Conference Championship Quick Reads

January 25, 2021, 11:12 am ET

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

The Green Bay Packers went out with a whimper. Down by eight points to Tampa Bay late in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game, the Pack had a fourth-and-goal from the 8-yard line. When Matt LaFleur called for a field goal, he didn't just disappoint his quarterback, he disappointed all NFL fans (except, perhaps, those cheering for Tampa Bay). By pulling Aaron Rodgers off the field, LaFleur robbed his team of a chance to do something fans have been waiting to see all postseason: score a touchdown in the fourth quarter or overtime that tied the game or put one team ahead. That was still more dramatic than what we got in the AFC Championship Game, when Buffalo got a touchdown, an onside kick recovery, and a field goal … and still lost to Kansas City by two touchdowns.

There has been plenty of great storytelling in this postseason -- playoff wins for Buffalo and Cleveland for the first time since the Clinton administration, the last game in the career of Philip Rivers, the possible last game in the career of Drew Brees, the unlikely heroics of Taylor Heinicke, slime cannons, and the build to a Tom Brady-Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl that will give us a battle of generations like we have never seen before. But late lead changes have been hard to find. In 12 playoff games now -- six in the wild-card round, four in the divisional, and two championship contests -- we have not seen a single blown lead in the fourth quarter. The only fourth-quarter lead change has been a field goal: Ryan Succop's 36-yarder that broke a 20-20 tie against New Orleans in a game the Bucs would go on to win by a 30-20 margin.

This is not to say teams haven't had the opportunity for late-game heroics. Before settling for that field goal, the Packers had 14 plays (13 passes, one run) while down by eight points. That brings the league total to 193 plays this postseason where the offense had a chance to tie or take the lead (referred to in this article as "clutch plays"), an average of 16.1 per game. That seems like a decent amount of close finishes, at least.

We went back over every postseason game this century and counted every offensive touchdown scored in the fourth quarter/overtime trailing by eight points or less or tied, and every field goal in the fourth quarter/overtime trailing by three points or less or tied. We also counted all offensive plays in the final frame with a chance to tie or take the lead. Here are the results:

Year-by-Year Fourth-Quarter Excitement, Playoff Games, 2000-2020
Year	Clutch Plays*	CP/G	TD**	FG**	Scores**
2000	93	8.5	3	0	3
2001	186	16.9	2	4	6
2002	182	16.5	3	3	6
2003	324	29.5	9	7	16
2004	221	20.1	5	3	8
2005	111	10.1	0	0	0
2006	316	28.7	5	7	12
2007	300	27.3	9	3	12
2008	219	19.9	5	4	9
2009	195	17.7	7	1	8
2010	170	15.5	2	4	6
2011	295	26.8	9	2	11
2012	236	21.5	6	2	8
2013	169	15.4	5	3	8
2014	197	17.9	6	2	8
2015	244	22.2	6	2	8
2016	112	10.2	4	3	7
2017	216	19.6	6	2	8
2018	249	22.6	9	5	14
2019	181	16.5	3	3	6
2020	193	16.1	0	1	1
* Runs and passes with a chance to tie or take the lead. ** Go-ahead or game-tying offensive touchdowns and field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime.

The 2020 mark of 16.1 clutch plays per game is below average, but right in line with the 16.5 we saw last season, and way more than the 10.2 we saw as recently as 2016. That year is most remembered for New England's 34-28 overtime win over Atlanta in the Super Bowl, but even that game included only 23 clutch plays. Only two other games that postseason were decided by less than 13 points.

There have been five years with fewer clutch plays per game than we have seen this year. The low-water mark was actually the first year of the century -- the 2000 postseason produced only 8.5 clutch plays per game. That was the year that Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl with the Ravens; other quarterbacks who won starts that postseason include Kerry Collins, Aaron Brooks, and Jay Fiedler. It was a dark age for NFL offenses, so it's no surprise there were no clutch field goals scored, and only three clutch touchdowns. The average margin of victory in those playoffs was 17.7; only two games were decided by less than 10 points.

The most exciting postseason this century was in 2003, when seven of 11 playoff games were decided by seven points or less. There were 16 late ties or lead changes that year, and nearly 30 clutch plays per game. Notable games that season include Green Bay's 33-27 overtime win over Seattle ("We want the ball and we're gonna score"); Philadelphia's 20-17 overtime win against Green Bay (fourth-and-26); Carolina's 29-23 double-overtime win against the Rams in St. Louis (53 clutch plays in that game alone); and New England's 32-29 Super Bowl win over Carolina (four lead changes or ties in the last seven minutes).

We saw the opposite of that in 2005, when a dozen NFL teams somehow produced zero late lead changes in 11 playoff games. If you'll forgive a bullet point storm, I feel the need to cover these games one at a time:

The Patriots beat Jacksonville 28-3.
Washington opens up a 14-point lead and hangs on for a 17-10 win over Tampa Bay in a Mark Brunell-Chris Simms quarterback duel.
In his first playoff game, Eli Manning leads the Giants to a 23-0 home loss against Carolina.
The Steelers finish off Jon Kitna's Bengals with 24 unanswered points to win 31-17.
In Denver, the Broncos take a 24-6 lead over New England and go on to win 27-13.
Brunell and Washington fall behind Seattle 17-3 in the fourth quarter before losing 20-10.
In Chicago, the Bears and Panthers play a game as nutty as you'd expect considering the quarterbacks were Rex Grossman and Jake Delhomme. The Panthers go up 13-0, then the teams trade scores the rest of the day. The Bears have three drives in the fourth quarter down 29-21; those three drives produce a punt, an interception, and an incomplete pass on fourth-and-1.
The Steelers go into Indianapolis and open a 21-3 lead in the second half. The Colts rally to pull within 21-18, but their last two drives result in a fourth-down sack and a missed field goal. The game is best remembered for Jerome Bettis' goal-line fumble in between those two drives, which was nearly returned for a game-winning defensive touchdown.
In the NFC Championship Game, Seattle goes up 17-0 in the first minute of the second quarter; that lead grows to 34-7 before a garbage-time Carolina touchdown makes the final 34-14.
In the AFC Championship Game, the Steelers lead 24-3 at halftime and go on to defeat Denver 34-17.
In a fitting end for this wretched tournament, the Steelers defeat Seattle 21-10 in the Super Bowl in a game remembered more for the officials than the players.

Now that was a terrible offseason. The 2020 postseason has already been better than that, and there's still one game left. And with the best young quarterback in playoff history on one side and the best old quarterback in playoff history on the other, we could still be in store for plenty of fireworks.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	29/38	325	3	0	1	184	181	3	BUF
The Bills played a lot of soft zone coverage to take away deep passes, and they succeeded at that -- Mahomes only threw two deep balls, completing one for 16 yards. But in the process, they left themselves very vulnerable to YAC plays. Mahomes completed all nine of his passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, and though they only gained a total of 35 yards, six of them picked up first downs, including two scores. Mahomes was also excellent in the red zone, going 6-of-8 for 37 yards and three touchdowns.
2.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	33/48	346	3	1	5	90	90	0	TB
Rodgers gains 57 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His 2-yard touchdown to Davante Adams pulled the Packers to within five points of Tampa Bay, trailing 28-23. From that point forward, however, he went 4-of-11 for 54 yards with two sacks. He was also 4-of-11 in the red zone, gaining 28 yards and two touchdowns. He completed all seven of his throws to tight ends for a total of 50 yards and a touchdown. He was at his best on third downs, going 8-of-11 for 129 yards with seven conversions (including two touchdowns) and two sacks.
3.	Tom Brady	TB	20/36	280	3	3	1	42	42	0	GB
Speaking of quarterbacks who were best on third/fourth downs, Brady went 8-of-12 for 163 yards with eight conversions, including a touchdown, plus a 15-yard DPI, with one sack and one interception. He had a very uncharacteristic cold streak in the second half -- in seven passes, he completed as many throws to his teammates (three, for a total of 21 yards, including a 1-yard loss) as he did to Packers defenders.
4.	Josh Allen	BUF	29/48	287	2	1	4	-76	-99	22	KC
We'll start with the good news: each of Allen's seven runs gained at least 8 yards, four gained first downs, and they gained a total of 88 yards, including two third-down conversions. And he was outstanding when throwing down the middle, going 7-of-8 for 109 yards and a touchdown. The bad news is how badly Allen struggled when throwing the ball to his left (7-of-13 for only 35 yards with one touchdown and one interception) and when inside the Kansas City 40-yard line (8-of-19 for 49 yards with two touchdowns, two sacks, and interception). Allen's biggest problem was taking megasacks -- four sacks is not an especially high number, but those four sacks lost a combined 53 yards, and he lost 16 more on an intentional grounding call. That's a total of 69 yards lost, most by any quarterback in a game this year. (Carson Wentz lost 62 yards on eight sacks against Washington way back in Week 1.)

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	T.J. Yeldon	BUF	3	15	0	4/5	41	0	12	3	9	KC
Yeldon loses 14 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His three carries, all in the second quarter: 7-yard gain on second-and-10; 4-yard gain on third-and-3; 4-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 8. All four of his catches came on first-and-10 and each gained at least 6 yards and counted as a successful play, though only one (a 20-yarder) picked up a first down. It, um, wasn't a big day for running backs.
2.	Darrel Williams	KC	13	52	1	1/1	9	0	11	5	7	BUF
Williams was stuffed twice while running for five first downs, the longest a 13-yard gain on third-and-11. His one catch was a 9-yard gain on fourth-and-1.
3.	Jamaal Williams	GB	7	23	0	4/4	22	0	2	-2	4	TB
Williams gains 12 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He only ran for one first down (a 12-yard gain on second-and-6) and one other successful carry (a 6-yard gain on first-and-10). Two of his runs were stuffed for no gain, and two others gained 1 yard apiece on first-and-10 and second-and-4. Only one of his catches -- an 11-yard gain on third-and-2 -- produced a first down or counted as a successful play.
4.	Leonard Fournette	TB	12	55	1	5/7	19	0	-11	4	-15	GB
Fournette loses 11 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was stuffed just once, but only two of his carries gained first downs (the longest a 20-yard touchdown) and just two more counted as successful plays. He added just one more first down (a 6-yard gain on fourth-and-4) as a receiver.
5.	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	6	7	1	1/2	0	0	-14	-4	-10	BUF
Though he did convert a pair of carries with 1 yard to go for a first down, Edwards-Helaire's longest carry gained only 5 yards, and he was stuffed twice. His one catch resulted in no gain on third-and-3.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Aaron Jones	GB	6	27	0	4/6	7	0	-36	13	-48	TB
All of Jones' carries gained at least 1 yard, the longest gained 12, and two gained first downs. I mean, really, it wasn't a big day for running backs.
2.	Darrel Williams	KC	13	52	1	1/1	9	0	11	5	7	BUF
3.	Leonard Fournette	TB	12	55	1	5/7	19	0	-11	4	-15	GB
4.	T.J. Yeldon	BUF	3	15	0	4/5	41	0	12	3	9	KC
5.	Jamaal Williams	GB	7	23	0	4/4	22	0	2	-2	4	TB

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Aaron Jones	GB	6	27	0	4/6	7	0	-36	13	-48	TB
This was the worst receiving DYAR for a running back this season, surpassing Washington's J.D. McKissic's day against Detroit in Week 10. As noted in Audibles, Jones is only the third player this year, and the first running back, to fumble on two receptions in the same game. That's how he accumulated -48 receiving DYAR in only a half-dozen targets; the record is -59 DYAR by Seattle's John L. Williams in 1992, and it took him 15 targets to get there. Jones' two completions that he didn't fumble went for no gain on second-and-9 and 5 yards on first-and-10.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Ronald Jones	TB	10	16	0	0/0	0	0	-21	-21	0	GB
How does an NFL running back get 10 carries in a game and fail to gain 5 yards even one time? Only one of Jones' carries -- a 2-yard gain on third-and-1 -- gained a first down or counted as a successful play. He was stuffed twice and also failed to convert on a second-and-3. It cannot be stated enough how bad this day was for running backs.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Tyreek Hill	KC	9	11	172	19.1	0	56	BUF
Six of Hill's catches produced first downs, including gains of 33 and 71 yards. The other three gained 5, 7, and 8 yards on first-and-10, each counting as a successful play.
2.	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	4	6	115	28.8	1	50	TB
Four catches: 50-yard touchdown; 12-yard gain on second-and-10; 24-yard gain on first-and-10; 29-yard gain on second-and-1.
3.	Travis Kelce	KC	13	15	118	9.1	2	44	BUF
Kelce's 13 catches were a postseason record for tight ends, but he didn't come close to his on regular- or postseason record for DYAR in a game set last year against Houston. His longest reception gained only 17 yards, four of them failed to pick up first downs, and one counted as a failed completion.
4.	Chris Godwin	TB	5	9	110	22.0	0	37	GB
Godwin's totals include 5 rushing DYAR for his one carry, a 6-yard gain. All five of his receptions gained at least 11 yards and a first down; his longest was a 52-yard gain on third-and-9.
5.	Mecole Hardman	KC	2	3	4	2.0	1	32	BUF
Well here's a statline you don't see every day, especially not in the "Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR" section. Hardman's two catches were a 1-yard gain on second-and-1 and a 3-yard touchdown. His totals include 23 rushing DYAR for his one carry, a 50-yard gain. They do not include his fumble on a punt return that led to an early Buffalo touchdown -- this column looks only at offensive plays, not special teams.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Gabriel Davis	BUF	0	3	0	0.0	0	-21	KC
Two incompletions on first-and-10, another on second-and-10, all with Buffalo down by at least 17 points in the fourth quarter.

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Comments

31 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2021, 1:16pm

#1 by jheidelberg // Jan 25, 2021 - 11:34am

How appropriate was this timing? Last week I posted that maybe Buffalo's was on to something with a nearly 100-0 pass run ratio against the Ravens. A long and interesting conversation ensued with many commenters.

Then to the games. 6 carries for 27 yards resulted in the best rushing DYAR of the week!!!!

I would not expect to see too many running plays in the Super Bowl.

#3 by MRCHalifax // Jan 25, 2021 - 11:46am

I would not be surprised to see Mahomes and Brady having the most rushing DYAR in the Super Bowl. Like, Mahomes scrambling for four long first downs and a TD, Brady sneaking for two TDs and two 4th down conversations or something.

#5 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 25, 2021 - 12:39pm

Yeldon was also the most value back on the weekend.

\maybe they weren't so crazy playing him at crunch time

#9 by Boots Day // Jan 25, 2021 - 1:04pm

Yeldon had one (1) reception all season, before coming up with four yesterday.

#2 by Dr. Mooch // Jan 25, 2021 - 11:35am

I thought Gabriel Davis was inactive, until some time around the beginning of the 4th quarter when I finally saw him lurking in the background.

Fans of the 2019 Bills got a real treat yesterday, with lots of playing time for people like John Brown, Lee Smith, and TJ Yeldon.

#14 by Tutenkharnage // Jan 25, 2021 - 3:50pm

Davis was banged up, and Cole Beasley was playing on a broken fibula. Oh, and John Brown was also gimpy.

#21 by Mike B. In Va // Jan 26, 2021 - 9:44am

Diggs also has a pulled oblique.

#4 by big10freak // Jan 25, 2021 - 12:32pm

Has any other running back led the rushing table while being the worst overall running back in the same weekend?

Seems like an unlikely outcome

#6 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 25, 2021 - 12:43pm

I would think it's not uncommon in the CG or SB weeks.

#7 by FlippingADollar // Jan 25, 2021 - 12:43pm

And the other was perfect throw to Tyreek Hill who dropped it for the first drive's 3 and out.

#8 by jheidelberg // Jan 25, 2021 - 1:00pm

Bruce Arians might be asking," Who is this guy Mahomes that I must prepare my team for in the Super Bowl"? He threw only two deep balls, completing one for 16 yards. A QB should have this accomplished within 10 plays. This guy must be easy to defend.

#10 by rmjohnston // Jan 25, 2021 - 1:14pm

I couldn't help but notice how much Josh Allen looked like the Josh Allen of 2018-19. Best running back to play quarterback, terrible decision making, sailing throws, almost all of his production coming with the bills down 2 or 3 scores, no significant deep game despite his cannon arm. He was sharper than 2018-19 Allen on quick passes to the middle of the field, but his decision making on Sunday was, if anything, even worse. His sacks and grounding penalty were awful, with Allen routinely dashing backwards or out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage, and he threw several near interceptions in situations where there was no chance of a completion.

To be sure, Allen had a great season this year, but 2018-19 Allen is still lurking, and all the proclamations that Allen is an elite quarterback are significantly premature. The Bills need to remember that you never grant a huge contract based on one great season, especially to a QB who never beforehand broke the replacement-level-passer barrier. The chances that Allen turns out to be a replacement-level-to-league-average QB remain perilously high.

#11 by Bobman // Jan 25, 2021 - 2:07pm

I was stunned at how out of his comfort zone Allen looked, but I think a lot of credit goes to the KC defense that seemed tom come out of nowhere to play well in every position. Chris Jones was getting his mail forwarded to the Bills backfield for convenience so he didn't have to walk all the way over to his own side for Sports Illustrated.

Allen was frustratingly bad when hit in the pocket--one f those sacks looked like it was 30 yards deep although I think it was "only" 15. At least he didn't throw picks in those situations (another fixable problem, but a real kiss of death in the game). My wife was griping "that's what happens when you are this great athlete, you always think you can fix any situation because you always have before." Experience tends to fix those things. And all these guys are great athletes....

I agree some caution is warranted, but I do think he's likely to end up on a tier just below Mahomes (with the rest of our species) in a few years.

#13 by dmstorm22 // Jan 25, 2021 - 2:30pm

I agree his propensity to take big sacks is glaring - even saw it in the Colts game with the sack-fumble that nearly set-up the Colts on the plus-side down three.

I generally think its an overstatement to say yesterday was 2018-19 Allen. He had a few high throws but he also suffered a few drops and had to throw the generally blanketed receivers. The Chiefs ability to cover the Bills all over was incredible

#23 by Clock_Football // Jan 26, 2021 - 2:50pm

Sorry didn't see your post before I responded to the Josh Allen thread. Yes, that's my view as well. Would also add that he has generally benefitted this year from the ability to buy time and let his WRs wiggle free (especially to good throwing lanes / angles) and that was not happening in this game.

This was an ugly, demoralizing performance by the offense (and Josh Allen) but I wonder how much of it was his fault. For instance, if you put Tom Brady in the same position would he have fared differently?

#27 by turbohappy // Jan 27, 2021 - 11:47pm

Yeah he has this propensity sometimes to get spooked and go straight backwards. This has gotta make his tackles want to punch him in the face as that's exactly where you're trying to send a speed rusher. Against the Colts this wasn't actually insane, they got a lot of inside pressure (mostly Buckner) and not as much off the edge so he only got burned once (although that one time very nearly cost them the game). But KC was getting mostly edge pressure where he had space to step up but he kept backing himself into the pressure instead.

This doesn't mean he's a bad QB, that's insane to think after watching him play this year. But it's a pretty big flaw that needs fixing to reach his potential. Needs to add some occasional Peyton Manning style "well this play isn't gonna work I'm just gonna spike the ball into the ground vaguely near the RB" plays to his repertoire, and to step up into the pocket more often when it's there to do so.

#29 by Clock_Football // Jan 29, 2021 - 12:29pm

Yeah,,I think that your analysis is pretty much spot on.

#22 by Clock_Football // Jan 26, 2021 - 2:26pm

"The chances that Allen turns out to be a replacement-level-to-league-average QB remain perilously high." Seriously? YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT JOSH ALLEN. It's time to admit it and move on. If they redrafted the whole NFL right now he would go in the top 10 (maybe top 5).

"The Bills need to remember that you never grant a huge contract based on one great season, especially to a QB who never beforehand broke the replacement-level-passer barrier." This is a universal rule in sports if that year is an aberration. This is NOT an aberration. It is the latest data point in a steady progression of improvement. He is still young and inexperienced (at the highest level of football) and there's a good chance that his ceiling is not in and he could improve further. This is not some seasoned veteran who has played consistently poorly and then threw in one good outlier year.

"His sacks and grounding penalty were awful, with Allen routinely dashing backwards or out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage, and he threw several near interceptions in situations where there was no chance of a completion." Yes, I agree. This is a remaining flaw that he needs to get fixed. He still doesn't have the proper respect for extremely bad outcomes. These long sacks that he has been willing to take (by digging himself an even deeper hole) are only one side of this. The fumble against INDY late in a similar situation could have cost them the wild card game. The previous season against HOU in the wild card game, same thing ..he had that ill advised pitch after running 30 yards that luckily went out of bounds. To reach his full potential he is going to need to learn to respect bad outcomes and take his medicine when it is warranted. This is almost a prerequisite to being a great QB in the modern game.

#24 by Eddo // Jan 26, 2021 - 3:30pm

Jared Goff should be a good example in the risks of paying a young QB as if improvement will be sustained. I don't think the Rams are happy they gave him that huge extension any more - and he sustained his high DYAR and DVOA for a year, which Josh Allen hasn't done yet.

Goff's DYAR and DVOA, year by year:

Year 1: -881, -74.8%
Year 2: +1125, +24.0%
Year 3: +1114, +17.0%
Year 4: +552, +2.0%
Year 5: +385, -1.1%

Josh Allen's DYAR and DVOA, year by year:

Year 1: -534, -35.9%
Year 2: -21, -11.8%
Year 3: +1460, +25.9%

#26 by Clock_Football // Jan 27, 2021 - 6:26pm

Good point! The Goff example is an excellent counter argument, and I agree that the Rams would take that one back if they could. If I had to offer a rebuttal it would be that a) McVay installed an offense in year 2 that made it really easy for him to succeed, and that when accessing his performance after years 2 or 3, most analysts would have had some concerns that a chunk of his success was both scheme dependent and a product of an extremely successful running game led by two career years from first team all-pro Todd Gurley. Note: the chinks in the armor started to show after the Gurley injury and culminated in the miserable performance in the Super Bowl against the Patriots . b) One of the reasons that I felt strongly that Josh Allen would have a good year this year (besides his obvious skill set and leadership / toughness) was that if you paid close attention to his career it was very clear that he was consistently showing significant improvement.

- You would not have expected him to be able to start in the NFL in his first year out of Wyoming given how raw he was, yet the Bills were respectable when he played despite the worst offensive personnel in football. I believe he was 5-6 as a rookie starter while the Bills with the other QBs were an unmitigated disaster ...maybe the worst team in the league. In the 5 starts made by Peterman, Anderson, and Barkley they scored in single digits 4 times!!

- If you watched the film, you could see clear progress during the year 2 season, especially improved throw selection and him starting to learn that it was appropriate to put air under the ball when throwing to receivers running away from him.

- Year 3 ..well I don't really need to go into that.

Anyway, suffice to say, I think you would hard pressed to find examples of young athletes who showed that kind of consistent, steady improvement over a number of years and then suffered the kind of massive regression that was cited in the original post (from 3rd in the MVP voting to a below average QB?) without a major injury being involved ...and to this point he has never missed a start.

#28 by Mike B. In Va // Jan 28, 2021 - 10:53am

The Eagles would take Wentz back right now, but wouldn't have in 2019 when he was single-handedly dragging them to the playoffs. Hindsight is always 20/20. However, if Wentz left as a free agent because they didn't extend him and had a 2,000 DYAR season, they would also take that back.

Then again, Houston might take that Watson extension back now, too. There's risk involved in making these decisions in both directions.

#30 by Clock_Football // Jan 29, 2021 - 12:51pm

Yes, of course, every contract is a risk / reward proposition and the Bills should only consider extending Allen if they think it is a good speculation given that they still have the 4th year of his contract and 5th year option remaining. Of course, if you extend him, you are also taking on injury risk (into those forward looking years) that you don't have on the books now ..so that is a small, additional consideration.

Given the above, do you extend him with a contract commensurate with being 3rd in the MVP voting? No, there seems like little upside to this and a lot of risk. Would you extend him if you were paying him like the 7th or 8th best QB? Maybe. Below that ... yeah that seems like a good gamble, I think.

#25 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 26, 2021 - 3:39pm

His sacks and grounding penalty were awful, with Allen routinely dashing backwards or out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage, and he threw several near interceptions in situations where there was no chance of a completion.

Taking an 18 yard sack on 3rd-10, down 17 with 3:30 to go, is terrible.

Almost as bad as as taking a 30 yard sack on 3rd-12 in the first quarter. Like Patrick Mahomes did against the Dolphins. Those occasional disaster sacks are the price you pay for a QB who can run around and make a downfield play happen. Allen at least did it in a clear desperation situation where they really needed a TD and a TO didn't really matter anymore.

#31 by bravehoptoad // Jan 29, 2021 - 1:16pm

The Bills need to remember that you never grant a huge contract based on one great season....

Never? If it's a choice between signing him or letting him walk, you'd always let the guy walk?

#12 by big10freak // Jan 25, 2021 - 2:09pm

issues were to me a combination of three things:

--Tampa d-line push

--12 being Adams centric on pass plays

--play calling sequence

#16 by dank067 // Jan 25, 2021 - 4:27pm

I don't think I blame the playcalling there. On the two drives where Rodgers went 0/3 from inside the 10, they probably should have scored on 3/6 of those plays. Adams was open in the end zone twice on the first trip, but the throws were just a hair off or late and Adams couldn't quite get his hands and feet where they needed to be. I know they showed Lazard wide open on that 3rd down - can't fault Rodgers too much for throwing to Adams because he was open too, they just weren't sharp enough on the execution.

And then in the final sequence, Lazard was wide open on the RPO and just wasn't looking for the ball. Maybe he doesn't walk into the end zone, but he's a tough runner and even if he didn't score it would have been 2nd and Goal from very close. Plays were there to be made in the red zone passing game and all over the field, really - unfortunately the pressure short-circuited too many drives and I think they just got "B" efforts from Rodgers and a few of the receivers on a day where other mistakes gave them very little margin for error.

#15 by Arkaein // Jan 25, 2021 - 4:24pm

AJ Dillion had 3 carries for 17 yards and caught his only target for 13 yards. Not an amazing day, but not even 3 DYAR?

#18 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 25, 2021 - 4:52pm

I guess he was the best RB of the day with 11 DYAR rushing, 10 DYAR receiving. Our data launcher has a standard minimum of five touches for running backs, because in a normal week, even in the playoffs, nobody with fewer touches than that is worth looking at. This was not a normal week.

#19 by Arkaein // Jan 25, 2021 - 5:34pm

Thanks for looking Vince. I thought it might be something like that. I wouldn't have even thought of it without seeing how low the bar was to make the chart and remembering that Dillon had a few nice plays and no unusually bad ones.

#17 by dank067 // Jan 25, 2021 - 4:38pm

What a huge bummer that probably Aaron Jones' last game in GB had to end like that. Just a super fun player to watch - sensational at squeezing into tiny spaces and bursting through for yardage that doesn't look like it's there, and incredible ability to break tackles for a guy his size. If it won't be GB, hopefully he can find a good situation and put up more highlights.