Travis Kelce and the Year of the Tight End

NFL Divisional - Call it quits, quarterbacks. Take a walk, wideouts. Hit the road, running backs. This is 2023, the year of the tight end, and Travis Kelce is cementing his legacy as the best playoff tight end of all time.

Kelce caught 14 passes for 98 yards and two scores in the Kansas City Chiefs' divisional-round win over Jacksonville, but despite all that volume, he doesn't make our list of top receivers this week because of opponent adjustments; the Jaguars were dead last in coverage against the position. But the top four players on our list are tight ends, not wide receivers. That includes San Francisco's George Kittle, who had five catches for 95 yards against Dallas, as well as Cincinnati's Hayden Hurst (5-59-1 against Buffalo), Philadelphia's Dallas Goedert (5-58-1 against the Giants), and Buffalo's Dawson Knox (5-65-0 against Cincinnati).

Plenty of tight ends had big games in the wild-card round too. Dalton Schultz qualified for Quick Reads with 95 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Tampa Bay, and elsewhere, the Chargers' Gerald Everett went over 100 yards with a touchdown (again, against the Jaguars), Minnesota's T.J. Hockenson had 10 catches for 129 yards against the Giants, and Jacksonville's Evan Engram had 93 yards and a touchdown against L.A.

None of those games are threatening any Football Outsiders records (Kelce's 10-catch, 134-yard, three-touchdown game against Houston in the 2019 wild-card round remains the most valuable tight end game in our database, regular-season or postseason), but in terms of pure volume, we have never seen postseason production like this from the position. After this weekend's games, tight ends are averaging 11.1 standard fantasy points, 17.1 PPR points, 17.5 DraftKings points, and 14.1 FanDuel points per team per game in the playoffs. Since the merger with the AFL in 1970, that's neck-and-neck with the 2011 season for the best such marks on record.

Thus far, Schultz has been the top fantasy tight end of this postseason (12 catches, 122 yards, three touchdowns), but that seems temporary. Schultz and the Cowboys have been eliminated, which means Kelce (35.8 PPR points in just one game) will probably pass him in the AFC Championship Game. Speaking of which, Cincinnati's Hayden Hurts (9-104-1) has 23.4 PPR points and could also wind up on top with another big game or two. 

The only postseason that can compare to this was in 2011. That was the peak of the Aaron Hernandez-Rob Gronkowski Patriots, as the duo combined for 36 catches, 446 yards, and five touchdowns and helped New England reach the Super Bowl, where they lost to the Giants. Jimmy Graham also had a big year, going 12-158-3 in two games with the Saints. None of them, however, could hold a candle to Vernon Davis. In only two playoff games, Davis caught 10 passes for 292 yards (29.2 yards per catch!) and four, count 'em, four touchdowns.

Most of the seasons listed here took place in this century, but one notable exception came in 1981, over 40 years ago. There was no particular dominant tight end that year, but a lot of guys had big games in one-and-done situations. The Jets' Mickey Shuler, Miami's tandem of Bruce Hardy and Joe Rose, and Tampa Bay's Jimmie Giles had a total of 17 catches for 340 yards and four touchdowns even though they played just one game each. Elsewhere, San Diego's Kellen Winslow caught 13 passes for 166 yards and a touchdown (plus a blocked field goal to force overtime) in a 41-38 overtime win over the Dolphins, then added three catches for 47 yards and another score in the AFC Championship Game against Cincinnati. It was the Bengals' Don Ross, whoever, who had the best totals that season: 22 catches for 244 yards and two touchdowns, including an 11-104-2 performance in a 26-21 loss to San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

Kelce will likely finish as the top fantasy tight end of these playoffs. But he also appears three other times in the prior table, as the recent surge in tight end scoring almost seems to be entirely his doing:

• Kelce's 85.0 PPR points in the 2020 playoffs are the record for a single postseason; he caught 31 passes for 360 yards and three touchdowns in three games as the Chiefs lost the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay.
• Kelce's 75.0 PPR points in last year's playoffs are the second-most for a tight end in a single postseason; he caught 23 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns as the Chiefs lost the AFC Championship Game to Cincinnati.
• Kelce's 63.9 PPR points in the 2019 playoffs are the third-most for a tight end in a single postseason; he caught 19 passes for 207 yards and four touchdowns as the Chiefs beat San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

Kelce now has 120 receptions in the playoffs, a post-merger record for tight ends. His 1,389 receiving yards are exactly tied with Rob Gronkowski (nobody else has even 900), and he trails Gronk by one touchdown, 15 to 14 (nobody else has more than seven). He should be alone in first place in yardage by halftime of the AFC Championship Game, and could surpass Gronkowski's touchdown total in the next game or two as well.

We wrote two weeks ago that Kelce was the best tight end of his era based on his regular-season statistics. But by ignoring his playoff success, we were actually selling him short.

Two other notes before we get to this week's players:

• Kelce is shooting to lead tight ends in postseason fantasy scoring for the fourth time. That would tie him with Gronkowski, who did it in 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018 with New England. Two others did it three times each: Mark Bavaro of the Giants (1985, 1986, 1990) and Keith Jackson (with three different teams—Philadelphia in 1988, Miami in 1994, and Green Bay in 1995).
• Speaking of Jackson, what was up with dudes named Keith in that era? You also had Buffalo's Keith McKeller on top in 1991, Kansas City's Keith Cash in 1993, and New England's Keith Byars in 1996.