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Check out this sample of Weekly NFL Picks from: Week 3, 2018

ORDER HOME AWAY LINE (HOME) PROJ LINE SPREAD PICK CONF. ORDER STRAIGHT PICK CONF. ORDER
1 CLE NYJ -3 -2.3 NYJ 12 CLE 12
2 PHI IND -7* -6.7 IND* 15 PHI 6
3 CAR CIN -3 -2.8 CIN 16 CAR 10
4 JAX TEN -9.5* -7.6 TEN 6 JAX 4
5 ATL NO -3 -0.5 NO 4 ATL 15
6 BAL DEN -5.5* -5.9 BAL 14 BAL 9
7 HOU NYG -6 -7.0 HOU 10 HOU 5
8 MIA OAK -3 -6.2 MIA 2 MIA 7
9 WAS GB +3 -0.3 WAS 1 WAS 16
10 MIN BUF -16.5 -14.8 BUF 8 MIN 1
11 KC SF -6.5 -8.6 KC 5 KC 2
12 LAR LAC -7 -8.0 LAR 9 LAR 3
13 ARI CHI +4.5* +2.8 ARI 7 CHI 11
14 SEA DAL -1.5 -0.8 DAL 13 SEA 14
15 DET NE +7* +6.1 DET 11 NE 8
16 TB PIT -1.5** +1.2 PIT 3 PIT 13

Distribution of statistics, including Weekly NFL Picks, from Football Outsiders is strictly prohibited. See Terms of Use.

 

Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red

  • GREEN: Difference of a TD or more.
  • YELLOW: Difference between a FG and a TD.
  • RED: Difference of less than a FG.

 

Confidence Order

Games are ranked from 1 (most likely to cover/win) to 16 (least likely to cover/win).

 

Projected Line

Listed lines are the "VI consensus" from VegasInsider.com.

We will not make picks on games where our projected line is within 0.1 points of the Vegas consensus line.

 

How are these picks different from overall DVOA reports?

Weekly NFL Picks are based on more complicated formulas than just DVOA itself. Picks against the spread are based on an equation that measures current DVOA (using certain specific splits, not just each team's total) as well as weather, injuries, and (from Week 1 to Week 10) the Football Outsiders preseason projections.

Similarly, postseason picks are different from the FO Playoff Odds Report because they are based on a more complicated formula, while the playoff odds report only considers overall DVOA.

Please note that we will try to pick all games to help those who are in pick pools that require picks for all games, but this does not mean we are suggesting wagers on all games. Don't be an idiot.

 

Updates

Sunday games will be updated for the last time on Saturdays.

MNF game will be updated for the last time on Monday afternoon.

Picks may be revised before Sunday. Asterisks indicate each time picks have been revised since the original posting. Projected lines are based in part on actual lines, so note that specific projections would change slightly if there are further line changes not recorded here.

Obviously, if the update date/time listed above is Friday or later, any Thursday games listed below have only been changed in confidence order; the actual lines and picks stay the same. We will not change listed picks based on constant changes in the line before gametime on Sunday.

 

PREVIOUS RECORDS:

The Weekly Picks come in two forms – against the spread and straight-up. They are derived using a formula that incorporates splits of DVOA, as well as injury and weather data.

FO’s record of regular-season picks since 2008:

Against the Spread   Straight-Up
Season Record Accuracy
2018* 124-108-11 53.3%
2017* 115-112-10 50.6%
2016 121-112-13 51.8%
2015 114-130-9 46.8%
2014 111-136-9 45.1%
2013 119-130-7 47.9%
2012 144-104-8 57.8%
2011 127-117-12 52.0%
2010 141-108-7 56.1%
2009 127-121-8 51.2%
2008 133-114-8 53.7%
 
Season Record Accuracy
2018** 170-80-2 67.9%
2017*** 176-78 69.3%
2016 160-92-2 63.4%
2015 153-103 59.8%
2014 162-93-1 63.5%
2013 171-84-1 67.0%
2012 171-84-1 67.0%
2011 164-92 64.2%
2010 165-91 64.1%
2009 163-93 63.7%
2008 147-73-1 66.5%

 

* Top picks (FO line difference from actual line was more than a field goal) were 33-26-1 in 2017-2018.

No, we don't know what happened to our accurate picks from 2013-2015, but do not let this discourage you from purchasing Premium Access. We stand by our overall performance, and we won’t conceal our down years in order to gain more subscriptions through deceit. The good news is that our picks rebounded the following years, and Premium Access offers much more than just picks against the spread.

** 2018 Broken down by predicted line: 

  • Straight gap TD or more: 62-17, .785
  • Straight gap FG to TD: 69-35-1, .662
  • Straight gap less than FG: 39-28-1, .581
  • Playoffs: 6-5

*** 2017 Broken down by predicted line: 

  • Straight gap TD or more: 70-16, 81.4%
  • Straight gap FG to TD: 65-35, 65.0%
  • Straight gap less than FG: 41-27, 60.3%

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