Quick Reads
The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 9 Quick Reads

Kyler Murray under pressure
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Vincent Verhei

If you read our comments in Audibles at the Line towards the end of the Patriots-Ravens game, you'll see that we discussed Lamar Jackson's performance in the win over New England and Kyler Murray's breakout in a Thursday night loss to San Francisco, guessing they might be among the best games of the year. As it turns out, that's not the case, but they were two of the best games of the week.

At first glance, that might be surprising. Jackson only threw for 163 yards against the Patriots, and though he was efficient (completing 74 percent of his passes), he was not very explosive, with just one touchdown pass and averaging 7.1 yards per throw. He also ran for 64 yards and two scores, but that's still modest overall production. Murray's numbers are a little more eye-opening -- he completed 71 percent of his passes for an average of 10.0 yards a toss -- but his totals of 241 passing yards (and 34 more on the ground) are still pretty mundane. Even before the Monday night game between the Cowboys and Giants, neither Jackson nor Murray ranked in the top 10 in total offense for the week. How can they rank so high in our numbers if they did so little to actually move their teams down the field?

The biggest reason, as you have likely guessed by now, is opponent adjustments. Neither Jackson nor Murray were threatening any records, but they had the best passing statistics of any quarterback who has played the Patriots and/or 49ers defenses so far this year. (Through nine weeks, Baker Mayfield is the only quarterback who has played against both, because every single thing that can go badly for Cleveland always will go badly for Cleveland). Jackson is the 11th player to throw a pass against New England in 2019, but the only one to do so without throwing an interception. He is one of only three players to throw a touchdown against the Patriots. No quarterback who has faced Bill Belichick's defense has completed a higher percentage passes or taken fewer sacks, and only Matt Barkley (who played less than a quarter against the Pats in Week 4) has averaged more yards per pass.

It's a similar story for Murray against San Francisco. Only Case Keenum had a higher completion rate against the 49ers, and he did it in an ultra-conservative game plan that averaged fewer yards per completion than Murray averaged per pass. Murray's 10-yard average is two-and-a-half yards better than any what any other passer has done against Richard Sherman and company, and he is the only player to throw two touchdowns and no picks against the scarlet & gold.

This is just what great quarterback games look like when they play against great defenses. I went back and checked the top ten pass defenses in DVOA history to see which quarterbacks had the best games against them (as measured by passing DYAR). Here are the results:

Most DYAR Against Each Team in Pass Defense DVOA Top 10, 1986-2018
Year Def Pass
DVOA
Week Player Off DYAR Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk
1986 CHI -40.8% 7 Tommy Kramer MIN 178 12 18 239 2 0 1
1988 MIN -38.8% 16 Mike Tomczak CHI 147 16 32 285 2 1 1
1991 PHI -48.6% 11 Bernie Kosar CLE 156 14 33 246 3 1 2
1991 NO -33.1% 14 Steve Bono SF 230 27 41 347 3 0 1
1999 TB -32.2% 4 Randall Cunningham MIN 211 26 34 296 3 1 0
2002 TB -51.9% 16 Tommy Maddox PIT 209 17 23 236 1 0 2
2004 BUF -34.7% 4 Tom Brady NE 225 17 30 298 2 0 0
2008 PIT -32.8% 10 Peyton Manning IND 158 21 40 240 3 0 2
2009 NYJ -36.5% 5 Chad Henne MIA 220 20 26 241 2 0 0
2013 SEA -34.2% 5 Andrew Luck IND 162 16 29 229 2 0 2

You're probably familiar with most of those defenses, but just in case, let's run them down. In chronological order, you've got:

  • the 1986 Bears (led by Wilber Marshall, Dan Hampton, and Mike Singletary);
  • the 1988 Vikings (Keith Millard, Carl Lee, Joey Browner)
  • the 1991 Eagles (Clyde Simmons, Reggie White, Jerome Brown);
  • the 1991 Dome Patrol Saints (Pat Swilling, Sam Mills, Rickey Jackson);
  • the 1999 and 2002 Buccaneers (Derrick Brooks, Simeon Rice, Warren Sapp);
  • the 2004 Bills (Takeo Spikes, Terrence McGee, Nate Clements);
  • the 2008 Steelers (James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, James Farrior);
  • the 2009 Jets (David Harris, Darrelle Revis, Shaun Ellis);
  • and the 2013 Legion of Boom Seahawks (Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor).

One thing is clear: if you want to have a good day against a great pass defense, you should try to find a quarterback named Tom. Or Tommy. Or Tomczak. If we ever calculate DVOA for the 1940s, I can only assume that Tommy Thompson will be a thorn in the side of the top defenses of that era.

Once you get your Tom, it is critical that he hang onto the dang ball -- these ten passers threw a total of three interceptions, and never more than one in a game. They also mitigated disaster by avoiding sacks, taking a total of 11 between them.

Mostly, though, we see that even the best games against elite pass defenses have limited volume. Only one of these quarterbacks, Steve Bono, went over 300 yards, and it took him 40-plus passes to get there. They averaged 266 yards apiece, and most were below 250. Collectively they completed 61% of their passes for 8.7 yards per throw. Those numbers look erratic and explosive in today's environment, but keep in mind we're looking at a small number of games over more than three decades of football, and standards have changed wildly over those times. And while we're keeping things in mind, let's remember that so far we only have full DVOA back to 1986 -- which means we do not yet have DYAR for the Super Bowl Shuffle Bears of 1985, or the 270-yard, three-touchdown game Dan Marino had against them. Considering that in their other 15 contests, those Bears only gave up 13 passing touchdowns and an average of 202 yards, we're confident that Marino's game would show up in an updated version of this table once our 1985 analysis is complete.

As for this season, you won't find the best games of Week 9 among the best games of 2019. Even with opponent adjustments, Jackson and Murray just didn't have the volume necessary to show up at the top of that list. The best game of year came in the first Cowboys-Giants matchup, in Week 1, when Dak Prescott went off for 400-plus yards and four scores.

Top Quarterback Games by Total DYAR, Weeks 1-9, 2019
Player Team Week Cp Att Yds TD Int Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Def
Dak Prescott DAL 1 25 32 405 4 0 0 264 254 10 NYG
Aaron Rodgers GB 7 25 31 429 5 0 1 259 251 8 OAK
Deshaun Watson HOU 5 28 33 426 5 0 0 241 241 0 ATL
Russell Wilson SEA 3 32 49 406 2 0 0 213 179 34 NO
Kirk Cousins MIN 7 24 34 337 4 0 0 209 209 0 DET
Tom Brady NE 1 24 36 341 3 0 1 204 204 0 PIT
Matt Ryan ATL 3 29 34 304 3 1 0 202 203 -1 IND
Russell Wilson SEA 5 17 23 268 4 0 1 201 193 8 LAR
Matthew Stafford DET 7 30 45 364 4 1 2 200 200 0 MIN
Patrick Mahomes KC 1 25 33 378 3 0 0 199 205 -7 JAX

Note: Numbers below do not include the TB-SEA overtime period due to a computer error.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Lamar Jackson BAL
17/23
163
1
0
1
165
144
22
NE
Jackson's passing was spotty at the start of drives, but his accuracy improved once he left the shadow of his own end zone. Between the Baltimore 40 and the New England goal line, he went 9-of-12 for 101 yards. All nine of those completions picked up first downs, including a touchdown.
2.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
28/37
317
4
0
1
155
158
-3
ARI
Third-/fourth-down passing: 13-of-15 for 160 yards plus a 5-yard DPI and one sack with 11 conversions, including all four touchdowns.
3.
Kyler Murray ARI
17/24
241
2
0
3
141
142
-1
SF
It was all or nothing for Murray against San Francisco. He only threw for eight first downs, which was not even in the top 20 this week, but those eight plays gained an average of 23.3 yards, third-most. (The two players ahead of him were Mitchell Trubisky and Brandon Allen, so this may not be a particularly meaningful stat.)
4.
Philip Rivers LAC
21/28
294
0
0
2
131
133
-2
GB
On throws down the middle of the field, Rivers went 5-of-6 for 101 yards.
5.
Russell Wilson SEA
24/35
308
4
0
3
128
116
13
TB
Throughout his career, Wilson's best throws have usually been deep balls, but this year he has gotten very proficient on screens and checkdowns. On throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, he went 7-of-8 for 56 yards. Six of those completions picked up first downs, including a touchdown. For the season, only Teddy Bridgewater has more DYAR on such passes.
6.
Derek Carr OAK
20/30
289
2
0
1
126
126
0
DET
Carr threw nine passes that traveled 7 to 17 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. All nine were complete, for eight first downs (including a touchdown) and 131 total yards.
7.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
27/37
331
1
2
4
125
114
11
CAR
Because he had 41 dropbacks against a good Carolina defense, Tannehill gained 61 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, second-most behind Kyler Murray this week.
8.
Deshaun Watson HOU
22/28
201
2
0
1
114
109
4
JAX
In the red zone and front zone (the area between Jacksonville's 20- and 40-yard lines), Watson completed each of his seven passes for 66 yards and two touchdowns, with one sack.
9.
Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA
24/36
288
3
0
4
113
110
3
NYJ
Fitzpatrick was phenomenal when throwing to his right, going 9-of-12 for 131 yards and a touchdown.
10.
Jameis Winston TB
29/44
335
2
0
2
106
98
8
SEA
Winston, like Russell Wilson, is known for his deep balls, but that's not how he almost beat the Seahawks. He threw nine passes that traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage against Seattle, and none were complete (although one did result in a DPI for 16 yards).
11.
Carson Wentz PHI
26/39
239
1
0
4
86
79
7
CHI
With or without DeSean Jackson, the Eagles just can't get any big plays out of their wide receivers. On passes to Jackson, Nelson Agholor, and Alshon Jeffery, Wentz went 8-of-17 for all of 62 yards, and a long catch of only 13 yards. An 18th throw resulted in a DPI for 8 more yards.
12.
Kirk Cousins MIN
19/38
220
3
0
1
81
84
-3
KC
Cousins had mixed results on third and fourth downs. He went 6-of-12 for only 66 yards and six conversions (plus one sack), but that includes all three of his touchdowns.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Baker Mayfield CLE
27/42
273
1
0
2
76
75
1
DEN
Most of the few big plays Mayfield had against Denver came on Cleveland's half of the field. Once crossing the 50, he went 14-of-24 for 104 yards with a 10-yard DPI, one sack, and one touchdown.
14.
Dak Prescott DAL
22/35
257
3
1
0
48
47
2
NYG
15.
Matthew Stafford DET
26/41
406
3
1
2
46
62
-16
OAK
For obvious reasons, the focus after the game was on Stafford's incompletion on fourth-and-goal at the gun, but he struggled in the red zone all day. Inside the Oakland 20, he went 3-of-8 for 18 yards with only one first down (a 2-yard touchdown to Marvin Jones), one sack, and one interception.
16.
Tom Brady NE
31/46
285
1
1
2
41
41
0
BAL
The Ravens mostly took away Brady's weapons to his left, limiting him to 9-of-14 passing for only 52 yards and a touchdown to throws in that direction. One of those completions was fumbled away, resulting in a Baltimore touchdown. Obviously that's not Brady's fault and does not affect his DYAR, but it does show how well the Ravens played on that side of the field.
17.
Matt Moore KC
25/34
275
1
0
5
37
37
0
MIN
Four of Moore's five sacks, and both of his fumbles, came in the fourth quarter. Somehow he and the Chiefs made enough plays to overcome those mistakes and rally for the win.
18.
Brandon Allen DEN
12/20
193
2
0
3
33
25
8
CLE
The Broncos averaged 8.8 yards after the catch on Allen's completions this week, second only to Kyler Murray (11.6).
19.
Josh Allen BUF
14/20
160
1
0
2
14
16
-1
WAS
Most of Allen's success came on throws to the outside. On throws down the middle, he went 4-of-5 for only 16 yards. One of those completions was an 8-yard loss on second-and-8.
20.
Brian Hoyer IND
17/26
168
3
1
4
9
10
-1
PIT
Just think, if Jacoby Brissett hadn't been hurt, we likely would have had three Allens in a row. But since Brissett did get hurt, this seems like a good place to point out that Hoyer had a full year's worth of red zone excitement in just one game. He had three red zone touchdowns on Sunday; that's only one fewer than Baker Mayfield or Mitchell Trubisky have thrown all year. But when Minkah Fitzpatrick took Hoyer to the house, it made Hoyer the only quarterback to throw a pick-six in the red zone this season.
21.
Kyle Allen CAR
17/32
232
2
1
3
-2
2
-4
TEN
Allen threw four passes down the middle against Tennessee. None were complete. One was intercepted.
22.
Mason Rudolph PIT
26/35
191
1
1
1
-7
-10
3
IND
Rudolph was at his best throwing down the middle against Indianapolis: 10-of-11 for 109 yards.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Aaron Rodgers GB
23/35
161
1
0
3
-25
-26
1
LAC
Most of Rodgers' good plays came after this game was already lost. At the point when the Chargers had gone up 26-3 in the fourth quarter, Rodgers had gone 11-of-19 for only 61 yards with three sacks.
24.
Gardner Minshew JAX
27/47
309
0
2
3
-29
-33
4
HOU
Minshew was OK at getting Jacksonville into Houston territory and not much good at anything beyond that. On the Texans' side of the 50, he went 5-of-17 for 44 yards with two sacks, a fumble, and an interception.
25.
Dwayne Haskins WAS
15/22
144
0
0
4
-30
-24
-7
BUF
Third-/fourth-down passing: 5-of-8 for 48 yards with two sacks and only one conversion.
26.
Mitchell Trubisky CHI
10/21
125
0
0
3
-38
-49
11
PHI
Trubisky only threw for three first downs, all of which came with the Bears down by at least 12 points in the second half. He gained 96 yards on those three plays, 29 yards on his other seven completions. He did not throw a single pass down the middle of the field.
27.
Daniel Jones NYG
26/41
210
1
1
5
-92
-96
4
DAL
28.
Sam Darnold NYJ
27/38
260
1
1
3
-116
-114
-2
MIA
Darnold is in the reverse situation of Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray -- his raw numbers don't look too bad, but he loses 95 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, most in the league this week. He is only the third quarterback to throw an interception against the Dolphins, and he is the first to surrender three sacks. He averaged 6.7 yards per throw, worse than everyone except Case Keenum. And he only threw one touchdown -- every other quarterback who has thrown double-digit passes against Miami threw for at least two scores.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Christian McCaffrey CAR
24
146
2
3/3
20
1
98
71
27
TEN
McCaffrey was stuffed just once in 24 carries while running for five first downs, the longest a 58-yard touchdown. His three catches: a 7-yard touchdown on fourth-and-2; a 3-yard gain on third-and-1; and a 10-yard gain on second-and-7.
2.
Kenyan Drake ARI
15
110
1
4/4
52
0
74
46
28
SF
Drake was stuffed just once in 15 carries while running for eight first downs, including gains of 11, 11, and 36 yards. His catches included a 21-yard gain on second-and-6 and a 17-yard gain on first-and-15.
3.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
23
139
0
0/0
0
0
61
61
0
NYG
4.
Devin Singletary BUF
20
95
1
3/4
45
0
42
37
5
WAS
Singletary ran for six first downs, with a pair of 17-yarders, while being stuffed twice. He only had one successful catch: a 49-yard gain on second-and-6.
5.
Melvin Gordon LAC
20
80
2
3/4
29
0
40
24
16
GB
Gordon was perfect in short yardage, converting all seven of his carries with 3 yards or less to go for a first down. Both of his stuffs came on first-and-10. All three of his catches resulted in first downs.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Christian McCaffrey CAR
24
146
2
3/3
20
1
98
71
27
TEN
2.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
23
139
0
0/0
0
0
61
61
0
NYG
3.
Kenyan Drake ARI
15
110
1
4/4
52
0
74
46
28
SF
4.
Devin Singletary BUF
20
95
1
3/4
45
0
42
37
5
WAS
5.
Josh Jacobs OAK
28
120
2
0/2
0
0
21
32
-12
DET
Jacobs was stuffed only once, while seven of his runs resulted in first downs, including a gain of 17.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Frank Gore BUF
11
15
0
0/0
0
0
-37
-37
0
WAS
Gore only ran for two first downs and his longest run gained only 6 yards, while he was stuffed five times.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Frank Gore BUF
11
15
0
0/0
0
0
-37
-37
0
WAS

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mike Evans TB
12
16
180
15.0
1
92
SEA
Each of Evans' catches resulted in a first down. So did his two DPIs for gains of 10 and 16 yards. That includes three third-down conversions.
2.
Tyreek Hill KC
6
8
140
23.3
1
73
MIN
Hill's totals include 65 DYAR receiving, 8 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 5 yards. Each of his catches picked up a first down. That includes a 40-yard touchdown and gains of 30 and 41 yards.
3.
Tyler Lockett SEA
12
15
148
12.3
2
57
TB
Ten of Lockett's catches produced first downs, including a 30-yard gain on second-and-22.
4.
Kenny Golladay DET
4
7
132
33.0
1
50
OAK
Each of Golladay's catches gained at least 21 yards and a first down; he also picked up a 26-yard DPI.
5.
Preston Williams MIA
5
9
72
14.4
2
44
NYJ
Before leaving the game with a torn ACL, Williams picked up a half-dozen first downs -- one on each of his caches, and one more on a 25-yard DPI. That includes a pair of third-down conversions.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jarius Wright CAR
0
4
0
0.0
0
-45
TEN
Wright's totals include -33 DYAR receiving, -12 DYAR rushing for his one carry for a 7-yard loss. Each of his targets came with 9 yards or less to go, and he still couldn't pick up a first down.

Comments

35 comments, Last at 06 Nov 2019, 7:17pm

1 I am not sure if this type…

I am not sure if this type of play is common enough to be tagged differently, but does Brandon Allen's hail Mary /kneel down / sack count like a normal sack? I seem to recall interceptions on hail Marys counting as incompletions, and was curious.

13 I did count that as a sack…

I did count that as a sack. It looks like he's attempting to pass. At some point we'll have to study if these "meaningless" final plays of a half are truly non-predictive and then put some sort of adjustment in for them.

24 Thanks! Watching the play it…

Thanks!
Watching the play it struck me as fairly logical of a before half play - see if someone gets crazy open, If not just drop to the turf and don't worry about it.  Seems like high value proposition, and if more teams try this (and if that's what the broncos had been trying), I'd be very interested in how predictive those plays ended up being.

2 Considering that in their…

Considering that in their other 15 contests, those Bears only gave up 13 passing touchdowns and an average of 202 yards, we're confident that Marino's game would show up in an updated version of this table once our 1985 analysis is complete. 

It's funny looking back, but Tommy Kramer had a 400-yard, 3 TD game against the '85 Bears. He was really a thorn in their sides. Although it's hard to argue that anyone was more effective at stopping the Bears than Mike Tomczak.

DeBerg also had a 300 yard game.

Oddly, the difference between those and the Dolphins game is that the Dolphins ran effectively.

4 Tommy Kramer might have been…

Tommy Kramer might have been a borderline HOF qb, absent a few setbacks, one being a serious knee injury that took away a lot of his mobility. Another being cheapskate ownership that traded away good and even great offensive linemen that would threaten holdouts in those years before free agency. The last being his affinity for libation-fueled socializing into the wee hours.  He was a tough sunovabitch, however, with an accurate and reasonably strong arm. It's kind on interesting to think of which guys would have had a more professional approach to an athletic career if they had been given the shot at generational wealth that came with free agency. Back in those days, a guy really could make as much money with a couple of fast food joints (which is what Kramer ended up doing after he stopped playing, iirc) as he could as a starting NFL QB, outside the huge media markets. Some guys, at least a few, may have taken a different approach with dozens of millions in play. Then again, some guys really like whiskey, among other attractions.

7 I've been a fan of the…

I've been a fan of the Vikings since the late 60s. I live in Toronto, and in the Grant days our national broadcaster CBC used to carry a lot of Viking games, probably for two reasons, the Vikings were really good then, and Grant was a CFL legend as coach of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. We didn't get much of the Vikings after Grant and Tarkenton left, so I very rarely saw Kramer as the Vikings were pretty mediocre in those days. My limited recollection was that he was kind of mediocre. But I notice Viking fans from that era thought of him as super talented but a bit of a wasted career for various reasons. 

 

 

17 If he had not been in good…

If he had not been in good measure physically ruined, some by his own doing, by 1986, when the roster began a huge upswing in quality, those high quality Vikings teams of the late 80s would have been much better situated to compete in ridiculously tough NFC of the era, with Walsh's, Parcells',  Gibbs', and Ditka's teams dominating. As it was, the Vikings did pretty well with Wade Freakin' Wilson screwing things up with consistency.  The Kramer of 1982, before blowing out the knee, would have made them better.

I'll never forget the qb abattior of the Steckel coached 1984 Vikings. One game, against the Bears,  after Kramer was severely concussed, then Archie Manning received a lesser concussion, Wade was sent out, only to have Dan Hampton break his collarbone or something, within about 3 plays. Steckel walks over to Archie to say he has to go back in, and Archie tells ol'Les the lesser to have anatomically impossible carnal relations with himself. Can't remember who they pressed into sacrificial service.

16 Yeah, no doubt. Middle…

Yeah, no doubt. Middle linebacker Scott Studwell, a really good player with a long career who went on to have a longer, and good, career in player personnel, was a smart guy who knew that keeping Kramer upright as possible off the field was in everyone's best interest. He was observed on many occasions around town acting as Kramer's informal handler, trying to keep the chaos manageable. When it gets to that point, all bets are off.

3 Which were...?

The biggest reason, as you have likely guessed by now, is opponent adjustments.
Which were...?

8 Cousins game is a perfect…

Cousins game is a perfect example of how hard it is to judge QB play. He missed a lot of easy throws and missed some wide open deep receivers choosing to check down. But he also made some really good throws on key plays. Did he play well, average, or badly? I have no idea.

18 Russell Wilson's numbers?

Russell Wilson's numbers here (24/35, 308, 4TD) do not match game stats (29/43, 347, 5TD). Are OT stats not counted for Quick Reads?

edit:  Also Lockett?

21 Previous quick reads show…

Previous quick reads show that OT stats definitely count, so it looks like his OT stats got completely left out somehow. Ditto on the QB ratings page, where he's only listed with 21 TDs.

22 Somehow the TB-SEA overtime…

Somehow the TB-SEA overtime got left out of my original data from this week. Not sure how that happened. Error at the NFL stats site? Anyway, I'll make sure that gets added in, although it may take a couple days.

19 D.K. Metcalf

Was D.K. Metcalf's DYAR in the conversation for WR?

20 Context

"On throws down the middle, he went 4-of-5 for only 16 yards. One of those completions was an 8-yard loss on second-and-8."

I feel like if you're going to mention this pass, it should be added that it was a tap pass, basically a handoff, that the defense played well rather than a bad decision by the QB.

23 If the Jets end up with the…

If the Jets end up with the first or second pick, do they cut bait on Darnold the way Arizona cut bait on Rosen?

I know its fashionable to blame all of this on Gase and he certainly deserves a lot of it, but his offenses to this point have never been this bad, even when he was forced to play Brock Osweiler at qb. Rarely does a qb play this badly and end up turning his career around. We certainly aren't giving that benefit to Rosen and most didn't even want to give it to Trubisky last year. Maybe Darnold is just a bad player?

26 The bigger question is…

The bigger question is whether this season ends up such a disaster that Gase never gets another NFL job again.

The only two Jets games I've seen this season were their win over the Cowboys, and then their dismantling by the Patriots, so I'm really not in a position to judge how good/bad they actually are.

30 I know I was a broken record…

I know I was a broken record on this in the game thread, but Darnold played pretty well in the first half; he straight up lost a big chunk of yardage to a litany of dumb penalties by his teammates, and he fell apart trying to make up for their failures and general lack of talent all by himself. That offensive line is bad, near the bottom in adjusted sack rate, and that's with Darnold doing everything he can to avoid those (say what you will about him, most of his problems center around stupidly trying to avoid sacks by flinging prayers up for grabs). I don't think there's any arguing that he's not a "bad player" right now, but his raw talent is obvious if you watch him (I'd rate him second, after Jackson, in that draft class), and his faults, while serious, at least appear to be fixable; I'd take a flier on him in a heartbeat if he's available.

Gase, on the other hand, is absolutely horrendous and is possibly the worst coach in the NFL right now. It's a small sample size, but seriously look at Tannehill: his DVOA is almost 40%, i.e. percentage points, better this year than last year, with the Titans. The Jets' adjusted sack rate went from middle of the pack last year to the basement this year, while Miami's has actually improved (from 31st to 28th, granted) despite trading away Tunsil. And of course, Darnold's performance has completely imploded, losing about 30% DVOA himself. Gase clearly has no idea how to build and/or operate an offensive line, and he's done notably worse than contemporaries with two different quarterbacks. He should be fired before next season, heck he should literally have been fired yesterday, but I have a feeling he'll stick around since he seems to have ownership's ear for whatever reason. If they do, I think it's at least 50/50 that they do indeed take another QB, so he can have "his guy."

As for Trubisky, he absolutely deserved some benefit of the doubt last year, since he clearly had taken a step forward (from terribleness into mediocrity, granted). It's his regression this year that's killed that (and cast some doubt on the Nagy regime too).

Finally, I suppose I'm a contrarian, but I wouldn't entirely give up on Rosen just yet. He got tossed into a bad situation last year and somehow wound up in a worse one this year (FitzMagic's done much better of course, but he's a long-time veteran; Rosen's still learning the ropes, which must be nearly impossible on a roster that's openly being gutted). He seems like a worthy project for a good team to stash as an emergency QB and see if they can't turn him into something in a few years.

34 ...I'd rate him second,…

...I'd rate him second, after Jackson, in that draft class...

What about Mayfield?  Sure, he's been a disappointment so far this year, but he still hasn't been nearly as bad as Darnold, and he was great the second half of last year.  Also, many of the excuses you can make for Darnold (bad offensive line, dubious coaching) apply, to a lesser extent, to Mayfield.

Going into last year's draft, I rated the QB prospects as follows: Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, Allen.  If I were re-ranking them today, I would flip-flop Rosen and Jackson, but otherwise, keep it the same.  (Obviously, Rosen has been worse than Allen so far, but if I were starting from scratch, I would still probably rather have Rosen, for the reasons you gave, i.e. he might still be "fixable").

As for Gase, I totally agree.  I thought it was a terrible decision to hire him, and it has turned out even worse than I expected.  It's just a matter of time until he gets fired, and once he does, I'd be shocked if he ever gets another head coaching job.  In fact, he may never get another job as an OC.

28 "With or without DeSean…

"With or without DeSean Jackson, the Eagles just can't get any big plays out of their wide receivers."

There was no "with" DeSean Jackson. He only played one series in that game.

29 Feedback

The biggest reason, as you have likely guessed by now, is opponent adjustments.
Which were...?

+80 for Kyler Murray.
+54 for Lamar Jackson.

Curious if he's the first QB to be last in DYAR 3 weeks in a row, that's impressive (in an awful kind of way)

Ooh, you have given me a story idea for a future column! Thank you!

Darnold really needs to pick up his garbage time passing game. Is there a more dangerous QB in the NFL than Trubisky when down by three scores?

Trubisky does in fact lead the league in fourth-quarter DYAR when down by 17 points or more. He's followed by Minshew, Winston, and Wilson. Note this is DYAR, so it combines opportunity and performance.

Was D.K. Metcalf's DYAR in the conversation for WR?

As Aaron noted, there was a bug this week where we missed the TB-SEA OT period, which means we missed Metcalf's 29-yard catch that set up the winning touchdown. In regulation, he had 16 DYAR for five catches in eight targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. Only three of those catches picked up first downs.

What DYAR would "Baltimore Runner" have had if it was one person?

42. 22 for Jackson, 13 for Edwards, 11 for Ingram, -4 for Hill.

There was no "with" DeSean Jackson. He only played one series in that game.

Right. And in that one series he produced no big plays.

31 "Right. And in that one…

In reply to by Vincent Verhei

"Right. And in that one series he produced no big plays."

He had *4* snaps! He didn't even make it through that series. He played more snaps in the Atlanta game and he didn't even have a target or catch that game.

The comment you have gives equal billing to Jackson (4 snaps, 2 targets, 13 total yards including the DPI), Agholor (79 snaps, 8 targets, 21 total yards) and Jeffery (70 snaps, 8 targets, 36 total yards), which obviously makes no sense. It's incredibly misleading for a reader who hadn't watched the game, which is the entire reason I replied.

32 Fascinating that the…

In reply to by Vincent Verhei

Fascinating that the combination of all runners on Baltimore doesn't even come within hailing distance of the top spot.  I figured there was a bunch of "near-5" guys who missed out due to how diverse the attack was, but not so.  Is this some sort of weird "punishment" because the runs were too successful?  That DVOA/DYAR would have preferred five 5 yard runs than two totalling 25?

33 The Ravens offense in Week 9…

The Ravens offense in Week 9 ranked:

7th in yards per carry

6th in success rate

5th in first down rate

9th in percentage of runs that went for no gain or a loss

Against a team that currently ranks 13th in run defense DVOA, good, but nothing special. 

The Ravens had a good day rushing in Week 9. A few other teams were better. 

 

35 I think the fact that…

I think the fact that Jackson accounting for a lot of the positive plays lowers the expected DVOA a bit, as opposed to a RB getting those numbers, since the average QB produces better results than the average RB.

But mainly I think it's because Ingram fumbled the ball, which is a major negative.