Quick Reads
The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 7 Quick Reads

Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

When the NFL shuffled its Week 7 card after COVID complications put the Sunday night contest between the Buccaneers and Raiders in jeopardy, the folks at NBC were probably all too happy to see they were getting the Seahawks-Cardinals game instead. No, losing Tom Brady would not be good news for the network's ratings, but you could hardly ask for a better replacement than Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray trading highlight-reel plays all night. And the quarterbacks delivered fireworks, combining for 748 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns through the air with 151 more yards and another touchdown on the ground. They also made plenty of mistakes though -- 31 incompletions, four interceptions, two sacks, and a fumble. As such, neither was our top quarterback of the week.

Each team had a brighter offensive star, however. Seattle's leading player is obvious. Tyler Lockett made an immediate impact, beating Patrick Peterson and making a tremendous one-handed catch for a 34-yard gain on the very first play from scrimmage. That was not Lockett's last opportunity to make a splash, and he put most of them to good use. He finished with 20 targets, turning them into 15 catches for 200 yards and three touchdowns, all of which are the highest total for any player in any game this year. (San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle also had 15 catches in Week 4 against Philadelphia; three other players have caught three touchdowns in a game, including Lockett himself in Week 3 against Dallas.) It's no surprise, then, that Lockett's total of 82 DYAR is the best total for a wide receiver not only this week, but in any game this season.

Chase Edmonds? Now there's a surprise. He's not even a starter in Arizona's offense, coming off the bench in five of the team's first six games and failing to clear 100 yards from scrimmage in any of them. He came off the bench in their seventh game too; he didn't register a carry or a target until the last minute of the first half, and finished with just a dozen total opportunities. What he did with his limited chances, though, was special. He turned five carries into 58 yards on the ground while catching all seven of his targets for 87 more yards. That's 145 yards from scrimmage, an average 12.1 yards per play. And those numbers aren't inflated by a handful of big plays either; he was cruelly efficient, with four first downs on the ground and five more through the air. Only two players -- Lockett and Green Bay's Davante Adams -- produced more first downs as a runner or receiver this week. That's why Edmonds' game totaled 92 DYAR, the best game for a running back this year, even though he failed to score and his 145 yards from scrimmage don't crack the top 10 in that category this season.

How rare is it to see one team's running back and another's wideout post such outstanding results in the same game? We pored through our record books and found five prior RB-WR duels where a running back finished with at least 75 total DYAR and a wideout on the other team had at least 80:

Week 2, 1989: Eric Dickerson's NFL career began with some stellar years for the Los Angeles Rams -- his 2,105 rushing yards in 1984 remain a single-season record -- but he forced a trade to the Indianapolis Colts in the middle of the 1987 season in a bitter contract dispute. He didn't get a chance to face his old team until two years later. No doubt eager for revenge, he shredded L.A. for 116 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, adding seven catches for 45 yards. That works out to 80 total DYAR. Unfortunately for Dickerson, the Rams still had plenty of offensive firepower -- in particular, Henry Ellard. Then in his sixth season and fresh off a 1988 campaign where he led the NFL with 1,414 receiving yards, Ellard produced 130 DYAR, catching 12 of 15 targets for 230 yards and three touchdowns. Two of those scores turned a 17-10 Colts lead into a 24-17 Rams advantage. Greg Bell -- one of the players L.A. acquired in the Dickerson trade -- added an insurance score in the fourth quarter and the Rams won 31-17.

Week 12, 2002: Younger readers may not be aware that Priest Holmes was a fantasy megastar in the early part of this century. The Kansas City running back topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage three years in a row, leading the NFL in rushing yards in 2001 and in rushing touchdowns in 2002 and 2003. His late-November game against Seattle right in the middle of that run was one of the best of his career … and by total DYAR, it's the best running back game we have ever analyzed. Holmes ran 23 times for 197 yards and two touchdowns and also caught each of his seven targets for 110 yards and another score. That's 307 yards from scrimmage on 30 plays, which adds up to 152 total DYAR (101 rushing, 52 receiving -- and no, that does not add up to 152 because of a rounding error). It wasn't enough, however, because Matt Hasselbeck threw for four touchdowns, including a 17-yarder to Koren Robinson in the third quarter. That was Robinson's only touchdown on the day, but the second-year wideout made plenty of other catches -- eight of them, to be precise, in 11 targets, for 168 yards. Including 4 DYAR rushing for his one carry, a gain of 6, Robinson had 82 total DYAR. That wasn't enough to top Holmes, but Seattle still defeated the Chiefs 39-32.

Week 14, 2008: We turn now to 2008, back when Pandemic was merely a board game and Quarantine was just a horror movie. Fans that December were treated to a Monday night shootout between NFC South playoff contenders as the Panthers and Bucs came into the game with matching 9-3 records. The Bucs were led by Antonio Bryant, a talented but troubled player who had already started for Dallas, Cleveland, and San Francisco, then sat out for a year, before joining Tampa Bay that season, all by the age of 27. He scorched Carolina for nine catches, 200 yards, and a pair of touchdowns (including this one-handed snag) on only 10 targets. That's 103 DYAR for him. While he was making plays through the air, however, Carolina was rumbling over the Tampa Bay defense on the ground, running for 299 yards (they would have been over 300 if not for a pair of Jake Delhomme kneeldowns). Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both rushed for over 100 yards, but it's Williams who qualifies for this list. His 19 carries for 186 yards and a touchdown totaled 90 DYAR on the ground; he also had 3 DYAR receiving for his one catch, a gain of 6. Carolina won 38-23 and finished 12-4 and division champions, but fell to the Cardinals 33-13 in the playoffs in Delhomme's notorious five-interception game. That's still better than what happened to the Bucs -- they lost this game and then three more in a row, missing the playoffs at 9-7 and costing Jon Gruden his job.

Week 17, 2009: The Broncos came into this game at 8-7 with faint playoff hopes remaining, hopes that grew dimmer when star wideout Brandon Marshall was deactivated following a dispute with head coach Josh McDaniels. Without his top weapon, Denver quarterback Kyle Orton threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns by Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs, for their part, had already lost a dozen games and were going nowhere, so they just gave the ball to Jamaal Charles over and over again before calling it a year. Charles finished with 25 carries, which doesn't sound like a ton until you realize they only snapped the ball 60 times. Charles ran for 259 yards and two touchdowns, also gaining 3 yards on his one catch, and finished with 98 total DYAR. In a desperate situation, Orton threw 56 passes, 19 of them to Jabar Gaffney, a 29-year-old who had joined the Broncos that season after stints in Houston and New England. Gaffney caught 14 of those passes for 214 yards; he added 51 more yards on a pair of DPIs, good for 88 DYAR. Gaffney played 158 games in the NFL; this was one of five times he topped 100 yards receiving.

Week 5, 2019: We close with last year's Packers-Cowboys game. Green Bay won by a final margin of 34-24, but the game wasn't that close -- an Aaron Jones touchdown put Green Bay up 31-3 late in the third quarter. Dallas then engaged in some significant stat-padding, but never had the ball with a chance to tie the game. That Jones touchdown was the fourth of his 19 carries that crossed the goal line. He ran for 107 yards, adding 75 more on seven catches, and finished with 96 total DYAR. With Green Bay comfortably ahead for most of the day, it might have been easy to overlook the contributions of Amari Cooper, but those contributions were significant; he caught 11 of 14 passes for 226 yards, scoring a 53-yard touchdown that gave Dallas a glimmer of hope in the fourth quarter.

 


 

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Tom Brady TB
33/43
369
4
0
0
213
210
3
LV
Brady led the league in DYAR inside the opponents' 40-yard line, completing 15 of 17 passes for 188 yards and four touchdowns. He was also first in DYAR on throws to wide receivers (19-of-22 for 238 yards and three touchdowns, plust two DPIs for 15 more yards) and from under center (10-of-11 for 125 yards with one touchdown).
2.
Baker Mayfield CLE
22/27
297
5
1
0
192
192
0
CIN
Mayfield was the league's worst quarterback in the first quarter, going 0-for-5 with an interception. He was first by a mile in DYAR after that. He was also the DYAR leader in the red zone (completing all five of his passes for 44 yards and four touchdowns) and on throws to tight ends (6-of-8 for 76 yards and three touchdowns to Harrison Bryant and David Njoku).
3.
Drew Brees NO
29/35
287
2
0
1
152
150
2
CAR
Brees led all players in DYAR on short passes. He threw 31 passes (!) to receivers within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, completing 26 of them for 228 yards and a touchdown. In a related note, his average pass only traveled 4.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, shortest of any starter this week.
4.
Kyler Murray ARI
34/44
360
3
1
0
131
135
-5
SEA
Murray was one of five quarterbacks this week with a league-high eight failed completions. As you may have guessed from our main essay, he was first in DYAR on passes to his running backs (including two passes to Kenyan Drake, one of which was completed for 7 yards). He was also first in DYAR out of the shotgun (he only threw one pass from under center; it was incomplete) and without a huddle (8-of-10 for 111 yards and three touchdowns, plus an 8-yard DPI). If you're wondering why his rushing DYAR isn't higher, he had four runs resulting in no gain or a loss, including a fumble and failures to convert on third-and-1 and third-and-2.
5.
Aaron Rodgers GB
23/34
283
4
0
0
130
130
0
HOU
Rodgers was the league's best passer on third/fourth downs, completing seven of 11 passes for 125 yards. Each of those completions picked up a new set of downs, including a pair of scores.
6.
Teddy Bridgewater CAR
23/28
254
2
0
1
114
114
0
NO
There was absolutely no middle ground to Carolina's passing game on Sunday. Bridgewater threw a half-dozen deep balls; only 12 quarterbacks threw more. And he threw 22 passes to receivers within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage; only 11 quarterbacks threw more. But he threw zero passes to anyone between those two distances; 27 players threw more, including Jarrett Stidham (three) and Ben DiNucci (one).
7.
Justin Herbert LAC
27/43
347
3
0
1
110
76
34
JAX
Herbert lost a league-high 48 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His rushing numbers: five carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. He led the league in third-quarter DYAR, going 8-of-11 for 157 yards with two touchdowns and one sack.
8.
Matt Ryan ATL
31/42
338
1
0
2
103
103
0
DET
Ryan was absurdly effective when throwing passes with any kind of depth to them. On throws that traveled 7 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage, he went 16-of-17 for 237 yards (only one of those completions did not result in a first down) plus a 15-yard DPI. However, he was woefully inept at point-blank range. He threw seven passes to receivers within 1 yard of the line of scrimmage and only completed two of them -- one for a gain of 9, one for a loss of 2.
9.
Deshaun Watson HOU
29/39
309
2
0
3
98
101
-3
GB
Houston was losing on every single one of Watson's pass attempts; they were down by two scores for 34 of them. Yet Watson only three three deep balls all day. He completed all three of them for a total of 70 yards.
10.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
20/25
277
0
2
1
95
95
0
NE
For the second week in a row, Garoppolo led the league in DYAR on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (8-of-9 for 103 yards). And also for the second week in a row, he was the only quarterback whose average completion gained more than 9 yards after the catch.
11.
Matthew Stafford DET
25/32
340
1
0
2
84
83
1
ATL
Stafford was one of five quarterbacks this week with a league-high eight failed completions. But he still led the league in DYAR on deep balls -- his first deep pass was incomplete, but the other seven were all completed for a total of 177 yards.
12.
Joe Burrow CIN
35/47
406
3
1
4
81
79
2
CLE
Burrow struggled to finish drives, but he led the league in DYAR within his own 40, where he went 20-of-23 for 232 yards with one sack.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Derek Carr LV
24/36
284
2
1
3
64
50
13
TB
Carr gains 68 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, by far the most in the league. Drew Lock (36) was the only other player who gained even half as much. Carr also led all players in DYAR in the first quarter, when he completed seven of eight passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.
14.
Josh Allen BUF
30/43
307
0
0
2
60
38
22
NYJ
Allen's rushing numbers: nine carries for 63 yards. Allen was this week's worst passer in the red zone. He threw four passes inside the Jets 20, completing one (a 3-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 17) and taking two sacks, fumbling on one.
15.
Jared Goff LAR
24/33
219
2
0
1
46
52
-6
CHI
16.
Patrick Mahomes KC
15/23
200
1
0
3
46
46
0
DEN
Maybe it was the snow, but Mahomes went through about as bad a cold spell as you'll ever see from him in the middle of this game. In roughly 30 minutes of game time from the first quarter to the third, he went 12 straight dropbacks without a first down. That includes six incompletions, three completions (for 24 yards), and three sacks (which lost 25 yards). Yes, that's a dozen straight plays where Mahomes, in total, went backwards.
17.
Russell Wilson SEA
33/50
388
3
3
2
46
20
26
ARI
Wilson's rushing numbers: six carries for 84 yards. He was the worst passer this week on third/fourth downs (5-of-11, 60 yards, four conversions, one touchdown, one sack, two interceptions) among starting quarterbacks. He was also worst in DYAR on throws to his running backs (6-of-9, 33 yards, one interception).
18.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
19/30
220
2
0
2
38
36
2
PIT
Many teams would benefit from passing more on first downs. The Titans, apparently, are not one of those teams. Tannehill had nine dropbacks on first down. The results: four completions for a combined total of 20 yards; two incompletions; two sacks that lost 10 yards; and an intentional grounding foul that lost 10 yards. Total yardage gained: zero.
19.
Carson Wentz PHI
26/43
359
2
1
3
36
28
8
NYG
Of all people, Carson Wentz led the league in DYAR on first down, going 12-of-17 for 226 yards and two touchdowns plus a 9-yard DPI with two sacks and an intentional grounding.
20.
Kyle Allen WAS
15/25
194
2
0
2
24
31
-7
DAL
Allen threw a league-high four passes this week that were listed with no intended receiver.
21.
Gardner Minshew JAX
14/27
173
2
0
5
-14
-15
1
LAC
Minshew only threw for seven first downs, but he made them count -- they averaged 19.7 yards apiece. Only Ryan Tannehill (21.8) averaged more yards on his throws that gained first downs.
22.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
32/49
268
2
3
0
-29
-29
0
TEN
Roethlisberger was one of five quarterbacks this week with a league-high eight failed completions. On a related note, he was last in the league in DYAR on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, completing eight of 12 passes for 37 yards with an interception.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Jarrett Stidham NE
6/10
64
0
1
1
-54
-52
-3
SF
Talk about a contrast in styles -- while Cam Newton (spoiler!) threw the deepest passes of the week, the average pass thrown by Stidham, his replacement, only traveled 3.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, shortest of any qualifier. All of Stidham's passes came with New England trailing by 27 points in the fourth quarter.
24.
Daniel Jones NYG
20/30
187
2
1
3
-59
-78
19
PHI
Jones was one of five quarterbacks this week with a league-high eight failed completions. He was the league's worst passer on throws to tight ends. He threw 10 passes to tight ends (all to Evan Engram). Six were completed for 46 yards. One resulted in a DPI for 2 more yards. Two were incomplete. One was intercepted.
25.
Nick Foles CHI
28/40
262
0
2
4
-68
-68
0
LAR
26.
Drew Lock DEN
25/40
254
0
2
3
-74
-74
0
KC
Lock was one of five quarterbacks this week with a league-high eight failed completions. That's partly because he spent a lot of the afternoon tring to bail the Broncos out of long-yardage scenarios. He had 11 dropbacks with more than 10 yards to go for a first down. He completed eight passes on those plays for a total of 75 yards, but only one of those completions picked up a first down or counted as a successful play. He also had an intentional grounding and a pick-six on those plays.
27.
Cam Newton NE
9/15
98
0
3
1
-87
-94
7
SF
At least Newton went down gunning -- his average pass traveled 11.3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, deepest of any qualifier this week. But he was last in the league in DYAR on throws to wide receivers (5-of-10 for 74 yards with three interceptions) and on passes from under center (3-of-5 for 28 yards with an interception).
28.
Andy Dalton DAL
9/19
75
0
1
3
-124
-122
-2
WAS
Dalton didn't cross midfield often, and when he did, it went badly, as he completed two of six passes for 12 yards with an interception. He was knocked out of the game midway through the third quarter; his replacement, Ben DiNucci, did not get enough dropbacks to qualify for our tables. If you're curious, DiNucci had -47 DYAR passing (2-of-3 for 39 yards with three sacks and a fumble) and -17 DYAR rushing (a fumbled snap that resulted in a loss of 9 yards). There are 11 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 100 passes this year without fumbling twice. Neither Matthew Stafford nor Aaron Rodgers have fumbled at all.
29.
Sam Darnold NYJ
12/23
120
0
2
6
-187
-187
0
BUF
Midway through the second quarter, Darnold threw a pass to Breshad Perriman that resulted in a 13-yard DPI. It was the last first down the Jets passing game produced all day. From that point forward, Darnold went 2-of-12 for 13 yards with four sacks that lost 17 yards, two interceptions, and a fumble. He was also last on DYAR out of the shotgun (9-of-18 for 80 yards; one DPI for 15 yards; three sacks; two interceptions; one fumble) and without a huddle (0-for-3 with an interception).

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Chase Edmonds ARI
5
58
0
7/7
87
0
92
31
61
SEA
All of Edmonds' carries gained at least 2 yards. Four of them gained first downs; the other was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. His longest run gained 32 yards. Five of his catches gained at least 10 yards and a first down, the longest a gain of 21. His others were 3- and 6-yard gains on first-and-10.
2.
Jeff Wilson SF
17
112
3
2/2
8
0
49
55
-7
NE
Wilson loses 15 DYAR for playing the New England defense. He was stuffed just once while running for six first downs, including three gains of 10 yards or more, the longest a gain of 17.
3.
James Robinson JAX
22
119
1
4/6
18
1
45
38
7
LAC
Robinson was stuffed three times while running for six first downs, including four gains of 10 yards or more, the longest a gain of 22.
4.
Alvin Kamara NO
14
83
0
8/8
65
0
39
7
31
CAR
Kamara loses 14 DYAR for playing Carolina. He was stuffed just once while running for four first downs, including gains of 18 and 32. Four of his catches also produced first downs, including three third-down conversions.
5.
Damien Harris NE
10
58
0
1/1
12
0
36
28
8
SF
Harris gains 10 DYAR for facing the 49ers. he only ran for two first downs and his longest run gained only 10 yards, but all of his runs gained 2 yards or more.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jeff Wilson SF
17
112
3
2/2
8
0
49
55
-7
NE
2.
Derrick Henry TEN
20
75
1
2/2
-3
0
24
42
-18
PIT
If you've been reading Quick Reads regularly, you know I've mentioned that opponent adjustments this year are not as strong as they were in 2019. Well, funny story ... Henry gains FORTY-TWO DYAR for plaing the Steelers. And these adjustments aren't even at full strength yet! Henry is the first player this year to run for four first downs in a single game against Pittsburgh; the rest of the league's running backs have only 10. Henry was also stuffed five times; the Steelers have stuffed other running backs 27 times. Against the Steelers, just getting back to the line of scrimmage is a victory in itself, and nobody has won that battle more often this year than Derrick Henry. (Well, as a runner -- both of Henry's catches lost yardage.)
3.
James Robinson JAX
22
119
1
4/6
18
1
45
38
7
LAC
4.
Chase Edmonds ARI
5
58
0
7/7
87
0
92
31
61
SEA
5.
Damien Harris NE
10
58
0
1/1
12
0
36
28
8
SF

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Melvin Gordon DEN
17
53
1
2/4
12
0
-57
-25
-32
KC
Gordon is here because of a pair of fumbles: one on a botched flea-flicker that goes down in our numbers as a loss of 15 yards (Gordon officially ran for 68 yards in this game), one on a 10-yard catch on third-and-18. Both fumbles were recovered by Kansas City. Those two plays were worth -39 DYAR, so Gordon otherwise had a perfectly adequate day. Gordon also loses 27 DYAR for playing the Chiefs.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Todd Gurley ATL
23
63
2
2/3
19
0
-40
-46
6
DET
OK, get this: DVOA and DYAR are not designed to handle the minute details of end-of-game strategy, so they do not look at Gurley's touchdown late in the fourth quarter and see how it opened the door for Detroit to get the ball back and win. Instead, they see a go-ahead touchdown inside of two minutes and say hey, that's a great play! And so Gurley's touchdown, which in reality was his worst play of the day, goes down as his best play of the day ... and he still ranks as the worst runner of the week. He only ran for five first downs -- and on one of those plays he fumbled, so he loses 16 DYAR on that play even though Atlanta recovered. He was stuffed four times, including a 6-yard loss on second-and-6. Finally, Gurley loses 12 DYAR for playing the Lions.

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Tyler Lockett SEA
15
20
200
13.3
3
82
ARI
Eleven of Lockett's catches gained first downs, including two conversion on third/fourth down. Only one -- a 4-yard gain on first-and-10 -- counted as a failed completion.
2.
Davante Adams GB
13
16
196
15.1
2
71
HOU
Ten of Adams' catches produced first downs. His production on third/fourth downs was off the scale. He caught seven of eight targets for a total of 125 yards, and every one of those catches produced a conversion, including two touchdowns. Minnesota's Justin Jefferson, the league leader in receiving DYAR, has only five third-/fourth-down conversions all year.
3.
A.J. Brown TEN
6
8
153
25.5
1
54
PIT
Five of Brown's catches produced first downs; the other was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10. His longest catch was a 73-yard touchdown, which included 66 yards after the catch.
4.
Tee Higgins CIN
5
5
71
14.2
1
49
CLE
Higgins' totals include 6 DYAR rushing for his one carry for 7 yards. Each of his catches produced first downs, including a 16-yard touchdown and a gain of 27.
5.
Rashard Higgins CLE
6
6
110
18.3
0
49
CIN
Cleveland's Higgins wasn't quite as efficient as Cincinnati's, but four of his catches gained at least 20 yards and a first down. The others were an 8-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 10-yard gain on second-and-11.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
CeeDee Lamb DAL
0
5
0
0.0
0
-37
WAS
Lamb's totals include -6 rushing DYAR for his one carry, a 1-yard loss. All five of his targets were thrown by Andy Dalton. None of them were any deeper than 12 yards downfield. He still didn't catch any.

Comments

23 comments, Last at 28 Oct 2020, 10:52am

1 Younger readers may not be…

Younger readers may not be aware that Priest Holmes was a fantasy megastar in the early part of this century.

I am now going to weep for my lost youth.

4 2002

Had Holmes and Ladainian Tomlinson both on my fantasy team.  It was the most dominate year I've ever had.

5 In 2005, I had LT and also…

In reply to by cstoos

In 2005, I had LT and also picked up Larry Johnson, someone had dropped him early in the season. I waltzed to my league championship. 

2 star wideout Brandon…

star wideout Brandon Marshall was deactivated following a dispute with head coach Josh McDaniels

I had somehow forgotten just how huge of a piece of shit McDaniels was (is).

6 That... is not what I…

That... is not what I expected Wentz to get with a 60% completion percentage and putting up an ANY/A below the 23rd ranked Giants' pass defense season average.

I guess maybe it's just volume? I mean, 43 passes is a lot, and "half a DYAR/attempt" would end up -5% DVOA or so on average for the year? Still seems surprisingly high.

9 Yeah, I did read the comment…

Yeah, I did read the comment. Except the Giants are a very subpar passing defense, so I'm surprised that even with a good performance on first down, the performances on the other downs - against a bad defense - wouldn't end up negative. Most of his attempts were on non-1st downs, for instance, where he didn't do so well. And DYAR is a counting stat, so, like I said, bit surprising.

8 Well, in terms of full…

Well, in terms of full-season 2019 comparables, that would be about the rookie Kyler Murray/Gardner Minshew zone, so I guess it depends how you feel about how high of a level of performance that is. And it took all game for them to finally break out with those last two touchdown drives - would have to imagine that Wentz's numbers were floating right around his season averages for most of the game.

I know he's in a horrible situation and his production is obviously going to be hurt by his circumstances, but he's still just been so sloppy when I've watched him this season. I know you've commented that he's always had these flaws to some extent. Maybe this is a case where you have a flawed player who isn't consistent on a down-to-down basis but has an outsize ability to find and create big plays - if circumstances make it almost impossible to make big plays, the floor of the offense falls out. I've been frustrated when I've watched him, probably just because I really don't enjoy the prospect of a 6-win playoff team (or worse).

10 My comment was more about…

My comment was more about the fact that the Giants are a bad pass defense and Wentz put up an at-first-glance worst per-attempt performance than the Giants' average. So, you figure, worse average than bad defense leads to bad performance. Obviously DYAR's got a lower baseline, but I would've figured "worse average than a roughly -15% DVOA pass defense = worse than -15% QB DVOA," which means negative DYAR. I know most people would look at that and be like "hey, ~30 DYAR isn't exactly good," and I get that. 

"Maybe this is a case where you have a flawed player who isn't consistent on a down-to-down basis but has an outsize ability to find and create big plays"

YES

edit: The other thing to note re: Wentz is that he's really aggressive. Hates giving up on plays, which I think is obvious to most people. But it also means that when the right play should be there he gets locked into it, even if the receiver screws up. So you get plays where Wentz is staring at a receiver who never breaks (or takes forever), and then pressure comes and he's got no idea what to do. Because he knew that play was there (and he was right), but just locked into it too much. And the Eagles receivers screw up all... the... time.

12 if circumstances make it…

if circumstances make it almost impossible to make big plays, the floor of the offense falls out.

I think it's the converse. The OL and receiving corpse are so banged up that Goffian, high-floor, on-schedule type plays simply don't exist for this offense. Functionality requires Wentz to force a success once every three or four plays with some chunk play to make the offense function at all. It's an offense with no floor and no ceiling.

13 No, Wentz gets worse when…

No, Wentz gets worse when plays that should be available aren't. The original poster kinda put that in terms of "big plays," thinking of stuff like Wentz breaking out of scrambles and finding some guy open.

But that kinda makes people think Wentz is like Wilson, who magically paints over your offensive line problems, and he's not. If Wentz sees a play is open pre-snap, he wants that play, and ends up not paying attention to all the problems that could go wrong.

" The OL and receiving corpse are so banged up that Goffian, high-floor, on-schedule type plays simply don't exist for this offense. "

For instance: you know what a super-common high-floor, on-schedule play is? Throwing the ball away. An incompletion is not that bad a play. And Wentz does throw the ball away sometimes - if the defense dictates it. If his own player screws up? Wentz is like "damnit, I'll do it myself" and totally gets himself in huge trouble for it.

In other words, it's almost like Wentz doesn't really adapt to the players around him very well. I'm not saying the offense would be good if he did. It'd just be not awful.

11 Lockett

Only one -- a 4-yard gain on first-and-10 -- counted as a failed completion.

I thought 40% on first down counted as a success.??  Or am I miss-remembering?

16 DVOA/DYAR success

In reply to by Sixknots

It's 45% on first down--so 4 yards on a standard 1st-and-10 is a minor failure.

14 Jets

Midway through the second quarter, Darnold threw a pass to Breshad Perriman that resulted in a 13-yard DPI. It was the last first down the Jets passing game produced all day.

Unfair, the Jets passing game produced a first down in the fourth quarter when Darnold led Perriman to be hit as a defenseless receiver.

17 Feedback

How much did Edmonds lose for playing the Seahawks?

He actually got a small boost. Seattle's defense is in the top 10 in run defense DVOA, and their coverage against running backs is in the middle of the pack. It's pass defense where Seattle is week, and the problems there are 1) (by a lot) the complete absence of pass rush, and 2) coverage against wide receivers.

That... is not what I expected Wentz to get with a 60% completion percentage and putting up an ANY/A below the 23rd ranked Giants' pass defense season average.

He lost 21 DYAR for playing the Giants. And it's not about volume either -- he was 19th among qualifiers in both passing DYAR and DVOA. But he was 13th in yards per dropback, 14th in success rate, so not sure why his ranking surprises you.

OK, I'm looking more at his numbers, and I think I get what's going on here. Wentz was dirt-terrible in the middle of this game -- gave up two sacks and an interception in five plays at one point, and later went 10 straight dropbacks without a first down. Maybe that portion was more memorable? But then he caught fire in the last 18 minutes or so -- eight first downs in his last 11 dropbacks, for a total of 181 yards and two touchdowns. His DYAR rank by quarter, from 1st to 4th/OT: 7th, last, 15th, 3rd. Definitely some hot-and-cold in there.

18 I'm curious about Derrick…

In reply to by Vincent Verhei

I'm curious about Derrick Henry's -18 DYAR receiving. He caught both his targets - for -3 yards, yes - and didn't fumble or anything. Obviously that's nothing to write home about, but I'm kind of shocked a couple of go-nowhere checkdowns knock off half his value. Is he being compared to wide receivers on those plays or something?

19 Well, one was a 2-yard loss…

Well, one was a 2-yard loss on first-and-10. This year, the average pass to a running back on first-and-10 has gained 5.9 yards. 50% of them have been successful plays. Only 6% have lost yardage. A 2-yard loss on first-and-10 is a very bad play.

The other was a 1-yard loss on second-and-1. There have only been a dozen passes to running backs on second-and-1 this year, but they have been effective, averaging 7.9 yards apiece. 58% of them have been successful plays -- and in this case that means a new set of downs. Three (25%) have lost yardage.

Based on raw yardage alone, we would have expected Henry to gain 13 or 14 yards on those two plays; he lost 3 instead, a difference of -16 or -17 that pretty much equals his DYAR anyway. And that's not even considering the value of a success on the second-and-1 catch. Again, 58% of the time, second-and-1 throws to running backs result in a first-and-10; Henry's resulted in a third-and-2.

23 I think the hot-cold bit for…

In reply to by Vincent Verhei

I think the hot-cold bit for Philly/Wentz is what's throwing me in both his DYAR *and* the overall DVOA for the team for that game, which as far as I can tell has got to be *way* higher than I thought (a VOA of like +20-30% or so?). 

Although I guess if you just look in aggregate, 50 YAR is what Philip Rivers had in week 1, and that's actually pretty similar. Plus by the end of the game I was just so freaking sick of their performance that I was already discounting the heck out of it, most likely.