Divisional Round Quick Reads

January 13, 2020, 11:34 am ET

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Just three weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots were ranked one-two in DVOA, and seemed destined to collide in the AFC Championship Game. Instead, neither even made it past the divisional round. Both were undone by the six-seed Tennessee Titans and the breakout star of this postseason, running back Derrick Henry.

Though he was the second running back off the boards, Henry lasted till the middle of the second round of the 2016 draft. He spent his first two seasons as a backup/change-of-pace behind DeMarco Murray, and in his third year he split carries roughly 60-40 with Dion Lewis. In Year 4 Tennessee finally leaned on him heavily, and he led the league in carries and yards, while finishing sixth in rushing DYAR. The Titans were struggling, however, until they benched quarterback Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. After a 2-4 start under Mariota, the Titans went 7-3 behind Tannehill, clinching a playoff berth with a Week 17 win against Houston. With the spotlight on Tannehill, Henry was something of a forgotten man headed into the postseason.

Two games later, Henry is forgotten no more. He carried the ball 34 times for 182 yards and a touchdown in a wild-card win in New England, then had 30 carries for 195 yards in a divisional win in Baltimore. With at least one game to go, Henry is already in the top ten for most rushing yards in a single postseason. And even if he faceplants against Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game, he has already made history: he is the first player in league history to top 180 rushing yards twice in a single postseason.

If we lower our threshold to 150 yards rushing, that has been done twice in a single postseason five times before:

1982 was an odd year. Due to a strike, each team only played nine regular-season games, and the playoffs were expanded to a 16-team tournament. As such, Washington had to play four playoff games despite finishing with a league-best 8-1 record. For his part, Riggins carried the ball 177 times, tied with Dallas' Tony Dorsett and Miami's Andra Franklin for most in the league. However, he averaged only 3.1 yards per carry, and finished 15th in rushing yards. At 33, Riggins might have looked washed up, but he was reborn in the playoffs. He had at least 25 carries and 119 yards in all four of Washington's wins, including a 38-carry, 166-yard, one-touchdown MVP performance in a 27-17 Super Bowl win over Miami. Riggins' 610 rushing yards in those four games are still the record for a single postseason. (He was not especially versatile, however; he had 136 carries in the postseason, but just one catch.) Riggins' resurgence continued; he led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in each of the next two seasons.

One year later, Washington was in the Super Bowl again, facing an L.A. Raiders team with a white-hot Marcus Allen. Allen had been quiet in his second NFL season, barely topping a thousand yards rushing and averaging less than 4 yards per carry. But he had gained 121 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries in a divisional win over Pittsburgh, then run 25 times for 154 yards in the AFC Championship Game victory over Seattle. Allen was even better against Washington, gaining 191 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. He was named MVP in L.A.'s 38-9 win.

That same 1983 season, the Denver Broncos had a rookie quarterback named John Elway. Fourteen years later, Elway had likely clinched a Hall of Fame spot, with multiple Super Bowl appearances and an MVP award. However, that elusive Lombardi Trophy had still, uh, eluded him. Enter Terrell Davis, a former sixth-round draft pick out of Georgia in his third NFL season. Davis ran for 1,750 yards that year, second only to the 2,053 yards of Barry Sanders. The Broncos went 12-4, but finished second in the AFC West behind the 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs. Denver had to win three playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, and Davis carried them there, with at least 25 carries, 101 yards, and a touchdown in victories over Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. He saved his best for last, running 30 times for 157 yards and three scores in a 31-24 win over Green Bay, taking home the game's MVP trophy.

Davis was even better the next year, leading the NFL with 2,008 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground, while averaging a league-best 5.1 yards per rush, the first man since Earl Campbell in 1980 to lead the league in all three categories in the same season. In the playoffs, Davis ran for 199 yards and two touchdowns against Miami, then 167 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, both comfortable Denver wins. That gave him four 150-yard games in the playoffs; Henry, who also had one in 2017 in addition to his two this season, is the only other player with more than two. Davis was relatively quiet in the Super Bowl, running for 102 yards and failing to score. Elway, however, threw for 336 yards and a touchdown, winning the MVP award in Denver's 34-19 win over Atlanta.

Finally, in 2016, we have Le'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers. That was Bell's fourth NFL season, and he was already a star, having just finished in the top three in yards from scrimmage for the second time. The Steelers went 11-5 and won the AFC North, but still had to play in the wild-card round. There, Bell carried the ball 29 times for 167 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-12 win over the Miami Dolphins. A week later, Bell ran 30 times for 170 yards in an 18-16 squeaker over the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. Bell's good fortune could not continue, however -- he was held to just 20 yards on six carries in the AFC Championship Game, and the Steelers fell to the Patriots 36-17.

For all of Henry's raw yardage, however, he was not very efficient this week against the Ravens. Nearly 60% of his yardage came on just three runs. Thirteen of his 30 carries gained 2 yards or less, many of those in short- or mid-length yardage situations with 5 yards or less to go for a first down.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	23/35	321	5	0	0	268	258	10	HOU
Mahomes had something of a slow start (caused in part by a bunch of drops by his receivers) and then went ballistic. From his first pass of the second quarter to his last touchdown of the game -- less than 30 minutes of football -- he went 17-of-22 for 267 yards and four touchdowns, plus three DPIs for 62 more yards. All four of his rushing plays (each of which gained a first down, for a total of 56 more yards) came during that stretch too. His rushing DYAR would be higher if he hadn't fumbled the ball out of bounds on one play.
2.	Deshaun Watson	HOU	31/51	385	2	0	4	163	147	16	KC
Watson gains 59 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. The Texans should try to upgrade their tight ends for 2020. Throwing to his tight ends in this game, Watson went 4-of-8 for all of 29 yards. None of those completions gained more than 9 yards, and only one -- a 4-yard touchdown to Darren Fells -- resulted in a first down.
3.	Russell Wilson	SEA	21/30	277	1	0	5	142	122	20	GB
Wilson did not convert any of his third-down dropbacks, going 1-of-4 for 3 yards with a sack. He did convert his one fourth-down throw, a 4-yard completion to Tyler Lockett on fourth-and-1, and also ran for three third-down conversions. He was best on throws to his right, going 13-of-17 for 152 yards and a touchdown.
4.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	16/27	243	2	0	2	122	116	7	SEA
Third-down passing: 7-of-9 for 121 yards with one sack and six conversions, including a 20-yard touchdown to Davante Adams.
5.	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	7/14	88	2	0	1	45	25	20	BAL
Tannehill only threw for four first downs in this game. Three of them came on Baltimore's half of the field, where he went 3-of-7 for 66 yards with two touchdowns and one sack.
6.	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	11/19	131	1	1	2	8	15	-6	MIN
Garoppolo only threw three deep passes against Minnesota, but he completed all of them, for gains of 16, 21, and 22 yards. Most of his action came in the first quarter, when he went 6-of-9 for 73 yards with one touchdown and two sacks. He only threw six passes in the second half.
7.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	31/58	365	1	2	4	-62	-101	40	TEN
With 58 passes, four sacks, and 20 runs, Jackson was busy on Saturday night, can't argue that. He struggled badly in scoring range, however, Inside the Tennessee 40, he went 6-of-20 for 61 yards with one touchdown, two sacks, and two interceptions. His four runs in that area of the field gained a total of only 5 yards. His 20 runs gained a total of 143 yards, but he lost a total of 13 DYAR on his two fourth-and-1 stuffs.
8.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	21/29	172	1	1	6	-74	-74	0	SF
Cousins gains 60 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. From the last two minutes of the second quarter to the sixth minute of the fourth, Cousins went 13 straight dropbacks without picking up a first down. In that stretch, he went 5-of-10 for 5 yards with three sacks and an interception. The Minnesota screen game was useless against San Francisco. Cousins completed seven of eight throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, but for a total of only 12 yards.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Tevin Coleman	SF	22	105	2	0/0	0	0	57	57	0	MIN
Thought Coleman's longest carry gained only 11 yards, eight went for first downs, while only one was stuffed. Only six of his carries went for 2 yards or less, and two of those were touchdowns.
2.	Derrick Henry	TEN	30	195	0	2/2	7	0	29	16	-5	BAL
Henry's totals include 18 passing DYAR for his one pass, a 3-yard touchdown to Corey Davis. He ran for six first downs against Baltimore, while being stuffed three times. Also, while the Ravens had a top pass defense this year, they were only 19th against the run.
3.	Raheem Mostert	SF	12	58	0	0/0	0	0	27	27	0	MIN
Mostert's longest run against Minnesota gained only 10 yards, but all 12 of them gained at least 2 yards, and three went for first downs.
4.	Travis Homer	SEA	3	13	0	2/3	27	0	19	3	15	GB
Homer's three runs: two 5-yard gains on first-and-10 and a 3-yard gain on second-and-1. Both of his receptions picked up first downs.
5.	Mark Ingram	BAL	6	22	0	1/2	9	0	0	2	-2	TEN
None of Ingram's runs gained a first down or more than 7 yards. It was not a great weekend for running backs.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Tevin Coleman	SF	22	105	2	0/0	0	0	57	57	0	MIN
2.	Raheem Mostert	SF	12	58	0	0/0	0	0	27	27	0	MIN
3.	Derrick Henry	TEN	30	195	0	2/2	7	0	29	16	-5	BAL
4.	Damien Williams	KC	12	47	2	2/6	21	1	-4	9	-13	HOU
Though Williams was stuffed four times, he ran for four first downs, with gains of 11 and 26 yards.
5.	Duke Johnson	HOU	1	11	0	5/8	23	0	-13	6	-19	KC
No, I mean it, it was not a great week for running backs.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Dalvin Cook	MIN	9	18	0	6/8	8	0	-47	-12	-34	SF
Cook gains 22 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. None of his runs gained more than 6 yards or resulted in a first down. None of his catches gained more than 4 yards or resulted in a first down, and one of them was fumbled.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Aaron Jones	GB	21	62	2	1/2	4	0	-43	-36	-8	SEA
More than a third of Jones' yardage came on his 23-yard run in the first quarter. He only had four first downs against Seattle, while being stuffed five times, twice on second-and-1.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Davante Adams	GB	8	11	160	20.0	2	90	SEA
Each of Adams' catches gained at least 10 yards and a first down, including a pair of third-down conversions. He also drew an 18-yard DPI.
2.	Travis Kelce	KC	10	12	134	13.4	3	88	HOU
Eight of Kelce's 10 catches produced first downs, and he had two other first downs on DPIs of 15 and 26 yards.
3.	Tyler Lockett	SEA	9	10	136	15.1	1	72	GB
Eight of Lockett's catches produced first downs, including a fourth-down conversion. The other was a 6-yard gain on first-and-10.
4.	Sammy Watkins	KC	2	2	76	38.0	0	37	HOU
Watkins' totals include 37 DYAR receiving; -13 DYAR passing for his one dropback, which resulted in a sack; and 13 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 14 yards. His two catches: 48-yard gain on second-and-10 in the third quarter, 28-yard gain on first-and-10 in the fourth.
5.	Will Fuller	HOU	5	8	89	17.8	0	30	KC
Each of Fuller's catches produced a first down, including a pair of third-down conversions. He gained a sixth first down on a 12-yard DPI.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Miles Boykin	BAL	3	7	26	8.7	0	-25	TEN
Only one of Boykin's catches resulted in a first down, a 13-yard gain on third-and-4 that made up half his yardage on the day.

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Comments

31 comments, Last at 17 Jan 2020, 4:40pm

#1 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 13, 2020 - 12:00pm

1. All QBs go ballistic. It's inherent to the position. (Even for the Bears!)
2. DYAR would have you believe Tannehill was a more valuable rusher than Henry. Oh DYAR, why are you so broken?

#2 by RickD // Jan 13, 2020 - 1:07pm

IIRC, rushing DYAR for a QB is scaled differently than rushing DYAR for a RB.

#4 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 13, 2020 - 1:32pm

I know it is. Same with receiving yardage for RBs vs TEs vs WRs.

I'm not sure how they calibrate receiving yardage for QBs, though.

#5 by RickD // Jan 13, 2020 - 1:45pm

then why....oh never mind. People can read your sequence of posts and draw their own conclusions.

#7 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 13, 2020 - 2:06pm

Basically, I understand that DYAR scales positions differently. However, I find the outputs of that calibration to produce so much noise that I question the basis for that decision. DYAR on a positional basis seems to generate nonsense in comparison to DYAR at a team level.

#8 by doktarr // Jan 13, 2020 - 2:08pm

Additionally, Tannehill was in fact very efficient as a rusher. In 4 non-kneeling attempts he picked up 3 first downs, and the fourth was a 9 yard run on 1st down. Henry was incredible but did get stuffed multiple times and that hurts, especially after opponent adjustments.

#10 by Spanosian Magn… // Jan 13, 2020 - 3:39pm

This is where I think I have a fundamental issue with how DVOA/DYAR works, especially as applied to individual players. Henry had 30 carries! Against defenses designed specifically to stop him! Of course he got stuffed a few times. Tannehill, like most QBs, only takes a running opportunity when he has a very good chance at a significant gain and/or 1st down. It's like saying the LOOGY is better than the starting pitcher because he allowed fewer home runs.

EDIT: To be clear, my point was about opportunities to fail (since stuffs, turnovers, etc. carry big penalties), so to avoid comparing QB-RB, take Mostert. There is just no way 12 carries for 58 yards and 3 1sts is more valuable than Henry's performance (almost twice as valuable, by DYAR). There just isn't. And no amount of opponent adjustments could make that true either. (It's worth noting, too, that while MIN and BAL are 9th and 19th respectively in rush defense, they're only about 5 percentage points apart, and both on the "good" side of the ledger; it's not like one was dominant and one was a cupcake.)

#19 by Will Allen // Jan 14, 2020 - 1:09pm

Yeah, DYAR for rushing attempts most definitely needs to put into context; it really misrepresents reality to conclude that the player with greater DYAR has been more valuable than the one with lesser DYAR.

#21 by bravehoptoad // Jan 14, 2020 - 2:39pm

Right; what it literally means is the the player with greater DYAR has been more valuable above a generic replacement than the one with lesser DYAR. That's what the AR means. The stat you seem to want is DY, and it's non-adjusted sibling, Y, a.k.a, yards.

#24 by Will Allen // Jan 14, 2020 - 5:14pm

No, yards alone definitely doesn't fully capture context, either.

#23 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 14, 2020 - 3:11pm

I suppose technically it's the play-integral of efficiency.

Whether or not that is equivalent to value is to you.

#9 by Not Jimmy // Jan 13, 2020 - 2:36pm

I get it! I get jokes!

#3 by Sixknots // Jan 13, 2020 - 1:15pm

Henry's numbers in the tables must be mixed up.

#6 by RickD // Jan 13, 2020 - 1:47pm

"Henry's totals include 18 passing DYAR for his one pass, a 3-yard touchdown to Corey Davis."

#14 by MC2 // Jan 13, 2020 - 11:27pm

That part just demonstrates the folly of using different baselines for different positions. Does anyone who watched that game actually agree with DYAR that Henry's three-yard TD pass was more valuable than his 30 carries for 195 yards?

#18 by Eddo // Jan 14, 2020 - 9:26am

Maybe? This is a situation where I'd love to see the DYAR (or really, YAR) given to each play.

Regarding the 3-yard TD pass, I think it's easy to see that it has a "value" of more than 3 yards, given it was also a touchdown. Looking at Henry's 30 carries, 16 of them gained 3 yards or less. Only 2 of those 16 could be argued to be successful: a 3 yard gain on first and goal from the 6 in the third quarter, and a 1 yard gain on second and 1 in the fourth quarter.

So already, you're looking at a situation where 14 of his 30 carries were negative, if we go by success rate. (Note: EPA totally disagrees with this; per P-F-R's EPA, only 6 of his 30 carries had negative expected points.)

Henry's total yardage is also a little inflated by three runs of 66, 27, and 23 yards. All three obviously gained first downs, but we also know that DYAR generally considers the first down to be the biggest value driver there, not the excess yards. So the 66 yarder in particular has a lot of yards with diminishing returns. (EPA is a mixed bag on those; it considers the 66 yarder to be worth 5.83 EPA, trailing only the 7-EPA touchdown pass among his 33 plays on Saturday. But the 23 yarder (2.26) and 27 yarder (1.99) are in the middle of the pack among his play set. EPA seems to put tons of value on rushes on the opponent's side of the field; for example, a 1 yard run on second and 3 from the Baltimore 16 yard line had 4.05 EPA and a 1 yard run on second and 2 from the Baltimore 2 yard line had an EPA of 5.17.)

#20 by Will Allen // Jan 14, 2020 - 1:17pm

The issue with DYAR on long runs (greater than 40 yards) is that they are wholly considered nonpredictive, and this is simply at odds with reality, with some running backs. To put it in historical context, DYAR discounts the value of Barry Sanders' performance excessively, compared to Emmit Smith.

#22 by bravehoptoad // Jan 14, 2020 - 2:57pm

What about this thought experiment?

What if, at the 30- or 40-yard point of Derrick Henry's 66-yard run, you magically replaced him with a replacement-level running back--DeAndre Washington, say, or Royce Freeman. At that point in the run, how many yards does Derrick Henry add over those guys? They all have similar 40 times, 4.5-ish. Wouldn't they all be expected to make roughly 66 yards at that point? At that point in a run, how many yards can you actually add over a replacement?

Maybe those backs with 4.2 40s are adding value at at that point, but most backs, even very good backs, won't be. Where you add value is in the yards before that.

#26 by MC2 // Jan 14, 2020 - 5:57pm

I see what you're saying, but I don't think you're fully appreciating the value of backs who are better able to get into those open-field situations. Let me give an example: Imagine two running plays, A and B. Both plays are blocked well enough that basically any RB could gain about 10 yards. At that point, the back faces two defenders, followed by nothing but 40 yards of "green grass" all the way to the end zone. The difference is Running Back A gets tackled immediately by one of the defenders, gaining only the 10 yards that was blocked for, while Running Back B jukes one defender, stiff-arms the other, and sprints into the end zone for a 50-yard TD. If DYAR heavily discounts anything past 10 yards (or even past 20 yards), these two runs will appear to be much more similar than they really were.

#27 by Eddo // Jan 14, 2020 - 6:11pm

Interesting. That in theory could be testable, something like, are backs that get 30 yard runs more likely to get 60 yard runs than backs who don't get as many 30 yard runs.

#25 by MC2 // Jan 14, 2020 - 5:37pm

Interesting points. Personally, I think EPA is more in line with my own perception of what happened. This is probably because EPA is designed to measure how much each play contributed to victory in this one game, while DVOA/DYAR attempt to measure not only how valuable a particular play was, but also how likely it is to be repeated in future games.

I think for DVOA that makes sense, since DVOA is primarily employed in the long-term, to explain which teams have been better over the course of the entire season, and whether they are likely to maintain that level of play. Therefore, it makes sense to discount plays that may have had a huge effect on one game, but are too rare and/or too random to be very predictive.

DYAR, on the other hand, is used primarily for measuring past performance, often for a single game (to quantify the best performers of each week, or in lists of the greatest performances ever). Given that, I think discounting huge plays, simply because they happen to be of a rare and/or random nature, is a mistake. Just because a monster game is unlikely to ever be replicated doesn't make it any less impressive. For example, Flipper Anderson never came close to replicating his 336-yard game, and Timmy Smith did almost nothing apart from his 204-yard game in the Super Bowl, but I don't think that makes those performances, in and of themselves, any less impressive. So, I think discounting "fluky" plays should count as a feature for DVOA, but as a bug for DYAR.

#28 by Dan // Jan 15, 2020 - 4:43am

You must be making a mistake somewhere with those numbers - there is no way that a 1 yard run on second & 3 is worth 4 points.

Checking PFR... their table doesn't show Expected Points Added. It shows the offense's Expected Points Before the play (EPB) and their Expected Points After the play (EPA). You need to subtract those numbers to get Expected Points Added.

#29 by Eddo // Jan 15, 2020 - 9:50am

Oh, wow, thanks. In that case, "EPA" is a very confusing column heading.

#11 by mrh // Jan 13, 2020 - 3:45pm

According to the play-by-play at pfr, Mahomes "fumbled" out of bounds; I assume this reflects the official scoring. To my eye, he dropped the ball a little too quickly when he went out, but it wasn't a "fumble" since he was already OOB. I wouldn't count this as a fumble for DYAR calculations.

#12 by Mountain Time … // Jan 13, 2020 - 4:21pm

So by DYAR, Josh Allen had a better game last week (0 DYAR) than Lamar Jackson this week (-62).

I know the stat really means "Lamar Jackson and his teammates", but it's still shocking.

#17 by Eddo // Jan 14, 2020 - 9:09am

I think it really comes down to turnovers. Jackson had 2.5 (2 INT plus 1 fumble) and Allen had 1 (0 INT plus 2 fumbles).

#13 by alljack // Jan 13, 2020 - 11:09pm

Green Bay TE Graham: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 3 first downs, 45 yards = DYAR less than 30
Kansas City TE Watkins: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 2 first downs, 76 yards = DYAR of 50

#15 by mrh // Jan 14, 2020 - 12:17am

Watkins (I'm sure you know he's a WR despite the typo) also had a 14-yard run for a 1st down, so his 2 catches plus 1 run = 90 yards and 3 1st downs. Compared to Graham, the first downs cancel out, so Watkins produced twice the yardage on the same number of touches. Seems like it should be about twice the VOA, then apply the defense-adjustments, 50 DYAR to <30 DYAR seems to be in the ballpark.

#16 by Eddo // Jan 14, 2020 - 9:03am

So a receiver that had nearly twice the yardage also has nearly twice the DYAR. What's the problem, exactly?

#30 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 17, 2020 - 4:42am

Hey everyone. Sorry for taking so long to answer questions. It has been a hell of a week.

2. DYAR would have you believe Tannehill was a more valuable rusher than Henry. Oh DYAR, why are you so broken?

Henry had 30 carries! Against defenses designed specifically to stop him! Of course he got stuffed a few times.

take Mostert. There is just no way 12 carries for 58 yards and 3 1sts is more valuable than Henry's performance (almost twice as valuable, by DYAR). There just isn't.

We knew there were going to be a lot of questions about Henry. We can't list every play for every player, but here's the DYAR breakdown for Henry's five best runs:

1. 66-yard gain on third-and-1: 19.0 DYAR
2. 27-yard gain on second-and-10: 13.1 DYAR
3. 23-yard gain on first-and-10: 10.0 DYAR
4. 9-yard gain on second-and-7: 6.2 DYAR
5. 5-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 7: 3.5 DYAR
TOTAL: 51.9 DYAR

And his five worst runs:

1. 4-yard loss on second-and-10: -7.4 DYAR
2. No gain on second-and-4: -5.8 DYAR
3. 1-yard gain on first-and-10: -5.0 DYAR
4. 1-yard gain on second-and-2: -4.8 DYAR
5. No gain on third-and-5: -4.1 DYAR
TOTAL: -27.1 DYAR.

Now, let's do the same thing for Mostert, just for one example. His best:

1. 10-yard gain on second-and-7: 7.6 DYAR
2. 8-yard gain on second-and-9: 5.6 DYAR
3. 7-yard gain on second-and-4: 5.5 DYAR
4. 4-yard gain on second-and-6: 4.4 DYAR
5. 5-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 7: 3.0 DYAR
TOTAL: 26.3 DYAR

And his worst:

1. 3-yard gain on first-and-10: -1.1 DYAR
2. 2-yard gain on first-and-10: -0.8 DYAR
3. 2-yard gain on second-and-4: -0.6 DYAR
4. 4-yard gain on first-and-10: -0.2 DYAR
5. 3-yard gain on second-and-10: 0.1 DYAR
TOTAL: -2.7 DYAR.

So Henry's best runs were way better than Mostert's best runs, but his worst runs were worse than Mostert's worst, largely because of failure to convert in shorter-yardage scenarios where he was expected to pick up first downs. Still, taking each player's best and worst runs, Henry comes out way ahead. The difference is in the carries that aren't listed here -- in addition to these 10 runs, Henry had 20 other runs that averaged 3.4 yards apiece. That's a lot of short runs, not worth much negative DYAR one-by-one, but over 20 carries they add up. Mostert's only runs not listed here were 5- and 6-yard gains on first-and-10 -- two positive-DYAR plays.

As for the notion that Henry had so many short runs only because he was playing with a big lead: he had 17 carries in this game when Tennessee was up by 14 points or more, and averaged only 3.6 yards on those plays -- and even that average is boosted by one 23-yard gain. The average gain for a running back with a lead of 14 points or more this season was 4.1 yards per carry.

You are of course welcome to disagree with any of this methodology. Just giving more insight into how DYAR works.

Green Bay TE Graham: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 3 first downs, 45 yards = DYAR less than 30
Kansas City TE Watkins: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 2 first downs, 76 yards = DYAR of 50

Watkins (I'm sure you know he's a WR despite the typo) also had a 14-yard run for a 1st down, so his 2 catches plus 1 run = 90 yards and 3 1st downs.

Forgot to make note of Watkins' rushing DYAR in his comment. I have re-written that for clarification.

#31 by MC2 // Jan 17, 2020 - 4:40pm

Thanks for the info, Vince. I really appreciate your willingness to give such in-depth answers to questions/complaints.

The thing that strikes me from the above info is the DYAR awarded for Henry's two worst carries: He loses 7.4 DYAR for a 4-yard loss on 2nd-and-10, and he loses 5.8 DYAR for a no gain on 2nd-and-4. I'm surprised at how similar these are to one another. I would have thought the 4-yard loss on 2nd-and-10, which sets up 3rd-and-14, would be penalized much more heavily than the no gain on 2nd-and-4, which sets up 3rd-and-4. An average QB should be able to convert 3rd-and-4 a high percentage of the time, while even an excellent QB will only be able to convert 3rd-and-14 at a very low percentage.

In other words, the 4-yard-loss on 2nd-and-10 seems like a real drive killer, while the no gain on 2nd-and-4 seems like only a minor setback. Yet DYAR treats them very similarly.