Week 9 Quick Reads

by Vincent Verhei

If you read our comments in Audibles at the Line towards the end of the Patriots-Ravens game, you'll see that we discussed Lamar Jackson's performance in the win over New England and Kyler Murray's breakout in a Thursday night loss to San Francisco, guessing they might be among the best games of the year. As it turns out, that's not the case, but they were two of the best games of the week.

At first glance, that might be surprising. Jackson only threw for 163 yards against the Patriots, and though he was efficient (completing 74 percent of his passes), he was not very explosive, with just one touchdown pass and averaging 7.1 yards per throw. He also ran for 64 yards and two scores, but that's still modest overall production. Murray's numbers are a little more eye-opening -- he completed 71 percent of his passes for an average of 10.0 yards a toss -- but his totals of 241 passing yards (and 34 more on the ground) are still pretty mundane. Even before the Monday night game between the Cowboys and Giants, neither Jackson nor Murray ranked in the top 10 in total offense for the week. How can they rank so high in our numbers if they did so little to actually move their teams down the field?

The biggest reason, as you have likely guessed by now, is opponent adjustments. Neither Jackson nor Murray were threatening any records, but they had the best passing statistics of any quarterback who has played the Patriots and/or 49ers defenses so far this year. (Through nine weeks, Baker Mayfield is the only quarterback who has played against both, because every single thing that can go badly for Cleveland always will go badly for Cleveland). Jackson is the 11th player to throw a pass against New England in 2019, but the only one to do so without throwing an interception. He is one of only three players to throw a touchdown against the Patriots. No quarterback who has faced Bill Belichick's defense has completed a higher percentage passes or taken fewer sacks, and only Matt Barkley (who played less than a quarter against the Pats in Week 4) has averaged more yards per pass.

It's a similar story for Murray against San Francisco. Only Case Keenum had a higher completion rate against the 49ers, and he did it in an ultra-conservative game plan that averaged fewer yards per completion than Murray averaged per pass. Murray's 10-yard average is two-and-a-half yards better than any what any other passer has done against Richard Sherman and company, and he is the only player to throw two touchdowns and no picks against the scarlet & gold.

This is just what great quarterback games look like when they play against great defenses. I went back and checked the top ten pass defenses in DVOA history to see which quarterbacks had the best games against them (as measured by passing DYAR). Here are the results:

You're probably familiar with most of those defenses, but just in case, let's run them down. In chronological order, you've got:

• the 1986 Bears (led by Wilber Marshall, Dan Hampton, and Mike Singletary);
• the 1988 Vikings (Keith Millard, Carl Lee, Joey Browner)
• the 1991 Eagles (Clyde Simmons, Reggie White, Jerome Brown);
• the 1991 Dome Patrol Saints (Pat Swilling, Sam Mills, Rickey Jackson);
• the 1999 and 2002 Buccaneers (Derrick Brooks, Simeon Rice, Warren Sapp);
• the 2004 Bills (Takeo Spikes, Terrence McGee, Nate Clements);
• the 2008 Steelers (James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, James Farrior);
• the 2009 Jets (David Harris, Darrelle Revis, Shaun Ellis);
• and the 2013 Legion of Boom Seahawks (Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor).

One thing is clear: if you want to have a good day against a great pass defense, you should try to find a quarterback named Tom. Or Tommy. Or Tomczak. If we ever calculate DVOA for the 1940s, I can only assume that Tommy Thompson will be a thorn in the side of the top defenses of that era.

Once you get your Tom, it is critical that he hang onto the dang ball -- these ten passers threw a total of three interceptions, and never more than one in a game. They also mitigated disaster by avoiding sacks, taking a total of 11 between them.

Mostly, though, we see that even the best games against elite pass defenses have limited volume. Only one of these quarterbacks, Steve Bono, went over 300 yards, and it took him 40-plus passes to get there. They averaged 266 yards apiece, and most were below 250. Collectively they completed 61% of their passes for 8.7 yards per throw. Those numbers look erratic and explosive in today's environment, but keep in mind we're looking at a small number of games over more than three decades of football, and standards have changed wildly over those times. And while we're keeping things in mind, let's remember that so far we only have full DVOA back to 1986 -- which means we do not yet have DYAR for the Super Bowl Shuffle Bears of 1985, or the 270-yard, three-touchdown game Dan Marino had against them. Considering that in their other 15 contests, those Bears only gave up 13 passing touchdowns and an average of 202 yards, we're confident that Marino's game would show up in an updated version of this table once our 1985 analysis is complete.

As for this season, you won't find the best games of Week 9 among the best games of 2019. Even with opponent adjustments, Jackson and Murray just didn't have the volume necessary to show up at the top of that list. The best game of year came in the first Cowboys-Giants matchup, in Week 1, when Dak Prescott went off for 400-plus yards and four scores.

Note: Numbers below do not include the TB-SEA overtime period due to a computer error.