Quick Reads
The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 6 Quick Reads

Jameis Winston
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Vincent Verhei

Sometimes just picking a topic for this column is the hardest part of my job. And sometimes people do the hardest part of my job for me.

Yes, it's very rare that we see this many bad plays from one quarterback in one game. The tragedies for Winston jump out at you in the play-by-play data. He was sacked on back-to-back plays in the first quarter, and then topped that with consecutive sack-fumbles in the second quarter. In between he was sacked on second-and-9 before throwing an interception on third-and-12. By the time Winston's final pass of the game was reeled in by Carolina cornerback James Bradberry, he had thrown more interceptions in four quarters than eight different quarterbacks have thrown in six starts this year. The seven sacks are only slightly less egregious -- that's as many sacks as Dak Prescott has taken in his half-dozen starts in 2019.

How rare is it to see a dozen combined sacks and interceptions (SKINTs?) in one game? The last player to do it was Cam Newton in 2014, in a game against Philadelphia that we talked about last week. Terrelle Pryor did it against Kansas City the year before. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1998, the Donald Hollas game referenced in the Pro Football Reference Tweet that started this discussion. The single-game record for SKINTs since sacks became an official statistic in 1982 belongs to Warren Moon, who threw four interceptions and suffered a dozen sacks against the Cowboys in 1985. (Pro Football Reference actually has sack data for earlier seasons, but to keep things simple I am restricting this to official sack numbers.)

(UPDATE: Due to an error in my research, I had overlooked some low-interception, mega-high-sack games in that timespan. You can see lists of those games here, here, and here.)

We could also publish the single-season and career leaders in SKINTs, but those lists are not very interesting. In larger sample sizes, sacks are much more frequent than interceptions, so the SKINT leaderboards are just slightly shuffled versions of the sack leaderboards. We can account for this by measuring the geometric mean of the two statistics. You can read more about geometric means here but in a nutshell, they are useful for analyzing groups of numbers on different scales, such as sacks and interceptions. The math is simple to use: simply multiply the two numbers together, then find the square root of the product. Using Winston's game as an example, we would multiply his five interceptions by his seven sacks to get a product of 35. The square root of 35 is 5.92, so that's the geometric mean of Winston's sacks and interceptions. As it turns out, that's a very high number for a single game -- seventh-highest on record, and the highest since the Hollas game in 1998. Hollas and Moon share the geometric mean record at 6.93 for the two games we have already discussed.

Highest Single-Game Geometric Mean Between
Sacks and Interceptions, 1982-2019
Year Player Team Week Opp INT Sk GM
1985 Warren Moon HOU 4 DAL 4 12 6.93
1998 Donald Hollas OAK 14 MIA 6 8 6.93
1983 Ron Jaworski PHI 16 STL 4 11 6.63
1984 Paul McDonald CLE 5 KC 4 11 6.63
1983 Eric Hipple DET 4 MIN 5 8 6.32
1989 Tom Tupa PHX 6 PHI 6 6 6.00
2019 Jameis Winston TB 6 CAR 5 7 5.92
1991 Troy Aikman DAL 3 PHI 3 11 5.74
1986 Randall Cunningham PHI 11 DET 3 10 5.48
2013 EJ Manuel BUF 14 TB 4 7 5.29
2012 Jay Cutler CHI 2 GB 4 7 5.29
2002 Patrick Ramsey WAS 6 NO 4 7 5.29
1993 Bobby Hebert ATL 16 WAS 4 7 5.29
1993 Rodney Peete DET 14 MIN 4 7 5.29
1992 Hugh Millen NE 2 LARM 4 7 5.29
1987 Tony Adams MIN 6 TB 4 7 5.29
1982 Archie Manning HOU 15 PHI 4 7 5.29
2013 Terrelle Pryor OAK 6 KC 3 9 5.20
2014 Cam Newton CAR 10 PHI 3 9 5.20
2007 Kurt Warner ARI 14 SEA 5 5 5.00
1987 Jeff Rutledge NYG 11 NO 5 5 5.00

The good news for Winston is that this game is out of his system and he's not likely to do it again -- nobody has ever had a game like this twice in their career. Three Hall of Famers (Moon, Troy Aikman, Kurt Warner) have done it, as have three first-overall draft picks (Aikman, Newton, and Winston). Other players here enjoyed long, notable careers -- including Ron Jaworski, Randall Cunningham, and Archie Manning -- but most of the rest are either draft busts or anonymous footnotes.

Going into Monday Night Football, Winston had thrown 10 interceptions and taken 25 sacks this season, for a league-high geometric mean of 15.8. He's followed by Baker Mayfield (11 interceptions, 16 sacks, 13.3 geometric mean), Andy Dalton (5, 22, 10.5), Matt Ryan (7, 14, 9.9), and Josh Allen (7, 13, 9.5, in only five games).

The single-season leaderboard in this category reads like the inaugural class in the Hall of Very Good Quarterbacks (though some on the FO staff argue it's more like the Hall of Kinda Good Quarterbacks):

Highest Single-Season Geometric Mean Between
Sacks and Interceptions, 1982-2019
Year Player Team INT Sk GM
2006 Jon Kitna DET 22 63 37.2
1984 Paul McDonald CLE1 23 53 34.9
1983 Lynn Dickey GB 29 40 34.1
1999 Drew Bledsoe NE 21 55 34.0
1988 Vinny Testaverde TB 35 33 34.0
2002 David Carr HOU 15 76 33.8
2000 Steve Beuerlein CAR 18 62 33.4
1995 Dave Krieg ARI 21 53 33.4
2001 Aaron Brooks NO 22 50 33.2
1983 Richard Todd NYJ 26 42 33.0
2002 Daunte Culpepper MIN 23 47 32.9
2001 Tim Couch CLE 21 51 32.7
1983 Cliff Stoudt PIT 21 51 32.7
1986 Warren Moon HOIL 26 41 32.6
2006 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 23 46 32.5
2013 Joe Flacco BAL 22 48 32.5
2013 Eli Manning NYG 27 39 32.4
1985 Phil Simms NYG 20 52 32.2
1985 Dave Krieg SEA 20 52 32.2
2007 Jon Kitna DET 20 51 31.9

Warren Moon is in the Hall of Fame and Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning will at least receive votes for enshrinement. The other names here will largely be recognized by most knowledgeable football fans, and at the same time will never get into Canton without a ticket.

In 2006, Detroit's Jon Kitna led the NFL with 63 sacks taken while also throwing 22 interceptions, second-most behind the 23 of Ben Roethlisberger. That's a geometric mean of 37.2, the most since 1982 by quite a bit. (Second-place Paul McDonald is closer to Moon in 14th than he is to Kitna.) Kitna would return as Detroit's starter in 2007, and though he would cut his numbers to 51 sacks and 20 interceptions, he still became the only player over to lead the league in both categories, and also qualified for our leaderboards here. Dave Krieg is the only other player to show up twice, for his 1985 season in Seattle and 1995 season in Arizona.

The most unkown players here are likely Paul McDonald, a one-year starter for the old Cleveland Browns in between the Brian Sipe and Bernie Kosar eras, and Cliff Stoudt, who filled the same role for Pittsburgh after Terry Bradshaw but before Mark Malone. Richard Todd, the Jets' first-round draft pick in 1976, makes the list for his 1983 season, but that may not have been his worst mark. He led the NFL with 30 interceptions in 1980, and PFR lists him with 42 sacks that same year. That would be a geometric mean of 35.5, which would be higher than almost anything listed here.

The career leaders in these numbers are all good players. Vinny Testaverde, Dave Krieg, and Carson Palmer each played in multiple Pro Bowls; each of the others is a Hall of Famer and/or played in at least one Super Bowl. You've gotta produce a lot of yards and touchdowns if you're going to last long enough to rack up sacks and interceptions.

Highest Career Geometric Mean Between
Sacks and Interceptions, 1982-2019
Player INT Sk GM
Brett Favre 336 525 420.0
John Elway 226 516 341.5
Vinny Testaverde 267 417 333.7
Warren Moon 233 458 326.7
Eli Manning 241 408 313.6
Drew Bledsoe 206 467 310.2
Ben Roethlisberger 191 503 310.0
Dave Krieg 194 482 305.8
Drew Brees 235 396 305.1
Tom Brady 174 483 289.9
Philip Rivers 184 423 279.0
Peyton Manning 251 303 275.8
Dan Marino 252 270 260.8
Kerry Collins 196 337 257.0
Randall Cunningham 134 484 254.7
Carson Palmer 187 340 252.2
Boomer Esiason 184 318 241.9
Jim Kelly 175 323 237.7
Chris Chandler 146 380 235.5
Matt Hasselbeck 153 360 234.7

It's more intriguing to look at the per-game leaderboard, limiting our list to players with at least 48 starts (theoretically, three full seasons).

Highest Geometric Mean Between
Sacks and Interceptions Per Game, 1982-2019
Player INT Sk GM G GS GM/G
Lynn Dickey 79 127 100.2 52 50 1.93
Neil Lomax 80 330 162.5 94 94 1.73
Tim Couch 67 166 105.5 62 59 1.70
Daunte Culpepper 106 298 177.7 105 100 1.69
Danny White 88 173 123.4 74 60 1.67
Joe Theismann 49 149 85.4 52 52 1.64
Jon Kitna 165 323 230.9 141 124 1.64
Jameis Winston 68 147 100.0 62 60 1.61
Blake Bortles 75 195 120.9 75 73 1.61
Marc Bulger 93 254 153.7 96 95 1.60
Drew Bledsoe 206 467 310.2 194 193 1.60
Phil Simms 115 364 204.6 129 125 1.59
Randall Cunningham 134 484 254.7 161 135 1.58
Aaron Brooks 92 235 147.0 93 90 1.58
Dan Fouts 100 118 108.6 69 66 1.57
Warren Moon 233 458 326.7 208 203 1.57
Mark Sanchez 89 168 122.3 79 73 1.55
Ryan Tannehill 76 252 138.4 90 88 1.54
Rick Mirer 76 199 123.0 80 68 1.54
Jeff George 113 358 201.1 131 124 1.54
Minimum 48 starts.

Now that looks more like a list of quarterbacks where you could count on things going wrong at the worst possible time -- and yes, Jameis Winston is among them. Blake Bortles and Ryan Tannehill are the other active passers who qualify. Joe Theismann and Phil Simms won Super Bowls, and Drew Bledsoe played in one. The others often put up impressive numbers, but for one reason or another were never able to perform on football's ultimate stage.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kirk Cousins MIN
22/29
333
4
1
1
181
185
-5
PHI
The Vikings jumped out to a 24-3 lead on Sunday before the Eagles rallied to make it 24-17. And then Cousins put an end to that -- from that point to the end of the game he went 10-of-12 for 124 yards and a touchdown, plus a 13th throw that resulted in a 9-yard DPI. Weirdly, he also went 10-of-12 with a touchdown and a DPI on throws to his left, gaining a total of 189 yards.
2.
Russell Wilson SEA
23/33
295
2
0
3
166
164
2
CLE
Wilson was lights-out on midrange passes that traveled between 5 and 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, going ... wait for it ... 10-of-12 with a DPI. Each of those completions gained at least 8 yards and a first down, and those 13 throws gained a total of 141 yards. On throws to his right, he went 9-of-10 for 123 yards; eight of those completions resulted in first downs, including a touchdown.
3.
Kyler Murray ARI
27/36
340
3
0
0
158
145
13
ATL
All three of Murray's touchdowns came on throws to his left, where he went 11-of-14 for 166 yards. Murray loses 51 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
4.
Matt Ryan ATL
30/36
356
4
0
2
150
154
-4
ARI
Too little, too late department: From the time the Falcons fell behind 27-10 to the end of the game, Ryan went 19-of-23 for 258 yards and three touchdowns. (Come to think of it, the Falcons did tie this game and had the ball with a chance to take the lead, so I guess it wasn't too late, just too little.) Ryan loses 59 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
5.
Dak Prescott DAL
28/40
277
0
0
1
123
122
1
NYJ
Prescott was also too-little-but-not-too-late as the Cowboys came within a two-point conversion of tying the game. Regardless, he was at his best in the fourth quarter, when he went 11-of-15 for 94 yards with one sack and three (THREE!) DPIs for 50 more yards.
6.
Deshaun Watson HOU
30/42
280
1
2
0
107
93
14
KC
There are more weapons in Watson's arsenal then his game-breaking wide receivers. Watson completed nine of ten throws to tight ends Darren Fells and Jordan Akins, gaining 108 yards.
7.
Carson Wentz PHI
26/40
306
2
1
2
92
80
12
MIN
Wentz threw a lot of deep balls against Minnesota, going 6-of-11 for 163 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
8.
Patrick Mahomes KC
19/35
273
3
1
1
86
86
0
HOU
Mahomes did have a 46-yard touchdown on third-and-21 to Tyreek Hill, but none of his other six throws on deep balls were completed, while one was intercepted.
9.
Lamar Jackson BAL
21/32
236
0
0
1
72
40
32
CIN
Not counting kneeldowns, Jackson had 16 carries for 155 yards against Cincinnati, including a 21-yard touchdown. That includes three scrambles for 53 yards. Officially, he averaged 17.0 rushes per game in his seven starts as a rookie. This year that average is down to 11.5, but as we saw on Sunday, he'll still run all day when given the opportunity. Jackson loses 57 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
10.
Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA
12/17
132
1
0
0
60
58
1
WAS
Fitzpatrick came into the game with Miami down by 14 points in the fourth quarter and would have rallied them to victory if his receiver had not dropped a screen pass on a potentially game-winning two-point conversion attempt.
11.
Sam Darnold NYJ
23/32
338
2
1
2
46
48
-2
DAL
For all that Darnold did right on Sunday, he had a terrible day on third downs, going 1-of-6 with an interception. At least that one completion did pick up 24 yards on third-and-4.
12.
Teddy Bridgewater NO
24/36
240
1
0
3
41
44
-3
JAX
With or without Jalen Ramsey, the Jaguars stifled Bridgewater on throws to his right, limiting him to five completions in eight attempts for just 41 yards.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Aaron Rodgers GB
24/39
285
2
1
1
40
32
7
DET
14.
Kyle Allen CAR
20/32
227
2
0
2
36
48
-12
TB
Funny, random splits: In his first five and last five pass attempts in this game, Allen went 2-of-10 for 3 yards. Obviously, he was a lot better in between.
15.
Philip Rivers LAC
27/44
320
2
2
1
33
33
0
PIT
Rivers picked apart the middle of the Steelers defense, going 13-of-18 for 180 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
16.
Matthew Stafford DET
18/32
265
0
0
3
24
19
5
GB
17.
Tom Brady NE
31/41
334
0
1
3
19
13
6
NYG
Brady went 17-for-22 in Giants territory, which sounds good, but those 17 completions gained only 138 yards, and none of them resulted in touchdowns. Meanwhile, he was sacked twice, fumbling on one (the ball was returned for a New York touchdown), and also threw an interception.
18.
Devlin Hodges PIT
15/20
132
1
1
0
13
17
-4
LAC
Third-down passing: 8-of-9 for 76 yards and a touchdown, though only four of those completions picked up a first down.
19.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
13/16
144
0
1
4
11
9
1
DEN
Tannehill came into this game with Tennessee down by 13 points in the third quarter. He had an ***awful*** day in the red zone, going 1-of-3 for 8 yards with no touchdowns, two sacks, and an interception.
20.
Joe Flacco DEN
18/28
177
0
1
1
-5
-2
-2
TEN
Third-down passing: 5-of-10 for 43 yards with two conversions, one interception, and one sack.
21.
Andy Dalton CIN
21/39
235
0
1
2
-26
-32
7
BAL
Dalton was best on throws to his left, going 8-of-11 for 95 yards.
22.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
24/33
243
0
1
2
-32
-39
7
LAR
Red zone passing: 2-of-5 for 20 yards with no touchdowns and one interception.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Case Keenum WAS
13/25
166
2
0
0
-39
-16
-23
MIA
Keenum was phenomenal in scoring range, going 5-of-7 for 82 yards and two touchdowns inside the Miami 40. The fact that he's still way down here in the tables should tell you how ineffective he was over the rest of the field. He loses 60 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, most of any quarterback this week -- in only 25 dropbacks!
24.
Baker Mayfield CLE
22/37
249
1
3
0
-42
-65
23
SEA
Take out second downs and Mayfield was a top-ten passer this week. On second downs, Mayfield went 10-of-17 for only 76 yards and all three of his interceptions.
25.
Gardner Minshew JAX
14/29
163
0
1
2
-49
-45
-3
NO
Minshew struggled in short-yardage against New Orleans. With 4 yards or less to go for a first down, he went 1-of-4 with a sack. That one completion was a 23-yard gain on third-and-1 at least.
26.
Jared Goff LAR
13/24
78
0
0
4
-81
-65
-16
SF
Goff only picked up one first down in this game, and it came with the Rams down by 13 points with less than four minutes left in the fourth quarter. In San Francisco territory, he went 4-of-7 for 12 yards and no first downs. On third and fourth downs, he went 2-of-8 for 3 yards with two sacks and no first downs. On throws to his left, he went 6-of-10 for 26 yards and no first downs. On throws that traveled at least 10 yards downfield, he went oh-for-five ... and no first downs. He would rank even lower, but he gets a big boost in opponent adjustments (63 DYAR) for playing San Francisco, and he did at least manage to avoid interceptions.
27.
Daniel Jones NYG
15/31
162
1
3
1
-82
-85
3
NE
Jones gets a league-high 73-DYAR boost due to opponent adjustments. Take away his last throw of the first half (a 64-yard touchdown to Golden Tate) and what he did in the third quarter, and he was horrific over the rest of this game: 9-of-22 for 45 yards with two interceptions and a sack. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-11 for 18 yards with only two conversions.
28.
Marcus Mariota TEN
7/18
63
0
2
3
-98
-100
2
DEN
Mariota did not have a successful dropback that started any deeper than his own 32-yard line (and even that was a DPI, not a completion). Outside that point -- as in, over the other two-thirds of the field -- Mariota went 2-of-7 for 11 yards with an interception and two sacks.
29.
Jameis Winston TB
30/54
400
1
5
7
-177
-168
-9
CAR
We wrote over a thousand words about what a terrible day Jameis Winston had and he wasn't even the worst quarterback of the week. This is partly because he gained 70 DYAR due to opponent adjustments (the Panthers aren't as good as the Patriots or 49ers, but opponent adjustments add up, and Winston had 61 dropbacks), and partly because the Dolphins are just ruining the whole season for everybody.
30.
Josh Rosen MIA
15/25
85
0
2
5
-216
-216
0
WAS
Rosen only threw for two more first downs than Jared Goff. He did not convert a single third down against Washington, going 3-of-6 for 24 yards with an interception and two sacks. (He did convert his one fourth-down throw with a completion to Nick O'Leary, but even there the Dolphins were fortunate to recover O'Leary's fumble, because OH MY GOD MIAMI.) He did not have a single dropback in the red zone; in Washington territory, he went 4-of-9 for 22 yards with an interception.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Devonta Freeman ATL
19
93
0
3/3
30
2
53
19
34
ARI
Freeman rushed for six first downs, including three runs of 10 yards or more, while only being stuffed three times. Two of his catches went for touchdowns; the other was an 11-yard gain on first-and-10.
2.
Miles Sanders PHI
3
6
0
3/3
86
1
49
-2
51
MIN
Sanders is here because of two plays: a 32-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter and a 45-yard gain in the third. Both were caught more than 20 yards downfield. Sanders was barely a "running" back at all this week.
3.
Jamaal Williams GB
14
104
0
4/5
32
1
49
33
16
DET
4.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
28
105
1
4/7
47
0
48
11
37
NYJ
Elliott had five first downs on the ground, the longest a 13-yarder, while being stuffed five times. Four of his catches resulted in first downs, and he also gained 24 yards and another first down on a DPI.
5.
Chase Edmonds ARI
5
34
0
2/2
33
1
42
16
27
ATL
All five of Edmonds' carries gained at least 2 yards. His two catches were a 2-yard touchdown on third-and-goal and a 31-yard gain, both in the second quarter.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jamaal Williams GB
14
104
0
4/5
32
1
49
33
16
DET
2.
Chris Carson SEA
24
124
1
4/4
35
0
35
21
14
CLE
This is the third week in a row that Carson has been a top-five running back after finishing last against the Saints in Week 3. He was only stuffed three times against Cleveland while running for six first downs, including gains of 23 and 25 yards.
3.
Devonta Freeman ATL
19
93
0
3/3
30
2
53
19
34
ARI
4.
Brandon Bolden NE
3
23
1
2/2
22
0
28
18
10
NYG
Bolden's three carries: a 21-yard gain on first-and-10; a 1-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 2; and a 1-yard touchdown on third-and-goal. It, uh, it wasn't a big week for running backs.
5.
Dalvin Cook MIN
16
41
1
2/2
13
0
20
17
3
PHI
Cook is only here because of opponent adjustments -- without them, he was barely above replacement level. He had five first downs on the ground, the longest a 14-yarder, while being stuffed five times.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Derrick Henry TEN
15
28
0
1/3
5
0
-48
-33
-14
DEN
Henry's only catch was a 5-yard gain on second-and-10.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Derrick Henry TEN
15
28
0
1/3
5
0
-48
-33
-14
DEN
Henry did not run for a single first down against Denver, while getting stuffed five times. His longest run gained only 6 yards.

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Stefon Diggs MIN
7
11
167
23.9
3
98
PHI
Diggs' totals include 79 DYAR receiving, 18 DYAR rushing for his two carries for 18 yards. His three touchdowns went for 62, 51, and 11 yards.
2.
Chris Godwin TB
10
12
151
15.1
0
66
CAR
This is the fourth time in six weeks that Godwin has made the top five receivers. Each of his 10 catches gained at least 9 yards, and eight gained first downs.
3.
Hunter Henry LAC
8
9
100
12.5
2
48
PIT
Henry had six first downs against Pittsburgh, including a pair of red zone touchdowns. His longest catch gained 21 yards.
4.
Austin Hooper ATL
8
8
117
14.6
1
41
ARI
Each of Hooper's catches gained at least 6 yards, the longest a 30-yarder.
5.
Curtis Samuel CAR
4
6
70
17.5
1
40
TB
Samuel's totals include 22 DYAR receiving, 18 DYAR rushing for his 8-yard touchdown run. His receptions included a 13-yard touchdown and 21- and 30-yard gains.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Tyler Boyd CIN
3
7
10
3.3
0
-40
BAL
None of Boyd's catches gained more than 5 yards or led to a first down. His one successful catch was a 5-yard gain on first-and-10.

Comments

62 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2019, 8:30pm

1 Richard Todd. Ryan Leaf…

Richard Todd. Ryan Leaf. JaMarcus Russell.

Never draft a QB with two first names in the first round.

60 Andy DaltonLamar Jackson…

In reply to by LyleNM

Andy Dalton

Lamar Jackson

Kyler Murray

Chase Daniel

Philip Rivers, hey we've got a Rivers on the staff!

Daniel Jones

And Jameis Winston.

Now I want some real analysis of what percentage of last names double as first names.

Edit: No idea why I included Daniel Jones. It feels like a first name, but it's... not.

52 Leaf is a first name???

Did I miss something about the two first name thing?

I been around the block a few times and never met nor heard of a Leaf. 

Aaah, Leif... generally pronounced Lafe, but I get it now.

2 I'm surprised to see Neil…

I'm surprised to see Neil Lomax at the top of the career list, as he was well-known for his low interception rate. In the days when only Joe Montana threw picks at a rate we would, in 2019, consider reasonable, Lomax was sometimes a distant but clear second. He had a below average pick rate in every season except his rookie year, which is not included in this survey. Granted, he took a shedload of sacks, apparently enough to cancel out the interceptions. But he was one of my favorite QBs, and in his defense I'd note that he played in a division with LT, Dexter Manley, Too Tall Jones/Jim Jeffcoat, and briefly Reggie White.

53 Joker "review"

Completely off-topic, but a buddy went to an advance screening in NYC a couple weeks ago.  Found it compelling, grueling, emotionally wrenching, and hard to process without a few beers afterwards.  So of course as the lights come up in the theater, in walk two dudes in hoodies.  He recognizes one as the director (they were classmates at NYU) and the other must be Phoenix (they were filming one of the late night talk shows and stopped in for impromptu audience feedback).  Best my friend could come up with was, "uh, it was intense."  He knew he was falling far short of what they wanted, but in the moment, said he was just gut-punched by the movie and couldn't link two cohesive thoughts. Then my friend added that it seemed to capture 1970s NYC better than movies actually shot in the 70's, to which the director basically said "so what?"

Though he recommended it.

57 Ah, my first solo trip to…

In reply to by Bobman

Ah, my first solo trip to the then Wormy Apple came in 1980, as a high school grad looking for a little bit of a transgressive tourist experience, so I didn't quite see absolute primetime feral dissolution, but it was still close enough. Walked all over the trash-ridden place, at all hours, with a length of rebar slipped up my jacket sleeve.Made friends and influenced people, and others did the same to me. Strange what I considered fun back in the day, and I think I'll wait until my little terrorists are about 35 before I tell them about those good ol' days. Think I'll slip the movie.

6 Diggs' and Cousins' numbers…

Diggs' and Cousins' numbers easily could have been better. Diggs dropped 3, iirc, including one that was then intercepted, and Cousins barely overthrew Diggs, who was 4-5 yards clear, 60 yards downfield, crossing into the end zone.

If my dog could get fitted with pads, he might get a job as a db with the Eagles....

14 Cousins also put a little…

Cousins also put a little too much air under a throw to Thielen that kept him from getting both feet down for another TD. On top of that on one of Diggs long TDs in which he was 5 yards clear, another receiver was even more open 40 yards deep on the other side of the field. That was some really horrid db play by the Eagles

15 That play also had a Vikings…

That play also had a Vikings receiver who was pretty much uncovered in the middle of the field, about 20 yards deep. It isn't often that you have, on the same play,  three receivers who are wide open, more than 20 yards downfield. Reminded me of the 2011 Vikings defense which made Tim Tebow look like Dan Marino one fine Sunday afternoon.

19 Yeah, the defender has to…

Yeah, the defender has to get closer than 10 yards to hump the receiver's leg! My dog would just jump up and lick Diggs' face, however, which would be better defense than what any Eagles db provided!

30 To be clear, if we're…

To be clear, if we're referencing the 51-yard TD:

"It isn't often that you have, on the same play,  three receivers who are wide open, more than 20 yards downfield."

that's not exactly true (yay, all 22 view). The base problem in my opinion is that the linebackers, safety near the line, and the other corner all bit hard on the play action. I'm pretty sure the coverage is cover-3, meaning the 3 linebackers and the safety all have underneath coverage. The safety (McLeod) isn't really out of position, but Bradham (53) and Zach Brown are *badly* out of position and have no hope of covering the crossing linebacker. You can see both Bradham and Brown wheel around when they see it's a pass and start chasing the receiver, but *way* behind. That's screwup #1. (Gerry, the third linebacker, is also *way* out of position but his reaction time's so bad that he's practically behind the line when he realizes it's not a run).

The corner *also* is convinced it's a run and holds up a moment - still looking at Cook - before turning to chase Johnson. That slight holdup is screwup #2.

Jenkins (the initial deep safety, who's supposed to have the middle of the field) closes on the crossing receiver instead of dropping deep. That's screwup #3, but it does mean the underneath receiver isn't really "open" - Jenkins would've closed on him if he hadn't remembered "oh crap, I'm a deep safety on this play." So it's a screwup but it's a screwup because he saw somebody else's giant screwup.

Jenkins took responsibility on that play but I'm not sure I buy that. He made a mistake, sure, but if he *had* done his job and gone deep to help with Diggs, Cousins would've hit the wide-open underneath receiver and possibly gotten a TD there because Brown was sooo badly beaten. *Or* he would've hit Bisi because Sidney Jones (the other CB) bit so hard on the run action.

Basically, the whole problem is due to 3-4 guys never believing that the play would be a pass, and so completely abandoning their coverage responsibilities. So it's not terribly surprising that the coverage looks like a disaster.

31 I'd pay an extra thousand a…

I'd pay an extra thousand a year for a rule that required miked up players to give Faulkner-like stream of consciousness commentary during plays. A saftey screaming "oh crap i'm a deep safety on this play!" might only be topped by Blake Bortles blurting out "squirrel!" just before throwing it to a linebacker.

 

54 If memory serves, the…

If memory serves, the Faulkner-like stream of consciousness would have to go on for a solid 2-5 minutes without a period.  Would denigrate half of the opposing team with racial slurs and the speaker's paranoid victim complex, then contemplate some pointless act to "show them all." 

Or, if you're thinking of the opening scene of The Sound and The Fury, basically sound like Chris Collinsworth.

8 12 SKINTs

How rare is it to see a dozen combined sacks and interceptions (SKINTs?) in one game? The last player to do it was Cam Newton in 2014, in a game against Philadelphia that we talked about last week. Terrelle Pryor did it against Kansas City the year before. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1998, the Donald Hollas game referenced in the Pro Football Reference Tweet that started this discussion.

Donovan McNabb got sacked 12 times in the Winston Justice Game in 2007.

20 Iirc, they kept leaving…

In reply to by Independent George

Iirc, they kept leaving Winston on an island the entire game. It was as if Andy Reid kept telling himself... He's giving up this many already, you can't possibly give up any more can he??

 

I remember watching that game and thinking... This has become some kind of weird science experiment or modern Art exhibition with all of these sacks.

9 Sacks as official statistic

The single-game record for SKINTs since sacks became an official statistic in 1982 belongs to Warren Moon, who threw four interceptions and suffered a dozen sacks against the Cowboys in 1985. (Pro Football Reference actually has sack data for earlier seasons, but to keep things simple I am restricting this to official sack numbers.)

Sacks became an official stat for individual defensive players in 1982, but has been an official sack for quarterbacks since 1963.

21 It seems like jameis Winston…

It seems like jameis Winston is The heir apparent to the great and seemingly till now incomparable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Perhaps not coincidentally a former teammate of his.

Unfortunately for jameis, Fitzpatrick as a starter tops out as a borderline playoff team in a season where the ball mostly bounces his way.

At least no game is dull when either quarterback is playing, unless they are playing for the dolphins.

22 Hm.

"Other players here enjoyed long, notable careers -- including Ron Jaworski, Randall Cunningham, and Archie Manning -- but most of the rest are either draft busts or anonymous footnotes."

I mean... Jay's right there, Vince.

23 I was pretty happy for Kirk…

I was pretty happy for Kirk cousins and laughed even harder Zac Brown got cut the following day. I'm glad the media made him eat crow. Don't run your mouth like that next time.

For some reason the media chooses a favorite whipping boy. They did this with Jay Cutler because apparently his facial expressions kind of sort of maybe showed he didnt care about football.

I have always said, don't blame Kirk cousins that he got paid... Blame the team. no player should ever apologize for trying to make as much money as they can in a violent sport where the career is finite.

26 I won't speak for the media,…

I won't speak for the media, but I excoriated Cutler because he had supreme physical gifts, significantly better than Cousins', above average intelligence, wedded to a horsehit work ethic, resulting in a guy who, throughout his career made the same undisciplined mistakes, often due to poor throwing mechanics, often without regard to protection. I've ripped Cousins, but never due to any evidence that he isn't giving all that he has.

34 The MS media and fans seem…

The MS media and fans seem to have black spot when it comes to players who are probably overpaid, but still do an ok job. The way Cousins was being addressed 3/4 weeks into this season you would have thought we were talking about Blake Bortles, rather than a QB with a solid track record of above average play who happened to have had a couple of bad games. C'est la vie. 

38 People seem to have a hard…

People seem to have a hard time wrapping their mind around the fact that there exists a giant middle ground between Patrick mahomes and someone like Blake Bortles. 

Kirk cousins is a good but flawed quarterback, he's just a lot more high-variance than a typical quarterback. I don't know if you can name 10 quarterbacks that are definitively better than he is.

35 Good grief

Opponent adjustments

Winston +70 DYAR
Jones +73
Goff +63

Keenum -60
Ryan -59
Murray -51
Jackson -57

Good grief! What would these have been with full adjustments? Or are week 6 partials only for DVOA?

42 Bit surprising that Chubb's…

Bit surprising that Chubb's 20-122 (6.1 YPA) and 2 TDs against a league-average rush defense isn't on the Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) list (he did have a fumble, but as a receiver), but it makes more sense looking through his runs. He had a 52-yarder and a 21-yarder, the two short touchdowns, and no other first downs. Still, I imagine he's sixth or seventh on the list.

43 Rosen with -413 DYAR through…

Rosen with -413 DYAR through 125 dropbacks. At this rate, if he ends up with as many snaps as last year (-1145 DYAR with 439 dropbacks, the worst season in FO history), he'll accumulate... -1514 DYAR!

I know he's been put in the worst conceivable situations, but he's about a third-string QB at this point.

44 That raises the fascinating…

That raises the fascinating chicken and egg question - did the environment wreck him or was he destined to be what he is? No doubt, the situations have made him look awful, but i think we all agree, Bortles or Gabbert aren't going to move the needle even with all start talent around them. Is Josh Rosen worth taking a flyer on at this point?

48 Feedback

I'm surprised to see Neil Lomax at the top of the career list, as he was well-known for his low interception rate. In the days when only Joe Montana threw picks at a rate we would, in 2019, consider reasonable, Lomax was sometimes a distant but clear second. He had a below average pick rate in every season except his rookie year, which is not included in this survey. Granted, he took a shedload of sacks, apparently enough to cancel out the interceptions. But he was one of my favorite QBs, and in his defense I'd note that he played in a division with LT, Dexter Manley, Too Tall Jones/Jim Jeffcoat, and briefly Reggie White.

Indeed. He was in the top six in lowest interception rate seven times, but in the top six in sacks taken eight times.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LomaNe00.htm

Remember my QB Styles column in Week 2? Lomax would have landed more or less in between Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers in the first graph. He was quite an outlier.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-2-quick-reads

Donovan McNabb got sacked 12 times in the Winston Justice Game in 2007.

That's an error in my research where I overlooked low-INT, mega-sack games like that one. I've noted a correction. Thanks for pointing that out.

Sacks became an official stat for individual defensive players in 1982, but has been an official sack for quarterbacks since 1963.

Really? I didn't know that. Interesting. Thanks!

"Other players here enjoyed long, notable careers -- including Ron Jaworski, Randall Cunningham, and Archie Manning -- but most of the rest are either draft busts or anonymous footnotes."

I mean... Jay's right there, Vince.

Right. Which is why I said "most" of the rest and not "all."

Good grief! What would these have been with full adjustments? Or are week 6 partials only for DVOA?

No, opponent adjustments are still only at partial strength -- 50%, I believe. The gap between the best and worst defenses is just staggering this year. We'll get into this down the road.

I'm mostly surprised Aaron Brooks didn't get a 12 SKINT game

His high was nine -- two interceptions and seven sacks against Atlanta in 2003. Fun fact: the Saints won that day! This was the year Michael Vick broke his leg and Kurt Kittner went 8-of-27 for 80 yards in his place.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200311160nor.htm

Bit surprising that Chubb's 20-122 (6.1 YPA) and 2 TDs against a league-average rush defense isn't on the Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) list (he did have a fumble, but as a receiver), but it makes more sense looking through his runs. He had a 52-yarder and a 21-yarder, the two short touchdowns, and no other first downs. Still, I imagine he's sixth or seventh on the list.

Actually, he was only 10th among RBs in rushing DYAR. Only the four first downs, as you noted, and he's dinged heavily for failures to convert on three runs with 2 yards or less to go for a first down.

49 That two-point conversion...

"Fitzpatrick came into the game with Miami down by 14 points in the fourth quarter and would have rallied them to victory if his receiver had not dropped a screen pass on a potentially game-winning two-point conversion attempt."

Lots of people have said this, but I think that play was doomed even before Kenyan Drake dropped the pass. There were at least two defenders between him and the goal line, and his blocker was already on the ground.

It's also not hard to believe that he was quietly told by coaches, "no one will hold it against you if you drop the pass." I mean, why not?

55 "It's also not hard to…

"It's also not hard to believe that he was quietly told by coaches, "no one will hold it against you if you drop the pass." I mean, why not?"

I still can't believe Brian Flores and his staff want to lose every game.  Buying into this being a re-building year is one thing, but throwing away their careers being associated with an 0-16 team is something else entirely.  He's a rookie head coach.  I can't believe he'll willingly go into the record book as the worst rookie head coach ever.

And for evidence, if tanking was the strategy, no way Rosen gets pulled.  Because based on the stats, it seems Rosen was working the tank like a mad man.

61 I'm not saying that was…

I'm not saying that was definitely the case, but it's certainly a possibility. You might not want to lose every game (I certainly wouldn't), but you also don't want to lose the first-overall pick to Washington on tiebreakers.

Rosen benching aside, the Dolphins could have kicked a PAT to tie the game and try for overtime. Instead they went for two (which I generally agree with)...then threw a relatively easy pass that got dropped.

I think you're probably right that they were trying to win the game, but I have reasonable doubt that they weren't.