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Off The Charts Podcast: March 21

This week, Aaron Schatz and Matt Manocherian are joined by Mike Tanier to discuss Moneyball heresies. Was it right for the Sloan Analyics Conference to give an award to the Raiders for the Khalil Mack trade? Do we now have a problem where "analytics" has become synonymous in many circles with "tanking?" What really is the value of a draft pick compared to a veteran?

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Comments

4 comments, Last at 31 Mar 2019, 10:08am

1 Re: Off The Charts Podcast: March 21

by theslothook // Mar 29, 2019 - 1:16pm

The Khalil Mack trade was asanine, not sure what analytics justified it.

I feel that all three people took both sides of the tanking argument. The top draft picks make a huge difference but maybe tanking for them is a bad idea...

It's no accident the browns are a hot pick to be good next year...they drafted Baker, Ward and Garrett...two number 1 picks and a 4th overqll. Yes the taking of Kizer was dumb, but that's a browns decision, not a result of tanking.

Fact is, if the owner was willing to stomach it, tanking for a few years is a pretty good idea.

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2 Re: Off The Charts Podcast: March 21

by Vincent Verhei // Mar 29, 2019 - 2:30pm

"The Khalil Mack trade was asanine, not sure what analytics justified it."

I'm not sure if this is a question, but the trade won the Best Transaction award at the Sloan Conference at MIT.

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3 Re: Off The Charts Podcast: March 21

by theslothook // Mar 29, 2019 - 3:50pm

I couldn't find how they justified it.

It seems to me that it comes down to Mack's value at the contract he has vs the expected discounted value of the first round picks net the 2nd rounder they gave up. And since there should be a discount rate for the uncertainty of the two first rounders, I'm not sure how they landed on the Raiders winning.

The raiders are unlikely to land a player of Mack's caliber, especially at such a premium position.

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4 Re: Off The Charts Podcast: March 21

by Chip // Mar 31, 2019 - 10:08am

I’m not sure how Sloan justified it either. Two Important facts are continually left out of the discussion:
- CHI and OAK swap 2020 1st and 2nd rd picks. This is effectively a 3rd rd pick (or worse) depending on the 2019 season (most expect CHI to be a top 10 team and OAK a bottom 10 team in 2019). So it’s a 1st and two 3rds for Mack. Keep in mind, the first they gave up is 24th in 2019 (740 pnts per PFR value chart) + two more 3rds (~350 PFR value points) is roughly equivalent to the 15th pick in the draft.
- Khalil Mack contract has an out after the 2021 season with a $12M dead cap hit when he is 30 yrs old. He cash comp and cap hit avgs $17.5M over the first 4 yrs - ages 27-30 - peak performance years.

So how can the analytics community criticize the trade when it’s effectively one first round pick (15th overall) for a DPOY (3x All-Pro) at $17M / yr for his peak age production (ages 27-30)?

Particularly when football is a team sport such that his addition actually does make 1 + 1 = 3. Meaning that Akiem Hicks is no longer double teamed and generated 51 pressures from the interior in 2018. That his addition, took a -15% DEF DVOA and made it a -30% DVOA. And bc Trubisky is on his rookie contract, they can actually afford the cap space to play KM QB money.

The criticism doesn’t make sense to me.

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