Week 1 Quick Reads
by Vince Verhei
With just one season as a starting quarterback in college, Cam Newton was supposed to be a raw product coming out of the draft, an inexperienced talent who was ill-prepared for the NFL.
Whatever. In the Carolina Panthers’ 28-21 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals yesterday, Newton became just the sixth rookie in NFL history to throw for more than 400 yards in a single game.
Total yardage can be misleading, though. Nobody questioned Tom Brady’s election as MVP last season, even though he finished just eighth in passing yards. At Football Outsiders, we measure players by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). We analyze every play of the NFL season and adjust it for down, distance, score, field position, and other factors. Players are rewarded not just for gaining yards, but also for picking up first downs – a six-yard gain on third-and-10 is worth barely any more than an incomplete pass. (We do not yet calculate Entertainment Value Above Replacement, but if we did, Newton’s air guitar solo in the end zone would probably also score highly.)
Newton finished with 150 total DYAR on Sunday. That’s an excellent figure, the second-highest of the day, but it’s not the best day a rookie ever had. Here are the top 10 rookie quarterback performances since 1992, judging by total DYAR:
| Player | Year | Team | Week | vs. | Comp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sacks | Runs | Yds | Total DYAR |
| Cade McNown | 1999 | CHI | 15 | DET | 27 | 36 | 301 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 197 |
| Matt Ryan | 2008 | ATL | 6 | CHI | 22 | 30 | 301 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 191 |
| Ryan Leaf | 1998 | SD | 8 | SEA | 25 | 49 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 178 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2003 | JAC | 13 | TB | 21 | 34 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 174 |
| Matt Ryan | 2008 | ATL | 13 | SD | 17 | 23 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 170 |
| Peyton Manning | 1998 | IND | 15 | CIN | 17 | 26 | 210 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 |
| Heath Shuler | 1994 | WAS | 15 | ARI | 16 | 27 | 287 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 165 |
| Charlie Batch | 1998 | DET | 12 | TB | 14 | 23 | 195 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 162 |
| Eli Manning | 2004 | NYG | 15 | PIT | 16 | 23 | 182 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 161 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | PIT | 16 | BAL | 14 | 19 | 221 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 156 |
| Cam Newton (13th) | 2011 | CAR | 1 | ARI | 24 | 37 | 422 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 150 |
Two things to note here. First, this is ranking by total DYAR, including passing and rushing. Newton’s passing DYAR (159) would have made the list by itself, but he finished with negative rushing value, as eight of his runs gained 3 yards or fewer. Also, look at the far right hand column. All of these quarterbacks had played at least a third of a season when they posted these elite games, and most had at least three months of on-the-job training. Nobody has come close to playing like Newton did in their first action.
Newton wasn’t just explosive against the Cardinals, he was efficient, too. Nearly half his dropbacks resulted in productive yardage, while many quarterbacks were successful less than 40 percent of the time. Newton threw for 17 first downs or touchdowns – only four quarterbacks had more (and two of them played Thursday night). Newton was productive on first (11-of-18 for 194 yards), second (9-of-11, 122 yards), and third (4-of-8, 106 yards) downs.
There will be dark days ahead for Newton. He won’t play every game against soft defenses like Arizona’s, and he’ll have to struggle through contests with multiple sacks and interceptions. It’s also possible this was a one-time fluke performance. Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf, and Heath Shuler showed that even the biggest draft busts of all time can look good for one game. For now, though, he should be celebrated. Newton’s first game was better than anyone in Charlotte had any right to expect.
As you look at the table to follow, remember that this early in the season, there are no opponent adjustments included in the DYAR totals.
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
CP/AT |
Yds |
TD |
INT |
Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
1. |
Tom Brady | NE | 32/48 |
517 |
4 |
1 |
233 |
231 |
2 |
| From the front desk of our fearless leader: "Brady does not end up near the top 10 passing DYAR games of all time. Just not efficient enough, too many incompletes." | |||||||||
2. |
Drew Brees | NO | 32/48 |
419 |
3 |
0 |
216 |
218 |
-2 |
| The problem with putting the defending Super Bowl champion in a high-profile game on Thursday night is that we don't get to enjoy them on Sunday. This week, two of the top three quarterbacks played on Thursday as the nation sat down to enjoy a phenomenal shootout to kick off the season. Brees finished ahead of Rodgers in total value, but that's because he had 13 more passes; Rodgers was better on a per-play basis. Brees was very good through three quarters (21-of-31, 269 yards, 120 DYAR), and then played obscenely well when the Saints needed him most. In the fourth quarter, he went 11-of-17 for 150 yards. That's an outstanding performance on the road, against a good defense that knew he had to pass. | |||||||||
3. |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 27/35 |
312 |
3 |
0 |
189 |
200 |
-11 |
| Rodgers did his damage early, completing 14 of 15 first-quarter passes for 188 yards and three touchdowns to three different receivers. The Packers then got conservative (well, by their standards) and Rodgers threw only 22 passes the rest of the way. | |||||||||
4. |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 17/25 |
208 |
4 |
0 |
155 |
168 |
-13 |
| Since Brees and Rodgers played Thursday night, Fitzpatrick was actually the most valuable quarterback to play Sunday. Let that sink in for a moment. Most of his basic numbers are pretty pedestrian: He went 17-of-25 for 208 yards. That's a 68 percent completion rate and 8.3 yards per pass. Good numbers, sure, but the best all day? The secret lies in Fitzpatrick's red zone performance. Inside the 20, Fitzpatrick went 4-of-6 for 24 yards and three of his four touchdowns. That worked out to 61 DYAR, better than anyone this week, including Rodgers and Brees. Fitzpatrick was also very effective in the third quarter, going 8-of-9 for 78 yards and 75 DYAR. That suggests some impressive halftime adjustments by Chan Gailey and company. | |||||||||
5. |
Cam Newton | CAR | 24/37 |
422 |
2 |
1 |
150 |
159 |
-9 |
6. |
Matt Stafford | DET | 24/33 |
305 |
3 |
1 |
144 |
144 |
0 |
| Between the 40-yard line and the end zone, Stafford went 9-of-13 for 122 yards, with no sacks or interceptions and a league-high 111 DYAR. | |||||||||
7. |
Rex Grossman | WAS | 21/34 |
305 |
2 |
0 |
128 |
128 |
0 |
| Bombs away! Grossman's average pass went 14.4 yards past the line of scrimmage, by far the deepest passer among starters in the league. (Cam Newton was second at 11.5.) | |||||||||
8. |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 17/29 |
224 |
3 |
0 |
98 |
98 |
0 |
| Flacco completed eight of his first nine passes. He hit four of his next seven, then hit four in a row, and finished with just one completion (a failed one, at that) in his last six dropbacks. Fortunately Baltimore was ahead by 25 at that point. | |||||||||
9. |
Chad Henne | MIA | 30/49 |
416 |
2 |
1 |
94 |
58 |
37 |
10. |
Philip Rivers | SD | 33/48 |
335 |
2 |
2 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
| Rivers' first and last passes in the Red Zone were both touchdowns. In between, he went 3-for-5 for 1 yard with an interception and a sack. | |||||||||
11. |
Tony Romo | DAL | 23/36 |
352 |
2 |
1 |
86 |
86 |
0 |
| Darrelle Revis disagrees with this ranking. Through three quarters, Romo went 18-of-24 for 234 yards and three sacks, and 133 DYAR. In the fourth, he went 5-of-12 for 118 yards with one sack, one interception, and -48 DYAR. | |||||||||
12. |
Josh Freeman | TB | 28/41 |
261 |
1 |
1 |
81 |
77 |
4 |
| Freeman's pass plays by quarter: Four in the first, 12 in the second, one in the third, 26 in the fourth. His average pass came with 7.7 yards needed for a first down, lower than any other starter except Donovan McNabb. | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
CP/AT |
Yds |
TD |
INT |
Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
13. |
Kevin Kolb | ARI | 18/27 |
309 |
2 |
0 |
74 |
74 |
0 |
| It was a slow start for Kolb, who was sacked twice in his first five dropbacks. He rallied though, and in the final three quarters of the game he went 14-of-21 for 257 yards and no picks, including five 20-yard plays. | |||||||||
14. |
Michael Vick | PHI | 14/31 |
187 |
2 |
0 |
64 |
26 |
38 |
| An example of halftime adjustments: Vick had 27 first-half pass plays, tied with Philip Rivers for most of the league. Of course, he wasn't particularly good on those pass plays, and so he threw only seven passes in the second half (including one sack). He added three second-half runs for 49 yards. He had five ten-yard runs in the game, tied with Houston's Ben Tate for the most in the league. | |||||||||
15. |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 17/24 |
220 |
1 |
2 |
54 |
55 |
-2 |
| In 11 drives, the Texans only ran 10 third-down plays, including just six passes for Schaub. He converted three of them, but he also threw an interception. That's going to skew his third-down DVOA for weeks. | |||||||||
16. |
Matt Hasselbeck | TEN | 21/33 |
263 |
2 |
1 |
53 |
49 |
4 |
| Hasselbeck on throws to Kenny Britt: 5-of-10, 136 yards, 89.8% DVOA (even with an interception). To all other receivers: 16-of-24, 141 yards, no interceptions, 15.2% DVOA. (He was also sacked twice.) | |||||||||
17. |
Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 26/44 |
335 |
2 |
1 |
42 |
58 |
-16 |
| King of clutch? Sanchez converted six third downs. Going into Monday night, only Drew Brees and Josh Freeman converted more. On the other hand, his 14 dropbacks on third down were one fewer than anyone else had, and not one of those dropbacks came with more than ten yards to go. | |||||||||
18. |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 22/32 |
310 |
2 |
1 |
28 |
28 |
0 |
| Cutler converted only five of 15 third-down plays, while he was sacked twice and intercepted once. It wasn't just because of long yardage, either. His interception came on third-and-four, and he failed to convert four other times with less than 10 yards to go. | |||||||||
19. |
Alex Smith | SF | 15/20 |
124 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
14 |
13 |
| Talk about stat-padding: 15-of-20 sounds like a good day, but seven of those completions were failed plays by our standards. | |||||||||
20. |
Jason Campbell | OAK | 13/22 |
105 |
1 |
0 |
25 |
10 |
15 |
21. |
Kyle Orton | DEN | 24/45 |
304 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
13 |
6 |
22. |
Luke McCown | JAC | 17/24 |
175 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
5 |
7 |
| McCown's DVOA on deep balls (more than 15 yards downfield) was an ungodly 462.8%. Of course, he only threw one deep pass, but it was complete to Mike Thomas for 26 yards. And it was on third-and-8, too. | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
CP/AT |
Yds |
TD |
INT |
Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
23. |
Bruce Gradkowski | CIN | 5/12 |
92 |
1 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
| Talk about boom-and-bust. Gradkowski had completions of 22, 22, and 41 yards. His other ten dropbacks produced two completions (neither successful), one sack, and zero total yards. | |||||||||
24. |
Sam Bradford | STL | 17/30 |
188 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
34 |
-25 |
| This is what happens when you throw to your wide receivers against Philadelphia: 9-of-16 for 100 yards, only seven successful plays. (Those numbers do not include the 41-yard pass interference penalty Brandon Gibson drew against Nnamdi Asomugha). | |||||||||
25. |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 31/46 |
319 |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
| Wasn't Julio Jones supposed to bring the big play to Atlanta? Only four of Ryan's 14 first-half completions gained more than ten yards. He had nine ten-yard completions in the second half, but by then they were down by two touchdowns the entire way. | |||||||||
26. |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 10/15 |
81 |
1 |
0 |
-13 |
-13 |
0 |
| Dalton had two sacks on first down, but when he had time to throw, he hit 6-of-6 for 68 yards, plus a 4-yard DPI call. On all other downs: 4-of-9 for 13 yards, plus a sack. | |||||||||
27. |
Eli Manning | NYG | 19/32 |
268 |
0 |
1 |
-28 |
-37 |
9 |
| The Giants' day in a nutshell: Eli Manning did not throw a single pass in the Red Zone, but he had a league-high 11 plays in what we call the Deep Zone (inside his own 20). Those 11 plays included an interception and a sack, and only six completions for 98 yards. | |||||||||
28. |
Kerry Collins | IND | 17/31 |
197 |
1 |
0 |
-47 |
-47 |
0 |
| Nine times Kerry Collins dropped back on third or fourth down, and nine times he failed to pick up a new set of downs. Highlights included a three-yard completion with 17 yards to go, a two-yard gain with 11 yards to go, a 20-yard loss on an intentional grounding penalty, and a sack-fumble on third-and-5. | |||||||||
29. |
Colt McCoy | CLE | 19/40 |
213 |
2 |
1 |
-56 |
-65 |
8 |
| For whatever reason, McCoy was miserable on second down: 3-for-14 for 24 yards, plus a sack for -89 DYAR. | |||||||||
30. |
Tarvaris Jackson | SEA | 21/37 |
197 |
2 |
1 |
-62 |
-62 |
0 |
| Jackson was surprisingly effective on short routes (within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage), completing 20 of 30 passes for 193 yards and 99 DYAR. He went 0-for-5 on deep balls, however. | |||||||||
31. |
Donovan McNabb | MIN | 7/15 |
39 |
1 |
1 |
-78 |
-92 |
15 |
| By DVOA, McNabb was much worse than either Matt Cassel or Ben Roethlisberger, but he ranks higher in DYAR because he had fewer opportunities to suck. The ugly totals: 17 dropbacks, two sacks, one interception, seven incompletions, three failed completions, four successful plays, 28 net yards. | |||||||||
32. |
Matt Cassel | KC | 22/36 |
119 |
1 |
1 |
-94 |
-94 |
0 |
| Missing Tony Moeaki and Jon Baldwin didn't help. Cassel threw nine passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. All nine were complete, but they totaled only six yards, with one successful play and six catches for negative yardage. He also converted only three of 13 third-downs. | |||||||||
33. |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 22/41 |
280 |
1 |
3 |
-120 |
-125 |
5 |
| You probably know the worst details of Roethlisberger's day -- the four sacks, two fumbles (both lost) and three interceptions. Even when he hung on to the ball, though, Roethlisberger failed to keep drives alive. In nine third-down drop backs, Roethlisberger had as many sacks (two) as he had conversions for a new set of downs. He wasn't much better on first downs, completing 9 of 18 passes for 137 yards. Three of his interceptions and two of his sacks also came on first down. Oddly, Roethlisberger played very well on second down, going 11-of-16 for 123 yards with no sacks or picks. That includes his 22-yard pass to Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall fumbled at the end of that play, but that's reflected in his stats, not Roethlisberger's. | |||||||||
| Five most valuable running backs | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
1. |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 122 |
1 |
15 |
1 |
66 |
46 |
20 |
| Through three quarters, McCoy hadn't done much on the ground, gaining only 27 yards on his 11 carries, with no 10-plus-yard runs. He actually had negative rushing DYAR at that point. Then came the fourth quarter, and while he carried only four times in the final period, he made those carries count: an 11-yard gain on second-and-10; a 17-yard gain on first-and-10; a 49-yard touchdown; and an 18-yard gain on first-and-10. McCoy benefited greatly from the Michael Vick factor, as Rams defenders in fear of bootleg passes chased down the Eagles quarterback even after McCoy had crossed the line of scrimmage with the ball. McCoy also got good value in limited touches in the passing game. His two receptions produced a touchdown from third-and-goal at the 7, and an 8-yard gain on second-and-9. | |||||||||
2. |
Mike Tolbert | SD | 35 |
1 |
58 |
2 |
58 |
8 |
50 |
| How do you make the top five running backs with a 2.9-yard average rush? By catching all nine of the passes thrown your way. Two of those catches lost yardage, but the other seven were all successful plays, including three first downs and two touchdowns. | |||||||||
3. |
Ray Rice | BAL | 107 |
1 |
42 |
1 |
52 |
28 |
25 |
| In his last three games against the Steelers (including the playoffs), Rice had collected a total of only 84 rushing yards, so you know he enjoyed this one. His 36-yarder on the first play of the game was longer than any run the Steelers gave up in 2010. He averaged less than four yards a carry after that, but he did convert three third downs. He converted two more third downs as a receiver. | |||||||||
4. |
Matt Forte | CHI | 68 |
0 |
90 |
1 |
51 |
11 |
40 |
| Forte did most of his damage as a receiver, with a 56-yard touchdown catch and another reception for 23 yards. He had six straight successful runs in the second half, including a third-down conversion and a 27-yard burst. | |||||||||
5. |
LaDainian Tomlinson | NYJ | 16 |
0 |
73 |
0 |
39 |
-1 |
40 |
| Tomlinson had only one successful run in five carries, a seven-yarder in the fourth quarter. He caught six out of seven passes though, and five of those catches were successes, including 11- and 32-yard gains. Even his "unsuccessful" reception was a five-yard gain on second-and-9. | |||||||||
| Least valuable running back | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
1. |
Frank Gore | SF | 59 |
0 |
19 |
0 |
-41 |
-42 |
0 |
| Nearly half of Gore's 59 rushing yards came on two carries, a 12-yard run in the first quarter and a 16-yard run in the fourth. His other 22 carries totaled only 31 yards with no first downs or touchdowns. He was stuffed for no gain or a loss seven times. He particularly struggled in the red zone, gaining only 6 yards on seven carries. He was a little better as a receiver, though; although he had no first downs in three receptions, he did manage a 12-yard gain on second-and-14 and a 6-yarder on first-and-10. The 49ers were able to beat the Seahawks thanks largely to late-game heroics from Ted Ginn, but that didn't do much for fantasy players who have Gore on their teams. | |||||||||
| Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rec |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Total DYAR |
|
1. |
Steve Smith | CAR | 8 |
11 |
178 |
22.2 |
2 |
72 |
|
| After the debacle of 2010, it must be nice for Smith to play with legitimate talent at quarterback this year. Smith's 77-yard touchdown was his only third-down play of the game. Instead, the Panthers went to him early in drives. Smith produced to the tune of four receptions for 59 yards on six first-down targets, and three catches for 42 yards on four second-down throws. Seven of Smith's targets came 13 or more yards downfield, but they also tried to get him the ball in space, twice throwing him passes behind the line. Smith turned those throws into 8- and 5-yard gains. | |||||||||
2. |
Early Doucet | ARI | 3 |
3 |
105 |
35.0 |
1 |
56 |
|
| After the debacle of 2010, it must be nice for Doucet to play with legitimate talent at quarterback this year. Doucet was only thrown three passes on Sunday, but all three were in critical situations. With the score tied, he caught a 16-yard pass on third-and-8, then a 19-yarder on third-and-four. Later, he caught a game-tying 70-yard touchdown pass on third-and-seven. He did most of his damage on the ground — the three passes averaged just nine yards in the air. | |||||||||
3. |
Greg Jennings | GB | 7 |
8 |
89 |
12.7 |
1 |
54 |
|
| After the debacle of 2010, it must be nice ... well, I guess that narrative ends here. Jennings wasn't terribly explosive against the Saints (his longest catch was 22 yards), but all seven of his receptions gained successful yardage. He caught five first downs or touchdowns, and converted a pair of third downs. | |||||||||
4. |
Kenny Britt | TEN | 5 |
10 |
136 |
27.2 |
2 |
52 |
|
| It usually takes a Catch Rate higher than 50 percent to get into the Top Five, but all five of Britt's catches were either first downs or touchdowns, including an 80-yard score. The Titans threw either short to Britt or very deep. Three of his targets were within five yards of the line of scrimmage, but five were at least 20 yards downfield. | |||||||||
5. |
Scott Chandler | BUF | 5 |
5 |
63 |
12.6 |
2 |
51 |
|
| The second half of the legendary Fitzpatrick-to-Chandler connection, all five of Chandlers' catches gained successful yardage. He was sort of the anti-Britt: All five of his targets came 4 to 14 yards past the line of scrimmage. Both of his touchdowns came on third down in the red zone. | |||||||||
| Least valuable wide receiver or tight end | |||||||||
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Rec |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Total DYAR |
|
1. |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 2 |
9 |
14 |
7.0 |
0 |
-44 |
|
| Seven incompletes in nine targets is bad enough, but even when he caught the ball it wasn't necessarily good news — one of his catches was a one-yard loss on second-and-10. On the bright side, he caught a 15-yarder on second-and-10 when the Steelers were down by 25 points in the fourth quarter. So there's that. | |||||||||
Comments
88 comments, Last at 15 Sep 2011, 3:21am
#1 by Temo // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:11am
If there's no defensive adjustments, shouldn't DYAR just be YAR? Or is that too mockable?
#26 by AD (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:27pm
Yes
#27 by andrew // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:34pm
Tampa Bay would dominate the YAR ratings.
#28 by Keith(1) (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:39pm
Actually, the most valuable player would obviously be Tony Scheffler by the YAR rating.
#29 by Thomas_beardown // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:41pm
Oakland would put in a strong showing too.
#54 by Danish Denver-Fan // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:40pm
No amount of wordplay will make the Raiders dominate YAR.
#78 by justanothersteve // Sep 14, 2011 - 11:55am
With "Talk Like a Pirate Day" coming next week, I'm sure there will be lots of competition for best YAR.
#2 by asg (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:11am
The Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford comments are juxtaposed -- Ryan's comment is in Bradford's stat entry, and vice versa.
#3 by jklps // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:12am
The texts under Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford look to be switched.
#4 by Temo // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:12am
Also: By DVOA, McNabb was much worse than either Matt Cassel or Ben Roethlisberger, but he ranks higher in DYAR because he had fewer opportunities to suck.
I enjoyed that writing.
#18 by justanothersteve // Sep 13, 2011 - 12:33pm
+1
#36 by ztnjv // Sep 13, 2011 - 2:07pm
I was rolling.
#5 by Rupps (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:14am
You have the bradford and matt ryan write-ups mixed up.
#6 by are-tee // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:15am
Looks like you transposed the commentary for Bradford and Ryan.
#7 by Dean // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:19am
Hey - did you know that the Bradford and Ryan commentaries are switched?
#13 by drobviousso // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:35am
Someone should say something
#8 by smutsboy // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:22am
Has anyone notice the Bradford-Ryan thing yet?
#9 by nat // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:29am
Brady does not end up near the top 10 passing DYAR games of all time. Just not efficient enough, too many incompletes.
Incompletes? How about he threw an interception. That's probably much more important to DYAR than avoiding a few incompletes, n'est-ce pas?
How many of the top ten DYAR games included an interception? How many included a 67% or lower completion rate?
#10 by Rivers McCown // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:30am
Bradford and Ryan aren't in the right spots.
Oh wait, I just fixed that.
#11 by RickD // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:32am
If you're going to include Brady's stats, you might want to modify the text under Brees that says that the top two QBs played on Thursday night.
Oh, and I've heard tale of some Bradford-Ryan thing. :)
#12 by Aaron Schatz // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:35am
There will be more hiccups than usual this year as everybody gets used to doing new columns -- Vince taking over Quick Reads, Danny taking over the fantasy matchups column, etc. So bear with us.
#65 by BroncosGuyAgain // Sep 13, 2011 - 9:04pm
It is a minor hiccup more than overcome with improved writing. Good job, Vince. I look forward to reading this weekly.
#14 by bengt (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:44am
I believe that three of Antonio Browns' incompletions came in the last four downs of the game, with Roethlisberger uncatchably throwing (intentionally to avoid another interception?) one yard out of the end zone.
#15 by RichC (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:50am
I'm surprised none of the Pats TEs/WRs show up on the list.
#16 by Dean // Sep 13, 2011 - 12:13pm
Best guess? Possibly for the same reason Brady isn't going to be on an all-time list for this game. Too many incompletes.
#17 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2011 - 12:28pm
I think I'm going to switch Ryan's and Bradford's comments every week as a running joke on myself.
#19 by nat // Sep 13, 2011 - 12:41pm
-->>Here is an article about top DYAR QB games from a 2008 article.
Interestingly, it does feature a Scott Mitchell game with an interception and a 66.6% completion rate. So something else pushed that one higher on the list. My guess: opponent adjustments and a boatload of situational bonuses. Otherwise, it looks statistically like Brady's latest game but with fewer yards per attempt and fewer yards total.
#20 by Led // Sep 13, 2011 - 12:45pm
I assume Sanchez's -16 rushing DYAR is largely because of his fumble. That's a little bit misleading because it was a free play because Dallas was offsides. Had the Jets not recovered the fumble it would've been no play and 1st and 5. Sanchez dove for the first down, fumbling in the process, in a way he almost certaintly would not have if there was no flag. That will obviously wash out over time. I'm reasonably pleased with Sanchez's performance despite the stupid INT and stupider strip sack. A passing performance by Sanchez in the top half of the league (if just barely) on a weekly basis should result in a lot of wins.
#34 by ScottyB (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:54pm
+1
#60 by Temo // Sep 13, 2011 - 5:47pm
Edit: nvm.
#21 by Alexander // Sep 13, 2011 - 12:49pm
Any list where Cade McNown ranks #1 is very suspect in my eyes.
#25 by Raiderjoe // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:15pm
Even blind bear can find salmon pncd in while or if not then get one from friend
#43 by BJR // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:10pm
LOL
#44 by Kevin from Philly // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:14pm
Is that supposed to be "salmon once in [a] while" or "salmon poached in wine"? 'Cause the second option sounds pretty good.
#72 by zlionsfan // Sep 14, 2011 - 8:50am
True, but did the Lions have to be the ones holding the salmon? (And that was a playoff-bound Lions team as well.)
#33 by Marko // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:52pm
I had a similar thought. I remember that game. While the stats looked impressive, and some Bears fans were excited by it, I was completely underwhelmed. Two of the TD passes were very fluky and his passes had no zip on them. He did not look like a long-term solution for the Bears.
#22 by Ben S (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:05pm
Surprised not to see Welker on this list. 8 catches, 12 targets, 160 yards, 2 TD.
#35 by ScottyB (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:56pm
A 99 yard catch isn't given much, if any, more weight than a 20 yard catch.
#48 by BJR // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:23pm
In that particular situation then yes. The Pats were already two scores up with 5 minutes remaining so any first down would have more or less iced the game, and the TD was irrelevant to the final outcome. In any normal circumstance where the game is still competitive, a 99 yard catch should clearly be given quite a lot more weight than a 20 yard catch. Does anybody know to what extent, if any, that play was discounted because it was effectively garbage time?
#55 by Stats are for losers (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:48pm
There were at least two times that Brady missed him, and a third that was nullified by defensive offsides.
In an unrelated note, is Morelli's crew known for calling holding on every frickin' play?
#23 by Ben S (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:06pm
Surprised not to see Welker on this list. 8 catches, 12 targets, 160 yards, 2 TD.
#24 by ammek // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:07pm
"Between the 40-yard line and the end zone, Stafford went 9-of-13 for 122 yards…"
Whose 40-yard line?
Freeman: "His average pass came with 7.7 yards needed for a first down, lower than any other starter except Donovan McNabb."
Fewer?
#30 by tgt2 (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:47pm
No, he's trying to emulate Bret Saberhagen.
#37 by Anonymous454545 (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 2:09pm
I don't get the Bret Saberhagen reference. However, my favorite insanely dominant stat comparison is Wins > Walks for a pitcher. Saberhagen, Cone, David Wells. All did it (or came close) in the modern era, and I think that's even more impressive than Brady's ridiculous TD-int ratio last year.
My cousin also had a season like that in college and I couldn't be more proud. Throw strikes young man!
#67 by MC2 // Sep 13, 2011 - 9:48pm
Maddux also had a couple of years where he came very close to that, with only 1 or 2 more BBs than Ws.
#85 by Bowl Game Anomaly // Sep 14, 2011 - 10:24pm
I recall Curt Schilling having a year where he almost pulled it off.
#73 by zlionsfan // Sep 14, 2011 - 8:51am
Dan Quisenberry, perhaps.
#31 by Parmenides // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:49pm
That's what happens when you single cover Steve Smith with a quarterback who can throw the ball, this has been proven in the league for a number of years.
#47 by Kevin from Philly // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:18pm
Well, no wonder. I'm sure if you used a QB (whether he can throw the ball or not) to single cover ANY WR, that WR would probably have a good day.
#50 by Thomas_beardown // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:30pm
I bet Vick would make a reasonable cover man.
#71 by FrontRunningPhinsFan // Sep 14, 2011 - 8:35am
Please don't turn this into ANOTHER Irrational Vick vs. Revis thread.
#79 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 14, 2011 - 12:14pm
I dare you, sir, to throw to any WR covered by Sammy Baugh.
(Because that WR would be covered by a corpse, and that's just gross)
#57 by commissionerleaf // Sep 13, 2011 - 5:08pm
On the first long TD, they didn't single cover Steve Smith. There was no defender who could legitimately be considered "in coverage" when the pass was (under)thrown. I think the corner was in the process of passing Smith to the deep safety when the breakdown in coverage occurred. That or Steve Smith is actually more than 50% faster than the cornerback, and had in fact covered 30 yards while the CB only covered 20.
Props to Newton for a big game, but his pass to Smith was the same one that Orton had picked off Monday night; an underthrown fly route where the cornerback held in a short zone and the receiver was passed to the safety. From TV coverage, it looked like Arizona may have had only one deep safety, where it was pretty clear that Oakland was in Cover 2 or a permutation thereof. Again - TV coverage so no real way to tell.
#32 by Thomas_beardown // Sep 13, 2011 - 1:49pm
Sanchez praised for converting 6 of 14 3rd downs, while Cutler is criticized for converting 5 of 15. Those numbers don't see awfully far apart to me. Also, I believe one of his sacks on 3rd down was when the Bears were running out the clock and a sack was better than a incomplete as it kept the clock running. I'd really like to see DVOA account for this some day.
I was going to say that Cutler's day looked surprisingly low to me, but looking over the other game it looks like a lot of QBs had very good days throwing the ball while Cutler's game was kind of average in comparison and 18th is very close to average.
#38 by Led // Sep 13, 2011 - 2:23pm
It's 43% vs. 33%. That's fairly significant on a percentage basis, but it's an open question whether it's a big deal in the context of a single game.
#39 by White Rose Duelist // Sep 13, 2011 - 2:25pm
So who were the top running backs in terms of, you know, running? Over 65% of the DYAR for running backs on the list is from receiving,
#40 by Jimmy // Sep 13, 2011 - 2:34pm
My only advice would be to get used to it because it happens almost every week.
#58 by dbostedo // Sep 13, 2011 - 5:23pm
Given the passing league that the NFL has become, it definitely makes sense for anyone to start thinking of running backs as simply "backs" and to realize that the most valuable ones might not be the guy piling up 1500 yards rushing. I know that was always somewhat true, but it seems to be more true every year.
#74 by Mr Shush // Sep 14, 2011 - 10:18am
Although last year the rushing champion was also the receiving (and overall) DYAR leader . . .
#61 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2011 - 7:20pm
In rushing only:
1. McCoy (46)
2. Fred Jackson (33)
3. Cedric Benson (29)
4. Beanie Wells (29)
5. Ray Rice (28)
#41 by Will Allen // Sep 13, 2011 - 2:59pm
Clearly, the Vikings made a titanic error in replacing Tavaris Jackson with Donovan McNabb, although it should be noted that once one makes the "Bernard Berrian dropped the one opportunity to improve DYAR on one play" adjustment, the 31 and 30 positions may have been reversed.
Paging Mr. Gus Ferotte, Paging Mr. Gus Ferotte, please pick up the white courtesy phone.....
#42 by MilkmanDanimal // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:06pm
Bad news, when he ran to get it he slammed his head into the phone booth. Concussion, out for two weeks.
#51 by Will Allen // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:36pm
Whew! I thought you were going to tell me he was tied up in depositions for a month, after being accused of sending cell phone pictures of 'lil Gus!
Super Bowl, here we come!!!!
#59 by Marko // Sep 13, 2011 - 5:45pm
Am I the only one who read the last sentence and thought, "No, the white phone."
#45 by John (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:17pm
Wait, where's Peyton?
Sigh. Gonna be a looooong year.
Also, look at the far right hand column.
That should be 4th column; I assume they were re-ordered at some point.
#46 by John (not verified) // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:18pm
Bah, that should have been italicized; forgot that the i tag doesn't work here. Let's try again: Also, look at the far right hand column.
#49 by Thomas_beardown // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:30pm
Your not supposed to use the i tag anywhere anymore. It's been replaced by the em tag.
#75 by bengt (not verified) // Sep 14, 2011 - 10:20am
But what John (not verified) is looking for is the <cite> tag.
#52 by xtimmygx // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:37pm
I don't know what thread to put it in, so I'm just gonna do it here, but coaches misusing timeouts has to be one of the things that pisses me off most when watching football. Why in the hell did John Fox call a timeout at 2:05 left in the 4th quarter last night. I'm pretty certain saving 40 seconds is a lot more important than 5, if they hadn't used that timeout then they would have probably gotten the ball back with at least 30 seconds.
#56 by Danish Denver-Fan // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:50pm
You're certainly preaching to the choire(sp?) here. I'm not used to thinking fast on the spot, but these are smart people - why is it this hard?
#62 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2011 - 8:04pm
Makes no difference. This isn't college. The two-minute warning stops the clock on the next play. So regardless of TO order, he's down 1 TO and there's like 1:55 on the clock. Calling the timeout first, though, wards off a possible super-long Barry Sanders-special running play that bleeds like 10-12 seconds or so.
#66 by BroncosGuyAgain // Sep 13, 2011 - 9:20pm
Actually, it is a huge difference.
Calling the timeout clearly saves only 5 seconds as the clock would stop at 2:00 anyway. The opportunity cost is not, on future plays, being able to save 40 seconds (well, realistically, 38 seconds) of rundown after a play on which the clock is not otherwise stopped.
You are correct on one point. This isn't college. In college ball, it would not have been colossally stupid.
#68 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2011 - 10:22pm
The clock will stop at 2:00 (or very close, a live play runs the clock down below 2:00 and then creates a timeout) regardless.
Oakland had 2nd-8 or something like that at 2:05. If Fox calls a TO, 2nd-8 occurs at 2:05. Lets say Denver actually tackled, and Oakland gets a 4-yd rush. Now 3rd-4 is at 2:00. Let's say Oakland rushed for 2, and then decides to punt after a delay of game. Now we have a punt on 4th-2 at 1:20.
Oakland had 2nd-8 or something like that at 2:05. If Fox does not call a TO, 2nd-8 occurs at 2:00. Lets say Denver actually tackled, and Oakland gets a 4-yd rush. Now 3rd-4 is at 1:55. Fox calls a timeout. Let's say Oakland rushed for 2, and then decides to punt after a delay of game. Now we have a punt on 4th-2 at 1:15.
By not waiting, Fox saves roughly 5 seconds, or time for one extra pass.
Yours is the kind of math that wants to start Tebow over two competent QBs.
#69 by Dennis // Sep 13, 2011 - 11:42pm
The point that is missing from your analysis is that by calling the TO at 2:05, Fox gives Oakland a choice to run or pass on 2nd and 8. If he lets it go to the two minute warning, Oakland won't risk an incompletion, they'll run to force Denver to use the TO after the play. With 2:05 left, an incompletion will almost always still take it to the two minute warning, so passing becomes a reasonable option for Oakland.
So I would say that Fox did err by calling the TO at that point. But it was moot because Denver couldn't stop the Raiders on the next play anyway.
#80 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 14, 2011 - 12:19pm
Passing leaves Oakland with the possibility of an incompletion before the 2:00 warning, which gives Fox a free time out. Also, Oakland has 2 quality RBs, but Jason Campbell to Heyward-Bey in the passing attack. In that situation, it's far more likely for Oakland to rush. Which in retrospect, they did.
#84 by Dennis // Sep 14, 2011 - 6:12pm
Yes, there is a chance of an incompletion in less than 5 seconds, and yes, Oakland has a much better running game than passing game. But the TO there still makes passing an option, whereas calling it after the 2 minute warning it is not. Even if there's just a 10% chance of the offense passing on the play, it's still something that needs to be considered in the decision process when the alternative is an almost 0% chance of a pass.
#86 by Jerry // Sep 14, 2011 - 11:57pm
Isn't there a significantly higher chance of a turnover on a pass? If I'm trailing, I'm happy to see the ball in the air.
#88 by Marko // Sep 15, 2011 - 3:21am
Or the ball on the ground after the QB is strip sacked or blindsided (as in Troy Polamalu vs. Joe Flacco last season).
#87 by Mountain Time … // Sep 15, 2011 - 1:05am
You could have found a better discussion for this. Audibles, perhaps?
#53 by BaronFoobarstein // Sep 13, 2011 - 3:37pm
Are the (D)VOA numbers for all of these players available? I've consistently found it to be a better barometer than DYAR.
#63 by Joseph // Sep 13, 2011 - 8:05pm
No D yet for DVOA, but I think for one game, it's easy for a guy like the Bills TE to have an insane DVOA, and other little used receivers/RB's to have >100% DVOA, when someone else actually did more. Over the course of a season, DVOA is better--but not on a single game basis. Even single season DVOA is somewhat subject to high volatility. (Great example--Devery Henderson of the Saints was #1 in DVOA in 2008, and Robert Meachem of the Saints in 2009. This is a function of their QB and the way they are used, not because they are the best WR--even on their own team!)
#64 by BaronFoobarstein // Sep 13, 2011 - 8:15pm
Granted for receivers, but for a guy who is the majority of his position for a team, like a QB or most HBs, DVOA tells you how the guy played without getting out of whack because of how much a guy was used.
#77 by Joseph // Sep 14, 2011 - 10:58am
For QB's, you're right--DVOA normally tells a better picture than DYAR. For RB's, pretty much the same.
This is why FO has minimum #'s to be listed in its seasonal rankings. Kind of hard to do that for an individual game, which is what was asked for originally.
#81 by Mr Shush // Sep 14, 2011 - 12:47pm
Can't agree for RBs, and feel even for QBs it tends to under-rate guys who have to carry their offense versus ones who can rely on a strong running game bringing safeties into the box.
#83 by BaronFoobarstein // Sep 14, 2011 - 4:20pm
If RB DYAR and DVOA generally tells a similar story I think that says more about how RBs are being used than about how DVOA and DYAR work. It's not that hard to give a minimum carry per game value, but what was asked for initially wasn't stop giving DYAR and start giving DVOA, it was just start giving DVOA.
#70 by the K // Sep 14, 2011 - 4:16am
The comment about Chan Gailey's halftime adjustments were pretty spot on. Despite the big first half lead, I thought the Bills did some shaky things, but caught a couple breaks for the nice lead. They absolutely jumped all over the Chiefs in every phase of the game in the second half though.
#76 by prs130 (not verified) // Sep 14, 2011 - 10:58am
air guitar? more like air ukelele. his hands were too close together. rookie mistake.
#82 by mrgeof // Sep 14, 2011 - 1:58pm
He was playing the high notes. Like Bill and Ted. And Eddie Van Halen.