FOA 2010 Preview

FOA 2010 Preview

The release of Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 is just around the corner, and to get people excited, we've decided to release some sample material from the book. This year's free samples include the SEC East by David Gardner and the New York Jets by Bill Barnwell. (This is the Jets chapter referenced in the recent ESPN Magazine piece on Darrelle Revis.)

Pricing for FOA 2010 will be the same as last year:

  • $12 for the PDF download
  • $20 for the print-to-order book
  • $30 for a package that includes the KUBIAK fantasy projections workbook along with the PDF download
  • $60 for the PDF download, KUBIAK workbook, and a year subscription to Football Outsiders Premium -- since Premium is normally $40 and KUBIAK is normally $20, this essentially means you get Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 for free.
  • $5 for a special PDF download containing just the Football Outsiders College Football Almanac 2010

BY POPULAR DEMAND! We will also offer a new "Fantasy Football Haters Package" that includes just a year of Premium and a copy of FOA 2010 for $48.

KUBIAK officially goes on sale Friday afternoon. (Note: You can now purchase KUBIAK and FOA 2010 in the FO store.) This week, only the KUBIAK projections and the College Football Almanac will be available. However, in order to allow package purchases, people who buy the regular FOA 2010 (or a package that includes the regular FOA 2010) will be able to download the college football material now, and then come back in a week to get the full FOA 2010.

The print-to-order, standard book version of FOA 2010 will then be available 10-14 days after we start selling the PDF, which means it will go up on Amazon sometime around July 18. Createspace has now added a distribution channel for actual bookstores; if you work for a bookstore and are interested in ordering copies of FOA 2010, please e-mail us at Contact Us.

We hope everyone enjoys the samples and we look forward to bringing you the whole book very soon.

P.S. Please note that we are re-working the NFL season simulation to reflect recent events like the injury to Pittsburgh's Willie Colon, so the percentages listed in the Jets sample chapter may not be quite the same as the final version of the book.

Comments

81 comments, Last at 11 Jul 2010, 2:58pm

1 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Dear FO:

I have been a regular subscriber to Footaball Prospectus / Almanac for the last 3 years, it is an excellent product and I plan to keep buying it every JULY.

I have read about the KUBIAK, and have interest to purchase but I will like to see a sample or try it out. Can you send me 2009 files so I can check-it out and determine if I should buy the 2010 version?

Thanks and keep the good work,

Myron

3 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

In reply to by Myron Isaacs (not verified)

FO usually has the previous year's version of KUBIAK at a discounted price at their store once the new one comes out.

2 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Giants last year, and now the Jets. FO HAS A NEW YORK BIAS!

16 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Heh. At first it was going to be Atlanta, but we were already doing the SEC preview and didn't want to be accused of a deep South bias.

75 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

New Jersey bias, which is actually a reality TV bias based on that show where the fat guys make outrageous cakes, and the show at the shore. (Sopranos also affected it.) If actual football would return to its rightful place on TV 24/7, the TV-based NJ bias will fade away and morph into a favorite team bias. Which we all have in one way or another.

4 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Looking at the most comparable quarterbacks list tells me one thing. You can't tell what a quarterback will become from his rookie season. If I were a Jet's fan I would be excited by Sanchez. His mistakes seemed to be the learning variety and the not fuck it I'm going deep variety like certain Rex Grossman.

28 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Hmm... the only thing that stands out on that list is that the comparable QB's who turned out to be bad generally had fewer attempts (Tony Banks, JaMarcus, etc.) while the ones who turned out to be good threw more often (Everett, Aikman, Elway.) That seems to indicate that maybe the good QB's were forced to throw too much and maybe that depressed their numbers overall, they were relied too much while developing.

Since Sanchez is on the lower side of attempts (tied for the lowest with QB's Neil Lomax and Kerry Collins), that's the only indicator either way about and him (a very tentative negative one.) But, we're only talking a difference of 35 attempts with Aikman and 16 with Elway. (48 with Everett, 51 with... Trent Dilfer?)

8 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Ah, he also has a generally lower completion % than the good ones - 53% for the bad QB's and 56% for the good ones (Sanchez being at 53.8% and only higher than Everett amongst the soo-so to good QB's). That sorta synches up with the Lewin forecasts (somehow?)

And, if I'm right about any of this, then Cardinals fans have a tiny reason for hope - Leinart is middle of the pack in attempts and top-notch in completion %.

9 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I can think of mitigating circumstances for attempts and completion percentage.

For attempts, most highly drafted QBs are going to back teams, where they need to pass to try and win games, or they can pass because the coach can let them learn and they team is going to lose anyways. Sanchez was on a good team, and they were making sure he didn't lose the game for them.

For completion percentage, he had Braylon Edwards on his team :P

14 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

But Tony Banks took over a bad Rams team, Jamarcus a bad Raiders team and Neil Lomax a bad Cardinals team. Jamarcus was the only high draft pick, but the other two guys were 2nd rounders, which is not a 5th rounder with tiny expectations or something like that. Banks and Lomax also got a little time to get acclimated and were expected to be bona fide, no pulled-punches starters when they took over in the years out-lined in the comparables chart.

Braylon actually didn't have a huge amount of drops last year - certainly not enough to be a factor in completion % (and, yeah, I know you're joking, but still...)

18 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Well this is a complicated game. Also, we're dealing with different numbers of games started. I doubt anyone thinks that Sanchez missing a game due to injury will affect his long term viability, but that's about 24 attempts he missed out on.

Also, if you included his playoff stats, his completion percentage probably gets a boost.

27 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Yeah, but looking at games played actually bumps my point just a touch, in that only Tony Banks had fewer passes per game and it brings Trent Dilfer back to the pack as far as attempts per game. It only gives Collins and Leinart a significant boost in attempts per game...

So it break down like this:

Attempts per game:
Lomax 22.75
Sanchez 24.2
Woodley 24.4
Jamarcus 24.5
Elway 25.3 (although most rushes of any of these QB's)
Dilfer 25.9
Banks 26.2
Aikman 26.6
Everett 27.4
Collins 28
Leinart 31.4

Aikman, Leinart, Collins, Elway with 56% completion or higher. Everyone else 54% or under. The list does separate the wheat from the chaff pretty coherently there, certainly better than I would've thought... Sanchez being low in both categories doesn't seem like a good sign... (unless being the next David Woodley is a good thing.)

29 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

That is, we can agree the above average QB's on the list are Elway, Aikman, Everett & Collins - with the jury out on Leinart & Sanchez. Everett is middle of the pack in completion percentage & Elway middle of the pack in attempts (with a lot of scrambles as the mitigating factor there.)

Everett is similar to Sanchez in completion percentage but higher in attempts. Elway exceeds in both attempts (sans rushes) and completion percentage...

I guess if Leinart is good and Sanchez mediocre (or worse) this season, I'm right. Any other outcome is a fluke of sample size in what I'm saying here...

33 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Looks like it's better to be middle of the pack than either end point.

And the point still stands that being on a good team with a great defense and running attack depressed his attempts. Yes, "Tony Banks took over a bad Rams team, Jamarcus a bad Raiders team and Neil Lomax a bad Cardinals team," that means Sanchez was good enough to attempt as many passes as them with the depression factored in.

Guess I'll see you in 2-3 years and we find out who was right.

34 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Really? That's assuming Leinart is bad. Everett, Elway, Aikman and Collins are the end points - Collin and Everett were great QB's (there's an argument to be made that they were both better than Aikman, but let's not get into that) and if Sanchez can reach that level, the Jets will have hit the jackpot. Tony Banks, Woodley, Dilfer - that's the middle. And they are the definition of mediocre. Jamarcus & Sanchez are towards the other endpoint...

But, no, I won't see you in a couple years, we need to settle this TODAY.

5 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Love the Jets preview, excellent stuff here

6 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFtb3EtjEic

7 Bart Scott

Bart Scott, most unlucky pass rusher ever? 1 sack, 10 hits, and 18 hurries. Ouch.

11 Re: Bart Scott

In reply to by tuluse

Is this a function of being an ILB? I can see how running straight towards the QB in the middle of the line with both hands in the air can lead to the QB spotting you and throwing the ball away before you can sack him.

17 Re: Bart Scott

In reply to by Jimmy

Some players, Alex Brown for example, seem to get a lot more hurries than sacks and it always seems to be guys that lack a real burst of speed to close on the quarterback.

22 Re: Bart Scott

In reply to by Karl Cuba

I'm not sure that's the case with Bart Scott...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcwXBMDk9p0

10 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I tend to think the jets were worse than their final dvoa suggests. The deviance of Z-score suggests that revis had quite possibly the luckiest season ever for a cornerback. Based on the mean, he finished in the top 99% of seasons, suggesting dominance or extreme luck. My take on his season is that someone has to fill the top 1% and he just happened to be the lucky guy to make it. Im not saying hes not good, i just dont think theres a difference between him and the other top cornerbacks.

Atleast 2 of his picks were extremely flukey. one of them was the play where the ball bounced off broken arm steve smiths achiles tendon right into his arms. Another one was the antonio freeman back catch #2 against vincent jackson in the playoffs. Those plays dont duplicate themselves and especially dont duplicate themselves to the same individual defensive player. I guess where im going with this is that Revis either is the best cornerback of all time and will continue to be an absolute machine, or he had the flukey season of a lifetime. Im taking the flukey route and am expecting more of a drop off in production than the 10% suggested in the reading.

regardless, im excited for the almanac coming up! july 8th is the official start of the regular season.

13 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Nathan Vasher made a career out of being in the right spot at the right time. His luck lasted 3 years before injuries prevented him from getting to the right spot.

15 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

It's funny with Revis - I remember there was talk here in NY of him being a bust, so it's not like he's hasn't had his "downs."

30 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Don't remember any serious footbal writer, blogger, etc, describe Revis as a bust at any point. He had a decent rookie season and made the Pro Bowl in his second year.

19 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Well, for one thing the picks are not major factors in the FO stats in which Revis dominated. For another, could there not be a middle way? Could he not be a truly great, Hall of Fame cornerback (but not the greatest of all time) who had a season that was kinda fluky but not a million miles from the level he should be expected to play going forwards? Because I think that's about what FO are suggesting, and it seems reasonable to me.

25 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

No, players can only be the best ever or the worst ever. (i am an Eagles fan, incidentally.)

26 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Well then you should be aware of a clear 3rd option. Players can be both the best and worst ever depending on how they played in the last game.

40 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

its a possibility that he is a future hall of fame corner that had a fluky season but not a million miles from his future play, but i don't think itll happen. barnwell is thinking 10% worse play (whatever that means) but im thinking closer to 20% worse play (whatever that means). How many corners make the jump to elite and truly stay there? Champ, Asumogha, deion, then it gets fuzzy. More end up going the route of asante, charles woodson, and the jags corner that is good but not elite (brain fart). Even some go the way of cromartie, vasher, or mo money clements. Im not ready to say hes a champ nnamdi or deion, i think its more likely he is an asante, charles or that jags guy im brainfarting on.

42 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Ok, but we need to distinguish between great cover seasons and seasons where players had a lot of picks. Samuel has always been a guy who gives up his fair share of completions: he's valuable because his instincts, ball skills and proclivity for gambling enable him to pick off a lot of passes, but no-one's ever mistaken him for a first rate cover guy. Vasher and Cromartie are both guys who got pro-bowl selections after a single season with a bunch of picks: that is exactly what you expect a fluky year from a fairly average corner to look like. Mathis and Clements are slightly fairer comparisons, but neither of them has been to more than one pro-bowl (Revis has two in three seasons as a pro) and neither of them ever had a season nearly as dominant as Revis' 2009. Woodson obviously has been to a bunch of pro-bowls and been all pro twice, but again the peak's still not as high and I'm inclined to think Woodson probably belongs in Canton anyway. Bailey's best seasons (I believe 2005 was the particular highlight) may have been somewhat comparably good. Asomugha is very hard to compare to anyone because he's targeted so seldom, but his best years may also be in the ballpark, in terms of level of play if not measurable production. But that's the point: I'm really not convinced that any less than great player has ever had a season that was even arguably nearly as good as Revis did last year. I would bet on Revis to go to Canton at even money. There's not many players I would say that of at age 24.

45 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Well, Shush, you convinced me. If Revis and Asomugha aren't the two best CB's in football next year, I'll be shocked. If Revis isn't dominant, I'll be shocked. Also, mentioning Sameul is actually what clenched it because Samuel may or may not be "great" but he's perfectly utilized by both Jim Johnson and McDermott (for at least one season) - which is exactly the situation Revis is in: Ryan engineers the plays to go towards him and he delivers.

51 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

You might be right about the even money and canton but the problem with corner is that its definately one of the hardest positions to judge. The reason he has a greater chance than most at making canton is because corner seems like reputation is what matters most. Deion is highly thought of as the corner of the 90's yet I am not moving from my position saying that Rod woodson was a much better player. His main problem was that he didn't hoot and holler about how great he was as much as deion did. Revis has the right amount of pizzaz to make people get excited and stick with him. A season like last year made his career. He could be merely mediocre and will still make it to the next 7 or 8 pro bowls.

67 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

In reply to by El Nino Meon (not verified)

I think he failing to take the injury factor into account.

After 3 years Terrell Davis would have looked like he was on a HOF>

12 Question to Jets fans

Has anyone noticed Bart Scott dropping back to cover a deep half of the field for the Jets? In Ryan's book he talks about how his father used to use Mike Singletary to do this when they ran their cover 6z coverage and I am wondering if Rex uses a similar approach from the 3-4 variant of what is a very similar pressure scheme to his father.

20 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

So this means we can't get the book from a good old fashion brick and mortar store (again)?

23 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

"Createspace has now added a distribution channel for actual bookstores; if you work for a bookstore and are interested in ordering copies of FOA 2010, please e-mail us at info-at-footballoutsiders.com."

54 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Could have been worse - I was just about to type a comment asking when the PDF was out. Then noticed the big thing saying "pretty much now."

21 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Is the plan still to start PDF downloads on the 8th?

31 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Perfect. New York Jets fan, and Kentucky Alum.

32 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Definitely going to buy. I purchasd for the first time last year, and the book was great stuff. Loved the PDF option

35 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Soooooo.... I know there are already a bunch of combo deals, but is there any chance of just a book (or PDF) / Premium package for us non-fantasy folks? (Or does this request actually just make it official that I'm the only under-35 NFL fan who still doesn't play fantasy football?)

37 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I second this request. I buy the book but get no discount on premium and I still don't know what I get for paying for premium. As I result I don't know whether or not I'd think it was worthwhile. Convince me to spend my cash!

44 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I'll third that. I don't care about fantasy football, but would be interested in an FOA/Premium combo.

And just my luck... I'll be in the US just until before the book comes out in hardcopy... argh, international shipping from Amazon!

48 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

No, you're not the only one, because I turn 35 on Sat, and I have never played FF. Of course, as a pastor whose services get out at approx. 11:45 CT Sun. morning, it's kinda difficult to run from the church to the laptop to check any last-minute injuries/inactives for my FF team. I have played Loser League (not with much success, though). Although, does that mean I have played FF?

49 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Mine happens to be Sunday (though it's not my 35th) ... Happy (almost-) Birthday!

I don't know if I would count Loser League as fantasy football or not. On the one hand, many of the elements -- and the idea behind it -- are certainly from fantasy football. It's also run by whomever is writing the fantasy column for the site, and included in that column. But my understanding is that it's not particularly competitive, week-to-week roster management is minimal, and it's really a satire. So I guess I could be convinced either way...

76 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Another non-FFer here, but I am so old (45) I remember being taught to type on actual giant metal typewriters. Typewriter? What's that?

Anyway, Loser league is FF in my mind, of only because there is a chance you will watch a game and root for somethign to happen that is actually contrary to your favorite actual team's best interests. For some FFers, it's "I hope this guy gets 3 TDs even though he is on my team's arch-rival and I want them to lose" and for LLers, it's "I hope this guy has 12 carries for six yards and three fumbles, even though the team he is playing is my team's arch-rival and I want them to lose."

36 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Hm want a book copy so I can read on vacation. The 2007 one got me though my train rides to work...

39 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

A quick note: Some power outages in Houston have taken Sean McCall offline so we won't be able to put things on sale until the morning.

43 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I have purchased the Almanac or Prospectus each of the past two years. It's really the only football publication I buy every year. It has enough quality team information and fantasy/reality projection tools to be a must-have for the football enthusiast, fantasy football enthusiast, or both.

It would be nice if we could pay for the Book version and be allowed the .PDF version free (or at least a significant discount). I won't let my impatience cost me the extra 12 bucks or so again this year in buying the PDF only because the book is not out, yet. At least, that's the plan. ;)

46 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Soooo with the college football people getting their own 5 dollar pdf download... Can I get at a 7 dollar download without the college stuff?

Only half serious here. Don't care for college football but will pay for the book anyways. But it kinda makes me feel boned because the college people can get their stuff without paying for ours but as an NFL guy I gotta pay for the college stuff.

47 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

not relaly into reading about college football might looka t if bored . like NFL much more. Might even read Ciefs seciton

50 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Are there free copies given out to those who did game charting last season?

55 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Yes, depending on how much you did. I'll get to that list later today and e-mail people.

We don't offer a separate NFL version because there are something like 400 pages of NFL stuff and 75 of college stuff.

53 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

2 questions about the Jets chapter...

"The Jets had just lost a 10-7 heartbreaker to the Falcons, thanks to three failed field goals and three picks from rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez."

Is the 'thanks to' sarcasm or should it be 'due to'?

"a remarkable figure that had only been matched once all season over the course of an entire game"

By the same Jets or the whole league?

60 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Awesome. I just got a tablet PC, which is great for reading books like this (no, not an ipad. I need a keyboard sometimes). I think I'll be buying insider this year too.

61 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Kris Jenkins seems to be missing from the "Defensive Front Seven" chart.

62 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

KUBIAK and College Football Almanac are now for sale, and you can pre-order the PDF of the full FOA in the Football Outsiders store.

66 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I would like to formally go on record stating that Aaron Schatz is the man and FO rules.

69 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I have a question aaron. My dad is an avid college football fan and could care less reading about the nfl and im the exact opposite. Is there anyway i can purchase the almanac book for the 18th and still get the college football pdf now or is the early college read only for people pre-ordering the pdf? I would rather get the book but we might just settle for the pdf due to how much earlier he can get the college pdf.

70 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

"However, in order to allow package purchases, people who buy the regular FOA 2010 (or a package that includes the regular FOA 2010) will be able to download the college football material now, and then come back in a week to get the full FOA 2010."

65 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

KUBIAK questions will not be answered in standard discussion threads. Please send e-mail to mailbag-at-footballoutsiders.com.

(Late note: Didn't mean to sound so negative... If people send their initial questions into the mailbag, I'll do a KUBIAK mailbag article and try to answer them all at once.)

68 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Worst thing ever for productivity at work.

71 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

BY POPULAR DEMAND! We will also offer a new "Fantasy Football Haters Package" that includes just a year of Premium and a copy of FOA 2010 for $48.

This is awesome and thankyou for responding to demand but just one more little question, does this include a PDF download or will I have to wait for the book? Or is it just the PDF download and no book?

72 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

I will clarify one more time for those who have missed it when mentioned over the past week: We can't offer packages that include the printed book, because we don't sell the printed book. It is sold through either Createspace or Amazon, not our own store. All package deals include the PDF version of the book. Since our software doesn't talk to their software, package deals that included a printed book would require us to hire another full-time employee who could sit and process purchases, which in turn would require us to raise the price of the book to, I don't know, $500 or something. Not really worth it.

77 Typo in chart

There is a typo in the "2009 Jets Stats by Week" chart. In week 8, they played Miami not Minnesota. (Like any Jets fan can forget that game)...

78 Re: Typo in chart

In reply to by Roy G (not verified)

Thanks for the excellent catch, sir. That will be fixed in the final version.

79 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

How about posting FOA 2010 PDF file already!

81 Re: FOA 2010 Preview

Will buy book.
Not ineretsed in PDf, more rela live book fan. Like something to hold and flip through and rread. Old school