Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/14/18, through Week 15 (Thursday)

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 40,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 40,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie

Washington and Cincinnati's ratings are both penalized due to injuries to starting quarterbacks Alex Smith and Andy Dalton (as well as Washington backup Colt McCoy).

These simulations do not account for the possibility of teams resting starters in Weeks 16 and 17 after clinching playoff spots.

Kansas City and Los Angeles Chargers DVOA after Thursday game is estimated.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 8-5 -1.7% 9.3 0.0% 0.3% 13.7% 84.2% 0.0% 0.3% 98.2% 0.3% 0.3% 98.6% -0.1%
PHI 6-7 -6.8% 7.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 11.2% 1.3% 0.0% 11.3% 12.6% -0.0%
WAS 6-7 -35.4% 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 7.9% 0.5% 0.0% 8.1% 8.6% -0.0%
NYG 5-8 8.8% 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% -0.0%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CHI 9-4 16.0% 10.8 0.6% 9.3% 74.9% 12.7% 0.4% 2.0% 97.5% 9.9% 2.4% 99.9% 0.0%
MIN 6-6-1 2.9% 8.2 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.0% 4.6% 49.6% 2.5% 0.0% 54.2% 56.7% 0.2%
GB 5-7-1 7.1% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 6.3% -0.2%
DET 5-8 -14.0% 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2% 0.1%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 11-2 26.3% 13.0 50.9% 41.3% 7.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
CAR 6-7 1.6% 7.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 13.8% -0.0%
TB 5-8 -15.2% 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
ATL 4-9 -6.2% 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LAR 11-2 23.6% 13.4 48.5% 49.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
SEA 8-5 13.5% 10.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3% 99.3% 0.1%
SF 3-10 -24.1% 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARI 3-10 -35.9% 3.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 9-4 12.7% 11.0 7.7% 60.9% 20.2% 7.3% 0.0% 2.2% 96.2% 68.6% 2.2% 98.3% -0.0%
MIA 7-6 -10.0% 8.4 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.0% 15.4% 3.8% 0.2% 15.4% 19.2% -0.4%
BUF 4-9 -20.3% 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYJ 4-9 -21.4% 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 7-5-1 13.5% 9.2 0.0% 2.9% 11.0% 50.7% 0.0% 6.1% 64.5% 2.9% 6.1% 70.7% 0.3%
BAL 7-6 16.1% 8.8 0.0% 1.0% 6.2% 27.9% 0.0% 13.5% 35.0% 1.0% 13.5% 48.6% -0.5%
CLE 5-7-1 -4.6% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% -0.0%
CIN 5-8 -27.1% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.0%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
HOU 9-4 3.7% 10.7 0.8% 25.9% 50.9% 4.7% 0.0% 15.1% 82.2% 26.6% 15.1% 97.3% 0.2%
IND 7-6 13.5% 8.8 0.0% 0.3% 6.4% 4.2% 0.0% 27.7% 11.0% 0.3% 27.7% 38.7% 0.1%
TEN 7-6 -4.8% 8.5 0.0% 0.7% 3.2% 2.8% 0.0% 12.8% 6.8% 0.7% 12.8% 19.6% -0.1%
JAX 4-9 -8.8% 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 11-3 29.9% 12.4 73.3% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% 19.1% 0.0% 80.9% 80.6% 19.1% 100.0% 0.0%
LAC 11-3 28.4% 12.1 18.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 80.9% 0.0% 19.1% 19.1% 80.9% 100.0% 0.3%
DEN 6-7 19.6% 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 0.2%
OAK 3-10 -23.7% 3.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
KC 61.1%40.6%22.6%
NO 68.9%38.9%20.4%
LAR 68.8%37.1%18.8%
LAC 31.5%18.0%9.7%
NE 48.4%19.4%8.8%
CHI 26.1%11.5%5.3%
HOU 24.7%8.1%3.1%
SEA 16.2%6.2%2.9%
PIT 14.1%5.8%2.6%
BAL 9.4%4.1%2.0%
IND 6.3%2.6%1.1%
DAL 11.4%3.5%1.1%
MIN 5.5%1.7%0.7%
DEN 1.2%0.5%0.3%
TEN 1.9%0.6%0.2%
CAR 1.2%0.4%0.1%
MIA 1.3%0.4%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
ARI 47.2% 95.9%
SF 34.1% 93.8%
OAK 10.1% 84.4%
NYJ 4.6% 67.3%
ATL 3.1% 44.8%
BUF 0.6% 38.5%
TB 0.0% 20.9%
JAX 0.1% 18.6%
DET 0.0% 15.3%
CIN 0.0% 11.5%
NYG 0.0% 4.9%
CLE 0.0% 1.5%
GB 0.0% 1.4%
WAS 0.0% 1.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 15.9%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 15.1%
GOAT Quarterback Battle NO vs NE 7.5%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LAR vs NE 7.2%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 7.0%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 6.6%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 4.6%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 2.3%
Back in Black NO vs PIT 2.2%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 2.2%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 1.2%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 1.1%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.7%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.4%
Randy Moss Memories Bowl MIN vs NE 0.3%
Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.3%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.3%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
2012 Draft Showdown SEA vs IND 0.2%
Ndamukong Suh Reunion Special LAR vs MIA 0.1%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.1%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.1%