Quick Reads

The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 7 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

And now, the adventures of Josh Rosen against the Denver Broncos, as told by … wait. Didn't I just do this schtick when talking about Marcus Mariota last week? I did? All right, let's just jump into this then.

As many of you had the misfortune of seeing, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen had a terrible day against the Broncos on Thursday Night Football. By DYAR, in fact, it was the worst game any quarterback has had in 2018 -- worse than anyone in Buffalo or Oakland or Cleveland or New York (either team). If you're one of the lucky ones who had better things to do, you might look at Rosen's basic stats -- 21-of-39 for 194 yards and a touchdown -- and shrug. A bad game, sure, but worst of the year? That's 4.97 yards per pass, which is just 15th-worst this season among quarterbacks with at least 20 passes in a game. It's a 53.9 percent completion rate, which doesn't even make the bottom 20. So how could this be the worst game of the year?

The answer, obviously, is in Rosen's big mistakes. His first pass of the game was intercepted; his last dropback resulted in a sack. All told, Rosen had three interceptions and six sacks. Worse, he fumbled on three of those sacks. His last nine dropbacks alone resulted in three sacks, two fumbles, and an interception.

Rosen is not the only member of the 3-6-3 club, but he's the first to join in a dozen years. Since 1991 (the first year fumbles appear in the player game logs at NFL.com), there have only been three other 3-6-3 performances:

  • Jim Harbaugh, IND, Week 10, 1996: Harbaugh was a 10-year vet at this point, in his third year with the Colts. He had a very rough game in a loss to Sean Salisbury and the San Diego Chargers in a contest that was not as close as the 26-19 final would indicate (Harbaugh's touchdown to Marvin Harrison was the last score of the game and still left Indianapolis down by seven points). By the boxscore, this looks like a boring affair, with eight straight field goals sandwiched between a trio of touchdowns. Harbaugh finished 18-of-44 for 203 yards, that one touchdown, and four interceptions.
  • Andrew Walter, OAK, Week 3, 2006: Technically, this was Walter's second NFL season, but it was just the second time he ever played in a regular-season game -- and he didn't even start on what turned out to be a horrible day for Raiders quarterbacks. Aaron Brooks got the start against Baltimore, but lasted only four offensive snaps before leaving with a shoulder injury. In those four snaps, he managed to fumble twice, with the Ravens recovering both. Walter came in facing a 9-0 deficit and was sacked by Adalius Thomas on his first dropback. He ended up going 10-of-27 for 162 yards and no touchdowns in a 28-6 loss.
  • Drew Bledsoe, DAL, Week 5, 2006: Yes, there have only been four 3-6-3 games in the past 28 years, and two of them came in one three-week stretch of the same season. Bledsoe and the Cowboys found themselves in a tight game against the Eagles, as they kicked a field goal early in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 24-all. Donovan McNabb put Philadelphia back on top with a 40-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Brown, but the Cowboys still had a chance to tie the game at the end. On second-and-goal from the 6, however, Lito Sheppard intercepted Bledsoe and returned the ball 102 yards for a touchdown and a 38-24 final score. It was the second straight drive that ended with a Sheppard interception. Bledsoe was actually sacked seven times in this game, finishing 18-of-38 for 223 yards and no touchdowns (he did run for a score). This was one of the last games of Bledsoe's career; two weeks later an injury sidelined him against the Giants, Tony Romo took over, and that was that.

Fumbles in games from older seasons can be hard to track (we already mentioned the problems at NFL.com and the Player Game Finder at Pro Football Reference doesn't seem accurate for anything older than 2008), but we found 54 games since 1991 where one player threw at least three interceptions and was sacked at least six times. Bledsoe leads the way with four such games (I wrote a lot about Bledsoe last week too -- for a good quarterback, he had a lot of bad games). Cam Newton leads all active quarterbacks with three appearances. Nobody else has more than two. On the team front, the Bears, Panthers, Vikings, Bills, and Cowboys each have four quarterbacks on the list (not coincidentally, Bledsoe played for two of those teams). Defensively, the Dolphins surprisingly lead the way with six such games forced by opponents, followed by the Eagles (four), and then the Lions, Falcons, 49ers, and Oilers/Titans (three each).

As you might expect, quarterbacks with three interceptions and six sacks have gone 0-54, by an average score of 28.7-12.6. Only seven of the 54 were able to keep the final margin within one score. The closest any of them came to a victory was Daunte Culpepper, whose Vikings lost to the Falcons in a 30-24 overtime loss in Week 13 of 2002. You may be familiar with this game. Despite Culpepper's struggles, the Vikings were able to get to overtime because they limited Michael Vick to 11-of-28 passing for just 173 yards with an interception and two sacks. Unfortunately, they still lost because they let him run for 173 yards (still the regular-season single-game record for quarterbacks), including the 46-yard game-winner, one of the most famous runs of this century.

The following table shows all quarterbacks with at least three interceptions, six sacks, and two fumbles since 1991. The four members of the 3-6-3 club have been highlighted.

Three Interceptions, Six Sacks, Two Fumbles in a Game Since 1991

Name Year Week Tm Opp Result Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Fmb Pass
DYAR
Troy Aikman 1991 3 DAL PHI L 0-24 11 25 112 0 3 11 67 2 -144
Rich Gannon 1991 13 MIN DET L 14-34 19 30 243 0 3 6 38 2 -36
Bobby Hebert 1993 16 ATL WAS L 17-30 24 42 233 1 4 7 37 2 -203
Jim Harbaugh 1996 10 IND SD L 19-26 18 44 203 1 4 6 30 3 -185
Jake Plummer 1998 2 ARI SEA L 14-33 22 36 204 1 3 7 41 2 -110
Tony Banks 1998 8 STL SF L 10-28 15 35 121 0 3 8 32 2 -237
Kerry Collins 1998 13 NO MIA L 10-30 9 24 110 0 3 6 40 2 -148
Steve Beuerlein 1999 8 CAR ATL L 20-27 21 35 256 0 3 6 29 2 -128
Drew Bledsoe 1999 15 NE PHI L 9-24 23 49 331 0 4 6 43 2 -131
Andrew Walter 2005 2 OAK BAL L 6-28 10 27 162 0 3 6 39 3 -122
Drew Bledsoe 2006 5 DAL PHI L 24-38 18 38 223 0 3 7 49 3 -141
Marc Bulger 2007 7 STL SEA L 6-33 21 40 225 0 3 7 57 2 -151
Trent Dilfer 2007 13 SF CAR L 14-31 14 29 171 2 4 6 35 2 -203
Jake Locker 2012 13 TEN HOU L 10-24 21 45 309 1 3 6 44 2 -135
Cam Newton 2014 10 CAR PHI L 21-45 25 40 306 2 3 9 91 2 -158
Tyrod Taylor 2015 2 BUF NE L 32-40 23 30 242 3 3 8 53 2 -78
Josh Rosen 2018 7 ARI DEN L 10-45 21 39 194 1 3 6 40 3 -229

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Patrick Mahomes KC
28/39
358
4
1
2
189
174
15
CIN
Mahomes spent a lot of time in the red zone, and he usually delivered when he was there. Inside the Cincinnati 20, he went 7-of-10 for 56 yards and four touchdowns, with two sacks. (The Buffalo Bills, as a team, have two red zone touchdown throws this season.)
2.
Matt Ryan ATL
31/39
379
1
0
3
143
142
2
NYG
3.
Matthew Stafford DET
18/22
217
2
0
1
135
125
9
MIA
Stafford threw seven passes against Miami that traveled at least 14 yards past the line of scrimmage. One was incomplete. Four were completed for a total of 92 yards. Two others resulted in DPIs of 15 and 25 yards.
4.
Drew Brees NO
22/30
212
2
0
1
130
121
10
BAL
Brees threw four passes that traveled at least 23 yards past the line of scrimmage. Three were completed for gains of 25, 26, and 32 yards. The fourth was a DPI for a gain of 25.
5.
Philip Rivers LAC
19/26
306
2
0
2
117
117
0
TEN
Each of Rivers' first four throws resulted in a first down, including a 75-yard touchdown to Tyrell Williams on his first throw of the game. He also had a 55-yard touchdown to Mike Williams. That's good, because he was useless in the red zone -- just one completion (a 4-yard gain on first-and-10) in five attempts.
6.
Tom Brady NE
25/36
277
3
1
1
103
104
-1
CHI
Gronk or no Gronk, Brady had most of his success attacking the middle of the Bears defense: 10-of-13 for 146 yards with eight first downs and one touchdown.
7.
Andrew Luck IND
17/23
156
4
0
0
101
107
-7
BUF
Luck was perfect inside the Buffalo 30-yard line: 6-of-6 for 67 yards. Each of those throws picked up a first down, including four touchdowns.
8.
Cam Newton CAR
26/39
269
2
0
2
98
90
8
PHI
First three quarters: 9-of-16 for 68 yards and three first downs, with two sacks and an intentional grounding, for -60 DYAR. But then in the fourth quarter he had 149 DYAR -- no other quarterback had more than 56, and that includes overtime. In that fourth quarter, Newton went 16-of-22 for 201 yards and 10 first downs, including both of his touchdowns.
9.
Carson Wentz PHI
30/37
310
2
0
4
66
69
-3
CAR
Wentz, fittingly, was the opposite of Newton. Through three quarters, he had gone 23-of-27 for 281 yards and 13 first downs (six in a row at one point) for 128 DYAR, third behind Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers. But he had only two first downs in the fourth quarter, going 6-of-9 for 29 yards with one DPI (for 48 yards, to be fair), two sacks, and one fumble. That adds up to -60 DYAR.
10.
Eli Manning NYG
27/38
399
1
0
4
66
83
-17
ATL
11.
Mitchell Trubisky CHI
26/49
333
2
2
2
55
16
39
NE
A slow start and a hot finish. In the first half, Trubisky went 8-of-20 for 92 yards with four first downs and a sack. He had some success over the next 20 minutes or so, but also threw two interceptions and took another sack. And then on his last two drives, he went 8-of-9 for 132 yards and seven first downs. Obviously, that includes the Hail Mary that wasn't quite answered.
12.
Kirk Cousins MIN
25/40
241
2
0
1
54
54
0
NYJ
Cousins didn't have much luck in obvious passing situations. With 10 or more yards to go, he went 15-of-22 for 95 yards. The first of those completions was a 34-yard touchdown to Adam Thielen, but none of the others gained a first down or more than 8 yards. He also had a 3-yard DPI and one sack.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Joe Flacco BAL
23/39
279
2
0
1
53
50
3
NO
Flacco lost 55 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, most of any quarterback this week. His magic passing distance came on throws that traveled 11 to 18 yards downfield, where he went 10-of-14 for 190 yards, with every completion going for a first down.
14.
Marcus Mariota TEN
24/32
237
1
1
2
41
37
4
LAC
On throws that traveled 10 or more yards downfield, Mariota went 5-of-6 for 85 yards.
15.
Deshaun Watson HOU
12/24
139
1
0
1
30
34
-4
JAX
Watson threw a ton of passes to the right, but he didn't have a lot of success when doing it: 6-of-14 for 61 yards and only three first downs.
16.
Brock Osweiler MIA
22/31
239
2
0
4
27
29
-2
DET
Osweiler didn't get much out of his running backs in the passing game: 5-of-9 for 19 yards and no first downs. Frank Gore had one catch for 4 yards; all the other throws went to Kenyan Drake.
17.
Alex Smith WAS
14/25
178
1
0
1
24
21
3
DAL
Smith had his moments at either end of the field, but not in the middle. Between the 40s, he went 2-of-7 for 10 yards with no first downs, one sack, and one aborted snap.
18.
Jared Goff LAR
18/24
202
2
0
2
23
22
1
SF
Throws to targets within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage: 8-of-10, but for only 28 yards and one first down (a touchdown, to be fair). Deeper than that: 12-of-17 for 186 yards and nine first downs. That's not an atypical split, but it is extreme.
19.
Dak Prescott DAL
22/35
273
1
0
4
22
16
6
WAS
On third downs, Prescott went 3-of-6 for 29 yards with one conversion, three sacks, and one fumble that was recovered by Washington for a touchdown. He also completed a pass to Blake Jarwin for a 16-yard gain on fourth-and-13.
20.
Case Keenum DEN
14/21
161
1
1
2
20
16
4
ARI
Throwing to his left, Keenum went 6-of-9 for 41 yards with two first downs and one interception.
21.
Jameis Winston TB
32/52
365
0
2
4
15
-4
19
CLE
Winston only threw two passes in the red zone; both were incomplete. He had very mixed results on throws up the middle. On the one hand, he went 8-of-13 for 96 yards and seven first downs; on the other, two of those incompletions were intercepted by the Browns.
22.
Blake Bortles JAX
6/12
61
0
0
0
-32
-15
-17
HOU
Only two of Bortles' completions gained 10 yards or more; one of those was thrown 2 yards downfield to Donte Moncrief, who added 22 yards after the catch.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Baker Mayfield CLE
23/34
215
2
0
5
-33
-30
-3
TB
Only Joe Flacco lost more DYAR to opponent adjustments than Mayfield. Mayfield's 68 percent completion rate and 6.3 yards per pass are both the lowest of any quarterback playing against Tampa Bay this season, and Mayfield was sacked five times by a defense that only had 11 sacks in its first five games. He did not complete a pass that gained 10 yards or more in the first half, when he went 10-of-16 for 62 yards with as many first downs (two) as sacks. That includes a string of 16 straight dropbacks without a first down that stretched into the third quarter. On second downs, he went 5-of-10 for 35 yards with as many first downs (one) as sacks.
24.
Andy Dalton CIN
15/29
148
1
1
2
-100
-100
0
KC
Well here are some weird splits: with more than 10 yards to go for a first down, Dalton went 3-for-3 with three conversions, for a total of 73 yards. With less than 10 yards to go for a first down, he went 5-of-14 for 10 yards with one DPI, one sack-fumble, and only three conversions. (With exactly 10 yards to go, he went 7-of-11 for 65 yards with two conversions, one sack, and one pick-six.)
25.
Cody Kessler JAX
21/30
151
1
1
4
-104
-107
3
HOU
All of Kessler's passes came with Jacksonville down by at least 13 points in the second half. On first downs, he went 8-of-10, but for only 55 yards and two conversions, with three sacks and a fumble.
26.
Derek Anderson BUF
20/31
188
0
3
2
-160
-160
0
IND
By total passing DYAR, the Bills have 2018's worst quarterback in Josh Allen, the third-worst quarterback in Nathan Peterman, and now the ninth-worst quarterback in Derek Anderson. If you could combine them into NaDerJosh PetAllenSon, you would have the worst Voltron ever. On the last five drives of the game -- all of which came with a deficit of at last 19 points -- Anderson went 6-of-14 for 58 yards with two first downs, two interceptions, and one sack-fumble. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-7 for 31 yards with just one conversion (which came on his first third-down throw), two sacks, and a fumble.
27.
C.J. Beathard SF
15/27
170
1
2
7
-172
-175
4
LAR
Third-/fourth-down passing: 2-of-6 for 19 yards with one conversion (a 10-yard touchdown to George Kittle), four sacks, and an interception. Beathard threw seven deep balls against the Rams, completing one to his team and one to Los Angeles.
28.
Sam Darnold NYJ
17/42
206
1
3
3
-212
-224
12
MIN
Darnold only had six first downs in this game, and three of them came on back-to-back-to-back throws to close out the first quarter on gains of 35, 25, and 12 yards and a touchdown. Before that, he went 3-of-6 for 15 yards and no first downs; after that, he went 11-of-33 for 119 yards with three first downs, three interceptions, and one aborted snap. On third downs, he went 2-of-10 for 21 yards with no conversions. This was Darnold's fourth game with at least 20 passes and a completion rate of 50 percent or worse; the rest of the league has ten such games, and Deshaun Watson is the only other player with more than one.
29.
Josh Rosen ARI
21/39
194
1
3
6
-226
-230
4
DEN
In the first half, Rosen went 8-of-17 for 60 yards with more sacks and pick-sixes (two of each) than first downs (one). He did throw for eight first downs in the second half, but all of them came with Arizona down by at least 32 points. The few good plays Rosen did have almost all came up the middle; to the left and right sides, he went 12-of-25 for 73 yards, two first downs, and all three interceptions. Inside the Denver 40, he went 1-of-8 for 4 yards with one touchdown and one interception.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kareem Hunt KC
15
86
1
5/6
55
2
68
24
44
CIN
Hunt had seven first downs on the ground, including gains of 11, 16, and 21 yards, and he was stuffed just one time. All of his receptions qualified as successful plays, and four produced first downs.
2.
Marlon Mack IND
19
126
1
2/3
33
1
57
42
15
BUF
Mack only ran for five first downs against the Bills, but he gained at least 4 yards on 14 carries, including gains of 10, 15, 20, and 23 yards, while being stuffed three times. He also had a 29-yard touchdown catch.
3.
James White NE
11
40
0
8/10
57
2
57
13
44
CHI
Only two rushing first downs and a long run of only 8 yards, but he was stuffed just one time. All of his catches counted as successful plays, and six produced first downs.
4.
Dion Lewis TEN
13
91
0
6/6
64
0
56
23
33
LAC
Lewis' three first downs on the ground gained 12, 17, and 36 yards; he was stuffed three times. Five of his catches counted as successful plays, and three went for first downs.
5.
Alvin Kamara NO
17
64
1
2/2
11
0
37
37
0
BAL
Kamara had four first downs on the ground, while being stuffed twice.


Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Lamar Miller HOU
22
100
1
1/3
-1
0
34
47
-13
JAX
Miller ran for five first downs against the Jaguars, while being stuffed three times. Twelve of his 22 carries gained 4 yards or more.
2.
Marlon Mack IND
19
126
1
2/3
33
1
57
42
15
BUF
3.
Alvin Kamara NO
17
64
1
2/2
11
0
37
37
0
BAL
4.
Phillip Lindsay DEN
14
90
1
1/1
6
0
29
25
4
ARI
Lindsay was stuffed five times against Arizona and only ran for three first downs, but those first downs went for 11, 22, and 28 yards.
5.
Raheem Mostert SF
7
59
0
4/4
19
0
24
25
-1
LAR
All of Mostert's carries gained at least 1 yard, four resulted in first downs, and three went for at least 11 yards. Right about now, a lot of you are probably wondering where Kerryon Johnson (who had 19 carries for 158 yards against Miami) is. With 24 rushing DYAR, he just missed the list. There was a lot of bust to go with Johnson's boom -- he gained 133 yards on his five first downs, but only 25 yards on his other 14 runs. He was stuffed six times, including a failed run on third-and-1.


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Joe Mixon CIN
13
50
0
3/5
1
0
-62
-28
-34
KC
This is largely due to opponent adjustments, which dropped Mixon's rushing DYAR from -3 to -28. Mixon is the seventh player to get at least ten runs against Kansas City in a single game in 2018. The other six all averaged at least 4.3 yards per carry, with a collective average of 5.3; Mixon's average was just 3.9. Mind you, he did have a terrible day as a receiver. Two of his targets resulted in incompletions, and his receptions were a 2-yard gain on third-and-5, a 3-yard gain on first-and-10, and a 4-yard loss on second-and-6. Mixon actually had a better DVOA on his incompletions (-109.0%) than on his catches (-123.8%).


Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Corey Clement PHI
8
6
0
2/2
16
0
-28
-36
8
CAR
Only one first down on the ground, a long gain of just 4 yards, two stuffs, one fumble, and a failure to convert on third-and-2.


Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
John Brown BAL
7
7
134
19.1
1
60
NO
Six of Brown's catches produced at least 13 yards and a first down, including a 56-yard gain and conversions on third-and-6 and fourth-and-7.
2.
Odell Beckham NYG
8
11
143
17.9
1
50
ATL
Beckham's totals include 55 DYAR receiving, -5 DYAR rushing for his one carry for a 1-yard loss.
3.
Tyrell Williams LAC
4
4
118
29.5
1
46
TEN
Williams' four targets: 75-yard touchdown; 26-yard gain on second-and-8; 6-yard gain on first-and-10; 11-yard gain on third-and-12.
4.
Adam Thielen MIN
9
10
110
12.2
1
45
NYJ
Thielen did have four failed completions, but he also had six first downs, including a 3-yard gain on a DPI and a 34-yard touchdown catch.
5.
Travis Kelce KC
5
5
95
19.0
0
43
CIN
All of Kelce's catches produced first downs, including two third-down conversions.


Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Stefon Diggs MIN
8
14
33
4.1
0
-68
NYJ
Diggs' totals include -58 DYAR receiving, -9 DYAR rushing for his two carries, a 6-yard loss and a 1-yard loss. Two of his catches also lost yardage, which means in 16 combined attempts to get Diggs the ball, he totaled just 26 yards and gained positive yardage only six times. He had only one first down, a long catch of 10 yards, and failed to convert on four plays with 6 yards or less to go for a first down.

Comments

51 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2018, 1:25pm

1 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Bobman // Oct 23, 2018 - 5:06am

1st
Holy crap, I may have to bronze my laptop; a Colts RB in the top five.
I'll wait until the end of the season to judge, but this may be what the Colts management saw in Mack that made it logical to say farewell to Gore and not fret about Barkley in the draft. Last year he was mainly a bounce-it-outside speedster, but yesterday he appeared to have plenty of torque between the tackles and after contact as well.

Maybe this OL lineup sticks around for more than a game or two to develop continuity. (First 200-yd rushing game in a decade plus two consecutive games with no sacks for Luck, only the second time in his career). I know Buffalo's O was struggling all year, but their D was competent, no?

Login or Register to post comments

30 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Purds // Oct 23, 2018 - 2:00pm

I'm with you Bobman. I think we have seen a unicorn!

Login or Register to post comments

2 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Oct 23, 2018 - 5:51am

Lack of fortune has little to do with lack of success for Cousins in obvious passing situations, unless "didn't have much luck" is synonymous with "offensive line couldn't pass block 4 parking cones".

Login or Register to post comments

13 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by peterplaysbass // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:31am

The play calling needs to be better. They were throwing deep downfield on 2nd and 10 - it was maddening.

Login or Register to post comments

3 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by RobotBoy // Oct 23, 2018 - 6:31am

White not getting stuffed speaks to the push from NE O-Line in recent weeks. Even without their best lineman, they continued to open holes. Between the tackles, White doesn't run well - he doesn't seem to read the openings and goes down pretty quickly. Different story in the open field.

Bledsoe was so stiff he made Brady look like Michael Vick. In a clean pocket, Bledsoe processed things well but he had no ability to shuffle and reset and very little sense of where he was going to be pressured. He was a big guy and you'd see his helmet as the rush collapsed the pocket. He looked like the captain of a sinking ship standing at attention even as the waves washed over him.

Login or Register to post comments

4 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by ammek // Oct 23, 2018 - 8:11am

Cumulative passing DYAR of this week's top ten QBs over the past five full seasons (2013-17): 33,265.

Of this week's bottom ten QBs: 5,237, more than half of it by Andy Dalton alone.

Experience matters.

Login or Register to post comments

7 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by cstoos // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:02am

Unless you are Patrick Mahomes, apparently.

Login or Register to post comments

11 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by sbond101 // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:25am

DYAR doesn't split between QB play and receiver play (with the exception of scramble play, which is only slightly less dependent). Pat Mahomes has one of the best supporting casts on offense that I've seen assembled in the last 5 years - not to critique what he's done too much but it looks to me like the late 90's Vikings, it's not really fair to evaluate the QB beyond that he clearly has a basic level of competence. Put Pat Mahomes on the Bills and who knows what you'd get.

Login or Register to post comments

15 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:55am

A better Bills team and a worse Chiefs team.

But yes, situation matters for any player, especially a young QB.

So on that front, here's another question: put Josh Allen on the Chiefs with Andy Reid as his coach and the rest of that talent base, and what do you get? (Answer: Alex Smith still playing for and starting for the Chiefs and Andy Reid wishing he'd replaced the batteries on his mouse so that his computer wouldn't have auto-drafted a QB).

Login or Register to post comments

19 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Noah Arkadia // Oct 23, 2018 - 12:08pm

Absolutely. I'm one of the biggest "context matters" guys out there, but that doesn't mean all QBs are equal. Mahomes has been extraordinary beyond his supporting cast, making unbelievable throws. And Allen, well. I'm sure he'd look decent in the 2016 Cowboys and everyone would be talking about what a sagacious pick that was.

Login or Register to post comments

5 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Jose21crisis // Oct 23, 2018 - 8:51am

Not really related to the quick reads, but I'm going to ask anyway. Why half the world (And the MNF crew) piled on Pat Shumur's decision to go for 2, when it was the smart call?

Login or Register to post comments

6 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Oct 23, 2018 - 8:54am

Because confirmation bias makes everybody stupid?

Login or Register to post comments

22 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Pat // Oct 23, 2018 - 12:30pm

Confirmation bias? What confirmation bias? The Giants scored two touchdowns, and got 14 points out of it. Kicking the point after on both of them leads to the same result. The Giants lost by a field goal, not by a missed 2 point conversion. That missed 2-pt attempt didn't help or hurt them in the least.

I'm thinking they were just stupid to begin with.

Login or Register to post comments

25 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Noah Arkadia // Oct 23, 2018 - 1:23pm

It sounds like you're saying the 2-pt conversion wasn't the right play, but I'm probably misunderstanding you.

Login or Register to post comments

27 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Pat // Oct 23, 2018 - 1:33pm

Yeah, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that it makes no sense whatsoever to criticize the 2-pt conversion. Even if you suffer from confirmation bias and assume the outcome proves it was a bad decision, after the second 2-point conversion, which they made, it makes the decision irrelevant. Heck, after the Falcons made the field goal, it made the decision irrelevant.

But of course that would require people to apply their illogical biases logically.

Login or Register to post comments

28 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Oct 23, 2018 - 1:47pm

That's kind of the point. A committed irrationalist is REALLY committed.

Login or Register to post comments

49 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Noah Arkadia // Oct 24, 2018 - 11:37am

Yeah, the broadcast was funny that way, when even after the second 2-pt conversion was made the announcer (McFarland, I think?) kept on with the same criticism.

Login or Register to post comments

8 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:09am

Because you're trusting the sagacious advice of a Cowboys tight end and a guy named "Booger".

Login or Register to post comments

10 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Travis // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:16am

Because the Giants had already failed on multiple must-score plays from the 2-yard-line, and have shown no ability to scheme people open in goal-to-go plays?

Login or Register to post comments

12 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Jose21crisis // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:26am

They actually managed to get Odell open for just enough time to get him the ball on a 4th and goal. Eli simply didn't threw him the ball (Pat Shumur was visibly upset after that play). At least on the 2 point play, the playcalling was better than Vrabel's playcalling against the Chargers (although still somewhat suspect, because you have Saquon in the backfield).

Login or Register to post comments

14 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:36am

I was really shocked that Eli so badly missed which receiver to throw to on the 4th and goal. I mean, Beckham is the first option, it was right in front of Eli, and it was not a difficult pass; it just had to be thrown on time. His age/performance curve is way out on the right tail now, and plummeting.

Login or Register to post comments

17 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Joe Pancake // Oct 23, 2018 - 10:35am

He missed a lot of open receivers. Each time he did, the camera would show him pouting and motioning as if the receiver ran a bad route. I don't know enough about the X's and O's to really evaluate this one way or the other, but common sense dictates if a receiver is in a wide-open space and the QB doesn't get him the ball, it's probably on the QB.

Login or Register to post comments

21 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by ChrisS // Oct 23, 2018 - 12:20pm

I do not listen too carefully to the broadcast but I thought Witten somewhat defended the call.

Login or Register to post comments

9 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by swiggy // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:11am

Point of clarification: I believe Aaron has stated that Hail Mary attempts are not counted in DVOA/DYAR. Is that true even if the Hail Mary attempt succeeds (i.e. does Trubisky get credit for a successful Hail Mary, but no penalty if the pass is incomplete or intercepted)?

Login or Register to post comments

16 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by nat // Oct 23, 2018 - 10:04am

I thought it was simply a matter of recognizing that the offense is indifferent to interceptions on Hail Mary plays: they get treated as an incomplete pass, not a turnover.

Login or Register to post comments

18 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Bright Blue Shorts // Oct 23, 2018 - 11:27am

Re: the 3-6-3 club, I was thinking that Elway would likely be a member as he was high on the list of career fumbles and a bit of an interception machine on a bad day plus playing in the AFC West with those Raiders and Chiefs defenses.

Anyway a quick look through PFR suggests there is just ONE game in his career where he was sacked six times and intercepted three. And Denver fumbled SIX times losing three of them.

It's this 1989 game against Buddy Ryan's Eagles ... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198910290den.htm

Login or Register to post comments

20 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 23, 2018 - 12:11pm

Rosen was bad, but not THAT bad, considering the Broncos excellent pass defense that DVOA insanely ranks 20th

Login or Register to post comments

37 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by tunesmith // Oct 23, 2018 - 4:45pm

Probably not so insane - ever since Wade left, Woods has been intent on experimenting more with zone, and the Broncos just aren't good at it. And then they come back to man, and they're still really good at that. Roby is a good example.

Login or Register to post comments

23 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Pat // Oct 23, 2018 - 12:40pm

Remember when announcers were fawning over the rookie QBs this year and how they looked good (or at least 'promising')? All of them in their first game or two producing at replacement-level or slightly above.

Man, how a couple of weeks changes things - those same rookie QBs are now 29th, 32nd, 33rd, and 34th in DYAR. At some point, people will realize that pretty much all quarterbacks get a slight boost their first game or so.

Login or Register to post comments

31 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by mehllageman56 // Oct 23, 2018 - 2:04pm

Darnold really just had a bad game, which was made worse by the Jets losing two of their top four recievers, and the wind at Met Life stadium which effected Cousins a lot as well. He looked fine the last two games, even if the stats don't say it. I still think Baker looks promising. And the Ravens will play Lamar Jackson, but not let him throw. Rosen surprised me with how bad he looked last Thursday. He's the one I'd be worried about right now.

Josh Allen doesn't count.

Login or Register to post comments

24 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Pat // Oct 23, 2018 - 1:06pm

"By total passing DYAR, the Bills have 2018's worst quarterback in Josh Allen, the third-worst quarterback in Nathan Peterman, and now the ninth-worst quarterback in Derek Anderson. If you could combine them into NaDerJosh PetAllenSon, you would have the worst Voltron ever."

I realize that it would probably take a bit of work, but the Bills have *got* to be on pace for worst total QB passing DYAR ever, right? Right now they've got -909, on pace for -2077. Lowest I can see by eye since 2000:

JAX 2014 -1204 DYAR
JAX 2011 -1259 DYAR
SF 2005 -1264 DYAR
CHI 2004 -1352 DYAR

That total by Chicago in 2004 was mostly the memorable trio of Jonathan Quinn, Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel after Grossman tore his ACL in 2004. Grossman played the first 3 weeks with moderately competent play (basically 0 DYAR) so the remaining group - who I remember as so godawful it turned into the joke of "there is no Krenzel, there is no Grossman, there is only 'Bears QB'" - put up -102 DYAR per game.

Let me restate that just so it's clear: the Bills are about *70%* of the way to the lowest total quarterback passing DYAR total since 2000, with more than half of the season remaining. They're averaging about 30% *worse* than what I remember as the worst set of QBs ever.

At this pace they've got a good shot to hit the top five in like, 3 weeks.

Login or Register to post comments

26 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 23, 2018 - 1:30pm

I'm amused that of that list, three of those QBs are still active and two have started this year.

Login or Register to post comments

32 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Pat // Oct 23, 2018 - 2:06pm

I think you actually missed Alex Smith: that 2005 year was him, amazingly enough (it's hard to remember he's been in the league that long!). So that makes Bortles, Henne, Gabbert, and Smith, with only Chad Henne not starting this year.

To me the more amazing thing is that Smith's starting this year, *and he should be*.

I did actually go back all the way to 1985, and it turns out there was one year worse than those others (with *no one* I remember): the 1992 Seahawks, who ended up with -1529 DYAR, with Stan Gelbaugh, Kelly Stouffer, and Dan McGwire.

One of the amazing things is that these teams, in general, really didn't throw that many interceptions, which you would think would be the way to rack up DYAR. The '92 Seahawks had the 8th most interceptions, '04 Bears had the 19th most, '05 49ers had the 6th most, '11 Jaguars had the 16th most, and '14 Jaguars had the 7th most. They couldn't complete passes to *anyone*, even opposing teams!

What those teams *did* often lead the league in are *sacks*, ranking 1, 1, 5, 8, 1. (Bills are 4th this year so far).

Login or Register to post comments

36 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 23, 2018 - 2:41pm

I actually missed Gabbert.

I just assumed the 2011 Jags were Bortles.

They're so hard to tell apart from their stats.

Login or Register to post comments

29 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Oct 23, 2018 - 1:56pm

"Grossman played the first 3 weeks with moderately competent play (basically 0 DYAR)"

Unless I misunderstand DYAR, I think replacement level (0 DYAR) is well below-average. So Grossman wasn't really competent. His backups sank the 2004 Bears' quarterback play from "pretty bad" to "we're better off using the T formation as our base offense".

Login or Register to post comments

33 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Pat // Oct 23, 2018 - 2:08pm

Yeah, you're right. In my defense, I was staring at tables with numbers like "B.Gabbert JAC -1,009" so seeing "R.Grossman CHI -10" was like looking at Peyton Manning.

Login or Register to post comments

34 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Oct 23, 2018 - 2:15pm

Understandable. The guy who's buried 10 feet underground is not in a great position, but he looks golden compared to the guy who's buried 1000 feet underground.

If Grossman had started the whole year in 2004, I have no doubt he would have accumulated much more negative DYAR, but he still would have been way better than the hideous Quinn-Krenzel-Hutchinson hydra.

Login or Register to post comments

35 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Will Allen // Oct 23, 2018 - 2:21pm

ok, that's pretty funny.....

Login or Register to post comments

38 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by LionInAZ // Oct 23, 2018 - 5:45pm

How did Kerryon Johnson not make the top 5 RBs?

Login or Register to post comments

40 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei // Oct 23, 2018 - 5:51pm

Explained in Raheem Mostert's comment.

Login or Register to post comments

42 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by LionInAZ // Oct 23, 2018 - 6:35pm

I'm not seeing Raheem's comment, or your response.

Never mind. I didn't read the remarks on Mostert. Didn't even know he was football player.

Login or Register to post comments

44 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei // Oct 23, 2018 - 7:09pm

He's actually "31-R.Mostert" in our database. I have to go in and change his name manually in these tables.

Login or Register to post comments

39 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei // Oct 23, 2018 - 5:46pm

He looked like the captain of a sinking ship standing at attention even as the waves washed over him.

This is beautiful. Just beautiful.

Point of clarification: I believe Aaron has stated that Hail Mary attempts are not counted in DVOA/DYAR. Is that true even if the Hail Mary attempt succeeds (i.e. does Trubisky get credit for a successful Hail Mary, but no penalty if the pass is incomplete or intercepted)?

I think somebody else pointed this out, but just to be clear:

Hail Mary completions are treated like any other completion.
Hail Mary incompletions are treated like any other incompletion.
Hail Mary interceptions are treated like incompletions.

Login or Register to post comments

41 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by nat // Oct 23, 2018 - 6:03pm

So Trubisky's complete but unsuccessful Hail Mary is likely to look quite good to VOA and YAR, as it's fifty yards better than the typical result in that situation, despite being ultimately (and literally) pointless.

Makes sense, from the "predictive stat" point of view. The play makes you doubt the Pats defense in future Hail Mary situations, and have hope for the Bears offense.

Login or Register to post comments

43 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by TomC // Oct 23, 2018 - 6:51pm

I am personally shocked that Trubisky had positive passing DYAR for that game (though I didn't get to watch the 4th quarter). By eye and by conventional stats he was brutal in the first half, and that was before the picks (or at least the ones that the Patriots didn't drop). The degree to which the Patriots confused and rattled him, and the awful decisions that resulted, are far more concerning to me as a Bears fan than his tendency to airmail open receivers (which is, I think, mostly correctable mechanics issues).

But hey, he sure does scramble nice. Uniform number as destiny.

Login or Register to post comments

45 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Alternator // Oct 23, 2018 - 9:48pm

The Patriots defense put one guy in position to break up the pass (Gordon, who whiffed) and five guys in position to gang-tackle the poor sod short of the end zone (who succeeded). That play went exactly according to design for the Patriots, and honestly went to design for the Bears too - just a little underthrown.

Login or Register to post comments

46 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by BJR // Oct 24, 2018 - 8:31am

To be honest, I'm struggling to comprehend why Derek Anderson even answered Buffalo's phone calls.

Presumably he's playing for near the veteran minimum right? I don't know how much money he has earned in his career, but he's been in the league for 12 years including a short while as a starter - I'd hope he wasn't short. Why get off the couch to get your brains beaten out for a truly terrible team? Maybe it's just a professional athlete's competitive instincts, that I can't relate to?

Login or Register to post comments

47 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Oct 24, 2018 - 9:49am

I am so so soooo hoping that Anderson calls it a career at halftime of this Monday night game.

(a) Memorable end to a not so memorable career.

(b) Nothing would sum up the "quality" of the current Bills' organization better than having not one, but two veteran players take a good look around after a game and a half and say "I'm out of here".

(c) Prime time Nathan Peterman snaps!

Login or Register to post comments

48 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Oct 24, 2018 - 11:35am

Nathan Peterman car crash porn would be the only reason I would ever purposefully tune into a Bills game this season.

Login or Register to post comments

50 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by Bright Blue Shorts // Oct 24, 2018 - 12:16pm

Anderson's getting paid $1million while Peterman gets paid $660Km and Allen gets paid $4m.

He's 35 and at the end of his career. Where else will he earn $500,000 in game checks for two and a half months work? It's easy money and maybe just maybe he's not ready to retire. The tough part of being a veteran is having to sit through OTAs, training camp etc, etc. He gets to walk in, learn a playbook and then play football.

If you actually love your sport then retirement is tough. You suddenly have to deal with sitting on the couch, finding a new job, miss the camaraderie of what you've been doing the past 20+ years of your life since PeeWee league.

He's not been a full-time starter since 2009. This is pretty much his last chance to play football at all. I suspect there are good emotional, competitive reasons for him to take Buffalo's phone calls along with earning easy money.

Login or Register to post comments

51 Re: Week 7 Quick Reads

by BJR // Oct 24, 2018 - 1:25pm

Well, I think I'd still dispute the 'easy money' part. There is significant physical risk for any player setting foot on an NFL field, not least a QB on a terrible team, with a bad O-line, and extremely limited knowledge of the playbook (assuming there is one). I'd imagine Anderson has banked upwards of $20m in his career; I don't know why he would want to face the ignominy of being involved in such a hopeless cause, whilst risking his long term health. But, yeah, maybe it's just his competitive nature.

Login or Register to post comments