FO on ESPN

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FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: Niners' Playoff Chances are 50-50

Everyone thinks of San Francisco as one of the NFL's most dominant teams, so why does FOA 2014 only give them a 51 percent chance to make the playoffs this year? In an ESPN Insider article, I explain a bit about why projections are so grouped around 8-8, and why the 49ers' defense may not be as good as we think -- at least through the end of October.

13 comments, Last at 22 Dec 2014, 9:38pm by dongdong31

ESPN: Cowboys Will Again Miss Playoffs

Scott Kacsmar explains why an aging and hurting Tony Romo combined with a still-poor defense means another year of missing the playoffs in Dallas.

1 comment, Last at 08 Aug 2014, 1:16pm by Sisyphus

ESPN: Most Likely Teams to Go First to Worst

Part II of II. We actually measured here the chances of first-place teams dropping to 6-10 or worse, not their chances of finishing fourth this year, which does explain how Indianapolis can end up second on this list. Let's be honest -- even if they somehow flop to 6-10, the Colts aren't finishing last in that division. The clearly most likely first-to-worst team is Carolina.

9 comments, Last at 06 Aug 2014, 1:53pm by morganja

ESPN: Most Likely Teams to Go Worst to First

Part I of II today at ESPN Insider. Based on FO simulations, which team is most likely to go from fourth place to first place this season? The surprising answer is Buffalo, followed by Houston and Tampa Bay. In last place among the last place teams: Oakland.

29 comments, Last at 06 Aug 2014, 2:46pm by mehllageman56

ESPN: In Indy, it's Luck and Little Else

How much can one franchise quarterback do when saddled with a bad roster in a bad division? We're about to find out. (Well, again.)

ESPN: NFC West Blocking Cardinals' Path

We simulated the season moving Arizona around to every division to see what happened. The result? Their Super Bowl odds would go up 60 percent in the AFC South. It's also good these days to live in the AFC North and NFC East. The NFC West, not so much.

2 comments, Last at 31 Jul 2014, 3:14pm by willybhu

ESPN: Teams with Most Under-25 Talent

At Insider we ranked all 32 NFL teams based solely on the collective talent of their players under the age of 25. Find out which star player made the birthday cut by less than a week, and which Super Bowl XLVIII participant brings up the rear.

5 comments, Last at 28 Jul 2014, 10:52pm by LionInAZ

ESPN: FO Top 25 Prospects 2014

Here's another preview of Football Outsiders Almanac 2014 while you anxiously wait for tomorrow night's release. Once again this year, our Top 25 Prospects list is also running on ESPN Insider. This is our list of promising lower-drafted (or undrafted) young players who haven't yet gotten much playing time. This year's top five: Andre Ellington, Travis Kelce, Damontre Moore, Jordan Reed, and Terron Armstead.

ESPN: Risers and Fallers of the NFC

Today, looking at teams we think have a good chance to get better or worse in the NFC. On the rise: Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Possibly declining: Arizona, Carolina, and the surprisingly old San Francisco 49ers.

ESPN: Risers and Fallers of the AFC

Taking a look on ESPN Insider at which teams we think are on the rise or falling this season in the AFC. Moving up: Buffalo, Houston, and Pittsburgh. Moving down: Kansas City, Miami, and the New York Jets.

13 comments, Last at 19 Jul 2014, 9:26pm by Rocco