Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/18/18, through Week 2.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

  • Tampa Bay has a 6.0% DVOA penalty in Week 3 due to Jameis Winston suspension. Yes, we know this seems ridiculous given how Ryan Fitzpatrick has played in the first two weeks, but he's still the backup and we need to project performance based on the larger sample size of his entire career.

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 1-1 11.9% 8.9 7.2% 9.6% 10.4% 12.3% 6.7% 7.1% 39.6% 16.9% 13.7% 53.4% -13.7%
DAL 1-1 7.3% 8.7 5.8% 8.5% 9.4% 11.3% 6.9% 7.1% 34.9% 14.3% 14.1% 49.0% 13.7%
WAS 1-1 0.8% 8.0 3.7% 5.3% 6.2% 7.5% 6.7% 7.2% 22.7% 9.1% 13.9% 36.6% -7.4%
NYG 0-2 -17.8% 5.3 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.6% 2.9% 5.6% -4.9%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
MIN 1-0-1 12.9% 9.8 14.9% 13.7% 11.6% 8.8% 11.6% 8.3% 48.9% 28.6% 19.9% 68.8% 1.1%
GB 1-0-1 5.8% 9.2 8.7% 8.7% 8.1% 6.3% 13.8% 10.3% 31.8% 17.4% 24.1% 55.9% -6.1%
CHI 1-1 -5.0% 7.9 3.2% 4.1% 4.6% 4.1% 7.7% 8.2% 16.0% 7.3% 15.9% 31.9% 13.5%
DET 0-2 -14.2% 5.7 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% 2.4% 3.3% 1.1% 4.0% 7.3% -3.4%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
TB 2-0 -3.8% 8.6 6.2% 8.0% 8.5% 8.1% 7.6% 8.4% 30.8% 14.2% 16.0% 46.8% 15.3%
NO 1-1 12.9% 8.6 6.2% 7.8% 8.2% 7.6% 8.2% 8.1% 29.7% 14.0% 16.3% 46.1% 2.9%
ATL 1-1 -0.6% 7.9 2.7% 4.9% 6.0% 7.2% 5.4% 6.9% 20.7% 7.6% 12.3% 33.1% 5.8%
CAR 1-1 -0.1% 7.9 2.8% 4.8% 5.6% 5.5% 6.6% 7.5% 18.7% 7.6% 14.2% 32.8% -10.4%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LAR 2-0 22.7% 11.1 35.1% 19.4% 14.4% 11.8% 3.7% 2.9% 80.6% 54.4% 6.6% 87.2% 10.7%
SF 1-1 -9.6% 7.2 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.1% 6.0% 6.3% 9.3% 3.5% 12.3% 21.6% 4.7%
SEA 0-2 -2.3% 6.9 1.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.9% 4.9% 5.6% 8.3% 3.2% 10.6% 18.9% -11.1%
ARI 0-2 -18.2% 5.4 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.4% 3.2% 4.9% -10.4%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 1-1 13.1% 9.6 13.7% 12.1% 10.1% 8.5% 10.2% 8.4% 44.3% 25.7% 18.5% 62.9% -13.2%
MIA 2-0 2.7% 9.6 13.8% 11.5% 9.4% 8.0% 11.3% 8.7% 42.7% 25.4% 20.0% 62.7% 25.5%
NYJ 1-1 -5.6% 7.8 2.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 6.8% 7.3% 12.6% 6.0% 14.1% 26.7% -17.0%
BUF 0-2 -37.5% 3.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% -0.9%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CIN 2-0 3.9% 9.2 11.3% 10.1% 9.5% 8.3% 8.6% 7.8% 39.2% 21.4% 16.4% 55.6% 18.0%
PIT 0-1-1 13.2% 8.6 6.1% 7.0% 7.5% 7.6% 7.2% 7.3% 28.2% 13.0% 14.6% 42.8% -19.7%
BAL 1-1 7.7% 8.6 6.1% 6.8% 7.0% 6.4% 8.4% 8.1% 26.2% 12.8% 16.5% 42.7% -14.0%
CLE 0-1-1 -9.4% 6.5 0.8% 1.3% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% 6.4% 2.0% 5.7% 12.1% -8.2%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
JAX 2-0 0.4% 9.1 9.9% 10.5% 10.4% 10.2% 6.0% 6.4% 41.0% 20.4% 12.3% 53.3% 14.2%
IND 1-1 -3.3% 7.9 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% 8.5% 3.7% 5.0% 22.1% 7.3% 8.8% 30.8% 4.9%
HOU 0-2 3.8% 7.8 2.3% 4.1% 5.6% 7.3% 4.3% 5.9% 19.3% 6.5% 10.2% 29.5% -7.0%
TEN 1-1 -6.6% 7.6 2.2% 3.6% 5.0% 6.8% 3.7% 4.9% 17.7% 5.8% 8.6% 26.2% -3.4%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 2-0 8.0% 9.9 18.3% 13.9% 12.0% 9.9% 8.2% 6.9% 54.0% 32.2% 15.1% 69.1% 19.5%
DEN 2-0 -4.9% 8.3 5.0% 5.5% 5.7% 6.1% 7.0% 7.2% 22.3% 10.5% 14.2% 36.5% -1.5%
LAC 1-1 2.4% 8.3 4.2% 4.6% 4.5% 4.1% 9.1% 8.8% 17.5% 8.8% 17.8% 35.3% 9.5%
OAK 0-2 -5.4% 6.5 0.9% 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 3.1% 4.0% 6.2% 2.1% 7.1% 13.2% -6.7%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
LAR 50.2%31.3%19.3%0.5%
MIN 27.8%14.2%7.8%0.0%
NE 26.7%15.3%7.6%0.0%
KC 28.8%15.2%7.2%0.1%
PHI 19.6%9.9%5.4%0.0%
MIA 22.2%11.0%5.1%0.0%
PIT 16.6%9.1%4.6%0.0%
NO 16.1%8.1%4.6%0.0%
CIN 19.5%9.8%4.4%0.0%
GB 17.1%7.9%4.0%0.0%
JAX 18.0%8.4%3.6%0.0%
DAL 15.6%7.3%3.6%0.0%
BAL 14.6%7.6%3.5%0.0%
LAC 10.2%4.8%2.1%0.0%
TB 11.6%4.6%2.1%0.0%
WAS 9.6%4.0%1.9%0.0%
HOU 8.4%3.9%1.7%0.0%
DEN 9.5%4.1%1.6%0.0%
ATL 7.9%3.2%1.5%0.0%
CAR 8.2%3.3%1.5%0.0%
IND 7.8%3.4%1.3%0.0%
CHI 6.9%2.6%1.1%0.0%
NYJ 6.3%2.7%1.1%0.0%
TEN 6.2%2.6%1.1%0.0%
SEA 3.8%1.6%0.7%0.0%
SF 3.5%1.3%0.5%0.0%
OAK 2.8%1.2%0.5%0.0%
CLE 2.4%0.9%0.4%0.0%
DET 1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
BUF 39.1% 81.7%
NYG 11.9% 51.0%
ARI 11.5% 49.5%
DET 9.5% 44.2%
CLE 4.2% 30.3%
OAK 3.8% 26.5%
SEA 3.2% 23.2%
SF 2.3% 20.2%
TEN 1.5% 14.6%
NYJ 1.4% 13.3%
CHI 1.4% 13.2%
HOU 1.3% 12.9%
CAR 1.2% 12.2%
ATL 1.0% 11.9%
WAS 1.0% 11.5%
IND 1.1% 11.5%
LAC 0.7% 9.9%
DEN 0.5% 7.5%
BAL 0.5% 7.3%
DAL 0.4% 6.7%
PIT 0.4% 6.6%
TB 0.3% 6.1%
NO 0.3% 4.9%
PHI 0.3% 4.1%
GB 0.2% 3.7%
JAX 0.2% 3.7%
CIN 0.2% 3.2%
MIA 0.1% 2.6%
NE 0.2% 2.4%
MIN 0.1% 1.8%
KC 0.0% 1.4%
LAR 0.0% 0.5%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 4.9%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LAR vs NE 4.7%
Ndamukong Suh Reunion Special LAR vs MIA 3.4%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 2.9%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 2.2%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 1.6%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 1.6%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 1.4%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 1.4%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 1.3%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.3%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 1.2%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.9%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 0.8%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.8%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.8%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.7%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.7%
Alex Smith Reunion Special WAS vs KC 0.6%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.5%
Florida Bowl (South) TB vs MIA 0.5%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch WAS vs MIA 0.4%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 0.4%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 0.4%
Florida Bowl (North) TB vs JAX 0.4%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.3%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.3%
Queen City Challenge CAR vs CIN 0.3%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.3%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.3%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.3%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.2%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.2%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.2%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch WAS vs DEN 0.2%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch SF vs MIA 0.2%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.1%
2015 Draft Showdown TB vs TEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl 50 Rematch CAR vs DEN 0.1%
Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl SF vs CIN 0.1%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1%
Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.1%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.1%
2012 Draft Showdown SEA vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl XXIV Rematch SF vs DEN 0.1%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special SEA vs NYJ 0.1%