Quick Reads

The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 10 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

In a Quick Reads comment concerning terrible quarterbacks last week, Quick Reader "RevBackjoy" referred to Ryan Fitzpatrick's six-interception outing against Kansas City in 2016, which threatened to be the worst single-game DYAR for a quarterback on record, depending on how end-of-season opponent adjustments turned out. It then occurred to me that it had been several years since we had updated our all-time lists of best and worst games for quarterbacks. Then Ben Roethlisberger went out on Thursday night and tore the Panthers apart, throwing for five touchdowns in only 25 pass attempts. That's the kind of monster game you'd expect to find on an all-time leaderboard, so I spent the weekend compiling and updating the record books, then sat back and waited for Roethlisberger's numbers to roll in on Sunday night.

Roethlisberger's final statline against Carolina: 22-of-25 for 328 yards with five touchdowns, no interceptions, and one sack, plus two runs for 28 more yards. That's against Carolina, which had been a middle-of-the-pack pass defense, so opponent adjustments were unlikely to drag it down very far. Naturally, Roethlisberger's game was the best of Week 10 -- but imagine my surprise when it turned out to be just the fourth-best game this season, behind Jared Goff's performance against Minnesota in Week 4, Fitzpatrick's (of all people) showing against New Orleans in Week 1, and Patrick Mahomes' exploits against Pittsburgh in Week 2. With updated opponent adjustments, there have been 12 games this season where a quarterback has surpassed 200 combined passing and rushing DYAR. Roethlisberger and Fitzpatrick have done it twice each, as have Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, and Matt Ryan.

Best Quarterback Games, Total DYAR, Weeks 1-10 2018
Player Team Wk CP/AT Yds TD Int Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
Jared Goff LAR 4 26/33 466 5 0 1 288 285 3 MIN
Ryan Fitzpatrick TB 1 21/28 417 4 0 0 267 239 28 NO
Patrick Mahomes KC 9 23/31 375 3 1 2 264 260 4 CLE
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 22/25 328 5 0 1 264 250 14 CAR
Patrick Mahomes KC 2 23/28 326 6 0 1 255 248 7 PIT
Mitchell Trubisky CHI 4 19/26 354 6 0 1 234 210 23 TB
Drew Brees NO 9 25/36 346 4 0 0 221 215 6 LAR
Matt Ryan ATL 4 29/39 419 3 0 3 214 216 -2 CIN
Drew Brees NO 10 22/25 265 3 0 0 213 206 7 CIN
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2 39/60 452 3 0 1 211 203 7 KC
Matt Ryan ATL 3 26/35 374 5 0 3 207 207 0 NO
Ryan Fitzpatrick TB 2 27/33 402 4 1 2 206 206 0 PHI

Keep in mind the 2018 season is still ongoing and opponent adjustments will continue to fluctuate. For the most part, though, we know which defenses are good and which are bad, and these numbers aren't likely to change much between now and Week 17.

For now, at least, Goff's big game slips in to the top 20 regular-season games since 1989:

Best Quarterback Games, Total DYAR, 1989-2018
Player Team Year Wk CP/AT Yds TD Int Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2014 8 40/49 526 6 0 0 385 391 -6 IND
Trent Green KC 2002 4 24/34 328 5 0 0 347 327 20 MIA
Randall Cunningham MIN 1998 5 20/32 442 4 0 0 311 332 -22 GB
Marc Bulger STL 2002 10 36/47 453 4 0 0 309 309 0 SD
Tom Brady NE 2017 2 30/39 447 3 0 2 303 302 1 NO
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2009 15 29/46 503 3 0 5 299 300 -1 GB
Scott Mitchell DET 1995 13 30/45 410 4 1 3 298 298 0 MIN
Tom Brady NE 2007 11 32/39 373 5 0 0 298 299 -1 BUF
Drew Brees NO 2009 6 23/30 369 4 0 0 297 294 3 NYG
Tom Brady NE 2009 6 29/34 380 6 0 2 294 294 0 TEN
Philip Rivers LACH 2017 12 27/33 434 3 0 0 294 294 0 DAL
Steve Young SF 1991 17 21/32 338 3 0 0 292 258 34 CHI
Drew Brees NO 2011 15 32/40 412 5 0 0 291 290 1 MIN
Tom Brady NE 2007 7 21/25 354 6 0 1 290 290 0 MIA
Jared Goff LAR 2018 4 26/33 466 5 0 1 288 285 3 MIN
Mark Rypien WAS 1991 11 16/31 442 6 0 0 287 278 10 ATL
Tom Brady NE 2011 12 24/34 361 3 0 1 283 271 13 PHI
Drew Brees NO 2007 9 35/49 445 3 0 1 283 282 0 JAC
Peyton Manning IND 2004 7 28/38 372 3 0 1 282 282 0 JAC
Rich Gannon OAK 2000 17 26/32 230 5 0 0 281 268 13 CAR

So Roethlisberger does have the best regular-season game on record, but it's his 2014 game against Indianapolis, not this week's game against Carolina. Remember that DYAR is a counting stat, and Roethlisberger just didn't have enough opportunities to produce on Thursday. He had 263 DYAR in 25 passes, one sack, and two runs, a ratio of 9.41 DYAR per play. Goff, in the best total game of the year, only averaged 8.26 DYAR per play. Only three of the top 20 games in total DYAR averaged more DYAR per play than Roethlisberger did against the Panthers. (The highest of those, by the way, was Brady, who averaged 11.2 yards per play against Miami in Week 7 of 2017. Nobody else in this table even hit double digits.)

We have compiled a list of 399 games where a quarterback accumulated at least 200 DYAR since 1989. Here's a look at the 27 quarterbacks with at least five 200-DYAR games:

QBs, Most 200-DYAR Games, 1989-2018
Name Total 2018*
Peyton Manning 31
Tom Brady 31
Drew Brees 29 2
Brett Favre 13
Steve Young 13
Philip Rivers 12
Aaron Rodgers 11
Carson Palmer 10
Ben Roethlisberger 9 2
Warren Moon 9
Kurt Warner 8
Trent Green 8
Boomer Esiason 7
Randall Cunningham 7
Troy Aikman 7
Brad Johnson 6
Joe Montana 6
John Elway 6
Matt Ryan 6 2
Rich Gannon 6
Steve McNair 6
Tony Romo 6
Andrew Luck 5
Dan Marino 5
Donovan McNabb 5
Drew Bledsoe 5
Jim Everett 5
* Games may be added or lost to
fluctuating opponent adjustments.

The top three names here are exactly who you'd expect, and the gap between them and everyone else is exactly as big as you'd expect. Brady needs just one more big game to break the tie he has with Peyton Manning at the top of the pile, but he hasn't come close to hitting 200 DYAR this year -- his best game, against Buffalo in Week 8, now stands at just 119 DYAR. Meanwhile Brees, has been on fire this season. He has already topped 200 DYAR twice, and has gone over 100 five other times. There's a fair shot he'll pass both Manning and Brady by the end of the year.

Other active quarterbacks with at least five 200-DYAR games: Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Roethlisberger. Four others -- Matt Schaub, Russell Wilson, and Fitzpatrick -- just missed with four each. (Yes, Matt Schaub is still active. He completed five passes in Atlanta's 41-17 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 5 -- including one to himself!)

As far as single-season totals, Manning leads the way with nine in 2013, followed by Brady with seven in 2007. Four quarterbacks have had exactly five in a season: Manning in 2004 and 2006, Brees in 2013, and Trent Green in 2003.

The franchise leaderboard is also predictable. New England leads the way with 37, followed by New Orleans (34), Indianapolis (26), and San Francisco (24). The Bengals, Broncos, and Packers have 22 each. At the bottom of the list we have Cleveland and Jacksonville with just two each, but then neither of those teams was in existence for every year in this database. The Chicago Bears, who have been around forever, have only three.

Enough of this positivity. Let's look at the worst games of the year. We have 292 catalogued occurrences of quarterbacks amassing -160 DYAR or worse in a single game. Here are the ten times it has happened in 2018:

Worst Quarterback Games, Total DYAR, Weeks 1-10 2018
Player Team Wk CP/AT Yds TD Int Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
Josh Allen BUF 4 16/33 151 0 2 7 -232 -206 -26 GB
Josh Rosen ARI 7 21/39 194 1 3 6 -228 -233 5 DEN
Sam Darnold NYJ 7 17/42 206 1 3 3 -196 -210 13 MIN
Sam Darnold NYJ 9 21/39 229 0 4 4 -195 -195 0 MIA
Derek Anderson BUF 7 20/31 188 0 3 2 -194 -194 0 IND
C.J. Beathard SF 7 15/27 170 1 2 7 -180 -184 4 LAR
Dak Prescott DAL 3 19/34 168 1 2 5 -171 -181 10 SEA
Nathan Peterman BUF 1 5/18 24 0 2 3 -168 -164 -4 BAL
Nathan Peterman BUF 9 32/49 189 0 3 4 -168 -189 21 CHI
Jameis Winston TB 8 18/35 276 1 4 5 -162 -166 4 CIN

It's a bad year to be Nathan Peterman, Sam Darnold, or a rookie named "Josh." But the real news here is that the Buffalo Bills, with more than a third of the season to go, have already dipped below the -160-DYAR threshold four times. Only one other team has had four quarterback games so bad in a single season: the 2006 Chicago Bears. You may remember that team -- they PLAYED IN THE SUPER BOWL despite a quarterback in Rex Grossman who often appeared to be deliberately throwing games away. They actually won two of Grossman's worst starts: the notorious "Crown their ass" game against Arizona in Week 6, and a 23-13 victory over Minnesota in Week 13. The Bears' defense and special teams scored five touchdowns and a safety in those two games.

As for the Bills, they have six games left to break that record, and they have already announced that Josh Allen will start again as soon as he is healthy.

None of 2018's games are among the worst 20 of all time, but one recent game is very near the top.

Worst Quarterback Games, Total DYAR, 1989-2018
Player Team Year Wk CP/AT Yds TD Int Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
David Klingler CIN 1994 4 10/30 115 0 3 7 -302 -302 0 HOIL
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 2016 3 20/44 188 0 6 0 -300 -291 -9 KC
Rex Grossman CHI 2006 6 14/37 144 0 4 2 -284 -284 0 ARI
Brandon Weeden CLE 2012 1 12/35 118 0 4 2 -274 -284 10 PHI
Alex Smith SF 2005 5 9/23 74 0 4 5 -270 -263 -7 IND
Tim Hasselbeck WAS 2003 15 6/26 56 0 4 1 -270 -268 -2 DAL
Troy Aikman DAL 1990 6 9/25 61 0 2 4 -269 -259 -11 PHX
Donald Hollas OAK 1998 14 12/31 152 1 6 8 -266 -273 7 MIA
Brian Griese DEN 2001 17 16/32 151 1 4 5 -265 -272 7 IND
Kordell Stewart CHI 2003 1 14/34 95 1 3 5 -263 -256 -7 SF
Craig Erickson TB 1993 6 13/29 122 0 4 3 -259 -257 -3 MIN
Ryan Leaf SD 1998 3 1/15 4 0 2 2 -259 -256 -3 KC
Vinny Testaverde TB 1989 13 19/39 188 0 5 4 -256 -256 0 GB
Bobby Hoying PHI 1998 11 16/34 118 0 2 5 -255 -248 -7 WAS
Kelly Stouffer SEA 1992 13 12/21 109 0 2 5 -254 -254 0 DEN
Vinny Testaverde TB 1990 9 10/24 149 1 5 3 -250 -260 11 CHI
Teddy Bridgewater MIN 2014 6 23/37 188 0 3 8 -250 -257 7 DET
David Carr HOU 2002 2 6/25 87 0 2 9 -247 -258 11 SD
Drew Bledsoe NE 1999 11 16/34 201 1 5 4 -247 -247 0 MIA
John Beck MIA 2007 13 23/39 177 0 3 3 -246 -250 4 NYJ

As it turns out, by a very narrow margin, the worst day of Ryan Fitzpatrick's career is just the second-worst game since 1989. David Klingler's game against the Oilers -- when he amassed one sack or interception for each completed pass -- is going to be hard to top.

You don't find many players with great numbers of terrible games, because those quarterbacks tend to have very short careers. (Case in point: as this was being written, the Bills announced that they had released Nathan Peterman.) Trent Dilfer leads the way with eight. Eli Manning and David Carr -- each of whom has been somewhat overshadowed by his own brother -- are next with six each. Mark Sanchez has five, and then eight are tied with four; Alex Smith is the only active player in that group. Two others have three, and both (Peterman, in only four career starts, and Derek Anderson) have played for this year's Bills.

The Bears, as a franchise, have 20 awful quarterback games, far more than any other team. (The Eagles and Buccaneers are tied for second with 15 each.) That includes four terrible games apiece from Grossman and Jay Cutler, and one each from (deep inhale), Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Brian Griese, Jim Harbaugh, Erik Kramer, Craig Krenzel, Shane Matthews, Cade McNown, Kyle Orton, Jonathan Quinn, Kordell Stewart, and Peter Tom Willis.

Grossman is the only quarterback with four terrible starts in one season. Sanchez had three in 2009, while Bobby Hoying (the Nathan Peterman of the late '90s) had three in only seven starts with the Eagles in 1998.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
22/25
328
5
0
1
264
250
14
CAR
Third downs: 7-of-8 for 110 yards. Every completion picked up a first down, including a touchdown; the incompletion came on third-and-17. He went 3-for-3 on deep balls, for 161 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw four passes to receivers at least 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage; each was completed for a first down, gaining 35 yards and a score.
2.
Drew Brees NO
22/25
265
3
0
0
213
206
7
CIN
On one stretch in the first half, Brees picked up a first down on eight straight throws: seven completions for 105 yards and an 11-yard DPI. There were four starters this week who had eight or fewer first downs in an entire game, let alone on eight throws in a row. And then over the second and third quarters, Brees picked up first downs on four straight passes: four completions for 101 yards.
3.
Jared Goff LAR
28/39
318
2
0
2
160
161
-1
SEA
Short yardage was kind to Goff. With 6 yards or less to go for a first down, he went 11-of-15 for 113 yards and 10 first downs, including a touchdown.
4.
Matt Ryan ATL
38/51
330
2
0
2
156
157
-2
CLE
Ryan gained 67 DYAR on opponent adjustments, most of any quarterback this week. On throws that traveled at least 9 yards downfield, Ryan went 8-of-10 for 140 yards. An 11th throw resulted in a 13-yard gain on a DPI.
5.
Baker Mayfield CLE
17/20
216
3
0
0
137
156
-13
ATL
Mayfield's totals include -6 DYAR receiving for his one target, an incomplete pass. He actually ended this game on a cold streak, with just one first down in his last five throws. Up to that point, he had gone 14-of-15 (including completions on each of his first 13 throws) for 186 yards and 12 first downs, including three touchdowns. In Atlanta territory, he went 6-of-7 for 73 yards and five first downs, including three touchdowns.
6.
Mitchell Trubisky CHI
23/30
355
3
0
1
130
115
15
DET
Trubisky lost 57 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, most of any quarterback this week. Throwing to his right, he went 9-of-12 for 178 yards and eight first down, including three touchdowns.
7.
Andrew Luck IND
21/29
285
3
1
0
126
123
3
JAX
Luck threw 12 passes that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, completing nine of them for 224 yards and two touchdowns.
8.
Matt Barkley BUF
15/25
232
2
0
1
114
124
-11
NYJ
Yes, this was the best game of Barkley's career, but it's closer than you'd think -- he had 103 DYAR in Week 15 of 2016. He was most effective on short passes -- on throws to targets less than 10 yards downfield, he went 11-of-12 for 87 yards. And those weren't empty completions, either -- eight picked up first downs, including two touchdowns.
9.
Blake Bortles JAX
26/38
320
2
0
0
112
108
4
IND
Bortles threw seven passes at or within the Jacksonville 38-yard line. He completed all of them for 143 yards and six first downs, including a touchdown.
10.
Marcus Mariota TEN
16/24
234
2
0
2
110
94
5
NE
Mariota's totals include 11 DYAR receiving for his one target, a 21-yard reception. He converted a lot of long-yardage throws: with 14 yards or more to go for a first down, he went 5-of-5 for 98 yards and four conversions, including a touchdown.
11.
Patrick Mahomes KC
21/28
249
2
0
5
90
79
11
ARI
Mahomes had extreme splits by direction. To his left: 8-of-9 for 110 yards and seven first downs. To the middle: 4-for-4 for 69 yards and three first downs, including two scores. To the right: 9-of-15 for 70 yards and only two first downs. Patrick Peterson still plays on that side of the field, apparently.
12.
Carson Wentz PHI
32/43
360
2
1
2
85
79
7
DAL
The sweet spot for Wentz came on throws that traveled 9 to 13 yards downfield: 9-of-10 for 111 yards. Each of those completions picked up a first down, including a touchdown. Of course, the one incompletion was intercepted. So there's that.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Ryan Fitzpatrick TB
29/41
406
0
2
2
63
64
-1
WAS
By passing DYAR, Fitzpatrick was literally the worst quarterback inside the red zone this week, and literally the best over the other 80 yards of the field. In the red zone, he went 0-for-5 with two sacks, a fumble, and an interception.
14.
Eli Manning NYG
19/31
188
3
0
1
62
62
0
SF
15.
Russell Wilson SEA
17/25
176
3
0
4
54
21
33
LAR
Third-/fourth-down passing: 2-of-6, 20 yards, two conversions (including a touchdown), four sacks, one fumble.
16.
Dak Prescott DAL
26/36
270
1
0
4
43
52
-9
PHI
Prescott threw six passes that traveled 7 to 19 yards downfield. Each one was completed for a first down, for a total of 102 yards.
17.
Aaron Rodgers GB
19/28
199
2
0
2
37
28
9
MIA
Between Jimmy Graham, Lance Kendricks, and Marcedes Lewis, the Packers are stacked with veteran tight ends. Rodgers didn't throw to them often against Miami, but when he did, he was effective: four passes, all of them complete, for 68 yards and three first downs.
18.
Matthew Stafford DET
25/42
274
2
2
6
3
-2
5
CHI
In one stretch of 19 dropbacks over the third and fourth quarters, Stafford went 4-of-15 for 51 yards with one first down, four sacks, one interception, and one fumble.
19.
Philip Rivers LAC
18/26
223
2
1
1
2
6
-4
OAK
Third-down passing: 3-of-8 for 15 yards with two conversions and one interception.
20.
Tom Brady NE
21/40
254
0
0
3
-13
-6
-5
TEN
Brady's totals include -1 DYAR receiving for his one target, a 6-yard gain on third-and-7. In Tennessee territory, he went 6-of-15 for 39 yards, only two first downs, and one sack.
21.
Nick Mullens SF
27/37
250
1
2
0
-13
-11
-2
NYG
22.
Alex Smith WAS
19/27
178
1
0
3
-17
-18
1
TB
Here is how to pad your stats for fantasy and, especially, passer rating purposes: with more than 10 yards to go for a first down, Smith went 7-of-8 for 58 yards with two sacks That sounds OK ... but none of those completions actually picked up a first down. Only one (a 10-yard gain on first-and-18) was even a successful play.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Cam Newton CAR
23/29
193
2
1
5
-22
-23
1
PIT
With 7 yards or less to go for a first down: 9-of-9 for 73 yards and seven conversions, with two sacks. With 11 yards or more to go: 3-of-5 for 8 yards and (obviously) no conversions.
24.
Derek Carr OAK
24/37
243
0
0
4
-42
-40
-2
LAC
Inside the Chargers' 40, Carr went 5-of-11 for 30 yards with two first downs, two sacks, and one fumble.
25.
Andy Dalton CIN
12/19
153
1
2
4
-96
-98
3
NO
Almost all of Dalton's good plays came between the Cincinnati 25-yard line and midfield. Any shorter than that, he went 2-of-5 for 11 yards with no first downs and a sack. And in New Orleans territory, he went 2-of-6 for 9 yards with two first downs (including a touchdown), two interceptions, and one sack.
26.
Josh McCown NYJ
17/34
135
0
2
3
-111
-111
-1
BUF
McCown's splits were similar to Dalton's. Within his own 30, he went 5-of-14 for 39 yards and only one first down. And between the Jets 48 and the Bills goal line, McCown went 3-of-7 for 21 yards with one first down, two interceptions, and three sacks.
27.
Josh Rosen ARI
22/39
208
1
2
5
-141
-141
0
KC
To be fair to Rosen, he was often in a bad situation on Sunday. His average pass came with 10.6 yards to go for a first down, most of any quarterback in the league this week. That includes nine dropbacks with 15 yards or more to go for a first down, and six dropbacks with 20 yards or more to go. That's as many or more 20-yards-to-go plays as Sam Darnold, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, Philip Rivers, or Drew Brees has faced all season. Of course, that doesn't explain Rosen's interceptions on first-and-10 or second-and-6. Or his two sacks on first-and-10. Or his incompletions on second-and-1, second-and-4, or third-and-4. And it only partially explains his sorry performance on throws to wide receivers: 8-of-17 for 58 yards ond only five first downs.
28.
Brock Osweiler MIA
23/37
213
0
1
6
-142
-142
0
GB
Inside the Green Bay 30-yard line, Osweiler went 4-of-8 for 17 yards with an aborted snap, two sacks, and no first downs. Throwing to his right, he went 8-of-13, but for only 56 yards and three first downs. He also had eight failed completions. Only Matt Ryan had more this week. Ryan offset his failed completions by throwing for 330 yards and two touchdowns; Osweiler did not.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Christian McCaffrey CAR
14
77
1
5/5
61
2
76
29
47
PIT
All of McCaffrey's runs gained at least 1 yard. Four gained first downs, including a 1-yard touchdown and a fourth-and-1 conversion. His longest carries gained 12, 13, and 21 yards. His best catches were 20- and 25-yard touchdowns.
2.
Todd Gurley LAR
16
120
1
3/4
40
0
71
56
15
SEA
Gurley was stuffed just once, and 12 of his carries gained at least 5 yards. His five first downs on the ground included gains of 10, 11, 14, and 17 yards. His catches included gains of 16 and 20 yards.
3.
Aaron Jones GB
15
145
2
3/5
27
0
55
55
1
MIA
Jones was stuffed twice while running for eight first downs. That includes six gains of 10 or more yards, the longest a 67-yarder. His best catch was a 19-yard gain on first-and-15.
4.
Matt Breida SF
17
101
1
3/4
31
1
49
36
13
NYG
5.
Joe Mixon CIN
11
61
0
2/2
24
0
49
34
15
NO
Seven of Mixon's runs gained 5 yards or more and three went for first downs, while only one resulted in a stuff. Both of his catches also resulted in first downs.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Todd Gurley LAR
16
120
1
3/4
40
0
71
56
15
SEA
2.
Aaron Jones GB
15
145
2
3/5
27
0
55
55
1
MIA
3.
Derrick Henry TEN
11
58
2
0/0
0
0
40
40
0
NE
Henry was stuffed just once while running for five first downs, with three runs of 10 yards or more.
4.
Matt Breida SF
17
101
1
3/4
31
1
49
36
13
NYG
5.
Joe Mixon CIN
11
61
0
2/2
24
0
49
34
15
NO


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jordan Howard CHI
11
21
0
1/1
11
0
-27
-34
7
DET
None of Howard's runs resulted in first downs, and only two gained more than 3 yards.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jordan Howard CHI
11
21
0
1/1
11
0
-27
-34
7
DET


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Tyreek Hill KC
7
10
117
16.7
2
58
ARI
Hill's totals include 45 DYAR receiving, 13 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 20 yards. His touchdowns covered 37 yards on second-and-10 and 14 yards on third-and-goal from the 14, and he had two other first downs.
2.
Corey Davis TEN
7
10
125
17.9
1
58
NE
Six of Davis' catches gained first downs, including a 23-yard touchdown. He had conversions on first-and-15, first-and-20, second-and-15, and third-and-14. He also had a 16-yard DPI.
3.
Michael Thomas NO
8
8
70
8.8
2
58
CIN
Thomas' longest catch gained only 17 yards and only four gained first downs, but he also had an 11-yard DPI.
4.
Eric Ebron IND
3
3
69
23.0
2
56
JAX
Ebron's totals include 37 DYAR receiving, 20 DYAR rushing for his 2-yard touchdown run. His three catches: 53-yard touchdown on second-and-12; 4-yard gain on third-and-8; 12-yard gain on third-and-10.
5.
Robert Woods LAR
4
5
89
22.2
0
47
SEA
Woods' totals include 38 DYAR receiving, 8 DYAR rushing for his three carries for 17 yards. Each of his catches gained at least 15 yards and a first down; the longest was a 35-yard gain on third-and-15.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dante Pettis SF
4
6
12
3.0
0
-37
NYG
Pettis' six targets resulted in a 4-yard gain on third-and-7; a 1-yard gain on second-and-6; a 1-yard loss on second-and-10; a pair of incompletes on first-and-10; and an 8-yard gain on third-and-9.

Comments

96 comments, Last at 14 Nov 2018, 10:29pm

1 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:39am

Randall Cunningham's historically great 332 passing DYAR game (he had -22 rushing DYAR!,) from 1998 agsinst the Packers mostly belongs to Randy Moss. Moss, as a rookie, should have been league MVP that year, not Cunningham.

I wonder what receiving DYAR Moss had against the Packers in that game?

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6 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Nov 13, 2018 - 8:46am

I still remember where I was when I watched that Monday Night game where Moss torched the Packers in Lambaue. Green Bay remained so haunted by that game that they drafted like 9 cornerbacks in the ‘99 draft.

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22 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by DGL // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:23pm

"Lambaue" sounds like a Wisconsin version of a Scotch-based liqueur.

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14 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Ben // Nov 13, 2018 - 11:20am

I will happily argue that Moss is the most gifted athlete in the NFL over the last 30 years. He obviously didn't have the greatest work-ethic, but that's because of he didn't generally need it due to his freakish athleticism. When he actually cared and put in the effort on the field, he was completely unstoppable.

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16 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 11:37am

I'd characterize him as a guy who, as strange as it may sound, really didn't like playing football. He loved hearing the crowd cheer when he scored touchdowns, and he really loved making a lot of money (I mean that as no criticism), but the grind of playing football with maximum efficiency, meaning attending to everything which can result in a player assisting his football team in winning games, didn't hold much appeal to him. To be fair, I think this attitude is far more common in the NFL than the vast majority of fans grasp. Football is really.a lot of day to day drudgery, even by the standards of the most elite athletes. However, when that attitude is joined to someone who is about as as far out on the right tail of the talent curve as anyone ever has been, it is much more notable thing.

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17 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dryheat // Nov 13, 2018 - 11:55am

I've said it before (and more than once), but I'll say it again. Randy Moss would have been a hall of famer in any major sport he decided to concentrate on, including, if he grew up in the appropriate sections of North America, ice hockey. His level of athleticism was rare among the rare. Bo Jackson is the only one I can quickly think of that belongs in that category.

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19 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:01pm

Oh, yes, basketball in particular. If he had grown up in an urban setting, spending nearly every childhood day on a basketball court, he would almost certainly have been a 1st ballot HOFer in hoops. Not quite as certain in baseball, because his build suggests a non-compact swing, and predicting who can hit major league pitching, even among the best athletes, is hard to do.

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20 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by JMM // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:18pm

I'll bet that tall frame could pitch.

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23 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:24pm

I think it likely as well. Probably a very nasty slider, as long as the elbow ligament held up.

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89 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dbostedo // Nov 13, 2018 - 11:35pm

Even though he didn't grow up in an urban setting, Moss was an outstanding high school basketball player - and potentially could have made that his career. He graduated from high school with Jason Williams, who had a decent NBA career... and in 1994, Moss was West Virginia's Player of the Year in both football AND basketball, ahead of Williams.

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28 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:36pm

Don't forget soccer!

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/c5c459/the-half-hour-soccer-is-stupid

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29 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:42pm

Jim Thorpe doesn't exist in your reality?

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32 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dryheat // Nov 13, 2018 - 1:05pm

He exists in my reality the same way George Washington does. I acknowledge his existence, but I never got to see him at work.

My list of two certainly was not meant to be exhaustive, but it's hard to judge guys from over a century ago, when the best athletes left college and got a job on a farm or in the army or in a factory.

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92 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by MC2 // Nov 14, 2018 - 4:26am

I would probably put Herschel Walker in that category. But I might put Wilt Chamberlain above them all, as the greatest "athletic freak" of all time.

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24 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:27pm

Your drudgery comment reminds me of the movie actor who said "We actually work for free- it's the waiting around we get paid for." For NFL players, the ratio of annual practice/workout time to screen time must be about 50:1.

Given what a "problem child" Moss was at times in his career, it's a pleasant surprise to see him now as a polished, congenial TV presence.

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38 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by bravehoptoad // Nov 13, 2018 - 1:40pm

Joe Paterno: "The will to win is important, but the will to prepare is vital."

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39 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by theslothook // Nov 13, 2018 - 2:17pm

Marvin Harrison once said, we play on Sunday's for free, you pay us for Monday through Saturday.

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47 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by SFC B // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:03pm

I tend to discount the reporting of professional athletes being "problems" because the reporting of such tends to correlate to how willing the player is to be nice to reporters. I also try not to take the reporting of a mostly white press corps, whose access relies on playing nice with the mostly-white management of the sports organization, to be giving a fair and unbiased assessment of a play who likely shares little with the background of the reporter.

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53 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:33pm

Definitely fair points. Marshawn Lynch is an excellent example of that.

However, this goes a bit beyond mere postgame sass: https://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/25/sports/pro-football-traffic-arrest-fo...

Heck, when the news came out about Kyle Lauletta pulling a Moss, I felt a twinge of nostalgia!

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57 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:50pm

I try to discount nearly anything I read about famous people, other than the stuff I can see or hear for myself, or is established in a legal setting. Having strong opinions about strangers, due to alleged behaviors which have not been proven, seems pretty unwise. I never had any issue with Marshawn Lynch's rhetoric, and my issue with T.O. pertained to stuff I hear him say about teammates. Using a car to move a human being is just inexcusable, I don't care what your background is, which is the Moss incident that annoyed the hell out of me

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40 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by theslothook // Nov 13, 2018 - 2:22pm

I think it's very fitting that he got so close but never actually won the ring.

Full disclosure, I did not like Randy Moss even though he is in a very very exclusive club of players-call the hall of fame of hall of famers.

Ive always found it strange how people vilify TO but seem to give a pass to Moss and his antics.

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45 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 13, 2018 - 2:59pm

Moss has franchises that miss him.

TO does not.

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50 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:09pm

There's plenty to object to with Moss, but I don't recall him ever publicly villifying or engaging in gossip with regard to a teammate. That's the stuff that bothered me the most about T.O..

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46 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by nath // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:01pm

I love that Randy Moss actually seems to prefer just hanging out fly fishing to football.

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2 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Nov 13, 2018 - 6:49am

The NFL is a good way to measure time over the long-term. I'll always remember where I was for that "they are who we thought they were" game in 2006, for example, so that's how I know what 12 years feels like.

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5 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Nov 13, 2018 - 8:44am

That’s so true. Just the other day, my wife and I were arguing about what year the movie Road House came out. I told her I was positive it was 1989, because it was during the same year that the Cowboys were awful and everyone was calling for Jimmy Johnson to be a one and done head coach. She was astonished I was correct after she googled it. Too bad those kind of memory cues can’t be used for anything practical.

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62 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:01pm

Exactly! I too have said things like "I couldn't have been dating [particular ex-girlfriend] in 2008, one of our first conversations was about how Kyle Orton is probably better for the Broncos than Jay Cutler anyway." Girlfriends come and go, but the NFL is a constant.

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7 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by BJR // Nov 13, 2018 - 9:41am

Whenever that game gets mentioned I feel obliged to look up the box score and stare at it in disbelief for a good few minutes.

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8 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Todd S. // Nov 13, 2018 - 9:51am

That was the best game thread on this site, ever. I read it the next morning in the office and had to muffle my laughter.

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61 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dbt // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:00pm

I watched that game live without a laptop (pre-iphone, wow), so never read the game thread. Rectifying that now.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/open-discussion/2006/week-6-mnf-discus...

When the Khalil Mack defense was getting a lot of positive press early in the year, I went and pulled out that game from the archives to show my kid what a true, dominating, completely crazy defense was like. I still maintain that team loved it when Grossman turned the ball over, because it gave them more time to work on takeaways and crushing sacks.

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88 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by bravehoptoad // Nov 13, 2018 - 10:22pm

Whoo, blast from the past. There's something endlessly tickling about reading old game threads. Take this quote pulled from that thread, one written by Will Allen, who, let's face it, is one of the star posters on this site:

Well, the Texans are to be faulted for passing on Bush, not Leinert. Green Bay should have traded Favre for more picks, picked Leinert, and fed Rodgers to the wolves for a year. If he surprised and played well, the Pack would have more qb talent to get more picks/players with, and if he didn't, so what? Al Davis and Matt Millen were just dumb. Big surprise. Bud Adams may end up getting lucky someday in regards to Vince Young, but I can't tell yet.

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15 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Ben // Nov 13, 2018 - 11:25am

I watched that game (and Green's rant) live, but I had forgotten quite how crazy it was. It's got it's own WIkipedia article, which was a good refresher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Chicago_Bears%E2%80%93Arizona_Cardina...

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34 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 1:15pm

One of my favorite parts of that game is Theismann's and Kornheiser's effusive, nonstop praising and waxing poetic over the Cardinals' poised, future HOF-in-the-making rookie quarterback... Matt Leinart!

"He's got a quiet confidence, like a Tom Brady. He has that type of demeanor."

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3 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Arson55 // Nov 13, 2018 - 7:54am

Ezekiel Elliot didn't even get into the top 5 backs in rushing with 159 yards on 19 carries? What kind of DYAR did he end up with?

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13 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Joseph // Nov 13, 2018 - 10:51am

Neither of the Saints backs did, either. I figured Kamara's TD's might get him there, but obv. not. Probably too few touches for both of them.

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31 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Chappy // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:48pm

As an Elliot fantasy owner I'm not surprised. He got about half his rushing yards off of two plays. In the first half of the game all he had was a bunch of 1-3 yard runs. I think he only got maybe 3 or 4 first downs off runs. My sense is that DVOA likes 17 10-yard runs more than 15 3-yard runs and 2 68-yard runs.

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4 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dryheat // Nov 13, 2018 - 8:31am

Brady's target was not incomplete. Perhaps you mean unsuccessful, as he managed to trip himself short of the marker.

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11 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by nat // Nov 13, 2018 - 10:34am

O Football Outsiders statistical sages: The -1 DYAR assigned to getting 6 yards receiving on 3rd-and-7 makes you wonder, as it was the absolute most valuable failure possible on that play, and set up a very makeable fourth-and-one.

What was the YAR on that play? Was it positive?

Are there ever third down plays that fall short of the line to gain, but get a positive YAR? What's it take to do that?

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21 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by DGL // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:21pm

I believe (reaching back in my memory) that FO's definition of "success" on third down is a minimum of 100% of the required yardage; I don't know precisely how "success" is translated to YAR/DYAR.

I wonder if the increasing willingness of teams to go for it on fourth down merits a re-evaluation of this definition of "success" on third down.

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49 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by nat // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:07pm

You're exactly right about the "success" threshold on third down.

But that "success" threshold doesn't matter to YAR, since YAR compares to a replacement level of success, not to any specific threshold value.

It's possible that the value of converting the first down is sufficiently high that any third down play that fails to do so is below replacement level. That would be an interesting thing to know about DYAR.

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54 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Eddo // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:35pm

The baseline for YAR (replacement level) is below average, so it's likely that some unsuccessful plays count as positive YAR, since replacement players would not be expected to succeed half the time.

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9 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 13, 2018 - 10:08am

Where did Delhomme's breakdown game against Arizona in 2008 rank?

I'm curious how many guys made both lists. I think Alex Smith also has a +200 DYAR game (week 1 last year). Steve Young might have a -200 DYAR game if we ever get back to 1985. Peyton has a -200 DYAR game, too (week 9 of 2015).

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10 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Harry Koala // Nov 13, 2018 - 10:24am

Tom Brady's 2017 entry in the top 20 DYAR QB games is his 5th, which finally breaks his tie with "QBs throwing to Randy Moss" (4 entries in the list).

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12 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 10:43am

It may sound crazy, but there's a chance that Randy Moss has been underrated.

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18 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by brambo // Nov 13, 2018 - 11:59am

Not sure how Nick Chubb didn't get in the top 5 rushing. Or even the top 1. 176 yards on 20 carries and a TD seems pretty efficient.

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26 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by ammek // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:30pm

More than half of those yards came on one carry.
His success rate was 50%. Decent, but not great, especially against the #31 rush defense by DVOA.
He had a false start penalty too, although I don't know if that counts against him in DYAR.

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25 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Cythammer // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:28pm

So Blake Bortles has a strong game on the day the Jaguars season essentially ends. He might not be the solution to what ails Jacksonville, but he's also not the cause of their downturn this year.

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35 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Ben // Nov 13, 2018 - 1:24pm

I wouldn't take much out of this performance from Bortles. The Colts have basically zero pass-rush this year. They have 4 sacks total over the last 5 games. In 4 of those 5 games, they got 3 QB hits or less. And that's against some well below average offensive lines.

edit: For example, over their last 4 games, the Raiders have given up 6,0, 8, and 4 sacks. Guess which game was against the Colts...

Bortles pretty much did his best Alex Smith impression for the whole game, dumping short passes to backs out of the backfield when his first read wasn't open. Now, you can win with Alex Smith if you have a ton of talent around him, but the Jags don't have that.

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51 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Cythammer // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:15pm

My point was just that Bortles is the same guy he was last year. The Jags have become much worse but it's not due to Bortles.

I think Alex Smith is better than you are giving him credit for. He's a good QB, it would be a significant improvement on Bortles' part if he could become as good as Alex Smith.

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48 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by SFC B // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:06pm

Good Blake Bortles is not what is holding back the Jaguars. The problem is Good Blake Bortles wouldn't be able to carry a team to success, and Good Blake Bortles very rarely wins the internal wrestling match with a giant that is Bad Blake Bortles.

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41 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by danplatt17 // Nov 13, 2018 - 2:23pm

I was at the CHI vs SF Kordell Stewart game in San Francisco. I was a then-resident of the Bay Area, a native Chicagoan, and Bears' fan. My father flew out from Chicago to attend the game. The game was just an unbelievable disaster, and over so fast. The Niners fans took pity on us, which was quite kind. Here's the stats:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200309070sfo.htm

I'm surprised that another CHI-SF game didn't make that list. Fortunately, I did not attend this one. The Kaepernick coming out party/Jason Campbell is nearly killed game in 2012. Campbell was completely overwhelmed by the Niners pass rush:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201211190sfo.htm

The Bears had a ton of terrible history at Candlestick. Hopefully, this new stadium will treat them better.

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42 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by theslothook // Nov 13, 2018 - 2:31pm

HA! I remember that game. Aldon Smith singlehandedly lost me my fantasy team that week. I spent the night praying Jason Campbell would just hand off over and over.

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90 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Bill Walshs Holy Ghost // Nov 14, 2018 - 12:12am

The Bears did (much to my dismay) beat the 49ers in the FIRST GAME of Levi's stadium history. Niners opened well in the first half, felt like it could turn into a blow out; I mean no way SF can lose the first game in the stadium, right? Snoop Dogg performed at halftime. Then the second half began and SF shat the bed. I knew that Niners era was done that night.

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27 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by ChrisS // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:31pm

The way Ryan Leaf maximized his inefficiency is amazing. He only had 17 dropbacks but managed -15 DYAR per, if he would have had an average number (based on these worst games) he would have had -525 DYAR. But only completing 6% of dropbacks does limit the number available

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30 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 12:46pm

Last year, Vince pointed out several cases that were even more "efficient"- Kelly Holcomb and Rex Grossman both hit the -200+ DYAR mark on 10 and 13 dropbacks, respectively!

(R.I.Peterman: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2017/week-11-quick-reads)

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95 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Noah Arkadia // Nov 14, 2018 - 9:46pm

Yeah, how about that. Vince mentions Klinger having a TD or sack per each of his completions, but Leaf had 2 TDs and 2 sacks against a single completion... for four yards.

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33 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 1:05pm

Thanks for the shoutout, Vince! I'm loving all the deep drives into the drudges of QB play, of which there seems to be an abundance this year, thanks to the rookies and The Turnover Artist Formerly Known As Peterman.

Amazing that the Bears went 13-3 with Grossman. Hard to imagine a team achieving a 1st-round bye with worse quarterbacking, except maybe the 2001 Bears... or the 1986 Bears... or da 1988 Bears... sensing a pattern here! Not to mention Todd Collins' victorious start for the 2010 Bears (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201010100car.htm). Man, the Bears really could win with anyone.

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36 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 13, 2018 - 1:30pm

Steve Fuller somehow went 0-2 for the 1986 Bears.

From September 8, 1985 to January 2, 1987, the Bears went 33-3. Steve Fuller was 4-3. All other QBs (Tomczak, McMahon, Flutie) combined to go 29-0.

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37 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 1:38pm

That 2001 Bears defense did give up the fewest points, so winning 12 or 13 wasn't a completely crazy outcome, but if I remember correctly, that team had ridiculously good luck on fumble and int returns. Their mirror image was the 2000 Vikings, a championship quality offense joined to a historically bad defense, perhaps the worst ever. That roster came within a couple plays of gaining the number 1 seed, which I can scarcely believe even today.

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56 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:49pm

Don't forget about their surreal, Twilight Zone level interception luck (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GsVsVCKqUeg)

Not sure who would have won the tiebreaker, but they finished 0-3, while the Giants won their last three. Sitting at 11-2 with 3 weeks to go, with NYG at 9-4, I imagine the Purple's odds of getting the #1 seed were well over 90%, if not 95%.

And to think the Vikes were 1-point faves, on the road, in the "Forty-one doughnut" NFC title game! One of the most inexplicable lines ever. Almost as bad as the 1997 Broncos as 11-point dogs in SB XXXII.

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59 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:59pm

I didn't even watch 41-0, I was so sure they were going to be trounced. I'm pretty sure if you change one or two plays in their December game against the Packers, the Vikings get the #1 seed, and strangely enough, I think they would have had a chance against the Giants in Minneapolis. If they had won, it would had resulted in, by a very wide margin, the worst Super Bowl competitor ever.

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67 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by NYChem // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:32pm

The '94 chargers and the '85 patriots would like a word with you. The would be 2000 vikes mighta been the worst, but not 'by a very wide margin.'

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70 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:35pm

Make sure to save seats for the 2007 & 2008 NFC reps, too!

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72 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:45pm

The '94 Niners would have scored 77 points on the 2000 Vikings, if they didn't fall asleep.

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68 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:34pm

I think you mean the (November) MNF Freeman game? Yeah, tied 20-20 with :08 left, Vikes had a 33-yard FG to win from the center of the hashmarks. Berger not only botches a perfect snap, but then, rather than spiking the ball to save time for another attempt, lobs up a Yepremianesque heave well short of the end zone, which gets picked off and sends the game into OT! An all-time KCW double whammy. To be fair, it was raining.

Several minutes later.... "He did WHAT?!?!?!"

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71 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:42pm

They also lost a close December game to the Packers, which featured a terrible throw by Culpepper in the 2nd half, that resulted in a 48 yard int return.

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91 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dbt // Nov 14, 2018 - 1:51am

> Man, the Bears really could win with anyone

Except the dredges of this list, in which lingers the careers of number of never-to-be-seen-again offensive coordinators:

> That includes [...] one each from (deep inhale), Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Brian Griese, Jim Harbaugh, Erik Kramer, Craig Krenzel, Shane Matthews, Cade McNown, Kyle Orton, Jonathan Quinn, Kordell Stewart, and Peter Tom Willis.

Christ, what a bunch of bums. (Griese, Harbaugh and Kramer all had their moments, obviously).

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94 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei // Nov 14, 2018 - 6:05am

So did Orton! Though most of them came in Denver.

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43 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by theslothook // Nov 13, 2018 - 2:35pm

One of these days, I need to get around to doing a proper era adjustment for the numbers. It's remarkable to think just how different today's game is from the relatively pedestrian days of 2006-2008. To say nothing of 1996 or 1986.

Another unheralded point, just as today's passing numbers have skewed how we think about hall of fame QBs, I think the reverse has happened to Running backs. Its harder than ever to be a hall of fame running back

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93 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by MC2 // Nov 14, 2018 - 4:30am

I disagree about the RBs. The more the position becomes devalued, the further the HOF voters seem to lower the bar. Even Frank Gore is considered a lock at this point, despite being basically league average (or in some seasons, below league average) in almost every metric (both advanced and conventional) for most of his career.

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44 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Steve in WI // Nov 13, 2018 - 2:57pm

I'm surprised to see that Trubisky's game against the Lions was worth over 100 fewer DYAR than his game against Tampa. And Tampa's defense is even worse than Detroit's, so I wouldn't think the opponent adjustments would play a big role in that difference.

It feels like everyone in Chicago sports media is saying that Trubisky was clearly more impressive in the Lions game. I wonder if the disconnect is because people are seeing things that DYAR doesn't pick up on (like the way Trubisky is working through his progressions, or his ease in the pocket), or if they're overvaluing the most recent game and forgetting about week 4.

Regardless, I'm beginning to think my Trubisky pessimism was wrong.

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52 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:19pm

Sunday night will be the biggest Vikings-Bears contest since they met in Minneapolis in December 2012. Soldier Field is always a tough venue for the Vikings, and I think scoring is going to be a real challenge for the Vikings, so I'd favor the Bears, especially since I also think Trubisky is improving.

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55 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by RevBackjoy // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:46pm

Based on current DVOA standings, CHI -3 looks like a steal. Godspeed, Kirk...

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58 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Sixknots // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:57pm

What is Mack's status?

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63 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:04pm

He had two sacks against the Lions and I've not heard anything about aggravating an existing injury, so I assume he'll be going full bore. The Vikings defense is going to have to play lights out , to give the Vikings a chance.

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60 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Nov 13, 2018 - 3:59pm

Mitchy Truby does seem to be improving, but my take is it's of the 2-steps-forward-1.5-steps-backward variety, and it's hard to predict if any particular game will be of the +2 or -1.5 variety.

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87 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by TomC // Nov 13, 2018 - 9:48pm

I've watched and re-watched both games, and, fwiw, my eyes disagree with dyar. More guys were running wide open against TB, and Trubisky had more "wow" throws against DET. Just as an example, on his only incompletion in the first few drives, he hit a perfectly covered receiver (Gabriel) in stride, in the hands, in the end zone, from 35 yards out.

So he is clearly capable of destroying bad defenses, and that's a start. Next step is an impressive showing against a decent D. Sunday night will be very interesting.

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64 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by big10freak // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:12pm

Jones is easily the best rb in GB since Ahman Green. His acceleration is outstanding, he has good vision, he is a pinball off tacklers and when needed he can plow to get the extra yard. Green is still the best short yardage back GB has ever had because of his combination of strength, forward lean and quick feet. But Jones looks to be a viable challenger to the throne. That is if MM can ever bring himself to give the kid the damn ball. Ouchimama

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65 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:18pm

I assume you are not era-adjusting with regard to Green's ranking among Packer short yardage backs.

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66 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by big10freak // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:27pm

Um, no. And I am comfortable stating that Ahman Green would be better than Eddie Lacey or Edgar Bennett or Dorsey Levens or Gerry Ellis or whomever in short yardage whatever the football era. His skill set translates. He was the AP of his day.

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69 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 4:34pm

Adjusting for era, I'd say Jim Taylor was better in short yardage against NFL defenses than Green.

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74 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by big10freak // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:23pm

With all due respect I don't consider that era of football germane to the modern game. Completely arbitrary on my part.

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75 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:26pm

Then if you didn't mean ever, you shouldn't have said this:

Green is still the best short yardage back GB has ever had...

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76 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by big10freak // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:37pm

I did not realize that folks put much stock in football from earlier eras where a guy like Taylor was as large as the lineman either blocking for him or trying to tackle him.

So if it mollifies the masses I will add 'in my lifetime'

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78 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:48pm

That's just it. Green only played 5-10,pounds heavier than Taylor, despite starting his career 40 years later. I try to divide eras schematically, and then adjust for athletes always getting bigger and faster, otherwise the greatest players are always playing right now.

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80 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by big10freak // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:51pm

Well, other than a few exceptions like a Deacon Jones or Jim Brown or Jerry Rice they are. That so many of the 60's Packers are in the HOF is a joke. It's absurd.

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84 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 7:01pm

Take away Deacon's head slap and he'd still be great but not nearly as dominant. Put him up against the best tackles of today, and he'd have a hard time; the best tackles are just so more athletic. The crazy thing about Jim Brown is that he's bigger than nearly all of todays best rbs, and not much slower, if at all. Era adjust, and he is 6-4 or 6-5, 270 pounds, and runs about a 4.35 forty. The best offensive coaches would turn him into some kind of wr/te/rb hybrid, who would just destroy defenses. Can you imagine trying to jam him on the line of scrimmage? Healthy Gronk.would be seen as one definite step down.

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77 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:41pm

Reasonable. My dividing point is typically the creation of the AFL. I'm pretty sure Jim Brown remains the best running back ever, and Taylor was his contemporary, so I think Taylor can be compared to Green. I think Paul Brown actually ushered in modern football in the 50s, so I just go with the post 1960 expansion of the game.

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79 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by big10freak // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:50pm

Ok. I was not trying to start some flamewar over this topic. Only that McCarthy's limited usage of AJ is inexplicable given the player's obvious talents. The ability to get the tough 1-2 yards and still break a big run with a dart through the line is a unique combo at least in recent GB times.

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83 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Nov 13, 2018 - 6:47pm

You may be right, but I'm always hesitant to second guess depth chart decisions, for the simple reason that I don't see practices and preparation, so I really don't know.the situation. If a guy is making mental errors during the week, it is hard to trust him on Sunday. Like I said, however for all I know you are entirely correct.

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73 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 13, 2018 - 5:04pm

Jim Taylor won MVP as a short yardage back.

Just sayin'.

If you go way back, there's Clarke Hinkle, too.

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81 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei // Nov 13, 2018 - 6:20pm

Randall Cunningham's historically great 332 passing DYAR game (he had -22 rushing DYAR!,) from 1998 agsinst the Packers mostly belongs to Randy Moss. Moss, as a rookie, should have been league MVP that year, not Cunningham.
I wonder what receiving DYAR Moss had against the Packers in that game?

Conveniently, I updated the lists of top RB and WR games this weekend too. Moss had 104 DYAR for five catches in six targets, 190 yards, and two touchdowns. It's the 39th-best WR game on record, and the second-best game in Moss' career. His 10-catch, 171-yard, 3-TD game against the Giants in 2001 is the eighth-best game on record.

Ezekiel Elliot didn't even get into the top 5 backs in rushing with 159 yards on 19 carries? What kind of DYAR did he end up with?

8th with 41 total DYAR. He fumbled at the end of a 35-yard run. Dallas recovered, so it had little effect on the outcome, but it wiped out the value of that play and is the biggest reason he's lower than you'd expect.

Neither of the Saints backs did, either. I figured Kamara's TD's might get him there, but obv. not. Probably too few touches for both of them.

Ingram was 6th and just a few DYAR off the table. Huge hit from opponent adjustments, losing almost one-third of his value. Same for Kamara, who was 11th. Without opponent adjustments, they would have been 4th and 8th. The Bengals are giving up more than 450 yards per game, almost 35 yards more than any other team. They are on pace to give up 7,273 yards this season. The 2012 Saints hold the record with 7,042 yards allowed in a year.

Brady's target was not incomplete. Perhaps you mean unsuccessful, as he managed to trip himself short of the marker.

Indeed. That has been fixed.

O Football Outsiders statistical sages: The -1 DYAR assigned to getting 6 yards receiving on 3rd-and-7 makes you wonder, as it was the absolute most valuable failure possible on that play, and set up a very makeable fourth-and-one.
What was the YAR on that play? Was it positive?

-1.

Are there ever third down plays that fall short of the line to gain, but get a positive YAR? What's it take to do that?

Yes, a bunch. There have been 89 third-down catches that came up short of the sticks on third down that have positive YAR, and 97 with possible DYAR. Most of these are by running backs, because the 2-yard dumpoff on third-and-20 is so common that a 15-yard gain on third-and-20 suddenly looks like a positive play. Most YAR on a play like that is 5 by John Conner for an 18-yard gain on third-and-25; most DYAR is 7 for Kenyan Drake's 13-yard gain on third-and-21.

Where did Delhomme's breakdown game against Arizona in 2008 rank?

That was a playoff game; this article is looking at regular season only. We still need to update our list of playoff games, but that game was in fact really bad:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfls-best-playoff-q...

I'm curious how many guys made both lists. I think Alex Smith also has a +200 DYAR game (week 1 last year). Steve Young might have a -200 DYAR game if we ever get back to 1985. Peyton has a -200 DYAR game, too (week 9 of 2015).

70 quarterbacks had at least one game on the both the best all-time list and the worst all-time list. 30 had two or more. Seven had three or more. Drew Bledsoe and Vinny Testaverde had four on each.

Not sure how Nick Chubb didn't get in the top 5 rushing. Or even the top 1. 176 yards on 20 carries and a TD seems pretty efficient.

He finished 13th. That's largely due to opponent adjustments, which cut his value in half. But he was explosive, not efficient -- he only had five first downs on the ground, and his success rate was just 45 percent (which is about average for a running back). He's also dinged for failures to convert on second-and-2, third-and-1, and third-and-2.

I'm surprised that another CHI-SF game didn't make that list. Fortunately, I did not attend this one. The Kaepernick coming out party/Jason Campbell is nearly killed game in 2012. Campbell was completely overwhelmed by the Niners pass rush:

That's the game that got Campbell mentioned in the list of bad Bears QBs. -160 DYAR on the nose. That's actually impressive since he only threw 22 passes.

I'm surprised to see that Trubisky's game against the Lions was worth over 100 fewer DYAR than his game against Tampa. And Tampa's defense is even worse than Detroit's, so I wouldn't think the opponent adjustments would play a big role in that difference.

Against Tampa Bay, he had a 68 percent success rate, averaged 13.3 yards per play, and threw six touchdown passes. Against Detroit, he had a 56 percent success rate, averaged 11.0 yards per play, and threw three touchdown passes. He had six failed completions against Detroit, but only one against Tampa Bay.

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82 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 13, 2018 - 6:27pm

Where did Delhomme's breakdown game against Arizona in 2008 rank?

That was a playoff game; this article is looking at regular season only. We still need to update our list of playoff games, but that game was in fact really bad:

Man, I forgot that Collins Super Bowl game.

If he had -294 DYAR facing the 2000 Ravens, what was his unadjusted YAR? Was it a negative sideways 8?

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85 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dmstorm22 // Nov 13, 2018 - 7:12pm

The inverse of that is that the 2002 Buccaneers were so good defensively, that when adjusting, Rich Gannon's 5INT Super Bowl game, where he was also sacked 5 times, I think fumbled another time, didn't even crack the top 25 worst games (and seemingly had a DYAR better than -118)

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96 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by dryheat // Nov 14, 2018 - 10:29pm

That's some fine customer service. Thanks.

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86 Re: Week 10 Quick Reads

by tuluse // Nov 13, 2018 - 9:15pm

I don't want to alarm anyone, but the latest DVOA ratings have Trubisky as the most productive QB in the division.

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