Quick Reads
The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 11 Quick Reads

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL fans who stuck around for the Sunday night game this week got a treat as the Kansas City Chiefs traveled to Las Vegas and came away with a 35-31 win over the Raiders. There were 10 scoring plays in the game, and all of them either tied the game or put one team ahead. In the end it was Patrick Mahomes' 22-yard touchdown to Travis Kelce in the final minute that sealed the victory.

The game-winner was Mahomes' second touchdown of the day; he also had a 3-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill in the first quarter. Mahomes finished the day with 348 yards, completing 34 of 45 passes with no sacks and only one interception. Not to be outdone, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr threw three touchdowns of his own -- one each to Nelson Agholor, Darren Waller, and Jason Witten -- on his way to a 23-of-31 day, finishing with 275 yards. Like Mahomes, he was not sacked while throwing one interception.

The big-picture result of the game is that Kansas City has all but cinched the AFC West title. They now have a three-game lead over the Raiders (9-1 to 6-4) with six games to play. Our playoff odds have the Chiefs winning the division more than 97% of the time. The small-picture result is that Carr and Mahomes finish as our top two quarterbacks of the week. Carr comes out ahead largely because his interception (thrown in desperation after Kansas City went ahead for the last time) wasn't nearly as damaging as Mahomes' (thrown on first down in the red zone late in the first half).

This had us wondering how often opposing quarterbacks from the same game ended up taking the gold and the silver on the Quick Reads medal podium. We have looked at quarterback shootouts in years past as measured by each player's DYAR, but not by their DYAR rankings in a given week. And as it turns out, that gives us mostly an entirely new list.

We went back to the 2010 season looking for weeks when quarterbacks from the same game finished first and second in our rankings (not including the playoffs, when it's a lot more likely, for obvious reasons). We found 11 other such instances, though Carr and Mahomes are the first to do it since 2018. In chronological order, we have:

Peyton Manning vs. David Garrard, Week 4, 2010
Like this week's Chiefs-Raiders game, this was a back-and-forth affair, with neither team ever leading by more than seven points. In the last eight minutes alone:

  • the Colts tied the score at 21-all on a 2-yard Joseph Addai touchdown run;
  • Garrard put the Jaguars back on top 28-21 on an 8-yard touchdown pass to Maurice Jones-Drew
  • the Colts tied the game again on Manning's 1-yard touchdown pass to Austin Collie with 48 seconds to go;
  • and Josh Scobee won the game for Jacksonville with a 59-yard field goal at the gun.

Manning finished first in Quick Reads, going 33-of-46 for 352 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Garrard (17-22-163-2-0) was second.

Philip Rivers vs. Vince Young, Week 8, 2010
Like all good shootouts, this one started with a blocked punt for a safety as the Titans took a 2-0 lead. That lead grew to 19-7 in the second quarter, but then the Chargers went on a 20-0 run to go up 27-19. Young's 71-yard touchdown pass to Nate Washington could have tied the game, but Tennessee's ensuing two-point conversion was no good. The Chargers got an insurance touchdown (Rivers to Darren Sproles for 13 yards) before Young was knocked out of the game; Kerry Collins had two drives down by eight points, but one ended in a punt and the other on an incompletion on fourth-and-2 in the red zone. Rivers finished 27-36-305-2-1 with a sack; Young, 10-21-253-2-0 with no sacks. Young only ran for 3 yards; he ranked so high only because he averaged better than 25 yards per completion.

Tony Romo vs. Eli Manning, Week 14, 2011
This is our second straight shootout to start with a safety, as Romo (21-31-321-4-0-3) was sacked in the end zone by Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants went ahead 15-14 in the second quarter before a 20-7 Dallas run put the Cowboys on top 34-22 with less than six minutes to go. If it had been five minutes to go, they would have won, but the Giants scored two more touchdowns -- -- including an 8-yard score from Manning (27-47-400-2-1-0) to Jake Ballard -- to steal a 37-34 victory. That broke a four-game losing streak for the Giants and may have saved their season -- they lost just once more, squeaking into the playoffs as NFC East champs at 9-7 and going on to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Brandon Weeden vs. Andy Dalton, Week 2, 2012
This is not a typo. For one glorious Sunday, the two greatest passers in the National By-God Football League were Cleveland's Brandon Weeden and Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. This was even stranger than it sounds because the week prior, in his professional debut, Weeden (26-37-322-2-0-2) had finished last in Quick Reads. His Browns never led in this game, however -- Adam Jones' punt return touchdown put the Bengals up 7-0 and Dalton (24-31-318-3-1-6) never gave Cleveland much of a chance to come back. In the end, the Bengals won 34-27.

Matt Schaub vs. Chad Henne, Week 11, 2012
This is not a typo either. Man, 2012 was a weird year. Even weirder, Henne (16-33-354-4-0-1) didn't even start this game -- Blaine Gabbert did, but he left after getting sacked and fumbling the ball away on Jacksonville's first drive. In hindsight, that probably meant an upgrade at quarterback for the Jaguars. This game was tied at 7-7, then 14-14, then 17-17 before Henne's 81-yard touchdown to Justin Blackmon put Jacksonville up 34-20 in the fourth quarter. Houston sent the game to overtime, however, as Schaub (43-55-527-5-2-2) threw a pair of touchdowns to Garrett Graham. The teams traded field goals in the extra frame before Schaub's 48-yard touchdown to Andre Johnson gave the Texans a 43-37 win. Perhaps the weirdest fact of all of this is that Henne, Gabbert, and Schaub are all still in the league eight years later.

Peyton Manning vs. Tony Romo, Week 5, 2013
You probably remember this one -- it's one of eight games ever where the teams combined to score at least 99 points. The Cowboys led 48-41 late in the fourth quarter, but the Broncos got a Knowshon Moreno touchdown and then a 28-yard Matt Prater field goal at the gun to win 51-48. Manning (32-42-414-4-1-0) finished the year with 55 touchdown passes and an appearance in the Super Bowl; Romo (25-36-505-5-1-4) went just 8-7 in his penultimate season as Dallas' starting quarterback.

Marcus Mariota vs. Drew Brees, Week 9, 2015
I hope you like reading about Brees (28-39-387-3-1-4), because he's going to show up quite a few times between now and the end of this column. In this case, his three touchdowns put the Saints up 7-0, 14-3, and 28-20 in this game. Unfortunately for him, Mariota (28-39-371-4-0-0) threw plenty of scores of his own. Notably, his 8-yard pass to Justin Hunter tied the score at 28-all, and his 5-yarder to Anthony Fasano gave the Titans a 34-28 win in overtime. It was one of only three wins for Tennessee all season; the Saints ended the year at 7-9 in one of the many seasons when they paired Brees with one of the worst defenses in the league.

Alex Smith vs. Deshaun Watson, Week 5, 2017
There were big numbers in this game, but the outcome was never really in doubt. The Chiefs, undefeated at the time, jumped out to a 23-7 halftime lead, an advantage that grew to 39-20 when Tyreek Hill scored an 82-yard touchdown on a punt return midway through the fourth quarter. Smith (29-37-324-3-0-1) spent most of his day as a point guard, protecting the lead while completing passes to 10 different players. Watson (16-31-261-5-0-3) got a lot of production in garbage time -- two of his touchdowns came after that Hill punt return, including a 1-yard score to DeAndre Hopkins on the last play of the game that still left Houston trailing 42-34.

Alex Smith vs. Josh McCown, Week 13, 2017
I was not surprised to see Drew Brees' name more than once in these results, but multiple appearances by Alex Smith (19-33-366-4-0-2) caught me off guard. So did a singular appearance by McCown (26-36-331-1-0-0). But it was McCown who won the day, rallying the Jets from deficits of 14-0, 17-14, and 31-30 to win 38-31. Both quarterbacks also made major contributions on the ground -- Smith's lone carry gained 70 yards, while McCown ran for a pair of scores. The Jets never won again, losing four in a row to finish at 5-11; the Chiefs won four in a row to finish 10-6 before losing to Marcus Mariota and the Titans in the wild-card round. Really, this game was the beginning of the end for both quarterbacks with their respective teams -- Smith was traded to Washington after the season to make way for Patrick Mahomes, while the Jets drafted Sam Darnold in 2018.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Drew Brees, Week 1, 2018
Speaking of journeyman quarterbacks who used to start for the Jets… Fitzpatrick (21-28-417-4-0-0) stepped in for a suspended Jameis Winston and blitzed the stunned Saints, who were coming off an 11-5 season and a playoff loss to the Vikings in the Minneapolis Miracle game. The Bucs won this one comfortably, leading 48-24 early in the fourth before Brees (37-45-439-3-0-1) and the Saints added some touchdowns in garbage time. Fitzpatrick spent the next four years swapping spots in the starting lineup with Winston, and then with Josh Rosen, and now with Tua Tagovailoa. New Orleans proceeded to win 10 games in a row and reached the NFC Championship Game, where they fell to the Rams in another painful postseason loss.

Matt Ryan vs. Drew Brees, Week 3, 2018
So, yeah, that start to the season for the 2018 Saints sure was exciting. There were 13 scoring plays in this game; a dozen of them either tied the game or put one team ahead. In the end, it was Brees (39-49-396-3-0-1) making the difference with his legs as well as his arm -- his 7-yard touchdown run sent the game into overtime, and his 1-yard touchdown run was the game-winner in a 43-37 final. Ryan (26-35-374-5-0-3) saw his output wasted by failure on defense -- something that has happened all too often to both sides of this classic quarterback rivalry.

 


 

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Derek Carr LV
23/31
275
3
1
0
186
190
-5
KC
This is my 10th year writing Quick Reads, and in that decade I don't recall ever seeing a start like Carr's. When I opened our passing data spreadsheet, I thought I had made a sorting error, bringing all of his good plays to the top of the page. But no, the data was accurate. Carr completed each of his first 11 passes, but that's not terribly uncommon, especially not for quarterbacks who throw a lot of short passes as Carr has done for most of his career. Usually, though, some of those completions will be failed plays that lose yardage or come up short of the sticks on third down. Not for Carr, though. Each of his first 10 dropbacks resulted in a completion for a first down, for a total of 160 yards. If anyone has ever picked up a first down on 10 consecutive dropbacks before, I'm not aware of it. I mean, 10 first downs is a lot. That's more than Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, or Jacksonville had this week, let alone in 10 straight plays. Across the league, NFL passing plays have picked up first downs 35% of the time in 2020. At that rate, we would give an average quarterback a 0.003% chance of picking up 10 first downs in a row -- about a one-in-36,000 chance. Before this week, the longest first-down streak any quarterback had in 2020 was seven, done by Baker Mayfield in Week 7 and Kyler Murray in Week 9. There's more we could say here but we have 29 other quarterbacks to discuss.
2.
Patrick Mahomes KC
34/45
348
2
1
0
160
160
0
LV
They weren't in a row, but Mahomes threw for 22 first downs, most in the league. He was also the NFL's best passer on throws down the middle, going 12-of-13 for 152 yards and a touchdown.
3.
Deshaun Watson HOU
28/37
344
2
0
0
150
144
6
NE
Watson loses 46 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was best on throws to his left, going 15-of-17 for 201 yards and a touchdown.
4.
Jared Goff LAR
39/51
376
3
2
0
141
151
-10
TB
5.
Aaron Rodgers GB
27/36
311
3
1
1
126
133
-7
IND
Rodgers had the league's best DYAR on throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, completing all eight of his passes for 56 yards and two touchdowns. He also had the best DYAR in the second quarter, when he went 8-of-9 for 82 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 51-yard DPI.
6.
Kirk Cousins MIN
22/30
318
3
0
2
101
99
2
DAL
Cousins was the league's best passer on throws to the outside (19-of-25 for 297 yards and three touchdowns) and from under center (14-of-17 for 255 yards with three touchdowns, two sacks, and one fumble).
7.
Philip Rivers IND
24/36
288
4
1
1
93
93
0
GB
Rivers' average dropback came with 11.2 yards to go for a first down, most for any quarterback this week. The parade of holding penalties late in the game didn't help, but that's not the only reason -- Rivers had four dropbacks with 20-plus yards to go in the first quarter too.
8.
Justin Herbert LAC
37/49
366
3
0
3
89
81
9
NYJ
We've got a lot to say about Herbert's game. On the downside, he lost a league-high 48 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He also led the league with 13 failed completions. On the upside, he had the league's best DYAR on third downs (9-of-11 for 107 yards and seven conversions, including three touchdowns, plus a sack and an 8-yard DPI). Finally, per Pro Football Reference, this was Herbert's fifth game this season with three or more touchdown passes. That's the most by a rookie quarterback since the merger with the AFL in 1970, surpassing the mark of four set by Peyton Manning, Marcus Mariota, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, and Baker Mayfield.
9.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
22/31
259
2
1
2
79
62
16
BAL
Tannehill was fantastic for three-quarters of this game and miserably bad the rest of the time. He was first in the league in total DYAR in the first, third, and fourth quarters (including overtime), but dead-last in the second quarter. He failed to throw for a first down in those 15 minutes, going 2-of-8 for 13 yards with one sack, one fumble, and one interception.
10.
Russell Wilson SEA
23/28
197
2
0
3
76
98
-22
ARI
Wilson's rushing numbers: 32 yards on nine carries ... including a pair of aborted snaps. He led the league in DYAR on passes to his right, going 9-of-11 for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
11.
Joe Burrow CIN
22/34
203
1
0
0
73
74
0
WAS
Burrow's game (and season) ended early in the third quarter. He converted each of his first two third downs on completions of 18 and 13 yards, but failed to convert one after that, going 2-of-6 for 7 yards.
12.
Cam Newton NE
26/40
365
1
0
2
63
64
-1
HOU
Newton loses 42 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the league's best passer on deep balls, going 6-of-7 for 174 yards and a touchdown.
13.
Drew Lock DEN
18/30
270
0
1
0
63
54
9
MIA
Lock was the anti-Derek Carr -- his first six passes resulted in five incompletions and one interception. Broncos receivers did a lot to help Lock out -- his average completion gained 7.8 yards after the catch, most in the league. Tim Patrick had two plays that gained 20-plus yards after the catch; Noah Fant had one.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
14.
Taysom Hill NO
18/23
233
0
0
3
46
23
23
ATL
Hill's rushing numbers: 10 carries for 51 yards and two touchdowns. That makes up for his poor passing numbers in the red zone (2-of-5 for 11 yards). Virtually all of his good throws came to his left or down the middle -- to the right, he went 4-of-6 for only 24 yards.
15.
Tom Brady TB
26/48
216
2
2
1
35
35
0
LAR
16.
Kyler Murray ARI
30/42
269
2
0
3
33
42
-9
SEA
Murray had the league's best DYAR on throws to running backs. He threw nine passes to Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds, completing eight of them for 67 yards and a touchdown.
17.
Andy Dalton DAL
22/32
203
3
1
1
32
27
5
MIN
Dalton was worst in the league on throws down the middle. He threw four passes in that direction, completing as many to his own team (one, for a gain of 6 on second-and-7) as he did to the Vikings.
18.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
32/46
267
2
1
0
15
15
0
JAX
Roethlisberger hit a terrible cold streak in the middle of this game. His last pass of the first half was intercepted, and then he failed to pick up a first down on his first 13 dropbacks of the second half, going 9-of-13 for only 34 yards.
19.
Baker Mayfield CLE
12/21
204
0
0
3
-10
5
-14
PHI
A poor day on third/fourth downs: 3-of-8 for 33 yards with only two conversions and one sack.
20.
Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA
12/18
117
0
1
0
-16
-13
-3
DEN
Fitzpatrick came into this game with the Dolphins down 20-10 in the fourth quarter. In limited time, he had the league's best DYAR without a huddle, going 6-of-8 for 63 yards.
21.
Lamar Jackson BAL
17/29
186
1
1
1
-18
-9
-8
TEN
Red zone passing: 2-of-6 for 14 yards with no first downs, let alone touchdowns.
22.
Tua Tagovailoa MIA
11/20
83
1
0
6
-28
-28
0
DEN
Only 26% of Tagovailoa's dropbacks were successful, the lowest rate of any starter this week.
23.
Joe Flacco NYJ
15/30
205
2
1
1
-31
-28
-3
LAC
Flacco had the league's worst DYAR in the first quarter, which is notable because he only threw two passes in the first quarter: a pick-six and an incompletion on third-and-15. However, he had the league's best DYAR in the third quarter, when he went 6-of-9 for 116 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 more yards on a pair of DPIs. His average pass traveled 12.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, most of any qualifier this week.
24.
Alex Smith WAS
17/25
166
1
1
2
-37
-37
0
CIN
Smith and the Football Team only converted one third-down throw ... and they were lucky to get that one because J.D. McKissic fumbled on the end of that play, though Washington was able to recover. On third downs, Smith went 3-of-6 for 21 yards with a sack.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
25.
P.J. Walker CAR
24/34
258
1
2
1
-62
-45
-17
DET
Walker was the league's worst passer in the red zone, where he went 3-of-5 for 29 yards with more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one). He was also last in DYAR on passes from under center, going 2-of-5 for 12 yards for an interception.
26.
Matthew Stafford DET
18/33
178
0
0
5
-77
-74
-3
CAR
Stafford's average pass traveled a league-low 5.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He did not throw a single pass in the red zone; on Carolina's side of the 50, he went 2-of-6 for 6 yards with two sacks.
27.
Matt Ryan ATL
19/37
232
0
2
8
-103
-103
0
NO
Ryan gains 51 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He had the league's worst DYAR in several categories, including third/fourth downs (5-of-11 for 75 yards with four conversions, one Hail Mary interception, one other interception, and a half-dozen sacks), throws to his left (6-of-14 for 65 yards with an interception), and without a huddle (1-of-6 for 25 yards and an interception). His average completion gained only 2.7 yards after the catch, also the worst in the league.
28.
Ryan Finley CIN
3/10
30
0
1
4
-109
-120
11
WAS
Finley came into this game with Cincinnati down 14-9 in the third quarter. He proceeded to produce the week's worst third quarter, going 1-of-4 for 5 yards with two sacks. He only threw for one first down, and by that time he had already been sacked three times. All of his dropbacks came in Bengals territory. He had five dropbacks outside his own 27-yard line: two incompletions, two sacks, and an interception.
29.
Carson Wentz PHI
21/35
235
2
2
5
-123
-116
-6
CLE
If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. Well, we do have something nice to say about Wentz: he was the week's best passer on throws to tight ends, going 7-of-8 for 125 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 33-yard DPI. And now that we have said something nice, we are free and clear to say all sorts of mean things. For example, he was worst in DYAR on passes to wide receivers (8-of-18 for 69 yards with an interception) and to running backs (6-of-8 for 41 yards with a pick-six). He was also worst on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (6-of-11 for 42 yards with one touchdown and one pick-six).
30.
Jake Luton JAX
16/37
151
0
4
2
-210
-210
0
PIT
Luton gains a league-high 61-DYAR due to opponent adjustments ... not that it did him much good. He only threw one pass in the red zone; it was intercepted. He was last in the league on passes to tight ends (4-of-9 for 45 yards with three interceptions), and on deep balls (2-of-11 for 34 yards with three interceptions).

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Chase Edmonds ARI
2
13
0
4/4
36
1
43
8
36
SEA
You won't often see a running back at the top of our tables with less than 50 yards from scrimmage, but Edmonds had a tremendous success rate. Only one of his six carries and targets -- a 2-yard run on first-and-10 -- was not a successful play. His other run was an 11-yard gain on first-and-10. His four catches: a 6-yard gain on first-and-10; an 8-yard gain on second-and-7; a 19-yard gain on second-and-21; and a touchdown on third-and-goal from the 3.
2.
Aaron Jones GB
10
41
1
4/4
30
0
42
34
8
IND
Jones gains 11 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was stuffed just once while running for three first downs, the longest a gain of 15. Three of his catches were successful plays, including a 14-yard gain on second-and-14.
3.
Derrick Henry TEN
27
133
1
1/2
-1
0
39
47
-7
BAL
Henry gains 21 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was stuffed four times while running for a half-dozen first downs. His best play, obviously, was his 29-yard game-winning touchdown in overtime -- that play was worth 20 DYAR by itself.
4.
Carlos Hyde SEA
14
79
1
2/3
16
0
38
26
13
ARI
Hyde was stuffed just once while running for five first downs, including three gains of 15 yards or more. Both of his catches resulted in first downs too.
5.
J.K. Dobbins BAL
15
70
1
2/2
15
0
37
24
13
TEN
Dobbins' longest run gained only 11 yards, but he picked up five first downs, and all of his carries gained at least 1 yard. His best catch was a 6-yard gain on third-and-5.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Derrick Henry TEN
27
133
1
1/2
-1
0
39
47
-7
BAL
2.
Aaron Jones GB
10
41
1
4/4
30
0
42
34
8
IND
3.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC
14
69
2
1/2
8
0
28
29
-2
LV
Edwards-Helaire ran for six first downs, the longest a 14-yard touchdown on second-and-10, while being stuffed just once.
4.
Carlos Hyde SEA
14
79
1
2/3
16
0
38
26
13
ARI
5.
J.K. Dobbins BAL
15
70
1
2/2
15
0
37
24
13
TEN

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Duke Johnson HOU
10
15
0
3/5
20
0
-48
-40
-8
NE
Johnson loses 15 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. The good news is that he was stuffed just once. The bad news is that his longest run gained only 3 yards (yes), and none of his 10 carries gained a first down or counted as a successful play. None of his catches produced first downs either, but two of them did count as successful plays. So, you know, that's cool.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Duke Johnson HOU
10
15
0
3/5
20
0
-48
-40
-8
NE

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Damiere Byrd NE
6
7
132
22.0
1
72
HOU
Byrd's totals include 8 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 11 yards. All of his catches produced first downs, including three third-down conversions and a 42-yard touchdown.
2.
Travis Kelce KC
8
10
127
15.9
1
63
LV
Kelce gains 13 DYAR due to opponent adjustments -- the Raiders are second in DVOA in coverage against tight ends. Seven of his catches produced first downs; the other was an 8-yard gain on first-and-10. He also picked up an 18-yard DPI to convert a first-and-15.
3.
Nelson Agholor LV
6
9
88
14.7
1
47
KC
Four of Agholor's catches produced first downs, the best a 20-yard gain on third-and-5. He also picked up a 22-yard DPI to convert a third-and-10.
4.
Darren Waller LV
7
7
88
12.6
1
47
KC
The first six passes Waller caught all produced first downs, including three third-down conversions. His last catch was a 7-yard gain on second-and-8.
5.
Adam Thielen MIN
8
11
123
15.4
2
44
DAL
Thielen picked up first downs on six of his eight catches, including two third-down conversions and a 51-yard gain.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Tee Higgins CIN
3
10
26
8.7
0
-47
WAS
Higgins had six targets from Joe Burrow, including all three of his completions: a 6-yard gain on second-and-4, a 5-yard loss on first-and-10, and a 25-yard gain on second-and-3. He had four targets from Ryan Finley, all incomplete.

Comments

60 comments, Last at 25 Nov 2020, 8:08pm

1 Weedon vs Dalton

Man, the good old days, like Unitas vs Starr.  Who could possibly forget that game?

3 Where did Robert Woods and…

Where did Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp land on he receivers list this week? Seems like their stat lines might have had them pretty high. 

4 " Broncos receivers did a…

" Broncos receivers did a lot to help Lock out -- his average completion gained 7.8 yards after the catch, most in the league. Tim Patrick had two plays that gained 20-plus yards after the catch; Noah Fant had one."

You are giving lock/Patrick credit for the last completion?  I wouldn't, as it wasn't a play designed to gain yards but instead to run our the clock (4 seconds left 4th down, 9 man protection and lock heaved it so time would expire).  Anyways if kneeldowns are removed, I'd think that would be

5 You won't often see a…

You won't often see a running back at the top of our tables with less than 50 yards from scrimmage

It seems like we see that quite often. DYAR skews so heavily towards passing that the list is usually topped by a fungible slotback.

13 Ahh, sure enough. Austin…

Ahh, sure enough.

Austin Ekeler had a similar game in week 10 last year. This week for whatever reason had really low top-RB numbers.

Congratulations to Chase Edmonds for surpassing his expected 5 rushing yards and 0 receiving yards.

7 The shootout list is a…

The shootout list is a strange combo of HoFers and high-variance journeymen.

I leave it to the board to decide which Eli was.

30 Eli-a definite HOFer

Eli is a definite HOFer IMO. How can you tell the history of the NFL and not talk about the only 5 QB's in that history (so far at least) that Reached the Pinnacle of Their Profession MULTIPLE TIMES. The true pinnacle is when a QB plays good enough in his team's BIGGEST GAME of the YEAR to not only help his team to win the game but also to be named MVP and does it more than once. Brady, Montana, Bradshaw, Starr, and Eli Manning we salute you.

33 The facts you have presented…

The facts you have presented are not the definition of a Hall of famer as I understand them. But parsing it further, Eli did not play Tom Brady in a tennis match for the Wimbledon Championship. His team played the Patriots of which he was a part of the reason they won. I could point out that losing sb qbs have scored more points than the Giants did, but because they lost, they won't sniff the MVP. The point isn't to decry Eli a fraud, but to point out the broader context here.

 

Furthermore, if Eli is so HoF worthy, why the heck does the rest of his body of work include a lot of mediocrity to flat out awful play? Surely those games that cost his team a playoff spot mattered no? 

 

To me, a HoF doesn't have one or two moments we can look to and sing his praises for. Otherwise a lot of players are Hall of Fame worthy. Instead, we should look at the whole body of work, acknowledge that winning the SB says a lot more about the team and the coach than it does who the QB was. Tom Brady is a Hall of Famer even if he had gone 0-9 in the SB. No one in their right guy mind would argue the reverse for Eli.

34 Each QB has to be judged on his own merits

Each QB has to be judged on his own merits when it comes to the HOF. In Eli's case, reaching the true pinnacle of his profession multiple times and being 1 of only 5 in history to accomplish that warrants HOF-again-IMO. Every QB starts every season with that exact goal in mind-to eventually be 1 of those multiple winners and Eli is now 1 of them.

36 Bart Starr

For that matter-how about Starr-same as Bradshaw. Yes, they both won 4 League Championships, but I would wager that it was the 2 Championship Game MVP's that really carried them into the HOF.

37 "Each QB has to be judged on…

"Each QB has to be judged on his own merits when it comes to the HOF."

 

Imagine if we played this same game with other positions. David Tyree and Mario Manningham would be hall of famers. So too would Desmond Howard. The purpose of having a hall of fame standard is so that its uniform in how we assess players. If the rules are contingent on whatever whim we want to have - then almost anyone can be a hall of famer. 

Eli has 2 sb rings and 2 mvps. He has been recognized already for those accomplishments. The HOF is about identifying great, supreme players over their era. At no point was Eli ever one of those players.

 

 

42 You listed a lot of people…

In reply to by Bob Smith

You listed a lot of people. Do you feel Eli Manning was as good as most of them? For example I don't regard Matt Ryan as a Hall of famer. Philip Rivers is not going to get into the Hall of Fame and I feel he's better than Eli Manning.

44 Was Eli "better"

I like to ask the question: if your team had a championship game (Conf. OR League) coming up, which QB would you rather have on your team? Based on each guys Resume I would take Eli over Rivers and Ryan. And that is the main goal of every QB in the league-to play in and help their team win a championship game or 2.

45 Eli was better

In reply to by Bob Smith

Was Eli better in a majority of their playoff games-YES. how about in a majority of their championship games-YES. How about in a majority of the Biggest games in each guys career-YES. How about in a majority of the games where their teammates were counting on them to be better than ever-YES for Eli.

46 Great, so you would take…

In reply to by Bob Smith

Great, so you would take Flacco over Dan Marino? You'd probably also take Eli over Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees right?

I'm sorry to disappoint peopl who view the playoffs = clutchness = true value. There is no evidence that clutch exists. If it did, you would be left with the conclusions I listed above.

I don't quite understand why all of the context that went into those SB wins mean nothing to you. It's like you think a herculean play from David Tyree or a terrific performance from the giants d linr are somehow a function of Eli's greatness. 

 

And if that wasn't enough, he scored 22 and 17 points in the Sb. Those are what makes Eli a HOF?

 

47 You might find this interesting

Marino had 3 championship game years ('84,'85, and '92) where he won 4 and lost 3. When I say "he won" that  always is short for-"he played good enough to help his team win". He had zero road games and 2 of his losses were Conf. Champ. games AT HOME. Dan had 15 TD's BUT 10 INT's and 2 fumbles and a Rating of only 77.6

48 Eli on the other hand

Eli had 2 championship game years ('07 and '11) where he won 8 and lost 0. He had 5 away games and 2 of his wins were Conf. Champ. games ON THE ROAD. Eli also had 15 TD's BUT ONLY 2 INT's and a Rating of 100. 

49 Oh by the way

Statistically speaking, all 3 of Marino's teams were better than both of Eli's teams-statistically speaking using Official NFL Rankings.

50 Why should any of that matter

In reply to by Bob Smith

Here is what Dan Marino thought about the importance of winning a S.B. "I'd trade every Record we broke to be Super Bowl Champs" Dan said that sometime after his 1 and only S.B. game. That is how important winning a S.B. is to an NFL QB.

51 Bottom line

Was Eli better than Marino in his championship game years-YES by a mile. Did it lead to much more playoff success for Eli-YES by a mile.

55 Your Mission Statement

Before I answer that even though I already did a comment or so ago, tell me your Mission Statement for your NFL franchise QB. Mine is this: play good enough to help my team win multiple championships. I'm guessing yours might be: play very good in the Reg. Season and set a lot of Passer Records and it's ok if you are not very good in the playoffs.

56 Go back and read #47 and #48

You already read those 2 posts and you ask me who was better when it mattered most-when their teammates were counting on them more than ever-when championships were on the line ???

58 2nd Bottom line

In reply to by Bob Smith

Here is my bottom line on Marino and Eli-If I had a championship game coming up I would certainly take Eli based on their Resumes. I am OUT.

59 Ok rather than ask leading…

Ok rather than ask leading questions I will just plainly state things. 

As I mentioned earlier, the playoffs are not predictive. They are small sample sizes and snapshots of time where randomness plays a bigger part in the outcome than you care to admit. They are also very context dependent, something you seem to keep brushing past. Did Eli also sack Tom Brady, force a safety, or will the ball onto Tyree's Helmet? How about Asante dropping an Int, was that also more Eli Manning magic? Perhaps if Marino had had the same sort of fortune go his way, we wouldn't be entertaining the ludicrous proposition that Eli is a better QB than Dan Marino. Its remarkable how much we microwave down his career into a binary success failure standard when we go down the rings rabbit hole. 

And again, Why did this Eli level mysticism seem to fade when it came time to winning games to get into the playoffs? What prevented his clutchness from saving the giants from collapses in all of the intervening years he didn't win the SB? Or was that divine clutchness reserved only for playoff games?

I would be fine with your playoff criteria if it ever showed up in the data. It does not. It also leads to patently nonsensical positions. Eli, by virtue of two rings and two SB MVPs, is better than Rodgers, Brees, Steve Young, etc etc. Basically guys who have multiple MVPs, All Pros, and represent the very best qbs of all time. Welp, they have fewer rings so...I guess Eli is better right? You are left to conclude you would rather have Eli Manning.  And of course, Trent Dilfer has a ring and so he too is preferred over Marino; you HAVE to take Dilfer because he has a ring. And of course, Flacco as well. 

I encourage you to revisit your whole logical thought process. When the logic leads you down to strange conclusions, you really have to think hard about whether your whole system makes any sense at all. 

 

38 "How can you tell the…

"How can you tell the history of the NFL"

...without talking about Ryan Leaf or Herschel Walker or Bo Jackson or Brian Bosworth or William "The Refrigerator" Perry?

40 No comparison

Are you trying to say that the history that would be told concerning the guys you named would in any way be as important as the only 5 QB's to ever win multiple S.B. MVP awards ? NO COMPARISON IMO.

43 I'm saying that the "tell…

In reply to by Bob Smith

I'm saying that the "tell the history" argument isn't too useful.  There are plenty of players who are relevant to the history of the NFL (technically, ALL players are part of the history) who aren't worthy of being in the Hall Of Fame.

 

Oh, Doug Williams is another who is very important to the history of the NFL, though his on-field performance does not merit HOF induction. 

52 This is a QB driven league

Because of the importance of 1 position in the S.B. era history will pay extra attention to important QB records, stats, and facts and none is more important than playing good enough in the biggest game in their career to be named the MVP of that biggest game. That is the best a QB can do in any 1 year. That would fulfill the Mission Statement of any owner, head coach, teammate, or fan, IMO.

53 You're right about Williams

Williams will be part of that history certainly, but he is 1 of those QB  S.B. MVP winners that is still not in the HOF-I agree. But again, he is not a multiple winner like Eli. 

10 It's surprising that Brady…

It's surprising that Brady has positive DYAR with 4.5 YPA and 2 INTs as opponent adjustment shouldn't be that big.  How much of that is DPI?

24 Unfortunately

DYAR doesn’t account for refs/league that desperately want a KC-TB Super Bowl. Brady was dogshit last night and didn’t merit positive DYAR.

11 I was expecting to find that…

I was expecting to find that Monday night Rams-Chiefs game from 2018 on the quarterback two-fer list, but I see that in fact neither Mahomes nor Goff finished in the top 2 that week, ending up behind both Brees and Luck.  I guess that's what a bunch of fumbles and interceptions will do for you.

17 Double-pass

The official statistical guidelines in this very specific situation (double forward pass with the second throw behind the line of scrimmage and with the defense declining the penalty) are to ignore the first pass, so it goes down as an ordinary 8-yard completion to Evans.

19 counts as passs compeltion…

counts as passs compeltion to m. evans. imagien if you were in tight fantasy matchup and that catch by evans decided game? soemobody would be mad.

some leagues count receptions as 0.5 popints, others count them as 1 point. my league does 0.5. Evans owner did not use him, which was actually me, so it did nto matter, but somewhere someone may have lost a game 123.78 to 122.85 due to that counting as good catch with the yardage by evans. 

21 Eli/Drew

Really surprised that Eli Manning-Drew Brees game (was it 52-48?) didn't make it on this list. Guess the defensive adjustments knocked one of them down past second.

Also, how much do the numbers change if you assign that late fumble to Carlos Hyde instead of Russell Wilson?

23 I remain dumbfounded by…

I remain dumbfounded by Carson Wentz, despite Pat's insistence that it is mostly(all?) down to playcalling. These were the same(roughly) playcallers that catapulted Wentz to a near MVP campaign. Sure, that might have been an outlier year but hes been ok to pretty good in the past. Last year the times I saw him, I liked what I saw.  This season he's been in the tank for an awfully long period of time. It's starting to remind me of Flacco, who pre SB was a good enough qb but post SB became unplayable. 

I won't claim to know for sure what is causing what; I only saw one game of Wentz's this year and he was awful in it, but seeing a guy I thought was a top 10 QB play like a rookie 6th rounder is just so hard to wrap my mind around. 

25 Flacco's best (regular)…

Flacco's best (regular) season by far according to DYAR/DVOA was actually 2014 (although he had previously nose-dived in 2013). Gary Kubiak was the OC in Baltimore that year, and Flacco seemed to excel in that scheme. It was then in 2015 that he suffered a torn ACL, and was never much use again (although again, his 2018 was passable until he was replaced by a rookie Lamar Jackson). 

What looked like a very average career trajectory in his first 3 years has certainly taken some strange twists since.

27 The playcaller has been the…

The playcaller has been the same: Doug Pederson. However the near MVP campaign featured Frank Reich as OC and John DeFilippo as QB Coach. Last year's OC, Mike Groh was fired. Rather than hire a new OC, or promote someone to OC, they hired Marty Morhinweig and Rick Scangarello(fired mid-season in 2019 as OC of the Broncos because his offense was last in everything) to work with Press Taylor(previously the QB coach, and brother of an NFL head coach) and Duce Staley(RB coach and Asst. Head Coach for the last 73 years) on the offensive scheme and game plans. I suppose the plan was that this offensive coaching  'Team of Rivals' would challenge each other and make everyone better and the Eagles would reap the benefits of the best of all offensive worlds. Instead, it appears to have become like any other corporate committee, the output is the most vanilla, basic, common denominator crap designed not to upset anyone, especially rival defensive coordinators. Anyway, the offense has become incredibly predictable and boring yet somehow incredibly confusing to the starting QB. 

26 Derek Carr

Watching the game, I thought Carr had started 10/10, but I didn't notice they were all first downs. I'm surprised he was #1 this week, though, because there so many dropped passes. He didn't have many bad throws.

29 Feedback

Where did Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp land on he receivers list this week? Seems like their stat lines might have had them pretty high. 

Do me a favor and ask me again next week. We had an Internet snafu Monday night and I only got the results for Brady and Goff, and that no WRs or RBs made the top five.

You are giving lock/Patrick credit for the last completion?  I wouldn't, as it wasn't a play designed to gain yards but instead to run our the clock (4 seconds left 4th down, 9 man protection and lock heaved it so time would expire).  Anyways if kneeldowns are removed, I'd think that would be

A kneeldown is a play where the offense is specifically trying to lose yards. (We removed the Chargers' 28-yard loss on an intentional safety in the fourth quarter for that very reason.) Patrck ran for 22 yards after the catch, which strongly indicates that he was trying to gain yards. Just one of those ultra-specific end-of-game plays that DYAR and DVOA aren't designed to measure.

The official statistical guidelines in this very specific situation (double forward pass with the second throw behind the line of scrimmage and with the defense declining the penalty) are to ignore the first pass, so it goes down as an ordinary 8-yard completion to Evans.

Thank you for answering this question.

DYAR credits receivers for DPI, too, right?

Yes.

Really surprised that Eli Manning-Drew Brees game (was it 52-48?) didn't make it on this list. Guess the defensive adjustments knocked one of them down past second.

I'm assuming you mean this game, a 52-49 win for the Saints in 2015:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201511010nor.htm

Brees was first that week, but Manning was sixth. He lost 56 DYAR due to opponent adjustments -- that Saints defense was something like the second- or third-worst in DVOA history. The Giants also converted just one of eight third-down plays.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2015/week-8-quick-reads

Also, how much do the numbers change if you assign that late fumble to Carlos Hyde instead of Russell Wilson?

That play cost Wilson 22 DYAR.