Mahomes and Kelce Climbing up FO Leaderboards

Kansas City Chiefs Stars Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs Stars Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Wild Card - There's no question that the Kansas City Chiefs have the best quarterback and tight end of this era. The only question is whether anyone can stop Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce's assault on the record books.

Mahomes finished first among quarterbacks in total and passing DYAR in 2022 while ranking eighth in rushing DYAR. It's the third time in his five seasons as an NFL starter he has won the passing DYAR crown. Mahomes joins Peyton Manning (six first-place finishes), Tom Brady (also six), and Dan Marino (five) as the only quarterbacks since 1981 to lead the league in passing DYAR more than twice.

Since taking over as Kansas City's starter in 2018, Mahomes has never finished lower than fourth in passing DYAR. He is one of 11 quarterbacks with five top-four finishes, joining Manning (who did it 14 times); Brady, Marino, and Drew Brees (11 each); Joe Montana (nine, though we have not analyzed his first year as a starter in 1980 yet); Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers (six); and Brett Favre, Steve Young, and Dan Fouts (five, though there's nearly a decade of Fouts' career we haven't gotten to yet).

In 2022 alone, Mahomes passed Fouts, Jim Everett, Troy Aikman, Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner, Boomer Esiason, and Steve McNair on the career DYAR leaderboards. He now sits at 17th place, about one big game behind Matthew Stafford, with Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, and Warren Moon among those likely to be overtaken in 2023.

Top 20 Quarterbacks, Total Passing DYAR, 1981-2022
Name Pass
DYAR
Games DYAR/G
Tom Brady 28,756 335 85.8
Peyton Manning 26,290 266 98.8
Drew Brees 23,692 287 82.6
Dan Marino 19,461 242 80.4
Aaron Rodgers 15,977 230 69.5
Philip Rivers 15,299 244 62.7
Brett Favre 14,931 302 49.4
Ben Roethlisberger 14,457 249 58.1
Matt Ryan 13,425 234 57.4
Joe Montana 12,081 161 75.0
Steve Young 10,300 169 60.9
John Elway 9,377 234 40.1
Warren Moon 9,024 208 43.4
Carson Palmer 8,963 182 49.2
Tony Romo 8,850 156 56.7
Matthew Stafford 8,475 191 44.4
Patrick Mahomes 8,246 80 103.1
Dan Fouts 7,886 85 92.8
Jim Everett 7,751 158 49.1
Troy Aikman 7,672 165 46.5

Note that Mahomes has played only 80 games, fewest of anyone in that table, and is the only quarterback listed to average triple-digit DYAR per game. Manning and Fouts are the only others to average 90 or more.

Mahomes is still only 27 years old with a lot of football left in his career; he has a long way to go catch the Bradys and (Peyton) Mannings of the world. Kelce, however, is 33, and his place among the great tight ends in history is more secure. He just completed his third season atop the tight end leaderboards, tying him with Rob Gronkowski and Brent Jones, trailing only Antonio Gates (four) and Tony Gonzalez (seven) for the most first-place finishes at the position. It's also Kelce's eighth finish in the top four, tying him with Gates and Jason Witten behind Shannon Sharpe (10) and Gonzalez (13).

Kelce is now one of six tight ends on record to surpass 2,000 career receiving DYAR. Gonzalez still maintains a dominant lead in that department, but Gronk is the only player in the top 10 who can top Kelce game-for-game.

Top 10 Tight Ends, Career Receiving DYAR, 1981-2022
Name Rec
DYAR
Games DYAR/G
Tony Gonzalez 3,250 270 12.0
Antonio Gates 2,662 236 11.3
Rob Gronkowski 2,362 143 16.5
Jason Witten 2,097 271 7.7
Shannon Sharpe 2,090 204 10.2
Travis Kelce 2,062 144 14.3
Todd Christensen 1,195 108 11.1
Jimmy Graham 1,177 184 6.4
Mark Bavaro 1,140 126 9.0
Brent Jones 1,102 143 7.7

Mind you, all of these are just regular-season numbers. Since Mahomes was named Kansas City's starter, he leads the NFL with 28 postseason touchdown passes (Tom Brady is second with 15) and Kelce is first with 11 touchdown receptions (Cooper Kupp is next with six). And soon, they'll have chance to score in the playoffs even more.

Quarterbacks

Best Quarterbacks, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
Patrick Mahomes KC 1,752 97 3 1,851
Jared Goff DET 1,467 -44 1 1,424
Josh Allen BUF 1,085 226 -- 1,312
Tua Tagovailoa MIA 1,105 -17 -- 1,088
Tom Brady TB 1,122 -39 -5 1,078

The first four names here should require little explanation. Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns through the air. Jared Goff had the second-lowest rates of both sacks and interceptions while finishing in the top six in total yardage, yards per throw, and touchdowns. Josh Allen was second at the position in rushing yards and first in rushing DYAR, and though he struggled with red zone turnovers, only Mahomes threw for more scores. Tua Tagovailoa missed four games due to injury, but nobody was better at producing big plays—he led the league in touchdown rate (6.3%), yards per throw (8.9), and yards per completion (13.7).

And then there's Tom Brady. Despite starting 17 games and setting single-season records with 490 completions and 733 attempts, Brady only threw 25 touchdowns, tied for eighth in the NFL. (Tagovailoa had just as many touchdowns in 333 fewer passes.) He was fourth-worst with 6.4 yards per throw, finishing behind such luminaries as Baker Mayfield and Davis Mills, and only Kyler Murray averaged fewer yards per completion than Brady's rate of 9.6. So how can we call him one of the season's top passers?

For most of his career, Brady has excelled at avoiding disaster, and that was definitely the case in 2022. In all those dropbacks, he was only sacked 22 times, less than Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, or Zach Wilson, none of whom played more than nine games. Brady's sack rate of 2.9% was the lowest in the NFL. He also threw only nine interceptions; his interception rate of 1.2% was third-lowest. His Football Outsiders numbers are difficult to process. His 133.7% DVOA on successful plays was worst in the league, but his -122.8% DVOA on failed plays was best; in plain English, Brady's good plays were terrible, but his bad plays were excellent. And he was eighth in success rate, so as bad as his good plays were, he had more of them than anyone else.

Worst Quarterbacks, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
Matt Ryan IND -359 -50 -- -410
Justin Fields CHI -541 170 -- -371
Baker Mayfield CAR/LAR -221 -94 -- -314
Kyle Allen HOU -273 -38 -- -311
Nick Foles IND -293 -7 -- -300

Nobody had worse passing DYAR this season than Justin Fields, but his elite scrambling ability (his 7.1 yards per carry was best in football) lifted him just out of the basement. We'll talk about Fields more shortly, but for now let's focus on Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, and the Indianapolis Colts. We have written before about the terrible trio the Colts had under center—Ryan and Foles finished second- and third-worst in passing DYAR, and though Sam Ehlinger didn't quite make this table, he was eighth-worst. The Colts are the eighth team on record with two players in the bottom three in passing DYAR (ignoring minimum pass attempts), and the first since the 2020 Cardinals. They join those Cardinals, the 2004 Bears, and the 1994 Oilers as the only teams with three players in the bottom eight.

There were basically two versions of Baker Mayfield this year. The Carolina version had -309 DYAR and a -32.8% DVOA and barely looked like an NFL player. The L.A. version had 88 DYAR and a -1.7% DVOA, better than Matthew Stafford in both categories, and looked like a high-end backup or even a mid-level starter. In related news, Sean McVay is a better coach than Matt Rhule. And you may have forgotten that Kyle Allen started a pair of games for Houston, but he was terrible, completing less than 60% of his passes and averaging less than 6 yards per throw with two touchdowns, four interceptions, and seven sacks.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Zach Wilson, NYJ

OK, hear me out. Though Wilson's NFL passer rating of 72.8 was worst in the league, there were seven quarterbacks (including the other Wilson) with DVOAs worse than Zach's rate of -15.2%. He completed a league-low 54.5% of his passes, but he made those completions count, averaging 12.8 yards a pop, second only to Tua Tagovailoa. So he was fourth worst in success rate and ninth worst in average yards per dropback. In this case "better than his standard stats" means "awful, yes, but some were even worse."

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Justin Fields, CHI

Fields was 10th-worst in passer rating (85.2), but his DVOA of -34.5% was worst by a lot—Matt Ryan was next-worst at -22.5%. This one's easy to explain: passer rating does not include sacks, and Fields took a league-high 55 of them (tied with Russell Wilson) despite ranking 27th in pass attempts. Fields' sack rate of 14.7% was worst for any qualifying quarterback in a quarter-century, since Jake Plummer in 1997. Fields averaged 7.1 yards per throw, which was actually better than average, but only 5.2 yards per dropback; only Joe Flacco was worse.

Most Improved: Trevor Lawrence, JAX

As a rookie in 2021, Lawrence ranked 32nd with -345 passing DYAR and 29th with a -19.5% DVOA. In 2022, he ranked sixth with a 13.1% DVOA and seventh with 948 DYAR. Lawrence literally doubled his touchdown total (from 12 to 25) and cut his interceptions in half (from 17 to eight) while averaging a full yard more per pass.

Biggest Decline: Aaron Rodgers, GB

In 2021, Rodgers led the league in yards per throw, interception rate, and DVOA (27.6%) while winning his fourth MVP trophy. In 2022, he averaged 217.4 yards per game (his low-water mark as a starter) while throwing a dozen interceptions (his most since 2008) and finished 21st in DVOA (0.3%).

Running Backs

Best Running Backs, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
Nick Chubb CLE -- 341 61 401
Josh Jacobs LV -- 308 75 383
Christian McCaffrey CAR/SF 34 106 218 358
Aaron Jones GB -- 224 55 278
Tyler Allgeier ATL -- 223 48 271

Nick Chubb led all runners in DVOA and DYAR, though that's not as impressive as it sounds. His DVOA of 19.3% was the worst ever for a league-leader, with 1994 being the only other season where nobody hit 20.0%. But Chubb ranked third with 1,525 rushing yards, fifth with a dozen rushing touchdowns, and ninth among all players (fifth among running backs) with 5.0 yards per carry. Christian McCaffrey led all running backs in receiving DYAR for the second time in his career, his fourth finish in the top five. His DVOA doubled from 13.1% with Carolina to 26.9% with San Francisco. In related news, Kyle Shanahan is a better coach than Matt Rhule. Josh Jacobs finished between the two of them in total DYAR; let's put a pin in that for now.

In Green Bay, Aaron Jones finished exactly fourth in rushing DYAR for the third year in a row, finishing second among running backs with 5.3 yards per carry. And Tyler Allgeier might have been a strong favorite for rookie of the year if he played for a better team; his raw numbers are nearly identical to Kenneth Walker's, and he ranked 17th in success rate while Walker ranked 41st. Allgeier ranked fifth in both DYAR and DVOA; his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson ranked sixth and second as the Falcons ground game was stronger than you probably realized.

Worst Running Backs, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
Rex Burkhead HOU -7 -21 -59 -87
Trestan Ebner CHI -- -46 -28 -74
Tyrion Davis-Price SF -- -54 -11 -65
James Robinson JAX/NYJ -- -67 20 -47
Dalvin Cook MIN -43 -24 27 -41

There were no historically brilliant running backs this season, but none were particularly terrible either. James Robinson (who started the year with the Jaguars and ended it with the Jets finished last in both rushing DYAR (-67) and DVOA (-22.3%), but those numbers are very mild. This is the first year on record when no running back hit -70 rushing DYAR; in fact, there had been at least three such runners in every season back to 1987, when a strike wiped out a quarter of the season for most players.

With nobody stinking up the joint for an entire season, the list of worst running backs is dominated by part-timers with disappointing cameos. Rex Burkhead had 26 carries for 80 yards for Houston—not in a game, but all season. He was third on the team with 37 catches, but averaged only 5.5 yards per reception. Trestan Ebner, a sixth-round rookie in Chicago, gained 54 yards on 24 carries. The Bears also threw him eight passes; he caught two of them for 8 yards, and only two of those 32 opportunities resulted in first downs. Tyrion Davis-Price, a third-round rookie out of LSU, had 34 carries for 99 yards, including and 8-27 statline against Arizona in Week 18. Robinson, the one-time UDFA rookie sensation, had a little boom and a lot of bust in both Jacksonville and New York; he averaged 32.7 yards on his three touchdown runs, 3.1 yards on his other 107 carries, getting stuffed a league-high 26% of the time.

Let's take a pin and stick Dalvin Cook next to Josh Jacobs, saving them for later while we circle back to…

Better Than His Standard Stats: Nick Chubb, CLE

We listed Chubb's accolades earlier; how much better than that could he be? Consider that he did all that against the most difficult schedule any running back faced, gaining a league-high 76 rushing DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Nine of Chubb's 17 games came against teams in the top 10 in run defense DVOA. His numbers in those games: 15.6 carries for 78.8 yards per game, 5.1 yards per run, and a half-dozen touchdowns. Chubb also did the most damage in the NFL on explosive runs, with a league-high 341 yards coming 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Now, let's get back to…

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Dalvin Cook, MIN

Just as his Minnesota Vikings racked up a lot of wins with historically bad point totals, Dalvin Cook racked up a lot of yards from scrimmage with historically bad DYAR numbers. He's only the second running back on record with negative total DYAR on 1,400-plus yards from scrimmage, joining Matt Forte in 2009. And while that DYAR is skewed by a sack-fumble on a goal-line trick pass against Detroit, even without that play Cook was basically at replacement level. And it's pretty easy to explain why: Cook was stuffed for no gain or a loss 62 times, most in the league, and only James Robinson and Kenneth Walker had higher stuff rates than Cook's 23.5% amongst qualified runners. Oh, and he only converted 10 of his 24 carries with 1 or 2 yards to go for a first down. The Vikings as a team were dead last in short-yardage success and next to last in stuff rate, and whether that's the fault of Cook or the Minnesota offensive line, it's not good.

But there's always a chance Cook will play better next year. Just ask…

Most Improved: Josh Jacobs, LV

Jacobs was a below-average runner in 2021, finishing with a negative DVOA while losing carries to Peyton Barber and Kenyan Drake. All he did in 2022 was lead the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards and 2,053 yards from scrimmage. Jacobs was particularly good at moving the chains, rushing for 93 first downs (nobody else had even 70) and adding 16 more as a receiver.

Biggest Decline: Jonathan Taylor, IND

You Knew This Was Coming, Part I: A year ago in this space, we were writing about how Jonathan Taylor had put together the best running back season in a couple of decades; this year, he had a negative DVOA. His rushing production dipped by nearly a thousand yards, and though that's partly because he missed a half-dozen games, his per-game averages fell from 106.5 to 78.3, and his per-carry rate fell by a full yard. Oh, he was also last at his position in receiving DYAR; the Colts threw him 40 passes, only four of which resulted in first downs.

Wide Receivers

Best Wide Receivers, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
Justin Jefferson MIN 27 28 489 543
Stefon Diggs BUF -- -7 434 427
Tyreek Hill MIA -- 35 388 423
Jaylen Waddle MIA -- 21 397 418
CeeDee Lamb DAL -- 12 314 326

Justin Jefferson led the NFL with 128 catches and 1,809 yards, and also finished first in receiving DYAR. He had finished third in that latter department in each of his first two seasons. That makes him the 11th wideout ever with a trio of top-three finishes; only Jerry Rice (eight); Michael Irvin and Randy Moss (five); and Jordy Nelson (four) have done so more often. Stefon Diggs, who was traded to the Bills for the draft pick that was used to select Jefferson, didn't often rank highly in DYAR for the Vikings, but he has now finished second twice in three seasons in Buffalo.

In Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Miami Dolphins are the 15th team to have two wide receivers in the top four in DYAR, and the first since Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb did it for the Green Bay Packers in 2014. Hill finished second behind Jefferson with 119 catches and 1,710 yards; Waddle added 1,356 yards and led the NFL with 18.1 yards per catch. And remember, over 30% of their targets came from Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson.

In Dallas, CeeDee Lamb blossomed into the NFL's top wideout in the red zone. He had 15 targets inside the opponent's 20-yard line, catching 11 of them for 95 yards and five touchdowns.

Worst Wide Receivers, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
A.J. Green ARI -- -- -98 -98
Diontae Johnson PIT -- 15 -98 -83
Breshad Perriman TB -- -36 -44 -80
Robby Anderson CAR/ARI -- -- -79 -79
James Proche BAL -35 -- -43 -78

Like we saw with running backs, there were no truly awful wide receivers this year. Every qualifying wideout had a DVOA higher than -30.0%; that's only the second time ever that has happened, and the first since 1986.

A.J. Green finished last in DYAR in 2020, enjoyed a nice rebound season in 2021, and now has finished last in receiving DYAR again (although, with only 47 targets, he narrowly missed qualifying for our official tables). Green set or tired career-lows with 24 catches, 236 yards, 9.8 yards per catch, two touchdowns, and 15.7 yards per game. He will enter free agency at age 35 is unlikely to part of the rebuilding effort in Arizona … or anywhere else.

Diontae Johnson was neck-and-neck with Green in DYAR; he caught less than 60% of his targets, averaged only 10.3 yards per catch, and failed to score a touchdown. Breshad Perriman was bad as a receiver (19 targets, nine catches, 110 yards) and even worse as a runner (two carries for a net loss of 7 yards, including a fumbled exchange on a botched reverse against Green Bay). Robby Anderson had a -33.4% DVOA with Carolina that fell to -39.1% with Arizona. In related news, Kliff Kingsbury was no better a coach than Matt Rhule. James Proche, like Dalvin Cook in the running backs section, makes the bottom five because of a turnover on a trick-play pass attempt, but his receiving numbers (17 targets, eight catches, 62 yards, a 7.8-yard average) are rotten enough on their own.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Jaylen Waddle, MIA

As noted, Waddle led the NFL in yards per reception. That's how you finish third among wideouts in receiving DYAR despite finishing outside the top 20 in catches.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Diontae Johnson, PIT

Johnson did finish in the top 20 in catches—13th place with 86, to be precise—but was still at the bottom of the DYAR tables. Between short receptions and incomplete passes, he was third in the league in failed targets. Only Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson had more, and needless to say those two had a lot more big catches than Johnson.

Most Improved: Stefon Diggs, BUF

So remember when we said Diggs had ranked second in DYAR twice in his three seasons in Buffalo? In between those two years, he ranked 24th in 2021. Diggs caught five more passes in 2022 than he had the year before, for 204 more yards and one more touchdown, and he did it in 10 fewer targets.

Biggest Decline: Cooper Kupp, LAR

You Knew This Was Coming, Part II: A year ago in this space, we were writing about how Cooper Kupp had put together the best wide receiver season in our record books (and that was before he went 33-478-6 in the playoffs); this year, he was 30th in DYAR and 34th in DVOA. It didn't help that he missed half the season, but his averages fell from 114.5 yards per game to 90.2 and 13.4 yards per catch to 10.8.

Tight Ends

Best Tight Ends, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
Travis Kelce KC -- 7 248 255
Dallas Goedert PHI -- -- 204 204
George Kittle SF -- -- 179 179
Will Dissly SEA -- -- 121 121
Mark Andrews BAL -- 21 94 115

We must discuss Travis Kelce a little bit more, because some of his statistics were better than those of most wide receivers. His 12 touchdown catches were second to Davante Adams' 14; his 78 first downs were second to Justin Jefferson's 80. Dallas Goedert couldn't match Kelce's volume, but he was second at the position with a 36.1% DVOA, catching nearly 80% of his targets for 12.8 yards per reception. Seattle's Will Dissly was first at the position with a 39.6% DVOA, catching nearly 90% of his targets for 10.3 yards per reception. George Kittle's 11 touchdown grabs were second at the position behind Kelce, and he did it in 66 fewer targets. Mark Andrews was much less effective than he had been in 2021 (foreshadowing!), but he was still the most dangerous weapon in the Baltimore offense, especially as a short-yardage runner—his three carries gained a total of only 8 yards, but all of them picked up first downs.

Worst Tight Ends, Total DYAR, 2022
Name Team Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
Tre' McKitty LAC -- -- -85 -85
Logan Thomas WAS -- -- -76 -76
Cameron Brate TB -- -- -64 -64
Brevin Jordan HOU -- -- -54 -54
Cole Turner WAS -- -- -47 -47

Tre' McKitty averaged 7.2 yards per catch in 2022, with a fumble. That's even worse than his 7.5-yard average in 2021. Granted, between the two years, he caught only 16 passes. In 28 games. Twelve of them starts. Catching passes isn't really his job, is what I'm saying. Catching passes is part of Logan Thomas' job, but he wasn't very good at it, averaging 8.3 yards per reception with only one touchdown. Cameron Brate is sort of in the middle—he has averaged 1.8 catches per game in each of the past three years—but he averaged only 8.7 yards per catch without a single touchdown this year. Brevin Jordan averaged 9.1 yards on 14 catches without a touchdown for Houston.

None of them, though managed so much futility in so little opportunity as Washington's Cole Turner. In 10 games, the Commanders threw him nine passes. One was caught for a first down. Another was caught for a short gain. The other seven were all incomplete.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Dallas Goedert, PHI

Second at the position in DYAR despite finishing 12th with 55 catches. But again, he averaged 12.8 yards per reception. Only four tight ends had better averages, and none of them caught more than 37 passes. This is quite a change for the Eagles; Zach Ertz used to catch a ton of short passes and was regular named as the tight end who played worse than his standard stats.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Tyler Conklin, NYJ

Conklin ranked in the top 10 tight ends with 58 catches (more than Goedert, you'll note) but finished 46th among qualifiers in DYAR. He averaged only 9.5 yards per reception and was the only player at the position to fumble twice.

Most Improved: Evan Engram, JAX

Engram was last in receiving DYAR in 2021, averaging less than 9 yards per reception and 6 yards per target while catching passes from Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm with the Giants. He was seventh in DYAR this year, averaging 10.5 yards per reception and 7.8 yards per target while catching passes from Trevor Lawrence.

Biggest Decline: Mark Andrews, BAL

Andrews led all tight ends with 310 DYAR in 2021, catching 107 balls for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns while playing with a healthy Lamar Jackson. He was "only" sixth with 94 DYAR this year, catching 73 balls for 847 yards and five touchdowns as the Ravens' quarterback depth chart fell to pieces.

Comments

71 comments, Last at 13 Jan 2023, 2:57pm

#1 by Pat // Jan 10, 2023 - 10:34am

Dallas Goedert couldn't match Kelce's volume, but he was second at the position with a 36.1% DVOA, catching nearly 80% of his targets for 12.8 yards per reception.

Goedert missed a huge portion of the season, though. Prorating his DYAR to 17 games, he would've actually been first overall. Dissly's high DVOA is just the normal "small volume, huge effect," but Goedert was clearly on pace to be the best TE in the league by DYAR.

Kelce still would've had the lead in traditional stats and I would've still called him the best TE, but that's because the Chiefs were leaning hard on him. One of the downsides of DYAR is that when a guy like Kelce is getting absolutely ludicrous volume, you're still baselining him against a "normal replacement" TE - whereas a "normal replacement" TE wouldn't put up anywhere close to 0 DYAR on 152 targets.

Points: 7

#3 by whocares4 // Jan 10, 2023 - 11:06am

Yeah, I was a little suprised that FO's commentary wasn't more along the lines of "holy shit, look what Goeddert did - we were just talking about Kelce being the best of his era and it seems like Goeddert had a better season than him in every way but 'getting injured on a brutal uncalled penalty.'"

I never liked Ertz much and agreed with FO's inffective "stat-padder" analysis of him (and hated that he couldn't block) but it's pretty crazy that the Eagles clearly, inarguably upgraded from him with Goeddert (Ertz was at one point on a HOF pace and I guess might still have a borderline case?) It's just crazy to improve on a position of strength like that.

Points: 2

#6 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 10, 2023 - 11:23am

it's pretty crazy that the Eagles clearly, inarguably upgraded from him with Goeddert (Ertz was at one point on a HOF pace and I guess might still have a borderline case?) It's just crazy to improve on a position of strength like that.

It's like being a WR1 for the Steelers, or QB for the Chargers.

Points: 0

#7 by Pat // Jan 10, 2023 - 11:34am

and it seems like Goeddert had a better season than him in every way

That's what I was trying to address at the end, though. By DVOA/DYAR, sure, but when you consider that Kelce was the primary receiving threat and Goedert wasn't, and Kelce still put up those numbers, I'm fine with anyone who says Kelce's year was better.

If you want an FO stat that sums this up, for instance, you can look at effective yards, where Kelce was still way ahead, even prorated. Kelce was leaned on like a top receiver, and performed like one for half the price.

Points: 2

#33 by whocares4 // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:17pm

I'm fine with anyone who says Kelce was better. Just Goeddert being in the conversation despite missing so many games is incredible. I think he's deeply underrated as a player. He should at very least be thought of as being on the level of someone like Kittle. 

Points: 0

#65 by Rufus R. Jones // Jan 11, 2023 - 9:02am

Just Goeddert being in the conversation

He's not. There is no conversation.

Points: -3

#24 by Rufus R. Jones // Jan 10, 2023 - 2:24pm

Yeah, I was a little suprised that FO's commentary wasn't more along the lines of "holy shit, look what Goeddert did - we were just talking about Kelce being the best of his era and it seems like Goeddert had a better season than him in every way but 'getting injured on a brutal uncalled penalty.'"

 

Commentary like that would put FO in the realm of an SB Nation fan site.

Points: 1

#34 by whocares4 // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:18pm

Ah yes, FO's famously circumspect and even-handed commentary. 

Points: -4

#62 by rfh1001 // Jan 11, 2023 - 4:48am

Will Dissly, unless I only ever confirm my biases, always seems the best TE in football for the three plays a year he's not injured.

Points: 0

#30 by Will Allen // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:12pm

Yep, the truly awful receivers don't get targeted. Working snap counts on pass plays into the analysis might be helpful.

Points: 4

#43 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:17pm

Honestly, I flat-out forgot. Probably because they kept on winning without him. But yes, Goedert handily beats Kelce in DYAR per game this year, 17.0 to 15.0.

Points: 4

#2 by big10freak // Jan 10, 2023 - 11:05am

Great stuff.  Thanks as always 

 

Folks will likely point to the receiving corps, o line injuries and Rodgers thumb injury as reasons for the decline.   All legit. 
 

Fundamentally though I think age is finally getting to him.  But that’s just my view as someone who has seen many athletes wind down their careers.  

Points: 1

#39 by Robopunter // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:56pm

Rodgers is the one who specifically wanted Lazard, Cobb and Tonyan out there. That's 40% of his targeted passes and those positions still need to be upgraded.

At least Watson and Doubs look like a good combo for any QB to work with.

Points: 1

#4 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 10, 2023 - 11:19am

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Dalvin Cook, MIN

We're fully aware DVOA hates boom-y RBs and loves cosplaying WRs.

Tyrion Davis-Price, a third-round rookie out of LSU, had 34 carries for 99 yards, including and 8-27 statline against Arizona in Week 18.

How on earth do you fail as a RB in SF? That's like sucking on the early 2000s Chiefs or Broncos, where my grandmother could have run for 1,000 yards.

Points: 1

#8 by Chuckc // Jan 10, 2023 - 12:08pm

Davis-Price has been outperformed by the 6th round rookie on the 49ers, Jordan Mason, since training camp. He's hesitant hitting holes and generally is one of those guys they say has trouble adjusting to the speed of the NFL.

Points: 1

#13 by Kaepernicus // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:06pm

He is our annual sacrifice to the RB blood gods. Someone somewhere in the FO has to take a flier on an RB in the 3rd/4th round every year. Then every single year a UDFA or 6th+ round pick outplays them and the sacrifice disappears into the fog by year 2. My theory is the highly drafted guys are Shanny or Lynch draft crushes and all the late round flyers are the ones dug up by the regional scouts. Considering the state of the roster I am totally cool with this annual miss. Those wasted picks and the random bad mid-tier FA signings you can see the weakness of the FO. Outside of that they are great at everything which is why SF has the deepest roster in the NFL in spite of the misses. 

Points: 3

#14 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:16pm

He is our annual sacrifice to the RB blood gods.

I thought you used your QBs for that.

Points: 5

#18 by rh1no // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:29pm

No, that's just paying the devil his due for the bargain struck that landed the 49ers Joe Montana ... and then swiped Steve Young because he would have rather played in the USFL for a year and back up Montana than go to Cincinnati.

San Francisco still probably needs about 10 more years of bad quarterback mojo before the karmic scales are balanced.

Points: 2

#21 by Kaepernicus // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:46pm

Backup QB has been extremely important in SF for over 40 years. Steve and Joe rarely played a full 16 games for various injury reasons. The same has been true since then. If you are coaching in SF it is malpractice to have a bad backup QB. It would be cool to have an iron man at QB for once.

Points: 1

#26 by coboney // Jan 10, 2023 - 2:40pm

My guess is that the 3rd/4th round picks are guys who they like the physical traits of, while the late round picks are guys who have shown the specific skills that fit in their running attack.

If one of those higher picks were to learn those skills they'd be great but in general that seems to be harder compared to picking guys who have that mindset/approach they want already.

 

Now with McCaffrey I figure we'll spend less on that.

Points: 0

#9 by Raiderfan // Jan 10, 2023 - 12:11pm

The Mahomes doing better than Manning strikes me.  I understand that DVOA is adjusted yearly, but what about DYAR?  Is Mahomes doing better than Manning did, doing better compared to his peers than Manning did against his, just doing well in the pass-friendliest era in the NFL, or some combination thereof?

Points: 0

#15 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:18pm

Manning carries both his end of career years, but also his early years on some wretched Indy teams that were not nearly as offensively competent as the Reid Chiefs.

Points: 3

#63 by HitchikersPie // Jan 11, 2023 - 7:23am

One way to adjust for this is to just look at multi-year DYAR peaks, so the top 10 passing+rushing/year average over 5 years (Mahomes' career as a starter) is as follows:

Peyton Manning: 1,995.6
Tom Brady: 1,806.6
Dan Marino: 1,723.4
Patrick Mahomes: 1,704.2
Drew Brees: 1,653.8
Aaron Rodgers: 1,486.8
Steve Young: 1,450.4
Dan Fouts: 1,396.0
Philip Rivers: 1,246.6
Joe Montana: 1,202.2

I think this emphasises that while Mahomes is off to an incredible start, the peak is still not of the order of the peaks that Brady and Peyton have reached.

Also because it's interesting to me, if you were to join up the '07 season to Brady's '09-'12 peak his 5 year DYAR average would be 2,152.2

Points: 3

#44 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:25pm

The baselines for DYAR are adjusted for each season. The gap between Mahomes and a replacement quarterback during his career is bigger than the gap between Manning and a replacement quarterback during his career, game-for-game. Now to see if Mahomes can maintain that pace for another decade.

Also, Manning is realllllllllllllllllly dragged down by his final season in 2015. Going into that season, his career average was 104.0 DYAR per game. Then he came back for one more year, played like hot rotten garbage, averaged -32.6 DYAR per game, won a Super Bowl anyway, and retired. 

Points: 2

#50 by Raiderfan // Jan 10, 2023 - 7:27pm

Thank you. Which leads me to want to know a) is the Manning “replacement quarterback” better, worse, or unknown, compared to the Mahomes “replacement quarterback “, and b) does the increased number of quarterback injuries resulting in an increased number of replacement quarterbacks in the last few years work to Mahomes’ advantage, disadvantage, or also unknown?

Points: 0

#52 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 10, 2023 - 7:48pm

You can read about that here.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

The short answer is that replacement level is set to a specific DVOA every season. Off the top of my head I want to say it's -12.5%. All the baselines are based on league-total passing stats for that season, whether every starter plays 17 games or we're getting third- and fourth-stringers every week. 

Joe Flacco was the best qualifier with negative DYAR this year. He completed 57.6% of his passes for 5.5 yards per throw with 5 touchdowns, 3 picks, and 10 sacks. Compare that to Peyton's rookie year in 1998, when the best qualifier with negative DYAR was Chicago's Steve Stenstrom. That season, Stenstrom completed 57.1% of his passes for 6.4 yards per throw with 4 touchdowns, 6 picks, and 19 sacks. 

If a lot of backups are playing, and the backups truly are inferior to the starters, then the baselines will drop, and the great players like Mahomes will look better by comparison.

Points: 4

#58 by theslothook // Jan 11, 2023 - 12:49am

I think what you are after is an era adjuster/deflator, not DVOA, which is really per season comparison. Mahomes is "better" than Manning relative to his peers at the time. That statement is functionally true in all of the following conditions:

His peers are average, Mahomes is great. Mahomes is less great, his peers are far worse than average. His peers are awesome, but Mahomes is a god. 

In all three scenarious, DVOA will be the same but which of the three it is is unknown. 

Points: 0

#59 by theslothook // Jan 11, 2023 - 12:50am

Then he came back for one more year, played like hot rotten garbage, averaged -32.6 DYAR per game, won a Super Bowl anyway, and retired.

This must irritate the rings = greatness crowd to no end, unless you think Manning sapped all of his regular season mojo into one postseason power up. Of course, even that argument kind of fails because Manning was mostly mediocre in the playoffs and horrendous in the superbowl. 

Perhaps! Dare I say...rings aren't a great judge for these sorts of discussions.

Points: 0

#67 by Bob Smith // Jan 11, 2023 - 10:11am

You are so right about rings not being a great judge. The way a QB plays when he is having that success means more IMO.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Take Jim Kelly for example-he played good enough to have his team in position to win his 1st S.B. game only to have his kicker miss a somewhat make-able field goal. 

Points: 0

#10 by Bob Smith // Jan 10, 2023 - 12:45pm

A little off-topic but interesting none the less-Mahomes is the only QB (at least for now) to throw at least 1 TD Pass in all 17 Regular Season Games. The old Record was at least 1 in 16 games for obvious reasons.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Joe Burrow had a shot at it but the unplayed game cost him a chance.

Points: 0

#16 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:21pm

You have to go back aways, but teams have played 17+ games before. The 1925 Bears played 17. The 1926 Frankford Yellow Jackets played 17, and the 1925 team played 20 games.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/fyj/1925.htm

 

Points: 1

#45 by Bob Smith // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:34pm

Also because of a lot of help from Kelce, Mahomes now has the best raw stats of any QB after 80 starts in the NFL.                                                                                                                                                                                                         And as good a start as Justin Herbert has had, Mahomes had better raw stats than Herbert or any one else for that matter after 49 starts in the NFL-which is where Herbert is right now.

Points: 0

#11 by rh1no // Jan 10, 2023 - 12:46pm

Jared Goff by the numbers:

  • 2016

    • -881 DYAR (34 out of 34 qualifying QBs)
    • -74.8% DVOA (34/34)
    • Head Coach Jeff Fisher is fired after starting the season 4-9 and failing to develop Goff, who went winless in 9 starts as a rookie.
  • 2017
    • 1,125 DYAR (6/35)
    • 24.0% DVOA (5/35)
    • Under new Head Coach Sean McVay, Goff leads the Rams to a playoff berth and is named to the Pro Bowl.
  • 2018
    • 1,114 DYAR (6/34)
    • 17.0% DVOA (5/34)
    • Threw for 400+ yards and 4 TDs in the third-highest scoring NFL game ever. Led the Rams to the Super Bowl before sputtering out against the Patriots. Named to the Pro Bowl for the second straight year.
  • 2019
    • 552 DYAR (15/34)
    • 2.0% DVOA (18/34)
    • Signed a record-breaking 4-year contract extension. Threw for 500+ yards while tying the NFL record for most completed passes in a game. Set the Rams franchise record for most completed passes in a season, but the Rams failed to make the playoffs
  • 2020
    • 385 DYAR (20/36)
    • -1.1% DVOA (22/36)
    • Broke his thumb in Week 17 and was unceremoniously sat behind backup John Wolford for the Ram's Wild Card appearance. Entered the game after Wolford was injured and led the Rams to victory before losing to GB in the Divisional round.
  • 2021
    • 260 DYAR (20/34)
    • -3.6% DVOA (20/34)
    • Traded to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, who promptly leads the team to a Super Bowl victory. The Lions go 3-13-1, with Goff missing three games due to injury.
  • 2022
    • 1,467 DYAR (2/34)
    • 24.8 DVOA (4/34)
    • Leads the Lions to a surprising 9-8 record, going 5-1 against their division and ending the season by winning 8 out of 10. Goff throws for 4,000+ yards for the third time in his career.

I can't think of a quarterback who has had a more up-and-down career than Jared Goff.

His draft mate Carson Wentz had a similar trajectory the first two seasons of his career, but settled into mediocrity in 2018 before bottoming put as the worst QB in the league in 2020. Wentz was serviceable last year, but looks to be a permanent backup after an awful 2022. He showed flashes of great QB play, but never reached Goff's peak.

Alex Smith comes to mind as a high draft pick who went from bust to Pro Bowler, but his tale is more cut-and-dry: he was pretty consistently bad under a head coaching carousel in SF before blossoming under Reid in KC. Meanwhile, Goff has been good and bad under multiple head coaches at two different franchises.

I'd bet the house that Goff will regress in 2023, but I wouldn't be surprised if he put up another top 10 -- or even top 5 -- season. I also wouldn't be surprised if he ended up back in the middle-of-the-pack. Whatever happens, he's fun to root for and the perfect leader for this scrappy, "Stop playing with us!" Lions team.

I'd love to see FootballOutsiders do an in-depth breakdown of what factors have contributed to his cycle of success and failure ahead of next season, and what you all predict for this unpredictable player.

Points: 11

#28 by rh1no // Jan 10, 2023 - 2:41pm

As a Bengals fan, I probably should have thought of this; it's not a bad fit.

Anderson's ups and downs were more spread out over his career. He also had an MVP season, led the league in passer rating a few times, and was a 4x Pro Bowler. He spent 15 years in the league, though, so Goff might be able to match Anderson's  accomplishments if he can also match Anderson's longevity.

Points: 3

#19 by Pat // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:34pm

 

I can't think of a Quarterback who has had a more up-and-down career than Jared Goff.

I think the first year's throwing you off. First-year disasters always look weird because it's an indication that a team was horribly mismanaged and threw a player who wasn't ready onto the field. See also Matt Stafford. There's also the fact that you actually see him every year, as opposed to, say, being benched and coming back or something. 

An early career spike + decline + rebound isn't exactly that up and down. I mean, Matt Stafford immediately comes to mind but heck, Rodgers was all over the place in the 2010s too. From '14 on he went 1564, 406, 1279, 334 before settling in near his average for two years, then spiking in '20 and '21 and falling again in '22.

Jay Cutler's a bit more of a dramatic collapse, too, although without as strong a rebound.

edit: duh, I forgot Pennington, who's career was so up and down you can split it into even/odd years and he looks like an elite QB versus a total scrub.

Points: 3

#29 by rh1no // Jan 10, 2023 - 2:55pm

I suppose the Stafford comparison is inevitable.

In my mind, Stafford was throwing for 4,000 yards every season out of the gate, but as I'm diving into the stats I see he had a terrible rookie year ... second to last in the league in DYAR! I see he also had a few mediocre years and a bad 2018 while trying to adjust to life post-Megatron. But 2018 was really his only below-average year after his first season. Maybe if Goff sustains his success in Detroit I'll see the comparison better.

Gotta love Pennington. I guess you're defined by "up-and-down" when you win the Comeback Player of the Year award TWICE.

Points: 2

#31 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:16pm

That Lions team in Stafford's first year was wretched. They may have been less-talented than the 0-16 team.

Points: 1

#38 by Pat // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:31pm

Basically if you imagine taking Stafford's career arc and compressing it, you'd get something close to Goff. (Or do the same for Cutler, for that matter).

But 2018 was really his only below-average year after his first season.

points to this year

Points: 1

#20 by Kaepernicus // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:40pm

I have watched a ton of Goff and he is firmly in the Cousins/Jimmy G crew. His problem has always been dealing with pressure. Like Kirk and Jimmy he lacks a consistent second move when a play is blown up. He has a great arm with the ability to make every throw accurately. He seems to play fine in high leverage games/situations too. If his protection/scheme is bad though, he will be very bad. This is similar to prime Andy Dalton too and why these types of guys tend to have their play drop off a lot in the playoffs. They can't consistently beat great defense. 

Points: 2

#25 by rh1no // Jan 10, 2023 - 2:34pm

I can definitely see an argument that Dalton is regular unleaded, Cousins is premium unleaded, and Goff is super premium.

Cousins started off as a backup, though, and put up some truly terrible numbers in limited action during his first couple of years. After winning the full-time starting role, he's been a lot more consistent than Goff, staying in the top half of the league in DYAR and typically hovering inside the top 10.

Jimmy G is an interesting comparison. In some ways, he's the opposite of Goff. He doesn't have the arm strength, but both players (can) excel off of play action passes and both led their team to the Super Bowl. And, of course, there's the Shanahan connection. No doubt he sees them as similar players and has also contributed to their similarities.

Points: 1

#35 by Kaepernicus // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:18pm

Jimmy's biggest problem relative to the others in that tier is his lack of health. He's pretty much always a top producer when healthy using DVOA/DYAR. I honestly think that lack of health probably puts him in the Pennington and sadly Tua group. Where they ride great accuracy/quick release to highly efficient offense when they are available. If the QBs in that tier start getting paid in that $25-30 million range instead of the $35-40 million range they could end up as really valuable pieces for a contender. I think Geno is about to join that crew over the next few years.

Points: 1

#36 by BlueStarDude // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:26pm

Goff's other 2016 draft alum, Dak Prescott, seems close in yearly up/downs—he's almost directly opposite Goff in terms of when up/down.

I haven't seen Goff as much obviously, but I'm pretty sure Dak has been more up and down from game to game (heck, from play to play). But, year to year they seem comparable. Dak basically goes from very good, to poor, to bad, back to very good, to injured (an "interesting" season start), to very good, to fair.

Dak 2016
* 1,302 DYAR (4/34)
* 31.6% DVOA (3/34)

Dak 2017
* 375 DYAR (17/35)
* -0.2% DVOA (17/35)

Dak 2018
* 112 DYAR  (25/34)
* -8.1% DVOA (26/34)

Dak 2019
* 1,541 DYAR (1/34)
* 27.1% DVOA (6/34)

Dak 2020 (5 games)
* 399 DYAR (19/36)
* 14.0% DVOA (8/36)

Dak 2021
* 1,379 DYAR (3/34)
* 21.2% DVOA (3/34)

Dak 2022 (12 games)
* 526 DYAR (14/34)
* 8.3% DVOA (11/34)

Points: 8

#56 by rh1no // Jan 10, 2023 - 11:50pm

GREAT call. I thought about Dak since they were in the same draft class, but I didn't even look up Dak's numbers for some reason.

I wonder if Goff would still go #1 if the 2016 draft were held today. Would the Rams pick Dak for his potential? Build the defense with Bosa or Ramsey? I'd probably take Bosa, but would stay with Goff over Prescott.

Points: 0

#60 by theslothook // Jan 11, 2023 - 12:55am

Dak's career thus far is why i was concerned about committing huge dollars to him. Now, a few things have changed my mind since.

Letting Dak go is a path straight into the toilet. Its just not a palatable alternative. Sure, you can maybe argue that Cooper Rush on this Cowboys team might go interesting places, but in most universes, I just don't think that's the case. You are more likely to end up with someone awful in that condition. 

The second is that you can perhaps nail some draft picks and the run continues. That Parsons pick being a good example.

Eventually, however, if Dak's of the world start commanding even bigger salaries(which he will btw, his contract is up for an extension next year I believe); its going to become a true dilemma. 

Points: 2

#37 by BJR // Jan 10, 2023 - 3:27pm

Good post. It certainly enhances Goff's reputation that he has now had success away from McVay, who was basically issued all the credit for his success in LA.

The article also misses a catches by failing to mention that Goff's season was better than any Stafford put up in Detroit. So that makes two teams where he has outperformed the guy who cost 3 first round picks to replace him. 

Points: 4

#41 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:08pm

I don't think LAR regretted trading for a guy who wasn't fazed when he was down to one useful eligible receiver and no useful running backs when trailing late with the season on the line.

That was never Goff's forte.

Points: 3

#61 by rh1no // Jan 11, 2023 - 1:35am

McVay seemed like he was tired of game-planning around Goff's limitations and just wanted someone with a cannon for an arm to let loose on opposing defenses. He got that, and he got his Super Bowl victory, too. 

But getting all that sure put this franchise in a position that makes it tough to compete for the next few years.

Points: 1

#69 by bravehoptoad // Jan 12, 2023 - 1:10pm

And getting that Super Bowl victory was a close, close thing. Rerun that post-season 10 times, and in how many of them do the Rams win? 

How does everyone feel about the Rams "fuck them picks" strategy if they don't win that Super Bowl?

Points: 0

#70 by Joey-Harringto… // Jan 13, 2023 - 12:44pm

There is definitely an element of luck to a lot of SB winners.  I haven’t researched it, but it seems like the ‘85 Bears, ‘89 49ers, ‘91 Redskins that just squash everyone who dares get in their way are relatively rare.  That’s why trying to stay competitive long-term is a sounder strategy than “all in.” 

Just one or two bounces the wrong way, and “Fuck them picks” turns into “We fucked ourselves.”

Points: 0

#46 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:35pm

Real quick, I can look at standard deviation in seasonal DYAR totals. These do not include 2022 numbers, just because I don't feel like taking the time to add them to our database right now. And I threw out numbers where a passer didn't qualify for our leaderboards, for obvious reasons.

No. 1 is Josh Allen -- better than Goff, but a similar development curve. Then it goes Bobby Hoying, Goff, Daunte Culpepper, Erik Kramer, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Boomer Esiason, Case Keenum, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Rich Gannon.

The fact so many of those players are active tells me small sample size is playing a part here. But you're definitely onto something with Goff's rollercoaster career.

Oh, the smallest standard deviations: John Skelton, Mike Glennon, Anthony Wright, Jim Miller, Dan Orlovsky. This list sucks!

Points: 7

#57 by rh1no // Jan 11, 2023 - 12:06am

Dude, thanks for pulling this list! I think you're right about the small sample size issue. Will his second act go the way of Boomer Esiason's? Or will he be able to sustain his success? This is part of what will make the Lions fun to watch next season!

Points: 1

#64 by BlueStarDude // Jan 11, 2023 - 8:42am

As mentioned above, thanks for pulling this together, and of course including 2022 would only bump up Goff and Dak as this season saw them swing in different directions.

Points: 1

#71 by Joey-Harringto… // Jan 13, 2023 - 2:57pm

The good players on the high variance list: "It's hard to maintain excellence year in and year out."

The entire low variance list: "When you're terrible, it's easy to remain consistently terrible."

Points: 0

#68 by Joey-Harringto… // Jan 11, 2023 - 2:06pm

Before the season, I felt like Goff was a little better than people gave him credit for, but saw him as a placeholder until they can draft a true franchise QB. 

This season was a pleasant surprise, and did improve my opinion of him, but I agree 100% with other posters that he's on par with the Cousins's and Garropolo's of the world (capable of production and team success with the right external support). 

The way the team is talking, they apparently see him as a the starter for the foreseeable future.  Brad Holmes' direct quote this week, when asked about upgrading at quarterback was, "It's a lot easier to get worse at quarterback than it is to get better."  I'm not a 100% sure if that's a ringing endorsement, or signaling that he realizes what Goff is.   In any case, I hope he won't make same the mistake the Rams did with Goff, or the Vikings did with Cousins, when it comes time for a new contract.  And hopefully Goff's agent will remember that being overpaid relative to his ability is what got him run out of town from his last job.

 

Points: 1

#12 by Ajoe.Smith // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:04pm

Lovely article. Nice.

Points: 1

#22 by El Muneco // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:46pm

"Green set or tired career-lows with 24 catches, 236 yards, 9.8 yards per catch, two touchdowns, and 15.7 yards per game. "

 

Please leave that phrasing.

Points: 1

#23 by Kaepernicus // Jan 10, 2023 - 1:55pm

Hey Vince I think the Steve Young games and per game numbers are off. PFR has him at < 150 starts. If we go off of the 143 starts listed there he is at 72 DYAR per game which makes a lot more sense. Looks like you accidentally gave him Elway's game total in a spreadsheet.

Points: 0

#47 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:41pm

Correct. He played 169 games, not 234. We're using games, not starts, to be consistent with everyone else. As a starter, he hit 100 DYAR/Game twice, in 1992 and 1994. But that's not including his rushing DYAR, where he was usually first or second in the league.

Points: 2

#27 by reddwarf // Jan 10, 2023 - 2:40pm

Something's wrong.  There are no Broncos in the bottom 5 of anything.  None in the top 5 either, but that's expected.

Points: 0

#40 by Kaepernicus // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:00pm

The CMC trade looks a whole lot better now than it did when it happened. I think players like him are really stretching conventional positional value models. I don't know if he ran the same type of route tree in Carolina, but he was an effective receiver when lined up outside, in the slot, and out of the backfield. His receiving ability from so many places essentially gives Shanahan a second Deebo. CMC is only going to be a $12 million cap hit a year for the next 3 years too while effectively filling positional needs at 2 different positions depending on how Kyle needs to use him. It seems like a tall order to find an RB and a slot receiver as good as him with the 2, 3, 4, and 5 they traded in next years draft.

Points: 4

#49 by Pat // Jan 10, 2023 - 5:57pm

Yup, that's exactly what I said when he was traded. $12M for a running back *and* above average receiver is just not a serious amount of money.

Points: 1

#66 by Kaepernicus // Jan 11, 2023 - 10:01am

Was it really though? Pretty sure the Bears just shipped the 32nd pick in the draft for a worse WR. In 2019 SF sent a 3rd and 4th for Sanders on a half year rental. NE gave up a 2nd for Sanu. The draft haul would be steep if his contract was up at the end of the year. Getting him for 3.5 years at a reasonable rate seems like a good deal.

Points: 1

#42 by AFCNFCBowl // Jan 10, 2023 - 4:10pm

Andrews led all tight ends with 310 DYAR in 2021, catching 107 balls for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns while playing with a healthy Lamar Jackson. He was "only" sixth with 94 DYAR this year, catching 73 balls for 847 yards and five touchdowns as the Ravens' quarterback depth chart fell to pieces.

But the Ravens did not have a healthy Lamar Jackson in 5 games in 2021 - in fact Andrews caught more passes per game with backup QB's under center that year.

Points: 0

#48 by Ryan // Jan 10, 2023 - 5:22pm

Great read, Vince. Chock-full of delicious tidbits. 

Points: 0

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