Quick Reads
The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 10 Quick Reads

Chris Godwin
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans had a good game against Arizona this week, catching four passes for 82 yards in six targets. It was good for 34 DYAR, and though that wasn't enough to put Evans in the top five receivers this week, it was enough to put him in first place among wide receivers this season with 296 DYAR (going into Monday Night Football). He replaces his teammate, Chris Godwin, who had been in first place since Week 4, but fell to fourth place after a rough outing against the Cardinals (12 targets, six catches, 74 yards, only two first downs, -34 DYAR). That is the exception for Godwin this season, however, not the rule -- he made the top five receivers list in Weeks 2, 4, 5, and 6.

For Evans, the limelight is nothing new. The Texas A&M product was the seventh overall draft pick in 2014. He has never finished lower than 27th in receiving DYAR among wideouts, and this would be his third season in the top six. Godwin's emergence has been more gradual -- and surprising. He only started two years at Penn State, and after catching 11 touchdowns as a junior in 2016, he skipped his senior season to enter the 2017 NFL draft. Though he was thought to be on the high end of wideout prospects that season, he lasted until the third round, when Tampa Bay grabbed him with the 84th pick. His first two seasons were quiet, as he failed to make the top 30 in DYAR either year. But he has exploded in 2019 -- his 60 catches are already a career-high, and he needs only 2 more yards and one more touchdown to match his prior standards in those categories as well. And our advanced stats, obviously, are big fans.

It's not terribly unusual for one team to have two receivers rank this high in receiving DYAR. The Bucs would be the 13th team since 1986 with two wide receivers in the top four, and the first since Jordy Nelson ranked second and Randall Cobb fourth for the Packers in 2014. One pair of teammates has taken home the gold and the silver in our seasonal wideout rankings: the Colts in in 2006, when Marvin Harrison finished first and Reggie Wayne finished second. But this is 2019, and in 2019, teams are passing more than they used to -- and when teams throw more passes, the top wide receivers get more DYAR. Evans and Godwin have each started every one of Tampa Bay's nine games this season, combining for 584 receiving DYAR between them. Project that out over 16 games and you get a total of 1,039 DYAR. That would be the most on record for a wide receiver duo on the same team, and make them the first pair to top the 1,000-DYAR threshold.

Top WR Duos by DYAR, 1986-2019
Year Team WR1 DYAR Rk WR2 DYAR Rk Total
DYAR
Lead QB Pass
Off
DVOA
2019* TB M.Evans 526 1 C.Godwin 513 4 1039 J.Winston 4.7%
2006 IND M.Harrison 508 1 R.Wayne 473 2 981 P.Manning 55.4%
1989 SF J.Rice 563 1 J.Taylor 409 3 972 J.Montana 51.7%
2014 GB J.Nelson 482 2 R.Cobb 479 4 962 A.Rodgers 46.5%
2007 NE R.Moss 568 1 W.Welker 374 4 942 T.Brady 72.7%
2004 IND R.Wayne 477 1 B.Stokley 383 4 860 P.Manning 67.6%
1999 MIN R.Moss 426 2 C.Carter 425 3 851 J.George 25.9%
2009 NE W.Welker 437 3 R.Moss 402 5 839 T.Brady 53.5%
2000 STL I.Bruce 433 3 T.Holt 398 4 831 K.Warner 32.6%
1993 SF J.Rice 434 2 J.Taylor 380 3 814 S.Young 44.2%
2013 DEN D.Thomas 430 1 E.Decker 381 4 811 P.Manning 60.3%
2014 DEN E.Sanders 481 3 D.Thomas 317 8 798 P.Manning 40.5%
2011 GB J.Nelson 520 2 G.Jennings 278 10 797 A.Rodgers 67.6%
2000 MIN R.Moss 481 1 C.Carter 309 11 790 D.Culpepper 29.6%
2012 DEN E.Decker 397 4 D.Thomas 354 8 751 P.Manning 49.7%
2000 DEN E.McCaffrey 380 5 R.Smith 369 6 749 B.Griese 32.2%
2017 PIT A.Brown 430 1 J.Smith-Schuster 317 6 747 B.Roethlisberger 34.0%
2008 HOU A.Johnson 506 1 K.Walter 237 15 743 M.Schaub 23.1%
2005 CIN C.Johnson 420 2 T.Houshmandzadeh 308 8 728 C.Palmer 39.0%
1995 DET H.Moore 430 4 B.Perriman 297 8 726 S.Mitchell 32.8%
* Totals projected over 16 games.

What we have here is a list of the most feared throwers and passers of the past three decades. Randy Moss' name appears four times, most of wideout; he's followed by Demaryius Thomas with three mentions, followed seven receivers (Cris Carter, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Reggie Wayne, and Wes Welker) with two apiece. Of the 20 teams listed here, five were led in pass attempts by Peyton Manning, two by Tom Brady, and two more by Aaron Rodgers; other Hall of Fame-caliber names in that column include Joe Montana, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, and Steve Young. Tampa Bay this year is quarterbacked by Jameis Winston, who is not that caliber of player -- but then again, neither were Brian Griese or Scott Mitchell or Matt Schaub, but thanks to the likes of Ed McCaffrey, Herman Moore, and Andre Johnson, they were all able to guide powerful aerial attacks, at least for one season.

These Bucs, though? They're a paradox. Every other team in this table had a passing offense DVOA of at least 23.1%; for reference, that figure would rank 12th in the league this year. Each of these passing games were good, and most were great. The Buccaneers, however, rank 20th this season with a pass offense DVOA of just 4.7%. Somehow, Tampa Bay has put together an offense that features one of the most effective wideout duos in recent memory without actually being very good.

This is because Tampa Bay's passing game is a boom-and-bust affair that vacillates between Death Valley-hot and Siberia-cold. When Evans and Godwin aren't making things right, everything goes very wrong. In only nine games, Winston has taken 34 sacks, most in the league. A high number of sacks will torpedo a team's passing DVOA, but not affect the numbers of its receivers -- even if nobody is getting open and the quarterback is giving up "coverage sacks," the ability to numerically punish receivers for those sacks is way outside our capabilities. Further, Winston also leads the league in interceptions. (We have written about Winston's sacks and interceptions before -- he would join Jon Kitna as the only quarterbacks to lead the league in both categories in the same season.) Interceptions are even worse than sacks when it comes to team DVOA numbers, but are counted the same as any other incompletion for receivers. By their nature, interceptions can be random with no predictive value, especially when dealing with the tiny sample size of individual receiver numbers. Therefore, the blame for interceptions goes to the quarterback, not the receiver. (Obviously, some interceptions are directly the fault of the receiver. We don't get the charting data quickly enough to incorporate that into DVOA/DYAR, but we do cover it at the end of the year.) For the record, Evans and Godwin have each been the target on four of Winston's interceptions. Cleveland's Jarvis Landry and Keenan Allen of the Chargers lead the league with five intercepted targets. If you remove sacks and interceptions from all teams, then Tampa Bay jumps up to fourth place in pass offense DVOA this season, a ranking far more fitting for what Evans and Godwin have done.

Per Spotrac.com, the Buccaneers have Evans under contract for four more years, while Godwin's rookie deal lasts through 2020. Winston, however, will be a free agent after the season. If the Bucs are wise, they'll say goodbye to Winston, in hopes of finding another quarterback who can let Evans and Godwin do what they do without making so many catastrophic mistakes.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dak Prescott DAL
28/46
397
3
1
1
242
242
0
MIN
From the middle of the second quarter to the middle of the fourth, Prescott put together this rather insane stretch of football: 19-of-27 for 309 yards, with every completion going for a first down, including three touchdowns. His interception came on a Hail Mary at the end of the game, and is counted as an incompletion for DVOA/DYAR purposes.
2.
Patrick Mahomes KC
36/50
446
3
0
2
193
193
0
TEN
Mahomes was amazing on Kansas City's side of the field, but not so much after crossing the 50. In Tennessee territory, he went 17-of-24 for only 138 yards, with a pair of sacks. He did throw two touchdowns, both of them in the red zone, but only had three other first downs past midfield.
3.
Lamar Jackson BAL
15/16
223
3
0
0
163
155
8
CIN
Opponent adjustments are now at 100%. Jackson loses 44 DYAR for playing the Bengals. I should also point out that DYAR is a counting stat, and Jackson only had 16 passes and a half-dozen runs. Most other quarterbacks this week saw twice as much action. But in that limited action, Jackson made every throw count, passing for a dozen first downs. That's more than eight other quarterbacks in this table, including some who played well in wins, such as Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Ryan Tannehill.
4.
Kirk Cousins MIN
23/32
220
2
0
1
116
115
1
DAL
The Vikings had the screen game working against Dallas. Cousins completed eight of nine throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, gaining 91 yards and five first downs.
5.
Aaron Rodgers GB
17/29
233
0
0
2
104
106
-2
CAR
Though his biggest plays came on throws to his right or down the middle, most of Rodgers' throws went to his left, where he went 10-of-15 for 87 yards, plus two more throws for DPIs of 6 and 20 yards.
6.
Russell Wilson SEA
24/33
232
1
1
5
72
54
18
SF
Wilson gains -- are you ready? -- ONE-HUNDRED AND NINETEEN DYAR due to opponent adjustments. One of these weeks I will break down just how great the good defenses this year are -- and also the sad state of the bad defenses.
7.
Sam Darnold NYJ
19/30
230
1
0
2
60
41
19
NYG
Darnold played very well at the beginning of this game, and very well at the end, but went into a deep freeze in the middle. From the start of the second quarter till the last minute of the third, nearly 30 minutes of football, he failed to pick up a first down, going 3-of-11 for 14 yards and two sacks.
8.
Mason Rudolph PIT
22/38
242
1
0
3
51
51
0
LAR
Rudolph spent most of this game throwing short passes to the perimeter. On passes marked "short left" or "short right," he went 14-of-23 for only 107 yards and five first downs.
9.
Derek Carr OAK
21/31
218
1
0
3
49
49
0
LAC
Carr was effective on first and second downs against the Chargers, but not so much on third downs, where he went 4-of-7 for 45 yards with three conversions (including a touchdown) and two sacks.
10.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
13/19
181
2
0
4
41
28
13
KC
Nearly two-thirds of Tannehill's passing yardage came on four plays: a 20-yard completion to Tajae Sharpe in the first quarter, a 52-yarder to Kalif Raymond in the second, and finally a 20-yard completion to Anthony Firkser that set up his 23-yard winning touchdown to Adam Humphries.
11.
Baker Mayfield CLE
26/38
238
2
0
2
36
34
3
BUF
Mayfield picked up two DPIs in this game. They gained a total of zero yards, because Cleveland was already at the goal line anyway. He only threw five passes down the middle, none deeper that 2 yards past the line of scrimmage, completing two of them for a total of 5 yards.
12.
Jeff Driskel DET
27/44
269
1
1
2
30
11
19
CHI
Driskel gains 47 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He had a very bad day in scoring range. He only threw for one first down inside the Chicago 40-yard line, where he went 5-of-10 for 25 yards with a sack.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Kyler Murray ARI
27/44
324
3
1
2
20
-3
23
TB
Murray loses 45 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He and the Cardinals struggled in the red zone, where he went 3-of-6 for 21 yards with an interception. One of those completions resulted in a touchdown, but another was fumbled away to Tampa Bay -- that doesn't affect Murray's numbers, but it was a huge play in a game the Cardinals lost by three points.
14.
Matt Ryan ATL
20/35
182
2
1
1
19
8
11
NO
Ryan threw for nine first downs in this game, and four of them came on throws that traveled 10 or 11 yards downfield, where he went 4-of-5 for 46 yards.
15.
Josh Allen BUF
22/41
266
0
0
1
15
12
3
CLE
Allen threw four passes in the red zone; all were incomplete.
16.
Kyle Allen CAR
28/43
307
1
1
3
10
9
1
GB
As mentioned last week, all quarterbacks named "Allen" tend to concentrate in Quick Reads. This is the third week in a row, and the fourth time this season, that Josh and Kyle have either gone back-to-back in the quarterback rankings, or been separated by just one player. It's starting to get creepy. Kyle Allen was most effective down the middle against Green Bay, going 10-of-14 for 122 yards.
17.
Mitchell Trubisky CHI
16/23
173
3
0
5
9
26
-17
DET
Trubisky's game was the opposite of Darnold's. Each of his eight first downs came on a 12-play stretch between the second and third quarters, when he completed nine passes for 132 yards and picked up a DPI for 22 more.
18.
Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA
21/33
169
0
1
3
-35
-48
14
IND
The theme this week is "quarterbacks who had long stretches of ineffective play." From the middle of the second quarter to partway through the fourth, Fitzpatrick went nearly 30 minutes without throwing for a first down, going 5-of-12 for 7 yards (yes) with an interception and two sacks.
19.
Daniel Jones NYG
26/40
308
4
0
6
-40
-45
5
NYJ
And here's another one. Jones' 15-yard touchdown to Golden Tate put the Giants up 27-21 with more than five minutes left in the third quarter. He only picked up one more first down the rest of the game, going 7-of-15 for 48 yards with three sacks. Jones loses 40 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
20.
Ryan Finley CIN
16/30
167
1
1
2
-71
-71
0
BAL
And another! Finley only threw for two first downs in his last 16 dropbacks, going 6-of-14 for 51 yards with two sacks and a fumble that was returned for a Baltimore touchdown.
21.
Jared Goff LAR
22/41
243
0
2
4
-104
-104
0
PIT
Goff gains 78 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He especially struggled in scoring range -- inside the Pittsburgh 40, he only completed two of his seven passes for a total of 19 yards and no first downs. An eighth throw did pick up 3 yards and a first down on a DPI.
22.
Philip Rivers LAC
17/31
207
2
3
5
-106
-106
0
OAK
At one point in the fourth quarter, Rivers picked up first downs on six straight throws: two DPIs for 20 total yards, and four completions for 48 yards and a go-ahead touchdown. When he got the ball back, the Chargers were losing again, and he responded with six straight incomplete passes, followed by a game-sealing interception.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Jameis Winston TB
31/48
358
1
2
4
-111
-122
11
ARI
Winston loses 77 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He had approximately a bazillion dropbacks against Arizona, but few were on third down, and even fewer were successful on third down: 5-of-9 for 43 yards with only three conversions and two interceptions.
24.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
24/45
248
1
1
5
-115
-117
3
SEA
25.
Drew Brees NO
32/43
289
0
0
6
-137
-137
0
ATL
Brees loses 107 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He is the ninth player to throw double-digit passes in a game against Atlanta this year, but the first to do so without throwing a touchdown. And it wasn't for lack of opportunity -- Brees' eight red zone dropbacks resulted in three completions for 22 total yards, three incompletions, and two sacks. Speaking of sacks, Brees suffered a half-dozen of them on Sunday. The Falcons only had seven coming into the game.
26.
Brian Hoyer IND
18/39
204
1
3
1
-200
-193
-7
MIA
Hoyer loses 72 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. It's not just that he threw three interceptions, it's when and where he threw them. One came on second-and-goal from the 9, costing the Colts a scoring opportunity. The other two came on first down and set the Dolphins up deep in Colts territory, leading to a field goal and a touchdown. Keep in mind the Colts only lost this game by four points, and their final drive ended in a failed fourth-down pass in the red zone.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dalvin Cook MIN
26
97
1
7/7
86
0
57
7
50
DAL
Cook had seven first downs on the ground, the longest a 23-yarder, while being stuffed five times. Six of his receptions picked up first downs, including gains of 27 and 30 yards.
2.
Melvin Gordon LAC
22
108
1
1/1
25
0
56
43
13
OAK
Seven of Gordon's runs picked up first downs, the longest a 24-yarder, while only three were stuffed.
3.
Derrick Henry TEN
23
188
2
2/2
3
0
29
37
-7
KC
Henry loses 35 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Only one of his carries failed to gain positive yardage, while ten gained first downs, including a 68-yard touchdown.
4.
Aaron Jones GB
13
93
3
0/0
0
0
28
28
0
CAR
Jones loses 27 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was stuffed just once while rushing for five first down, including gains of 13, 13, and 28.
5.
Austin Ekeler LAC
6
19
0
2/2
29
1
27
-2
29
OAK
Ekeler was stuffed twice while rushing for one first down. His two catches were a 23-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 6-yard touchdown. It, uh, wasn't much of a week for running backs. Ekeler would not have made the top 10 last week.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Melvin Gordon LAC
22
108
1
1/1
25
0
56
43
13
OAK
2.
Derrick Henry TEN
23
188
2
2/2
3
0
29
37
-7
KC
3.
Aaron Jones GB
13
93
3
0/0
0
0
28
28
0
CAR
4.
Alexander Mattison MIN
8
52
0
1/1
2
0
15
19
-5
DAL
All of Mattison's carries gained positive yardage, including gains of 12 and 16 yards.
5.
Kenyan Drake ARI
10
35
0
6/7
6
0
-4
19
-23
TB
Drake gains 24 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was stuffed four times in ten carries, but he also had runs of 10 and 17 yards, becoming just the fifth player to break off multiple 10-plus-yard runs against the Bucs this season.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kalen Ballage MIA
20
43
0
4/4
2
0
-64
-48
-16
IND
Ballage's longest carry against Indianapolis gained only 7 yards. None of his 20 runs picked up a first down, and only four counted as successful plays. Five resulted in stuffs.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kalen Ballage MIA
20
43
0
4/4
2
0
-64
-48
-16
IND
Ballage's four receptions: 3-yard gain on first-and-10; zero-yard gain on second-and-5; 2-yard loss on first-and-10; 1-yard gain on second-and-10.

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Christian Kirk ARI
6
10
138
23.0
3
55
TB
This is all about the three touchdowns, which went for 15, 33, and 69 yards. None of Kirk's other catches produced first downs, though he did pick up a fourth-down conversion with an 18-yard DPI on fourth-and-5.
2.
Amari Cooper DAL
11
14
147
13.4
1
55
MIN
Nine of Cooper's catches produced first downs, including a pair of third-down conversions.
3.
Jarvis Landry CLE
9
10
97
10.8
1
51
BUF
Landry had a half-dozen first downs through the air, the longest a gain of 24.
4.
Davante Adams GB
7
10
118
16.9
0
50
CAR
Five of Adams' catches produced first downs, including gains of 37 and 38 yards. He had a sixth first down on a 20-yard DPI.
5.
Randall Cobb DAL
6
8
106
17.7
1
50
MIN
Each of Cobb's receptions produced a first down, including four third-down conversions, and four gained 20 yards or more.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Vance McDonald PIT
3
7
11
3.7
0
-38
LAR
McDonald's totals include -38 DYAR receiving, zero DYAR rushing for his one carry for 2 yards. His three receptions: 3-yard gain on second-and-10; 1-yard loss on first-and-10; 9 yards and a fumble on first-and-10.

Comments

66 comments, Last at 14 Nov 2019, 8:48am

39 Working down this list game…

Working down this list game-by-game, it looks like Mike Gillislee also pulled off this feat in wk 17 of the 2015 season, with 24/28/0 rushing and 0 receptions. So at best Ballage tied the record.

I haven't found a way to do anything like a comprehensive search, and also this list only goes back to 1994 because PFR doesn't have play-by-play data on their site before then.

2 Just so you know.

If I block scripts, this page renders in 157 MB. If I don't, 2.1 GB. That's not ok. Ultimately, you want me to think it's ok, cause I mean, anyone can block scripts.

3 The 1998 duo of Moss and…

The 1998 duo of Moss and Carter missed having their names on this list for the third time by 11 yards. That would have added Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham to Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper, as their qbs who Moss and Carter made look better than they were.

4 Why is

Kalen Ballage playing NFL football? The only plays I see him make are running directly straight into the backs of his linemen.
Maybe its part of the Organic Fish Tank.

24 Is it him or the oline?

In reply to by Otis Taylor89

Last year with Tunsil he averaged 5.3 ypc. Indeed, Gore, Drake, Ballage, and Bolden all averaged well over 4 ypc last year. Miami couldn't keep people off Tannehill last year, but they seemed to run block just fine for all their backs. Suddenly this year none of Miami's backs are effective. Drake saw a similar decline in ability to run this year (although not a pronounced). It was enough to get him shipped out. So I think we can say, Ballage's problems are part him (He wasn't as good as the small sample size in 2018 made him look) and part that they lost their two number one picks at the tackle spot in the same off season and replaced them with street fee agents so their line just isn't opening holes and never gets to the second level.

29 Ballage is pretty lousy,…

Ballage is pretty lousy, though. Even when the blocking is decent he leaves yards on the field. And his pass catching is even worse (duck!).

Drake is a different animal, he's just much better suited for a spread offense, as he's not very good between the tackles, even as he's not great as a passing down back, either. But in space, he's excellent.

8 Are we sure that Kyle Allen…

Are we sure that Kyle Allen and Josh Allen aren't dopplegangers of each other? Also, are we sure Darnold doesn't have a doppleganger as well, who replaces him depending upon the week? Sorry, I'm writing a script for a sequel to Jordan Peele's "Us".

9 Jimmy G

I don't think Jimmy G's -115 DYAR accurately captures how bad he was against an awful Seahawks pass d. He had some passes dropped - but he had nearly as many ints dropped. Woof.

15 Is there anything that…

In reply to by RoninX

Is there anything that Garoppolo is, like, good at? He has poor pocket presence, he isn't consistently accurate, and he makes some really bad decisions both under pressure and in clean pockets. I don't think he's terrible, but he basically seems to profile as a replacement-level starter. Tough assignment last night without his two best receivers for most of the game, but even Kittle's per-game averages are down this season with Jimmy at QB.

18 Garoppolo has an excellent…

Garoppolo has an excellent arm and a quick release.  He can make all the throws.  He also has a strong chin, an underrated skill for a QB -- he can take hits/absorb punishment and keep going.

He wasn't good last night but the line couldn't block Clowney at all, his top 2 receivers missed most of the game, and SF couldn't run the ball at all.  

I think Jimmy is not nearly as good as his 16-3 record suggests but nearly as bad as his detractors say.  At this point he's neither all-pro level nor replacement level, but comfortably slightly above average.

Also, despite being in the league for several years he's still only started 19 total games.  There's reason to think he has upside and could continue to improve with more experience.

20 That seems like a fair…

That seems like a fair assessment. He isn’t the strength of this 49ers team, but he’s perfectly passable provided they can block and catch ok (unlike last night).

The strip sacks were the unforgivable plays last night, rather than the errant throws when he was trying to make something happen late in the game.

23 Maybe I'm not giving him…

Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit for the arm talent and anticipation it takes to hit some of those intermediate-to-deep crossing routes. It just doesn't stand out as much after seeing Nick Mullens hit those same types of passes last year. Not to pretend Mullens was a world beater, but his 8 game 2018 sample doesn't look much different from Garoppolo's 12 starts in 2018-19. Of course, you are right that he might still have some upside to realize given his lack of starts.

26 I think he's better than…

I think he's better than slightly above average and using this game should not be a referendum on his career. 

 

He is perceived as the only thing holding the 49ers back from being a perfect team. Fair enough, but this isn't last year's bears or the year before Jaguars. Jimmy G is a plus at QB, even if he brings more volatility to his game than you would like.

27 "Comfortably slightly above average"

may be a little generous - but even assuming that is the case, the guy is being paid like a top 10 QB (#9 yearly salary with 137 mil total salary - 74mil in guaranteed money) and isn't performing like it. He and Goff are both prototypical QBs from an arm strength and "make all the throws" standpoint and they both can look totally lost in their biggest moments (though not always - which either frustrates you or gives you hope for their careers). If I was down 4 with two minutes to go I think I'd pick a lot of guys in the league to lead my team before I'd pick either of them. 

38 Goff could be just the right…

Goff could be just the right comparison, and one to keep an eye on going forward, because Seattle played the San Francisco offense last night very similarly to how they (and basically everyone since the super bowl) played the Rams with the loaded front to stop the run.

63 I could quibble that there…

I could quibble that there was compelling reason why it would be nonetheless predictive, but I don't have to because it's clear in retrospect that it was.  And with the benefit of hindsight we also see that 2009 saw Brady with many of the flaws you would expect from someone returning from a major knee injury.

64 Jimmy G

He was bad last night—happy feet, poor accuracy, bad decisions. He looked good the week before even accounting for the opposing defense. I think next year will be the year of truth for him as he should have enough experience and be fully recovered from his ACL. Naturally his defense will probably regress, although hopefully Kittle will be healthier and Deebo Samuel looks really promising and should be better in his second year. Bourne or whoever #84 was and Pettis were complete dumpster fires, turning slightly inaccurate throws into key incompletions or interceptions.

Also, I’m not sure if Shanahan has been crucified for this but his game management decisions were terrible. The long FG with rookie kicker on 4th and 1/2 yard, plus honestly he should have played for the tie at the end if the 1st down play wasn’t a success.

58 back up quality

In reply to by RoninX

What Kyle Allen is to the Panthers, Jimmy G is to the 49ers. 

10 I really don't understand…

I really don't understand what Pit's game plan with Mason Rudolf is. Are they sending him out to make these short passes because they are afraid of how long he holds onto the ball and will get sacked too often? It was a frustrating game to watch as a Steelers fan.

12 I like Wilson a lot as a QB,…

I like Wilson a lot as a QB, but it was infuriating to hear Booger laud him at every turn for being the clutchest qb in the NFL. Where did he develop this reputation from? You would think throwing the costliest int in NFL history would forever destroy that narrative (btw, I don't believe in clutch so this isn't a reflection on Wilson the player).

14 Wilson being clutch

I guess it comes from the fact that Wilson has 28 game winning drives since he entered the league in 2012, tied with Mathew Stafford for the most during that time frame.

33 maybe they should- sure…

maybe they should- sure feels like whenever Detroit wins, it takes a heroic performance from Stafford, and like 2 years ago, they went something like 9-7 with eight fourth quarter comebacks by Stafford

44 But the media has never…

But the media has never found a consistent definition for the word clutch. Its not just a sb winning drive, because Joe Flacco has done that and hes never been considered clutch.

 

They are also very weird in who they like and who they revile.

61 No SB game winning drive for Flacco

Ravens up 28-6 in 3rd quarter, never gave up the lead in Super Bowl.  The game winning drive stat is an absurd stat and since you want to go Ravens, here is the only such drive the Ravens have this year:  In overtime against Steelers, Ravens go 3 and out then punt.  Then on Pittsburgh drive Ravens recover fumble and return it to Pittsburgh 34.  The drive is: run Jackson for 3 yards, Ingram for 2 yards, Jackson for 1 yard, kick 46 yard FG and win.  Jackson really got credit for a game winning drive for this performance.  Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers not at top of list since 2012 because they usually lead from start to finish in 4th quarter.  

62 My point is, the whole…

My point is, the whole clutch concept has never been defined at any level. Is it only playoff games? Only 4th quarter playoff games? Or is it even more limited, 4th quarter of SB's?

No one, not even the most ardent Tom Brady fans can iron out a set of criteria because no matter what you choose, clutch is never an any and always, its only a sometimes. 

 

 

 

45 Yeah but the point is,…

Yeah but the point is, someone inane like Booger would never say Stafford is clutch. He'd probably say the same things about Stafford that he would Jimmy G or Kirk Cousins for that matter. There's just no rhyme or reason to any of this.

17 What was especially idiotic…

What was especially idiotic about this was that Booger kept repeating this even AFTER Wilson threw an interception in overtime that would have cost Seattle the game if the 49ers' kicker hadn't missed the subsequent game-winning field goal attempt.  

31 and

said FG try was made after the officials (both on the field and in the replay) completely blew the 49er spot.

I don't know what it takes to reverse a bad spot, but the replay made it quite clear that the RB had gained about a half yard beyond where the ball was spotted.  Minimum.

21 If they are healthy, that is.

That team is decimated at OL/DL with injuries.  2 DL starters on IR now, currently missing 3 OL starters and their swing tackle just got put on IR as well.

Mahomes and that offense should give anyone a run for their money, but unless they are nearer full strength, I don't think they make it deep in the playoffs.

22 Unless it is against

IND, HOU, or BAL  who can all run the ball down their throats. Or, you know, TEN.  And we will see OAK trying to do the same thing—hopefully just as successfully.

28 This team is eerily…

This team is eerily reminiscent of the 2006 Colts, though not as good offensively and better defensively. That team could only win in the regular season when their offense played well enough to hide their defense. When it didn't, it was a loss or an ugly blowout.

Somehow I don't think there's a Bob Sanders ready to save the day for the Chiefs

30 2000 Rams is the team they…

2000 Rams is the team they remind me of.  Still wouldn't be thrilled to draw them in the divisional round (sure, they have to get there first, but, if they do, they'll probably be healthier than they are today, on offense at least)

25 Jeff Driskel's ranking here…

Jeff Driskel's ranking here matches what my eyes told me: His raw numbers didn't look great, but he did reasonably okay for a backup...especially when you consider that it was the Bears defense, and he didn't even know he was going to start until like 5 hours before kickoff.

47 The thing he did best was…

The thing he did best was avoid getting sacked. I was not particularly impressed by his accuracy or decision-making, and the INT was awful. The TD throw on the run was pretty amazing, but a bad QB can uncork one of those every once in a while (see: Mitchell Trubisky, week 3). It was a tough situation, and he did a reasonable job with it, but if Stafford plays I think the Lions win that game comfortably.

43 Lamar Jackson #9 rushing QB

Certainly the Cincy adjustment bears a lot of blame, but it feels a little off to see Lamar as the #9 rushing QB of the week when he turned in the longest TD run by a QB in a number of years. Not counting a kneel down, he had 6 carries for 66 yards, the TD, another First Down, and the option to Griffith that went for 12 yards and a first down (NFL credited Lamar for 3 of those 12 yards and RG III got the other 9). Yet he ranks behind guys like Ryan (2 carries for 13 yards, though both went for first downs) and Driskel's 5 rushes for 37 yards.

52 Anyone find it odd that…

Anyone find it odd that Daniel Jones could go 26/40, 308 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT and still have a below replacement day? I feel like DVOA is flawed if it can't recognize 4 TD to 0 INT as a positive day.

53 Counting the six sacks he…

Counting the six sacks he took, it was 258 net passing yards on 46 dropbacks (5.6 yards/play), and he fumbled three times. Much more of a mixed bag than you get if you only look at gross passing yards and TDs.

56 He took 6 sacks for -50…

He took 6 sacks for -50 yards, and fumbled 3 times. So that's 278 yards on 49 plays (40 passes for 308, 6 sacks for -50, 3 carries for 20), which is 5.7 yards per play. Not good at moving the ball. 4 TDs is good, ~1.5 turnover equivalents (for the 3 fumbles) is average or worse.

Apparently that all adds up to basically replacement level play, and then opponent adjustments bring him into the negative.

59 Daniel Jones as a rookie is…

Daniel Jones as a rookie is looking a lot like Jameis Winston.  I guess I like that the coaches are throwing him out there and letting him take his lumps rather than trying to turtle and win low scoring games(which they won't with that defense).

There is something in the collective psyche of fans that focus on ints for qbs and then pretend fumbles and sacks are all the linemen's fault. 

 

6 sacks and 3 fumbles is brutal and represents a ton of lost value; though I don't know what an equivalent amount interceptions would be. Maybe 2?

65 Feedback

If I block scripts, this page renders in 157 MB. If I don't, 2.1 GB. That's not ok. Ultimately, you want me to think it's ok, cause I mean, anyone can block scripts.

Honestly, this comment goes over my head, but I'll make sure it gets sent to the proper authorities.

Certainly the Cincy adjustment bears a lot of blame, but it feels a little off to see Lamar as the #9 rushing QB of the week when he turned in the longest TD run by a QB in a number of years. Not counting a kneel down, he had 6 carries for 66 yards, the TD, another First Down, and the option to Griffith that went for 12 yards and a first down (NFL credited Lamar for 3 of those 12 yards and RG III got the other 9). Yet he ranks behind guys like Ryan (2 carries for 13 yards, though both went for first downs) and Driskel's 5 rushes for 37 yards.

Oops! That's an error in Jackson's numbers, I think caused by that lateral play. I'll look into that. He should be listed with 14 rushing DYAR, which would still only be fourth-best. If our numbers are right, he had three successful runs and three failed runs, incluing a 1-yard loss on second-and-goal from the 1 and a 2-yard gain on third-and-5. Plays like those are DYAR-killers.

Yeah, I had a similar comment last week. Almost feels like DVOA isn't quite equipped to assess a QB like him.

For the season, Jackson is blowing away the field -- Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott are the only others with even half his DYAR total. It makes a lot more sense than what happened last year, that's for sure.

Anyone find it odd that Daniel Jones could go 26/40, 308 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT and still have a below replacement day? I feel like DVOA is flawed if it can't recognize 4 TD to 0 INT as a positive day.

Thanks to everyone for already answering this -- it's the sacks, the fumbles, and a loss of 44 DYAR passing for playing the Jets. It's also that 10 of Jones' 26 completions still counted as failures. His success rate was only 36%. Only three starters were worse this week.