Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and the History of Shootouts

NFL Week 2 - The most valuable quarterback of Week 2 played in Baltimore, Maryland. Unfortunately for him, the second-most valuable quarterback of Week 2 also played in Baltimore, Maryland, and only one of them could win the game. But the Lamar Jackson-Tua Tagovailoa shootout at M&T Bank Stadium inspired us to go back and update our list of the top quarterback duels in our database.

Jackson put the Ravens ahead with a series of highlight plays through the air and on the ground, finishing with 21 completions in 29 attempts for 318 yards and three touchdowns, without giving up a sack or an interception; he added nine carries for 114 yards and another score. But Tagovailoa rallied the Dolphins from a 35-14 deficit, leading Miami to a 42-38 win. Tagovailoa's final statline: 36-of-50 for 469 with six touchdowns.

We have looked at similar shootouts a couple of times in the past, but this list will look a little different—we made some corrections this offseason to interceptions that were counted incorrectly, but more importantly, we now have data going back to 1981, which means I get to write about Ron Jaworski for the second week in a row.

Our database now includes 297 quarterback games in the regular season with at least 220 combined DYAR. (Tom Brady leads the way with 26, followed by Peyton Manning with 24, Drew Brees with 23, and Dan Marino with 12.) Only six games, however, have seen opposing quarterbacks each hit the 220-DYAR threshold. Let's take a look at them, in chronological order, starting with an NFC East matchup from 40 years ago:

Week 1, 1982: Joe Theismann vs. Ron Jaworski

With labor unrest brewing, two division rivals opened the season against each other with plenty at stake. Jaworski's Philadelphia Eagles were coming off of four straight playoff appearances, while Theismann's Washington team had improved to 8-8 in 1981 and were hoping to improve again in 1982 and get back to the postseason for the first time in six years. What followed was a true shootout, a back-and-forth affair that saw seven ties or lead changes, including four in the fourth quarter and overtime. Trailing by two scores with 15 minutes left in regulation, Washington went on a 17-0 run (including Theismann's 78-yard touchdown pass to Charlie Brown) to take a 31-27 lead. Jaworski's ensuing 4-yard touchdown pass to Harold Carmichael put the Eagles back on top, but Washington's Mark Moseley booted a 48-yard field goal to send the game to overtime, then added a 26-yarder in the extra frame to give Washington a 37-34 victory. Theismann finished with 245 DYAR on 28-of-39 passing for 382 yards and three touchdowns, while Jaworski overcame a half-dozen sacks to complete 27 of 38 passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and 220 DYAR on the nose. The game would prove to be a passing of the torch of sorts—Washington went on to win the Super Bowl and made the playoffs five times in the next six years, while the Eagles would not return to the postseason field until 1988.

Week 11, 1994: Warren Moon vs. Drew Bledsoe

Another overtime game saw the Minnesota Vikings go up 20-0 in the first half over the New England Patriots. Minnesota's Warren Moon went 26-of-42 for 349 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, and one sack, finishing with 221 DYAR. Playing from behind all day, Drew Bledsoe threw 70 passes (a record that still stands), completing 45 of them for 426 yards, good for 266 DYAR. Despite all those dropbacks, Bledsoe didn't give up a single interception or sack. But he did throw three touchdowns, including a 31-yarder to Ray Crittenden and a 5-yard score to Leroy Thompson during New England's second-half rally, and then a 14-yard touchdown to Kevin Turner in overtime to give the Patriots a 26-20 win. The Patriots would go on to return to the playoffs for the first time since 1986, setting the stage for their Super Bowl run a few years later. The Vikings would also get to the postseason that year, during Dennis Green's remarkable stretch of reaching the playoffs eight times in nine seasons with seven different quarterbacks.

Week 12, 1995: Jim Everett vs. Warren Moon

Unlike our first two games, this was something of a hidden shootout because it came not in a back-and-forth matchup, nor in a furious rally, but in a complete blowout that was decided well before the final gun. The Minnesota Vikings went ahead of the New Orleans Saints 30-7 at halftime as Warren Moon finished 25-of-32 for 338 yards with no interceptions and a pair of sacks, accumulating 231 DYAR. He threw touchdowns to Cris Carter, Amp Lee, Qadry Ismail, and Carter again to put Minnesota up 36-10, a lead that would grow to 43-10 in the fourth quarter before the Saints' Jim Everett threw a pair of garbage-time touchdowns to Wesley Walls and Quinn Early. Everett's too-little, too-late statline was at least a boon to those playing fantasy football in 1995: 25-of-37, 335 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, two sacks, worth a total of 225 DYAR. The Vikings would finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs, with Moon moving on to Seattle the next year. The Saints were mired in a stretch of six straight losing seasons; Everett would be their quarterback for one more year before wrapping up his career as a backup to Stan Humphries and Craig Whelihan in San Diego.

Week 8, 2004: Trent Green vs. Peyton Manning

Older fans were probably expecting the Dick Vermeil-era Kansas City Chiefs to show up on this list somewhere. From 2002 to 2004, the Chiefs scored a league-high 1,434 points, but they also gave up 1,166 points, fifth-most. You take that team and match it up against Peyton Manning in his best year with the Indianapolis Colts, and you watch the numbers fly by like a slot machine giving up its jackpot. The Chiefs opened up a 31-14 halftime lead that would have felt safe for (and against) most teams, but Manning and the Colts never let them get comfortable, closing the gap to 31-28 and then 38-35 before Kansas City finally escaped with a 45-35 win. Manning went 25-of-44 for 472 yards and five touchdowns with one interception and no sacks; accounting for the Chiefs' Swiss cheese defense, that gives him 221 DYAR. Kansas City's Trent Green, though, went 27-of-34 for 389 yards with three touchdowns, no interceptions, and one sack, amassing 271 DYAR. Vermeil's Chiefs never won a playoff game and the coach was eventually followed by Herm Edwards, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel before Andy Reid arrived and ushered in the most dominant era in franchise history. Manning and the Colts would go on to lose in the divisional round, but would win the Super Bowl two years later.

Week 5, 2013: Peyton Manning vs. Tony Romo

Oh, hey, it's Peyton Manning again. He's bound to show up a few times in almost any "good quarterbacks" list. This was his second year with the Denver Broncos, and the best year of his career by DYAR, although he had a few seasons with the Colts that were better by DVOA. In early October, he paid a visit to the Dallas Cowboys, but the final score looked more like a Nuggets-Mavericks contest than a football game. Dallas took 17-7 lead in the second quarter, but the Broncos were ahead 35-20 midway through the third. That set up an insane finish that saw five ties or lead changes in the fourth quarter alone, the last coming on a 28-yard Matt Prater field goal that gave the Broncos a 51-48 win. Manning went 33-of-42 for 414 yards with four touchdowns, one interception, and no sacks. Thanks to some kneeldowns, he also had a hysterical rushing line: four carries for -8 yards with a touchdown, adding 5 rushing DYAR to his total of 275. In a losing effort, Tony Romo went 25-of-36 for 506 yards (that's 14.1 yards per pass) with five touchdowns, one interception, four sacks, and 269 DYAR, making this the only game on record with two quaterbacks over 250. Manning and the Broncos would go on to lose the Super Bowl to the Seattle Seahawks before winning one against the Carolina Panthers two years later. Romo's career would soon be over as he struggled to stay healthy, replaced first by Matt Cassel and then by Dak Prescott (who has had his own injury struggles).

Week 1, 2018: Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Drew Brees

We discussed Fitzpatrick and the 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week—how the journeyman filled in for a suspended Jameis Winston to start the year, then the two quarterbacks spent all season swapping in and out of the lineup as the Bucs spiraled to a 5-11 finish that got Dirk Koetter fired. But for one glorious week, Fitzpatrick was the best quarterback in football. His Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints traded scores early, with seven ties or lead changes in the first half. Tampa Bay's 31-24 lead at the break, however, soon exploded to a 48-24 margin. New Orleans cut the lead to 48-40 and had a chance for one more possession, but Fitzpatrick scrambled for 12 yards on third-and-11 to put the game away. Fitzpatrick's final numbers: 21-of-28 passing for 417 yards and four touchdowns, plus eight carries for 39 yards and another score, adding up to 289 DYAR. That overshadowed an excellent day by Drew Brees, who completed 37 of 45 passes for 439 yards and three scores (and 224 DYAR) himself. The Saints would have a better year than the Bucs, but it would end with a heartbreaking 26-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game. And speaking of the playoffs…

The Playoffs

By this definition, there has never been a postseason shootout. The closest we have seen came in the divisional round of the 1999 playoffs. When the Minnesota Vikings led the St. Louis Rams 17-14 at halftime. The Rams then reeled off five straight touchdowns to open a 49-17 lead before some meaningless late scores cut the final margin to 49-37. Rams quarterback Kurt Warner had 230 DYAR on 27-of-33 passing for 391 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, while Jeff George of the Vikings had 212 DYAR by going 29-of-49 for 423 yards with four touchdowns and an interception against a top-three defense that year.

Week 2, 2022: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lamar Jackson

You're well aware of how this played out: how Jackson's long touchdown run put the Ravens up 35-14 in the last minute of the third quarter before Tagovailoa's four fourth-quarter touchdowns (the most in 15 years, as noted by our old buddy Doug Farrar) rallied the Dolphins to an improbable 42-38 victory.

Here's the thing, though: for the time being, neither Jackson nor Tagovailoa qualify for our greatest games list. Jackson had some struggles in short yardage that opened the door for Miami's comeback, while Tagovailoa's 50 passes included a pair of interceptions, a dozen other incompletions, and several other short completions that didn't really go anywhere. Jackson's game currently scores at 217 DYAR, Tagovailoa's at 205, but those do not include opponent adjustments because we don't know just how good any defense really is. If the Dolphins and Ravens start shutting opponents out from here, it's easily conceivable that both games could hit 220 DYAR or higher. As for what the future holds, we'll likely be seeing more duels between Jackson and Tagovailoa—perhaps as soon as this January.

(Ed. Note: The error where rushing totals were not posted for Monday Night Football quarterbacks is now fixed below.)

(Ed. Note: There was an error in our rushing data that badly screwed up these tables in our original article. We present these corrected tables with limited commentary.)