Quick Reads
The best and worst players of the week according to Football Outsiders stats.

Week 9 Quick Reads

Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

The best quarterback of Week 9 was a loser -- or, more specifically, his team lost despite his stellar performance. The Arizona Cardinals suffered a 34-31 defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins, but that had more to do with what happened when Kyler Murray was handing off or standing on the sidelines than it did with Murray himself.

The second-year quarterback shredded a good Miami secondary, completing 21 of 26 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. That's a completion rate of 80.8% and an NFL passer rating of 150.5, both the highest marks for any quarterback facing the Dolphins this season; Murray's three scoring throws and 10.9-yard average per throw are both the best by a Miami opponent since Josh Allen had four and 11.9 in Week 2. It is literally unprecedented for a quarterback to be so efficient throwing the ball on such a high number of attempts and come away with a loss.

We'll have a lot more to say about Murray's passing in our player comment tables, but for now we are going to focus on his rushing. After all, Murray led all quarterbacks this week in passing and rushing DYAR, finishing with 106 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. Six of those carries resulted in first downs, including four conversions on third/fourth down. Five gained 10 yards or more, the longest a gain of 28. Murray finished with 40 rushing DYAR against the Dolphins; based on current baselines and opponent adjustments, that is only the fourth 40-DYAR day a quarterback has had on the ground this season. Two of those days belong to Murray: Sunday against Miami and Week 1 against San Francisco. (The others were Lamar Jackson in Week 6 against Philadelphia and Sam Darnold, of all people, in Week 4 against Denver.) Really, though, Murray's ground game has been a problem for opponents all season. He has now topped 20 rushing DYAR in six of Arizona's eight games; the rest of the league's quarterbacks have done so only 15 times total, and only two other signal-callers have done it more than once (Cam Newton and Russell Wilson each have two such games).

Murray now has 543 rushing yards, eighth among all players going into Monday Night Football. He leads the NFL with 7.1 yards per carry; he is also in the top 10 in touchdowns (eight, tied for third) and first downs (34, sixth). As you may have guessed from that average, it's the explosive runs where Murray has really dominated. He has a dozen runs of 15 yards or more, four more than any other player (Jackson and Dalvin Cook each have eight).

For the season, Murray already has 184 DYAR. That's more than double any other quarterback (Wilson is a distant second with 74) and already one of the best seasons we have ever measured for a player at that position.

Most Single-Season Rushing DYAR, QBs, 1985-2020
Year Name Team DYAR DVOA Runs Yards Avg. TD FUM G Yds/G DYAR/G
1990 Randall Cunningham PHI 297 44.8% 105 949 9.04 5 3 16 59.3 18.6
2019 Lamar Jackson BAL 273 20.5% 156 1,229 7.88 7 7 15 81.9 18.2
2014 Russell Wilson SEA 269 43.7% 97 872 8.99 6 4 16 54.5 16.8
2006 Michael Vick ATL 261 35.2% 119 1,038 8.72 2 4 16 64.9 16.3
2004 Michael Vick ATL 241 29.7% 106 919 8.67 3 2 15 61.3 16.1
1986 Randall Cunningham PHI 220 60.5% 63 540 8.57 5 0 15 36.0 14.7
1998 Steve McNair TEN 214 49.2% 66 573 8.68 4 1 16 35.8 13.4
2000 Daunte Culpepper MIN 209 39.5% 72 490 6.81 7 0 16 30.6 13.0
2002 Donovan McNabb PHI 200 50.4% 57 469 8.23 6 1 10 46.9 20.0
1988 Randall Cunningham PHI 196 31.7% 82 633 7.72 6 3 16 39.6 12.2
2010 Michael Vick PHI 192 29.0% 90 681 7.57 9 3 12 56.8 16.0
2018 Josh Allen BUF 192 33.3% 81 638 7.88 8 3 12 53.2 16.0
2000 Rich Gannon OAK 189 38.5% 74 545 7.36 4 1 16 34.1 11.8
2011 Cam Newton CAR 188 14.5% 117 718 6.14 14 0 16 44.9 11.8
1991 Steve Young SF 186 47.4% 58 421 7.26 4 0 11 38.3 16.9
2020 Kyler Murray ARI 184 37.8% 70 555 7.93 8 2 8 69.4 23.0
2000 Donovan McNabb PHI 183 36.8% 76 647 8.51 6 2 16 40.4 11.4
1997 Steve McNair TEN 179 23.0% 87 677 7.78 8 5 16 42.3 11.2
1998 Steve Young SF 174 41.5% 59 466 7.90 6 1 15 31.1 11.6
1995 Mark Brunell JAX 172 46.4% 62 483 7.79 4 2 13 37.2 13.3
Kneeldowns not included.

Since Murray and the Cardinals have played exactly eight games this season, we can conveniently double his current numbers and say he is on pace for 1,110 yards and 16 touchdowns -- the quarterback records of 1,229 yards (Jackson, 2019) and 14 touchdowns (Cam Newton, 2011) are both in jeopardy. We can also see Murray's pace of 23.0 DYAR per game; if he can maintain that rate, he will pass Randall Cunningham's all-time mark of 297 DYAR in Week 14 against the Giants. Of course, maintaining that rate would be a very difficult feat, but given Murray's game-to-game consistency and the number of games left to play, it's more likely than not that he'll break Cunningham's record before all is said and done.

What really sets Murray apart from all other runners, however, is his sacks -- or lack thereof. The Cardinals quarterback has been sacked only 10 times this season, a shockingly low number for a quarterback who runs as frequently as he does. The other 19 quarterback-seasons in the prior table suffered an average of 38.4 sacks each. Eighteen of them gave up more than 23 sacks in that season; the exception is Steve Young, who was sacked 13 times in 11 games in 1991.

It's very, very unusual for a quarterback to run like Murray without being sacked more often. Despite what you may have heard about mobile quarterbacks and their ability to escape a pass rush, the fact is that most running quarterbacks give up sacks more often than their flat-footed peers. Per Pro Football Reference and Stathead.com, Murray is now the 46th player since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 with at least 200 passes and 500 rushing yards in a season. (Several more players will join him in the next two months; likely candidates include Newton, Jackson, Wilson, and Daniel Jones, among others.) PFR also measures each quarterback's sack percentage index -- you can read their glossary for a full explanation of this stat, but in short, quarterbacks who score better than 100 in this measure have a lower sack rate (sacks, divided by the sum of sacks and pass attempts) than their peers in a given season. Murray's sack percentage index of 124 is by far the highest of those 46 quarterbacks, surpassing the mark of 115 set by New England's Steve Grogan way back in 1978. Including Murray, only nine of those 46 seasons (less than 20%) had indices of 100 or greater. The average index of the group is 87; to put that into perspective, this season it would fall in between the numbers for Joe Burrow (89) and Daniel Jones (84), the two players who are tied for second in sacks allowed this year with 28. Remember, that is the average index for running quarterbacks; some have been much worse. (At the bottom of the list you'll find Randall Cunningham's index of -4 in 1986; you can read Mike Tanier's excellent recap of that crazy Eagles season here.)

When you add all this together, you find Murray is averaging 54.3 yards gained on the ground for every sack he has taken. That would break the mark of 52.4 set by Jackson (1,206 rushing yards, 23 sacks taken) last season. In a not-coincidental note, Murray and Jackson have benefitted from playing for offensive coordinators who have embraced option running attacks in a way we have never seen in the NFL before. The distant third-place mark of 27.2 was set by Robert Griffin III in his rookie year of 2012, when Mike and Kyle Shanahan also dabbled in option schemes. After Griffin you'll find that weird Grogan year, then a list of other quarterbacks this century whose coaches experimented with the option to some degree -- Josh Allen, Steve McNair, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, and Vince Young. As Jackson and Murray keep winning -- and their teams are a combined 11-5 despite Arizona's Sunday setback -- it's likely that more teams will copy what they are doing, option offenses will continue to grow, and we'll see more quarterbacks running down the field and fewer hitting the turf.

 


 

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kyler Murray ARI
21/26
283
3
0
1
234
194
39
MIA
Only four of Murray's 21 completions failed to pick up first downs. He also gained three first downs and 42 yards on DPI calls. He was white-hot coming out of halftime -- each of his first seven throws in the second half picked up a first down. Derek Carr only had six first downs in an entire game against the Chargers. And almost all of Murray's passing success came through the air -- his average completed pass gained only 2.5 yards after the catch, tied with Garrett Gilbert for last in the league. (And it was an exact tie -- they both had 52 yards after the catch on 21 completions.)
2.
Patrick Mahomes KC
30/44
372
4
0
1
171
179
-8
CAR
Mahomes led the league in DYAR on passes to tight ends. He threw a dozen passes to tight ends, all to Travis Kelce ... and Kelce was one of the best receivers of the week, so you can scroll down to that section for more specifics.
3.
Drew Brees NO
26/32
222
4
0
1
154
154
0
TB
Brees gains a league-high 46 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the best passer in the red zone, going 7-of-10 for 57 yards and four touchdowns.
4.
Teddy Bridgewater CAR
36/48
310
2
0
2
152
138
14
KC
Bridgewater led the league in DYAR on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (15-of-17 for 95 yards and two touchdowns). In a related note, he was also first in DYAR on passes to running backs (15-of-16 for 113 yards and a touchdown).
5.
Joe Flacco NYJ
18/25
262
3
1
1
150
150
0
NE
Fourth-quarter passing: 1-of-3 for 8 yards with a sack and an interception. Yes, that's it. The Patriots ran 35 plays in the fourth quarter; the Jets ran four.
6.
Aaron Rodgers GB
25/31
305
4
0
1
149
145
5
SF
Only Kyler Murray had more DYAR in the second half than Rodgers. After halftime, the Green Bay quarterback went 12-of-13 for 156 yards and a touchdown.
7.
Matt Ryan ATL
25/35
284
3
1
2
137
131
6
DEN
Ryan was the league's best passer on third down, when he went 5-of-10 for 78 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 14-yard DPI and a sack, for six total conversions in 12 dropbacks. All of those conversions, though, came in the first half -- he was sacked on his last third-down play of the first half, then threw incompletions on each of his four third-down plays in the second.
8.
Josh Allen BUF
31/38
415
3
0
7
126
114
12
SEA
Take out sacks and Allen jumps to second place this week. He led the league in DYAR on short passes, going 27-of-32 for 310 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 1-yard DPI.
9.
Kirk Cousins MIN
13/20
220
3
0
1
112
112
0
DET
Cousins was nearly perfect in the first half, going 9-of-11 for 169 yards. Each of those completions picked up a first down, including two scores. He only threw for three first downs in the second half, but by that point the game was mostly won.
10.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
29/42
306
3
0
0
102
99
2
DAL
Only Russell Wilson had a worse first quarter than Roethlisberger, who went 2-of-5 for 2 yards in the first 15 minutes. Those two completions: a 4-yard loss on first-and-10 and a 6-yard gain on third-and-16.
11.
Tua Tagovailoa MIA
21/27
248
2
0
3
98
88
10
ARI
Tagovailoa picked up three first downs with more than 10 yards to go, tied with Matt Ryan for most in the league. Those three first downs came on 17- and 19-yard completions, plus a 21-yard DPI; his fourth ultra-long-yardage play resulted in a sack.
12.
Cam Newton NE
27/34
274
0
0
0
78
69
9
NYJ
Newton failed to throw for a touchdown against the Jets, but he ran for two, bringing his season totals to two scores through the air and eight on the ground. Only three other players have ever matched or beaten those totals through their team's first eight games: Johnny Lujack (Chicago, 1950), LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego, 2005), and Kyler Murray (Arizona, 2020).
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Lamar Jackson BAL
19/23
170
0
0
2
76
63
13
IND
Jackson had negative DYAR and only two first downs in the first half, but he completed each of his 10 passes in the second. Those 10 completions netted 119 yards and seven first downs.
14.
Justin Herbert LAC
28/41
326
2
0
2
65
77
-12
LV
Herbert loses 46 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He led the league in DYAR on passes from under center, going 4-of-5 for 86 yards and two touchdowns.
15.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
10/21
158
2
0
3
36
35
1
CHI
Tannehill had a very streaky game against Chicago. He picked up three first downs in four dropbacks in the second quarter, then first downs on three straight dropbacks in the fourth. On those seven plays, he went 6-of-7 for 110 yards and two touchdowns. He only had one first down the rest of the day, when he went 4-of-14 for 48 yards with three sacks.
16.
Deshaun Watson HOU
19/32
281
2
0
2
24
34
-10
JAX
Watson's average completion gained 11.2 yards after the catch, most of any qualifier this week.
17.
Chase Daniel DET
8/12
94
1
1
0
22
23
0
MIN
All of Daniels action came with Detroit down by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter. His success rate of 67% was highest of any qualifier this week.
18.
Jake Luton JAX
26/38
304
1
1
2
12
0
12
HOU
Luton was great on the first and last drives in this game, when he went 6-of-8 for 140 yards and a touchdown. The rest of the game ... not so much.
19.
Garrett Gilbert DAL
21/37
243
1
1
2
4
-9
13
PIT
The Cowboys led this one 19-9 at the start of the fourth quarter, in fine shape to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year. But Gilbert was the week's worst passer in the fourth quarter/overtime, when he went 7-of-16 for 97 yards with a sack and an interception.
20.
Nick Foles CHI
37/52
338
2
0
3
1
2
-2
TEN
Foles threw a league-high 14 failed completions; eight of them came with the Bears down by multiple scores in the second half.
21.
Derek Carr LV
13/23
165
2
0
1
1
-1
2
LAC
Carr's average pass traveled 12.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, most of any qualifier this week. But his success rate of 33% was tied with Tom Brady for worst of the week. Nearly 60% of his total yardage came on two completions -- a 45-yard touchdown to Nelson Agholor and a 53-yard gain to Hunter Renfrow, both on third down. He threw seven passes on first down, and though five of them were complete, they gained a total of only 22 yards and none resulted in first downs.
22.
Philip Rivers IND
25/41
227
0
1
0
-5
-5
0
BAL
Rivers was last in DYAR on passes from under center, going 0-for-4 with an interception. His average completed pass was caught only 2.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, least of any qualifier this week. From late in the second quarter till late in the fourth -- more than 30 minutes of game time -- Rivers threw for only one first down, going 11-of-21 for 62 yards with an interception.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Drew Lock DEN
26/48
313
2
1
1
-6
-27
22
ATL
Lock loses a league-high 53 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He tore up the middle of the Falcons defense, going 7-of-11 for 72 yards. Each of those completions picked up a first down, though one of the incompletions was intercepted.
24.
Russell Wilson SEA
28/41
390
2
2
5
-9
-15
6
BUF
Wilson was the league's worst passer on third/fourth downs (4-of-10 for 43 yards; one DPI for 25 yards; four conversions, including a touchdown; two interceptions; two sacks; two fumbles) and in the first quarter (6-of-9 for 48 yards with an interception).
25.
Daniel Jones NYG
23/34
212
1
0
5
-23
-12
-11
WAS
Jones gains 41 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. The Giants led 23-10 at the end of the third quarter, and any kind of offense would have given them a comfortable win. But Jones failed to throw for a single first down in the last 15 minutes of the game, going 6-of-7 for only 34 yards with two sacks.
26.
Nick Mullens SF
22/35
291
1
1
1
-27
-18
-9
GB
Red zone passing: 5-of-9 for 33 yards, no touchdowns.
27.
Matthew Stafford DET
23/32
211
1
2
2
-46
-46
0
MIN
Stafford was last in DYAR in the red zone, going 5-of-8 for 41 yards with one touchdown, one sack, and two interceptions. He was also last on passes to tight ends; he threw six passes to T.J. Hockenson and Jesse James, completing four of them for 29 yards with two interceptions.
28.
Alex Smith WAS
24/32
325
1
3
2
-95
-95
0
NYG
Smith came into this game with Washington down 10-0 late in the first quarter. He led the league in DYAR on passes to his left. Really! He completed each of his eight throws in that direction for 160 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately he was last in several other categories, including throws down the middle (6-of-13 for 78 yards with three interceptions), passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (8-of-10 for 49 yards), and passes to running backs (9-of-14 for 61 yards with two interceptions).
29.
Tom Brady TB
23/38
209
0
3
3
-214
-214
0
NO
Brady did not pick up a first down until the Buccaneers were down 21-0 in the second quarter; up to that point, he had gone 3-of-10 for 16 yards. His only third-/fourth-down conversion came with Tampa Bay down 28-0; on those downs, he went 4-of-12 for 40 yards (including a 16-yard gain on third-and-23 and a 14-yard gain on third-and-34) with an interception. He had three throws from the New Orleans 1-yard line; all three were incomplete.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dalvin Cook MIN
22
206
2
2/2
46
0
82
55
27
DET
Cook loses 21 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. The Lions only stuffed Cook twice while allowing him to run for eight first downs. Seven of those runs gained 10-plus yards, the longest a 70-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. He also picked up a first down on each of his two catches: a 17-yard gain on third-and-10 and a 29-yard gain on first-and-10.
2.
Wayne Gallman NYG
14
68
1
1/2
9
0
44
38
6
WAS
Each of Gallman's runs against Washington gained at least 2 yards. Six went for first downs, the longest a gain of 12.
3.
Tyler Ervin GB
8
24
0
4/5
48
0
36
13
23
SF
Ervin's longest carry on Thursday night gained only 8 yards, but he still managed a pair of first downs with just one stuff -- and that stuff came on third-and-15, so it had minimal effect on either the game or Ervin's DYAR. Three of his catches also produced first downs, the longest a gain of 24.
4.
Zack Moss BUF
9
18
1
2/2
30
0
34
16
18
SEA
If you're wondering how a guy can average 2.0 yards per carry and finish with positive DYAR, the answers are A) opponent adjustments (Seattle's run defense has actually been quite good this year), and B) a perfect performance in short yardage (Moss picked up a first down on each of his four carries with 3 yards or less to go). He also picked up first downs on both of his catches, 10- and 20-yard gains on first-and-10.
5.
Kerryon Johnson DET
4
29
0
3/3
36
0
33
10
24
MIN
Johnson only carried the ball four times against Minnesota, but each one gained at least 1 yard and three counted as successful plays, the best a 14-yard gain on second-and-10. His three catches gained 11, 12, and 13 yards; each picked up a first down, including a third-down conversion.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dalvin Cook MIN
22
206
2
2/2
46
0
82
55
27
DET
2.
Rex Burkhead NE
12
56
1
3/3
11
0
31
39
-8
NYJ
Burkhead's shortest run was his 1-yard touchdown, one of four first downs he gained on the ground. Nine of his runs counted as successful plays.
3.
Wayne Gallman NYG
14
68
1
1/2
9
0
44
38
6
WAS
4.
Devontae Booker LV
8
68
1
0/0
0
0
27
27
0
LAC
Just one of Booker's carries was stuffed; he ran for four first downs, including a gain of 15 and a 23-yard touchdown.
5.
Jerick McKinnon SF
12
52
1
3/4
16
0
25
27
-2
GB
McKinnon ran for six first downs against Green Bay, including conversions on all five of his carries with 2 yards or less to go. His longest carry gained only 11 yards, but he was stuffed just once.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Chase Edmonds ARI
25
70
0
3/3
18
0
-43
-47
4
MIA
More than two-dozen carries for Edmonds, and not a single one of them picked up a first down, not even his fourth-and-1 try in the fourth quarter ... which begs the question of WHY he was carrying the ball on a critical fourth-and-1 in the fourth quarter. Only four of his runs counted as successful plays, none gained more than 6 yards, and he was stuffed three times. He did pick up one first down as a receiver, a 10-yard gain on second-and-7. Oh, and he loses 13 DYAR for doing all this against the Dolphins.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Chase Edmonds ARI
25
70
0
3/3
18
0
-43
-47
4
MIA

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Davante Adams GB
10
12
173
17.3
1
77
SF
Six of Adams' catches produced first downs, including a 36-yard touchdown and gains of 34 and 49 yards. He added a seventh first down on an 8-yard DPI.
2.
Breshad Perriman NYJ
5
7
101
20.2
2
71
NE
Each of Perriman's five catches gained at least 5 yards and a first down; the longest was a 50-yard touchdown. He also added 42 yards and another first down on a DPI.
3.
Will Fuller HOU
5
5
100
20.0
1
64
JAX
Four of Fuller's catches produced first downs, the longest a 77-yard touchdown. He also had a DPI for 50 more yards and another first down.
4.
DK Metcalf SEA
7
9
108
15.4
1
58
BUF
Five of Metcalf's catches produced first downs, including gains of 27 and 41 yards. He added a sixth first down and 25 more yards on a DPI.
5.
Travis Kelce KC
10
12
159
15.9
0
56
CAR
Seven of Kelce's catches produced first downs. Three gained 10-plus yards, the longest a gain of 44.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Darnell Mooney CHI
5
11
43
8.6
0
-38
TEN
More than half of Mooney's yardage came on one play, a 22-yard gain in the third quarter. He only had one other first down on the day. He had three targets with 5 yards or less to go for a first down, two of those on third down; all three were incomplete.

 

Whatever
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Taysom Hill NO
7
54
0
1/1
21
0
68
18
8
TB
Yes, for the first time since the playoffs last year, we had to break out the special designation for Taysom Hill. He didn't get enough runs, targets, or passes to qualify for any of the other tables, but he had 10 combined opportunities to touch the ball, and he made them count. Each of his seven carries gained at least one yard and three produced first downs, including gains of 12 and 23 yards. His one target was caught for a gain of 21 to convert a second-and-16. And his two passes were both completed for third-down conversions and a combined 48 yards and 42 DYAR.

Comments

40 comments, Last at 12 Nov 2020, 11:35am

1 Is no first downs on 25…

Is no first downs on 25 carries a record? The most I know of is 24 by Mike Gillislee, wk17 of the 2015 season.

Edmonds did have a receiving first down, unlike Gillislee.

2 Huge Relief

And yet somehow, amazed Jonathan Taylor wasn't the worst RB.  Then again, his fumble was at the end of an 11 yard run.... and it wasn't ENTIRELY his fault it was returned 65 yards for s TD.

Philip Rivers can still hit a bullseye at 10 yards.  At 16 yards, however, he looks like a middle-schooler trying for a buzzer-beater from half court.  "I'm gonna heave this dadgummit pigskin as high and far as I goldarnit can, and if it's within three yards of my receiver, he can figure it out on his end.  Cheez-whiz, I hope that's a typo on the roster and he's really nine feet tall."

3 Taysom Hill

Oh, and Taysom Hill wins the Gordie Lockbaum award.  Time to suit him up as a DB/LB hybrid and get him 75 snaps a game.

4 Zack Moss proving value over…

Zack Moss proving value over volume, apparently. It was easy to forget that Buffalo even had running plays in that game.

5 I don't think the columns…

I don't think the columns are right in Taysom Hill's table. 1 catch for 21 yards = 68 DYAR? 8 Rush + 68 Rec = 18 total?

14 Hill's DYAR

I think that the receiving DYAR and Total DYAR columns are reversed. I am sure it was done manually.

Thanks for including this, Vince!

27 Which brings us to why in…

In reply to by Joseph

Which brings us to why in the tables total DYAR is always the fourth column from the right instead of the first. That always confuses me to no end.

6 Mouthpieces

 

What's up with so many players running around with mouthpieces dangling?  Isn't that kind of a stupid thing to do?  What are the rules regarding mouthpiece usage?

7 -214 DYAR for Brady seems to…

-214 DYAR for Brady seems to pretty much sum up a day when not a single thing went right.  What is the record for a week?

37 As of 2018 it was David…

As of 2018 it was David Klingler in Week 4 of 1994, totaling -302DYAR. Ryan Fitzpatrick also had a -300 DYAR game in 2016.

Kyle Allen had a -312 DYAR game recorded in Week 11 of 2019 but the opponent adjustment for Atlanta raised it to -285 by the end of the season.

Sources:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2013/week-12-quick-reads

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2018/week-10-quick-reads

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-11-quick-reads

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-17-quick-reads

8 3 of the top 5 RBs had less…

3 of the top 5 RBs had less than 30 yards rushing.  Wow.

It seems like there are a handful of teams that like to run (Titans, Ravens, Vikings, healthy Niners) and everyone else would prefer to throw until their QB's arm falls off.

36 Tyler Ervin is RB4/Gadget1…

Tyler Ervin is RB4/Gadget1 for the Packers. RB2 and 3 were out that game and RB1 was in his first game after several weeks out for injury so was used a bit less than normal. The Packers do run a decent amount, though they always split carries some. I was surprised to see Ervin on the list. GB had 25 RB carries in the game (29 total planned runs). Ervin had 8 of those, and ran OK (he was .9 ypc less than Jones who had 15 carries). Note that Ervin had 4 carries coming into the game. Like I said RB4.

 

So you can't really infer the actual Packers running game based on that. It was an odd game. Rodgers has 280 passing attempts. They have 195 carries by RB and 8 WR runs (and they really do about 1 a game) . They are listed as 222 rushing attempts when you add the kneel downs and scrambles. But 203 to 280 run pass ratio is 42/58. That is a running team in today's NFL. (44/56 if you just use the raw attempt numbers).

The vikings have 209 pass attempts and 224 non QB runs, so yes they are truly run first at 52/48. Titans are 255 pass and 224 non QB (246 total) for 47/53.

The Titans and Vikings don't have Aaron Rodgers either. They really do run a good amount and it isn't just running out the clock at end of games type stuff. So yeah the teams you think about as running teams so run more, but GB relies on running way more than people think. (Now someone will come back with the whole run/pass table and shattered my impressions I'm sure since I only did quick looks)

9 If Taysom hill threw for 42…

If Taysom hill threw for 42 DYAR, ran for 8, and caught for 68, how is his total 18?

Should be 42 pass, 8 rush, 18 receive - 68 total, right?

11 I asked the question in…

I asked the question in Audibles: is that Brady's worst DYAR game ever?

I imagine he had couple of bad weather stinkers in his early Patriots days. What about the "onto Cincinnati" game? Be cool to see a list.

12 Unless there has been a more…

Unless there has been a more recent one.

The 2014 KC game was -144 DYAR, although he didn't finish that game
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2014/week-4-quick-reads

At the time, the Lawyer Milloy Game was lower, -181 DYAR.

There's an el stinko 2006 game against Indy, too, that I'm not sure what the DYAR was. Remember, though, that far back, expected passing yards were lower and expected turnovers were higher. In raw totals, this week doesn't look terrible compared to his other career lows, but they've occurred in such a radically different offensive environment.

 

26 2009 Wild Card

I did think of his stinker in the 2009 Wild Card game against Baltimore (where they lost 33-14, down 24-0 in the first quarter).

He did have two TDs in that game so ended up at -146.

I can't think of any worse game. The 2006 Indy game may be up there though as he didn't have a TD (20/35 for 208 yds, 4 INTs - wasn't sacked though).

Another couple other contenders - looking at his game log - :

From 2005 against KC (22/40 for 248 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs, three sacks)
From 2002 against GB (24/44 for 183 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs, two sacks with two fumbles)

 

20 Where did Jakobi Meyers end…

Where did Jakobi Meyers end up?  He had 12 catches on 14 targets for 169 yards, many of them first downs or close to first downs on long yardage.

And speaking of Meyers, it's moot because Meyers was touched, but what does a player have to do in a situation like the end of the NE/NYJ game to give himself up to end the play so a TO can be called? Especially if he went to the ground catching the ball. Just make no move to get up and yell "I'm down!" at the ref?

22 when a runner declares…

when a runner declares himself down by:

  1. falling to the ground, or kneeling, and clearly making no immediate effort to advance.
  2. sliding. When a runner slides, the ball is dead the instant he touches the ground with anything other than his hands or his feet. 
    Notes:

    1. Defenders are required to treat a sliding runner as they would a runner who is down by contact.
    2. A defender must pull up when a runner begins a feet-first slide. This does not mean that all contact by a defender is illegal. If a defender has already committed himself, and the contact is unavoidable, it is not a foul unless the defender makes forcible contact into the head or neck area of the runner with the helmet, shoulder, or forearm, or commits some other act that is unnecessary roughness.
    3. A runner who desires to take advantage of this protection is responsible for starting his slide before contact by a defensive player is imminent; if he does not, and waits until the last moment to begin his slide, he puts himself in jeopardy of being contacted.

In short, you can slide or kneel, and then make a timeout motion, and that should accomplish both parts.

30 Feedback

And yet somehow, amazed Jonathan Taylor wasn't the worst RB.  Then again, his fumble was at the end of an 11 yard run.... and it wasn't ENTIRELY his fault it was returned 65 yards for s TD.

5 DYAR rushing, 0 DYAR receiving. The fumble was bad, but he did have a touchdown, and all of his carries gained at least 1 yard. 

I don't think the columns are right in Taysom Hill's table. 1 catch for 21 yards = 68 DYAR? 8 Rush + 68 Rec = 18 total?

That should be fixed now. Should be 18 DYAR rushing, 8 DYAR receiving, 42 DYAR passing, 68 DYAR total.

I asked the question in Audibles: is that Brady's worst DYAR game ever?

It takes -175 DYAR to make our Worst QB Games list and this is Brady's first appearance on it ... so yes, this is his worst game by a healthy margin.

Where did Jakobi Meyers end up?  He had 12 catches on 14 targets for 169 yards, many of them first downs or close to first downs on long yardage.

35 DYAR, 14th place. He had three failed completions on third down which is probably the biggest reason he's not higher. 

 

-214 DYAR for Brady seems to pretty much sum up a day when not a single thing went right.  What is the record for a week?

-302 DYAR by David Klinger in 1994. You can see a mostly accurate list of worst games here:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-11-quick-reads

Although Kyle Allen's game looked a little bit better by the end of the 2019 season:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2020/quick-reads-decade-review-qb-games

31 Back in 2014, Brady's 2003…

In reply to by Vincent Verhei

Back in 2014, Brady's 2003 Buffalo game was -181. I assume that's been lowered in magnitude on subsequent DVOA revisions. What is it now?