2023 NFL Draft Round 1 Open Discussion
NFL Draft - This is a thread for open discussion of the 2023 NFL draft! Who was a steal and who's going to be a bust? Which picks were surprises? Discuss it all here. You can also join Football Outsiders writers and readers on the official Football Outsiders Discord server.
96 comments, Last at 30 Apr 2023, 1:02pm
#8 by Cythammer // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:41pm
I got it from this Barnwell tweet: https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1651746728645722112?cxt=HHwWgIC8vb-5l-wtAAAA
Seems like the big things is next year's first... The Texans will still be bad so that could be a great pick.
Edit: "Cardinals get: 12 33 1st in 2024 3rd in 2024 Texans get: 3 105"
Apparently next season's first might be from the Browns?
#18 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 8:55pm
It's not even all that delayed. No 3 turned unto No 12 and 33 is pretty good for right now.
EDIT: Apparently those extra draft picks were burning a hole in ARI's pocket and they couldn't, in fact, delay their gratification until number 12.
#26 by Raiderfan // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:10pm
Right pick for the Raiders. They had to go defense, and the this pick provides another edge rusher, as well as taking some of the burden of Crosby, who I read had been double teamed more than any other player last year.
#42 by Joe L // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:37pm
To prevent someone else trading into that spot and picking the player they want. The Eagles had been widely rumored to want Carter if he dropped.
The price was a 4th round pick in 2024, so we’ll worth it to get the player you want.
#31 by Cythammer // Apr 27, 2023 - 9:18pm
I don't follow all the draft projections very much... But the fact Barnwell posted a joke mock draft earlier today where the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson leads me to believe that must be a stupid pick: https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1651660255388901388/photo/1
Of course, saying drafting a RB high is dumb isn't exactly going out on a limb...
#96 by trfields // Apr 30, 2023 - 1:02pm
With no formal GM training program, Brad Holmes will be fired sooner rather than later with this type of sub-optimal decision making. Stay at 6 and get Jalen Carter the best player in the draft! Brad Holmes traded up for a injured player in the first round last year.
#61 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:35pm
This would have been a good draft for you not to be following live. I feel your pain.
On the plus side, maybe they're channeling their inner-Carroll and inner-Belichick and nailing their day two picks (on day one).
#63 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:48pm
Nope! It's a new era in BAL and they take the splashy pick.
I love the idea of Lamar Jackson to Zay Flowers. Think they still need a more typical WR1, though, to get the most they could out of Flowers. EDIT: totally forgot they signed OBJ for that role. Nevermind.
#71 by guest from Europe // Apr 28, 2023 - 3:35am
Just a reminder and info: at the end of this article there is an overview which players were now selected from Stafford, Lance, R. Wilson... trades.
#74 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 10:19am
I was thinking about this. Will Levis falling out of the first round not only hurt his wallet, it severely hurt his career prospects because the commitment to second round prospects is far less than first round picks.
Now, if he were to have a career like Allen, it's exceedingly unlikely he gets a chance to start a third year or even a second year in a lot of cases. Even a typical bad rookie season probably doesn't afford him a second year. Hell, he may not ever even get to start at all.
He has to basically exceed expectations in training camp and his rookie season to be given a chance to have a fruitful career. Really huge turn of events for a guy people thought could go number 1 and who most of the mock drafts had going in the top 10.
#75 by justanothersteve // Apr 28, 2023 - 10:46am
It depends on the team. He could end up in a situation like Hurts where the starting QB (Wentz) ended up needing to be replaced. He looks tailor-made for a team like the Raiders with injury-prone Jimmy G just waiting to be replaced.
#76 by Noahrk // Apr 28, 2023 - 11:15am
I doubt that's the way the Raiders see it. They think they upgraded from Carr. But if they do, it'll be a terrible situation for Levis, who already has high busy potential. I don't see McDaniels lasting long and his QBs will go down with him.
#80 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 12:09pm
I realize he improved a lot, but he went from absolutely horrible to still really bad in year 2, as he ranked 28th that season. I truly think, even if Levis literally replicated everything about Josh Allen's first two years, the Bills would be moving on from Will Levis. Josh Allen was a high first rounder; where the optics mean it carries a huge cost as an investment.
As an aside, Josh Allen is an outlier. It's really rare for a quarterback to be so bad in 2 years and turn into anything other than at best cromulent qb. Alex Smith comes to mind and I think that's the best outcome in most cases. Allen's career is memorable for partly that reason
#89 by ahzroc // Apr 28, 2023 - 4:45pm
2004 - Chargers go 12-4 Brees goes to the Pro Bowl (his 1st of 13) and is Comeback Player of the year, completing 65.5% of his passes for 3,159 yards, with 27 touchdowns to only seven interceptions, giving him a 104.8 Passer Rating . The Chargers won the AFC West for the first time in 10 seasons
#90 by apocalipstick // Apr 28, 2023 - 6:34pm
Allen is not an outlier, a dartboard pick who worked out. He was an elite athlete (Levis ain't) who, after Season 2, hired a private coach to critique and rebuild everything from his footwork up. Nobody doubted Allen's physical gifts; it was his own decision to correct his flaws that made the difference.
#93 by turbohappy // Apr 29, 2023 - 3:03am
I'm not sure I agree on Richardson. He wasn't afforded a lot of opportunities when he was younger so he was way behind in development where someone like a Manning or even just someone who could afford all the camps would have been pre-college. No clue what the future holds but he definitely has holes in his history that could lead to being a late bloomer as well.
#94 by apocalipstick // Apr 29, 2023 - 9:32am
Allen wasn't a late bloomer; he made a conscious choice and expended the effort to correct fundamental physical flaws. If Richardson does that, sure, he may develop, but he wasn't at Montana, he was at an SEC program. I don’t see Josh Allen; I see Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith.