Week 10 Staff Picks: Is Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year?

Philadelphia Eagles HC Nick Sirianni
Philadelphia Eagles HC Nick Sirianni
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 10 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei

Sometimes, gambling advice is objective—like in the NFL picks you get with FO+, for instance. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 9 plus a bonus question each week. This week's bonus question asks about favorite bets looks at Nick Sirianni and the other candidates for coach of the year.

Lines are taken from the consensus at Vegas Insider.

Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Cale Clinton: Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Green Bay Packers. There are 17 players on the Packers' injury report this week, including the team's leading rusher (Aaron Jones), the player with the second-most targets (Romeo Doubs), and the leading cornerback by snap count (Eric Stokes). This doesn't even include Rashan Gary, the team's sack leader, who tore his ACL last week. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers didn't practice Tuesday because of a thumb injury. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are fresh and ready to go off a bye. No stats, no trends, this is just a matter of manpower at this point. This feels like the game Green Bay could bottom out.

Bryan Knowles: Buffalo Bills (-3.5) over Minnesota Vikings. This line has dropped by more than a field goal with the uncertainty about Josh Allen's UCL. If it turns out Allen's fully healthy, this line is five or six points too low. If Allen's semi-healthy, he shouldn't be starting … but I still think Case Keenum shepherds the Bills to a fairly comfortable win over a Vikings team that is, by DVOA, a paper tiger.

Jackson Roberts: Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers has earned the respect, over the years, for this spread to remain under a touchdown. But there's no other logical basis for it at the moment. Not only has Green Bay lost five in a row, but their most promising young receiving target is out, their stud running back has a banged-up ankle, their best pass-rusher is done for the season … you get the point. The Pack's season has officially come unglued and Mike McCarthy would surely love to deliver a beatdown on his old stomping grounds.

Aaron Schatz: Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. DVOA has Tampa Bay as better than conventional wisdom and better than their 4-5 record, but we have Seattle even better than the Bucs. Seattle has been better this year on both offense and defense. The game in Munich gets rid of any Tampa Bay home-field advantage. The Bucs will have particular problems getting a pass rush on Geno Smith, as Seattle ranks fourth in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate while the Bucs are just 23rd in Pass Rush Win Rate.

Tom Strachan: New York Giants (-5.5) over Houston Texans. The Giants come into this one fresh off their bye week and with every reason to feel good about themselves. The Texans, however, are hurtling towards the high draft pick that they need to sort their quarterback position out, as well as another first-rounder courtesy of Cleveland, which should be used on addressing their poor defense that ranks 31st over the last three weeks. The Giants' three home wins have been by an average of 5.0 points but I like their chances to exceed that here.

Mike Tanier: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs. The Jaguars are awesome! No, they're garbage! No, they're just slightly better than the Raiders! The public is all over the place on them. I may err closer to "garbage" (the recycling bin next to the copier, perhaps), but I think they can hang with the Chiefs and at least back-door cover.

Vincent Verhei: Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) over Indianapolis Colts. Honestly, I can't believe casinos are still taking bets on this game. The Colts, at this point, are a dumpster fire that got into a trainwreck with a clown show. They are coached by a man who is not a coach who, in his first days after being hired, declared a) that he was "shocked" to have been offered the job; b) that he "may be terrible at this;" c) that he expected his offense to struggle just to get field goals; and d) that he was "drinking from a fire hydrant a little bit" as he was interviewing his new staff to name an offensive coordinator on Tuesday night. No, I do not expect this to go well.

Carl Yedor: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) over Arizona Cardinals. This line has shifted in Arizona's direction by 1.5 points since it opened, and while you should generally be mindful of major line movement in the opposite direction, I would have been comfortable with the Rams at -3 as well. The only above-average unit between these two teams is the Rams defense (yes, DeAndre Hopkins missed a bunch of time for Arizona's offense), and the Cardinals seem very poorly positioned to handle Aaron Donald in the middle. Give me the defending champs as they try to desperately salvage their season.

Upset of the Week

Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more (or at least, were when we wrote this).

Cale Clinton: Seattle Seahawks (+3) "at" Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Germany. The board for upsets is rough this week (although after this week's news cycle, Indy at +5.5 would be a hilarious one to at least write up). I like Seattle as the underdog here, though. The Buccaneers get bailed out by Tom Brady's late-game heroics against a weak (by DVOA standards) Rams pass defense. I don't think they have learned the necessary offensive play-calling lessons they'll need to learn in order to turn this team around. I think Tampa Bay comes back down to Earth one last time before they string together some victories and run away with the NFC South.

Bryan Knowles: Detroit Lions (+3) at Chicago Bears. My two favorite upset picks this week (Seattle and Pittsburgh) are both 2.5-point dogs, frustratingly, so they don't count. So let's go with Detroit. This line is moving towards Chicago as people fall over themselves to get on board the new-look Bears offense with Justin Fields actually being allowed to run. It's fun, sure, but the passing game is still problematic and the defense is gutted. I'll bet on people over-hyping Fields for one week, at any rate.

(Ed. Note: Seattle went from being a 1-point underdog on Monday morning to being a 3-point underdog on Wednesday night, while the Steelers are going the other way, from getting 3 points against the Saints to now getting only 1.5.)

Jackson Roberts: Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins. Would you have guessed that these are the two teams just outside the top 10 in DVOA right now? Cleveland is actually ahead of Miami at the moment due to the No. 5 offense (thanks, Nick Chubb!) and the Dolphins' 27th-ranked defense. Granted, they're seventh in stopping the rush, but that means they're an ugly 31st against the pass—and Amari Cooper has had a few big plays in him per game lately. I don't think the Browns are a playoff team, but I think they're capable of hanging with anyone when they're dictating the game's tempo.

Aaron Schatz: Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. See above!

Mike Tanier: Green Bay Packers (+5) over Dallas Cowboys. C'mon, don't act like this game doesn't feel like a Cowboys pratfall in the making to you. We're probably all keeping an eye on the Josh Allen situation, too, but I believe that the Bills can beat the Vikings in a Case Keenum Revenge Game.

Vincent Verhei: Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at San Francisco 49ers. There are tons of injuries on both sides here, so no sure thing. But I can't help but notice that the 49ers have been the NFL's worst pass defense over the last month, allowing Marcus Mariota, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford to collectively complete nearly three-quarters of their pass attempts for better than 9 yards per throw with six touchdowns and just one interception. (They had a bye in Week 9.) Oh, and their offense will be missing Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk.

Carl Yedor: Detroit Lions (+3) at Chicago Bears. I'm going back to the well on the Lions this week in part due to a lack of good options but also for similar matchup reasons. The Bears' run defense is not much better than that of Green Bay's, so Detroit can take a similar approach in trying to pull the upset here. Justin Fields has taken a major step forward in recent weeks, but can the Bears defense hold up?

Do You Have a Particular Player You Like to Put Up Really Strong Fantasy Points or Go Over His Betting Props This Week?

Jackson Roberts: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, ARI. Hopkins has caught touchdowns in each of his last two games and the Rams are allowing the second-most yards per game to WR1s. From what I'm told, yards plus touchdowns is something of an important formula in this whole fantasy football craze. I also needed an excuse to belittle the Rams this week, but the Cardinals are just so bad that I couldn't pick them as my upset.

Aaron Schatz: David Njoku, TE, CLE or Harrison Bryant, TE, CLE. Miami is 31st in DVOA against tight ends and this game is likely to be a high-scoring shootout where everybody is going to rack up the yardage. Just watch to see if Njoku is playing, as he didn't practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury. If not Njoku, there's value to be had with Harrison Bryant.

Tom Strachan: Derrick Henry, RB, TEN. Henry's rushing line is set at 104 currently, at that might be on the low side. The Broncos have the league's best pass defense in DVOA but rank 25th against the rush, playing right into the Titans' hands. Before the Broncos' bye week they allowed over 150 rushing yards and at least one touchdown in their previous two matchups. Henry rolls into this game on the back of two performances where he has combined for 334 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Vincent Verhei: Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG. Last week I went with "running back facing the Texans" and Miles Sanders rewarded me with 93 yards and a touchdown. Up next for Houston: Barkley, who enters the game already leading the NFC in rushing yards and likely to extend his lead.

Carl Yedor: Chris Olave, WR, NO. Olave is already one of the better young wide receivers in the league, and Pittsburgh's defense is better against the run than the pass. Olave should be the focal point of New Orleans' passing attack and as such be in a position to rack up volume for the sputtering Saints.

Bonus Question

Who do you think is the best value on the board for Coach of the Year, and should Nick Sirianni be such a heavy favorite right now?

Current consensus odds:

Nick Sirianni, PHI (-130)
Kevin O'Connell, MIN (+700)
Pete Carroll, SEA (+800)
Brian Daboll, NYG (+800)
Robert Saleh, NYJ (+850)
Mike McDaniel, MIA (+1200)
All others (+4000 or higher)

Cale Clinton: Pete Carroll, SEA (+800). It's Sirianni's to lose until the Eagles lose. I can't picture Philadelphia going 17-0, but I can't find an outright loss on their upcoming schedule, either. However, this really feels more like a "Howie Roseman Executive of the Year" team when getting down to brass tacks. I love the value on Carroll. Given the roster talent, the Seahawks have completely over-performed expectations this year, and they could very well go worst-to-first in the NFC West to add to Carroll's narrative.

Bryan Knowles: Mike McDaniel, MIA (+1200). Sirianni should be a heavy favorite because, well, the Eagles haven't lost a game this year. And until they do, you can't really justify voting for anyone else for coach of the year; we judge coaches by wins and losses, and if you never lose? Well, there you go. That being said, odds are still in favor of the Eagles losing at some point, so I'll pick McDaniel. I think the Dolphins will finish higher than the Jets in the division, the Vikings will come back to earth some, and the voters will want to vote for something shiny and new rather than Pete Carroll. That leaves Daboll or McDaniel, and McDaniel has the better odds.

Jackson Roberts: Pete Carroll, SEA (+800). I'd definitely vote for Sirianni right now, but betting negative odds at the halfway point in the season is not typically a sound strategy. If you forced me to bet this, I'd probably parlay Sirianni with the Eagles to go 17-0 (25-to-1 right now at Caesar's) and use the payout to buy the fanciest rotisserie chicken money can buy if it hits. Straight up, however, Carroll's value is the best of the group. Daboll and O'Connell have similarly attractive odds but I expect both their teams to regress in the second half, which hurts their respective cases even if they make the playoffs.

Aaron Schatz: Pete Carroll, SEA (+800). I do think that Sirianni is too strong a favorite right now because eventually the Eagles are going to lose a couple of games, and then you have to ask, are the Eagles the biggest surprise division champion? No, Minnesota and Seattle would be much greater surprises. I'm going with Carroll as the better value because Seattle has an easier remaining schedule and therefore could come out with a better record than the Vikings, and they had lower expectations going into the season. I'm still on Brian Daboll myself but I might end up being the only vote for him.

Tom Strachan: Pete Carroll, SEA (+800). I'm all in on the Seahawks and Pete Carroll for this award. Carroll dealt with the loss of a franchise quarterback and is laughing at everyone who thought the Seahawks were nailed for last place in their division. Carroll is getting the most out of players who aren't household names and has just enough elite players to keep this team competitive in most games. His only flaw might be his affinity for Drew Lock, whom he led us to believe could have been the starter.

Mike Tanier: Brian Daboll, NYG (+800). I'm rolling with Brian Daboll because half the voters will get Kevin O'Connell mixed up with Kevin Stefanski.

Vincent Verhei: Mike McDaniel, MIA (+1200). First, those odds for Sirianni are terrible. Do not place that bet. The Eagles are 27th in run defense DVOA, and in December they'll face a gauntlet of strong rushing teams in the Titans, Giants, Bears, and Cowboys, the latter three all on the road. Too many things can go wrong here. At these odds, I link I like McDaniel. Josh Allen's struggles and injuries have opened the door in the AFC East, and if anyone's going to pass Buffalo, I like the Dolphins more than the Jets.

Carl Yedor: Pete Carroll, SEA (+800). The best value definitely seems like Carroll here. With the supporting narrative behind Seattle (team trades star quarterback away, nobody believes in them, unexpected success), Carroll has a strong case for this award. That he has +800 odds while Sirianni is at -130 is a bit of a surprise to me. Yes, Sirianni is coaching an undefeated team, but the Eagles were frequently picked to win their division. Philadelphia is definitely better than just a run-of-the-mill division winner, but I don't think the Coach of the Year gap is truly that wide because the Eagles have to lose a game at some point, right?

Comments

6 comments, Last at 11 Nov 2022, 4:43pm

#1 by Noahrk // Nov 10, 2022 - 12:13pm

Before I read I just want to say it's a shame that -like Bryan's Thursdays article- the moment this article is published it's instantly or very quickly buried at the bottom of the page. Both would get a lot more engagement if they stayed near the top for at least a day, as they should.

Points: 0

#2 by Romodini // Nov 10, 2022 - 2:29pm

He's not the coach of the year, (should be Carroll or Daboll) but he's definitely the smuggest and most annoying since Pete Carroll.

Points: 0

#3 by Wuvan // Nov 10, 2022 - 3:55pm

To echo Noahrk's point, these staff picks are what I look forward to the most every week, and I kept refreshing the FO home page today waiting for them. Turns out they were published 10 hours ago and I just didn't see them until I scrolled down.

Points: 0

#4 by Jackson Roberts // Nov 10, 2022 - 6:51pm

Juicing it to the top of the page is beyond my realm of knowledge but I'm stoked to hear there are people who wait on this weekly! It's my favorite thing we're doing right now too

Points: 0

#5 by luisguilherme // Nov 11, 2022 - 8:19am

Question for next week: Roseman vs Schneider for executive of the year

One was able to make an undefeated squad with lots of talent without breaking the bank. The other fleeced the Broncos and found huge value in all rounds of the draft and free agency. 

Points: 0

Save 10%
& Support the Writers
Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers.