2023 NFL Draft Rounds 2-3 Open Discussion

Kentucky QB Will Levis
Kentucky QB Will Levis
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Draft - This is a thread for open discussion of the 2023 NFL draft, Friday night with rounds 2-3. (If you want to keep posting on Saturday during rounds 4-7, we're not going to stop you.) Who was a steal and who's going to be a bust? Which picks were surprises? When is Will Levis finally going to be picked? Joey Porter and Michael Mayer? Discuss it all here. You can also join Football Outsiders writers and readers on the official Football Outsiders Discord server.


43 comments, Last at 01 May 2023, 8:06pm

#1 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 6:09pm

What team does Will Levis make sense on? I am not sure I know the answer, but I can tell you who it shouldn't be. And that's the Colts, despite Jim Irsay inexplicably believing they should. 

Points: 0

#2 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:14pm

TEN, I suppose, but I expect SEA will take him first.

Maybe DET, but I suspect there's a fullback they have their eye on instead.


EDIT: TEN made sure to get in front of SEA to get Levis.  And DET gets that TE our favourite Lions fan predicted yesterday.  At least they didn't trade up to get him!

Points: 1

#4 by theslothook // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:26pm

Detroit is really flying in the face of drafting convention with some of these positional choices.

Points: 1

#7 by johonny12 // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:31pm

Their draft is having that Jon Gruden I'm smarter than all the other teams feel to it. 

Points: 1

#17 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 28, 2023 - 9:45pm

His first two drafts were awesome, so this is more than a little disappointing.  Maybe he’s getting a big ego already?  It’s like he’s having Bobby Beathard’s career arc in super fast motion, without getting the accolades first.  Just seems like a squandered opportunity with all the capital they had.

Points: 4

#30 by LondonMonarch // Apr 30, 2023 - 10:44am

Apart from the Branch pick which is solid (and you never want to put weight on a non-solid Branch) this all seems insane. Even the Hooker pick is kind of odd - I could understand why a QB-less team or a team with a very old QB might take him. But what are the chances of his peak being materially higher than Goff? Very low surely.

Points: 0

#32 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 30, 2023 - 3:08pm

The odds of any draft pick being better than a solid starter are very low.

Points: 0

#33 by ImNewAroundThe… // Apr 30, 2023 - 4:59pm

I could understand why a QB-less team or a team with a very old QB might take him.

Lions are somewhat recognizing Goof (and Sudfeld aren't/) isn't it! Trying to break the purgatory that even Sean McVay got tired of, with a guy they can mold themselves. And if he isn't, so what, most aren't at the range but who knows, maybe he's Russ (oh sorry, I know the next rebuttal). 

Points: 0

#34 by LondonMonarch // May 01, 2023 - 8:52am

Goff isn't "it", but he is a 28yo competent NFL starter. So to move on from him they would need to find someone who has the real potential to be a plus starter or better. I could've seen the argument for Richardson as that player, had he fallen to them, but Hooker? Seems vanishingly unlikely.

Points: 0

#35 by ImNewAroundThe… // May 01, 2023 - 9:56am

Just settling for competency is how you end up...missing the playoffs (again) and missing out on Richardson (and Stroud and Young). It's alright to take a longer shot occasionally. Tank Dell (the next pick) likely isn't the make or break piece for them to contend. 

Points: -1

#36 by KnotMe // May 01, 2023 - 10:59am

New England is probably the cautionary tale of "just settling for competency". That doesn't seem to be working out. 

Points: 0

#37 by guest from Europe // May 01, 2023 - 1:50pm

If a team is successful or not in many cases is an interpretation. Why is a similar type of season considered to be a success for Seahawks, Lions, Jaguars and a failure for Patriots, Packers, Steelers? They were all on the level of "competent, but not a real contender" in 2022.

As for the Patriots, they were quite good in 2021. Then in 2022 they decided to have a conceptual art piece by Patricia and Judge instead of a functional offense.

Some teams that were actively bad multiple years to get very high draft picks in search of a QB: Browns for Mayfield, Jaguars for Lawrence, Lions for Stafford, Cardinals for Murray, Texans now... not a lot of success after selecting such a QB. A team which is generally competent and bad for 1 year such as Colts to select Luck is different.

The biggest success of this route "be bad, not competent and than draft" are probably the Bengals. They were lucky that Burrow didn't have a career-ending injury in the first 2 years due to bad o-line play.

Points: 1

#38 by LondonMonarch // May 01, 2023 - 2:00pm

I agree re "just settling for competency". It just feels like Hooker's chances of producing anything higher than that are extremely low.

Points: 0

#39 by ImNewAroundThe… // May 01, 2023 - 2:47pm

higher than that are extremely low.

Might want to look at qbase then 👀

Also do you know who Martin Emerson is?

Points: 0

#40 by LondonMonarch // May 01, 2023 - 4:29pm

I suspect, someone who will contribute to his team this year and probably in future years.

Points: 0

#42 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // May 01, 2023 - 7:09pm

Qbase says Hooker is who all the draftniks think Richardson is.

Points: 0

#43 by ImNewAroundThe… // May 01, 2023 - 8:06pm

Not that Hooker actually has a higher ceiling than Richardson (he is older and less athletic after all) but he wasn't available even if they stayed at 6, so it's a moo point. Just might be underrating his chances. Pretty much every consensus board had Hooker higher than where he was drafted so it's not even a reach in a vacuum. 

There's 2 years of Goof and 1 year of Sudfeld (why they felt they had to give a backup guaranteed money, especially pre draft, I will never understand). That can fit a developing timeline for Hooker. If he doesn't work out, well, most don't at that spot anyway. Forward looking pick and worth the gamble. 

Points: 0

#3 by Zheng // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:16pm

Did the Steelers actually fend off all the offers for their pick?

Points: 0

#6 by NYChem // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:29pm

My guess is the Steelers did not figure they'd have the option to draft porter with the 32, and they set the stage for trades with that expectation, but when porter fell that upped the asked for compensation beyond what teams would give. 

Points: 0

#8 by Zheng // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:42pm

Makes sense.  Porter seems like one of the last elite-ish players available.

Points: 1

#11 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:53pm

Mark that as another success for Robinson's GTM.  He mocked Porter as falling to the second round, to some skepticism (and some happy PIT fans).

Points: 2

#5 by Ben // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:28pm

Not a vote of confidence for Malik Willis. 

Points: 0

#9 by serutan // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:45pm

True, but IIRC there rumblings during the season that the Titans were fast losing confidence in Willis

Points: 0

#24 by Vincent Verhei // Apr 29, 2023 - 2:22am

It wasn't a good sign when they benched him for a guy off the Lions' practice squad. 

Points: 6

#26 by IlluminatusUIUC // Apr 29, 2023 - 8:51am

I immediately assumed drafting Willis was the source of the fight that got Jon Robinson fired.

Points: 1

#10 by fb29 // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:51pm

In Tanier’s mock draft Bergeron was a 90 something pick and pegged as developmental player

But Falcons could really use a 318lb honker to add some heft to our soyboy o-line.

should I expect him out there week 1 at guard? Does anyone know anything about Bergeron 

Points: 0

#12 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 7:56pm

ATL announced him as a G, so I'm guessing the plan is to start him inside and rely on his size while they see if he can develop technique to go along with it.

Points: 0

#14 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 8:13pm

DET jumps ahead of NE to get Branch before Belichick could.

Points: 0

#15 by JS // Apr 28, 2023 - 8:25pm

GB has their eye on someone? Or they're not enthused about anyone?

ETA: good pick but probably could have rolled back a bit more; probably no more offers to do so.

Points: 1

#16 by Ben // Apr 28, 2023 - 9:35pm

The Lions have made some weird picks, but Hooker in the third round seems like a solid gamble. 

Points: 3

#18 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 28, 2023 - 9:47pm

I liked the Branch pick.  Hooker turning 26 this season isn’t great, but whatever; maybe he turns into a reliable backup.  If I close my eyes and pretend their picks were in reverse order, their draft grade goes from D- to C.

Points: 2

#20 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 9:55pm

Pretty sure they traded smartly to get Branch, too.  Maybe Belichick passes on him and takes Keion White anyway, but I wouldn't have taken that gamble if I liked Branch, who looks to be a good player to get at that point in the draft.

Points: 1

#19 by lowsmoke // Apr 28, 2023 - 9:51pm

The Commanders had a DVOA rank of 9 for their defense and 28 for their offense.  So RR drafts 2 cornerbacks with his first two picks!  We can all rejoice that Snider is on the way out, but it's clear that more leadership change is necessary.

Points: 2

#21 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 10:05pm

Belichick was doing such a good job this year drafting guys on the right day.  Then he goes and spends his 3rd round pick on a guy who'd still be available tomorrow. 

Points: 1

#22 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 28, 2023 - 10:20pm

MIA takes Devon Achane.  Presumably so they have somebody fast enough to block downfield for Tyreek Hill.

Points: 2

#25 by guest from Europe // Apr 29, 2023 - 4:30am

The 49ers don't need no draft picks. They want a kicker?!

They must really love the Rams GM and his t-shirt.

Points: 2

#28 by bravehoptoad // Apr 29, 2023 - 12:31pm

We'll, they didn't have a fourth round pick, which is usually when the best kickers get drafted.

Points: 1

#27 by Dales // Apr 29, 2023 - 9:25am

So refreshing to have my Giants running a draft well.

Points: 4

#31 by whocares4 // Apr 30, 2023 - 3:06pm

It's fun as the fan of a very good team to get to see them draft a bunch of high upside guys for depth and take a flyer on a world-class player with percieved character risk because they already are strong at his position.

When your team has far fewer holes of the "we REALLY need an impact player or viable starter at X, Y & Z positions!" variety, they can take a chance on a bunch of the exciting players with big question marks and let them develop.

Points: 1

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