Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields

QR Week 3: Can Justin Fields Do Anything Right?

Avoid sacks and complete passes. Those, in a nutshell, are the most important parts of an NFL quarterback's job. If a passer can handle those two tasks, the rest of his assignments will take care of themselves more often than not. But Justin Fields, in his first NFL start, showed little capability of doing either.

Fields was sacked on his very first dropback against the Cleveland Browns. And his third. And his fourth. And his eighth, 11th, and 13th. That's a half-dozen sacks, nearly a 50% sack rate from the opening kickoff into the third quarter. And things weren't that much better even when Fields was able to get a pass off—he only completed three of his first seven passes for a total of 29 yards, with none of those completions picking up first downs. That includes a streak of nine straight dropbacks that each resulted in an incomplete pass or a sack. Things barely improved after that as overmatched Bears coaches repeatedly asked an overwhelmed Fields to overcome a ferocious Browns pass rush.

When the smoke finally cleared and the clock mercifully hit triple-zeroes, Fields had been sacked nine times, half again as often as any other quarterback in a game this year. (Fields has now been sacked 11 times this season, second-most behind the 15 of fellow rookie Zach Wilson.) Meanwhile, he had only completed six passes. There were eight quarterbacks this week who had more completions than that in the first quarter.

It has been nearly two decades since we have seen one quarterback rack up so many sacks with so few completions in a single game. The last to do it was David "Derek Carr's Older Brother" Carr in Week 2 of 2002, a 24-3 loss to the Chargers that was the second ever game in the history of the Houston Texans. Then you have to go back another three decades earlier to find Bobby Douglass' performance in a 6-3 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 12 of 1971. And … that's it. The Player Game Finder at Stathead.com has quarterback sack data going back to the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, and in a half-century-plus of football since, Fields, Carr, and Douglass are the only three players to give up nine or more sacks with six or fewer completions in a single game.

There are others, however, who have either given up more sacks or completed fewer passes and thus finished with an even wider gap between the two categories. After doing a bushelful of separate Stathead searches, we put together the following table, which lists all quarterbacks since 1970 who had at least three more sacks than completions in a single game.

All QBs, At Least 3 More Sacks than Completions, 1970-2021
Year Wk Player Tm Opp Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sack Sack-Cmp
Margin
1980 16 Mike Loyd STLC WAS 0 9 0 0 0 6 6
1976 4 Parnell Dickinson TB BALC 1 5 12 0 1 6 5
1975 3 Greg Landry DET DAL 7 18 85 1 0 11 4
1978 13 Mike Rae TB CHI 4 12 54 0 0 8 4
1979 10 Jim Zorn SEA LAR 2 17 25 0 0 6 4
2000 1 Troy Aikman DAL PHI 0 5 0 0 1 4 4
2016 13 Colin Kaepernick SF CHI 1 5 4 0 0 5 4
1970 10 Frank Ryan WAS DAL 1 4 3 0 0 4 3
1971 12 Bobby Douglass CHI DEN 6 25 50 0 2 9 3
1973 6 Dennis Shaw BUF MIA 3 9 35 0 0 6 3
1975 9 Archie Manning NO MIN 5 18 62 1 0 8 3
1977 3 Joe Pisarcik NYG ATL 1 5 78 0 0 4 3
1977 4 Randy Hedberg TB WAS 0 2 0 0 0 3 3
1978 4 David Whitehurst GB SD 7 14 92 0 1 10 3
1979 16 Steve Pisarkiewicz STLC CHI 5 28 65 0 2 8 3
1981 10 Neil Lomax STLC PHI 0 3 0 0 1 3 3
1983 1 John Elway DEN PIT 1 8 14 0 1 4 3
1984 3 Steve Grogan NE SEA 0 4 0 0 1 3 3
1984 14 Richard Todd NO LAR 1 5 22 0 2 4 3
1986 4 Randall Cunningham PHI LAR 0 3 0 0 1 3 3
1986 9 Randall Cunningham PHI STLC 0 1 0 0 0 3 3
1987 4 Guido Merkens PHI CHI 7 14 70 0 0 10 3
1995 9 Craig Erickson IND NYJ 0 2 0 0 0 3 3
2002 2 David Carr HOU SD 6 25 87 0 2 9 3
2011 15 Vince Young PHI NYJ 0 0 0 0 0 3 3
2021 3 Justin Fields CHI CLE 6 20 68 0 0 9 3

No, that is not a typo: in the only start of his NFL career, Mike Loyd really did go 0-for-9 while being sacked six times in a 31-7 loss to Washington in 1980. That's a six-play difference between sacks and completions, the largest we have found. Loyd was not a very successful professional quarterback, managing that one NFL start along with brief stints in the CFL and USFL. He was not a very successful collegiate quarterback either, completing 25.0% of his passes (still not a typo) in limited action at Tulsa. But he was a very successful football coach, lasting 40 years at the high school and junior college level, including an NJCAA championship plus two runner-up appearances at Northeast Oklahoma A&M College (go Golden Norsemen!). In recent years, Loyd encouraged his high school players to participate in multiple sports and said that "It's not win at all cost. The best part of my day has been going to practice and coaching kids." Loyd recently retired, but still shares occasional nuggets of wisdom on Twitter.

Behind Loyd we find Parnell Dickinson. Like Loyd, Dickinson spent one year in the NFL with just one start, though that's not the game we're talking about today—Dickinson's one-completion, five-sack game came in relief of Steve Spurrier in a 42-17 loss to the Baltimore Colts in Tampa Bay's expansion season in 1976. (Spurrier, Dickinson, and Lee McGriff combined that day for four completions and eight sacks.) Unlike Loyd, Dickinson was a very successful collegiate player, eventually going into the Black College Football Hall of Fame for his exploits at Mississippi Valley State before becoming the first quarterback ever drafted by the Buccaneers. Dickinson also played some in the CFL before getting into the insurance sales and childcare industries.

Five quarterbacks are tied for third place with four more sacks than completions in a game. If you're reading Football Outsiders, you know who Troy Aikman and Colin Kaepernick are. Many of you will also be familiar with Jim Zorn (long-time starter for the Seahawks beginning with their expansion season in 1976) and Greg Landry (Detroit's starter for most of the 1970s who made the Pro Bowl in 1971 and won Comeback Player of the year in 1976). Mike Rae is not as well known, unless you're a Golden State football historian. Rae was the starting quarterback for a 1972 USC Trojans team that went undefeated and finished first in the AP poll every week of the season. He was drafted by Oakland in 1973, but didn't play in a regular-season game until 1976, when he won a pair of starts for a Raiders team that went on to win the Super Bowl. Rae joined the Buccaneers in 1978 and went 1-4 as a backup to Doug Williams. Unfortunately, his four-completion, eight-sack day in a 14-3 loss to Chicago was part of a broader trend—Rae finished that season with nearly two-thirds as many sacks (37) as completions (57), a mind-boggling ratio. Like others on this list, Rae went on to play in Canada and the USFL before getting into coaching, but not in football—he spent time as the head golf instructor at Saddleback College in Mission Viejo, California. If there is a cushier job in the world than backup NFL quarterback, it's getting paid to play 18 holes a day in the SoCal sunshine, and Mike Rae managed to land both gigs.

Getting back to Fields—can we draw any conclusions from his terrible debut? One thing's for sure: he's not likely to get so many more sacks than completions again. Randall Cunningham is the only player to show up in our table twice, with both games coming in the 1986 season when a Philadelphia coaching staff that had plainly gone mad used their young passer almost exclusively as a third-and-long specialist in one of the more disastrous experiments in league history. It's Cunningham and John Elway, however, who give Fields and the Bears the most cause for hope—they stick out as the names on this table who had terrible games as youngsters before enjoying brighter days in their future.

If we expand our sample size to include all games where a player had more sacks than completions, Cunningham still tops the list with seven, including four in that miserable 1986 year and one other as a rookie in 1985. Two players are tied for second place with six. The first is Douglass, the hard-running, poor-throwing Bears quarterback of the 1970s whose 968 rushing yards in 1972 set the standard at the position until Michael Vick came along 30 years later. The other is—surprise!—Marcus Allen. The Hall of Fame running back was dangerous on the halfback option pass, a tactic the Raiders liked to use every other game or so in the 1980s. But when the defense wasn't fooled, Allen was smart enough to take the loss rather than risk a turnover. He took six sacks in his career, spread out over six different games, with zero pass attempts in those contests. Meanwhile, he threw 27 passes, resulting in six touchdowns with only one interception. Fun fact: Marcus Allen has a higher career passer rating (106.8) than Josh Allen (90.9).

Before Fields, the last quarterback with more sacks than completions in a game was Tua Tagovailoa, who completed one pass with a pair of sacks way back in Week 2 of this year. There were 14 such games in 2020, but it's a motley crew—the best was probably Jacoby Brissett, who did it twice in relief of Philip Rivers. The last player to do it who was anything close to a good quarterback was Marcus Mariota, who once completed 10 passes while taking 11 sacks for Tennessee in 2018. Jay Cutler once had an eight-completion, nine-sack outing for Chicago in 2010.

So no, hope is not lost for Fields just because he had one bad game. Hope may be lost because his head coach has no idea what he's doing, but that's a topic for a different essay.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Josh Allen BUF
32/43
358
4
0
0
196
202
-6
WAS
Allen was the league's best passer on throws to wide receivers, going 23-of-30 for 285 yards and two touchdowns, plus an 8-yard DPI. And that's under-selling things somewhat, because his last three passes to wideouts—each thrown with a three-score lead in the second half—were all incomplete.
2.
Kirk Cousins MIN
30/38
323
3
0
1
171
175
-4
SEA
Despite giving up a sack-fumble in the red zone, Cousins led all quarterbacks in DYAR inside the opponents' 40-yard line, going 15-of-19 for 146 yards and three touchdowns.
3.
Matthew Stafford LAR
27/38
343
4
0
1
162
162
0
TB
Stafford was the league's top passer on third downs, completing 10-of-12 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Eight of those completions resulted in conversions, including seven plays in a row at one point.
4.
Justin Herbert LAC
26/38
281
4
0
1
151
146
5
KC
As noted last week, Herbert was the league's worst passer in the red zone both in Week 1 and then again in Week 2. Well nothing lasts forever, because he was the best red zone passer in Week 3, going 6-of-9 for 66 yards and four touchdowns (plus a 4-yard DPI) inside the Kansas City 20-yard line.
5.
Aaron Rodgers GB
23/31
261
2
0
1
149
149
0
SF
Thanks in part to a flurry of flags, Rodgers was the league's top passer on deep balls. His 13 deep throws resulted in five completions for 150 yards, three DPI fouls for 81 more yards, and only five incompletions.
6.
Kyler Murray ARI
28/34
316
0
1
0
124
122
1
JAX
Murray was at his best when throwing to his left, where he completed 12 of 15 passes for 136 yards.
7.
Tom Brady TB
41/55
432
1
0
3
105
95
10
LAR
Brady was nearly perfect attacking the middle of L.A.'s defense, going 12-of-13 for 129 yards and a touchdown.
8.
Russell Wilson SEA
23/32
298
1
0
2
102
110
-8
MIN
Most of Wilson's value came in his ability to get Seattle's offense to midfield. On his own side of the 50, he went 17-of-20 for 240 yards with one sack.
9.
Teddy Bridgewater DEN
19/25
235
0
0
2
92
86
6
NYJ
Bridgewater played well overall, but not in short yardage. He had five dropbacks with 5 yards or less to go for a first down and only picked up one conversion, going 2-of-4 for 14 yards with a sack.
10.
Dak Prescott DAL
21/26
238
3
0
4
90
123
-33
PHI
11.
Joe Burrow CIN
14/18
172
3
1
0
82
82
0
PIT
Burrow's first three passes: incompletion, 12-yard gain on third-and-18, interception. And then he caught fire, completing 10 passes in a row for 140 total yards and two of his touchdowns.
12.
Patrick Mahomes KC
27/44
260
3
2
2
70
50
20
LAC
The Chargers played a lot of deep zone schemes that limited what Kansas City could do on deep throws, but that left L.A. vulnerable to dumpoffs underneath the coverage. As a result, Mahomes had the league's worst DYAR on deep balls (1-of-8 for 28 yards with two interceptions), but the best DYAR on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (10-of-12 for 71 yards and two touchdowns).
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Derek Carr LV
26/43
386
2
1
3
64
64
0
MIA
Carr threw four passes inside the Dolphins' 20. Two were completed for touchdowns; a third was completed for a 16-yard gain on third-and-8. He also threw a pass from the 21 that resulted in a touchdown ... for Miami.
14.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
18/27
197
3
2
1
55
28
27
IND
Tannehill was a monster on throws to his left, going 7-of-9 for 102 yards and a touchdown; a 10th throw picked up 30 more yards on a DPI.
15.
Jared Goff DET
22/30
217
0
0
2
50
55
-5
BAL
How's this for a turnaround? Goff was next to last in DYAR in the first half, when he went 8-of-15 for 57 yards with a pair of sacks. But he was first in DYAR after halftime, going 14-of-15 for 160 yards, plus 28 more yards on a DPI.
16.
Lamar Jackson BAL
16/30
287
1
1
4
32
26
6
DET
Jackson's first pass down the middle was completed to Marquise Brown for an 11-yard gain on first-and-10. He threw four more passes down the middle after that; each one was incomplete.
17.
Sam Darnold CAR
23/34
304
0
0
3
32
12
20
HOU
The Panthers may already be feeling the absence of Christian McCaffrey. Darnold had the league's worst DYAR on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, going 4-of-7 for only 17 yards.
18.
Daniel Jones NYG
24/35
266
0
0
2
27
37
-10
ATL
For the second week in a row, Daniel Jones was best at something! Last week it was third-quarter passing; this week is was working out of a no-huddle, when he went 12-of-15 for 140 yards, plus two DPIs for 13 more yards.
19.
Matt Ryan ATL
27/36
243
2
0
3
17
22
-5
NYG
Ryan, Jones' counterpart on Sunday, had the league's best numbers on throws down the middle, going 10-of-13 for 111 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 5-yard DPI.
20.
Jameis Winston NO
13/21
128
2
0
3
16
24
-8
NE
The magic passing range for Winston fell 5 to 12 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He completed all seven of his passes to receivers at that distance for a total of 66 yards. Six of those completions picked up first downs, including two touchdowns; the other was a 6-yard gain on second-and-7.
21.
Baker Mayfield CLE
19/30
246
1
0
5
9
6
4
CHI
Mayfield did just fine moving the Browns into scoring range, but not much after that. Inside the Bears' 40-yard line, he went 6-of-12 for only 39 yards with one touchdown and four sacks.
22.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
25/40
257
2
1
4
5
6
-1
GB
How not to win in short-yardage: Garoppolo had five passes with 3 yards or less to go for a first down and didn't convert any of them. Four of those passes were incomplete; the other was completed for no gain on second-and-3.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Davis Mills HOU
19/27
168
1
0
4
-7
-7
0
CAR
Mills was not very effective on third/fourth downs, going 4-of-6 for 23 yards with three sacks, plus a 14-yard DPI. Including that penalty, only two of those plays resulted in a new set of downs.
24.
Jacoby Brissett MIA
32/49
215
0
0
2
-11
-11
0
LV
Brissett had the league's worst DYAR on throws to running backs, going 3-of-8 for only 9 yards.
25.
Taylor Heinicke WAS
14/24
212
2
2
1
-35
-28
-7
BUF
We already mentioned that Josh Allen led the league in DYAR on throws to wide receivers. Well Heinicke, the other quarterback in that game, was last in that department, going 6-of-15 for 84 yards with a pair of interceptions.
26.
Jalen Hurts PHI
25/39
326
2
2
2
-45
-29
-16
DAL
27.
Carson Wentz IND
20/37
194
0
0
2
-64
-64
0
TEN
Wentz was worst when inside the opponents' 20. He threw seven passes in the red zone. Six were incomplete; the other was completed for a 5-yard gain on third-and-6.
28.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
38/58
318
1
2
4
-87
-90
3
CIN
Roethlisberger threw a league-high 13 failed completions. He was also the worst passer on throws down the middle, going 10-of-16 for 73 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
 
WELCOME TO THE LAND OF HORRIBLE ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS!
 
29.
Mac Jones NE
30/51
270
1
3
2
-131
-141
10
NO
Jones was the league's worst passer from under center, going 3-of-9 for 24 yards with a sack and a pick-six. 22 of those yards came on his last under-center pass, a touchdown to Kendrick Bourne on the verge of garbage time in the fourth quarter.
30.
Trevor Lawrence JAX
22/33
219
1
2
3
-146
-142
-4
ARI
On Sunday, Lawrence had the league's worst DYAR on throws to tight ends, going 3-of-7 for 14 yards with two interceptions. Also, this doesn't affect Lawrence's DYAR, but one of those receptions was fumbled after the catch. On Monday, the Jaguars traded starting corner CJ Henderson to Carolina in exchange for tight end Dan Arnold. All of these facts may be related.
31.
Justin Fields CHI
6/20
68
0
0
9
-170
-166
-4
CLE
It took Fields nearly 40 minutes of game time to pick up a first down through the air. He only had two plays in Cleveland territory, both in the red zone: a sack on second down and a failed completion on third down. On third/fourth downs, he went 3-for-5 for 40 yards with only one first down and six, count 'em, six sacks. Only one of those completions picked up a first down, though he had another conversion on a 48-yard DPI on third-and-19.
32.
Zach Wilson NYJ
19/35
160
0
2
5
-182
-185
2
DEN
Wilson did not throw a single pass in the red zone. That's partly because of what he did on Denver's side of the 50: 5-of-11 for 17 yards (yes) with two interceptions (also yes). He was the league's worst passer on throws to the right, going 7-of-12 for all of 41 yards with an interception.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
17
95
2
3/3
21
0
73
61
12
PHI
2.
Kareem Hunt CLE
10
81
1
6/7
74
0
58
25
33
CHI
Hunt was stuffed just once, and that came with the Browns up 23-6 in the fourth quarter. He ran for four first downs, each gaining at least 11 yards, the longest a 29-yard touchdown. He had four more first downs as a receiver, the longest a gain of 23.
3.
Austin Ekeler LAC
11
55
0
6/6
52
1
52
20
33
KC
Ekeler only ran for two first downs against Kansas City with a long gain of just 11 yards, but he was stuffed only twice while gaining at least 5 yards seven times. Three of his catches also produced first downs, including an 8-yard gain on third-and-3 and a 16-yard touchdown on second-and-12.
4.
Zack Moss BUF
13
60
0
3/3
31
1
50
21
29
WAS
Moss didn't have any 10-yard runs against Washington, but he picked up four first downs while being stuffed just once. Two of his catches picked up first downs: a 17-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 7-yard touchdown on third-and-4.
5.
Alvin Kamara NO
24
89
0
3/4
29
1
39
11
28
NE
The Patriots stuffed Kamara five times and held him to four first downs and a long gain of 11 yards, but 16 of his runs gained at least 3 yards and 12 gained at least 5. He had two first downs as a receiver: an 11-yard touchdown on third-and-7 and a 9-yard gain on second-and-8.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
17
95
2
3/3
21
0
73
61
12
PHI
2.
Chris Carson SEA
12
80
1
2/2
2
0
24
35
-11
MIN
Carson, like most of the Seahawks' offensive players, did most of his damage in the first half. He only had two carries in the second half for 6 yards with negative DYAR. But all 12 of his carries gained at least 1 yard, six gained 5 yards or more, and four went for first downs, including a 30-yard touchdown.
3.
James Robinson JAX
15
88
1
6/6
46
0
27
34
-7
ARI
Robinson is the anti-Carson. In the first half, he had seven carries for 8 yards and was stuffed three times; in the second half, all eight of his carries gained at least 4 yards and five produced touchdowns, including three runs of 10 yards or more.
4.
Jonathan Taylor IND
10
64
0
1/3
8
0
24
30
-6
TEN
Six of Taylor's 10 carries produced first downs, the longest a gain of 23, while he was stuffed just once.
5.
Kareem Hunt CLE
10
81
1
6/7
74
0
58
25
33
CHI

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Javonte Williams DEN
12
29
1
3/4
33
0
-28
-33
5
NYJ
Williams did run for three first downs with a long gain of 14, but he was stuffed four times, including a lost fumble on first-and-goal from the 1. Only one of his catches, a 17-yard gain on first-and-10, resulted in a first down.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Javonte Williams DEN
12
29
1
3/4
33
0
-28
-33
5
NYJ

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mike Williams LAC
7
9
122
17.4
2
65
KC
Six of Williams' catches produced first downs, including 4- and 20-yard touchdowns and a 43-yard gain. The other was an 8-yard gain on first-and-10.
2.
Emmanuel Sanders BUF
5
6
94
18.8
2
61
WAS
Sanders gained a first down on all five of his catches, including 5- and 28-yard touchdowns and a gain of 41.
3.
Justin Jefferson MIN
9
11
118
13.1
1
59
SEA
Eight of Jefferson's nine catches produced first downs; the other was an 8-yard gain on first-and-10. That includes conversions on all three of his targets on third down.
4.
Chris Godwin TB
6
7
74
12.3
0
50
LAR
Godwin's totals include 22 DYAR rushing for his one carry, a 2-yard touchdown. Four of his catches produced first downs, including conversions on third-and-6 and fourth-and-2.
5.
Dalton Schultz DAL
6
7
80
13.3
2
45
PHI

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Jaylen Waddle MIA
12
13
58
4.8
0
-45
LV
This is probably the worst day you'll ever see for a player who caught 12 passes in 13 targets. But none of those catches gained more than 9 yards, and only one—a 7-yard gain on second-and-1—produced a first down. Waddle's average of 4.8 yards per catch is the second-worst ever for a wide receiver with at least 10 catches in a game, and that's not even accounting for the time he fumbled on a 4-yard catch on third-and-15. Finally, Waddle is the only player in Stathead's database, which goes back to 1994, to catch a pass and then be tackled for a safety.

Comments

75 comments, Last at 03 Oct 2021, 1:10am

1 To be fair to Fields, he did…

To be fair to Fields, he did have a DPI and a 7-yard scramble, giving him 8 passing plays that gained yardage - nearly as many as his sacks!

2 Another horrific runner wins

Last year I went back over a two year period and the worst runner by DYAR of the week led his team to a near .500 record, while the worst passer by week by DYAR had a streak of zero wins finally broken (by playing a QB who was near the bottom for the week).

Aaron had mentioned previously this year that he would review positional DYAR during the next off season.  I can not wait to see what he comes up with.  I think RB DYAR will prove to have little correlation with success, and even if it does, replacement backs such as what SF and Baltimore are using will show that RB DYAR can be easily replaced, whereby DYAR by any other position can not be easily replaced.

6 There's a significant number…

There's a significant number of poor plays, as measured by DYAR, which are racked up by rbs playing on teams which have 4th quarter leads. In other words, some 1 or 2 yard carries on 1st and 10, or 2nd and 8, are a lot more successful than others, merely by allowing 45 seconds to come off the clock, for a team that has a 4th quarter lead. I don't think DYAR captures this yet, but I've been out of the loop since Covid.

(edit) To add on, I've never felt rb DYAR really captures rb value very well, or more specifically, it doesn't delineate betwéen the value of different types of rbs. For example, if all you knew about NFL rbs in 2007 and 2008 was the DYAR numbers, you might conclude that Brandon Jacobs was a more valuable rb than Adrian Peterson.

 

 

 

8 I don't understand why you…

I don't understand why you would think *any* position's DYAR should necessarily be causally related with success. It's a team game: individual players have roles. Some teams use players for certain roles, others for different ones. Obviously some roles are super common now (quarterbacks), so it *basically* does. But intrinsically there's no reason.

If I calculated a punter's DYAR, for instance, it'd correlate really nicely with team failure.

26 why?

If I calculated a punter's DYAR, for instance, it'd correlate really nicely with team failure.

 

Why would it do that?  Why would punting well hurt a team?  Or why would doing poorly help a punter?  

I assume DYAR is smart enough to understand that ball placement is more important than yardage when measuring punt success.  I.e., punting 55 yards  your own 45 is worse than punting 45 yards. 

I would think every position's DYAR should correlate with success.  

29  Why would it do that?  Why…

In reply to by RickD

Why would it do that?  Why would punting well hurt a team?  Or why would doing poorly help a punter?  

Because DYAR's an accumulating stat. Punting hurts a team.

3 I should hope Zack Moss didn…

I should hope Zack Moss didn't have any 10 yard runs against Buffalo, since they would have been in practice and probably shouldn't count in his DYAR, anyway. ;)

4 Guido Merkens

Guido Merkens is one of my favorite NFL names of all time.   A real renaissance man, he played quarterback, punter, wide receiver, running back and was also a DB.

Apparently now runs a car max.   I want a Guido Merkens logo on the back of my car....

 

 

5 "Finally, Waddle is the only…

"Finally, Waddle is the only player in Stathead's database, which goes back to 1994, to catch a pass and then be tackled for a safety."

I didn't think I'd ever seen a completed pass result in a safety before. Not nearly enough is made of Miami calling a WR screen with no blockers in their own end zone. Just a debacle.

9 I don't think the play …

I don't think the play *itself* was horrible, it just wasn't executed. Brissett lofted it, so it took too long and the receiver had to adjust.

It's still a "burn this play" because they didn't think about what could go wrong, but I see what they were thinking.

14 the thing is

Watching him this last game compared to the first game, this game they gave the ball to Waddle time and time again with him flat footed. I don't care how fast he is, for him to jump, land, then start to run without blockers and somehow think he will out run that corner is an insane ask. However, the defense was giving him tons of space. If he was running a shallow slant, he'd likely have gotten ample yardage. I'm waiting to see him with Tua back. Tua pushed the ball more against New England then Miami has tried to do with Jacoby. Though, maybe the 4th quarter and overtime gave Miami coaching an idea that Jacoby can actually throw forward passes and maybe they should try that a little with him. I assume if Brady or Mahomes had Fuller, Waddle, and Parker we'd see lots of vertical passing. I don't think Waddle is the problem, I think it's the things the OCs (yes Miami has two!) are asking him to do. The dude ain't a miracle worker.  

18  I don't care how fast he is…

In reply to by johonny

 I don't care how fast he is, for him to jump, land, then start to run

You think the plan was for him to jump? I'm pretty darn sure that ball was way higher than it was supposed to be. If it were me, I would've practiced with the ball ahead of him a bit, so he could catch it with a bit of forward motion. But with an immediate turn and a quick throw right at his chest he would've definitely been out of the end zone, at least.

39 Meh, pretty much all "we're…

Meh, pretty much all "we're on the 1 yard line" plays have crappy outcomes. You literally have no time for the play to develop, at all, because of the risk of a penalty in the end zone. It's basically got to be snap, do something right away.

10 I remember a play that would…

I remember a play that would meet those requirements except the player who caught the pass was a Defender.   this was before they changed the rule to account for momentum carrying him into the end zone... he was stride for stride with a receiver on a deep ball, jumped and intercepted inside the 5 and landed in the end zone with the receiver where he was downed.

15 Was an interception or a…

Was it an interception or a fumble you're referring to?  I thought the rule was changed after this play, where a Raiders defender jumped on a fumble, but his momentum on a rain-soaked field made him slide into the endzone: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjezcIU_Xpw

Instead of a game-ending fumble that would have won it for a the Raiders, the Seahawks were awarded a safety, which gave them the ball back and allowed them to drive for the game-winning touchdown.  I remember thinking it was crazy at the time, and the Raiders totally deserved to win.

17 Interceptions aren't…

Interceptions aren't completions, but there have been 8 (ignoring plays where the interceptor fumbled) interception->safeties in NFL history.  The last was in 2009.

Most of the others came before the momentum exception was a thing.  Full list here.

41 semantics

The text used in the article was "catch", not "complete".   An interception does involve someone catching a ball.

 

56 In the 2011 Thursday night…

In the 2011 Thursday night game between Denver and the Jets, the Broncos started their last drive at the 5 yard line.  Tebow threw a pass to Eddie Royal and safety Jim Leonhardt almost tackled him for a safety, but Royal escaped him and got to the 13 yard line.  The Broncos went on to score with under a minute left to win the game.  If Leonhardt makes the tackle, the Jets probably win and Tebow probably doesn't make the playoffs.  The Jets's last game against Miami becomes a lot more important (they finished a game behind 6 seed Cinci, and would have created a three way tie for 9-7).  Goddamn miracles.

11 If Murray was 28/34 and was…

If Murray was 28/34 and was at his best throwing to the left (12/15 80%) then he was at his worst the rest of the time (16 for 19  84%) ?

12 Regarding Fields

I watched the game.  The game plan if one could call it a plan was designed Fields to fail.  Helped along by Peters barely getting out of his stance at the snap on multiple plays.  I know Garrett is a good player but Peters made him look X-Men fast.  Peters played like if he touched a defenders back the rusher had to pull up

 

It’s impossible to overstate how poorly the Bears line played   

 

13 Sending Foles out to take a…

In reply to by big10freak

Sending Foles out to take a bludgeoning probably would have been a better path to take. Hard to identify what the hell is happening in Chicago right now. 

69 This is probably football correct...

...but refusing to play Fields would have been another knife in the heart of Nagy's reputation, which really can't take any more.

But that's one part of the overall problem in Chicago. Both Nagy (and Pace) are making (for lack of a better word) political decisions rather than football ones. Because they haven't done well enough to justify their jobs, so they are trying to do what they can to avoid criticism instead of what is most likely to work.

This of course leads to more criticism, but they've kept their jobs so far.

I really hope they're both fired

20 The game plan if one could…

The game plan if one could call it a plan was designed Fields to fail. 

don't understand that statement. There were a bunch of plays I saw Fields run with Ohio State. Often. He just ran a bunch of them wrong, because, well, NFL players are faster. The doofy "bounce a pass off of Jason Peters's back," for instance, was a bog-standard zone read+pass option/RPO/whatever you want to call it. Watch the linebacker, if he crashes, pass it to the receiver who just filled the spot he vacated. If he stays home, hand it off. He must've run this play a million times before in practice/college/etc. Linebacker starts to crash, Fields pulls the ball in too quickly, linebacker stops, and Fields is screwed: his simple pass option is covered, and he's left holding the ball.

I just really don't understand the "if the Bears/Nagy/etc. had done X, Fields would've been better!" The Bears are a bad offense. Bad line, poorly constructed set of receivers. Most of the plays seemed simple and straightforward, but Fields just made mistakes or was a touch slow. I just don't understand what people expected

Still don't know what to expect from Fields long term (same thing I said prior to the draft), because I don't know how he'll react/grow/develop to not having a heavy talent advantage.

23 It's not just the line,…

It's not just the line, either. The receiving group's just super-weird. Robinson's a great WR for challenging corners and getting open, but he's not a speed/quickness guy. They don't have a receiving RB (they do have Cohen, but, um, coming off an ACL, you don't count on quickness), and they don't have a size-mismatch tight end (I really don't like Kmet, period).

I'd say about a third of the sacks were his fault (Peters was just bad - keeping him is pointless), and the common thread on most of the plays was "a touch slow" or "wrong decision," both of which are really variations on the same theme. But hell, even if he had done everything right, I doubt anything would've changed. In a good fraction of the third down plays, for instance, the "right" decision still never would've gained the first because of the players they have.

42 I agree with the general…

I agree with the general sentiment. Disclaimer, I didn't watch the whole game, but the Eagles OL last night was at least as bad as the Bears' and yet Hurts did a heck of a job making something out of it. I know he's got one more year of experience, but Fields was very hesitant and he couldn't make the RPOs or the rollouts work, or pretty much anything. But his career still has a long way to go, I wouldn't start worrying more than the usual yet.

By the way, Pat, none of my business but IMO you use too many italics. Kind of dilutes the effect.

52 I'm not saying he was…

I'm not saying he was blameless on the others, it's just that the protection screwed up so bad on those that he had no chance. When a play's over and the left tackle's looking around never having actually touched anyone, you've got to pin that on the protection.

Plus... he had nine sacks. A third of 'em is still three.

In fact, just to break them down:

  • Sack 1: Protection's fault. The DEs are on top of Fields in a little over one second, and there was play action as well. Fields should've reacted quicker, yeah - what actually happened looked really bad (backwards flailing, etc.) but put the best QB in the league in there and their reaction would've been "crumple into a ball."
  • Sack 2: Protection's fault. Again, would've been nice for Fields to have better awareness, but  this is the one where Peters literally never touches anyone other than his own guy. Plus, even if Fields had seen the free blitzer and gotten the ball off faster, the tight end's block was so bad he was toast anyway. I don't think this was an option play - if it was, Fields made the wrong choice (so it'd be his fault).
  • Sack 3: Fields. It's 3rd and 14. You can't think that long. Hops in place 3 times. Gotta think faster on that. Buckets of room to move.
  • Sack 4: Fields, so, so much. No one's open, so he starts taking off, and runs... in front of his blockers. Right into the guy. WTF, dude. Turn right and he's got the first.
  • Sack 5: Protection's fault. Fields isn't reacting fast enough (again) but the right tackle gets turned so bad the DE's hand is totally open. Probably wouldn't've mattered what Fields did. Guy could've just grabbed him if he tried to run.
  • Sack 6: This one's just an impressive play by Garrett. I don't blame Fields for not chucking the ball away, he had a fair amount of room to run.
  • Sack 7: Fields. Guy just slipped.
  • Sack 8: Protection, or Garrett. Fields needed to step up, absolutely, but Garrett just beat Peters like a rag doll.
  • Sack 9: Protection. Garrett isn't even slowed by Peters at all. He hits Fields literally at the top of his drop. Fields actually manages to break free, but by then there are - I'm not kidding - two Bears tackles crumpled on the ground and 5 Browns defenders completely free to take him down. You have to blame Peters on this sack. He's not only responsible for Garrett but he took out the RT, freeing the guy who actually took Fields down! 

Like I said, a third. Now, if the protection had been better, Fields might've still been responsible for like, 5 sacks. But you put a typical NFL QB back there and they're still getting sacked 6 times. (Edit: Note that on Sack 2, Fields absolutely should've gone after the route across the middle, but there's a good chance if he had tried, he would've gotten his arm hit on the throw. That's another "too slow" case, but with bad protection sometimes that's helpful.) 

Also if you haven't watched that last sack in slow motion, you really, really need to. Not often you get to see the left tackle take out the right tackle.

68 I think this is an argument…

I think this is an argument that the issue is bad coaching. You have a terrible offensive line versus a solid defensive line. Nothing about that surprised even the casual fan. Good coaches respond by employing a mix of techniques: keep extra players in protection, chip, 3 step drops, running the ball, screen passes, etc. With Fields, you can add designed QB runs to this list since he’s good at it.
 

Very few of these tactics were employed and very infrequently. They would have lost badly no matter what they did - they were just overmatched. But there was an opportunity to at least build some confidence in your quarterback and instead they set him up to “see ghosts” by getting him obliterated. I mean, 14 RB touches in 42 plays? Really? Fields wasn’t going to help himself as a 1st start rookie - that’s why the coaches needed to help him. 

73 Good coaches respond by…

Good coaches respond by employing a mix of techniques: keep extra players in protection, chip, 3 step drops, running the ball, screen passes,

Mostly agree, although with the Bears it's a bit weird. You're right: if you look you see Peters getting very little help: but Kmet's blocking is... not good, and none of the RBs would be anything except fun hurdles for the DEs. And they do not have the receivers for quick slants or screens. Like, not at all. I don't know why they didn't try to replace Tarik Cohen.

Personally I put far more blame on Pace than Nagy for that, but definitely Nagy deserves blame, too. I think the problem with Nagy is that he's too wedded to Pace's idea of the team, which is just totally dysfunctional and really simplistic. If it were me, I would've been doing chips/extra guys too, and throwing extra linemen out there if the guys kept blocking as bad as they were.

With Fields, you can add designed QB runs to this list since he’s good at it.

I mean, he's not that much of a designed runner. He's not like Haskins was in college. Yeah, he had designed runs, but most of his runs were improvisational when things started to break down. And a lot of the problem here is that things just broke down way too fast.

70 I think this is right

I am coming down a bit from my "stop blaming Fields" stuff from Monday...I think there's a fair amount of evidence that he was a bit slow processing.

What there wasn't, IMO, is any evidence that Fields being a faster processor would have resulted in successful plays. Different kinds of failures, perhaps, and maybe slightly better failures. But still, I think if Fields works faster he's still throwing incompletes to covered receivers or short passes that don't get or set up first downs.

I've seen that kind of QB offense in Chicago before--the conservative, useless completions offense--and I hate it. So I guess I prefer to see a guy hunting for bigger, better completions, even if it leads to sacks, as it did on Sunday. But I can't deny that Fields needs to be better.

74  So I guess I prefer to see…

 So I guess I prefer to see a guy hunting for bigger, better completions,

Yeah, that's not what was going on. He wasn't hunting for better plays, he wasn't positive about what he was seeing. It's easy enough to tell where he's looking, and you can clearly see his eyes stick there too long before throwing. That's why a bunch of the plays are tightly contested - he waits a touch too long to throw, and the DBs have time to close on it.

I totally agree that Fields being faster wouldn't've done much different in terms of results. That's what I was trying to say above, why I put most of the blame on the line. Just would've been different failures. There's a play where there's an unblocked delayed blitzer (who Peters should've picked up IMHO, but whatever) where people have criticized that Fields had a throw he had to make.

And they're right, he's definitely late - but even if he had made the decision faster, the TE's block was such garbage that his arm likely would've gotten hit on the throw. So in some sense, Fields being slow was actually helpful that game.

16 The Dallas O-line put on an…

The Dallas O-line put on an exhibition of run blocking last night (against a normally good defensive front). Pollard must also have accumulated decent DYAR on his 11 carries for 60 yards.

19 Random “I wonder”

I wonder how often Tom Brady has had more rushing DYAR than everyone ahead of him that week in total DYAR. Also, it looks like he was tied for fourth this week in rushing DYAR among QBs. 
 

TB1K there, striking fear into the hearts of defences, demanding a spy in case he takes off with the speed and agility of a Clydesdale and the raw power of a gazelle. 

22 There are a lot of things

There are a lot of things Brady has done that I thought I would never see , and having more rushing DYAR than Lamar Jackson in a week is one of them.

24 Hat tip to Pat, who pointed…

Hat tip to Pat, who pointed out that you have to go back to 1999 when the league produced a set of first round rookies who played this badly all at once.

The game has changed dramatically since then as it has never been easier to at least produce completions for easy yards. As chase Stuart noted on Twitter, the anya of non rookies is at an all time high. The rookies are so bad that it reflects a different era of football.

I'm not sure it means anything overall right now. BUT, it is fun to speculate what it means if one or more of these players does not improve much, if at all and you find yourself in the Cardinals situation with Josh Rosen. 

25 So... I said that, because…

So... I said that, because it's also the last time the league had 5 QBs drafted in the top half of the first round.

The 2018 class had 5 in the full first round, but Jackson having success wasn't surprising, he was drafted by a team that just went 9-7. Other than that, Darnold, Rosen, and Allen similarly were bad. The main difference was Mayfield, who played really well as a rookie but regressed in year 2 (which is not normal). I don't really see this year as much different if you just kinda smush/rearrange Mayfield's first two years (again, leaving out Jackson - he's like Lance, who we can't see).

The rookies are so bad that it reflects a different era of football.

I think the rookies being bad just reflects that rookie QBs are usually bad, and there's a lot of 'em this year. There's a reason Bill Belichick's teams utterly demolish rookies.

32 Rookies are usually bad,…

Rookies are usually bad, sure, and this year seems worse than normal, no doubt.

How come nobody mentions how weird 2020 was when discussing this? I know there was CFB last year, but wasn't it gunked up pretty badly, with many fewer games played?

Maybe this year's rookie crop isn't extraordinarily bad, maybe they're just a further half-year behind most rookie classes. Well, and three of them are on jac/chi/nyj.

34 Trade Jimmy to the Dolphins…

Trade Jimmy to the Dolphins for a 2nd that becomes a 1st if they make the playoffs and he plays 75% of the downs. He is a better version of Tua or Jacoby right now and that offense is very vertically challenged by design. Jimmy has become worse the more he learns the Shanahan offense and defenses are now teeing off on the offense because it only exists within 5 yards of the line outside the numbers and inside the 15 yards inside the numbers. If Jimmy were as protective of the football as an Alex Smith this could probably work this season. Jimmy needs a simple offense to thrive and looks like a huge upgrade in the Miami QB room. The 49ers have lost the turnover battle in 2 games this year and are still 2-1 with a last second loss to 13-3 team from last year. Outside of the injury ravaged positions, CB and RB, QB is the worst position on the team. 

Will Trey be bad like all the other rookie QBs? Probably. But he has the best surrounding cast of the bunch by a mile, the best offensive line, and the best offensive play caller too. Get him out there against Seattle and surprise them. The guy has 2 TDs in 6 plays this season because he is so different from Jimmy regarding the defensive game plan. That TD pass against Detroit was so open because the entire defense bit on Trey running. Trey's speed to the edge and a great block by Trent Williams made that 4th down TD run happen against the Packers. Trey's running game impact would open up that part of the offense while the RB position gets healthier because of the QB run threat alone. Lance's arm immediately makes defenses have to worry about deep shots and intermediate passes outside the numbers even if he stays inaccurate on them. This roster and coaching staff could ride Josh Allen rookie level production from Lance to the WC.

Then there is the small significant upside chance that Lance comes in and puts up a Cam Newton/Russell Wilson/RG3 rookie performance and the team actually gets better. If the 49ers can find a good trade value after Jimmy's above average start they have to pull the trigger and recoup some lost trade value from the Lance trade up. 

37 This is why I was down on…

This is why I was down on the 49ers and why my friends gave me angry looks when I suggested they were a fringe playoff team maybe. Because as soon as the team went on a minor skid, people would be clamoring for Jimmy G's head. 

Imagine if the 49ers followed through on your suggestion and Lance plays abysmally and they lose to the Seahawks. Well, now you are 2-2 with a division loss and you have opened pandoras box where you really can't go back to Jimmy G and then your season as a contender is basically over.

Sure, Lance may end up being much better than that, but its a downside risk you don't have with Jimmy G that you do have with Lance. Right now, with Jimmy G playing exactly like this, the 49ers are still a threat for the division and who knows what else. I just can't see the team making that decision unless Jimmy G starts playing a lot worse or the 49ers find themselves with enough losses where it makes sense to go that way. 

48 Indeed

It wasn't Jimmy's fault that the 49er defense decided to leave Davante Adams uncovered on the last drive.  Ye gods!  Why do so many defenses give up the middle routes in the last minute?  It shouldn't be that easy to get 42 yards in 15 seconds.  If it's that easy late in the game, why isn't it that easy earlier in the game?

51 Prevent defense, baby. Got…

In reply to by RickD

Prevent defense, baby. Got to make sure you don't give up that long touchdown. This is obviously the most important consideration when the other team has the ball on the last possession of the game and the score is within 3.

54 It's just a different kind…

It's just a different kind of crappy clock management, I suspect; overestimating how long it will take for the opposing offense to get lined up for a spike after a completion in the middle of the field. If the Packers still had a timeout left, my guess is that they would not have been that soft.

61 I think Fred Warner should…

I think Fred Warner should have been in position to contest Rodgers' first completion on that drive - and he almost did - but he took a step toward Aaron Jones releasing into the flat before realizing he needed to keep dropping deep and, well, the throw was perfect. The second completion definitely looked like egregiously soft coverage.

59 Moving on from Jimmy is…

Moving on from Jimmy is predicated on getting good trade value in return while his stock is still high. This defense is worse than 2019 by a lot because of the secondary. The offensive line seems a bit better than 2019. This looks like an 11 win team at best if everything goes right and the defense starts generating TOs at even an average rate. Kyle was able to scheme that into a competitive game in the last 40 minutes of the football game with some of the most creative play calls I have ever seen. If the 49ers go out and pound the Seahawks and Jimmy YACs his way to something like 300 yards and 4 tds, John Lynch should be waiting for phone calls to sell high.

60 I know what you're saying…

I know what you're saying about the downside risk of Lance - and the 49ers definitely came into this season thinking they were going to contend for the division - but I think we're also finding out that the upside of sticking with Garoppolo isn't what they hoped it would be.

Through 3 weeks, Garoppolo appears to be playing around the level he did in 2019, when he was something like the 10th to 15th most productive QB in the league. The problem is that the 49ers don't have anywhere near the defense that they did that season. Their next two games are in the division vs Seattle and at Arizona before their bye week. If Jimmy doesn't raise his level of play from here, and especially if they drop one or both of those games (particularly the Arizona game) and their division odds fall to something like 10%, I think that's the signal to hand the keys to Lance and use the bye week to start assembling the new offensive playbook.

67  If Jimmy doesn't raise his…

 If Jimmy doesn't raise his level of play from here, and especially if they drop one or both of those games (particularly the Arizona game) and their division odds fall to something like 10%, I think that's the signal to hand the keys to Lance and use the bye week to start assembling the new offensive playbook.

I don't really see the reasoning here. That's a tough division to win, but the 49ers really should be able to pull off a wildcard spot. You've got three, and I think realistically there are only 5 teams competing for it (which five, not sure yet). And really... I think the only actual threats to them on their entire schedule are the division teams and the Titans. I think if they pull off even one or two wins in division, they've got a wildcard spot locked up. And with the Rams game as week 18, it's entirely possible that a combination of offensive decline or possibly resting starters will make that a lot more tractable.

It'd be nice to win the division, sure, but good teams usually improve on defense over the year (partially since it gets easier!), so just getting into the playoffs is a good idea for a team with strong defensive players, which they have.

71 I just think the upside to…

I just think the upside to sticking with Jimmy for the whole season, or maybe even just 2/3 of the season, would have been that you avoid the "learning experience" type of games from the rookie QB that can lose you games at the margin that are important to staying in contention for the division and the #1 seed. I might be too down on them too early, but it just looks to me like we might find out by the end of Week 5 that the 49ers are definitely on the outside looking in on the division and conference race. If that's how things fall, I think it's worth chasing the upside you might be able to get from the rookie QB you traded the farm to move up to draft.

I'm also not in love with being a wild card team in the new system where your reward for potentially winning a first round game on the road is likely to have to travel to face the lone rested #1 seed. So if your division odds have already fallen quite low, go for the bold move. I also like the potential of using the bye week to prepare Lance and then getting Colts and Bears as the first two games coming out of the bye.

72   I'm also not in love with…

 

I'm also not in love with being a wild card team in the new system where your reward for potentially winning a first round game on the road is likely to have to travel to face the lone rested #1 seed. 

Eh. Like I said, offenses taper over the year, and obviously San Francisco has a ton of talent at defense. If they're facing the Rams or Tampa in that game, I wouldn't count them out.

But I do agree that basically the next two weeks should bring things into focus. San Francisco doesn't have to win either of them, but if they're blown out in both games, yeah, they're likely done.

36 Just as everyone expected,…

Just as everyone expected, the Houston Texans drafted the best rookie QB of 2021 by getting Davis Mills in the 3rd round!

44 Honestly, I came away with…

Honestly, I came away with the conclusion that there was some serious value to be had in this years QB class after the top 5. Teams often go for a sort of first round or not at all strategy with QBs, sometimes even top 10 or never. Without the top 5 guys, Mills, Ehrlinger, Mond, and others would probably have been drafted in the first round by a desperate team.

Their profiles look very promising, Mills with the fantastic talent but massive injury history at Stanford. Mond with the natural talent but mistake prone play. Ehrlinger having everything but a strong arm. Kyle Trask could probably have been a legitimate first round pick. 

It would not surprise me if one of them turns out to be a very legitimate starting NFL QB, with the money currently on Mills after his decent start.

43 I'm surprised Fields didn't…

I'm surprised Fields didn't have a lower DYAR total and particularly surprised he was above Wilson. I guess not having an INT saved him from a historically bad day.

53 Feedback

I should hope Zack Moss didn't have any 10 yard runs against Buffalo, since they would have been in practice and probably shouldn't count in his DYAR, anyway. ;)

Heh. Fixed!

1987 replacement player—He really shouldn't be on this list.

Merkens played 108 NFL games. He was more than just a replacement player.

If Murray was 28/34 and was at his best throwing to the left (12/15 80%) then he was at his worst the rest of the time (16 for 19  84%) ?

Murray had seven first downs on throws to his left, three to his right, and three (and an interception) on throws down the middle. I should have added that.

The Dallas O-line put on an exhibition of run blocking last night (against a normally good defensive front). Pollard must also have accumulated decent DYAR on his 11 carries for 60 yards.

18 rushing DYAR, so he was in the top 10.

There are a lot of things Brady has done that I thought I would never see , and having more rushing DYAR than Lamar Jackson in a week is one of them.

There were a few comments about Brady's rushing, so I'll just add that Brady has finished in the top 10 in rushing DYAR five times, and in the top 20 eight times. QB sneaks are very valuable plays!

75 Can Justin Fields do anything right?

Looking at the playoff odds report, and the 10 % DAVE downgrade given to the Bears for the Andy Dalton injury, it would appear to be a resounding no.

Now FO owes us an article as to the benefits of having Andy Dalton as the starting QB.  I imagine that will be a very short article.