Week 11 Quick Reads
David Klingler set a Football Outsiders record nearly a decade before Football Outsiders was founded. We once thought Ryan Fitzpatrick had broken that record, but it turns out he didn't. Now that record may have been broken for real this time, but we'll have to wait six weeks until we can say that for sure.
Confused? Let's start at the beginning.
Klingler rewrote the NCAA record book at the University of Houston, then was taken with the sixth overall pick in the 1992 draft by the Cincinnati Bengals. By 1994 he was a disappointing third-year pro who was running out of chances to prove he could be the franchise's savior. Through three weeks results were mixed -- Klingler was top-ten in completion percentage but also top-four in sacks taken, and was in the middle of the pack in NFL passer rating and adjusted yards per pass. The Bengals were 0-3, but that was mostly due to breakdowns on defense and special teams; Cincinnati had given up at least 27 points every week, but the offense had scored 20 points in a loss to Cleveland, and 28 in a loss to the Patriots. Heading into a Week 4 matchup against the also-winless Oilers, there was still reason for optimism.
Three hours later, that optimism was dead. Even in the passing-friendly confines of the Houston Astrodome, Klingler had completed only ten passes, with twice that number of incompletions. The Oilers sacked Klingler seven times, forcing one fumble, and reeled in three interceptions. The quarterback was completely helpless in anything resembling scoring range -- on Houston's side of the 50, he went 1-of-7 with an interception and three sacks; that one completion was a 4-yard gain on third-and-goal from the 6, leading to a field goal. Meanwhile, Houston quarterback Cody Carlson was also having a terrible day, finishing 12-of-33 for 211 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions, and three sacks. Thanks largely to a Corey Sawyer punt return touchdown, the Bengals rallied from a 20-3 deficit and twice had a chance to tie the game in the fourth quarter. The first of those drives ended when Klingler threw incomplete on fourth-and-3, the next when he was sacked while attempting a Hail Mary on the last play of the game. The Oilers hung on for a 20-13 win.
That game was the beginning of the end for Klingler. Three weeks later, in a rematch against Cleveland, he was benched for Donald Hollas, put back into the game after Hollas suffered a shoulder injury, and then pulled for good after suffering his own knee injury. Third-string quarterback Jeff Blake finished the game for Cincinnati and went on to start every Bengals game until 1997, bouncing around the NFL for a decade with starting stints for the Saints, Ravens, and Cardinals. Klingler would never start again; his last game in the NFL was with the Raiders in 1997.
Time passed. Like, a lot of time. Klingler overcame his failures on the football field to succeed in the classroom, earning a Master's degree and a PhD in biblical studies with a specialty in the Old Testament. In 2003, Aaron Schatz began a newfangled Internet site called Football Outsiders Dot Com, applying the mathematic principles he had learned at Brown University to study football statistics. Eventually he was able to use those methods to study historical data, analyzing games as far back as the 1980s. And in all of that analysis, through all of those football games, he could never find a worse performance by a quarterback than Klingler's -302 total DYAR against Houston.
We actually thought the record had been broken in Week 3 of 2016, when Ryan Fitzpatrick became Ryan Fitz-Six-Picks against Kansas City, the last time any quarterback threw six interceptions in one game. Our writeup that week heralded Fitzpatrick's -324 DYAR as the worst we had ever measured, with the caveat that fluctuating opponent adjustments would change that total by the end of the year. And change they did -- the Chiefs finished seventh in pass defense DVOA that season, and with those adjustments Fitzpatrick's totals climbed to -300 total DYAR, putting Klingler back on the bottom of the pile. (The 1994 Oilers, by the way, finished second in pass defense DVOA -- Klingler set the negative-DYAR record despite getting a healthy boost in opponent adjustments.)
This brings us to Kyle Allen, who has his own interesting backstory:
- played at Texas A&M with Kyler Murray;
- transferred to Houston;
- got benched for Kyle Postma and/or D'Eriq King;
- left school early for the NFL anyway;
- went undrafted (duh);
- started for Carolina in Week 17 last year after Cam Newton AND Taylor Heinicke were injured and ended up finishing first in Quick Reads;
- won a very crowded battle for the top backup spot behind Newton in training camp;
- was named Carolina's temporary starter this season as of Week 3, when Newton was shelved with a foot injury, and played like a middle-of-the-pack NFL starter on a team with realistic playoff aspirations.
The Panthers put Newton on injured reserve on November 5, leaving Allen as the Panthers' starter for the rest of the year. And though he wasn't perfect against Green Bay the following Sunday, there is no shame in going into a division-leader's home stadium and coming up 2 yards short of forcing overtime. With Newton's health in serious doubt, some were questioning whether Allen might be ready to take over as Carolina's long-term starter at the game's most important position.
One week later, we can answer that question: No. No, he is not.
You don't need fancy numbers to tell you that Allen had a terrible day in Carolina's 29-3 loss to Atlanta. Sure, he completed 62% of his passes with a 6.5-yard average -- subpar but reasonable numbers in the NFL in 2019. But he did that without throwing a touchdown. While throwing four interceptions. And being sacked five times. Worst of all, he did this against Atlanta, a team that was next to last in pass defense DVOA coming into the week. Allen is only the second starter this season who failed to throw a touchdown. He is also the second player to be intercepted by the Falcons, and his completion and yardage rates were well below those that Atlanta usually surrenders.
Allen had 55 dropbacks on Sunday, which gave him plenty of opportunity to rack up negative DYAR. And that's exactly what he did, ending up with -315 DYAR passing, which would be a new single-game record. He added 2 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 7 yards, for a total of -312 total DYAR (accounting for rounding) which surpasses Klingler's benchmark, and is just the third -300-DYAR day we have found.
| Worst Quarterback Games, Total DYAR, 1989-2019 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Team | Year | Wk | CP/AT | Yds | TD | Int | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| Kyle Allen* | CAR | 2019 | 11 | 32/50 | 325 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -312 | -315 | 2 | ATL |
| David Klingler | CIN | 1994 | 4 | 10/30 | 115 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -302 | -302 | 0 | HOIL |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | 2016 | 3 | 20/44 | 188 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -300 | -291 | -9 | KC |
| Rex Grossman | CHI | 2006 | 6 | 14/37 | 144 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -284 | -284 | 0 | ARI |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2018 | 4 | 16/33 | 151 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -275 | -253 | -22 | GB |
| Brandon Weeden | CLE | 2012 | 1 | 12/35 | 118 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -274 | -284 | 10 | PHI |
| Alex Smith | SF | 2005 | 5 | 9/23 | 74 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -270 | -263 | -7 | IND |
| Tim Hasselbeck | WAS | 2003 | 15 | 6/26 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -270 | -268 | -2 | DAL |
| Troy Aikman | DAL | 1990 | 6 | 9/25 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -269 | -259 | -11 | PHX |
| Donald Hollas | OAK | 1998 | 14 | 12/31 | 152 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -266 | -273 | 7 | MIA |
| Brian Griese | DEN | 2001 | 17 | 16/32 | 151 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -265 | -272 | 7 | IND |
| Kordell Stewart | CHI | 2003 | 1 | 14/34 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -263 | -256 | -7 | SF |
| Craig Erickson | TB | 1993 | 6 | 13/29 | 122 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -259 | -257 | -3 | MIN |
| Ryan Leaf | SD | 1998 | 3 | 1/15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -259 | -256 | -3 | KC |
| Vinny Testaverde | TB | 1989 | 13 | 19/39 | 188 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -256 | -256 | 0 | GB |
| Bobby Hoying | PHI | 1998 | 11 | 16/34 | 118 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -255 | -248 | -7 | WAS |
| Luke Falk* | NYJ | 2019 | 5 | 15/26 | 120 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -256 | -256 | 0 | PHI |
| Kelly Stouffer | SEA | 1992 | 13 | 12/21 | 109 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -254 | -254 | 0 | DEN |
| Vinny Testaverde | TB | 1990 | 9 | 10/24 | 149 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -250 | -260 | 11 | CHI |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIN | 2014 | 6 | 23/37 | 188 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -250 | -257 | 7 | DET |
| DYAR totals accurate going into Monday Night Football in Week 11; they will change as opponent adjustments fluctuate throughout the year. | ||||||||||||
Now, all the caveats we wrote about Fitzpatrick in 2016 also apply here. Opponent adjustments will change, and Allen's DYAR totals will shift between now and Week 17. Most likely they will drop as his opponent adjustment for playing Atlanta shrinks. Two weeks ago, the Falcons moved Raheem Morris from wide receivers coach to defensive backs coach, and since then their performance on defense has radically improved. In eight games before the move, they allowed 8.5 yards per throw, with 19 touchdowns, two interceptions, and seven sacks. In two games since, those numbers have been 6.6, zero, four, and 11. If that improvement continues, We'll see a similar improvement in Allen's DYAR.
Mind, you, "improvement" in this case would mean "an all-time terrible game" and not "the absolute worst game we have ever measured." And who knows -- maybe Atlanta's two-game performance is a fluke, they'll stink up the joint the rest of the year, and Allen's DYAR will totally break our system. It's sure to be an exciting race, sitting back and watching which Houston Cougars alumnus really had the Worst Game of All Time.
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Dak Prescott | DAL |
29/46
|
444
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
193
|
188
|
5
|
DET
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part I: Prescott loses 44 DYAR due to playing the Lions. Prescott is peaking -- this is his second consecutive finish as the top quarterback of the week, and the fifth time in the past seven weeks he has made the top 10. On third downs, he went 7-of-11 for 133 yards with seven conversions (including two touchdowns) and one sack. He completed all 10 of his passes down the middle of the field, gaining 118 yards and two touchdowns in the process. | |||||||||||
|
2.
|
Kyler Murray | ARI |
24/33
|
150
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
179
|
156
|
23
|
SF
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part II: Murray gains ONE-HUNDRED AND FOUR DYAR for playing the mighty San Francisco defense. He did virtually all of his passing damage in the first half -- his 5-yard touchdown to Pharoh Cooper in the second quarter was actually the last time he completed a pass for a first down in the entire game. From that point forward, he went 10-of-14 for 49 yards with three sacks. He did pick up one first down on an 18-yard DPI, and also ran for a 22-yard touchdown. He finished with eight carries for 67 yards. | |||||||||||
|
3.
|
Lamar Jackson | BAL |
17/24
|
222
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
176
|
159
|
17
|
HOU
|
| First quarter: 1-of-6 for 12 yards. Obviously, Jackson was much, much better the rest of the game. He ran eight times for 87 yards and a touchdown, but there was a boom-or-bust nature to his running plays -- four of them each gained 12 yards or more, but the other four each gained 2 yards or less. | |||||||||||
|
4.
|
Matt Ryan | ATL |
21/31
|
311
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
155
|
154
|
1
|
CAR
|
| Ryan was at his best digging the Falcons out of bad field position in this game. Within the Falcons' 40-yard line, he went 7-of-8 for 121 yards. | |||||||||||
|
5.
|
Carson Wentz | PHI |
20/39
|
214
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
108
|
98
|
9
|
NE
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part III: Wentz gains ONE-HUNDRED TWENTY-NINE DYAR for playing the mighty New England defense. He is the first quarterback to throw for even 200 yards against the Patriots since Ben Roethlisberger did it in Week 1. He is just the fourth player to throw for a touchdown against New England, and he joins Lamar Jackson as the only players to throw a pass against the Patriots without throwing an interception. For all of that, though, he had a bad game on third and fourth downs: 4-of-12 passing for 34 yards with three conversions (including a touchdown) and two sacks. | |||||||||||
|
6.
|
Drew Brees | NO |
28/35
|
228
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
103
|
98
|
5
|
TB
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part IV: Brees loses 40 DYAR due to playing the Buccaneers. Red zone passing: 9-of-10 for 47 yards and three touchdowns. | |||||||||||
|
7.
|
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF |
34/45
|
424
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
101
|
98
|
3
|
ARI
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part V: Garoppolo loses 72 DYAR due to playing the Cardinals. Garoppolo (or, more accurately, his receivers) destroyed the Cardinals with yards after the catch. On throws to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, he went 26-of-32 for 285 yards and all four touchdowns, plus a 3-yard DPI. | |||||||||||
|
8.
|
Kirk Cousins | MIN |
29/35
|
319
|
3
|
0
|
5
|
95
|
96
|
-1
|
DEN
|
| Cousins, naturally, was at his best in the second half: 18-of-23 for 261 yards with a 5-yard DPI, two sacks, and all three touchdowns. | |||||||||||
|
9.
|
Baker Mayfield | CLE |
17/32
|
193
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
82
|
71
|
11
|
PIT
|
| Mayfield only threw four passes down the middle against Pittsburgh, but each one resulted in a big play: 42-yard completion to Odell Beckham, 25-yard completion to Jarvis Landry, 11-yard completion to Kareem Hunt on third-and-5, and 8-yard touchdown to Stephen Carlson on third-and-goal. | |||||||||||
|
10.
|
Josh Allen | BUF |
21/33
|
256
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
82
|
64
|
18
|
MIA
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part VI: Allen loses 73 DYAR for playing the Dolphins. He had a bad day on third down, going 5-of-10 for 50 yards but only two conversions (including a touchdown). His rushing numbers: six carries for 57 yards and a touchdown. | |||||||||||
|
11.
|
Jeff Driskel | DET |
15/26
|
209
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
79
|
59
|
20
|
DAL
|
| Driskel was good rallying the Lions from a deficit in the second half, but they were in that hole in part because he had played so poorly in the first half: 5-of-10 for 51 yards with only two first downs, plus two sacks. Driskel's rushing numbers: seven carries for 52 yards and a touchdown. | |||||||||||
|
12.
|
Sam Darnold | NYJ |
19/30
|
293
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
68
|
68
|
0
|
WAS
|
| Most of Darnold's big plays in this game came on first down, when he went 6-of-9 for 136 yards with two touchdowns and one sack. | |||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
13.
|
Nick Foles | JAX |
33/47
|
296
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
50
|
50
|
0
|
IND
|
| In his first game back in the lineup, Foles threw a dozen failed completions, second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. He's in peak form. | |||||||||||
|
14.
|
Jared Goff | LAR |
11/18
|
173
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
30
|
33
|
-3
|
CHI
|
| Goff only threw for six first downs in this game, and three of them came on his last three passes, when the Rams were desperately clinging to a one-score lead in the fourth quarter: an 18-yard gain on second-and-8, a 25-yard gain on third-and-7, and a 20-yard gain on second-and-13. None of those first downs came on first down, when he went 1-of-5 for 6 yards. | |||||||||||
|
15.
|
Patrick Mahomes | KC |
19/32
|
182
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
16
|
0
|
16
|
LAC
|
|
16.
|
Jacoby Brissett | IND |
15/24
|
148
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
10
|
-1
|
11
|
JAX
|
| Brissett was nearly perfect in the second half. His first six passes after halftime were all completed for 81 yards and a touchdown. His seventh was a DPI for 13 more yards. His eighth (and last) was intercepted, but by that point the Colts were up 31-7 with less than five minutes to go. | |||||||||||
|
17.
|
Derek Carr | OAK |
25/29
|
292
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
6
|
-3
|
9
|
CIN
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part VII: Carr loses 65 DYAR due to playing the Bengals. He did not get off to a good start in this one. In the first quarter, he completed all four of his passes, but they gained a total of just 16 yards, and he was also sacked twice. But he was perfect on passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield, completing all six of them for 141 yards. | |||||||||||
|
18.
|
Brandon Allen | DEN |
17/39
|
240
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
-3
|
-19
|
16
|
MIN
|
| Red zone passing: 3-of-12 for 10 yards with one touchdown and one interception. In related news, the Broncos lost by four points. | |||||||||||
|
19.
|
Tom Brady | NE |
26/47
|
216
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
-4
|
-4
|
0
|
PHI
|
| Red zone passing: 2-of-8 for 2 yards and no first downs, let alone touchdowns. | |||||||||||
|
20.
|
Philip Rivers | LAC |
28/50
|
353
|
1
|
4
|
2
|
-12
|
-12
|
0
|
KC
|
|
21.
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA |
32/45
|
323
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
-44
|
-37
|
-8
|
BUF
|
| Red zone passing: 3-of-4 for 18 yards, but none of those completions picked up a first down, let alone a touchdown. And in the front zone (the area between Buffalo's 20- and 40-yard lines), Fitzpatrick was hardly any better: 4-of-5 for 26 yards with only one first down, plus one sack. | |||||||||||
|
22.
|
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI |
24/43
|
190
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
-74
|
-75
|
0
|
LAR
|
| Trubisky did not complete a deep pass in this game, going 0-for-8 with an interception. His 14-yard touchdown to Tarik Cohen in the third quarter was his last first down in the game; after that, he went 5-of-10 for 23 yards. | |||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
CP/AT
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Sacks
|
Total
DYAR |
Pass
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
23.
|
Jameis Winston | TB |
30/51
|
313
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
-98
|
-110
|
12
|
NO
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part VIII: Winston gains 48 DYAR for playing the Saints. On third and fourth downs, Winston went 5-of-12 for 40 yards with four conversions (including a Tampa Bay touchdown), three interceptions (including a New Orleans touchdown), and one sack. | |||||||||||
|
24.
|
Deshaun Watson | HOU |
18/29
|
169
|
0
|
1
|
6
|
-138
|
-129
|
-9
|
BAL
|
| Watson did not throw a pass in the red zone. In Ravens territory, he went 4-of-9 for 39 yards with two sacks, one fumble, and only one first down. He was lousy in short yardage, when things are theoretically easier for the quarterback. With 4 yards or less to go for a first down, he went 3-of-9 for 31 yards with two first downs and one interception. | |||||||||||
|
25.
|
Mason Rudolph | PIT |
23/44
|
221
|
1
|
4
|
4
|
-160
|
-171
|
11
|
CLE
|
| Rudolph had -163 DYAR on first down, more than twice as bad as the next-worst quarterback. On first down, he went 11-of-21 for 104 yards with a 38-yard DPI, three interceptions, two sacks, and one fumble. | |||||||||||
|
26.
|
Dwayne Haskins | WAS |
19/35
|
214
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
-172
|
-173
|
1
|
NYJ
|
| Haskins did not pick up a first down until Washington was down 20-3 in the second quarter. Up to that point, he had gone 7-of-11 for 28 yards with three sacks and a fumbled snap. Most of his positive production came in garbage time. After the Jets took a 34-3 lead in the fourth quarter, Haskins went 7-of-14 for 119 yards and both of his touchdowns. | |||||||||||
|
27.
|
Ryan Finley | CIN |
13/31
|
115
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
-203
|
-222
|
19
|
OAK
|
| Finley's rushing numbers: three carries for 47 yards. He only threw for six first downs all day, and only two of those came in Oakland territory, where he went 7-of-17 for 30 yards with two sacks. | |||||||||||
|
28.
|
Kyle Allen | CAR |
32/50
|
325
|
0
|
4
|
5
|
-312
|
-315
|
2
|
ATL
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part IX: Allen loses 70 DYAR due to playing the Falcons. Allen threw eight passes inside the Atlanta 25-yard line, and completed more of them to the Falcons (three) than to the Panthers (one, a 4-yard gain on third-and-4 from the 20). Allen also struggled in short yardage: with 5 yards or less to go for a first down, he went 6-of-14 for 70 yards with three interceptions, three sacks, and an intentional grounding. Jimmy Garropolo, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield are the only other quarterbacks to throw so many interceptions with so few yards to go this season. | |||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Christian McCaffrey | CAR |
14
|
70
|
0
|
11/14
|
121
|
0
|
55
|
23
|
32
|
ATL
|
| Yes, Kyle Allen had the worst quarterback game on record while playing alongside the best running back of the week. Only two of McCaffrey's runs picked up first downs, but then only one resulted in a stuff, while 11 picked up 3 yards or more, the longest an 18-yarder. Five of his catches produced first downs, including 20- and 23-yard gains. | ||||||||||||
|
2.
|
Alvin Kamara | NO |
13
|
75
|
0
|
10/10
|
47
|
0
|
49
|
46
|
3
|
TB
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part X: Kamara gains 37 DYAR for playing the Buccaneers. His 75 rushing yards and 5.8-yard average are second-best for any running back against Tampa Bay this year behind Chris Carson. Only one of his carries this weekend gained a first down, but all of them gained at least 1 yard, and two of them gained 12 yards or more. Four of his catches picked up first downs, the longest a 17-yarder. He would have ranked even higher but he fumbled on one of his receptions. | ||||||||||||
|
3.
|
Gus Edwards | BAL |
8
|
112
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
47
|
47
|
0
|
HOU
|
| All of Edwards' runs gained at least 3 yards and four gained first downs, including a 63-yard touchdown and a 25-yard gain. | ||||||||||||
|
4.
|
Tarik Cohen | CHI |
9
|
39
|
0
|
5/6
|
35
|
1
|
36
|
19
|
17
|
LAR
|
| Cohen was stuffed twice, but he ran for four first downs, including a pair of 12-yard gains. Two of his catches produced first downs: a 17-yard gain on third-and-3 and a 14-yard touchdown on third-and-10. | ||||||||||||
|
5.
|
Marlon Mack | IND |
14
|
109
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
35
|
35
|
0
|
JAX
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part XI: Mack loses 16 DYAR due to playing the Jaguars; without them, he would have been the top running back of the week. (His teammate Jonathan Williams also lost 16 DYAR, and without them would have been in second place.) Mack was stuffed just one time, while five of his carries gained at least 13 yards and a first down. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Gus Edwards | BAL |
8
|
112
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
47
|
47
|
0
|
HOU
|
|
2.
|
Alvin Kamara | NO |
13
|
75
|
0
|
10/10
|
47
|
0
|
49
|
46
|
3
|
TB
|
|
3.
|
Marlon Mack | IND |
14
|
109
|
1
|
0/0
|
0
|
0
|
35
|
35
|
0
|
JAX
|
|
4.
|
Phillip Lindsay | DEN |
16
|
67
|
0
|
2/2
|
8
|
0
|
22
|
24
|
-2
|
MIN
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part XII: Lindsay gains 12 DYAR due to playing the Vikings. He was stuffed three times while running for just one first down with a long gain of only 11 yards, but had a dozen runs that gained 3 yards or more. | ||||||||||||
|
5.
|
Christian McCaffrey | CAR |
14
|
70
|
0
|
11/14
|
121
|
0
|
55
|
23
|
32
|
ATL
|
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Brian Hill | ATL |
15
|
30
|
0
|
1/3
|
8
|
0
|
-60
|
-51
|
-9
|
CAR
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part XIII: Hill loses 31 DYAR for playing the Carolina defense. He is the 17th running back to get at least five carries in a game against Tampa Bay this year; among that group, his average gain of 2.0 is worst by more than a full yard. He had just one run of more than 4 yards (an 11-yard gain on second-and-7, his only first down of the day) while being stuffed five times. Each of his three targets came on second down with 10 or 11 yards to go. | ||||||||||||
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Runs
|
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
Rec
|
Rec
Yds |
Rec
TD |
Total
DYAR |
Rush
DYAR |
Rec
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
1.
|
Brian Hill | ATL |
15
|
30
|
0
|
1/3
|
8
|
0
|
-60
|
-51
|
-9
|
CAR
|
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | ||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Rec
|
Att
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Total
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
|
1.
|
Calvin Ridley | ATL |
8
|
8
|
143
|
17.9
|
1
|
84
|
CAR
|
|
| Six of Ridley's catches picked up first downs, including gains of 26, 34, and 36 yards. | ||||||||||
|
2.
|
Stefon Diggs | MIN |
5
|
5
|
121
|
24.2
|
1
|
66
|
DEN
|
|
| Diggs did not get a single target in the first half, which partly explains why the Vikings were down 20-0 when the third quarter started. Four of his catches produced first downs, including a 44-yard gain, a 54-yard touchdown, and three third-down conversions. | ||||||||||
|
3.
|
Michael Gallup | DAL |
9
|
13
|
148
|
16.4
|
0
|
51
|
DET
|
|
| Seven of Gallup's catches produced first downs and three gained 20 yards or more, the longest a 41-yarder. | ||||||||||
|
4.
|
Ryan Griffin | NYJ |
5
|
5
|
109
|
21.8
|
1
|
51
|
WAS
|
|
| No, off-hand, I do not know the last time a Jets player made the top receivers list. Wayne Chrebet, maybe? All five of Griffin's catches produced first downs, including gains of 26 and 45 yards, plus a 16-yard touchdown. | ||||||||||
|
5.
|
DeVante Parker | MIA |
7
|
10
|
135
|
19.3
|
0
|
46
|
BUF
|
|
| Five of Parker's catches produced first downs, including gains of 45 and 50 yards. | ||||||||||
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | ||||||||||
|
Rk
|
Player
|
Team
|
Rec
|
Att
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Total
DYAR |
Opp
|
|
|
1.
|
Curtis Samuel | CAR |
4
|
7
|
25
|
6.2
|
0
|
-39
|
ATL
|
|
| Behold the power of opponent adjustments, Part XIV: Samuel loses 10 DYAR due to playing the Falcons, while Denver's Noah Fant gains 17 DYAR for playing the Vikings. Otherwise, Fant would have been the worst receiver of the week by a country mile for his 4-11-60-0 receiving statline, along with his two carries for -7 total yards. As for Samuel, two of his catches went for first downs, but the other two were a 1-yard loss on first-and-10 and a 2-yard gain on third-and-4. | ||||||||||
Comments
78 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2019, 10:21am
#1 by mehllageman56 // Nov 19, 2019 - 3:17am
"No, off-hand, I do not know the last time a Jets player made the top receivers list. Wayne Chrebet, maybe?" Probably 2015, when Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker almost dragged Ryan Six-picks into the playoffs.
#2 by Bobman // Nov 19, 2019 - 4:29am
Although Chrebet was a good guess, as he is just about the Jetsiest Jet I can think of. (If Julian Edelman went to some D-III school in Boston and signed as an UDFA with the Pats, he'd be on par as the Patsiest Patriot.)
As a Colts fan and former NYer, I have a healthy dislike of both those teams, but those guys were/are just freakin' lethal in a, "What? Are you kidding me? You're sinking my team again?!" kind of way.
#11 by BJR // Nov 19, 2019 - 9:49am
Does anybody have a rooting interest in the Chargers? I suppose if you did you really ought to be numb to these head scratching losses by now.
Rivers has looked bad the past couple weeks. I mentioned last week that his performance had a whiff of death-throw Peyton Manning about it (appearing not to be processing the field quickly enough, resulting in uncharacteristic sacks and inexplicable throws straight to defenders). Clearly he’s an arch-competitor so I’m hesitant to write him off, but it would be a shame to see his career fizzle out in such a manner.
Another takeaway from the game: I love Andy Reid, he’s a sure fire HOFer in my eyes. But my goodness it can be tough watching him manage late game situations, going ultra-conservative with the game on the line.
#23 by Joe Pancake // Nov 19, 2019 - 10:57am
"... going ultra-conservative with the game on the line"
Did Andy Reid do this?
The Chiefs had four drives in the fourth quarter, all with a seven point lead. On the first two, he called seven total passes and four total runs. On the third one (a three-and-out), he called passes on second and third down, both went incomplete. On the final one, he called passes on second and third down again, but Mahomes scrambled on both of them and got a first down. Then he ran twice to get a very manageable 3rd-and-4 (and got the Chargers to waste a timeout and burn the clock to nearly the 2:00 warning), and then he called a pass play to have Mahomes try to seal the game, but he got sacked.
That's not ultra-conservative; that's not even really normal conservative. It seems like smart time management to me. He was able to burn a bunch of clock and give Mahomes a very good chance to try to ice it, but it just didn't happen. What should he have done differently?
#37 by BJR // Nov 19, 2019 - 12:52pm
I’d like to have seen him not run on first down three consecutive times, with Patrick Mahomes back there. Perhaps ‘ultra-conservative’ is extreme, as many coaches would undoubtedly have done the same. But the Chiefs are overall about the most pass heavy first-down team in the league (why wouldn’t you be?), so to abandon that tendency with the game on the line left me a little frustrated.
#57 by Joe Pancake // Nov 19, 2019 - 3:47pm
I'm not sure what this is referring to. There was no 3rd-and-6 before the two-minute warning (3rd-and-4?), and the Chiefs didn't call a timeout the entire fourth quarter. According to the game log, after the Chargers called their final timeout with 3:03 left, the Chiefs ran a play, running off 42 seconds, and then ran another play, taking it down to 2:00.
We all know Andy Reid has struggled with the clock before, but this time he played it perfectly, in my opinion. He forced the Chargers to use all their timeouts, and ran the clock down to under two minutes, while still giving Mahomes a very good opportunity to seal the victory outright (he just couldn't convert). I don't see what he could have done better.
#27 by dank067 // Nov 19, 2019 - 11:56am
Oh my god, the game logs from his Falcons days are like if the "Bad Rex" version of Grossman in 2006 played every week.
11/9/75 @ Minnesota: 5/26, 43 yards, 5 interceptions and sacked 3 times for -26 yards. Vikings 38, Falcons 0.
#45 by Joe Pancake // Nov 19, 2019 - 1:35pm
Bobby Douglass could run though (968 yards and 8 TDs in 1972), which added to his value. The man who replaced him Chicago, Gary Huff, couldn't run and was probably an even worse passer. He's the worst QB I can find since the merger, who was a legitimate starter for couple years.
The worst in my life as a fan (1984ish to present day) was probably Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith if you count him (only a starter for one season and change). It's funny how Leaf is still remembered today, but Smith's not really, even though they had the same basic career and both were top-three picks. I guess it's the Peyton Manning narrative and Leaf's media outbursts that make him more memorable.
#15 by BJR // Nov 19, 2019 - 10:16am
The Bengals should be investigated by the league for tanking. Benching Andy Dalton, without a viable backup solution, is a move that can only be explained by actively trying to lose.
The Dolphins were accused of tanking, but they received attractive trade offers for the players they offloaded. And they quickly settled on Fitzpatrick as the QB who was clearly the most likely to win them games. If you watch their games, they are playing and coaching their hearts out. It’s heartwarming stuff compared to what is going on in Cincinnati (and, for that matter, Washington.)
#21 by dryheat // Nov 19, 2019 - 10:53am
The Bengals problem isn't a lack of talent, nor is it a concerted effort to lose games. It's simply what happens when you hire a coach whose compelling credential was Played in a Nirvana cover band with Sean McVay or whatever it was.
#36 by BJR // Nov 19, 2019 - 12:41pm
I’m being partly tongue-in-cheek, obviously nobody is seriously going to investigate them for ‘tanking’.
Dalton was easily in the top half of DYAR as late as 2016. His last couple of years haven’t been great, but the entire team has been declining. They are bottoming out now, which is ok. But benching a long time respectable QB so a late round rookie can put up -200 DYAR performances feels slightly odious to me.
#38 by RickD // Nov 19, 2019 - 1:08pm
The Bengals need to figure out if Finley is good enough, and it would be preferable to do so before the draft. If he is, they can draft Chase Young. Even if Dalton looks better right now, he's going to be replaced. It's just a question of "by whom".
#39 by theslothook // Nov 19, 2019 - 1:10pm
I never got why people hate on Andy Dalton so much. People seem to be rewriting his career as if he's been a career backup this whole time but due to organizational incompetence, he persisted. In a league where making the playoffs year to year is a major challenge(hello Bears), The bengals six straight seasons is impressive. Yes they each ended the same way, but there is an achievement there and Dalton is a part of it.
This season was always going to be a bad season because the core of that bengals team is either old, gone, or injured. The front office foresaw the coming age problem and tried to solve it via the draft. Those picks missed. Couple that with the fact that they hired the wrong coach(it appears) and you get what should have been a garden variety bad season become a nightmarish one.
#67 by mehllageman56 // Nov 19, 2019 - 9:58pm
Douglas may or may not be good, but Gase... oh my god. And the defense (11th) and special teams (2nd or 3rd) are worthy of a playoff contender... when you have a good offense run by a genius, not the worst offense in the league run by a 'genius'. That's why I'm rooting for them to lose every game.
#74 by Noahrk // Nov 20, 2019 - 5:47pm
I can get behind that :D. Seriously, I feel bad for Gase. He looked absolutely crushed on the sidelines in the Miami game.But his way (or the highway) is just too exacting and seemingly arbitrary to work. Head-coaching is simply not his thing.
#16 by andrew // Nov 19, 2019 - 10:18am
We had a few comments earlier on Jetsiest Jet and Patsiets Pat.... We could do a whole discussion on these, not best player, not mount rushmore, but just someone that embodied various aspects of the team, culture, fan base, area, etc (see earlier comments). For my team Vikings, I would nominate Gary Larsen, the least storied of the Purple People Eaters, for various reasons: Born in Fargo, ND, went to school in Concordia, in Moorehead MN, scandihoovian last name and looked like a Viking.
. This should be done in good sense, I could see Bengaliest Bengal going in a wrong direction that I don't want this discussion to go into...
#24 by sbond101 // Nov 19, 2019 - 11:20am
I've thought a lot about the candidates for Billsiest Bill - and I think the title really belongs to Fred Jackson. Classic underdog; Played division III ball in college and found his way up through the indoor football league & NFL Europe as a UFA climbing the depth chart during his first year. Spent his career as an over-exposed good but not great running back known for running hard and fumbling to much - much like the 2000's/2010's Bills mistake prone and good but not good enough. In 2015, after being cut by the Bills as an overpaid veteran on a losing team he goes to the Seahawks looking for a sniff of a title and is the intended target on a pick-6 in the close conference championship loss to Carolina.
Qualifications - underdog/undrafted, stayed with the Bills for 8 years of total futility, consistent low-grade fumble-itis, cut as an overpaid veteran RB, involved in a key turnover in a memorable playoff loss.
#62 by Mike B. In Va // Nov 19, 2019 - 5:50pm
I wear a Jackson jersey with pride. He's as Billsy as one could be.
Plus, this:
https://imgur.com/gallery/D1Y1lFe
Sadly, they totally blew drafting the guy who would have been the most Billsy ever, Gronk.
#41 by justanothersteve // Nov 19, 2019 - 1:15pm
I would think the Vikingest Viking is one currently on the team, WR Adam Thielen. Born in Minnesota. Huge Vikings and Cris Carter fan growing up. Graduated from a small local state university. Made the team as an UFA and is now a Pro Bowl receiver. Gives back to the community through a foundation he started. His family looks like a generic family on a Hallmark Xmas card. He'll be the Vikingest Viking unless he kills someone or does something else equally godawful.
The current Packerest Packer is probably RT Mark Tauscher for similar reasons. Grew up in Wisconsin as a Packers fan. Played for UW. Started as a rookie despite being drafted in the seventh round and held the position for ten years. Entire career in Green Bay. Currently is an on-air sports personality on ESPN Milwaukee. Great community leader who donates a lot of time and money to charity.
#49 by Mountain Time … // Nov 19, 2019 - 2:33pm
I've only been a Bronco fan for a decade, but I'll go ahead and nominate Philip Lindsay.
Born and went to high school in Denver: ✅
Went to college at University of Colorado: ✅
Undrafted RB rushing for 1,000+ yards: ✅
#25 by johonny // Nov 19, 2019 - 11:20am
He can at least handle the terrible line play better than Rosen. Rosen simply doesn't have the experience to play under constant terrible line play. The assumption right now would be, Miami drafts a lot of oline next draft. Perhaps, under the idea Rosen is the QB of the immediate future. Perhaps, under the idea they'll draft that franchise QB in 2021. Obviosuly Flores is coaching to find out who is on this team next season and not coaching for draft position. Which fans admire even with the terrible product its produced.
#75 by Noahrk // Nov 20, 2019 - 6:19pm
I don't know if I agree. The line play improved the second Fitz got into the game with Washington (as WAS started playing softer defense) and had remained pretty good until last Sunday. Meanwhile, Rosen's best quality in my mind is his pocket awareness (along with his deep ball). As he also has excellent mobility, I probably prefer him in those situations to Fitz. Where Fitz smokes him is pre and post snap reads.
Fact is, I've been very surprised by how un-Fitz-like Fitz has been. We've seen no gunslinging from him at all.He's been very safe with the ball sticking to what the defense gives him. If he were younger I'd love him as the QB of the future.
#28 by theslothook // Nov 19, 2019 - 12:11pm
Atlanta's defensive turnaround(if its real) is beyond astonishing. I can't remember a defense being so thoroughly incompetent suddenly being good mid season. I can't tell if we should credit Dan Quinn for making changes or blast Quinn for being so myopic from the start. I lean to the latter
#29 by theslothook // Nov 19, 2019 - 12:12pm
I haven't watched Dak Prescott that much this season, but there's definitely been improvement across the board in his numbers. At one point, I thought he was an above average player. Now he is looking like an MVP candidate.
Is he better or is the talent around him better or this a dream season and the nightmare is coming next year(Jared Goff still has woken up).
#32 by RickD // Nov 19, 2019 - 12:26pm
Seems to me the Cowboys have a better group of receivers than they've had in a very long time. I'm probably too reluctant to give Dak credit - his statistics certainly put him in the top tier.
Let's see how he does on Sunday vs. the Patriots. If he wants MVP consideration, he'll have to have results like Lamar Jackson did (not with exactly the same stat line, but if Dak struggles where Lamar shone, he'd probably be clearly behind Jackson and Wilson).
#44 by theslothook // Nov 19, 2019 - 1:21pm
If you are going to base MVP on biggest drop off, then its not CMC. It's not even close to CMC. Replacement running backs, even with as big a disparity as there would be in this case, approximate more of the value than a replacement value qb does for an all pro.
Take Jackson off the Ravens and that scheme vanishes the moment RG3 inevitably gets hurt. Their defense is still good enough to avoid the darkest places, but their offense probably becomes a bottom 5 unit.
As an aside, the MVP is always a thorny balance between value and best season and best player on the best team. Sometimes those things completely align and you get Mahomes a year ago. This year its muddled. I think from a pure dropoff point of view, I think Wilson is the MVP. Best season is probably Lamar. Who wins...? Assuming they continue to play as they are, I think Wilson will edge out Lamar if the Seahawks win the division. if not, I think Lamar gets it. Since I think SF will win the division, I see Lamar as the mvp.
#70 by JimZipCode // Nov 20, 2019 - 4:15am
Between Wilson & Lamar, I think it depends on which team gets a bye. If Seattle gets a bye and the Ravens don't, Russ wins MVP. If the Ravens get a bye and the Seahawks don't, Lamar wins MVP.
If they both finish the same, bye-wise, then I dunno. Other factors will determine.
#72 by Eddo // Nov 20, 2019 - 7:10am
Agree 100% on McCaffrey's non-worthiness as an MVP.
It's not even just about drop-off; McCaffrey was great this week, #1 in RB DYAR... and his offense scored 3 points. Yes, his QB played horribly, but that's kind of my point - guys like Wilson, Jackson, Mahomes, Watson - if their RBs have awful games, they still lead their teams to 20+ points.
Really, this is an argument against RBs winning MVP, period, I guess.
#43 by theslothook // Nov 19, 2019 - 1:17pm
Kind of sad to watch Rivers last night. Even after terrible losses to his teams where he jawed with fans, I still have a reverence for him as a qb. Not everyone becomes Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. Some eventually end up in a tier slightly below, like Big Ben.
I don't think Rivers will be remembered much. I don't think he ever had an iconic postseason moment and his regular seasons were overshadowed by better quarterbacks. That Ironically resembles his franchise's previous great qb. That is a shame. I won't say his organization has perpetually drafted poorly, but they've been consistently bad on special teams and the offensive line going back to the forming of cosmos. Ownership is notoriously frugal and the fans rarely show up so many of his home games have been like away games. Talk about sapping morale. Couple that with a head case GM during his early years and you get an organization that's not thaat far off from being the Bengals or the Browns.
I personally think he's a hall of famer. I don't think he will get in. Gun to my head, if I could redraft 2004, I'd probably take him ahead of Big Ben though its close.
#48 by Chip // Nov 19, 2019 - 2:32pm
He has both a high level of performance and a long plateau. 13 straight years of starting 16 games per season.
A quick PFR comparison using Approximate Value* shows that Rivers is closer to Brady than Ben / Eli. Closer on a per season basis as well as more consistent year to year (no single digit AVs)
- Rivers: 191 career AV or 14.7 per season (13 seasons)
- Tom Terrific: 269 career AV or 14.9 per season (18 seasons)
- Big Ben: 185 career AV or 12.3 per season (15 seasons)
- Eli Manning: 162 career AV or 10.6 per season (15 seasons)
* I realize that AV isn't the end all be all, but certainly is a great place to start. AV is through the 2018 seasons.
#51 by JIPanick // Nov 19, 2019 - 2:45pm
I think he'll get in. He's been too good for too long not to.
If I was redrafting 2004 with what I know now, and I needed a QB, my draft board would look like:
1. Rivers
2. Trade it to Dallas for 2nd year 3rd stringer Tony Romo
3. Ben
4. Eli
#52 by theslothook // Nov 19, 2019 - 2:46pm
Id rather have Ben than Romo. If not for longevity issues, I might rather have had Schaub than Eli but otherwise agree.
Its also interesting to compare McNabb and Rivers - who will get in and who won't and who is more deserving?
#56 by Independent George // Nov 19, 2019 - 3:18pm
I think Rivers is HoF worthy, but I doubt he's going in unless Eli gets in first because of RINGZ. I love Eli, but I don't think he belongs (though he might make it because football writers can be stupid that way).
The funny thing is that the Chargers have sadly validated Archie's advice on draft day. At the time, it seemed insane; playing for Marty with Gates and LT seemed like a perfect situation for a young QB, but I guess Spanos gotta Spanos.
#50 by theslothook // Nov 19, 2019 - 2:37pm
you are conveniently leaving out injury history and salary cap. Btw, Kyle Allen was playing wellish at the time and since he is a rookie, there was an expectation the best might be yet to come. Now that he looks to be bad, that equation tilts back into Cam's favor.
#68 by Vincent Verhei // Nov 20, 2019 - 3:43am
Robby Anderson made it in 2018 week 5.
Thanks for looking that up!
I'm assuming John Brown got knocked out of the receivers list thanks to the Miracle of Opponent Adjustments, Part XXVI?
He did lose 14 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, which was most of any receiver in the top 20, but he would not have made the top five even without that. He had five incomplete targets, three of them with 6 or 7 yards to go, and is dinged for those plays.
Is it just a fact of DYAR that QBs on worse teams have a higher DYAR ceiling because they have to throw more and don't get pulled in the 4th quarter?
DYAR is a counting stat, which means the more passes you throw, the more extreme your DYAR can be, either very high or very low.