Patrick Mahomes Threatens Opening Day Records

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 1 - To nobody's surprise, Patrick Mahomes was our top-ranked quarterback of Week 1. In fact, he had one of the best Week 1 performances we have ever measured. What does that tell us about his future? Do quarterbacks who play well in the season opener typically maintain that level throughout the year, or is it really, as the saying goes, Just One Game?

Mahomes threw 39 passes in Kansas City's 44-21 win against Arizona, completing 30 of them for 360 yards and five touchdowns without giving up a sack or interception. In nine drives Mahomes played before giving way to Chad Henne, the Chiefs scored six touchdowns and a field goal with one punt and one lost fumble (which came at the end of Mahomes' 19-yard completion). That's good for 302 passing DYAR, though Mahomes' total drops a bit if you include rushing data due to a fumbled snap. Justin Herbert was a distant second this week with 163 passing DYAR; nobody else had even half of Mahomes' total.

Our list of the best quarterback games by DYAR now goes back to 1981 and includes exactly 20 players before Mahomes who put up at least 220 combined DYAR in Week 1. None of them matched Mahomes' DYAR total—Phil Simms was the closest with 300 combined DYAR, throwing for 409 yards and four touchdowns for the Giants against the Eagles in 1984—but we can't say for certain that Mahomes has set the record there because we don't have full-season opponent adjustments for Arizona yet. We don't know for sure just how bad the Cardinals pass defense is right now—they might give up five touchdown passes again when face the Raiders next week, or maybe Derek Carr will throw three picks for the second week in a row. Those final adjustments could lower or raise Mahomes' DYAR when all is said and done.

What we can do, since we don't have opponent adjustments for Mahomes, is remove them from everyone else as well. If we take that list of great opening day games and rank them using YAR instead of DYAR, Simms falls from first place in the rankings to fourth. The new leader is Dak Prescott, whose raw totals (405 yards, four touchdowns) against the Giants in 2019 were similar to those of Simms against the Eagles. While the Eagles were a middle-of-the-pack defense in 1984, however, the 2019 Giants sucked, and so Prescott falls to seventh in DYAR.

Put it all together and Prescott still holds the Week 1 record for combined YAR, though Mahomes has set a new standard for passing YAR.

All QB Games, Week 1, 220-Plus DYAR,
Sorted by Total YAR (No Opponent Adjustments), 1981-2022
Year Player Team Total
DYAR
Total
YAR
Pass
YAR
Rush
YAR
Comp Att Yds TD Int Sacks Def
2019 Dak Prescott DAL 250 296 290 7 25 32 405 4 0 0 NYG
2022 Patrick Mahomes KC 291 291 302 -10 30 39 360 5 0 0 ARI
2018 Ryan Fitzpatrick TB 289 291 276 15 21 28 417 4 0 0 NO
1984 Phil Simms NYG 300 286 278 8 23 30 409 4 0 2 PHI
2018 Drew Brees NO 224 269 269 0 37 45 439 3 0 1 TB
2014 Matt Ryan ATL 243 265 263 2 31 42 448 3 0 1 NO
1997 Drew Bledsoe NE 251 264 265 0 26 39 340 4 0 0 SD
2013 Peyton Manning DEN 275 262 262 0 27 42 462 7 0 3 BAL
1997 Troy Aikman DAL 257 239 239 0 19 30 295 4 0 0 PIT
2007 Tom Brady NE 231 231 229 2 22 28 297 3 0 0 NYJ
2001 Brian Griese DEN 223 230 224 5 21 29 330 3 0 0 NYG
1984 Dan Marino MIA 232 227 227 0 21 28 311 5 0 0 WAS
2015 Tom Brady NE 222 221 217 4 25 32 288 4 0 2 PIT
2011 Tom Brady NE 224 218 216 2 32 48 517 4 1 1 MIA
2017 Sam Bradford MIN 252 215 215 0 27 32 346 3 0 1 NO
1982 Joe Theismann WAS 245 211 211 0 28 39 382 3 0 1 PHI
1982 Ron Jaworski PHI 220 200 197 3 27 38 371 2 0 6 WAS
1994 Dan Marino MIA 234 193 186 7 23 42 473 5 1 2 NE
2003 Tommy Maddox PIT 241 180 180 0 21 29 260 3 0 2 BAL
2019 Tom Brady NE 228 173 173 0 24 36 341 3 0 1 PIT
2009 Tom Brady NE 241 145 142 3 39 53 378 2 1 1 BUF

It turns out that Week 1 dominance is usually not a fluke, but the start of an excellent season instead. The 19 players who qualified for this table before Mahomes and finished that year with enough attempts to qualify for our end-of-season quarterback tables had a median ranking of seventh in passing DYAR and sixth in DVOA. Five of them finished first in one stat or the other, and 13 made the top 10 in both. But what about the others? Here's a look at the seven players who finished outside the top 10 in DYAR, DVOA, or both after a brilliant performance in Week 1:

Ron Jaworski, PHI, 1982: We added data for 1981 and 1982 this offseason, which means this is the earliest season ever discussed in Quick Reads. At 31 years old, Jaworski was at the peak of his career, having quarterbacked the Eagles to four straight playoff berths, including an appearance in Super Bowl XV against the Oakland Raiders. He started the season on fire—in his first two games, he completed 65.8% of his passes for 8.9 yards per throw with four touchdowns, one interception, and seven sacks. Then came the strike and the league shut down. When games started again in November, Jaworski wasn't the same—his completion percentage plummeted to 55.6% after the shutdown, averaging 6.6 yards per throw with only eight touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 24 sacks. That total of 31 sacks taken was the most in the NFL that year, the second time Jaworski had finished first in that dubious category, and he would wear that crown of thorns a third time the next season in 1983. But for all those sacks, Jaworski was durable, playing in Philadelphia until 1986 (when the Eagles took the joy of sacks to unimaginable peaks) before spending two years as a backup in Miami and Kansas City.

Troy Aikman, DAL, 1997: Aikman at this time was in some ways an enhanced version of Jaworski: 31 years old, Super Bowl experience, coming off six straight Pro Bowls. He threw four touchdowns against the Steelers to open the 1997 season, but had only 15 touchdowns (while giving up a dozen interceptions) the rest of the way. The Cowboys stuttered to a 6-5 start before losing each of their last five games to finish 6-10 and out of the playoffs for the first time since 1990; the franchise would not win another playoff game until 2009. Aikman never returned to the Pro Bowl. He started for three more years in Dallas but missed 12 games in that span before retiring due to concussions.

Brian Griese, DEN, 2001: Griese was a third-round pick in 1998, John Elway's last year in the league. He took over as the Broncos starter after Elway retired and made the Pro Bowl in 2000, leading the NFL in interception rate and passer rating and making the top five in both DYAR and DVOA. He looked even better early in 2001; in the first two weeks of the year, he threw six touchdowns without an interception while giving up only one sack. Then he went into a slump, and over the next six games he threw more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (nine) while giving up 20 sacks. He righted the ship somewhat in the second half of the year, but never again looked like the 2000 version of himself. Still, he lasted several more years as a starter in Miami, Tampa Bay, and Chicago, leading the NFL with a 69.3% completion rate with the Bucs in 2004.

Tommy Maddox, PIT, 2003: We could write a book about the twists and turns in Maddox's unique career, but we will try to keep this brief. Maddox was only 20 years old when the Broncos drafted him out of UCLA in 1992, and he is still the youngest player to throw a pass in an official NFL game since the 1940s. Maddox only lasted two years in Denver (losing all four of his starts) before being traded to the Rams. He spent two years with the Rams and Giants without ever starting and failed to make the Falcons roster out of training camp in 1997, then spent two years out of football, selling insurance. He began his gridiron comeback with the New Jersey Red Dogs of the Arena League in 2000 and continued it with the Los Angeles Xtreme of the original XFL, where he was named MVP after leading the league in yards and touchdowns. He signed with the Steelers in the fall of 2001 to back up Kordell Stewart, then took over as starter when Stewart was benched in Week 4 of 2002, leading the Steelers to a wild-card victory over the Browns in the Maddox-Kelly Holcomb playoff shootout that we swear to you actually happened. He opened 2003 with the best game of his career (21-of-29, 260 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions against the Ravens) and went on to start all 16 games, but played most of them like … well, like an insurance salesman. He was still Pittsburgh's starter on opening day of 2004 but lasted only two games before giving way to a rookie named Ben Roethlisberger. In his final NFL game, he took a half-dozen sacks in a 16-13 loss to Baltimore in November of 2005, but the Steelers would win him a Super Bowl ring a few months later.

Sam Bradford, MIN, 2017: The top overall draft pick in 2010, Bradford lasted only five years in St. Louis before tearing his left ACL twice, missing the entire 2014 season. The next year he was traded to Philadelphia for Nick Foles in virtually a one-for-one swap, with only a handful of late draft picks involved. He did not make the top 20 in either DYAR or DVOA, but the Eagles signed him to a two-year extension in March of 2016 … and then traded up in the draft to select Carson Wentz second overall. When Teddy Bridgewater tore his ACL in training camp, the Vikings traded for Bradford. He was the king of the checkdown that year, finishing first in completion percentage but last in yards per completion. He opened 2017 by ripping up the Saints for 346 yards and three touchdowns, but accumulated injuries limited him to only one more game the rest of the year. The Cardinals guaranteed him $15 million in March of 2018, then gave him three starts before benching him for Josh Rosen and releasing him in November. He is a charter member of the Business of Football Hall of Fame, having earned nearly $130 million in his career without ever reaching the playoffs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB, 2018: After starting games for the (deep inhale) Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, and Jets, Fitzpatrick joined the Buccaneers to back up Jameis Winston in 2017, making a handful of forgettable starts that year. With Winston suspended to start 2018, Fitzpatrick caught fire—in three games, he completed more than 70% of his passes for an 11.1-yard average with 11 touchdowns. Winston's suspension ended in Week 4, but Dirk Koetter kept him on the bench behind Fitzpatrick … for two quarters. Fitzpatrick was benched after a 9-of-18, 126-yard, 1-interception performance left the Bucs down 38-3 at halftime against Chicago. In Week 8, against Cincinnati, Winston was benched for after giving up four interceptions and five sacks. Fitzpatrick came into the game down 34-16 but threw a pair of touchdowns to tie the score before the Bengals won with a field goal at the gun. Fitzpatrick started the next three games, but his FitzMagic had dried up—he threw four touchdowns with seven interceptions and six sacks in three straight losses before being benched for good. He finished his career in Miami and then Washington before announcing his retirement a few months ago. Looking back at this, and all the Buccaneers have achieved since then, one gets the impression that Koetter had no idea what he was doing. And speaking of the Bucs…

Tom Brady, NE, 2019: You don't need me to tell you Brady's story. As has often been the case (his name appears five times in our Week 1 table), he got off to a great start in 2019. He continued to shine for several weeks, but he slumped badly after Halloween. In his first eight games, he completed 64.7% of his passes with a 7.3-yard average; in his last eight games, those numbers dropped to 56.9% and 5.9. Brady and New England suffered a 20-13 defeat to the Titans in Foxborough in the playoffs, and the Patriots decided to cut ties with their aging quarterback. Brady quietly relocated to Florida, and he has not been seen or heard from since.

So what does any of this have to do with Mahomes? Honestly, not a lot. He's still only 27, not an aging legend like Jaworski, Aikman, or Brady. He's not a journeyman like Fitzpatrick or Bradford, or an untested youngster like Griese or Maddox. He's a superstar who produces games like this so regularly we take them for granted sometimes, and he'll probably have several more whether it's Week 1 or Week 18.

Because what you really needed on a Tuesday morning is 2,000 words telling you that Patrick Mahomes is probably going to have a great year.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Patrick Mahomes KC
30/39
360
5
0
0
291
302
-10
ARI
As you might imagine, DYAR says that Mahomes was the week's best passer in a variety of categories. That includes throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (7-of-7 for 67 yards and two touchdowns), down the middle of the field (7-of-7 for 96 yards and a touchdown; every one of those completions picked up enough yards for a first down), and especially in the red zone (10-of-13 for 60 yards and five touchdowns, plus a 9-yard DPI).
2.
Justin Herbert LAC
26/34
279
3
0
0
156
163
-7
LV
Herbert led the NFL in passing DYAR on throws to running backs (8-of-8 for 56 yards and a touchdown) and in the second quarter (10-of-12 for 160 yards and two touchdowns).
3.
Russell Wilson DEN
29/42
340
1
0
2
138
141
-3
SEA
4.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
20/32
266
2
0
1
128
130
-3
NYG
Tannehill had a weird game against New York—the more yards to go for a first down, the more likely he was to convert. With 5 yards or less to go, he picked up four first downs in 12 plays. With 6 to 10 yards to go, he had eight in 18; with 11 yards or more, he had two in four.
5.
Josh Allen BUF
26/31
297
3
2
2
110
84
26
LAR
Allen was the week's best passer on third/fourth downs, going 7-of-8 for 162 yards. All seven of those completions moved the chains, including 26- and 53-yard touchdowns. That's not even counting what he did as a runner—his nine carries for 57 yards included conversions on both of his third-down runs, including a touchdown.
6.
Kirk Cousins MIN
23/32
277
2
0
1
104
104
0
GB
Yes, Cousins is carried here by Justin Jefferson (whom we shall get to shortly). On throws to all other players, Cousins went 14-of-21 for only 93 yards and five first downs. Obviously, every quarterback would look worse if we removed throws to their best receiver, but this specific split was quite extreme.
7.
Marcus Mariota ATL
20/32
215
0
0
0
98
101
-3
NO
Mariota went ice-cold in the first half, at one point going 13 straight dropbacks without a first down. He completed eight passes for 68 yards in that run, but 22 of those yards came on one play, and his receiver fumbled the ball away at the end of it.
8.
Lamar Jackson BAL
17/30
213
3
1
2
98
93
5
NYJ
Jackson's average depth of target was 13.1 yards, nearly 2 full yards higher than anyone else. He threw nine deep balls that traveled more than 15 yards downfield. One was intercepted, but three were completed for touchdowns (covering 17, 25, and 55 yards) and a fourth gained 32 yards on a DPI.
9.
Jalen Hurts PHI
18/32
243
0
0
1
76
47
29
DET
Hurts' average depth of target was a league-low 4.1 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He threw only one deep pass all game, but it was completed to A.J. Brown for a gain of 54 yards on third-and-4. Though his passing numbers were nothing special, Hurts led all qualifying quarterbacks in rushing DYAR, gaining 91 yards and a touchdown in 16 carries.
10.
Davis Mills HOU
23/37
240
2
0
3
73
77
-4
IND
When the fourth quarter began, the Texans led 20-3 and had a third-and-3 at the Colts 36. Mills threw incomplete and Houston would punt after a delay of game penalty. From that point forward, Mills threw for only one first down as the Colts salvaged a 20-20 tie. In the fourth quarter and overtime, Mills went 3-of-9 for 26 yards with three sacks and a lost fumble.
11.
Jameis Winston NO
23/32
269
2
0
4
73
75
-3
ATL
This was one of the most ridiculous games Quick Reads has ever seen. Winston failed to throw for a single first down in the first half, going 5-of-10 for 24 yards with three sacks. He had little more success in the third quarter, going 5-of-8 for 32 yards with two first downs and a sack. And then he put together a nearly perfect fourth quarter, completing 13 of 14 passes for 213 yards. Ten of those completions picked up first downs, including a pair of touchdowns. That's -23 DYAR in the first quarter, -53 in the second, -14 in the third, and 167 in the fourth. Most of his success came on deep balls, where went 8-of-10 for 189 yards. (Oh, and if you're curious, Taysom Hill had 34 rushing DYAR for his four carries for 81 yards and a touchdown.)
12.
Carson Wentz WAS
27/41
313
4
2
1
52
50
2
JAX
What a wild ride this was, especially in the second half. Wentz failed to throw for a single first down in the third quarter, when he went 3-of-6 for 8 yards with a sack. And then his first two passes of the fourth quarter were both intercepted. But from that point forward he went 8-of-11 for 134 yards and two touchdowns.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Kyler Murray ARI
22/34
193
2
0
2
49
57
-8
KC
Yes, there is some serious garbage-time stat-padding in Murray's numbers. By the time Kansas City went up 37-7 in the third quarter, Murray had gone 11-of-20 for 103 yards with a pair of sacks; from that point forward, he went 11-of-14 for 90 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He did not pick up a third-/fourth-down conversion in the first three quarters, but he hadup three of them in the fourth.
14.
Geno Smith SEA
23/28
195
2
0
2
36
34
2
DEN
15.
Trevor Lawrence JAX
26/42
275
1
1
2
34
39
-5
WAS
Lawrence had a bad day on third/fourth downs, going 3-of-11 for 35 yards with a pair of sacks and an interception. At least all three of those completions picked up first downs.
16.
Jared Goff DET
21/37
215
2
1
1
33
28
5
PHI
Goff got off to a miserable start in this game. His pick-six in the second quarter left Detroit facing a 21-7 deficit; up to that point, he had gone 3-of-10 for 6 yards with two of those completions losing yardage. He played very well after that—only Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen had more passing DYAR in the second half—but by then it was too little, too late.
17.
Tua Tagovailoa MIA
23/33
270
1
0
3
29
29
0
NE
The Dolphins won this game by multiple scores, but they could have won by more. Tagovailoa failed to convert on multiple scoring chances; inside the New England 40, he went 2-of-4 for 9 yards with two sacks, one fumble, and zero touchdowns.
18.
Jacoby Brissett CLE
18/32
147
1
0
1
13
15
-2
CAR
Brissett had a decent day on third/fourth downs, picking up six conversions in 15 dropbacks. But he needed to, because he didn't do much on first and second downs, going 11-of-18 for only 66 yards with one touchdown, one other first down, and one sack.
19.
Tom Brady TB
18/27
212
1
1
2
9
9
0
DAL
We triple-checked this, and it's true: Tom Brady had the week's worst DYAR on third/fourth downs, going 2-of-7 for 17 yards with two conversions, two sacks, and an interception.
20.
Matt Ryan IND
32/50
352
1
1
2
9
30
-21
HOU
Ryan ran for two first downs, but his rushing DYAR is turfed by a pair of aborted snaps. He was the week's worst passer on throws to running backs, going 10-of-13 for 64 yards with an interception.
21.
Mac Jones NE
21/30
213
1
1
2
0
2
-1
MIA
Jones and his receivers weren't very effective on throws down the middle. He went 4-of-7 on those passes for only 33 yards with an interception by Jones and and a fumble by Nelson Agholor (Editor's note: This was an error on our part. Jones' interception was thrown to the outside, not down the middle.)
22.
Joe Flacco NYJ
38/59
307
1
1
3
-10
-4
-6
BAL
Flacco threw 10 failed completions, most in the league this week.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Mitchell Trubisky PIT
21/37
194
1
0
1
-13
-13
-1
CIN
Pittsburgh's wide receivers combined for only four first downs, and only one gain of more than 10 yards. On throws to his wideouts, Trubisky went 12-of-22 for only 76 yards, plus a 2-yard DPI. For more on this subject, see the "Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR" section at the end of these tables.
24.
Daniel Jones NYG
17/21
188
2
1
5
-30
-32
2
TEN
Giants tight ends Daniel Bellinger, Tanner Hudson, and Chris Myarick combined to play 62 snaps against Tennessee. Jones only threw one pass in their direction: Myarick's game-winning 1-yard touchdown.
25.
Justin Fields CHI
8/17
121
2
1
2
-39
-39
1
SF
Though he wasn't the worst passer of the week, Fields was the least reliable, with a success rate of only 26%, worst in the league. He looked especially lost in the first quarter, when he went 2-of-5 for 14 yards (one of those completions lost yardage) with two sacks and an interception.
26.
Cooper Rush DAL
8/13
64
0
0
2
-48
-48
0
TB
All of Rush's dropbacks came with Dallas down by 16 points in the fourth quarter.
27.
Derek Carr LV
22/37
295
2
3
5
-53
-53
0
LAC
Well here's an extreme split: Carr had the NFL's best DYAR on throws to his right, going 12-of-15 for 145 yards and a touchdown. But he had the NFL's worst DYAR on throws to his left, going 5-of-15 for 80 yards with one touchdown and a pair of interceptions.
28.
Trey Lance SF
13/28
164
0
1
2
-59
-64
5
CHI
The Bears went up 13-10 with 12:45 left in the fourth quarter—plenty of time for Lance to lead the 49ers to a comeback. Instead, he only threw for one more first down the rest of the game, going 5-of-14 for 43 yards with an interception. He had the week's worst DYAR on short throws (no deeper than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), going 10-of-22 for 69 yards with an interception.
29.
Dak Prescott DAL
14/29
134
0
1
2
-63
-70
7
TB
From the 9:13 mark of the first quarter to the 2:34 of the third—over 30 minutes of game time—Prescott failed to throw for a single first down. In that stretch, he went 3-of-13 for 14 yards (not a typo) with two sacks and an interception.
30.
Aaron Rodgers GB
22/34
195
0
1
4
-63
-63
0
MIN
Rodgers had the NFL's worst DYAR on deep passes, going 1-for-5 for 23 yards with an interception. To be fair, that's not entirely his fault.
31.
Baker Mayfield CAR
16/27
235
1
1
4
-70
-50
-20
CLE
Mayfield's average completion gained a league-best 9.3 yards after the catch. He ran for a 7-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, but also put three balls on the ground on a trio of aborted snaps. Kyler Murray led the NFL in aborted snaps last season, but he never had three in a game.
32.
Matthew Stafford LAR
29/41
240
1
3
7
-130
-133
3
BUF
Stafford had the week's worst DYAR on throws down the middle, going 4-of-9 for 31 yards and a pair of interceptions. On a related note, he was also last on throws to tight ends, going 5-of-11 for 39 yards and an interception.
33.
Joe Burrow CIN
33/53
338
2
4
7
-147
-156
9
PIT
Burrow spent the bulk of this game in scoring range, trying (but mostly failing) to put points on the board. He had 31 dropbacks inside the Steelers' 40-yard line, going 11-of-28 for 98 yards with two touchdowns, two interceptions, three sacks, and a fumble.
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
D'Andre Swift DET
15
144
1
3/3
31
0
74
57
17
PHI
Swift ran for five first downs against the Eagles; four of them gained 10 yards or more, including a 50-yarder, and the other was a 7-yard touchdown. Meanwhile, he was stuffed for no gain just one time. Two of his receptions also resulted in first downs.
2.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC
7
42
0
3/3
32
2
52
11
41
ARI
Edwards-Helaire ran for only one first down, an 18-yarder, but then he was also stuffed just one time. His three receptions: 25-yard gain on first-and-10, and 3- and 4-yard touchdowns.
3.
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL
22
120
1
3/5
16
0
46
51
-5
NO
Though Patterson's longest run gained only 15 yards, he picked up 10 first downs while only being stuffed one time. His best catch was a 10-yard gain on third-and-10.
4.
Nick Chubb CLE
22
141
0
1/1
2
0
44
49
-6
CAR
Chubb was only stuffed twice while picking up a half-dozen first downs, including gains of 11, 16, 20, and 25 yards.
5.
Dontrell Hilliard TEN
2
8
0
3/4
61
2
42
1
41
NYG
Hilliard didn't run very often against the Giants, but he had a trio of big catches: 23- and 7-yard touchdowns and a 31-yard gain on third-and-3.
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
D'Andre Swift DET
15
144
1
3/3
31
0
74
57
17
PHI
2.
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL
22
120
1
3/5
16
0
46
51
-5
NO
3.
Jonathan Taylor IND
31
161
1
4/7
14
0
23
51
-28
HOU
The bad news is that Taylor was stuffed a half-dozen times. The good news is that he ran for nine first downs, including five gains of 10 yards or more.
4.
Nick Chubb CLE
22
141
0
1/1
2
0
44
49
-6
CAR
5.
Miles Sanders PHI
13
96
1
2/2
9
0
40
45
-5
DET
Sanders was stuffed twice but ran four first downs, including two 25-yard gains and a 13-yarder.
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Breece Hall NYJ
6
23
0
6/10
38
0
-31
0
-31
BAL
Hall ran for only one first down while being stuffed twice. (All six of his carries came on first-and-10, oddly.) Only two of his receptions moved the sticks, and he fumbled after a 6-yard catch in the fourth quarter.
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Joe Mixon CIN
27
82
0
7/9
63
0
-10
-34
24
PIT
Thirty-one of Mixon's 82 yards came on one carry, and he only had one other first down on the day. Meanwhile, the Steelers stuffed him nine times.
Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Justin Jefferson MIN
9
11
184
20.4
2
82
GB
Jefferson's two touchdowns went for 5 and 36 yards; his other nine catches included gains of 20, 21, 22, and 64 yards.
2.
Travis Kelce KC
8
9
121
15.1
1
68
ARI
Seven of Kelce's catches picked up first downs, including a 9-yard touchdown and gains of 18, 26, and 35 yards. The other catch was a 7-yard gain on first-and-10.
3.
Stefon Diggs BUF
8
9
122
15.2
1
53
LAR
Diggs picked up five first downs, the longest a 53-yard touchdown on third-and-4.
4.
Devin Duvernay BAL
4
4
54
13.5
2
45
NYJ
All four of Duvernay's receptions were successful; the best were a 25-yard touchdown on third-and-5 and a 17-yard touchdown on third-and-10.
5.
Cooper Kupp LAR
13
15
128
9.8
1
44
BUF
There was a lot of dink-and-dunk in Kupp's numbers—only six of his 13 receptions gained first downs—but he had three catches that gained 20-plus yards and also scored a 4-yard touchdown.
Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Diontae Johnson PIT
7
12
55
7.9
0
-55
CIN
Johnson's raw totals don't look too bad, and he might have won you a PPR matchup, but he didn't do much to help the Steelers win. Only two of his catches gained first downs; none of the others gained more than 9 yards. He only converted one of his four targets on third down. And he fumbled after a 6-yard catch in the fourth quarter.

Comments

78 comments, Last at 17 Sep 2022, 2:50pm

#1 by Israel P. - Ashkelon // Sep 13, 2022 - 5:08am

The worst running back and the lowest ranked quarterback faced the same defense. Last year's worst run defense.

Points: 0

#14 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 9:18am

The bottom of the table was last year's SB QBs, plus last year's MVP and the QB of the NFC runner-up. Tom Brady and Dak Prescott played a game won by the QB who was least bad. It was a strange week.

Points: 0

#22 by Pat // Sep 13, 2022 - 10:34am

Not only that, Denver and Tennessee both got top 5 QB play and their opponents got significantly worse: and they both lost.

Points: 0

#23 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 10:42am

I wonder about opponent corrections, though. Seattle's defense was terrible last year.

Points: 0

#26 by Pat // Sep 13, 2022 - 11:04am

Sure, but when you're looking at the results of a game, you want to look at performance without opponent corrections. Football's not handicapped.

Points: 0

#27 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 11:19am

DYAR is inherently handicapped. That's what the D is.

Points: 0

#30 by Pat // Sep 13, 2022 - 12:26pm

The values in the table are actually YAR, not DYAR. No opponent corrections yet.

Points: 0

#39 by Pat // Sep 13, 2022 - 2:05pm

I don't think so. Although the crazy thing is that if you look at the Week 1 table it shows 293 YAR, 293 DYAR (no adjustments), and then in the main table it shows 291. The rush is the same in both (-10), the pass is 1 different (303 vs 302) but somehow add them together and it's two off.

If memory serves there may be some non-opponent based corrections in DYAR that still get used early on. But I'm pretty sure Quick Reads early on has zero opponent corrections at all.

Points: 0

#44 by Eddo // Sep 13, 2022 - 3:15pm

Well that just seems like a rounding "error".  The "302" could actually be something like 301.6, and the "-10" might be something like -10.4.  Summed, those would be 291.2, which rounds to "291".

Points: 0

#46 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:10pm

1) The article was written before Monday Night Football. Every game has an effect on league-wide baselines and averages, which means there was some fluctuation in the numbers after the Broncos-Seahawks game. Usually these changes are miniscule, but there can be some fairly dramatic ripples in Week 1 due to small sample sizes.

2) We only publish DYAR in whole numbers, but we have it calculated out to several decimal points. Which means, yes, rounding errors can happen.

3) No opponent adjustments in Quick Reads yet. Trying to forecast overall defensive quality is difficult enough; trying to project which defenses will be best or worst by position is a fool's errand.

Points: 0

#72 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 14, 2022 - 9:05am

Why not just wait until after MNF? I'm not in a rush to get these articles and I imagine it just being one game it can be pounded out pretty quick.

Points: 0

#75 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 14, 2022 - 4:19pm

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Because it sometimes takes a full day to write and if I wait until after the game, it won't go up until Tuesday evening. And I appreciate that you are patient but not everyone is -- overwhelming feedback has been to get this up ASAP, which is why it goes up in the middle of the night, before anyone has a chance to edit it, and sometimes that means a typo or two gets through.

Now, all of that said: I should have updated Mahomes' numbers in the main article and table. I guess it's not too late, I'll do it right now. 

Points: 0

#31 by Dr. Mooch // Sep 13, 2022 - 12:35pm

Pittsburg's rushing defense ranked 27th in DVOA in 2021

Points: 0

#2 by Raiderfan // Sep 13, 2022 - 5:28am

“We triple-checked this, and it's true: Tom Brady had the week's worst DYAR on third/fourth downs, going 2-of-7 for 17 yards with two conversions, two sacks, and two interceptions.”

Then why do you only credit him with one interception in his stat line?

Points: 0

#18 by Aaron Schatz // Sep 13, 2022 - 9:39am

In reply to by Raiderfan

Fixed!

Points: 0

#3 by nat // Sep 13, 2022 - 7:21am

Jones and his receivers weren't very effective on throws down the middle. He went 4-of-7 on those passes for only 33 yards with an interception by Jones and a fumble by Nelson Agholor.

The interception was on a pass to the side of the end zone. You might have seen the highlight. You should remove that from the comment, if you still want to talk about “the middle”.

If you’re counting passes marked as middle in the game book, he did go 4 of 7, and Agholor did fumble. But the other three receptions went for first downs, which is a plus.

I tried to rephrase your comment to reflect what actually happened, but 4-of-7 with 3 first downs and a receiver’s fumble does not sound remarkably bad for the QB.

It’s probably better instead to note how much the sack-fumble and hold-tip-interception cost his DYAR. High leverage shit-happens plays killed him.

Points: 0

#33 by nat // Sep 13, 2022 - 1:00pm

Jones’ interception was not to the middle, but in the end zone near the sideline. You should fix that.

Points: 0

#47 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:14pm

Thank you. This has been fixed.

Points: 0

#68 by nat // Sep 13, 2022 - 8:34pm

Thank you.

It’s early in the season, and almost everybody is a little rusty. QBs, receivers, refs, writers, fans… It’s to be expected. You guys are among the best at fixing mistakes when they happen. Love the site. Have since the dark ages of DPAR.

Points: 0

#4 by Rocco // Sep 13, 2022 - 7:38am

Johnson's raw totals don't look too bad, and he might have won you a PPR matchup, but he didn't do much to help the Steelers win.

 

Ahem:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qi0OJchQfQ

 

 

Points: 0

#48 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:14pm

I said he didn't do MUCH. I didn't say he didn't do ANYTHING.

Points: 0

#6 by Mike B. In Va // Sep 13, 2022 - 8:07am

The Cardinals guaranteed him $15 million in March of 2018, then gave him three starts before benching him for Josh Rosen and releasing him in November.

I had managed to forget that. Imagine thinking Josh Rosen was the answer.

Points: 0

#36 by serutan // Sep 13, 2022 - 1:36pm

To be fair, when Rosen was drafted opinions were split on whether he'd bust or not.   But from today's perspective, that statement is spot on.

Points: 0

#49 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:16pm

I watched every game of that Cardinals season for Football Outsiders Almanac and came away with the impression that Rosen was your run-of-the-mill bad rookie stuck on a terrible franchise. The fact that he actually got worse after leaving Arizona is baffling to me.

Points: 0

#7 by reggieDunlop // Sep 13, 2022 - 8:24am

Burrow and Stafford were the worst 2 QB's in week one BY FAR according to DYAR... yikes! 

Points: 0

#71 by LionInAZ // Sep 13, 2022 - 10:31pm

You must have not watched the games last year when Kupp got open on deep passes for TDs.

Points: 0

#9 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 13, 2022 - 8:36am

Can't really blame Russ like pocket 

watching Dick Sherman

Points: 0

#10 by peterplaysbass // Sep 13, 2022 - 8:51am

I rarely log in and comment, and I want to say that I always appreciate the Quick Reads on Tuesdays before I ask about a typo.

The commentary on Jalen Hurts (QB #9) says "Mills' average depth of target..." and I'm wondering if that's about their RB Miles or of it is meant to refer to Hurts (Davis Mills is the next QB in the list)

Thanks!

Points: 0

#50 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:17pm

Fixed. Thank you.

Points: 0

#11 by peterplaysbass // Sep 13, 2022 - 8:57am

Sam Bradford, MIN, 2017: ...When Teddy Bridgewater tore his ACL in training camp, the Vikings traded for Bradford. He was the king of the checkdown that year, finishing first in completion percentage but last in yards per completion. He opened 2017 by ripping up the Saints for 346 yards and three touchdowns, but accumulated injuries limited him to only one more game the rest of the year...

(sigh)

2017 broke me as a Vikings fan. I really thought Teddy was the answer and then that Bradford's 2nd year would unlock everything (he had no offseason with the Vikings before 2016), and then, finally, that Case Keenum was our destiny - our Cinderella story.

(sigh)

Fun fact: Bradford was placed on IR on his birthday.

(sigh)

What a bitter offseason it was when all three QBs were removed from the roster.

Points: 0

#13 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 9:12am

Mills' average depth of target was a league-low 4.1 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Hurts, surely?

Points: 0

#16 by andrewmilne // Sep 13, 2022 - 9:33am

I'm a little surprised he didn't make the table or merit a comment

Points: 0

#17 by champ91 // Sep 13, 2022 - 9:35am

I would have expected him to be listed at least on the top 5 rushing chart, which 164 yards and over 9 yards an attempt. While I know most of his yards were on home runs, I also don't remember him getting stuffed all that much. 

Points: 0

#19 by Aaron Schatz // Sep 13, 2022 - 9:42am

Barkley was eighth with 40 rushing YAR but surprisingly -3 receiving YAR.

Points: 0

#20 by Travis // Sep 13, 2022 - 9:48am

Barkley's downfield fumble that went out of bounds surely hurt his DYAR, and his game-winning two-point conversion isn't counted in DYAR at all.

Points: 0

#21 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 13, 2022 - 10:32am

5.6 ypc is still good. Just boosted by a league leading long 68 yarder

Points: 0

#32 by KnotMe // Sep 13, 2022 - 12:37pm

I didn't know two point conversions didn't count at all. That's surprising. 

Points: 0

#52 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:24pm

Barkley's fumble came at the end of a 33-yard run and basically negated the play. (To be precise, that play was worth -0.5 DYAR.) The Giants recovered the fumble, so in the eyes of EPA and similar stats, it never happened, but it counts in our numbers. Also, he was only stuffed twice, but one of those was a mega-stuff for a 6-yard loss on first-and-10; that basically wipes out his 15-yard gain in the second quarter. It was a good day, but a little boom-and-bust -- nearly 80% of his yardage came on just four carries, and one of those four ended in a fumble.

Points: 0

#24 by theslothook // Sep 13, 2022 - 10:50am

I remember in 2018 week 1 seeing this guy throw for six touchdowns against the Steelers. I knew who he was because the Chiefs had traded two first to acquire him, But I'd never heard of him until that day.

I made a mental note about how it was possible that someone who had never played down of football in the NFL could bust out six touchdowns just like that. 

I made a mental note to follow that guy Mahomes.

That said, I'd probably harbor some negativity to Mahomes if my team were a contender/if they had a rival QB playing at the same time

Points: 0

#43 by t.d. // Sep 13, 2022 - 3:10pm

he actually started the last game of the 2017 season;  I'd actually wondered at the time whether Andy would roll the dice and give him a shot in the playoff game (the one they lost in a big comeback to Tennessee after Kelce got hurt), but I'd guess he remembers  the roasting Wade Phillips got for starting Rob Johnson over Flutie (and Alex Smith had been great that season, an MVP candidate)

Points: 0

#45 by apocalipstick // Sep 13, 2022 - 3:28pm

I remember watching that game and thinking that he had things you simply can't teach: his ball got to the spot so quickly (which is a little different than the simple 'throw ball 80 yards' strong arm), his release was so quick, his accuracy so spot-on, and his ball seemed so catchable.

 

But Mitchell Trubisky was taller.

Points: 0

#53 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:37pm

But Mitchell Trubisky was taller.

That was Jack Traven's only advantage against Howard Payne.

Points: 0

#28 by big10freak // Sep 13, 2022 - 11:42am

Not a surprise that by all accounts Jake Hanson graded out horribly on pass blocking. Nobody in my circle could understand why he was starting as even in camp he was getting thumped.  Why not Tom at RT and Newman at RG?

 

Think GB gets too cute on o line configuration.  The last two playoff losses can be pegged to both times coaches saying after the fact they played the wrong mix. 
 

Feel bad for Hanson.  He’s just not ready to play in the pros.  

Points: 0

#34 by Egtuna // Sep 13, 2022 - 1:19pm

Aikman retired because of BACK issues. NOT concussions. How many times do people have to get this story wrong?

During a late December 2013 radio interview, Aikman said the real reason he retired was due to persistent back issues he had in his final season.

 

Points: 0

#37 by serutan // Sep 13, 2022 - 1:42pm

The scary part about this is that means Aikman was fortunate to be having back problems.

Points: 0

#38 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 1:44pm

This is somewhat revisionist. He mentioned both in his retirement press conference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-WNgfeYORQ

Points: 0

#40 by theslothook // Sep 13, 2022 - 2:13pm

Despite the fact that he plays in the same division, I haven't seen a lot of Trevor. I will say, given the predraft expectations, his career has been quite disappointing. I only caught the tail end of this week's game, where the team was trying to comeback. Three straight dropbacks produced three straight instant pressures; with the last one causing Lawrence to heave a prayer shot while simultaneously bracing himself for a big hit, which caused the throw to become an airmailed interception. 

Going back in my mind, the only players I can remember who were touted as all time, can't miss prospects that missed badly was Robert Gallery. Maybe also Jonathan Cooper.

The list of players who have gotten the all time hype, again going off memory, include:

Reggie Bush. Clowney. Andrew Luck. Calvin Johnson. Suh. and Trevor. Maybe also include Myles Garrett. 

Points: 0

#41 by Pat // Sep 13, 2022 - 3:03pm

I honestly can't remember a draft other than this past one that several of the top guys didn't get "all time" hype. Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Barkley, Garrett. Barkley especially, there's no way an RB goes that high without getting "all time" hype anymore.

Points: 0

#42 by theslothook // Sep 13, 2022 - 3:09pm

I'll include Saquon. I don't think the Bosas were in that conversation. Chase Young maybe. But Clowney had that cache where you hear about him way before the season has concluded. I don't follow college football so I serve as a nice acid test. If I have heard of you way before the draft, that's usually a good litmus test 

Points: 0

#62 by Pat // Sep 13, 2022 - 6:39pm

Nick Bosa was absolutely touted as can't miss. That one was easy: Joey Bosa was already blowing things up so it was like "okay, that's easy." And then Young was an honorary Bosa, so it was the same thing.

As far as I can tell legacy pass rushers are like, the safest damn pick in the draft.

Points: 0

#54 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:40pm

Reggie Bush. Clowney. Andrew Luck. Calvin Johnson. Suh. and Trevor. Maybe also include Myles Garrett. 

Which isn't a bad list.

Johnson is in the HOF. Suh probably will be (you'll scoff until you see his HOFm score and his comps -- it will take a bit, but he'll be in). Luck had a solid chance if he hadn't turned into a glass cannon. Bush didn't live up to his hype, but he was a pretty solid starter for a bunch of years.

Points: 0

#58 by theslothook // Sep 13, 2022 - 5:13pm

I do think that of all these players, only CJ turned into the player everyone sort of expected of him. I guess Suh did as well, though I think people expected a warren sapp/aaron Donald level career. Basically a dpoy candidate and while Suh was very very good for a good chunk of time, he was never viewed among the very best defensive players ever. 

Even before Luck was broken in half, he was never an elite QB. Even giving him a huge supporting casts/coaching curve grading; he just made too many mistakes. His last year with Reich is particularly sad for me; the ultimate what could have been. 

Points: 0

#59 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 5:30pm

Suh never turned into Sapp, but he did turn into Karras.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_DT.htm

 

Points: 0

#63 by Pat // Sep 13, 2022 - 6:47pm

Suh's a DT. That's a huge black mark. He also migrated around the league a ton, which could either help (more sportswriter fans!) or hurt (no loyalty!).

Who knows what the hell the Hall will do with him. They'll probably keep him out to, I dunno, enshrine a gunner, long snapper, or a third-string Chiefs QB or something.

Points: 0

#74 by Pat // Sep 14, 2022 - 1:15pm

Jordan Love!

5 years prior: 0 Green Bay QB MVPs.
2 years of Love's career: 2 Green Bay QB MVPs.

Clearly more impact than some random defensive tackle guy. No one on Suh's teams ever won MVP!

Points: 0

#55 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:40pm

Going back in my mind, the only players I can remember who were touted as all time, can't miss prospects that missed badly was Robert Gallery.

Aaron Curry.

Points: 0

#56 by apocalipstick // Sep 13, 2022 - 4:55pm

Does Vernon Gholston count, or was his tenure at Ohio State too short?

Points: 0

#57 by theslothook // Sep 13, 2022 - 5:03pm

Yes. Aaron Curry definitely works. Geez I forgot all about him. He mostly has escaped the all time bust list, probably because he played off ball linebacker and so has limited embarassing highlights and he didn't do any kind of self promotion. 

Points: 0

#61 by KaosTheory // Sep 13, 2022 - 6:30pm

Gosh, Aaron Curry. No clue when I last thought about that guy. 
 

this thread has major “let’s remember some guys” energy lol

Points: 0

#60 by LyleNM // Sep 13, 2022 - 5:44pm

Tony Mandarich.

Jamarcus Russell seems like he should count but he really doesn't.

Points: 0

#64 by apocalipstick // Sep 13, 2022 - 7:03pm

In reply to by LyleNM

Two memories of Mandarich:

Supposedly after the first snap of TC, one of the coaches said, "He can't play." Apocryphal, but trenchant.

The other is the loss of 60 lbs. in the wake of a particularly comprehensive report on the long-term damage of the use of anabolic steroids. His response to skepticism regarding his newly svelte silhouette was his contention that it was all the result of a change in diet.  I guess.

Points: 0

#67 by Will Allen // Sep 13, 2022 - 7:57pm

I'll say this much for Mandarich: coming back, after being out of the league two years, beating a painkiller addiction, and starting 32 more games over 3 years, as the entire football world is laughing at you as the biggest bust of all time,9 takes some persistance. Don't know much about him as a human being these days, in terms of ethics, but he ain't a quitter.

Points: 0

#73 by LyleNM // Sep 14, 2022 - 11:54am

And circling back to Robert Gallery - he was actually a pretty serviceable guard for a number of years. Just not the generational left tackle that he was supposed to be.

Points: 0

#69 by rpwong // Sep 13, 2022 - 10:17pm

Vince, I'd like to request that the tables be rendered in a more legible font, as used to be the case. I like how you can hover over rows to highlight them, but I feel like I'm really struggling to read whatever that newspaper-style font is. It's impossible to read the tables at a glance.

Side note: having spent my third pick on Mahomes, I'm perfectly happy to be told that he'll probably have a great year.

Points: 0

#77 by BigBen07 // Sep 17, 2022 - 10:48am

Should have posted this last week after the Chiefs destroyed the Cardinals; at that point Mahomes had 300+ DYAR in 2 out of 3 games dating back to last year. I bet that's never been done before.

Points: 0

#78 by Vincent Verhei // Sep 17, 2022 - 2:50pm

I can do you one better: Nobody else has ever had two 300-DYAR games in their entire careers.

Points: 0

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