Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson

2021 Free Agency Preview: Offense

The free-agency period officially begins on March 17, and it's a weird one this year.

For only the second time since its introduction in 1994, the salary cap is going down, thanks to the effects of the ongoing pandemic. While the NFL is doing fine (see the television deals signed this year, with each network paying over $2 billion for the rights to show the NFL), not even a league as omnipresent as this one could entirely avoid feeling the effects of empty seats for most of 2020.

And so teams are having to tighten their belts to an extent we have never really seen before. Before this season, the record for worst financial situation entering the offseason belonged to the 2015 New Orleans Saints, which opened that year $23.3 million over the salary cap. But in 2021, three teams have broken that record, with the Saints ($69.5 million), Eagles ($43.0 million), and Rams ($34.0 million) all miles deep as the offseason began.  With two weeks to go before the league year began, a dozen teams were still over the cap, leading to a plethora of cuts and restructures, cuts and restructures that are still going on as we speak as teams struggle to get under the tighter cap for 2021.

The end result? We may see more free-agent movement than we have in quite a few years. As franchise tag values are based on pre-existing salaries, the reduced salary cap made it more difficult to tag players. With some teams massively over budget already, they had to let their veterans go, meaning the teams who do have cap space will have a wider pool of players to pick from. As always, the tippy-top of the potential free agency class is more likely to stay put, but we may see more movement than we have in years. That leads to an exciting offseason!

Today, we're looking at the best free agents available on the offensive side of the ball. We'll look at just why they're so much in demand, how much money they're likely to grab on the open market, and which teams would be the best fit by our reckoning. And, for those who lose out on the best player sweepstakes, we're also including the best alternatives available; the consolation prizes for those come up just short.


Quarterback

Best Available Player: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins

The jewel of the 2021 free agency class was Dak Prescott, but after a multi-year saga, the Cowboys finally locked up their quarterback to a long-term deal on Monday.  Without any franchise quarterbacks remaining on the market, teams are left to pick from a selection of journeymen.  Oh, but what a journeyman!

Ryan Fitzpatrick has had one of the oddest career arcs in NFL history.  He's been a seventh-round nobody, a high-priced free-agent bust, an injury replacement fan favorite, a bearded guru.  He has started for an NFL-record eight teams, and there's no reason to think he can't make it nine in 2021.  He's now had three of his top four seasons by DYAR in the last three years, so even at 38, he's shown he still has some gas in the tank.   He outplayed Tua Tagovailoa, his replacement in Miami; the move to swap quarterbacks certainly wasn't based on Fitzpatrick's performance this season.  No team wants to hook their future to an aging quarterback who tops out in the teens in passing DVOA, but plenty of teams could do a heck of a lot worse for a season or two than to dabble in some dark Fitzmagics.

Fitzpatrick's best attribute at this point in his career is grace under pressure, or at least the knowledge of what to do when everything breaks down in front of him.  Fitzpatrick led the league in 2020 with an 8.3% DVOA under pressure; he and Patrick Mahomes were the only two quarterbacks to have positive DVOAs with pass rushers breathing down their throats.  Being that good is somewhat of an outlier, but Fitzpatrick has been sharper than your average quarterback under fire for years now, generally hanging in the top 10 in DVOA difference with and without pressure.  Sacks are a quarterback stat, and Fitzpatrick generally has better-than-league-average sack numbers -- not a bad attribute to have for a team in the midst of rebuilding their offensive line.

How Much Will He Cost?

In recent seasons, premium backup quarterbacks have been going for about $8 million a season -- that was how much Nick Foles got in his restructure with the Bears, and Marcus Mariota was at about $8.8 million when he signed with the Raiders.  That's a floor for Fitzpatrick, who has shown he can still start at acceptable levels; he's not a re-tread or a rehabilitation project.  Currently, no quarterback in the league makes between $10 and $14 million a season, but that's the range that makes the most sense for Fitzpatrick.  Expect a one-year deal at the bottom of that range.

Best Destinations

The general consensus is that Trey Lance is the least pro-ready quarterback among the top picks in the 2021 draft, so whichever team ends up drafting Lance would have the biggest need for a one-year stopgap.  Recent mock drafts on NFL.com have had the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers end up with the North Dakota State passer; of the three, the Patriots would seem to have the biggest need for a temporary veteran, and we'll admit we'd love to see Fitzpatrick finish the AFC East quartet.  The Denver Broncos are another intriguing spot; they seem to be happy with Drew Lock as the starter for one more season, and Fitzpatrick would serve as a good mentor-slash-competitor there.

Alternatives

After Fitzpatrick, there are a smorgasbord of journeymen keeping the seat warm, reclamation projects and quality backups available; none who you'd really be excited about being under center in Week 1.  Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton are all likely to sign one- to two-year deals somewhere in the league.  They'd be an upgrade at QB2 for plenty of teams, but likely just temporary options for teams lacking quarterback direction if they're expected to start.


Running Back

Best Available Player: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

As a general rule, giving big contracts to running backs is a poor decision for teams. It's not that the Christian McCaffreys, Ezekiel Elliotts, and Alvin Kamaras of the world aren't more effective than your average replacement runner; it's just that paying the extra premiums to keep them rather than spend that cash elsewhere generally leads to bigger problems down the line, as we have seen with Todd Gurley's $57.5-million deal with the Rams, Le'Veon Bell's $52.5-million deal with the Jets, or David Johnson's $39-million deal with the Cardinals. All of those players left for pennies on the dollar before their deals expired. You have to be both fairly sure that the running back you're signing is going to be elite for years to come and have gobs of extra cap space to blow to really make a big deal to a running back at all worth it.

The question, then, is whether or not Aaron Jones is that sort of player. Jones has finished in the top 10 of both rushing DYAR and DVOA in each of the three seasons he has been eligible for the leaderboards; he's the only back who can make that claim over the last three years, and the first one to do that since Bell from 2014 to 2016. As a receiver, he adds volume—he's one of 13 backs to have over 1,000 receiving yards over the past three years—but not efficiency, as he has been at -5.0% receiving DVOA over the past two seasons. A consistently good runner who isn't a lead weight in the passing game is a useful player; Jones has been a great value for the Packers as a fifth-round pick. But when you sign Jones, you're not bringing Aaron Rodgers or the Green Bay offensive line along with him. If you're going to splurge on a running back this year, Jones is the one to go for. As always, however, caveat emptor.

How Much Will He Cost?

The aforementioned Elliot and Kamara deals, each for $15 million a year, represent the top of the free-agent market. The bottom for a top player such as Jones would be Dalvin Cook's five-year, $63-million extension. Jones will likely be closer to the top than the bottom, though the reduced salary cap probably means he won't set any new records.

Best Destinations

There aren't a lot of teams that have the combination of significant cap space, a need at the position, and proximity to contention to justify adding a top running back. The best choice is probably the Miami Dolphins, who were just 23rd in rushing DVOA last season. Myles Gaskin is fine, but Jones would likely be a significant upgrade. If we cross out "proximity to contention," Jones could fit in with the Jets, going from one LaFleur to another. The Chargers using him as their primary runner, with Austin Ekeler serving more as a receiver in the backfield, would be an interesting idea as well.

Alternatives

There's no one else out there, with the possible exception of Chris Carson, who is going to command a double-digit million-dollar contract. Mike Davis did enough replacing the injured McCaffrey to earn a spot somewhere. Le'Veon Bell won't be earning any record-breaking deals again as he has lost most of his explosiveness, but he still can be a valuable piece as part of a backfield committee. Kenyan Drake, James White, James Conner … there are plenty of decent running backs that can be acquired for a fraction of the price of Jones.


Outside Receivers

Best Available Players: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears and Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

(Ed. Note: Chicago informed Robinson he is getting the franchise tag on Tuesday.)

We're defining "outside" here as players who saw less than 60% of their targets come out of the slot/inside—or less than league average, in other words. Admittedly, both Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay are closer to 50/50 than a Mike Evans or Odell Beckham type who lives outside the hashmarks, but that's the reality of the free-agency picture in 2021.

Robinson saw 84 targets in the slot and 68 out wide in 2020, but that represented a significant swing away from his 104/55 split in 2019, and he was used mostly on the outside in Jacksonville. Since his sophomore season with the Jaguars in 2015, Robinson hasn't ranked inside the top 20 in either DYAR or DVOA at any point, often finishing closer to 50th than to first. Considering he has spent his career catching passes from Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky, however, Robinson's production has been outstanding—it's not at all hyperbole to call him one of the top 10 receivers in the league. Robinson has dropped just seven passes in his time in Chicago and has routinely caught between 80% and 90% of his catchable passes from Trubisky, per Sports Info Solutions' charting. Projecting what he could do with an even halfway capable quarterback is enticing, to say the least.

Golladay struggled to stay on the field in 2020, though his 90 DYAR in just five games would have placed him in the top 50. Healthy in 2019, Golladay ranked ninth in DYAR and 13th in DVOA, and his presence was sorely missed in Detroit this year. In their five games with Golladay in the lineup, the Lions passing DVOA jumped to 30.3%, compared to 10.4% without him. Golladay's the best deep-threat available this year; his 14.9-yard average depth of target would have been seventh-highest among qualified receivers in 2020, and he was at 15.4 in 2019. Teams looking for someone to make contested catches deep downfield could do far worse than signing Golladay.

How Much Will They Cost?

For a long-term deal, we're looking at the higher end of the same range for Godwin and Smith-Schuster. Robinson might crack the $20 million a year barrier, pointing to Michael Thomas' five-year, $100-million extension as a baseline, considering what he has managed to do with less-than-quality play around him. Golladay will be looking for the same sort of numbers, but his comparatively shorter track record combined with the salary cap dip this season may keep him falling just short of that amount.

Best Destinations

The Dolphins could use either player as their top receiver, giving everyone else easier assignments, and the Jets still have gobs of cap space and needs everywhere. But if you're looking for a team just a piece or two away from being at the tippy-top of the league, consider the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens attempted just 91 passes to receivers lined up wide in 2020, fewest in the league. Some of that is a product of their option-based offense, but you would ignore wideouts too if your options were Marquise Brown (-5.5% DVOA) and Miles Boykin (5.6% DVOA). Adding a deep threat slightly more dangerous than Willie Snead would close a gaping hole in the Baltimore offense, one that has reared its ugly head when the Ravens have had to try to come from behind in the postseason against Buffalo and Tennessee the last two years.

Alternatives

If you're signing Corey Davis, you're gambling heavily that 2020 was him finally figuring everything out, rather than a one-year mirage—before putting up a 22.4% DVOA this season, Davis' previous career high was 5.4% in 2019, and the former first-round pick had been written off as a bust before Arthur Smith's offense came to town. Still, it may be a safer gamble than picking up T.Y. Hilton, who will turn 32 next season as he transitions from a top threat to a reliable complementary piece. And it's certainly a safer gamble than picking up Antonio Brown, who provided significant value for the Buccaneers on their march to the Super Bowl, but who also brings with him several Pullman cars full of baggage.


Slot Receivers

Best Available Players: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers and Will Fuller, Houston Texans

(Ed. Note: Tampa Bay informed Godwin he is getting the franchise tag on Tuesday.)

There are enough quality receivers available this year that we're splitting them into outside and slot positions.  Some teams' needs are broad enough that they can go dipping their toes into either category and find an improvement, but it's 

Injuries kept Chris Godwin from repeating his 1,300-yard season from 2019 and held him out of the top 10 in DYAR. Don't think that it was a down season by any stretch of the imagination, however; Godwin still ranked fourth with a 28.0% DVOA and the Buccaneers, as a team, ranked seventh when targeting slot receivers in 2020. Some of that is due to quarterback play, of course, and Bruce Arians' offenses have always squeezed great performances out of their slot receivers, but Godwin is a budding superstar who may just have the best hands in the league; Sports Info Solutions has charted him with just eight drops in his four-year career for a drop rate of just 3.0%. Godwin has 682 receiving DYAR over the past two seasons, the most in the league; teams in on Godwin are buying high.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, on the other hand, is at more of a crossroads. His 109 targets out of the slot led the league, but the efficiency hasn't always been there to match the volume. JuJu led the league in DVOA as a rookie and was still hanging inside the top 20 in 2018, but he has put up negative numbers in each of the two years since. You can somewhat write off 2019 as a factor of catching passes from Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, and Smith-Schuster had a positive DVOA through Week 11 last year, just before Ben Roethsliberger's arm turned into a wet noodle, so it's not that there's no hope here. An excellent route-runner with good size, Smith-Schuster is still only 24 years old—younger than Calvin Ridley. Whether he remains as a coverage-beater in the slot or finally gets full-time usage outside is a big question for his next team, but either way, this is a potential buy-low opportunity.

And then there's Fuller.  Fuller's 2020 season was by a significant margin the best of his career -- he led all receivers in DVOA, topped 300 DYAR for the first time, and generally showed that he could produce outside of DeAndre Hopkins' shadow.  Even before this season, however, the Texans have been demonstratively better with Fuller's speed on the field than not; their passing DVOA shot up by over 25 percentage points in each of the last two seasons with Fuller on the field.  There's the rub, however -- we have a pretty decent sample size for splits with and without Fuller, as he's yet to play a full season.  Be it from a variety of leg injuries or the PED suspension that ended 2020 early, Fuller has never played 16 games in a season, and has missed at least five games in each of the past three years.  He won't play 16 games in 2021, either; he still has a week left of suspension to serve.  Fuller has now shown that he can absolutly be the focal man in an offense.  His next team hopes he can show an ability to stay on the field for an entire season.

How Much Will They Cost?

On their next deals, our trio of slot standouts will likely be hanging with Mr. Cooper. Receivers of this general quality tend to fall in the $15 million-to-$20 million a year range, with Cooper Kupp's three-year, $48-million extension serving as a floor and Amari Cooper's five-year, $100-million deal serving as a ceiling. Somewhere in the midpoint of that range feels about right, with Godwin likely earning $1 or $2 million more thanks to his superior performance over the last two seasons.

Best Destinations

The Buffalo Bills saw their offense jump to the next level when they added Stefon Diggs, allowing Cole Beasley and John Brown to slide down to second and third receivers and increasing everyone's effectiveness. Now, it may be time for their division rivals to do the same. The Miami Dolphins have a solid duo of DeVante Parker and Preston Williams (-4.7% and 10.6% DVOA in 2020), but neither of them is exactly a top threat. They also ranked 22nd when targeting slot receivers, a role that ended up mostly going to tight end Mike Gesicki. Bringing in either Godwin or Smith-Schuster would instantly bump every other pass-catcher on Miami down a rung on the depth chart, resulting in easier matchups and more options for Tua Tagovailoa to work with. It would also free up the third pick in the draft to be used on an offensive lineman or pass-rusher. That might be all Miami needs to pick up an extra win or two and be in the wild-card hunt in 2021. Other options might include the Raiders as an upgrade over free agent Nelson Agholor, or the Jets, who have oodles of cap space and needs all over the field.

Alternatives

There are plenty of other receivers out there who saw at least 60% of their 2020 targets come out of the slot.  Curtis Samuel set career highs with 95 DYAR, a 0.1% DVOA, and 851 receiving yards in his first year with Joe Brady; he may just need the right offensive scheme to produce. Marvin Jones is the cagey veteran of group, turning 31 this offseason. While his 2017 form is never coming back, Jones has been in the top 30 in DVOA in each of the past five seasons, and remains a solid complementary piece.


Tight End

Best Available Player: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers

The next time Hunter Henry plays a full season will be his first; the talented yet oft-injured tight end has yet to play all 16 games in a season. Up until 2020, the book on him was fairly clear—Henry was in the top 10 in DVOA every time he qualified for our main tables, a player oozing with potential who was just being held back by his laundry list of injuries. It's worth noting, however, that Henry's DVOA has fallen every time he has qualified, and 2020 saw it plummet to -2.9%, 28th in the league. It's tempting to chalk at least some of that up to L.A.'s quarterback change. Philip Rivers was more than happy to use his tight ends early and often, giving Henry plenty of work in the slot. It took Henry and Justin Herbert a little while to click together, with Henry only hitting double-digit DYAR in Week 15, just before he was shut down for the rest of the season on the COVID list. It seems unlikely that Henry will ever return to his 2016-2017 form, before the ACL tear and the tibia fracture. Still, it's fair to believe that last year's downturn was a product of circumstances rather than an ominous portent for years to come.

How Much Will He Cost?

While George Kittle and Travis Kelce have reset the tight end market, it would take an act of pure optimism to suggest Henry will end up in that stratosphere. A more reasonable comparison would be Austin Hooper's four-year, $42-million contract which briefly set the record for largest tight end signing in history. Henry would be the fourth $10-million tight end in NFL history.

Best Destinations

Carson Wentz always loved hooking up with Zach Ertz in Philadelphia. With Ertz not following Carson to the Crossroads of America, it would make sense for the Indianapolis Colts to hook their new quarterback up with a high-caliber pass-catching tight end such as Henry. Mo Alie-Cox was 11th last season with a 14.8% DVOA, and Jack Doyle wasn't all that far behind, but both players had fewer than 40 targets. Letting Doyle handle more of the in-line work while Henry is the primary pass-catching tight end sounds like a winning combination. Other options would include the Jaguars, who recently announced they would not be re-signing Tyler Eifert, or the Seahawks, as Greg Olsen has retired and Will Dissly didn't have the breakout season some were hoping for last year.

Alternatives

A pair of YAC-friendly move tight ends make up the tier below Henry, with both Jonnu Smith and Gerald Everett making regular appearances on our YAC+ leaderboards. Neither player has been a high-volume target yet; both set career highs with 60-odd targets apiece in 2020. Smith is coming off of the better season, though he had the advantage of working with Ryan Tannehill and not Jared Goff; he'll likely sign a larger deal than Everett will. Both have proven value as complementary pieces in an offense, and it will be interesting to see if anyone takes a chance on them being more than that on a new deal.


Offensive Tackles

Best Available Players: Trent Williams, San Francisco 49ers and Taylor Moton, Carolina Panthers

(Ed. Note: Carolina informed Moton he is getting the franchise tag on Tuesday.)

There's a fairly deep class of offensive linemen available this year, and they weren't all franchise tagged. A theoretical all-free-agent select could have 60% of their starting line be All-Pro and Pro Bowl veterans, with quality players throughout. It's not a bad time to have money to spend and gaping holes up front.

After taking a year off due to a contract dispute, Trent Williams immediately returned to his status as one of the elite tackles in all of football. Joining his old coordinator Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, Williams didn't just return to his Washington form; he arguably surpassed it. SIS charted him with 12 blown blocks, placing him firmly in the upper quartile of qualified tackles this season. Importantly for a team as dependent on the run game as San Francisco, he had just three blown blocks on rushing plays, and consistently paved ways to the second level and beyond. Don't think he's just a road-grader, either; ESPN ranked Williams fourth in pass block win rate. The 49ers have indicated they want to sign the soon-to-be 33-year-old to a long-term deal, but they may have missed their window to negotiate with him exclusively.

The other top tackle on the market is Taylor Moton, coming off arguably his best season to date. Always consistent, Moton set a career low with just 12 blown blocks. Williams has the better highlight reel and the flashier pedigree and is in general the better player, but Moton's calling card is an almost complete lack of negative plays. Moton drew just one flag in 2020 and only 10 in his four-year career. Last year, he allowed just two sacks and three opponent run stuffs per SIS charting. Rarely putting a foot wrong, you can watch hours of Panthers tape without ever hearing Moton's name called. When it comes to linemen, that's typically a good trait to have.

How Much Will They Cost?

Williams is the best free agent on the wrong side of 30, and he's going to get paid like it. By waiting a season before signing a long-term deal, Williams proved that he has what it takes to be a prime blindside protector, with all the financial accompaniments that brings with it. Because he is 33, he may end up falling just short of David Bakhtiari's four-year, $92-million extension from November, but that set the bar for Pro Bowl-caliber tackles. $20 million a year is not at all out of the question. Lacking the Pro Bowls and cache, and playing the traditionally less valuable right tackle slot, Moton will likely be a relative steal. Think more in the Trent Brown range; four years and $66 million. In 2019, that was enough to make Brown the highest-paid lineman in football. Now, he has fallen out of the top five.

Best Destinations

The Jaguars and Jets sit one-two in available cap space and will likely both have new franchise passers in 2021, and they will be looking for big bodies to help protect said franchise passers as well. But we could assign pretty much anyone to Jacksonville or New York without much effort. A more interesting option might be the Los Angeles Chargers, who finished 29th in adjusted line yards a season ago and 31st in ESPN's pass block win rate. They, too, have a franchise passer to protect, and Trey Pipkins is not the answer at left tackle. Squeezing Williams in under their salary cap is doable, if a little awkward, and he'd be an instant, massive upgrade at the position.

Alternatives

The $10 million-to-$15 million range has a variety of tackles available for teams without massive pocketbooks. Buffalo has a number of decisions to make with their free agents, and so Daryl Williams may be on the move; he only has two fully healthy seasons in the last four years, but they were both very good ones. And speaking of injured ex-Panthers, Russell Okung is also available. He has played just 13 games over the past two seasons, but has been firmly above average when available. Alejandro Villanueva isn't going to wow anyone, but a team looking for a veteran with a long history of consistent if not particularly astonishing play could do far worse.


Interior Linemen

Best Available Player: Joe Thuney, New England Patriots

The best guard entering free agency, Brandon Scherff, ended up receiving the franchise tag from Washington, so he's not going anywhere.  Joe Thuney, on the other hand, avoided that fate.  The Patriots tagged Thuney last season, and doing so again would have cost them $17.7 million, making him by far and away the highest-paid guard in football.  It's always difficult to tag a player in consecutive years, and it's worse on the interior of the line, as all five positions are grouped together in one bucket for the purposes of tag values.  New England likely wouldn't have tagged Thuney anyway, however; he was made somewhat expendable  by the emergence of Michael Onwenu. That means someone else will get the benefit of a guard who has yet to miss a game in his five-year career; one who has played at a Pro Bowl level even if he has never made the actual trip. Thuney has the reputation of being better against the run than the pass, and it's not entirely unwarranted, but he hasn't given up multiple sacks in a season since 2017, per SIS charting, and he has generally been trending positive over the course of his career dealing with troublesome rushers up front.

How Much Will He Cost?

Quite the pretty penny.  The current highest-paid guard is Brandon Brooks, who signed a four-year, $56.4-million extension in 2019.  Thuney is younger than Brooks was when he signed his deal; it's entirely within the realm of possibility that he could set the new high water mark, even with the salary cap declining this season.

Best Destinations

The Cincinnati Bengals ended up starting Michael Jordan and Alex Redmond at guard in 2020. They'd likely have been no worse off had that been the basketball player and Doctors character rather than their football-playing namesakes. 31st in adjusted line yards and 24th in adjusted sack rate, Cincinnati needs a massive overhaul of their protection if they don't want Joe Burrow to get hurt. Again. The usual suspects—the Jets, Dolphins, et cetera—would all be in the market as well, and don't count out the Cardinals looking to upgrade from J.R. Sweezy in free agency.

Alternatives

If you're specifically looking for a guard and you miss out on Thuney, you're out of luck; the guard class is thin. You'll be forced to wade into the second and even third waves of free agency, looking to find bargain deals on players such as Germain Ifedi or Matt Feiler. If a team is debating where to splurge to improve their line, better to spend the money on a top guard and find a second-tier tackle later on; the latter position is much deeper this year than the former. If you're looking for a center, Corey Linsley is dependable and likely available, considering the Packers' salary-cap situation.

Comments

33 comments, Last at 12 Mar 2021, 6:27pm

1 A couple points...

If Dak Prescott was the crown jewell of this year's FA class, then I'm going to another jeweler.  He's only proven to be average to good and highly dependent on his supporting cast.  You don't pay premium for that.  The Cowboys are paying like he's a Top 5 QB, which he clearly isnt.

Also, Alejandro Villanueva will have many suitors to choose from this off-season when he leaves the Steelers.  He's been consistently good for Pittsburgh and they're only letting him walk because they can't afford to sign him.  You saying he's not going to "wow" anyone is a bit smug considering the market and his level of play.  If you think he's just average, I would hate to hear what you think about the rest of Pittsburgh's line.

17 Heaven Forbid!

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

DaShaun Watson can also put up stats on a bad team.

Cowboys fans should get used to what the Texans experienced last year because Dak's contract will prevent them from improving the defense, which was their main problem.

I stand by what I said.  Dak isn't a Top 5 guy, which is what Dallas is paying for him.

There are many QB's I'd take over him for the same contract...

20 Deshaun Watson is also good...

In reply to by DIVISION

You can't be serious if you're blaming him for one out of three years his team didn't make the playoffs. 

You're gonna see him get passed up by Lamar and Allen and perhaps even Baker very soon. This is how the market works. He will not likely be the reason they can't compete. Keep screaming they can't build around him though.

26 We are on the same top boat, where is the GM critical analysis?

I am sold on your arguments with regards to top tier QB's.  You buy the boat. Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger---SOLD.  It costs a lot for the opportunity to live a life of luxury.  Now lets move toward good down toward mediocrity.

Prescott--Was off to the races again in 2020 then got hurt after a spectacular 2019.  After an excellent 2016, he dipped in 2017-2018.  You and most everyone else would have bought this boat sooner at a lower price.  At his worst he is a good QB, but he may be a great QB.

Watson has been a good QB, at this stage, but by good I mean good, he is grade B.  Can not judge him by the team's record.  The running game and defense were a train wreck in 2020.  By DVOA defense was 5th in 2018, 22nd in 2019, 30th in 2020.  Meanwhile the running game has moved from 28th to 17th to 32nd. I guess that Houston confused David Johnson with 2009 Chris Johnson of 2000 yards.  I do not think even that would be a good trade.  In my opinion, the non-QB players of Houston were the worst in football, even worse than Jacksonville and the Jets.

Now for the difficult to analyze trio, Lamar, Allen, Baker.

Lamar--FO outsiders metrics rate him as 2018-awful, 2019 great, 2020 mediocre, what do we have here?

Adding in 4 playoff games won't help his cause any.  A small sample size, but even smaller play. 

Allen--virtually everyone rates his 3 season as bad, bad, excellent.  There is great variance to his seasons.  What does that project out to?

I will finish with Baker.  Looking at his 3 season by DYAR/DVOA, he has been mediocre.  He actually regressed this year from year two (2020 16th DYAR/17th DVOA).  He is the most consistent of the trio over his 3 years.

So if he is extended 4 years beyond rookie, does Cleveland want these extra years of a mediocre QB?  If so, last year they could have had Teddy Bridgewater and this year they could sign Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Of course he is still on his rookie deal, so that there is no need to do this, my point is that if you think that your team can win a Wentz/Foles, Flacco, Eli Manning X 2 championship, won't there always be a mediocre QB available on the market? This is not a start over with the mystery box, it is a known proven mediocre QB. I do not want the QB on the cheap, but if all I have is mediocrity to begin with, what are my options?  Less expensive mediocrity or the mystery box?  Sign and hope he gets better?  Am I missing an option?

We buy the excellent boats, we discard the seriously flawed boats (Trubisky, Haskins, all Cleveland QB's before Baker, etc.), what do we do with the mediocre-upper mediocre class?  Then the good but not great?  Must we always pay more than the last guy, knowing our guy is not as good?

What Baker Mayfield season is there to love?  Will Lamar 2019 step forward, or Allen 2020?  GM's must make critical decisions.  I would wait a year on all 3, and risk a market rise.  I am a strong wait on Baker.

27 The stategy is the same

Team building goals are the same.

They know they have a good QB. Letting him go to save a few bucks winds you up with...Mac Jones at 10? Yikes. Tank for...who knows what? Hopefully not another Sam Darnold...or Mitch Trubisky or....oh but you can spend that extra money on free agents...because that's always successful too.

Team building strat is still, trading backing, buying low on vets, picking up street free agents instead of straight UFAs, spending and drafting important positions high, etc. This goes for every team. Take advantage of those that sway from it.

Just dont select a LB then RB high like Baltimore or you'll see regression hit when you trade away your TE and HOF G retires. 

16 "The Cowboys are paying like…

"The Cowboys are paying like he's a Top 5 QB, which he clearly isnt."

He may not be top 5, but "clearly isn't" is flatly wrong for a player who topped the league in DYAR last time he was healthy.

30 What??

Theres only about 28 other NFL teams that would disagree with you. .Clearly your not very qualified to analyze QB play...He's dependant on his supporting cast right? Can you tell me a Super Bowl QB who wasnt? And I guess you never watched CeeDee Lamb or Michael Gallup, let alone Amari Cooper.

2 Smith-Schuster fits

It seems like Smith-Schuster's best play came when he was playing opposite Antonio Brown. It's probably not some huge stretch to think that had something to do with the really excellent efficiency numbers he put up. It seems like he falls into the category of receivers that are excellent as a second banana, but not so much as the focal point of an offense. I think that's the kind of situation he should aim for - one where he can be a really excellent second option. Personally, I'd love to see him Green Bay, but the salary cap makes that unlikely. I'm not super familiar with the cap situations elsewhere, but Arizona and Tampa Bay seem like similarly good fits for him.

Also, we've probably seen enough of Chris Godwin to know that he's very good, but it'll be interesting to see where his efficiency numbers land without Mike Evans pulling defensive focus away.

7 Juju in GB would be great

but we indeed dont have the money.

In the two games Godwin has played and Evans ha missed he went for 5/10 for 68 on 69 snaps vs NYJ in 2017, then 5/8 for 121 on 46 snaps @ Det in 2019. I think he'll be fine (but they still have weapons).

18 ESPN...

...was pushing that Ju-Ju to Arizona angle.  I don't know.  I don't think they're going to tolerate the Tik-Tok type BS smokeshow that he was doing in Pittsburgh last year.

Keim looks at the locker-room when he signs players.  They don't want distractions.

Ju-Ju would do well in Arizona opposite WR#1 Nuk Hopkins.  The Bucs don't need Ju-Ju as they will have Godwin, AB and pretty much the rest of their guys back.

 

31 Dreaming

Yea too bad TB and GB have no salary cap space. Juju is going to want WR 1 money, and a team like the Jets or Jax would be wise to overpay him, give their young QBs a tough  big slot who is absolutely fearless over the middle..

3 I'd be surprised if the Jets…

I'd be surprised if the Jets signed a big name tackle; they have Becton, and George Fant wasn't that bad last year.  They will sign a guard and a center; I expect them to be all in on Thuney. 

4 Aaron Jones

First I would like to thank ImNewAroundTheseParts for an excellent and educational discussion regarding value, especially of QB's found in Four Downs, NFC West.

Now armed with data, and yes we agree it is a small sample size, a running back such as Aaron Jones will provide approximately 1 win over 4 years as compared with a replacement level running back.  This assumes that he is approximately the 6th best running back in the league over the FUTURE of his contract.  The price is TBD, but appears to be at least $40M for this win.

Lets see what Jones gets as a contract.

I loved the phrase used by Bryan in this article, caveat emptor.  I will call the signer of Aaron Jones a caviar eater.   Just like the person on a limited budget that eats caviar will find holes in his/her budget to survive, the Aaron Jones signer will miss out on other more valuable players over the years in a capped league.

I'll admit I had to look up caveat emptor (let the buyer beware).  I am getting an education beyond football on this site. 

Caveat emptor, caviar eater, both of these sound better than what I will call the GM on the day that he signs this guy, idiot du jour.

 

 

8 As much as I love Jones,

In reply to by jheidelberg

and contemplated the value of transition tagging him, ultimately the team made the right decision on the RB. Some team will pay him (probably Miami) handsomely (4 yrs, $58,470,544) for the hopefully the highest of comp picks.

I do look forward to see what Baker, Allen and Lamar get this offseason if they get anything (I'm only sold on Lamar though). 

9 I'll shop at the Dollar Store or Walmart for RB

You proved your point on QB's but at least let me shop at the discount store for a RB.  Your link shows Jones as the number 3 RB so maybe, going forward he can squeeze out 2 wins over a replacement RB over 4 years.  The comp pick will be NFL minimum wage, and may provide value.  The 50M+ in spare change, can get you a very nice player or group of players.  Since the standard is 2 wins over replacement over 4 years, this is a very low bar.

To best predict where Jones will end up we need the stupid GM combined with cap space, list those teams and you have the choices of a landing spot.  Although Bryan agrees with you, I think that Miami is too smart at this point.   His second choice, the Jets, well Joe Douglas has too short of a track record.  What better way to prove that you belong as a Jets GM than to make this signing.  The Chargers?   Maybe 2000 all purpose yard season with 3 fumbles lost at the one yard line.

 

10 If you're starter is leaving

like Lacy did the packers in 2017, you can find a couple goods ones on day 3. 

There's always at least one team that wants a big $ RB though. Miami might fall prey to "hey, we've got a lot of money to spend so...uhhhh...why not?" Because it's still a bad idea, Miami. Unless you can get out of it scott free after 2 years (they never do though). 

15 I think this all depends on…

I think this all depends on truly what kind of running back we're evaluating.  Certainly there are exceptions to the fungibility idea.  Running backs that can provide good value on 3 downs are worth giving more for.  Not every RB can do the things that Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara can do -- some truly are hard to replace, especially within the context of their offenses.

So the question is whether Jones fits in this category.  I think objectively, the Packers are a far better offense when Jones is in the backfield.  He is an above average weapon in the passing game, so there's no tip-off to the defense as to the play call.  He's also on the young side.  He's probably a top-6 RB, but he's not a transcendent player.  I don't think anybody's going to pay him 11 million a year avg, after seeing what happened to Bell, Gurley, Elliott, etc, but he should get offers in the neighborhood of 10. 

If I were Jones, but maintaining the ego that comes with being a non-star athlete, if the Packers are offering 4 years at 9+, which has been reported, I'd jump on it.  He'd have a great chance to earn the entire contract playing on an offense that makes great use of his skills, and probably moreso in the future as Rodgers declines physically.

 

22 Ehhhhh

RBs by nature just arent that capable. I'm leaving the door open (can you consistently beat press and run smooth routes with a good catch radius...wait I just described a WR/TE) for the possibility but even when CMC went down...the Panthers offense...improved? Yeah, they did. Or at least didn't get worse as random street FA Mike Davis filled in perfectly fine. And when Jones wasn't playing, Jamaal stepped in and did just fine. And the team is still over the cap right now without paying. I'd rather not go further in the hole at the expense of the another player like Dean Lowry (who might already be on the block) when DE depth is already thin. And we just (over)drafted a RB in the 2nd. He'll handle it fine as well. 

But I do bet he gets more than 11m AAV. Teams saw all that and still paid Cook, Kamara, Henry, CMC and Mixon last year. At LEAST one team always tricks themselves into it.

23 Good points all.  I would…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Good points all.  I would answer that while the Panthers offense was fine or improved when C McC went down (I'll take your word that this is true), there's a lot of variables -- did they change up their offense?  Was there enough of a sample size with a healthy McCaffery?  Was the offensive line the same?

I would also say that the Packers offense with Williams or Dillon playing full time, and not in a spot-start/breather capacity, the Packers offense would be significantly worse.  I have no empirical data to back this up, just my own eyes.

Neither of these things changes the question of whether or not Jones is worth re-signing.  I guess it comes down to what the number is, and where the money would be spent otherwise.

24 Lets look at the numbers

Weeks 1 & 2 (which they lost), they had .001 EPA/play (22nd). The 2 weeks immediately following his injury, .132 EPA/play (10th). That's HUGE. Well what about the entire time frame until he came back in week 9 (and lost)? .100 EPA/play (14th). 

The Panthers, like many teams that pay RBs, feel the need to force it to them to make it worthwhile. Unfortunately they just arent that efficient end up feeding the wrong guys. CMC was 15th/21 in Panthers Y/Tch. Now some of those only had 1 or 2 touches but the point is you spread the ball around more and usually to more efficient players like Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, DJ Moore and, heck, even Teddy was more efficient on the ground. 

Give Dillon (Jamaal is also a UFA) 1st team reps and I don't think you'd see much of a difference. At least not enough to invest all that money, even at $9m AAV (franchise tag was $8.655M). Maybe if he took his current contract, but that's silly. 

25 Fungibility idea

No doubt that you give McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara more.  But how much more?  With RB's, there is the inconsistency problem from year to year, the sudden decline problem and the I can not use him for too many carries a season problem. 

Here is an article that references Aaron Schatz a number of times written in 2012, has anything really changed since then?:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1271412-why-and-when-do-nfl-running-backs-start-to-decline

Like you, I started in the $10 million neighborhood a year for Aaron Jones for 4 years, which for me is way to high.  I pass if I am any of the 32 GM's. 

ImNewAroundTheseParts has shared a better proof source than our intuition at 4 years $58 million.  The $10M RB neighborhood is a neighborhood from which all NFL teams will soon be running away.  Analytics win out in the end.  

Of course if you trade David Johnson for DeAndre Hopkins, you have gotten value out of your running back.  

 

13 It can't happen obviously,…

In reply to by jheidelberg

It can't happen obviously, but his best fit is on the Bucs.

Maybe less unlikely... the Pats? They have cap space, a good line, and a passing game that will take years to fix. They have to win somehow, right?

32 I doubt it. Harris played…

I doubt it. Harris played really well last year, and Michel is still on a cheap rookie contract, so it’s more likely that they bring back James White or go scrounging in the bargain bin for a receiving back. 

19 You are getting an education, indeed.

In reply to by jheidelberg

I believe you were the same guy who said that "nobody" predicted the Bucs dominating the Chiefs in the SB when that was obviously not the case.

Start using your own mind to interpret the data and optics and stop relying on the talking heads...

My next prediction is that the Chiefs won't make it back this year, so I hope people stop with the "baby Goat" Mahomes references.

In regards to Aaron Jones, he's a RB and it's a fungible position.  If you're paying premium at that position, you're wasting money as many teams have found out (Cowboys come to mind).  Whomever signs Jones will overpay...

 

 

11 Trent Brown to the Patriots on a one-year deal

The Patriots traded a fifth-round pick to the Raiders for Trent Brown and a seventh-round pick in 2022.  Brown's contract with the Patriots is reported to be a one-year deal worth _up to_ $11 million with incentives. 

29 Meh.  The value to the…

Meh.  The value to the Raiders is getting rid of the contract.  The difference in value of the 5th to 7th round pick is mice nuts.  Especially to the Patriots.  Belichick is going to draft the same special teams player/NCAA lacrosse player in the 7th that he would have two rounds earlier.

33 Draft Capital

The maximum difference in draft capital on that trade is around 12 points. So if New England ends up sending the first pick in the fifth round to Las Vegas for the final pick in the seventh [note: not going to happen], the equivalent in total value is only roughly the 150th overall selection.

Onwenu was incredible last season as a rookie tackle, even though his natural position was guard. Now he can move back to the inside. Thuney is probably gone but this keeps some continuity. Cannon will retire or come back on a reworked contract.

Brown should be motivated as he hits the open market next year. And he's not going to cost more than six million or so against the cap. A lot of teams are going to be pressed by the lower salary cap and Belichick should be able to pac man up a few more good free agents at bargain prices.