Taysom Hill Breaks Football Outsiders

New Orleans Saints all-purpose threat Taysom Hill
New Orleans Saints all-purpose threat Taysom Hill
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 5 - Well, it finally happened: Taysom Hill broke the Football Outsiders computers. For one glorious afternoon, he was one of the most dangerous players in the NFL … but you won't find him anywhere in our tables that list the best passers, runners, and receivers of Week 5.

Hill terrorized the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, rushing for 112 yards on only nine carries, a 12.4-yard average. And though he was explosive, it was his efficiency that really stood out; seven of those carries went for first downs. Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts was the only player to run for more first downs this week, and it took him five more carries (plus a kneeldown) to do it.

Hill's first downs include this 8-yard touchdown run in the second quarter…

… followed by this 9-yarder a few minutes later…

… and then the big one, this 60-yard go-ahead score on third-and-1 in the fourth quarter that was, by any measure, one of the biggest plays of the entire weekend.

Mind you, Hill wasn't just a runner. Although Hill has started nine NFL games as a quarterback, when the Saints put him in the shotgun on second-and-8 in scoring range late in the third quarter, the Seahawks seemed completely unprepared that he might throw the ball. Hill had an easy touchdown pass to Adam Trautman down the middle, but look close and you'll see J.P. Holtz all alone in the right side of the end zone too:

As alluded to in one of those Tweets, Hill made other contributions in this game, but for now let's focus on what he did as a runner and passer. Hill's nine carries amassed 57 DYAR as a rusher, and the touchdown pass to Trautman added 28 DYAR through the air. That's 85 total DYAR, more than any running back, wide receiver, or tight end this week, and more than most starting quarterbacks. So why didn't Hill, officially, qualify for Quick Reads?

  • He only threw one pass; the minimum for the quarterbacks table is eight, so he does not qualify as a quarterback.
  • He did not have a single target as a receiver, so he does not qualify as a wide receiver or tight end.
  • He is listed as a "QB/TE" in our database (the Saints are still listing him as a tight end), so our data parser did not qualify him as a running back.

Hill has been giving Quick Reads a headache for years now. After going undrafted in 2017, he spent three years in New Orleans as Sean Payton's favorite toy, throwing 13 passes, taking 64 runs, and catching 22 balls (not to mention his 16 punt and kickoff returns) in his first three seasons. He qualified as one of our top receivers in Week 8 of 2019 after catching three passes for 63 yards and a touchdown, but we noted at the time he was also the Saints' third-string quarterback. Hill was also one of the stars of the wild-card round that year, but we weren't sure what to do with a player who had 50 yards passing, 50 yards rushing, and 25 yards and a touchdown as a receiver, finally throwing our hands in the air and simply labeling him "Whatever" at the end of the column.

When Drew Brees missed four games in 2020 with broken ribs, Sean Payton made the curious decision to start Hill at quarterback ahead of Jameis Winston, who has proven himself before and since to be a low-end starter at worst. (Brees had also missed time in 2019, with Teddy Bridgewater starting in his absence instead of Hill.) The Saints won three of Hill's four starts that season, but he showed little sign of being a starter-caliber passer, finishing below replacement level in our numbers. With Brees retired in 2021, Payton wisely put Winston in the starting lineup and Hill back on the bench. Hill ended up playing anyway after Winston tore his ACL, and was probably better than he had been the year before, but it's hard to win consistently in the NFL when your quarterback is completing less than 60% of his passes. In Week 12 of that year, Hill threw four interceptions against Dallas and finished as the league's worst passer (but not the worst quarterback, thanks to his rushing value), and we wrote that his days as a starter should be over. Indeed, Hill has returned to third-string status behind Winston and Andy Dalton this year … although, as Mike Tanier accurately pointed out, the Saints have actually been most dangerous with Hill taking snaps.

Regardless, per Stathead, Hill is now the 13th player since at least 1950 with three rushing touchdowns and a passing touchdown in the same game. The last to do it was Dak Prescott in Week 2 of the 2020 season in a big comeback against Atlanta. Before that, you have to go back to Russell Wilson and Cam Newton in their rookie years of 2012 and 2011. It has been done just once in the playoffs, by Cleveland's Otto Graham against Detroit in the 1954 NFL Championship Game. Johnny Lujack, the oldest living winner of the Heisman Trophy, did it for the Bears in 1951 against the New York Yanks. (Lujack is a distant relative of a contemporary versatile player: L.A. Rams WR/FB Ben Skowronek.)

That's a long list of quarterbacks, but Hill is mainly a rusher these days. Hill joins Ronnie Brown in 2008 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2005 as the only players with a passing touchdown, three rushing touchdowns, and at least 100 rushing yards in a single game. Brown's game was the breakout performance for the Wildcat formation in the NFL, as the Patriots had no idea what to do against a running back taking direct snaps in a 38-13 Dolphins win. There's nothing historically influential about Tomlinson's outing; he just happened to throw one of his seven career touchdown passes on the same day he ran for nearly 200 yards against an overmatched Giants defense.

Now, as we said earlier, Hill's impact on Sunday's game went beyond what he did on offense. He was also New Orleans' primary kickoff returner, averaging 23.0 yards on a trio of returns. That makes Hill the first player in over 20 years with a passing touchdown, rushing touchdown, and kickoff return in the same game (and the first since Lenny Moore in 1956 to do that with multiple rushing scores). The last time we saw that was in 2001 by Deuce McAllister of … the New Orleans Saints. (You get enough beignets, Cher, and you can do crazy things.) There have only been 15 such games since the late 1940s.

And somehow this is still selling Hill's game short, because he also recovered a fumble on a fake punt. He even made plays without the ball in his hands, making the key block that let Alvin Kamara run for a first down, putting New Orleans in position to kneel out the clock from there.

Hill won't be putting up games like this every week, but the Saints are clearly going to make his rushing ability a big part of their offense; he had four carries for 81 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta in Week 1, and five for 21 and a score against Minnesota in the U.K. In total, he has 228 rushing yards and five touchdowns this season; the former figure would rank in the top five amongst quarterbacks, and the latter puts him amongst the top five of all players, regardless of position. In fact, if you count him as a quarterback, Hill is second only to Lamar Jackson with 90 rushing DYAR through five weeks thanks to those five scores and his 10.9 yards per carry.

It took six years and 69 games, but the Saints' do-it-all player may have finally found his niche. As a quarterback, he wasn't much of a starter, but he has turned into a hell of a closer.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Josh Allen BUF
20/31
424
4
1
0
206
195
11
PIT
For typical quarterbacks, deep passes and yards after the catch are an either/or proposition: you can either throw short and let your guys rack up the YAC, or you can chuck it long and let them win jump balls. But as I said, those are the rules for typical quarterbacks, and Josh Allen is no typical quarterback. He led all passers with a 13.3-yard average depth of target, but still averaged an NFL-best 10.1 yards after the catch per completion. And yes, the 98-yard touchdown to Gabriel Davis (38 air yards, 60 yards after the catch) had a lot to do with both those stats. It's also largely why Allen was the week's best passer on third/fourth downs (4-of-6, 174 yards, four conversions, two touchdowns) and on throws down the middle of the field (8-of-10 for 230 yards and two scores, plus a 4-yard DPI).
2.
Patrick Mahomes KC
29/43
292
4
0
3
137
126
10
LV
I was out and didn't see much of this game, but I wanted to say that Travis Kelce's absurd statline (seven catches, eight targets, 25 yards, four touchdowns) had me giggling. That's 25 yards and 3.6 yards per catch; as our own Bryan Knowles pointed out on the FO Discord server, the prior records for players with at least four touchdown catches were 93 and 9.3, both by Detroit's Marvin Jones against Minnesota in 2019.
3.
Kyler Murray ARI
28/40
250
1
1
1
132
113
18
PHI
Murray gains 44 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Thanks in part to those opponent adjustments, he was the week's best passer in the fourth quarter (10-of-11 for 58 yards), but still its worst on deep balls (0-for-6 with an interception). As opposed to…
4.
Geno Smith SEA
16/25
268
3
0
3
119
116
3
NO
… this guy! Smith was the week's best passer on deep balls, going 4-of-5 for 157 yards and three touchdowns, plus a 27-yard DPI. If this sounds familiar, he was also the best passer on deep balls last week.
5.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF
18/30
253
2
0
2
118
118
0
CAR
It probably won't surprise you to hear that Garoppolo had the league's best DYAR on throws to running backs (6-of-7 for 83 yards and a touchdown). But what if I told you that he was also the best passer on throws to the outside (16-of-23 for 203 yards and two scores, plus an 8-yard DPI)? Really! Jimmy Garoppolo!
6.
Kirk Cousins MIN
32/40
296
1
1
1
110
98
12
CHI
Fun with directional splits: Cousins had the week's best DYAR on throws to his left (17-of-18 for 174 yards), but the worst on throws to his right (7-of-13 for 51 yards with an interception).
7.
Tom Brady TB
35/52
351
1
0
0
101
101
0
ATL
Brady loses 26 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, tied with Andy Dalton and Jalen Hurts for most this week. His goal-line touchdown pass to Leonard Fournette put Tampa Bay up 21-0, but he threw for only one first down after that, going 5-of-11 for only 26 yards as Atlanta rallied and made this win more difficult for Tampa Bay than it should have been.
8.
Daniel Jones NYG
21/27
217
0
0
1
93
89
4
GB
Jones had the week's worst DYAR on throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, going 6-of-9 for all of 7 yards. Two of those completions lost yardage, none gained first downs, and only one counted as a successful play. However, he was tremendous after halftime, going 13-of-14 for 136 yards. He was virtually tied for most second-half DYAR with…
9.
Kenny Pickett PIT
34/52
327
0
1
3
92
85
7
BUF
… this guy! Pickett was especially effective in the third quarter, when he went 10-of-12 for 108 yards, plus a 7-yard DPI and a pair of sacks. We should probably point out that each of those 15 plays came with Pittsburgh trailing by 28 points, and that Pickett gains a league-high 54 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
10.
Justin Fields CHI
15/21
208
1
0
2
80
74
6
MIN
Fields' arsenal this year has mainly consisted of 1) handoffs, 2) scrambles, 3) sacks, and 4) deep shots, more or less in that order. But on Sunday, he was actually the NFL's top passer on throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, completing all five of his passes for 49 yards and a touchdown.
11.
Justin Herbert LAC
22/34
228
1
0
1
70
78
-8
CLE
Herbert had a weirdly concentrated passing chart:
12.
Bailey Zappe NE
17/21
188
1
1
0
67
88
-21
DET
You know your defense is bad when you allow a third-stringer like Zappe to gain successful yardage on 65% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. It wasn't all sunshine and kittens for Zappe, though. He had the league's worst DYAR on throws down the middle (1-of-2 for 10 yards with an interception), and his three runs gained only 6 yards and no first downs, with a fumble for good measure.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13.
Jacoby Brissett CLE
21/34
230
1
1
0
64
48
16
LAC
Brissett didn't get a lot of help from his receivers—his average completion gained just 3.3 yards after the catch, fewest of any qualified passer.
14.
Jalen Hurts PHI
26/36
239
0
0
2
55
19
36
ARI
Hurts loses 26 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, tied with Tom Brady and Andy Dalton for most this week. His league-best 62 rushing DYAR came on 14 carries for 62 yards and two touchdowns. His average depth of target was a league-low 3.8 yards; he only threw three deep balls (completing two for 53 yards), but he threw 16 passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, completing 13 for 68 yards. Four of those completions lost yardage.
15.
Aaron Rodgers GB
25/39
222
2
0
2
53
53
0
NYG
Rodgers' average dropback came with a league-low 7.6 yards to go for a first down. He only had three dropbacks with more than 10 yards to go, but 15 with 7 yards or less, and he converted nine of them (including two touchdowns).
16.
Zach Wilson NYJ
14/21
210
0
0
2
45
31
14
MIA
Even though the Jets scored 40 points in this game, Wilson only threw one pass in the red zone. (It was incomplete.) Instead, the Jets ran 10 times for 39 yards and five scores inside the Dolphins' 20, including Wilson's touchdown on a scramble on third-and-goal from the 5.
17.
Derek Carr LV
20/30
241
2
0
2
36
38
-2
KC
18.
Davis Mills HOU
16/24
140
0
0
1
24
23
0
JAX
Mills didn't throw a single pass in the red zone. Houston only had two plays in the red zone, from the 1- and 2-yard lines, and they handed off to Dameon Pierce both times.
19.
Trevor Lawrence JAX
25/46
286
0
2
0
17
8
9
HOU
Lawrence threw five passes in the red zone, completing one to his own team (a 3-yard gain on first-and-10) and one to the Texans.
20.
Joe Burrow CIN
24/35
217
1
1
2
12
14
-1
BAL
Burrow had nine failed completions against the Ravens, and those nine completions gained 41 yards, putting him in the top three in both categories.
21.
Lamar Jackson BAL
19/32
174
1
1
1
11
-4
15
CIN
Jackson had the league's best DYAR on throws to tight ends, going 10-of-13 for 96 yards and a touchdown. If that sounds familiar, it should; it's the third time in the last four weeks Jackson has finished first in that category.
22.
Marcus Mariota ATL
14/25
147
1
0
5
-6
-29
23
TB
Mariota was the week's worst passer from under center, going 1-for-4 for zero yards with two sacks and a fumble. At least he can still run—Mariota gained 61 yards on seven carries against Tampa Bay.
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23.
Carson Wentz WAS
25/38
359
2
1
3
-8
6
-14
TEN
Wentz's four carries against Tennessee gained only 14 yards and resulted in a pair of fumbles. He was the week's worst passer in a variety of categories, including third/fourth downs (3-of-10, 17 yards, one conversion, one interception, one sack), throws to running backs (8-of-11, 70 yards, only one first down, with an interception), and in the fourth quarter (13-of-18, 98 yards, one 14-yard DPI, one interception). The common denominator of those categories is the interception Wentz threw on third-and-goal from the 2 with Washington trailing 21-17 and nine seconds to go. That one play was worth -73 DYAR, the single worst total for any passing play so far this season.
24.
Skylar Thompson MIA
19/33
166
0
1
2
-11
-11
0
NYJ
Say what you will about Thompson, but Miami's third-stringer was terribly effective on throws down the middle, going 5-of-6 for 69 yards; all five of those completions picked up first downs.
25.
Andy Dalton NO
16/24
187
1
1
1
-14
-16
3
SEA
Dalton loses 26 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, tied with Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts for most this week. He had a bad day on second downs, going 3-of-8 for 63 yards. Fifty-four of those yards came on one completion to Alvin Kamara, a completion that lost 4 yards through the air but gained 58 after the catch.
26.
Matthew Stafford LAR
28/42
308
1
1
5
-33
-33
0
DAL
Stafford gains 49 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He threw a league-high 11 failed completions. He was also the worst quarterback of the week in the no-huddle; though he went 4-of-5 for 56 yards, he also gave up two sacks, a fumble, and an interception.
27.
Ryan Tannehill TEN
15/25
181
1
0
5
-36
-26
-10
WAS
Tannehill's three carries against Washington gained only 3 yards with no first downs, not even any successful plays. But he was the week's best passer in the red zone, going 4-of-5 for 39 yards and a touchdown.
28.
Baker Mayfield CAR
20/36
215
0
1
4
-38
-38
0
SF
In a week when six backup quarterbacks (including a pair of third-stringers) saw enough pass attempts to qualify for these tables, it was alleged starter Baker Mayfield who had the league's lowest success rate at 28%. That's the kind of stat that'll get a coach fired.
29.
Jared Goff DET
19/35
229
0
1
2
-62
-56
-6
NE
Goff did almost nothing once crossing midfield. He threw for only one first down in New England territory, going 7-of-20 for 35 yards with two sacks, one fumble (returned for a Patriots touchdown), and one interception.
30.
Russell Wilson DEN
21/39
274
0
2
4
-69
-80
11
IND
Wilson failed to throw for a single first down in the red zone, where he finished 1-of-6 for 5 yards with an interception and a sack.
31.
Cooper Rush DAL
10/16
102
0
0
3
-91
-90
-1
LAR
Rush had the week's worst DYAR in the first quarter, going 2-of-4 for 9 yards with a sack and a fumble.
32.
Matt Ryan IND
26/40
251
0
2
6
-116
-109
-7
DEN
Ryan was faced with very tough circumstances, gaining 41 DYAR due to opponent adjustments against the stout Denver defense and facing a league-high 10.7 yards to go for a first down … and he made the absolute worst of them. With more than 10 yards to go, he went 6-of-10 for 56 yards with one conversion, two sacks, one fumble, and an interception. He was the week's worst passer in the third quarter, going 3-of-8 for 13 yards with an interception.
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Derrick Henry TEN
28
102
2
2/2
30
0
72
47
25
WAS
Henry gains 25 DYAR due to opponent adjustments—Washington's run defense has quietly been pretty good this year. But the Commanders only stuffed Henry three times while allowing him to run for seven first downs, the longest a gain of 15 yards. That includes five conversions in six carries with 5 yards or less to go for a first down. Henry's two catches both came on second-and-7; one gained 24 yards, the other gained 6.
2.
Breece Hall NYJ
18
97
1
2/2
100
0
68
29
40
MIA
The Dolphins only stuffed Hall twice while allowing him to run for four first downs and four gains of 10 or more yards. His two catches: a 79-yard touchdown on first-and-10 and a 21-yard gain on second-and-9.
3.
Josh Jacobs LV
21
154
1
5/5
39
0
64
59
5
KC
4.
Austin Ekeler LAC
16
173
1
4/4
26
1
55
36
19
CLE
Ekeler loses 22 DYAR due to opponent adjustments; there is a reason the Browns traded for a linebacker a few hours after this game. Ekeler was stuffed just once while running for five first downs, each of which gained 10-plus yards, including a 22-yard touchdown and a 71-yard gain. His best catch was his touchdown on second-and-goal from the 12.
5.
Dalvin Cook MIN
18
94
2
2/2
27
0
53
38
15
CHI
The Bears only stuffed Cook once while letting him run for a half-dozen first downs, including four gains of 10-plus yards. His best catch was a 23-yard gain on third-and-10.
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Josh Jacobs LV
21
154
1
5/5
39
0
64
59
5
KC
2.
Derrick Henry TEN
28
102
2
2/2
30
0
72
47
25
WAS
3.
Jeff Wilson SF
17
120
1
1/2
12
0
50
46
4
CAR
Wilson ran for seven first downs against Carolina, including gains of 14, 16, 23, and 41 yards, while being stuffed just twice.
4.
Raheem Mostert MIA
18
113
1
1/3
9
0
39
42
-3
NYJ
The Jets stuffed Mostert twice, but each of his other 16 runs gained at least 3 yards. He ran for five first downs, including a 12-yard touchdown and gains of 20 and 24 yards.
5.
Tony Pollard DAL
8
86
1
0/0
0
0
40
40
0
LAR
Each of Pollard's eight carries gained at least 2 yards. Three went for first downs, the longest a 57-yarder.
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mark Ingram NO
9
16
0
0/0
0
0
-31
-31
0
SEA
None of Ingram's carries went for a first down; in fact, none even counted as a successful play or gained more than 4 yards. But hey, he was only stuffed once.
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Mark Ingram NO
9
16
0
0/0
0
0
-31
-31
0
SEA
Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Justin Jefferson MIN
12
13
154
12.8
0
82
CHI
Jefferson's totals include 19 passing DYAR for his 23-yard completion to Dalvin Cook on third-and-10. Nine of Jefferson's catches picked up first downs, including two third-down conversions. His longest catch was a 31-yard gain on third-and-2.
2.
Tyler Lockett SEA
5
6
104
20.8
2
62
NO
Four of Lockett's catches picked up first downs; the other was an 8-yard gain on first-and-10. His two touchdowns went for 35 and 40 yards.
3.
Gabriel Davis BUF
3
6
171
57.0
2
60
PIT
Each of Davis' catches moved the chains, including 62- and 98-yard touchdowns. He also had a 4-yard DPI.
4.
Jakobi Meyers NE
7
8
111
15.9
1
54
DET
Each of Meyers' seven catches gained at least 10 yards, and six picked up first downs, including a 24-yard touchdown.
5.
Tyreek Hill MIA
7
7
47
6.7
0
52
NYJ
Hill's totals include 13 rushing DYAR for his two carries for 13 yards. None of his catches gained more than 13 yards, only three picked up first downs, and he never found the end zone. So why did he make the top five this week? Because in addition to the plays listed here, he picked up a pair of DPIs for gains of 34 and 27 yards.
Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Zay Jones JAX
3
8
12
4.0
0
-43
HOU
Jones' only first down was a 7-yard gain on third-and-4. That was also his longest catch of the day; the others were a 2-yard gain on third-and-8 and a 3-yard gain on second-and-10.

Comments

90 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2022, 12:07am

#1 by Theo // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:42am

Kenny Pickett is clearly ranked too high  because he threw for just 121 yards before halftime, with 29 of those yards on a heroic jump ball by George Pickens, plus an interception on one of his few true shots downfield. Case Keenum was in the game for the Bills by the time Pickett started racking up empty-calorie yardage.

Early in the game, Pickett threw across his body into traffic while rolling right; the high throw glanced off his receiver's hands and was nearly intercepted. That's a sign that the rookie just isn't ready.

Points: 0

#3 by ChrisLong // Oct 11, 2022 - 6:59am

Why would anyone copy Tanier’s words from yesterday and present them as their own?

Points: 0

#15 by oconnk11 // Oct 11, 2022 - 8:48am

The even more shocking part to me was "just" 121 yards before halftime.

As a Panthers fan, 121 yards is more than I expect before garbage time 4th quarter.

Points: 0

#25 by Kaepernicus // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:56am

Unironically PJ Walker and a new coach makes the Panthers a scarier team next week. I know it was garbage time but Walker at least forced the 49ers to respect his legs and made the offense look mediocre instead of terrible+McCaffrey heroics. If the Panthers are smart though they should sign and start Josh Rosen to ensure the number 1 pick.

Points: 0

#38 by oconnk11 // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:52am

PJ Walker is pretty bad. His starts have not been good. But they definitely should be going for the #1 pick. It's not like the team is a SB contender but the talent on the team isn't bad at all. The QB play and coaching have been atrocious.

Points: 0

#73 by rpwong // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:40pm

If the Panthers are smart, they'll offer CMC to the highest bidder while his value is at its best. The Bills, Chief, Eagles, and 49ers would all get involved, if only to keep him away from other contenders.

They aren't going to get more value for him in the off-season, particularly if they run him into the ground and he finishes the season back on IR.

Points: 0

#36 by DocPossum // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:45am

Are you saying Tanier’s words aren’t good enough for plagiarism? How dare you sir! /s

Points: 0

#23 by Alex@ // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:41am

My favorite part is "rookie makes bad throw therefore isn't ready." Well, duh? Rookies make bad throws, and pretty much are never ready!

Wait, this isn't even your argument? Nevermind.

My Steelers friends, the ones who don't whine that this loss embarrassed the franchise, city, and their personal honor or whatever, had a take on this performance.

Someone brought up Belichick's "the best way to practice playing football is to play football," and posited that perhaps the Steelers knew they were outclassed for this game and brought their practice plays into the game plan.

I don't have the wherewithal to support this hypothesis - my knowledge of football begins and ends at The Spread - but several passes in the second half were described to me as supporting it. Mostly rollout passes where Pickett only has to work one side of the field, or other plays where I'm told he didn't have a bunch of reads to go through.

That sounds a lot like descriptions of Roethlisberger's rookie year, so I'm a little suspicious.

Obviously, Tomlin and co won't ever tell us. How could I go about convincing myself and/or others that something like this was in the plan? I'm not a film guy, but if I was, what would I look for?

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#48 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:25am

Their game plan looked pretty much like what you would do when you were starting a rookie against a team with a vicious pass rush. Funny, that.

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#54 by Theo // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:52am

2 yard runs (did Najee average that much?) into a pile of humanity on first and second down. 

Ignore the middle third of the field, everything towards the sidelines, like we always do. They wont expect that!

What a genius game plan. 

 

 

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#60 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 11, 2022 - 12:52pm

I didn't say it was a *good* game plan, just that it looked like what I expected.

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#63 by gspontak // Oct 11, 2022 - 1:32pm

I won't pretend to have expertise at evaluating personnel or game planning, but this doesn't look to me like "ignoring the middle third of the field."

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/kenny-pickett/PIC777233/2022/5/pass

I would like to see more deeper shots, and it is certainly lighter in the middle, but otherwise seems to me a reasonable distribution.

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#49 by Noahrk // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:31am

I didn't watch but the Steelers surely simplified what was already a simple offense. Rollouts are part of that -but they already ran a lot of rollouts. What do you look for with s rookie QB? Lots of short passes, lots of quick passes, lots of runs, lots of rollouts. But I probably didn't understand what you mean.

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#2 by Raiderfan // Oct 11, 2022 - 6:40am

“Winston won't be putting up games like this every week,”

Maybe you mean Hill?

Also, a question on garbage time.  When does it start with a blow out game such as Bill-Steelers?  Second quarter?  Third? And what effect does that have on say, the Bills’ DVOA?

Lastly, a question about Adams—between the TDs and the DPIs, how was he not in the top five? Just volume?

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#7 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 7:40am

What was Kelce’s DYAR? I figured he would get a freakish four TD bump.

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#13 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 8:32am

I don't get the idea that TDs should be super valuable in a stat. I mean, maybe a bit, sure, but not much more than any red zone yardage. They're super valuable on the scoreboard, but that's just leverage.

A first down to the 1 is like 90% of a touchdown anyway.

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#16 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:00am

A first down is worth ~10 DYAR, I thought. Something like that. A TD comes w/ a first down.

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#20 by BJR // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:23am

Once the ball crosses the plain of the end zone you physically cannot gain any more yards, so in that way you are penalized for scoring a TD. 

When 4 of your 7 catches are caught in the end zone, that certainly doesn't leave much scope for YAC.

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#26 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:57am

When 4 of your 7 catches are caught in the end zone, that certainly doesn't leave much scope for YAC.

That's not a function of the TD, that's a function of the location of the reception. TDs can be scored from passes caught outside the end zone. And your opportunities for YAC are pretty strongly capped as soon as you get into the red zone anyway, even if you don't score a TD: the defenders are all forced closer. Yes, that increases the difficulty of the catch, but again, that's a red-zone thing, not intrinsic to scoring a TD. Any catch inside the red zone's pretty equally difficult.

I'd totally buy a boost for red zone yardage, increasing in value up to an end zone reception. Just not super-convinced that scoring a TD is necessarily the important part of that.

 

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#30 by KnotMe // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:21am

According to the descriptions DVOA/DYAR do have a boost for red zone yardage, since it's hard to gain yards with the defense compressed. I'm not sure what it is however and it if it's scaled in some way. (I've always wondered if 5 yards from the goal might be harder than 10 bc the defense is more compressed but you arn't in "super short run/sneak" territory, i.e. if having less to defend overrides less distance to go in same range). 

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#37 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:50am

Yeah, that's basically my point. You obviously give Kelce a boost in value relative to the yardage given the fact that it was in the red zone, but I'm just not sure that "TD" itself deserves any significant boost. Always drove me nuts that AY/A just lops on 20 yards for every TD, which seemed completely arbitrary.

Honestly I think the hardest situation to face is 1st and goal from the 10. I swear I think I've seen an analysis somewhere that did confirm there's a noticeable drop in TD percentage once you go from the 1st down from just past the 10 to just at or inside the 10. It's obviously hard to coach but man I've always thought it'd be stupid-smart for a guy who realizes he can't score to just duck out at the 11 or 12 yard line.

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#47 by Noahrk // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:24am

The difference between a TD and any other red zone play is that the yardage gained is misleading. Kelce's one yard. TD was actually an 11-yard catch. But other 1-yard TDs are only 1-yard TDs. They should be boosted, but hard to say by how much exactly.

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#52 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:43am

Like I said, that's actually catches in the end zone, not TDs - all catches in the end zone are TDs, not all TDs are catches in the end zone. A receiver catch 5 yards in, 2 yards from the end zone who stretches and just barely crosses the line is exactly what it says in the stat sheet (with a difficulty boost for being in the red zone).

Obviously you can't determine this all from just the play by play, but I kinda feel like you could probably tease out the majority of it if you're careful enough. (And obviously this isn't exactly a criticism of Kelce's performance, which I would never, ever, ever, ever do).

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#61 by Noahrk // Oct 11, 2022 - 1:11pm

I agree, but still. A TD that isn't a catch in the endzone could potentially go for a lot more yardage depending on the place where the play began. There are plays where the ball-carrier barely cross the endzone, but there are others where he could've gone on for miles. On average, they deserve a boost.

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#65 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 1:58pm

That's true for catches *in* the end zone, too, and really all end zone plays.

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#66 by SandyRiver // Oct 11, 2022 - 2:03pm

If the play begins at the 8 and the receiver catches it just inside the end line, should that count as a deep pass?  It gets caught 17 yards beyond the LOS.

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#68 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 2:52pm

I kinda doubt there are many plays where the receiver could've gotten a ton of extra yardage. You're just not trying to beat the defense with speed there, and that's generally where you pick up tons.

I'm also still torn about thinking of plays in the back of the end zone as somehow more difficult than one straight to the front. The back of the end zone's just like the sideline - it's both a help and a hindrance to a defender, because it restricts both the receiver and you.

Of course, this is all part of a totally different conversation regarding "value" versus "difficulty." All TD plays are equally valuable, but they've got hugely varying difficulty. If you're 30 yards out and you pick up 28 yards already, those extra 2 yards for the TD have virtually no added difficulty. But being on the 2, now they're way harder.

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#72 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:30pm

I can't find the research right now, but the 20-yard bonus for a TD is not arbitrary. Somebody, somewhere, looked at the expected point differential between a turnover on downs at the 1 and a touchdown--which is basically the value of that last yard--and found it to be worth about 20 yards anywhere else on the field. 

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#81 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 4:17pm

PFR's derivation comes from here. It's hard to find now because PFR screwed up all of their blog links so you need to Wayback it.

The issue with the 20 yards is that it's an average between the value of red-zone TDs and goal line TDs and there's a huge difference in value between the two (because goal-line TD attempts cost you a down). I don't really understand why you would want to use the average when it ends up overvaluing 75% of all touchdowns.

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#71 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:27pm

11th with 32 DYAR. Just a bizarre game. Even if you drop the threshold to three touchdowns in a game instead of four, Kelce's 3.6 yards per catch is by far the record, breaking Plaxico Burress' mark of 6.3. And 25 yards is still almost unprecedented -- Plax had 25 yards on three catches in that same game, and somebody named Mack Alston had 22 yards with three touchdowns for the Houston Oilers in 1975. In fact, tomorrow is the anniversary of that Alston game. Plax's game was also in October, and so was Eric Green's three-touchdown, 28-yard game in 1990. I guess it's a Halloween thing.

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#69 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:04pm

“Winston won't be putting up games like this every week,”

Maybe you mean Hill?

Fixed!

Also, a question on garbage time.  When does it start with a blow out game such as Bill-Steelers?  Second quarter?  Third? And what effect does that have on say, the Bills’ DVOA?

There are no garbage-time adjustments in DVOA. Every time we have tried to account for garbage time, it makes the stats LESS predictive, not more.

Lastly, a question about Adams—between the TDs and the DPIs, how was he not in the top five? Just volume?

10th with 34 DYAR. He only caught three passes in seven targets (not including DPIs).

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#70 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:26pm

There are no garbage-time adjustments in DVOA.

Vince: to be clear this should be other than the normal situational adjustments. As in, plays with teams up 20+ in the 4th are compared to average performance of teams with plays with teams up 20+ in the 4th.

I mean, the Bills were up 20+ on the Titans in the 3rd, too, and the Titans proceeded to throw more picks than completions for the remainder of the game.

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#75 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:42pm

Yes, correct. There is a Score Gap variable so that teams that are losing by 20 are compared to other teams that are losing by 20. But we don't throw those plays out in the fourth quarter or weight them at 50% or anything like that.

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#4 by Murphquake // Oct 11, 2022 - 7:00am

"He had the league's worst DYAR on throws down the middle (1-of-2 for 10 yards with an interception)"

I understand that the stats don't account for a should-be first down being bobbled directly to the other team for an interception, but it at least merits a mention. 2-of-2 with that conversion would look a lot better...

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#5 by Murphquake // Oct 11, 2022 - 7:00am

"He had the league's worst DYAR on throws down the middle (1-of-2 for 10 yards with an interception)"

I understand that the stats don't account for a should-be first down being bobbled directly to the other team for an interception, but it at least merits a mention. 2-of-2 with that conversion would look a lot better...

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#17 by Murphquake // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:09am

Nah, just pointing out that DVOA ignores everything but the result of a play, which is fine. But choosing to then highlight his DVOA on those throws without mentioning that one was a perfect pass for a 1st down, except Aghalor flubbed it into an INT...seems harsh...

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#19 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:13am

You deserve negative DYAR for throwing a pass at Agholor.

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#24 by Murphquake // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:51am

clearly, but the comment below the grades seems harsh under the circumstances, thats all

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#28 by colonialbob // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:05am

Probably because the comments are written the day after all the games by a single writer - it's impossible to expect much besides comments on the actual numbers unless they happened to watch the game the player played in

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#59 by nat // Oct 11, 2022 - 12:24pm

This is a good point.  If he didn’t watch the game, he wouldn’t know how silly it was to highlight an interception that was 100% on the receiver and an aborted snap.  

They really happened, and the DYAR hit has to go somewhere.  But to pick those as the interesting things about Zappe’s performance is just unfortunate. If he had watched the game or even those highlights, he would have written it up differently, for sure.

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#74 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:41pm

Thank you for pointing this out and explaining it so well. I have a few hours on Monday afternoon/evening to write comments for 30-ish different quarterbacks (and a handful of backs and receivers) every week of the season, explaining why they rank so high or so low in the tables. I do not have time to watch every throw made by each of those 30 quarterbacks in those few hours. The easiest way to write most of those comments is to filter DYAR by quarter, or down, or distance, or direction, or position, see who fared best or worst in those scenarios, and then look up those splits to see why their DYAR was so extreme. If I happened to see a game or a highlight that showed something fluky like a tip-drill interception, I'll mention that, but I can't guarantee I will see every weird little bounce in any given week. I welcome comments from readers who did see things like that! But the comments are just brief comments, explaining where each player had a particularly good or bad day in our data.

As I like to say: the column is called QUICK Reads for a reason. If it was meant to be a detailed, meaningful evaluation, it would be called Slow Reads and it would come out on Thursday afternoons.

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#80 by nat // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:58pm

And thanks for the work you do. We get that the quick slice-and-dice of the stats that you have to do can sometimes turn up noise rather than insight. 

It turns out that the really interesting thing about Zappe’s day was how he was outside of an aborted snap and a bobbled interception.

So: how much DYAR did those two plays cost him?

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#82 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 4:58pm

-42 DYAR on those two throws down the middle.

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#83 by nat // Oct 11, 2022 - 6:13pm

The two plays that I meant were the bobble-Int and the aborted snap.  The other middle pass was 10 yards and a first down. So I’d guess that the Int and the aborted snap accounts for something like -70 DYAR. (A guess.  Was I close?)

In all fairness, most QBs look better if you ignore their two worst play results. But it’s interesting that the difference between Zappe and one of the best performances of the week is an aborted snap that his team recovered and a WR with bad hands.

He can build on that.

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#88 by Murphquake // Oct 12, 2022 - 9:13am

was never intended as criticism, i do understand how dvoa and quick reads work...just wanted to highlight that it seemed harsh on Zappe

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#29 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:11am

No grade, just what the stats literally were regardless of context.

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#6 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 7:33am

Carl Cheffers needs to be beaten with sticks until he can grow a clue.

Frankly, he needs to lose not only his weekend job but his real job. Doubling down on stupid is a bad habit.

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#27 by Kaepernicus // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:01am

Outside of SF winning a SB, the morning notification saying Boger and Cheffers have been fired is probably my second biggest wish for my sports fandom.

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#32 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:22am

Man, he's a sales guy -- a B Arker. Even getting him fired won't do any good -- he'll just slurm into an equivalent fungible job somewhere else, because happily touting your incompetence is basically a job skill for him.

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#9 by Chuckc // Oct 11, 2022 - 8:12am

 Indeed, Hill has returned to third-string status behind Hill and Andy Dalton this year 

 

He's so versatile he takes up 2 spots on the depth chart!

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#14 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 8:35am

Dear God, never let Tyreek play on the Saints.

Hasn't he thrown passes, too? So "T. Hill to T. Hill" could be totally ambiguous.

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#34 by RickD // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:34am

The Patriots have four Joneses on the roster this season: Mac,  and the three DBs Jack, Jonathan, and Marcus.  Jack is making a big splash as a rookie, with two picks already, and his play is validating the decision to not pay big money to either Stephon Gilmore or JC Jackson.

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#42 by theslothook // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:06am

I believe JC Jackson has also not been playing well so far - though that's based mostly on hearsay as I haven't watched many LAC games.

How Ne continues to churn the secondary and it doesn't end up a 2000 Chiefs secondary is one of his many parlour tricks.

 

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#57 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 12:05pm

It's still way too early on Jackson since he's just barely back from the ankle injury.

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#10 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 11, 2022 - 8:22am

How many times has the QB on the bottom of this chart been the "winning" QB? -116 DYAR seems like a lot for a team to overcome.

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#18 by BJR // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:12am

Sean Payton was frequently lambasted on this site for his apparent obsession with Taysom Hill; perhaps he just didn't know how to use him?

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#31 by Kaepernicus // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:22am

I would love to see what Shanahan could cook up with Taysom Hill in the lineup. Hill is actually a really good athlete even by RB standards with legit 4.4 speed and impressive explosion numbers. He is legitimately what all the Tebow fans wished he would become in the NFL. If I had him on my roster I would be setting up 10-15 wildcat/option plays every game. 

As a side note these numbers definitely back up what I have been seeing from Cooper Rush on the field. I have a lot of salt of the earth type Cowboys fan friends and family unironically saying the team is better with Cooper Rush as the QB. This sentiment is becoming common enough that I am starting to think they actually believe what they are saying. I mean maybe that is true in a scenario where literally none of Dak's salary is on the books and you traded him to the Panthers for a Russell Wilson type hall. But outside of $40 million in cap space and 5 extra draft picks there is no universe where Cooper Rush makes the Cowboys a better team. The reaction is kind of crazy though. Is Skip Bayless pushing Cooper Rush or something?

The last thing that stands out is Jared Goff against BB. Has there ever been a player that was so consistently terrible vs. average against one coach? Change teams, players, scheme and still Goff is turned into Rick Mirer every time he plays BB. Steve Young was famously terrible against the Holmgren/Packers. Seems like a cool article concept to break down prominent players and their kryptonite.

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#35 by RickD // Oct 11, 2022 - 10:38am

A guy wins a game or two and suddenly some fans insist that he's a franchise savior.  Among some of the dimmer fans in Patriot Nation, we are seeing similar sentiment for Bailey Zappe.  

As for Goff vs. BB: a lot of QBs have had similar problems vs. Belichick.  Philip Rivers comes to mind, as well as Ben Roethlisberger.  Peyton Manning was one of the few who could hold his own intellectually with Belichick's defense.  It's a good thing he didn't have any brothers in the NFL - that might have been disastrous for the Patriots.

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#39 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:00am

Brady against the Saints seems like a weird intersection, too.

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#46 by Kaepernicus // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:19am

Brady vs. Saints is one of the biggest examples of this. It isn't like Rodgers vs. 49ers where Rodgers had some career average type games and his defense got destroyed multiple times. Brady actually plays terribly against the Saints every single time they play. Brady vs. the Dolphins in Miami is the only thing I have seen that was close to it in his career. Maybe it's a Cam Jordan thing? Brett Favre vs. the Cowboys in the 90's was kind of similar. Joe Montana vs. the Giants comes to mind too. I think it would make for a fun study if I had any time.

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#55 by KnotMe // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:52am

Honestly, you run into sample size issues with this pretty quickly except maybe for Brady in Miami. 

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#41 by colonialbob // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:03am

As a Cowboys fan... it's pretty clear why people are saying Rush should keep the job instead of Dak, and it doesn't have a lot to do with football.

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#44 by Kaepernicus // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:14am

Yeah the people I have been hearing it from are either on the train you are referring to or they fall into one of those fan groups that just hates every player that gets paid. I was able to convince my BIL to come off that hill by bringing up the DAL-TB game from last year. They had to win a passing shoot out against a fantastic defense. Dak almost pulled it off too. We'll see what happens against PHI next week if Dak doesn't play. That Eagles defense is really tough. If Dallas can't run the ball against them it could get ugly. I see a lot of potential for some 20-3 type disaster for the Cowboys unless Dak is back. The Eagles are actually vulnerable right now with all the injuries on the Oline

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#53 by Romodini // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:51am

Many people haven't gotten over Dak replacing Romo and are vindictive/delusional enough to want Dak to get replaced in the same way.

They've also convinced themselves that Rush is more accurate and better at reading defenses than Dak. The only really good thing I've seen from Rush is his ability to stay cool under pressure. Doesn't ever seem to get nervous. But that'll probably change when he faces a real defense this week.

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#85 by Cythammer // Oct 11, 2022 - 7:55pm

Lolwut? The Cowboys fanbase is stocked with people who had an irrational hatred for Tony Romo. Romo was always reputed to be a loser, choker, not clutch, etc. It was the opposite of what you are saying. You could still find a multitude of Cowboys fans who would rant about Romo's trip to Cabo in 2007. Even all these years later, Dak has received virtually no flack for having little to no playoff success, while for Romo the criticism was constant.

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#51 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:40am

Do you know something about Romo's ancestry that the no one else does?

Because Romo got the same flak Dak gets.

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#58 by Kaepernicus // Oct 11, 2022 - 12:16pm

You have to look at Romo's football ancestry. The biggest reason Cowboys fans hated him was that fumbled snap in the Seattle game and other playoff failures that were obviously not his fault. I heard similar "It factor" type nonsense about Dak after the failure at the end of the SF playoff game last year as well. I think this is more one of those situations where the fanbase is delusional in general and some of the Dak detractors just happen to also be racist rather than driven by racism.

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#40 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:01am

Hey look, as we hit week 5 and OL injury roulette starts to pick up, Hurts is settling back down to about where my "eye test" had him - good, but not phenomenal as a passer, heavily boosted by excellent line play in weeks 2 and 3. Playing the Detroit Lions is just so great for boosting an MVP candidacy - when your response to pressure can be "chuck it up, they can't cover anyway" it's not that hard to play QB.

Was pretty good versus the Cardinals given the disaster at left tackle (sooo bad) but getting Mailata back next week is so critical versus Parsons. Super-ultra hate the Eagles-Cowboys matchup. That game does not feel like a 70/30 Eagles game (but of course so much of that is Mailata's health which is just totally up in the air).

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#43 by theslothook // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:08am

I have already seen more Cowboys games than I care to watch, but Parsons has been dominant in every single one of them. I usually believe when a great olineman faces a great dlinemen, the olineman usually wins. But Parsons appears to be a mutant.

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#56 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:53am

It's really because Parsons changes up what he does so much. I mean, the "braindead Eagles fan" comment is "oh, just run straight at Parsons, that's how you deal with him" but of course that's insane: he's not Dwight Freeney, he doesn't just blindly rush every down.

The really, really interesting case will be when/if they line up Parsons on the right, versus Lane Johnson. That's probably the case where he'd be neutralized: Lane doesn't give up ground quickly and because it's an easy view for Hurts even under center, even if Parsons does force past Johnson it'll probably still be enough time for a receiver to come open.

Of course if Mailata's not healthy it won't matter, because he'll never line up on the right. He'd abuse Driscoll all day - Driscoll's fine in the run game but when he goes for his pass set, he just ends up way off balance, like, all the time (better football viewers than I have pointed out that it's really his kick step, which isn't that surprising since he's primarily a right tackle). Parsons will just blow past that, and I don't even know what you do about it: double teaming, leaving a tight end in, etc. - Driscoll's got as much a chance to screw that up as a normal pass set. And holding a running back to block will buy what, a tenth of a second? You'd be better off just dumping to the RB every play and hoping.

The other thing is that Parsons is going to screw up some of Sanders's production as well. And Parsons played with Sanders for a year so there might be additional familiarity there. Like I said... I do not like this game.

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#62 by Kaepernicus // Oct 11, 2022 - 1:29pm

Parsons' speed to power conversion is shocking. The only tackles that have a chance to neutralize him are guys like Trent Williams, Lane Johnson, Tristian Wirfs, etc. They have to be very strong, athletic, and technically sound. Essentially only the best in the league. Nick Bosa is similar except it is his pad level/strength combo that is more shocking to the linemen that block him. The personnel issues/division rivalry definitely set that game up to be a lot closer than people think it will be. As a big fan of defense and trench warfare I can't wait to watch it.

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#67 by Pat // Oct 11, 2022 - 2:45pm

I think people are also just weirdly clueless about how solid Dallas is looking after the struggles in week 1. I don't get it. DVOA has this as #2 vs #6, SRS has this as 6.6 vs 4.3. Elo has it where Vegas is but they're putting in a massive downward adjustment for Cooper Rush which is almost certainly insane. This is not a game Philly wins 70% of the time.

Mailata and Johnson vs Parsons would be just great to watch. I still get the feeling they'd put Parsons mostly against the left side, especially initially. But Mailata's one of those guys that surprises you because he's gigantic and yet pretty technically sound. And Parsons hasn't faced him before, since neither of them played in week 17, and Mailata wasn't playing in the first game. So it wouldn't surprise me to have him moved around - but obviously the guy who's arranging the protection for Philly's also one of the best in the league.

But, of course, the big question is Mailata, which we have no info on, because Philly's being all sneaky-like. If it's either Dillard or Driscoll it becomes waaay easier for Dallas.

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#45 by pluithly // Oct 11, 2022 - 11:16am

How much passing DYAR did Jefferson get for his third down completion?

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#77 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:47pm

Oops! We actually forgot to include that. I've added it in. So he's still our top wide receiver, but now he's the top wide receiver by 19 more DYAR!

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#64 by andrew // Oct 11, 2022 - 1:41pm

Gabe Davis only ranked 3rd despite his monster day, because his long 62 and 98 yard completions get diminishing returns for how long they are in DVOA.  IIRC they are treated about the same as 40? yard completions or some number beyond which it is assumed they will score anyway. 

I've never liked that part, to me there is a huge difference between a 98 yard TD and an 88 yard completion where he gets tackled at say the opposing 10.   Maybe its just a vikings thing, but I've seen way too often they follow that up with a failure to punch it in (they still hold the record IIRC for longest non-scoring play in NFL history where Percy Harvin teached the 1, and then they ended up not only not getting the touchdown they didn't score at all when they failed on 4th down (and I know that was a KOR, not a play from scrimmage, but still).

I'm curious how numbers would look if we didn't diminish the value of long plays.  I don't suppose that is a toggle built into the formula...

 

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#79 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 11, 2022 - 3:56pm

Well, there is a point where values start to diminish, but there is also a bonus for scoring a touchdown, as discussed elsewhere in the comments. But Davis is "lucky" on his longest touchdown in the sense that his deep reception happened to come on a play with such bad field position -- you can't score a 98-yard touchdown if you're snapping the ball at midfield! There are a lot of 40-yard touchdowns where a receiver got behind the defense that could have been 50- or 60- or 70-yard touchdowns if they had started with worse field position. Also, we are looking for some predictive value here, and a 98-yard touchdown does not have twice the predictive value of a 49-yard touchdown. 

Just to be specific: Davis' 98-yard touchdown was worth 34.9 DYAR. (Without opponent adjustments, it's the most valuable catch of the year so far; with them, it falls a bit below Cooper Kupp's 75-yard touchdown against Dallas the same day.) His 62-yard touchdown was worth 32.2 DYAR.

Points: 0

#86 by reddwarf // Oct 11, 2022 - 9:14pm

I refuse to believe there were two QB's worse than Russ this week.  One, maybe, because Ryan also sucked in the worst combined offensive performance ever witnessed.  But two?  No way.  He was so bad he missed more wide open receivers than he hit (and I'm not just talking about the last play of the game; there were several more plays where someone was open by several yards and he didn't see it or blew the throw so badly it goes down as just an incomplete, when really a decent high school QB would have made the throw).

I don't think Russ was the main problem in weeks 1 to 4, and defended him against the vitriol being thrown his way.  But he was horrid enough this week to make me wonder about the rumored early concussion--he seemed to have no clue at all what was happening downfield or any ability to interpret what he was seeing.

Points: 0

#90 by Vincent Verhei // Oct 13, 2022 - 12:07am

Honestly, Rush was much worse than Wilson. Wilson has significant edges in yards per dropback (6.0 to 4.0), success rate (36% to 32%), and first downs (12 to 4). Wilson had two interceptions and a fumble; Rush had two fumbles.

Points: 0

#87 by dmb // Oct 12, 2022 - 12:39am

I'm not too fond of Wentz and I know I'm super-late to the game on this, but I think the fumbles attributed to Wentz may have been the result of bungled shotgun snaps from Washington's fourth-string Center; there were a few of those on Sunday.

Points: 0

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