Purdy's Prodigious Playoff Debut

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Wild Card - The last player picked in the 2022 draft finishes first in our quarterback rankings this week. Brock Purdy, San Francisco's quarterback prodigy, had one of the best playoff games of any rookie quarterback we have ever measured.

By now you know Purdy's big-picture bio: four good years at Iowa State, including two first-team All-Big 12 selections. Mr. Irrelevant in the draft, the last player selected. Expected to back up Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo entering the season. Relegated to our "Going Deep" section in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022, reserved for fringe backups and late-round picks, where we noted he had "a slow delivery and an inability to make tight-window throws," adding that "[if] he sees the field at all for San Francisco, something has gone horribly wrong."

Indeed, a lot went horribly wrong for Lance and Garoppolo, but since then everything has gone delightfully right for Purdy and the 49ers. Purdy's first start came in Week 14 against Tampa Bay, and San Francisco hasn't lost since. In the last five weeks of the regular season, Purdy threw 11 touchdowns, tied with Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes for most in the league, with only two interceptions; his 411 passing DYAR in that stretch trailed only Jared Goff (563), Trevor Lawrence (489), and Mahomes (429).

The 49ers opened the playoffs at home against the division-rival Seattle Seahawks, and though DK Metcalf and company made enough big plays to take a 17-16 halfime lead, Purdy and the 49ers rallied for a 41-23 victory. San Francisco scored on nine of their first 10 drives, and Purdy finished with an outstanding statline: 18-of-30 passing for 332 yards with three touchdowns, no interceptions, and only one sack. Here's a list of the players who have ever averaged 10 yards per pass with three touchdown throws and no interceptions in the playoffs. It's short; Purdy is only the 24th name to appear. And Purdy is now tied with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, John Elway, and others for third place; only Joe Montana (three times) and Peyton Manning (twice) have ever done it more than once.

Purdy's name now also appears on a list at Football Outsiders: the best games by rookie quarterbacks in the postseason. It is not, however, at the top of the list. Purdy will get at least one more chance to change that, but for now the honor still goes to Russell Wilson.

Best Playoff Games, Rookie QBs, 1981-2022
Year Wk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
2012 DIV Russell Wilson SEA 24/36 385 2 1 2 265 237 28 ATL
2022 WC Brock Purdy SF 18/30 332 3 0 1 203 192 11 SEA
2009 WC Mark Sanchez NYJ 12/15 182 1 0 0 136 136 0 CIN
2008 DIV Joe Flacco BAL 11/22 161 1 0 0 92 93 -1 TEN
2009 CCG Mark Sanchez NYJ 17/29 257 2 1 0 91 94 -3 IND
2016 DIV Dak Prescott DAL 24/37 302 3 1 2 74 70 4 GB
2021 DIV Mac Jones NE 24/37 232 2 2 3 58 52 6 BUF
2011 WC T.J. Yates HOU 11/20 159 1 0 2 54 54 0 CIN
2008 WC Joe Flacco BAL 9/23 135 0 0 0 47 30 17 MIA
1983 WC Dan Marino MIA 15/25 193 2 2 0 40 40 0 SEA
2000 WC Aaron Brooks NO 16/29 266 4 1 2 40 44 -4 STL
2012 WC Russell Wilson SEA 15/26 187 1 0 5 25 23 2 WAS

After defeating Washington 24-14 in the 2012 wild-card round, Wilson and the Seahawks traveled to Atlanta to take on the Atlanta Falcons, who had won the NFC South at 13-3 and earned a first-round bye in the playoffs. Thanks in part to that extra rest, Atlanta jumped out to a 20-0 halftime lead. Wilson then led a furious second-half rally and Seattle scored four touchdowns in five drives to take a 28-27 with 31 seconds to play. That was plenty of time for Matt Ryan, though; he completed two passes for 41 yards to set up Matt Bryant's game-winning 49-yard field goal and send Seattle home.

Wilson completed a higher share of his passes against Atlanta than Purdy did against Seattle (66.7% to 60.0%), but for a slightly worse average (10.7 to Purdy's 11.1) with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions and sacks. So why does he still sit atop this table? A few reasons:

  • While Purdy was usually playing with a lead and never trailed by more than a single point, Wilson spent most of his day chasing a huge deficit. It's harder to pass the ball effectively when you're down big on the scoreboard, and DYAR recognizes that.
     
  • Wilson's interception was a Hail Mary attempt on the last play of the game (it was caught by Julio Jones, of all people) and so it hardly affects his DYAR.
     
  • Opponent adjustments were not a huge factor, but they favored Wilson (+19 DYAR) more than Purdy (+7).
     
  • Wilson's passing DYAR was higher than Purdy's anyway, but he also had a big day on the ground, running seven times for 60 yards and a touchdown.

There is no shame in finishing second on this list, especially when you look how steep the drop-off is after Wilson and Purdy. Mark Sanchez is in third place for a 24-14 win over the Bengals in the wild-card round; he threw only 15 passes that day, and just five after halftime, but he still had a 45-yard touchdown to Dustin Keller with no sacks or interceptions. And … that's it. That's pretty much the end of the list of good playoff games by rookie quarterbacks. Nobody else has managed even triple-digit DYAR. Few first-year passers manage to reach the postseason, and most struggle badly once they get there.

Purdy has been an exception, and it's fair to ask whether he can keep it up, especially given the history of rookies who came before him. Purdy was unusually reliant on his receivers making plays with the ball in their hands in the regular season; 51.4% of his passing yards came after the catch, which would have placed him in the top 10 if he had played enough to qualify. (This is definitely a Kyle Shanahan thing: Garoppolo was in first place at 59.6%, though Lance was at 41.2% in limited action.) Against Seattle on Saturday, Purdy threw for 332 yards, 185 of which (55.8%) came after the catch. So yes, Purdy is getting a boost from the Shanahans and Christian McCaffreys and Deebo Samuels of the world … but then Shanahan, McCaffrey, and Samuel will also play a major role when the 49ers host the Cowboys or Buccaneers on Sunday. We should also remember that San Francisco had the NFL's best defense in the regular season. Even if Purdy isn't this good next week, the 49ers may not need him to be.

Players highlighted in yellow were added to Quick Reads after the Monday night game.

Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dak Prescott DAL
25/33
305
4
0
1
231
216
15
TB
2.
Brock Purdy SF
18/30
332
3
0
1
203
192
11
SEA
Purdy's average dropback gained a league-best 10.5 yards, but as noted, he got tons of help from his receivers. His average completion gained 10.3 yards after the catch, best in the NFL by nearly 3 full yards. That's one of the reasons he was the week's top passer on throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, going 4-of-5 for only 19 yards, but two touchdowns. He was also the week's best passer on throws down the middle (7-of-9 for 120 yards) and in the fourth quarter (5-of-7 for 124 yards and two touchdowns).
3.
Kirk Cousins MIN
31/39
273
2
0
0
142
137
5
NYG
Cousins' totals include -14 receiving DYAR for his one catch, a 2-yard loss on third-and-1. Despite a league-best 59% success rate, Cousins had a very streaky day. He completed each of his first nine passes (albeit for only 62 yards), then threw three incompletions in a row. Then from the middle of the second quarter through the end of the third, he caught fire, going 13-of-15 for 179 yards and two touchdowns. But he finished as the week's worst passer in the fourth quarter—yes, he completed nine of 12 passes, but for only 32 yards and one first down. He was tied for the league lead with eight failed completions. To his credit, he was still the NFL's top passer this week in the red zone (6-of-6 for 33 yards and two touchdowns) and on third/fourth downs (8-of-11 for 95 yards and five conversions).
4.
Daniel Jones NYG
24/35
301
2
0
3
123
100
22
MIN
Jones loses 40 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His rushing numbers: 13 carries for 81 yards. He led all passers in DYAR in the first quarter (5-of-5 for 100 yards and a touchdown) and on throws to the right (11-of-13 for 163 yards and a touchdown).
5.
Joe Burrow CIN
23/32
209
1
0
4
78
72
7
BAL
Burrow did not exactly finish this game on a high note. The Ravens tied the game at 17-all late in the third quarter; Burrow failed to throw for a single first down for the rest of the game, going 3-of-7 for 22 yards with a sack.
6.
Geno Smith SEA
25/35
253
2
1
3
63
51
12
SF
Smith gains a league-high 38 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the week's best passer in the second quarter (completing all four of his passes for 71 yards and a touchdown), but the worst in the red zone (2-of-5, 6 yards, one touchdown, one 8-yard DPI, two sacks, one fumble).
7.
Tom Brady TB
35/66
351
2
1
2
48
48
0
DAL
8.
Tyler Huntley BAL
17/29
226
2
1
2
-4
27
-31
CIN
Although he ran nine times for 54 yards, Huntley loses 29 DYAR for That Fumble, and only four of his runs picked up first downs. Remember how we said Burrow struggled after the Ravens tied the game at 17- all? Huntley struggled too, going 5-of-13 for 72 yards with two sacks.
9.
Justin Herbert LAC
25/43
273
1
0
3
-12
3
-15
JAX
Herbert loses 41 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His eight failed completions were tied for most in the league, and they came on a bunch of short throws—Herbert's average depth of target was an NFL-low 5.6 yards.
10.
Josh Allen BUF
23/39
352
3
2
7
-22
-13
-9
MIA
Allen's average depth of target, on the other hand, was an NFL-high 15.6 yards. And he was effective throwing deep, too, going 8-of-16 for 212 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
11.
Skylar Thompson MIA
18/45
220
1
2
4
-69
-62
-7
BUF
Thompson gains 36 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He still finished in last place in a variety of splits and categories, including average gain per dropback (3.9 yards), success rate (32%), average yards to go (10.2), deep balls (1-of-12 for 25 yards with an interception), and in the third quarter (2-of-10 for 25 yards with one 8-yard DPI, one interception, and one sack).
12.
Trevor Lawrence JAX
28/47
288
4
4
2
-80
-83
3
LAC
It will probably not surprise you to learn that Lawrence had the week's worst DYAR in the first half, but its best in the second. But consider that at the time of his fourth interception, he had gone 4-of-16 for 30 yards and a sack. His DYAR up to that point: -262. If he had been benched then, this would have been the worst game in all of the 2022 season, one of the 20 worst games on record, and the second-worst playoff game on record behind Kerry Collins' 112-yard, four-interception game in Super Bowl XXXV against Baltimore.
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Saquon Barkley NYG
9
53
2
5/6
56
0
50
19
32
MIN
The Vikings stuffed Barkley three times while only letting him run for three first downs, but those three plays were 2- and 28-yard touchdowns, plus a 16-yard gain on second-and-6. He added four more first downs as a receiver, the longest a gain of 24.
2.
J.K. Dobbins BAL
13
62
0
4/5
43
1
49
9
40
CIN
Dobbins gains 15 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Like Barkley, was stuffed three times while running for three first downs (on gains of 10, 13, and 15 yards). And he had three first downs on catches of 11 and 27 yards, along with a touchdown snag on third-and-goal from the 2.
3.
Kenneth Walker SEA
15
63
1
1/1
3
0
40
40
0
SF
Walker gains 19 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His longest run gained only 9 yards, but he picked up four first downs while being stuffed just twice.
4.
Rachaad White TB
7
41
0
4/6
36
0
37
18
19
DAL
5.
Christian McCaffrey SF
15
119
0
2/2
17
1
31
11
20
SEA
McCaffrey loses 10 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He ran for four first downs against Seattle, the longest a gain of 68, while being stuffed four times. His two catches: touchdown on second-and-goal from the 3; 14-yard gain on first-and-10.
6.
Devin Singletary BUF
10
48
0
0/0
0
0
26
26
0
MIA
The Dolphins allowed Singletary to gain at least 2 yards on each of his 10 carries while letting him run for four first downs, the longest a gain of 13.
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kenneth Walker SEA
15
63
1
1/1
3
0
40
40
0
SF
2.
Devin Singletary BUF
10
48
0
0/0
0
0
26
26
0
MIA
3.
Saquon Barkley NYG
9
53
2
5/6
56
0
50
19
32
MIN
4.
Rachaad White TB
7
41
0
4/6
36
0
37
18
19
DAL
5.
Tony Pollard DAL
15
77
0
3/3
12
0
20
16
4
TB
6.
Austin Ekeler LAC
13
35
2
2/4
8
0
0
14
-14
JAX
The Jaguars stuffed Ekeler four times and only let him run for three first downs, but two of those first downs were scoring plays. His two catches: 4-yard gain on second-and-13, 4-yard gain on second-and-17.
7.
Christian McCaffrey SF
15
119
0
2/2
17
1
31
11
20
SEA
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Dalvin Cook MIN
15
60
0
6/7
10
0
-30
-13
-17
NYG
Cook loses 19 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Only two of his carries went for first downs, the longest a gain of 11, and he was stuffed twice. As a receiver, he lost yardage more often (twice) than he picked up a first down (once).
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk
Player
Team
Runs
Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1.
Elijah Mitchell SF
9
2
0
2/3
25
1
-18
-38
20
SEA
None of Mitchell's nine carries picked up a first down, counted as a successful play, or gained more than 4 yards. Most of them came with San Francisco up by 21 points in the fourth quarter, but that's no excuse to average 0.2 yards per carry.
Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Deebo Samuel SF
6
9
133
22.2
1
59
SEA
Samuel's totals include 18 rushing DYAR for his three carries for 32 yards. He had four first downs as a receiver, including a pair of third-down conversions and a 74-yard touchdown.
2.
Dalton Schultz DAL
7
8
95
13.6
2
48
TB
3.
DK Metcalf SEA
10
13
136
13.6
2
48
SF
Seven of Metcalf's catches picked up first downs, the longest a 50-yard touchdown on third-and-3.
4.
Gabriel Davis BUF
6
9
113
18.8
1
48
MIA
Five total first downs, each of which gained at least 13 yards, the longest a gain of 33, and also with a 23-yard touchdown.
5.
Isaiah Hodgins NYG
8
9
105
13.1
1
40
MIN
Only four of Hodgins' touchdowns gained first downs, but they included a gain of 32 and a 14-yard touchdown.
6.
Stefon Diggs BUF
7
9
114
16.3
0
38
MIA
Only four of Diggs' touchdowns gained first downs, but they included gains of 20 and 52 yards.
Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Russell Gage TB
2
8
10
5.0
0
-49
DAL
Gage left the game and was taken to a hospital with a concussion and possible neck injury. We wish him a quick recovery.
2.
Tyreek Hill MIA
7
15
69
9.9
0
-27
BUF
Hill's totals include 5 DYAR rushing for his two carries for 5 yards (an 8-yard gain on second-and-4 and a 3-yard loss on first-and-10). He still finishes in last place despite catching seven passes for 69 yards, which sounds … OK? But only four of those completions picked up first downs while two counted as failed plays. Oh, and then there's the eight incomplete targets. That all adds up to a horrible 4.6-yard average over 15 targets, and a ton of negative DYAR spread out over several small doses. Plus, in six games, there just weren't very many bad games for receivers. In a full slate in Week 18, there were seven WR/TE games worse than this.

Comments

38 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2023, 2:41pm

#1 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Jan 16, 2023 - 11:07am

Surprised that it was Hill, not Waddle, as the worst WR for the weekend games.  Must be a volume thing, as Waddle seemed worse during the game, but on fewer targets.

Points: 7

#21 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 16, 2023 - 4:56pm

Waddle had negative DYAR, but he was not in the bottom 10 WR/TEs this week. He had a 7-3-44 statline, with only one first down. But when your efficiency is as bad as Hill and Waddle's were, more targets = more negative DYAR, and Hill doubled Waddle in targets.

Points: 0

#24 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 16, 2023 - 5:04pm

I should also mention SEA TE Colby Parkinson, who was neck-and-neck with Hill at the bottom of the table. Six targets, three catches, only 14 yards, zero first downs. That looks a lot more like what you'd expect from the worst WR/TE of the week.

Points: 0

#31 by DGL // Jan 17, 2023 - 12:31pm

"This receiving is terrible!"

"Yes, and such small portions!"

Points: 1

#2 by Will Allen // Jan 16, 2023 - 12:52pm

If there ever was a game to prove that statistcal analysis divorced from film study can lead to very poor performance evaluation, Purdy's oerformance on Saturday is it. He was extremely bad in the 1st half, wildly missing on easy, easy, downfield throws to wide open receivers. Against a good defense,  Purdy might have thrown multiple ints in the 1st half. Against what the  Seattle defense did against the Shanahan scheme on Saturday, competent qb play during the entire game might have resulted in the Niners scoring 60.

Having said that, Purdy did some nice work in the 2nd half, and his last throw into the end zone, which was dropped, was remarkable. Maybe the 1st half was much more the anomaly, for a young, very inexperienced, and rapidly improving player. That's why games are fun to watch!

 

 

Points: 0

#5 by Chuckc // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:15pm

Yeah Purdy's splits by half must be incredible. Not quite Trevor Lawrence scale but he was bad in the first half. I think the 2 minute drill at the end of the half is what settled him down.

Points: 0

#9 by Will Allen // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:35pm

His actual performance was much worse than his numbers, especially in the 1st half. Just tabulating an incompletion doesn't capture  "wildly missed a wide open receiver, 25 yards downfield, while under no pressure, in a way that a good defense likely would have intercepted".

Points: 0

#22 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 16, 2023 - 4:59pm

Purdy DYAR by quarter:

Q1: 28 (5th)
Q2: 24 (5th)
Q3: 50 (5th)
Q4: 90 (1st, twice as much as anyone else)

Points: 0

#6 by Kaepernicus // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:17pm

He's had bad quarters in multiple games. Typically it has been the first or second quarter and it is usually related to getting out of rhythm because of new defensive looks. When I saw he wasn't wearing gloves in the warm up I was pretty worried considering how hard it was raining before the game. Sure enough on his first throw the ball slipped and he sailed it on one of his dropped picks. After that he seemed to press for about 3 drives before getting into a rhythm and really leaning into his scrambling ability. I am not really worried about him suddenly becoming an interception machine. The biggest spot that scares me on TO potential is fumbling. He gets a little wild when he is evading pressure and I can see strips coming in the near future. That was one of his issues at ISU too.

His 60% completion rate is a mirage though. He had at least 3 throwaways after evading pressure that would have been sacks or worse with Jimmy back there. Even though SF has faced an average schedule of defenses since Purdy took over they have faced a lot of veteran defensive coaches that have thrown a lot of weird looks at him. The Dolphins were insanely aggressive blitzing and Purdy killed them against the blitz. TB did a bunch of simulated pressure stuff where they dropped d linemen and rushed LBs in weird formations. Seattle in the first game barely blitzed him and forced him to beat coverage. Teams have put him through the gauntlet with schemes. Playing Dallas or Philly will be interesting because they have great athletes on the line. Some of these moves he has pulled off will not work on Micah Parsons. I think he is going to take a lot of sacks against either of those teams. I also think he will get away and make some big plays too. The Commies game was his best game of the year when you consider just how talented that defensive line is. Either way it's pretty insane that he has been this good this fast.

Points: 4

#10 by bravehoptoad // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:37pm

You don't think a statistical analysis of Purdy's first half/second half splits would tell you much? The trouble with the aggregate here is that it hides the story, crappy first half, great 2nd half. 

Even with film study, PFF gave Purdy an overall grade of 89.4. I'm surprised by that high of a score. I mean, theoretically these PFF grades separate out the QB's performance from that of his skill players, so wow, that's high.

And Shanahan QBs always have this problem with evaluation: how much credit does the play caller get? Look at poor Jimmy G: the guy gets no respect. There are some stats that try to get at that, like Completion Percentage Over Expectation, but I haven't seen anyone try to quantify the value of the o-coordinator. I mean, how many DYAR does Kyle Shanahan add over Mike LaFleur or Mike McDaniel? 

Points: 0

#11 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:56pm

I mean, how many DYAR does Kyle Shanahan add over Mike LaFleur or Mike McDaniel? 

Mike McDaniel has the 'crippling injuries' part figured out.

Points: 0

#15 by bravehoptoad // Jan 16, 2023 - 2:13pm

If he adds the Big Game Choke to his resume, he'll be right on track.

Points: 1

#17 by Bored // Jan 16, 2023 - 3:40pm

Not sure where you saw an 89.4 as I'm looking at PFF, they gave Purdy a 73.6 overall with a 67.3 passing grade and 79.2 running which seems more reasonable. Maybe that was their initial grade and then they just adjusted it.

Points: 0

#32 by Ryan // Jan 17, 2023 - 1:38pm

If that's the difference between their initial grades and their adjusted, maybe they should just not bother with the initial grade at all. What's the point?

Points: 0

#3 by Kaepernicus // Jan 16, 2023 - 12:58pm

When I saw Purdy was second I knew it was the ATL Russ game. Purdy's stats/game is remarkably similar to rookie Russ as well. Really high TD% with lower yards than you would expect because they frequently build huge leads and have coaches that lean on the running game as a philosophy. His scrambling ability is just unreal. Every time I watch him he seems to pull out some new trick to evade some rusher in the pocket. That shoulder dip to spin sequence he did on one of his TD passes was nuts. It was very cathartic watching the Seahawks deal with some slippery bastard dancing around for 30 minutes after being subjected to a decade of it from them. 

Everybody is talking about Kirk but I think the biggest thing I noticed in the Vikings game is Dalvin Cook is not worth the money at all. His whole game seems predicated on home runs and he is not going to age gracefully with that style as he loses explosiveness. I thought Kirk played well considering all of the pressure he was dealing with, especially up the middle, and was just worn down by the 4th quarter. Kirk is a tough dude but he needs some support and they have to figure out a way to get a legitimate running game in Minnesota if they are going to run it back. They shouldn't run it back though. They need to tear it down and sell off everything outside of JJ. Maybe even trade JJ if the offer is good enough.

Points: 2

#7 by Will Allen // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:28pm

The Vikings guards and center are too poor to get much value from Cook. After they pay Jefferson, and factoring Cousins' contract, and what their defense looks like, it's just a mess, even though they're pretty good at offensive tackle.

Points: 0

#18 by big10freak // Jan 16, 2023 - 3:53pm

Aaron Jones and Cook came into the league the same year, have somewhat similar profiles (smaller, explosive, susceptible to injuries so load management needs to be in  place) and both teams may well be parting ways with their respective players before next season due to age/salary considerations.

 

Personally (and I am sure I posted this before the 2022 season) I think GB should reach an agreement with 12, keep A Jones and see what the team has in Love with Jones/Watson as the playmakers.  I will hold to that view.  

 

Jones is as productive as ever, the load mgt looks to be working so the 'tread on his tires' is not excessive, and the GB line is solid enough though the team should be looking to upgrade at center.  And he's a playmaker.  Can never have too many on the roster

 

Cook meanwhile looks wasted on the Vikes with a line that really cannot leverage his abilities effectively

 

 

Points: 0

#4 by fynsta // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:02pm

While watching the game, I knew that Purdy was gonna be rated extremely high by DVOA/DYAR. But I was just not impressed at all by him hitting receivers that were either open with 10 yards separation or gave him a ton of YAC. Sure, he had a few good plays, but overall he just did not look particularly good to me.

On the other hand, I was positively impressed by Thompson - if Waddle hadn't dropped multiple deep balls, we might be talking differently about that game by him.

Points: 1

#8 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 16, 2023 - 1:29pm

Interesting that DVOA loved Cousins' game.

Points: 0

#12 by AFCNFCBowl // Jan 16, 2023 - 2:02pm

But Cook was the worst RB of the week. DVOA hates the Vikings in part because their running game has been terrible, and that happened again yesterday

Points: 0

#16 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Jan 16, 2023 - 3:10pm

Watching the game live, I thought Cousins was playing well, so not surprised by his DVOA/DYAR stats.  It was the Vikings defense that looked lost, not the offense. 

The last impression, the check down pass to Hockenson on 4th down, left a bad last impression, but overall it wasn't a bad game.  Cousins' explanation of the check down also made a lot of sense.  Sure, in an ideal world you cycle back through your reads to the least bad one, but in real life by the time he got to his last read it was it or a sack, so toss it to your TE and hope he breaks the tackle.  Long story short, nobody was open on that play while Cousins was looking at them, a rare instance of good Giants defense during the game. 

 

Points: 0

#25 by hoegher // Jan 16, 2023 - 5:56pm

Theilen was open, Osborn was an option, and if you have the best WR in the league, throwing a ball to him even double-covered is a way better option than a check-down on 4th down.

Points: 0

#23 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 16, 2023 - 5:02pm

The Vikings scored 24 points with no turnovers. That's usually enough to win. And New York has the worst run defense in the league (which will be bad news against Philadelphia, but anyway...) but their pass defense is close to average.

Points: 0

#28 by andrew // Jan 17, 2023 - 8:03am

Dalvin Cook broke some long runs, without him they probably would have lost at Miami and Buffalo (I still think they would have beat the Colts without his long screen pass).  But despite that the combo of him and that line is just a huge liability.   They could have gone 11-6 with Alexander Mattison as the feature back and still been the #3 seed.  

I feel confident Kwesi can see this, at least now.   I could argue he should have seen this already.    Given Dalvin's stfuff rate it is somewhat disconcerting that they kept feeding him the ball as much as they did.

I don't think Cook has that much trade value now.    If they cut him and he gets on the right team with a good line he could still be a good contributor.  

Points: 0

#13 by Will Allen // Jan 16, 2023 - 2:04pm

He certainly didn't play badly. The last throw was ill advised, but qbs getting quick pressure up the middle sometimes make poor choices. I've said from the beginning of his time in Minny that there's nothing wrong with him that a 15% pay cut wouldn't mitigate to a large extent. Shockingly, The 'Cuz prefers to maximize his income, in return for the bludgeoning he takes.

Points: 0

#19 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 16, 2023 - 4:14pm

He's basically operated in fiscal Fuck You mode since the 'skins serially capped him.

And deservedly so.

Points: 0

#20 by Will Allen // Jan 16, 2023 - 4:25pm

And Jefferson should definitely adopt that same approach.

Points: 0

#26 by KnowGuruz // Jan 16, 2023 - 7:43pm

You said its harder to pass when your down by alot but is it really in the sense of those soft shells defenses are playing, giving up underneath stuff which inflate offenses stats. And because they are losing the QB gets more oppurtunity. When In reality if he was so dominant they wouldnt be losing in the first place.. If anything Purdy shouldve got a boost then (compared to Wilson) because his team won. Had they not blown them out maybe he wouldve thrown for another 200 yards and 3 TDs. I dont believe these ratings are then accurate to decide who had a better game. In fact its pretty worthless because it also clearly gives the QB way too much credit when his receivers are the ones generating all the yards. I would think air yards means something in the context of evaluating QBs

Points: 1

#27 by BlueStarDude // Jan 17, 2023 - 7:57am

Thanks for the quick update with the Monday night game stats.

Points: 0

#29 by The Powers That Be // Jan 17, 2023 - 11:14am

I would not have figured Brady for positive DYAR. Where was he before the last 18 minutes, when the Cowboys (but not DVOA) started treating it like garbage time?

(I'm not saying DVOA should be treating it differently, especially the last drive of the 3rd and the first drive of the 4th, just saying the Cowboys changed their defense at that point).

Points: 1

#34 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 17, 2023 - 3:02pm

Brady DYAR by quarter:

Q1: 16 (6th)
Q2: -54 (11th)
Q3: 70 (3rd)
Q4: 16 (5th)

Remember that the first quarter ended with Brady driving the Bucs to a first-and-goal at the 5 ... and then the second began with Brady throwing an incompletion on first down and an interception on second.

And yes, most of his good plays after that came in the last 18 minutes of the game. He closed the third quarter with a 95-yard touchdown drive; his last play of the quarter was the 30-yard touchdown to Julio Jones.

The other reason Brady is higher than you might have guessed is opponent adjustments. Without them, he was just barely below replacement level.

Points: 1

#30 by Mike B. In Va // Jan 17, 2023 - 11:20am

Do touchdowns count as first downs?

(Diggs & Hodgins commentary)

Points: 0

#35 by slacksterest // Jan 18, 2023 - 6:46am

I can't believe you passed up Purdy's Precocious Playoff Premier. Don't go half way with the alliteration. 

Points: 0

#38 by Vincent Verhei // Jan 18, 2023 - 2:41pm

DAMMIT ALL TO HELL. And Precocious is a better word than Prodigious. 

I'm going to go sulk in the corner now.

Points: 0

#36 by JimZipCode // Jan 18, 2023 - 11:23am

Possible typo?

You say “Nobody else has managed even double-digit DYAR.”  But the table shows Flacco, Sanchez, Dak, Mac Jones all in the 58 to 90 range.  Everyone on the table has double-digit DYAR.

Maybe you meant triple-digit?

Points: 0

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