st and 3rd, send back 105 this year.

Points: 1

#13 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:44pm

That's ... seriously?  When did ARI become the sharks of the draft?

Points: 1

#16 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:53pm

benefit of new management and coach, they have some time to delay draft gratification and plan for future

Points: 2

#18 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:55pm

It's not even all that delayed.  No 3 turned unto No 12 and 33 is pretty good for right now.

EDIT:  Apparently those extra draft picks were burning a hole in ARI's pocket and they couldn't, in fact, delay their gratification until number 12.

Points: 0

#20 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:56pm

or correction to move back to 6

but not at huge cost, 2:34 this year.  kept 2024 booty

Points: 1

#23 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:03pm

Would still have preferred to keep 12 + 34 over 6, but not egregious and it's hard to complain about taking a solid tackle prospect.

Points: 2

#17 by theslothook // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:54pm

Just why???? Will Anderson basically needs to be Khalil Mack to justify this. Even if he kind of works out like Clowney, it will be a massive overpay

Points: 6

#19 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:56pm

There’s a decent shot that that Arizona will pick a better or equal player with Houston’s 2024 1st

Points: 3

#12 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:43pm

Carroll will get his choice of defensive players (other than Will Anderson).  Wonder which one he'll choose.

Points: 0

#14 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:44pm

Okay sanity prevails so far, nobody reaching for Levis 

Points: 1

#15 by theslothook // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:52pm

Is Richardson faster than Vick or Lamar? Am I supposed to view him in that prototype?

Points: 1

#22 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:02pm

Faster than Lamar. Much bigger than Vick.

Less accurate than either.

Points: 5

#24 by theslothook // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:05pm

well, got no choice but to hope for the best

Points: 1

#39 by Cythammer // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:30pm

That sounds kind of fun to watch. If he's not accurate than don't waste time on short passes. Either run the ball or chuck it deep. It'll be like a '50s NFL offense.

Points: 1

#29 by Joe L // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:17pm

The comparison on ESPN was to Donovan McNabb, which I can see.

Points: 1

#34 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:22pm

McNabb was a substantially better passer, and that was 25 years ago.

\era-adjusted, McNabb was much better

Points: 4

#51 by Joe L // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:59pm

Agreed, though I think the comparison was mostly on physical attributes rather than learned skill.

Points: 0

#77 by CuseFanInSoCal // Apr 28, 2023 - 12:03pm

Also, McNabb was a fringe Heisman candidate. Richardson ... showed some flashes in college.

Points: 1

#21 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:01pm

working out for Bears to pick Carter if they want ?

Points: 0

#33 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:21pm

Which it turns out they didn't.  Or they let PHI ahead of them not realizing that's who PHI was going for (unlikely).

Points: 0

#25 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:07pm

Tanier nails LV taking Tyree Wilson, although he was too optimistic about them being able to trade down to pick 11 before grabbing him.

Points: 2

#26 by Raiderfan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:10pm

Right pick for the Raiders.  They had to go defense, and the this pick provides another edge rusher, as well as taking some of the burden of Crosby, who I read had been double teamed more than any other player last year.

Points: -1

#27 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:14pm

unless Eagles pip them (meaning Bears and Carter)

and the first reach — Robinson

Points: 1

#42 by Joe L // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:37pm

To prevent someone else trading into that spot and picking the player they want.  The Eagles had been widely rumored to want Carter if he dropped.

The price was a 4th round pick in 2024, so we’ll worth it to get the player you want.

Points: 8

#28 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:16pm

And now Robinson (Benjamin) nails ATL taking Robinson (Bijan) at #8.  

Points: 0

#31 by Cythammer // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:18pm

I don't follow all the draft projections very much... But the fact Barnwell posted a joke mock draft earlier today where the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson leads me to believe that must be a stupid pick: https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1651660255388901388/photo/1

Of course, saying drafting a RB high is dumb isn't exactly going out on a limb...

Points: 3

#35 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:24pm

More like a risky, luxury pick for a team that probably should have been going for a solid producer on one side of the line or the other.

Points: 3

#32 by fb29 // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:21pm

*Falcons take Bijan*

my group chats 




Bijan or bust baby

Arthur Smith better be a genius 

Points: 2

#37 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:27pm

Bears show an interest in keeping Fields alive long enough to reach the end of his rookie contract.  Finally.

Points: 4

#40 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:35pm

Vrabel makes a boring, competent pick to take a seemingly boring, competent o-lineman.  That seems on brand for TEN.

Points: 1

#41 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:37pm

Dear lord, Campbell??  What the hey???

EDIT:  They were trading down.  They could have kept trading down if that's who they wanted.

Points: 4

#43 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:37pm

Nooooooooo Dan Campbell…

Points: 8

#44 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:39pm

And of course Detroit takes a LB. At least they traded back.

Points: 0

#46 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:41pm

If Campbell converts him to LB, that would be awesome!  Can't wait to hear about that during training camp.

EDIT:  you were just being prescient!  They took an LB next.

Points: 1

#47 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:41pm

Now the draft board is ready for the Packers to pick Levis to replace Rodgers :)

Points: 4

#48 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:44pm

Looks like a good pick by GB, but I'm crushed that they didn't spend their first round pick on a WR this year.

Points: 3

#68 by ImNewAroundThe… // Apr 28, 2023 - 12:58am

LVN is redundant. Shouldve been pass catcher but even then it's too much for em

Points: -2

#87 by BadgerDave // Apr 28, 2023 - 4:07pm

idk, Gary's recovering from ACL and now they can think about moving on from Preston Smith next year.

Points: 0

#95 by ImNewAroundThe… // Apr 30, 2023 - 1:00am

They are likely to move on anyway. LVN is currently a one trick pony and even it's questionable. 

Points: 0

#49 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:45pm

My god Brad Holmes WTF. You looked so smart until that damn pick.

Points: 0

#50 by Stendhal1 // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:50pm

question:  when the pick for team X is in but not yet publicly disclosed and the clock is ticking down in the background for team X + 1, does the NFL tell X + 1 who X picked?

Points: 0

#52 by Cythammer // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:01pm

This kid should have thrown in a shot at the Jets. "I WOULD like to thank the Jets, but you've literally never not been terrible in my life."

Points: 4

#53 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:02pm

SackSEER on Will McDonald IV: "In a draft like this, McDonald could provide terrific value in the second round."

Points: 7

#54 by theslothook // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:06pm

Lions take an Rb??? The Lions????

Points: 2

#96 by trfields // Apr 30, 2023 - 1:02pm

With no formal GM training program, Brad Holmes will be fired sooner rather than later with this type of sub-optimal decision making.  Stay at 6 and get Jalen Carter the best player in the draft!  Brad Holmes traded up for a injured player in the first round last year. 

Points: 0

#55 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:08pm

All the WRs are still available.  Will Belichick try his hand at a first round WR pick?

EDIT:  No, no he will not.

Points: 0

#57 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:19pm

Jack Campbell to Dan Campbell.  Tanier got that one right, too!  At pick ... umm, Tanier thought Jack would be available at pick 48.  Well, what does Tanier know?

Points: 2

#58 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:27pm

First an RB at 13, then an LB at 18.  Is Brad Holmes on drugs tonight?  Just a masterclass in failing to understand draft position and positional value.

Points: 8

#61 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:35pm

This would have been a good draft for you not to be following live.  I feel your pain.

On the plus side, maybe they're channeling their inner-Carroll and inner-Belichick and nailing their day two picks (on day one).

Points: 1

#62 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:44pm

I should really stop watching, but I fully expect them to trade back into the first round for a TE.

Points: 3

#72 by Raiderfan // Apr 28, 2023 - 6:08am

No, that is a Gruden thing, although he usually waited took his day three picks then.

Points: 0

#59 by ssereb // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:31pm

No WRs drafted, so the board shapes up perfectly for the Ravens to  ̶d̶r̶a̶f̶t̶ trade out of drafting a game-changing WR1!

Points: 1

#63 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:48pm

Nope!  It's a new era in BAL and they take the splashy pick.

I love the idea of Lamar Jackson to Zay Flowers.  Think they still need a more typical WR1, though, to get the most they could out of Flowers.  EDIT:  totally forgot they signed OBJ for that role.  Nevermind.

Points: 1

#64 by ssereb // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:49pm

never let anyone tell you that words on the internet don't have real world power

Points: 2

#60 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:33pm

SEA's WR room is looking stacked.

Points: 3

#65 by Dr. Mooch // Apr 27, 2023 - 11:14pm

Whelp, there's Tanier again, kinda.  He had Bills trading up to 25 for a TE.  Only he figured Washington, who SIS think is a better choice. 

Points: 1

#66 by andeux // Apr 27, 2023 - 11:14pm

Tanier had the Bills trading up 2 spots to take a TE. Wrong TE, but still pretty close.

Points: 1

#69 by Joe L // Apr 28, 2023 - 1:45am

Eagles draft went better than any fan had a right to respect.  That said, *please* find a way to get Darnell Washington in the 2nd round, Howie!

Points: 2

#73 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:50am

Robinson's GTM got KC's first round pick right.  Not easy by the time you get down to the end of the round

Points: 1

#74 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 10:19am

I was thinking about this. Will Levis falling out of the first round not only hurt his wallet, it severely hurt his career prospects because the commitment to second round prospects is far less than first round picks. 


Now, if he were to have a career like Allen, it's exceedingly unlikely he gets a chance to start a third year or even a second year in a lot of cases. Even a typical bad rookie season probably doesn't  afford him a second year. Hell, he may not ever even get to start at all.


He has to basically exceed expectations in training camp and his rookie season to be given a chance to have a fruitful career. Really huge turn of events for a guy people thought could go number 1 and who most of the mock drafts had going in the top 10.


Points: 3

#75 by justanothersteve // Apr 28, 2023 - 10:46am

It depends on the team. He could end up in a situation like Hurts where the starting QB (Wentz) ended up needing to be replaced. He looks tailor-made for a team like the Raiders with injury-prone Jimmy G just waiting to be replaced. 

Points: 0

#76 by Noahrk // Apr 28, 2023 - 11:15am

I doubt that's the way the Raiders see it. They think they upgraded from Carr. But if they do, it'll be a terrible situation for Levis, who already has high busy potential. I don't see McDaniels lasting long and his QBs will go down with him.

Points: 0

#78 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 12:03pm

What if he goes to a team like the Commanders? That could easily be the end of his starting career, especially if the coach gets fired and it kicks off a total rebuild.

Points: 0

#79 by GwillyGecko // Apr 28, 2023 - 12:05pm

If he improved significantly from year 1 to year 2, and led his team to the playoffs in year 2, like Allen did, Im confident Levis would get a third season.

Points: 0

#80 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 12:09pm

I realize he improved a lot, but he went from absolutely horrible to still really bad in year 2, as he ranked 28th that season. I truly think, even if Levis literally replicated everything about Josh Allen's first two years, the Bills would be moving on from Will Levis. Josh Allen was a high first rounder; where the optics mean it carries a huge cost as an investment.


As an aside, Josh Allen is an outlier. It's really rare for a quarterback to be so bad in 2 years and turn into anything other than at best cromulent qb. Alex Smith comes to mind and I think that's the best outcome in most cases. Allen's career is memorable for partly that reason 

Points: 2

#84 by tjb // Apr 28, 2023 - 1:22pm

Drew Brees as well.

Points: 1

#85 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 1:32pm

Drew Brees is a good example. I think Young's career is more complicated by whether he was dragged down by Tampa or if he was coached up by SF. 

Points: 2

#88 by tjb // Apr 28, 2023 - 4:24pm

Brees was crud for *three* years.  In 2003, if you were claiming that Drew Brees was going to be a first ballot HoF QB you would be told to put down the bottle of whiskey and to please leave the Arbys.

Points: 2

#89 by ahzroc // Apr 28, 2023 - 4:45pm

2004 - Chargers go 12-4 Brees goes to the Pro Bowl (his 1st of 13)  and is Comeback Player of the year, completing 65.5% of his passes for 3,159 yards, with 27 touchdowns to only seven interceptions, giving him a 104.8 Passer Rating . The Chargers won the AFC West for the first time in 10 seasons

Points: 1

#90 by apocalipstick // Apr 28, 2023 - 6:34pm

Allen is not an outlier, a dartboard pick who worked out. He was an elite athlete (Levis ain't) who, after Season 2, hired a private coach to critique and rebuild everything from his footwork up. Nobody doubted Allen's physical gifts; it was his own decision to correct his flaws that made the difference.

Points: 1

#91 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:01pm

He also had slipped through the QB Development Machine. Which is not something Richardson can say.

Points: 2

#93 by turbohappy // Apr 29, 2023 - 3:03am

I'm not sure I agree on Richardson. He wasn't afforded a lot of opportunities when he was younger so he was way behind in development where someone like a Manning or even just someone who could afford all the camps would have been pre-college. No clue what the future holds but he definitely has holes in his history that could lead to being a late bloomer as well.

Points: 0

#94 by apocalipstick // Apr 29, 2023 - 9:32am

Allen wasn't a late bloomer; he made a conscious choice and expended the effort to correct fundamental physical flaws. If Richardson does that, sure, he may develop, but he wasn't at Montana, he was at an SEC program. I don’t see Josh Allen; I see Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith.

Points: 1

#86 by dryheat // Apr 28, 2023 - 3:15pm

I'm sure that if a team graded him highly in the draft, the team would still be interested in signing him.

Points: 0

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