QR Week 5: Tom Brady Passes Peyton Manning in Career DYAR

October 11, 2021, 11:59 pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Those of you who have been reading Football Outsiders for a decade or more may remember some of the staples of our early days, such as Catholic Match Girl, Robopunter, and irrational arguments about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Well, it's time to head back to the halcyon days of flip phones and Blu-ray discs, because after a big game against the Dolphins on Sunday, Brady has officially passed Manning to become the all-time leader in regular-season passing DYAR.

Newcomers may not realize just how much the Brady-Manning discourse used to dominate the site. We would publish an article on the Falcons defense or something and within hours the ensuing discussion thread would be filled with furious bickering about whether the Patriots or Colts had the superior quarterback. It got to the point where we had to create three separate threads for Brady-Manning discourse just so comments under other stories would stay on topic.

The arguments started out pretty simple: Manning had better passing stats, while Brady had more playoff wins and championships. That changed when Randy Moss and then Rob Gronkowski arrived in New England; Brady topped Manning in passing DYAR every year from 2007 to 2012 (except 2008, when he threw only 11 passes before tearing his ACL and going down for the year). Brady's numbers moderately dropped off at that point while Manning enjoyed a career resurgence in Denver; his 2,475 DYAR in 2013 were a career high. In 2015, his final season, Manning had god-awful numbers, but the Broncos won the Super Bowl anyway.

Manning retired after the championship win over Carolina shortly before turning 40. He left the game with two championship rings and a bevy of passing records, including 26,290 passing DYAR. Brady was in second place at that point with a total of 19,759 DYAR, but at age 38 himself, he seemed unlikely to get much closer. He'd just have to be content with his four Super Bowl rings.

Then a funny thing happened: Brady just kept going, topping 1,000 DYAR four times in the next five years. Even in 2019, his last year in New England when many observers thought he was done, his total of 550 DYAR ranked 16th—by definition, still better than half the starters in the league. Then he nearly tripled that total the next season in Tampa Bay, finishing third with over 1,500 DYAR. To recap: from their age-39 seasons onwards, Manning lost 326 DYAR, while Brady has gained over 6,500 DYAR (and won three more rings, if you care about that sort of thing).

It looked inevitable, then, that Brady would overtake Manning at some point in the 2021 season, and in fact it only took him five games. After finishing in the top 15 in Quick Reads in each of the first four weeks of the season, Brady destroyed the Dolphins on Sunday, throwing for over 400 yards and five touchdowns without an interception and only two sacks. Add in his one carry—a 13-yard scramble on second-and-10—and Brady didn't just have the best game of any quarterback in Week 5, but the best so far this year. It was so good, in fact, that it pushed Brady ahead of Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and all those other guys in their twenties and thirties to the top spot in our full-season rankings with 599 passing DYAR. Prorate that out to 17 games and you get a total of 2,037 DYAR, which would be the second-best of his career behind only the 2,674 DYAR he had in 2007, a mark that remains the best season we have ever measured. At an age when nearly every other quarterback has long since retired (George Blanda and Steve DeBerg are the only older players to ever throw a touchdown pass), Brady is not just surviving, not just thriving, but dominating.

Brady's absurd longevity really stands out when you compare his seasons to Manning's at the same age. Manning was two years younger in his first year as a starter and had the better DYAR in each age in their twenties. Brady had the better DYAR at age 30 (his monster 2007 season) and the two went back and forth for most of that decade. But Manning's last good year as a quarterback came at age 38. Brady has now lasted six years longer as a productive starter. And this is Peyton Manning we're talking about. The man retired as the all-time record-holder in yards and touchdowns. He had a very, very long career, but it ended much, much earlier than Brady's. (The following chart shows Brady's prorated data for 2021.)

Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning DYAR by Age

That leaves us with this table, with Brady first, Manning second, and Drew Brees third. Ben Roethlisberger is the second-leading active player in seventh place, and he'll probably retire before Brady does.

Top 20 QBs, Total Passing DYAR, 1983-2021
Name	G	Cmp%	Avg.	TD	Int	Sk	DYAR	DYAR/G
Tom Brady	306	64.0%	7.48	596	193	530	26,341	86.1
Peyton Manning	266	65.3%	7.67	539	251	303	26,290	98.8
Drew Brees	287	67.7%	7.62	571	243	420	23,692	82.6
Dan Marino	242	59.4%	7.34	420	252	270	19,503	80.6
Philip Rivers	244	64.9%	7.80	421	209	464	15,299	62.7
Brett Favre	302	62.0%	7.06	508	336	525	14,898	49.3
Ben Roethlisberger	238	64.4%	7.67	402	205	527	14,445	60.7
Aaron Rodgers	202	65.1%	7.78	422	92	478	14,314	70.9
Matt Ryan	210	65.5%	7.47	357	161	418	13,604	64.8
Joe Montana	136	63.3%	7.62	221	107	252	10,396	76.4
Steve Young	169	64.3%	7.98	232	107	358	10,266	60.7
John Elway	234	56.9%	7.10	300	226	516	9,418	40.2
Warren Moon	208	58.4%	7.23	291	233	458	9,013	43.3
Carson Palmer	182	62.5%	7.33	294	187	340	8,963	49.2
Tony Romo	156	65.3%	7.89	248	117	248	8,850	56.7
Matthew Stafford	170	62.8%	7.30	294	147	389	7,867	46.3
Jim Everett	158	57.7%	7.08	203	175	257	7,819	49.5
Troy Aikman	165	61.5%	6.99	165	141	259	7,585	46.0
Russell Wilson	149	65.2%	7.88	277	82	407	7,427	49.8
Boomer Esiason	187	57.0%	7.29	247	184	318	7,180	38.4
Through Week 5, 2021

So does that mean that Tom Brady is, officially, Football Outsiders' choice as the best quarterback ever? Not necessarily. You could still argue that Manning had more elite seasons. Manning led the league in passing DYAR six times, finishing in the top three 13 times, and the top five 14 times. For Brady, not counting 2021, those numbers are five (behind only Manning), nine (behind Manning and Dan Marino), and 12 (tied with Brees behind Manning). Brady, meanwhile, has seven ranked seasons outside the top five; Manning only had three. (Eli Manning, whose career is integral to the stories of both Brady and his brother, is the all-time leader with 15 seasons ranked outside the top five.) As the table shows, Brady also trails Manning in DYAR per game.

If you go by DVOA, Brady's career average of 24.2% trails that of both Manning (29.9%) and Joe Montana (25.1%). It is also far behind the 33.1% of Patrick Mahomes, though Mahomes has yet to amass 2,000 pass plays in his career. Montana's name brings up an interesting point: we only have DYAR/DVOA data back to 1983, which means we're missing his first three seasons as a starter … and in those three seasons, Montana led the league in completion percentage twice and touchdowns once. Also, we have no data yet on Roger Staubach, Fran Tarkenton, Johnny Unitas, or any of the other pre-Reagan administration quarterbacks who could make a claim for being the best ever. Even at Football Outsiders, we believe that all numbers need context.

That said, we do believe in our numbers. And in this particular number, Brady has finally arrived in the No. 1 spot.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Tom Brady	TB	30/40	411	5	0	2	233	228	5	MIA
The funny thing about Brady's day is that his numbers were great even though he was not terribly effective on deep balls (3-of-9 for 79 yards). However, he was nearly perfect on throws to receivers within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (23-of-25 for 271 yards and three touchdowns, plus a 7-yard DPI). He was also the league's top passer on throws down the middle, going 10-of-15 for 111 yards and three scores, plus that 7-yard DPI. Brady's success rate this week was 70%; the only other qualifying quarterback above 60% was Mike Glennon, of all people.
2.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	37/43	442	4	0	2	221	230	-9	IND
This was the second-best game a quarterback has had all year.
3.	Justin Herbert	LAC	26/43	398	4	0	2	187	165	22	CLE
This was the third-best game a quarterback has had all year. Herbert led all quarterbacks in fourth-quarter/overtime DYAR, going 12-of-18 for 209 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 33-yard DPI.
4.	Matt Ryan	ATL	33/45	342	2	0	0	137	137	0	NYJ
The Falcons quarterback was the NFL's top passer on throws to tight ends. He threw 19 balls to Kyle Pitts, Hayden Hurst, and Lee Smith: two incompletions, 16 completions for 189 yards and two touchdowns, and a DPI for 8 yards.
5.	Josh Allen	BUF	16/26	315	3	0	0	120	107	14	KC
Allen was nearly perfect on deep balls, going 5-of-6 for 213 yards and two touchdowns. He completed each of his first five deep balls; the incompletion came with Buffalo up 31-13 in the third quarter.
6.	Davis Mills	HOU	21/29	312	3	0	3	117	115	1	NE
If I asked you to name the top passer on third/fourth down this week, how many names would you have guessed before getting to Davis Mills? Twenty? Thirty? Regardless, Mills was the man, converting each of his first five dropbacks on third/fourth down (including two touchdowns) and eight of his 15 opportunities on the day. He also gets a smidgen of credit for turning third-and-forever into fourth-and-short, picking up 16 yards on third-and-17 and 13 yards on third-and-15. His total numbers: 12-of-13 for 209 yards with one sack, plus a 10-yard DPI. Now try to name the worst passer on third/fourth downs, because that will probably take you 20-some guesses too.
7.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	15/25	253	2	0	1	114	114	0	DEN
Roethlisberger wasn't great on Denver's side fo the field, but he excelled at getting the Steelers to the 50, going 13-of-16 for 232 yards with a touchdown and a sack-fumble in Pittsburgh territory. His average completion gained a league-best 10.0 yards after the catch.
8.	Carson Wentz	IND	25/35	402	2	0	2	113	118	-5	BAL
9.	Baker Mayfield	CLE	23/31	305	2	0	1	98	101	-3	LAC
Cleveland's signal-caller had similar splits to Roethlisberger. He had some struggles inside the opponent's 40-yard line, but was first in DYAR in the rest of the field, going 16-of-21 for 253 yards and a touchdown.
10.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	27/38	344	2	1	2	77	77	0	CIN
Rodgers was one of three quarterbacks who threw a league-high nine failed completions. He was still the top passer in football on passes from under center, going 10-of-12 for 146 yards with one touchdown and one sack.
11.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	25/37	365	1	1	1	58	58	0	SEA
The Seahawks kept Stafford in check in the first half, not so much in the second. That's especially true in the third quarter, when he led all passers in DYAR, going 8-of-12 for 163 yards and a touchdown.
12.	Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	24/38	288	2	1	2	54	47	6	PIT
It was not a good day in the red zone for Bridgewater, who went 3-of-8 for 14 yards with one touchdown, one interception, and one sack inside the Pittsburgh 20. His average completion gained a league-worst 2.6 yards after the catch.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	33/54	272	2	2	2	43	24	19	BUF
If I asked you to name the worst passer on third/fourth down this week, how many names would you have guessed before getting to Patrick Mahomes? Twenty? Thirty? And yet Mahomes it was, as he went 4-of-9 for 31 yards with a pick-six and only two conversions. If you're surprised Mahomes is this high in the rankings, keep in mind he was playing against a Bills defense that has been ungodly great so far this season. Mahomes gains—you might want to sit down for this—ONE-HUNDRED AND NINE DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Nobody else gained even 40.
14.	Mac Jones	NE	23/29	231	1	1	1	41	42	0	HOU
Good news: Jones was perfect on throws to his running backs, completing all four of his throws. Bad news: those four completions were a 3-yard gain on second-and-13, a 3-yard gain on third-and-10, a 3-yard loss on second-and-9, and a 3-yard gain on second-and-21.
15.	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	14/22	197	1	0	3	38	27	11	JAX
Tannehill started off pretty hot, going 8-of-11 for 123 yards, plus an 8-yard DPI. The last of those completions was a 14-yard touchdown to MyCole Pruitt in the second quarter. His second half got off to a good start too, with back-to-back completions for first downs, but he failed to pick up a single first down after that, going 3-of-6 for 22 yards and a pair of sacks. Tannehill loses a league-high 36 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
16.	Geno Smith	SEA	10/17	131	1	1	0	37	31	6	LAR
It's one of the rarest events in the annals of Quick Reads: an appearance by Seattle's backup quarterback. Smith is the first Seahawks quarterback not named Russell Wilson to qualify for our tables since Trevone Boykin made a second-half relief appearance in a blowout win over San Francisco in Week 3 of 2016. He is the first non-Wilson Seahawks player to throw a touchdown pass since Doug Baldwin in Week 11 of that same year. Apparently, though, we are going to see a lot more of Geno until at least November.
17.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	23/33	273	1	1	2	36	28	8	TEN
Lawrence did not have a good day throwing to his right, going 5-of-8 for 51 yards with only one first down. Also, this is not his fault and does not affect his DYAR, but one of those completions was fumbled away and recovered by Tennessee and returned for a Titans touchdown.
18.	Russell Wilson	SEA	11/16	152	1	1	2	21	18	4	LAR
Wilson ended this game in a slump even before the hit that injured his finger. His last first down came on his first throw of the third quarter; after that he went 2-of-4 for 6 yards with a pair of sacks.
19.	Dak Prescott	DAL	22/32	302	3	1	2	18	36	-18	NYG
Prescott was the league's worst passer in the first quarter, when he went 3-of-8 for 20 yards with an interception. And that's not even counting his lost fumble on a goal-to-go aborted snap, which counts as a running play.
20.	Kyler Murray	ARI	22/31	239	1	0	2	17	50	-32	SF
Yes, that is -32 rushing DYAR for Murray. Our stats have him down for four running plays: an aborted snap, recovered for no gain; another aborted snap, recovered for a loss of 5; a 2-yard loss on first-and-10; and a 10-yard gain on second-and-8.
21.	Jameis Winston	NO	15/30	279	4	1	2	14	14	-1	WAS
On only two completions, Winston was the week's best passer in the red zone. It helps that those two completions were a 12-yard touchdown on third-and-7 and a 19-yard touchdown on second-and-8. He only threw one other red zone pass; it was incomplete, and he threw one of his touchdowns on the next play.
22.	Mike Glennon	NYG	16/25	196	1	2	0	13	33	-21	DAL
All but one of Glennon's passes came in the second half. And he was mostly really good in the second half, except for his two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. If you take away interceptions, only Justin Herbert had more DYAR than Glennon after halftime this week.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Daniel Jones	NYG	5/13	98	0	0	0	9	16	-7	DAL
Jones was not really good, throwing incomplete on each of his first six passes. His success rate of 31% was worst among qualifying quarterbacks this week. In a related note, his average pass was thrown to receivers 14.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, most in the league. Nearly all of his passes were thrown to the right. He only threw one pass to the left (a 28-yard gain to Kadarius Toney) and two down the middle (one incompletion, one 18-yard gain to Evan Engram).
24.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	25/33	275	1	1	2	6	3	3	DET
Cousins had the worst DYAR on throws down the middle, going 6-of-9 for 59 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
25.	Jacoby Brissett	MIA	27/39	275	2	1	3	-2	-2	0	TB
It was quite a turnaround for Brissett, who had the NFL's best DYAR in the first quarter (8-of-10 for 119 yards with a touchdown, a sack, and a 12-yard DPI) to its worst DYAR in the fourth (4-of-9 for 37 yards with a sack and an interception.
26.	Justin Fields	CHI	12/19	111	1	0	2	-6	17	-23	LV
Officially, Fields did not complete a deep pass, going 0-for-4. He did pick up a 14-yard gain on a DPI that was marked with a 25-yard depth of target. That can happen when a receiver gets hit and the ball goes flying over his head and lands further down the field.
27.	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	20/41	248	0	2	2	-8	-27	19	NO
Heinicke essentially disappeared in the middle of this game. He only picked up one first down from the middle of the second quarter to the early part of the fourth, going 7-of-19 for all of 44 yards. The first and last passes of that stretch were both intercepted. He was also the worst passer in the red zone, going 1-of-5 for 7 yards with no touchdowns, a DPI for 4 yards, and an interception.
28.	Trey Lance	SF	15/29	192	0	1	2	-9	-4	-5	ARI
There's not much to say about Lance's passing numbers. They're lousy. So let's look at his rushing numbers instead. They're lousy too. He ran 16 times for 89 yards, but only three first downs. All three of them came on his four scrambles, which gained a total of 45 yards. That means his 12 designed runs gained 44 yards and no first downs. All three of those first downs, by the way, came on runs that started within his own 25. In the other three-quarters of the field, he ran 12 times for 51 yards.
29.	Derek Carr	LV	22/35	206	0	1	3	-31	-27	-3	CHI
Carr was the second of three quarterbacks who threw a league-high nine failed completions, but the Raiders have more important things to worry about right now.
30.	Joe Burrow	CIN	26/38	281	2	2	3	-40	-36	-4	GB
Burrow had a lot of good plays in this game, but not many of them came on throws down the middle, where he went 7-of-10 for only 48 yards with an interception.
31.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	22/37	198	0	1	2	-45	-50	5	CAR
Hurts was the last of the three quarterbacks who threw a league-high nine failed completions. On a related note, his first six pass attempts resulted in only three completions for a total of -6 yards. He was the NFL's worst passer on throws to tight ends, going 3-of-9 for 35 yards and an interception.
32.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	19/32	192	0	1	2	-77	-76	-1	ATL
Wilson had the league's worst DYAR from under center, going 3-of-9 for 20 yards with an interception. He did have a 10th throw that resulted in a 45-yard DPI.
33.	Jared Goff	DET	21/35	203	0	1	4	-90	-90	0	MIN
Goff's average pass traveled a league-low 6.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He had the league's worst DYAR inside the opponents' 40-yard line, going 3-of-9 for 36 yards with two sacks, a fumble, and an interception.
34.	Sam Darnold	CAR	21/37	177	1	3	3	-151	-155	4	PHI
Darnold had the league's worst DYAR on deep passes—he threw seven of them, completing two to his own teammates (for 49 yards) and two to Eagles defenders. He was also worst on throws to wide receivers, going 9-of-17 for 86 yards with three picks. He was actually very effective on throws down the middle (8-of-10 for 112 yards) But that just means he was miserably bad on throws to the outside (13-of-27 for 65 yards with one touchdown, three interceptions, and no gain of more than 9 yards).

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Jonathan Taylor	IND	15	53	1	3/4	116	1	69	18	51	BAL
2.	Myles Gaskin	MIA	5	25	0	10/10	74	2	63	17	46	TB
Four of Gaskin's five runs came on second down. He picked up two first dwons, the longest a gain of 13. Only three of his catches gained first downs, but eight were successful plays, and the failures—2- and 4-yard gains on first-and-10—were hardly disasters.
3.	Najee Harris	PIT	23	122	1	2/5	20	0	48	46	2	DEN
Harris was stuffed four times while running for five first downs, the longest a gain of 20. But he was reliable—18 of his 23 runs gained at least 3 yards.
4.	Leonard Fournette	TB	12	67	1	4/5	43	0	43	23	20	MIA
Fournette was stuffed just once while running for three first downs, including 13- and 17-yard gains. Three of his catches gained first downs; the other was a 6-yard gain on second-and-10.
5.	James Robinson	JAX	18	149	1	1/1	-2	0	36	45	-9	TEN
Robinson was stuffed only three times while running for seven first downs. He had four gains of 10-plus yards, including a gain of 58.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Najee Harris	PIT	23	122	1	2/5	20	0	48	46	2	DEN
2.	James Robinson	JAX	18	149	1	1/1	-2	0	36	45	-9	TEN
3.	Derrick Henry	TEN	29	130	3	0/0	0	0	36	36	0	JAX
Henry was stuffed five times and his longest run gained only 15 yards, but he ran for eight first downs, with four gains of 10-plus yards.
4.	Austin Ekeler	LAC	17	66	2	5/5	53	1	26	28	-2	CLE
Ekeler's longest run gained only 9 yards, but each of his 17 carries gained at least 1 yard, and he ran for five first downs.
5.	Aaron Jones	GB	14	103	0	4/5	6	0	8	27	-19	CIN
Jones was stuffed four times with only three first downs ... but those three first downs came on gains of 11, 14, and 57 yards.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Mark Ingram	HOU	16	41	0	0/0	0	0	-26	-26	0	NE
Ingram only ran for one first down with a long gain of 8 yards. He was stuffed only one time, but only two of his carries gained more than 4 yards.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Mark Ingram	HOU	16	41	0	0/0	0	0	-26	-26	0	NE

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	DK Metcalf	SEA	5	5	98	19.6	2	73	LAR
Each of Metcalf's five catches gained at least 14 yards and a first down, including 19- and 23-yard touchdowns and a 25-yard gain on second-and-9. He also picked up a 13-yard DPI on second-and-8.
2.	Antonio Brown	TB	7	8	124	17.7	2	66	MIA
Each of Brown's seven catches gained at least 4 yards and a first down, including 4- and 62-yard touchdowns. He also picked up a 7-yard DPI. The Buccaneers threw him four passes on third downs and he moved the chains every time.
3.	Kadarius Toney	NYG	10	13	189	18.9	0	64	DAL
Toney was effective catching passes from both Daniel Jones (4-5-80) and Mike Glennon (6-8-109). Eight of his catches produced first downs, including gains of 26, 28, 35, and 38 yards.
4.	Chase Claypool	PIT	5	6	130	26.0	1	58	DEN
Each of Claypool's catches gained at least 14 yards and a first down, including three third-down conversions and a gain of 59.
5.	Diontae Johnson	PIT	2	2	72	36.0	1	55	DEN
Johnson actually had three targets: a 50-yard touchdown on third-and-7; a 17-yard DPI on third-and-15; and a 22-yard gain on second-and-8.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	John Ross	NYG	1	5	13	13.0	0	-31	DAL
Ross was ineffective catching passes from both Daniel Jones (0-for-2) and Mike Glennon (1-of-3 for 13 yards). He had two targets on third down, both with 3 yards to go, both incomplete.

Comments

89 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2021, 6:04pm

#1 by bubba37 // Oct 12, 2021 - 2:55am

If I asked you to name the top passer on third/fourth down this week, how many names would you have guessed before getting to Patrick Mahomes?

Should be "the worst passer"

#2 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 12, 2021 - 2:59am

This page was published at about 2:30 a.m. EST and it took less than thirty minutes for someone to point out an error in the middle of the night. FO readers are the best copy editors in the entire world.

Sincerely, thank you. That has been fixed.

#34 by RickD // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:06am

:applause:

#3 by DisplacedPackerFan // Oct 12, 2021 - 3:21am

I find it hilarious that Lamar Jackson wasn't the top QB this week because Tom Brady had +5 rushing DYAR and Jackson had -9 rushing DYAR. So that 14 point swing thanks to rushing DYAR is why Tom Brady was better this week than Lamar Jackson.

Jackson had him beat 230 to 228 in Passing DYAR.

Yes I actually understand what DYAR is measuring and why, and I'm not saying it's wrong. I'm also aware that Brady while he doesn't run much tends to have very valuable rushes when he does. It's still just funny to me.

#7 by Raiderfan // Oct 12, 2021 - 5:52am

Clearly, he is underrated as a dual threat. Why, he is 1K Brady.

#4 by Dan // Oct 12, 2021 - 3:36am

Worst WR should be John Ross, not former special teamer "Jeremy Ross".

#5 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:10am

Weird. We'll look into how that happened. Thanks for pointing it out.

#6 by HitchikersPie // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:25am

It really is remarkable that despite not getting a true WR1 until his age 30 season that Brady has gone on to take this record. So many ardent Peyton fans used to tout DYAR, among other records (Yards, TDs, Wins even) as ones Brady could never touch, and 6 years later like a metronome Brady is still ticking along, good as ever, and still the top QB in the league, and firmly within the elite group.

What’s even more remarkable is that Brady predicted all this, in his leaked emails from 2014 after the Broncos lost the Super Bowl he called Peyton having 1 or 2 years left and that he had another 5+ to truly cement his position.

#31 by Ryan // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:02am

What's the most remarkable is how much DYAR Peyton packed in and how long it's taken Tom to reach those same levels, especially with his neck bones fused together

#39 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:44am

Honestly, I think the last column tells the story.

Also, right there in the top 5 is Marino...

#41 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:56am

Nobody gave such positive Value to his Team in the Reg. Season only to then give as much NEGATIVE Value to his Team in the playoffs as Marino. Dan is still in the Top 10 amongst QB's for Value in the Reg. Season according to P-F-R but then NOT even in the Top 100 for Value in the playoffs. In fact, they determined that Marino gave his Team a Negative Value in 10 of his 18 playoff games-including 3 of his 4 championship games.

#8 by big10freak // Oct 12, 2021 - 6:06am

He thought his 11 for 206 was a big day. Can’t even make the board. But when your qb Is throwing to you seemingly every other pass attempt those failed efforts matter

#27 by Arkaein // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:54am

I still don't get it. Just rewatched his game highlights and not only did he have the catches and yards, he had 9 first downs including the TD.

Having a hard time figuring out how almost 13 yards/attempt, 69% catch rate, and a first down or TD on over half of his targets to go with the massive yardage doesn't end up as a top game.

#44 by DisplacedPackerFan // Oct 12, 2021 - 12:25pm

I was wondering too as I expected to see him so I poked at the box score a bit to see if I could figure out why. 11 catches on 16 targets, 206 yards, 1 TD. Actually that should be "only 1 TD" too probably. TD's give a lot of the DYAR value we see.

5 incomplete targets is going to generate some negative DYAR.
I can't remember if the WR gets any penalty for interceptions but he was the target on the interception. So that may be lumped in the 5 or it might carry a bit more negative.
The 2nd & 3 catch for no gain will generate negative DYAR and is a failed completion.
The 3rd & 9 catch for 2 yards will generate negative DYAR and is a failed completion.

So I think only 7 of the receptions were considered successful which is a 43.8% success rate. One of those was 6 yards on 1st and 10 which is going to be low DYAR and just barely counts as a success.

3 of the targets were failed 3rd down conversions as well and failing on 3rd I think gets you a little extra negative (2 incomplete passes and the already noted 2 yards on 3rd and 9).

I'm guessing he was around 50 DYAR somewhere in the top 10. There was a lot of positive value, but there was a fair chunk of negative value to pull it down. I have some issues with DYAR at a player level, but this is one of the cases because of 16 targets where it can be illuminating.

Edit: Another note, Rodgers only had 77 DYAR. Some of that had to go to Dillon and his 2 FD and TD. When you need 55 to make the table it's tricky when there is only that much to work with and other players actually had positive value too.

#64 by Eddo // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:13pm

DYAR doesn't work the way you say in your edit. That is, the sum of players' receiving DYAR will not equal the QB's passing DYAR. In last week's Quick Reads, Vince discussed this (emphasis mine):

"So is Patterson a running back or a wide receiver? It's a tricky but important distinction for our numbers. He's listed as a running back this year on the Falcons roster, in our database, and in most fantasy football leagues. (It's amusing to think about how many fantasy football leagues are going to be won by managers who grabbed Patterson as an RB off the waiver wire. It's also amusing—to me, anyway—that Patterson was on my opponent's bench in one of my leagues this week.) And as a running back, he is second among all players in receiving DYAR behind only Kansas City's Tyreek Hill going into Monday Night. However, that's partly because he is being held to a lower standard than Hill. On 21 targets, Patterson has a 61.9% success rate and is averaging 11.2 yards per play. Those numbers blow away the combined stats for running backs in 2021 (48.5%, 6.3), but are more in line with what the typical wide receiver is doing this year (52.9%, 8.6). We can somewhat remove positional adjustments by looking at quarterback's passing DYAR on throws to each receiver. By that metric, Patterson falls from second in the league to 10th behind Hill and nine other wide receivers."

#75 by DisplacedPackerFan // Oct 12, 2021 - 6:43pm

Yeah that was a quick edit that was mostly just pointing out that GB in general didn't have a ton of passing value and other players outside Adams had decent days catching the ball too. Though as you point out that isn't how DYAR works. It's even possible for a receiver to have positive DYAR and a QB to be negative. The QB DYAR though is strongly correlated with the teams passing DVOA.

The point was other Packers receivers had OK or good days but the team didn't have a ton passing/receiving value. Cobb had two 15 yard receptions and while one was a failed 3rd down it was barely failed so was only a little negative. Lewis had a 20 and 14 yard reception.

But yes how I stated that was not at all right and potentially very misleading.

#80 by Eddo // Oct 12, 2021 - 9:31pm

Got it, sorry if that came off in a combative way.

#71 by Arkaein // Oct 12, 2021 - 5:31pm

Adams had 9 first downs including TDs, so your success rate is wrong. Just 2 failed completions which you highlighted.

I know success rate is a big part of DYAR so that was one of the first things I looked at. 56% seems pretty good to me. Not amazing by itself, but good enough that it shouldn't be dragging down the value of the yardage total.

I forgot about him being the target on the INT though, I'll bet that has an effect.

#9 by nat // Oct 12, 2021 - 7:38am

Moss? Gronkowski?

It’s funny that you would mention just those two receivers in your recap of the Brady/Manning debates, when it was Manning who seemed to depend on a small group of receivers for a larger portion of his DYAR.

So, for the record, how many receivers does it take to account for 30% of each’s career DYAR? For 50%?

#15 by Pat // Oct 12, 2021 - 9:07am

when it was Manning who seemed to depend on a small group of receivers for a larger portion of his DYAR.

Not sure you understood what the point of that comment was? Early on, Brady's passing stats were... average. Just completely not in the same class as Manning. The Brady side of the argument pointed out exactly what you're saying: that Manning had way better receivers than Brady had. And then suddenly Brady got top-class receivers and his numbers skyrocketed.

That's the point of mentioning those guys: that basically justified those arguments that Brady was being held back by his receivers (or Manning was being helped, either way).

#49 by nat // Oct 12, 2021 - 1:08pm

Sure. I get that. I was just curious about how different the two QBs were with regards to their reliance on a few receivers. I’m sure the FO team could easily find career DYAR by target.

#10 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 12, 2021 - 7:50am

I'm curious - since the opponent adjustments for Mahomes made such a big difference (and appear to be absolutely valid, from watching the game), how much did Allen lose for playing KC? I mean, the secondary wasn't WFT-Landon-Collins-doesn't-know-what-he's-doing bad, but it was close.

#13 by AFCNFCBowl // Oct 12, 2021 - 8:09am

They mentioned Tannehill got the biggest penalty from opponent adjustments (JAX is really terrible against the pass, solid against the run while KC is terrible against both).

#28 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:56am

Yeah, I saw the Tannehill piece. Just curious what KC's defense is deducting - and Jax is definitely worse against the pass.

#70 by af16 // Oct 12, 2021 - 5:30pm

Whatever it is, it ain't enough. I can't think of a single thing that KC defense does well besides the occasional Mathieu turnover.

#11 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 12, 2021 - 7:57am

So, the life of Taylor Heinekie:

Spunky, "athletic" backup QB with great story? Check.

Great one-off playoff game when the other team isn't prepared for you? Check.

Come in and have great game in loss after starter is injured in opener? Check.

League has completely figured you out in four games? Check.

There was a lot of talk in town about keeping him as the starter when Fitz comes back because he could be the QB of the future. I think we have enough sample size to figure that out now.

#14 by Pat // Oct 12, 2021 - 9:02am

Eh. The Saints defense is still weird. We're a week out from Heinecke lighting up the Falcons, so I think saying "league has completely figured you out" is a pretty massive stretch.

#23 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:36am

I'm not sure the Falcons are a measuring stick, but you do have a point.

#26 by Pat // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:50am

Oh, they're definitely not. But like I said, the Saints defense is weird. Mac Jones's YAR/DYAR in Quick Reads went 62, -56, -131, 63, 42. Guess which one was New Orleans. Plus obviously they made Rodgers look washed in week 1, too, so I guess they're only good on odd weeks?

Not saying he's a great QB or anything, but Fitzpatrick isn't either.

#30 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:58am

Not saying he's a great QB or anything, but Fitzpatrick isn't either.

Agreed. I was more concerned with the idea of "Hey, we don't need to look for a QB in the draft", which is the mentality a lot of my WFT friends are taking watching Scrappy Backup QB play.

This is the town that loved Colt McCoy.

#56 by dmb // Oct 12, 2021 - 2:24pm

This WFT fan has had no delusions about Heinicke being promising enough to assume that he's worth passing up a good prospect in the draft, but there is certainly a vocal contingent that has felt that way.

What I find particularly strange about their view is that many advocate that he should be treated as a rookie because he has approximately the same amount of starting experience as one. The problem with that is that even if that is the correct barometer of how much room on the developmental curve he can potentially travel, by the time he "could" end up as a polished player, he'll already be at -- or very close to -- an age where players begin to decline physically. For a player who is as dependent on his legs as he is -- and whose arm strength is barely passable at the NFL level today -- pretty much any physical decline probably marks the end of his career. So in the best possible case, his play probably drops off a cliff just after he reaches "decent starter" territory.

I have enjoyed watching him play, and he's been capable of moving the offense, which is more than can be said about some of the other players WFT has lined up behind center. But planning around him as a starter for any significant length of time is pretty obviously a bad idea.

#12 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 12, 2021 - 7:57am

Double post.

#16 by Darren // Oct 12, 2021 - 9:58am

How much of Lamar's awesome passing game was due to the Colts running out of replacement-level CBs? The commenters kept saying target the practice-squad guy. It certainly seemed Andrews and Brown were running free an awful lot.

Not all QBs could have taken advantage of the opportunity as well as Jackson did, but he had 107 yds passing at halftime before the rash of DB injuries, iirc.

#60 by JimZipCode // Oct 12, 2021 - 3:44pm

Lamar had 107 yds passing at halftime before the rash of DB injuries, iirc.

On only 11 attempts, though.

I'm not going to argue that Lamar payed lights-out in the first half. He missed two third-down passes that Cian Fahey in his Patreon called "inexcusable", he made a couple of scramble decisions that looked questionable (and got tripped up), he took a sack (although for zero yds) But his raw passing efficiency stats for the half are not bad:

8 of 11 (72.7%) for 107 yds (9.7 yds-per), passer rating of 103.2

It looked to me – a very biased Lamar stan – like the Ravens were trying too hard to "establish the run" against an Indy defense that was as balls-out committed to stopping the run as Denver had been the week before, and Detroit the week before that. Ravens not named Lamar rushed 7 times for 11 yards in the half. The first 4 drives ended in punts, and each of them featured a run stuff (or that sack). Lamar in those drives went 4 of 6 for 42 yds.

The Ravens started moving the ball when they let Lamar loose in the passing game, rather than sending their off-the-street running backs into the teeth of a prepped defense. From about the 4-min mark in Q2 (start of their 5th drive) it looked like they had figured things out. They were never really "stopped" in any drive from then on. They got the Q2 FG. Then, remember their first drive in Q3 they went from their own 9 down to the Indy 1 before Lamar fumbled.

I think we didn't start hearing about Indy DBs dropping until some time in Q4? Not positive about that. But the Ravens offense had already started clicking by then.

#63 by JimZipCode // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:10pm

One more bit on that. From the 4:20 mark in Q2 until the end of Q3, the Ravens had 3 drives. They went FG, drive from own 9 to Indy 1 before fumble, TD. In those drives, Lamar went:

15 of 17 (88%) for 206 (12.1 yds-per) with the 1 TD

He also had 3 designed runs for 11 yds, got sacked once for -5, and scrambled once for 12 – and, uh, the designed goal line run with the fumble.

During that same span the Ravens got 4 runs for 11 yds from other rushers.

Point being, Lamar had already got dialed-in before Q4. His comp% and yards-per are actually very slightly worse in Q4 (though still awesome) than in the Q2-3 span.

I think Lamar's awesome passing game had less to do with Indy running out of defensive backs in Q4, and more to do with Indy's strategic decisions about how to defend the Ravens. They used an approach similar to what Denver had done, and Detroit before them: sell out to stop the run, including all the option concepts, and make Lamar beat them thru the air. When Greg Roman finally sighed "Ok fine", about the mid-point of Q2, that's when Lamar's awesome passing game started.

#81 by TGT // Oct 12, 2021 - 9:42pm

Slightly related, I was surprised to see neither Andrews nor Brown in the best receivers section. I bet they both just missed the cutoff.

#17 by RevBackjoy // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:06am

Austin Ekeler had the best-looking receiving statline ever for a sub-replacement day: 5/5 for 53 yards and a TD! Yes, 2 fumbles, but still.

#18 by dank067 // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:09am

Now that we're closer to getting a full picture of his career, Montana's numbers are pretty outstanding. I mean, that's not a surprise, but I did find it interesting that his DYAR/game is so much higher than Steve Young's (not that Young's number isn't great on its own). I'm guessing the combination of the years in TB and coming into games in relief probably knock him down a little bit just in that metric, but I wonder what Young's DVOA and DYAR/game were after he became established as the starter in 1991. (I'm just thinking out loud - not expecting a new table or anything!)

#20 by Chuckc // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:14am

As a guess, I'll say that sacks and fumbles are what hold Young's DVOA and DYAR back.

#47 by Bryan Knowles // Oct 12, 2021 - 12:45pm

We are getting close to getting back to 1981 and Joe Montana's first season as a starter, and you better believe I'll be diving into all the data when that happens to settle the Montana/Young debate, once and for all!

(Not once, and certainly not for all, but it's nice to have goals)

#19 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:12am

Overcame the Chiefs.

Largest deficit overcame last night.

All this talk about Herbert MVP but not Lamar? Wild

#21 by AFCNFCBowl // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:27am

Herbert beat and dropped 47 on a Browns defense that was ranked 3rd in DVOA and had just held CHI and MIN to 13 points in 2 games.

#22 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:35am

Common opponents.

And is lower than Lamar in the EPA+CPOE composite despite better pass catchers.

#43 by AFCNFCBowl // Oct 12, 2021 - 12:22pm

Herbert and Chargers put up 28 on LV. Lamar and Ravens only 27.

Herbert also zero TO's against LV and KC. Lamar 4 TO's.

#87 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 13, 2021 - 5:55pm

And despite those turnovers Lamar still leads in CPOE! Because he attempts hard passes. And despite attempting harder passes he completes more of them outright!

#24 by vrao81 // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:39am

At this point its pretty hard to determine MVP. You could make arguments for Brady, Herbert, Jackson, Prescott, and others. Hopefully the next couple weeks will make it clearer.

#36 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:16am

Dealing with Kliff.

#45 by jgov // Oct 12, 2021 - 12:29pm

And that doesn't even mention Mahomes (still leads the league in TD passes) or Stafford (leads the league in ANY/A).

#83 by LionInAZ // Oct 13, 2021 - 12:14am

Kyler? LMAO. You obviously did not look at his statline this week.

#88 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 13, 2021 - 5:59pm

One game? In which he didn't turn it over and had a much better passer rating then his opposition?

#25 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:42am

I've wasted way too much time on the Brady Manning debate that I refuse to do it anymore.

Football happily moves on, even if in bitter ways like watching your team vomit all over itself with a chance to win the game at the end.

Whenever a team is losing, it feels like the coaching staff is the first to get blamed.

An optimist might say the Colts have been in all of these games and could potentially be undefeated. And that's not entirely wrong. But a more honest assessment would say this team is unlucky to have one win to this point, but that doesn't mean they're any kind of good team.

When you look back in history at the kind of teams that suffer big declines in their wins from a year ago, last year's Colts fit that profile. So in a lot of ways I viewed this situation as inevitable. And Carson Wentz has done about as well as you could hope honestly. He's played every game and he's looked like a tier 3 quarterback on a middling team.

#29 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:57am

If you were starting a new franchise you certainly could not go wrong with either Brady or Manning. For me, it comes down to this-if my team had a championship game coming up (Conference or League) who would I want as my QB? One stands out over the other. In fact, I would take Montana, Bradshaw, Starr, or Elway before P.Manning. Montana played good enough to help his Team win 8 total championships, Bradshaw also 8, Starr 7, and Elway also 7.

#33 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:05am

Why not Eli Manning above all of these names? 538 has ranked him as the best postseason quarterback in NFL history.

#35 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:15am

I would like to read their reasoning but I will say thisEli reached the absolute Pinnacle of His Profession twice when he won those 2 S.B. MVP's. There is nothing a QB can do in an NFL Year to top being named S.B. MVP. Plus Eli is 1 of only 5 QB's in history to win multiple S.B. MVP's. The others being Brady, Montana, Bradshaw, and Starr. All 4 of which I listed above.

#37 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:26am

But he has the BEST postseason stats of any of QB. The BEST. Surely the best deserves to be on top no?

#38 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:35am

I would like to read their reasoning-I am searching for it. But it sure sounds like you are convinced.

#40 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:55am

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-clutch-postseason-quarterback-of-all-time-is-eli-manning/

And no, my point is to highlight him as a general inconsistency with this post season wins all argument. Most people like to have it both ways. So and So won 4 titles( because you know, its a game of tennis after all) but then no one can deal with the messy issues it brings up like Eli Manning > Brees, Young, Rodgers(for now), etc etc

#42 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 12:04pm

There is nothing messy about it-if I had a the biggest game of the year coming up (a championship game) there are some QB's I would like to have on my team over other QB's. It is as simple as that. Every QB wants to play good enough to help their Team win a championship-we all know that. Maybe Marino said it best-"I'd trade every Record we broke to be Super Bowl Champs".

#48 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 12:51pm

I guess football really is tennis

#51 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 1:26pm

No, football is not tennis, but the QB position is very much like tennis as many studies have shown. The QB that has a better game-his team will win a playoff game at a high % rate. If a QB throws 1 INT in a playoff game his team has a better than 50% chance of winning a majority of the time. If he throws 2 INT's his team only has a 30% chance of winning a majority of the time. Like most studies, they have to put a disclaimer on it and say "Not 100% of the time" but a majority of the time. So, slothook, if you post a rebuttal please also post the percentages that disprove those studies. I know you by now so I know you will hate those studies but that does not make them invalid-unless you have percentages to prove them false.

#53 by LyleNM // Oct 12, 2021 - 1:31pm

Must....not.....feed.....the....troll........

#54 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 1:54pm

Slothook likes to debate these things using facts and studies just as much as I do.

#55 by Cheesehead_Canuck // Oct 12, 2021 - 2:19pm

My dude, have you seen the big games that Brady was outperformed by his peer and still came out on top? Is it because he "just wins" or consistently has the better surrounding cast in the form of coaching, O line, and defense?

#66 by Ryan // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:47pm

"There is nothing a QB can do in an NFL Year to top being named S.B. MVP. "

Yeah, that's not true at all

#72 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 6:07pm

That's a great point you are making- I should have stated the obvious so let me try again. There is nothing a QB can do in an NFL Year to top playing good enough to help their Team win the Super Bowl AND then being named S.B. MVP. Thanks again for the heads-up.

#73 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 6:37pm

You know, there has been a qb who won SB MVP scoring 13 points on offense. And then I saw the same QB light it up in another sb, but he happened to lose and didn't get the MVP. Are we left to conclude his youngerself was better by this criteria?

#76 by Bob Smith // Oct 12, 2021 - 6:49pm

I stand by my post number 72 above. Especially since Marino backs me up when HE said-"I'd trade every Record we broke to be Super Bowl Champs". If that is how a record-breaking QB feels about, then that is good enough for me.

#85 by mleklund // Oct 13, 2021 - 11:58am

If so, Brady, the guy who seemed to always be willing to take less money has to be the choice, right? I mean, I have to believe that Payton could have won more if he'd had more around him. I don't have any percentage of the cap numbers to back this up, but it seemed to always be a narrative that Brady took less.

#32 by RickD // Oct 12, 2021 - 11:04am

Lamar actually had the highest passing DYAR this week, but Brady passed him with overall DYAR thanks to his superior rushing ability.

I'm dying here.

:laugh:

#46 by jgov // Oct 12, 2021 - 12:33pm

I'm curious why Wentz's passing DYAR rank isn't higher with a 400-yard, 11+ YPA, 0 INT game. It's a crowded week at the top, but I think he would at least be above Ryan, who had 60 fewer yards on 10 more attempts and the same TD/INT ratio.

#52 by ssereb // Oct 12, 2021 - 1:29pm

I suspect it's because the Ravens pass defense has been fairly mediocre thus far.

#50 by horn // Oct 12, 2021 - 1:15pm

Hurts completely stinks on ice. Terrible week. 28th in QBR this season, whereas the hated-by-Tanier-Wentz is 20th without his top WR and two best OL.

There better be a QB worth taking with one/some of the Iggles 3 picks, thank you Colts for blowing that game. Not sure if yours or Miami's will be our top choice but we got 12 weeks to find out.

#57 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 2:58pm

The Colts better bench Wentz once the lost season has been confirmed. It should have been confirmed by now, but that stupid 7th seed plus a crappy division is keeping that illusion alive.

#89 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 13, 2021 - 6:04pm

Only comment to hate on Hurts.

Did he do something to you? Or is this just a very transparent Wentz love fest?

Hurts is the 10th graded passer out of 35. Why are you so quick to throw out the young QB but love the veteran that was objectively horrible by every standard last year? Hmmm

#58 by Bill Walshs Ho… // Oct 12, 2021 - 3:22pm

So Kyler Murray got -32 rushing DYAR and +50 passing DYAR for a total of +17 DYAR. Is this a new math I'm unfamiliar with?

#59 by dmb // Oct 12, 2021 - 3:34pm

Rounding is certainly not a new concept. Only you would know your level of familiarity with it, but the available evidence suggests that it is indeed unfamiliar to you.

Let's say he had -32.4 rushing DYAR and 49.6 passing DYAR. Since the tables are presenting values as whole numbers, those would be listed as -32 and 50, respectively. However, summing them yields 17.2 -- which, rounded to the nearest whole number, would be 17.

(Apologies for the snark in the first paragraph -- it's intended to be light fun in response to the way the question was posed. If I turn out to be wrong about the reason for those results, snark is warranted in and and all replies to this!)

#86 by Bill Walshs Ho… // Oct 13, 2021 - 4:03pm

Rounding is likely the most likely reason.

Snark appreciated since I live & die by it. No offense taken.

#61 by paytonrules // Oct 12, 2021 - 3:48pm

In addition to looking at that table and saying "Holy crap Jim Everett is here!" I wonder how Steve Young and Joe Montana's DYAR compare if you only take the SF years for both of them. Not super-fair, since Montana was pretty good in KC and Young was bad in Tampa, but I'm curious.

#62 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:01pm

Thank you all for the good questions this week!

We took a brief look at Marino's postseason woes here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/russell-wilson-and-wasted-quarterbacks

Having a hard time figuring out how almost 13 yards/attempt, 69% catch rate, and a first down or TD on over half of his targets to go with the massive yardage doesn't end up as a top game.

Adams was eighth with 51 DYAR. Nine first downs in 16 targets is not a good rate for a wide receiver, at least not compared to those in the top five. He's hurt by the five incomplete targets and two failed receptions, but not the interception—for receivers, we treat interceptions like any other incompletion.

Sure. I get that. I was just curious about how different the two QBs were with regards to their reliance on a few receivers. I’m sure the FO team could easily find career DYAR by target.

Not easily, no. It would involve going through nearly two dozen workbooks, one for each season, and calculating numbers for each target one year at a time.

-34 DYAR, second-most behind Tannehill.

From 1991 to 1998 (throwing out his bad numbers in an injury-shortened, career-ending 1999), Young had 9,823 DYAR (87.7 per game) and a 32.0% DVOA.

Time restraints prevent me from breaking down Monday night games at a granular level, but Wentz had a sack-fumble on second-and-6 in the red zone in the first quarter. Red zone sack-fumbles are typically worth a loss of somewhere between 30 and 50 DYAR.

So Kyler Murray got -32 rushing DYAR and +50 passing DYAR for a total of +17 DYAR. Is this a new math I'm unfamiliar with?

Rounding error. Technically he had 49.6 passing DYAR, -32.4 rushing DYAR, and 17.2 combined DYAR, but we only display whole numbers.

#65 by dmb // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:33pm

Rounding error. Technically he had 49.6 passing DYAR, -32.4 rushing DYAR, and 17.2 combined DYAR, but we only display whole numbers.

I feel more pleased with myself than I have any right to be that I happened to blindly use those exact figures in my reply to the comment that prompted this response.

#77 by DisplacedPackerFan // Oct 12, 2021 - 7:05pm

Adams was eighth with 51 DYAR. Nine first downs in 16 targets is not a good rate for a wide receiver, at least not compared to those in the top five. He's hurt by the five incomplete targets and two failed receptions, but not the interception—for receivers, we treat interceptions like any other incompletion.

Well I feel better when I said:

I'm guessing he was around 50 DYAR somewhere in the top 10. There was a lot of positive value, but there was a fair chunk of negative value to pull it down.

And I wasn't sure on the INT, thank you for clearing that up and hopefully I'll remember because I'm sure it's been stated before that it's treated like any other incomplete for a receiver.

So yeah looks like based on last week WR average success rate is 52.9%. Adams was 9 / 16 for 56.25% so yeah that isn't really that much over average. For some reason I had it 7 when I was first poking at where his value might have gone. And yeah this week we had 5 FD on 5 targets, 7 FD on 8 targets, 8 FD on 13 targets, 5 FD on 6 targets, and 2 FD on 2 (or 3 on 3 if you count the DPI as a FD and a target). So while 9 on 16 isn't bad it's not great. I mean 50 DYAR is still a good day for a receiver, this was just an interesting week.

So for me, yeah I'm cleared up on why he wasn't top 5. Thanks again.

Also:

Not easily, no. It would involve going through nearly two dozen workbooks, one for each season, and calculating numbers for each target one year at a time.

Damn that means that conversion to a real DB isn't done yet. I keep hoping that happens (and as someone who has converted spreadsheets and other data sources to a real DB I do understand how big a task that can actually be).

Oh and I love the QB age DYAR comp graph. Love seeing that stuff (which would be super easy with a real DB). I keep hoping you guys can get that done with the limited staff/time you have. Trust me if I had the time I'd volunteer to help, but I don't. I want you guys to have more time to write and answer questions you have and having the stats more accessible just makes that happen, and I'm sure you'll find things you didn't think about before either. But you guys know that too, so I'll just keep being patient.

#82 by dank067 // Oct 12, 2021 - 10:57pm

Thanks for running those Steve Young numbers - that's one heck of a run and it's nice to have it in era-adjusted terms. It's also crazy that Manning was able to beat that DYAR/game pace and Brady has been able to match it over the course of their entire careers.

#84 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 13, 2021 - 3:08am

I just realized I can quickly add rushing DYAR to this. (It wasn't terribly relevant for Brady and Manning.) In that 1991-1998 stretch, Young led all QBs in passing DYAR, and also led all QBs with 1,044 rushing DYAR -- more than double anyone else. Add them together and you get 97.0 DYAR per game. He was the man.

#67 by lenny65 // Oct 12, 2021 - 4:52pm

...the greatest American pro athlete of all-time. No one is ever going to top his career. And trust me, I don't especially like saying it, but it's true.

#74 by theslothook // Oct 12, 2021 - 6:41pm

My personal opinion has Serena as the greatest athlete. Not really any debate about who the best player at her sport was for a very extended period of time. Brady at his zenith; there was always a debate about whether he individually was the best. Maybe he was, maybe not, but it wasn't ever clear.

To that point, I think Brady will/is already getting the Bill Russel treatment. By that I mean, everyone is acknowledging his greatness because of accomplishments, but you already hear people saying, Rodgers is the best QB ever or Mahomes is the best QB ever. Its as if people concede the rings argument but also can't quite reconcile themselves into saying Brady is the best. And I think its precisely because he wasn't considered the indisputable best player in his prime the way some of these other GOAT candidates have.

In that way, his nemesis continues to hurt his legacy.

#68 by young curmudgeon // Oct 12, 2021 - 5:14pm

Irresponsible to refer to Catholic Match Girl and not include an illustration.

#69 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 12, 2021 - 5:29pm

I assume a lot of readers still have her as their wallpaper.

#78 by nat // Oct 12, 2021 - 8:03pm

That’s a horrifying thought. She was creepy.

#79 by nat // Oct 12, 2021 - 8:15pm

The link in the glossary is broken.

I do wonder how much DYAR Robopunter would have accumulated if his career had lasted as long as Brady’s.

Let’s see…. At 3 punts a game (if that. His teams have great field position, and kick a lot of field goals.) and…

hmmm….

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