Seahawks Soar in FO's 2023 Free Agency Grades

NFL Offseason - If last year's NFL offseason was defined primarily by big-name players getting traded, this year's offseason has been defined primarily by big-name quarterbacks in limbo. Is Lamar Jackson going back to the Ravens, or will someone pony up a big contract and two first-round picks for a former MVP? When is Aaron Rodgers going to the Jets, and what are the Packers going to get in return? Who is the quarterback that the Carolina Panthers traded up to No. 1 for: C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, or (gasp) Anthony Richardson?

That's not to say there hasn't been plenty of movement from players at other positions this offseason. Derek Carr now quarterbacks the Saints, DJ Moore will be the No. 1 receiver for the Bears, Jalen Ramsey is in the Dolphins secondary, and Orlando Brown will be protecting Joe Burrow instead of Patrick Mahomes. Oh, and Tom Brady is gone. Maybe. Probably.

Here's our look at the 2022 offseason from Seattle (A) to Atlanta and Las Vegas (D+). Once again, Football Outsiders is grading the transactions so far, including not just signings but trades, re-signings, and franchise taggings. The "rubric" for these report cards is self-explanatory. Disclaimers about there being plenty of offseason left and the fact that it takes three to 30 years to evaluate any NFL decision are self-evident.

This year, we split up our transaction grades between four writers. Here's who took each division:

• Cale Clinton: AFC East, AFC North
• Bryan Knowles: AFC South, AFC West
• Aaron Schatz: NFC East, NFC North
• Vincent Verhei: NFC South, NFC West

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Improved Roster: C-
Used Resources Well: C
Coherent Plan: B-
Overall Grade: C-

Beginning on a positive note, the Bills did check off two of their biggest boxes for their offseason: bolster the offensive line and bring back Jordan Poyer. Buffalo signed former Cowboys guard Connor McGovern to a four-year contract, slotting him into Rodger Saffold's spot. McGovern is a slight upgrade in pass protection, but locking up the 25-year-old guard for four years is the real win for Josh Allen. Bringing back Poyer is a massive victory, especially considering Buffalo's lack of depth at the position and Micah Hyde's age. The Bills should have a strong pass defense in 2022 with the safety tandem reuniting and their young corners getting another year of experience.

Beyond that, the rest of the offseason has been lacking. Buffalo pulled off a handful of moves to free up cap space, re-negotiating deals with Allen, Von Miller, and Stefon Diggs and reaching an extension with Matt Milano. Beyond the Poyer and McGovern deals, the Bills have signed wide receivers Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty and running back Damien Harris. Harty received an All-Pro nod as a rookie for his special teams contributions, and Sherfield is coming off his highest-volume season yet, but each has just one season apiece with at least 30 receptions. Harris is a legitimate add, with back-to-back seasons top-10 in rushing DVOA and a fifth-best 175 rushing DYAR in 2021.

The Bills offseason just doesn't feel like enough, at this point, to get Buffalo over their back-to-back divisional round losses. Sherfield and Harty bring much-needed depth to the receiver room, but the Bills still lack that second real punch behind Stefon Diggs in the passing game. Landing Poyer is fantastic, but Buffalo will likely end up shedding some fantastic depth pieces in Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips after already losing Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears. The Bills have already pulled most of their easy cap-freeing strings, so any additional moves will come on the fringes.

Miami Dolphins

Improved Roster: B+
Used Resources Well: A-
Coherent Plan: A
Overall Grade: A-

Last season, the Dolphins went all-in on turning around their offense, beefing up their line and trading for Tyreek Hill to add to Mike McDaniel's high-flying scheme. This year, the Dolphins are taking the same approach on the defensive side of the ball.

Just like last year's splash trade for Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins gave Vic Fangio his own fun toy in the form of Jalen Ramsey. Landing a three-time All-Pro cornerback doesn't happen every day, and getting Ramsey for a third-round pick is an impeccable value. While he is coming off a sizable step back in coverage, Ramsey posted a career-high 18 passes defensed in 2022. In a much less celebrated move, linebacker David Long is a welcome addition to a Dolphins defense that finished 25 in run defense DVOA. According to Next Gen Stats, Long finished second among all linebackers (minimum 200 run snaps) with a 6.6% run stuff rate in 2022. The two combine to address some of the Dolphins' biggest defensive needs. Add in the Bradley Chubb trade-and-extension that took place at the trade deadline and Miami has quickly built one of the most talented starting defenses in the NFL, led by the coach who ushered in the defensive scheme that dominated the league last year.

Offensively, the Dolphins are basically staying pat with the group they have. Miami managed to re-sign all three of their free-agent running backs: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Myles Gaskin. Mostert and Wilson combined for 1,283 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in 2022, and the Dolphins finished 16th in rushing offense DVOA. Their biggest loss offensively comes in the form of Mike Gesicki, who had already been expected to walk after the season.

New England Patriots

Improved Roster: C+
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: B-
Overall Grade: B-

The Patriots entered the offseason with needs at wide receiver, tackle, and cornerback. After making signings at all three positions, the Patriots' biggest needs after the first wave of free agency are … still wide receiver, tackle, and cornerback.

That being said, New England has improved their offensive weapons. Despite Mike Gesicki's decreased role in 2022, he still posted higher receiving DYAR and DVOA than Jonnu Smith while also out-gaining Smith in receiving yards and catching five touchdowns to Smith's zero. JuJu Smith-Schuster actually placed one spot above Jakobi Meyers in both receiving DVOA and DYAR and is a much more effective scorer, with 29 career receiving touchdowns in six seasons to Meyers' eight in four . Both contracts represent massive value for New England as well. Gesicki's total contract value of $4.5 million is less than one-third of Smith's $15 million, according to OverTheCap. While Smith-Schuster and Meyers both signed deals for $11 million per year, Smith-Schuster has less guaranteed money with a lower cap hit in 2023. Neither is the No. 1 receiving option New England needs, however, improving their floor but not really changing their offensive outlook.

One of the biggest losses from New England's offseason comes in the retirement of safety Devin McCourty, but the remaining safety group of Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, and Jalen Mills (transitioning from cornerback) can provide a wide range of coverages and better disguise their assignments pre-snap. Despite re-signing cornerback Jonathan Jones after a breakout season, the Patriots still need a top-end cornerback to add to this secondary.

If one thing is certain, Bill Belichick will never finish last in special teams DVOA again. The Patriots retained special teams ace Matthew Slater and added Cody Davis while cutting punter Jake Bailey. In addition, New England signed former Lions linebacker Chris Board, whom Belichick described last season as "the best special teams player we'll play against all year."

New York Jets

Improved Roster: B-
Used Resources Well: Inc.
Coherent Plan: B
Overall Grade: Inc.

Let's start by addressing the elephant in the dark, dark room: until the quarterback situation is resolved, none of this means much. This was the offseason New York was going to go all-in on a veteran quarterback, but so far, nothing has materialized. Derek Carr made the Jets a preferred destination before accepting a deal with the Saints. Aaron Rodgers expressed his "intentions" to play for the Jets, but the Packers have yet to agree to trade compensation. The Jets have yet to make an effort to pursue Lamar Jackson, who received a non-exclusive franchise tag and can be had for two first-round picks and a fully guaranteed deal. The success of this offseason hinges on courting *somebody* to play quarterback. If the Rodgers deal falls through for whatever reason, things begin to look a lot more grim for New York.

Whoever is going to be throwing passes for the Jets will have a solid wide receiver corps to work with. Despite flipping Elijah Moore (and a third-round pick) for an a second-rounder, the Jets still have Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson and veteran Corey Davis, and they have added Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman. Lazard is Rodgers' favorite target not named Davante Adams and a good option for Nathaniel Hackett's offense regardless of whether Rodgers lands in New York. Lazard worked up to a full-time starter over three years while Hackett was an offensive coordinator; in 2021, Hackett's last season in Green Bay, Lazard posted a career-best ranking of fifth in receiving DVOA. Hardman also fits well into Hackett's West Coast, wide zone system. According to ESPN's Rich Cimini, since Hardman entered the league in 2019, only Deebo Samuel has a better rate of yards after catch per reception.

Defensively, the Jets have certainly found their core unit for 2023. New York re-signed Quincy Williams to pair alongside C.J. Mosley, securing the linebacker position. The Jets also landed safety Chuck Clark, who finished second on the Ravens in total snaps played in 2022. Clark is coming off a 100-tackle season while providing his second-best completion percentage allowed in coverage. He will likely serve as LaMarcus Joyner's replacement, playing alongside Jordan Whitehead.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Improved Roster: D+
Used Resources Well: C-
Coherent Plan: B-
Overall Grade: C-

It makes sense that Baltimore has spent the offseason exclusively re-signing its own players. There's nothing wrong with the Ravens wanting to run it back. Baltimore finished seventh in total DVOA with a top-10 defense and a third-best special teams unit. Their decision to let the market determine Lamar Jackson's value has, to this point, gone according to plan. Jackson has garnered little interest, at least publicly, from other teams. While other free-agent quarterbacks find new homes, Jackson is stuck with the Ravens until someone throws him an offer sheet.

The question is, is it worth it? The remaining receivers on Baltimore's roster combined for 66 receptions, 799 receiving yards, and five touchdowns in 2022. Mark Andrews is one of the league's best tight ends, but he may not be enough going forward. Since 2020, a tight end has led his team in receptions 12 times (including Andrews three times). Only four of those teams finished top-15 in offensive passing DVOA. Each of those teams (outside of the 2022 Chiefs) also had a wide receiver finish top-20 in DVOA. Since drafting Jackson, Baltimore has never had a receiver finish higher than 35th in receiving DVOA.

On top of receiving troubles, Baltimore is losing some significant contributors. Starting guard Ben Powers and starting safety Chuck Clark have already agreed to deals with other teams. A decent number of meaningful contributors to the defense last year—Marcus Peters, Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, Jason Pierre-Paul—remain free agents. With just over $7 million in cap space remaining according to OverTheCap, there is little room to make much material improvement.

Cincinnati Bengals

Improved Roster: C-
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: B
Overall Grade: B-

The Bengals were prepared for one of their safeties to walk, considering they drafted Dax Hill 31st overall in 2022. It just stings that the Bengals missed out on both. Jessie Bates came off a career year as a coverage safety, with a career-low 40.9% completion rate allowed and a career-high four interceptions. Vonn Bell posted career highs with nine tackles for loss and four interceptions. Now, both are playing elsewhere. Cincinnati's new safety, Nick Scott, is a competent in coverage and is coming off his most productive year, but 2022 was his first season as a full-time starter. The Bengals will be relying heavily on inexperienced safeties this season.

In terms of adding pieces, the Bengals have once again gone all-in on the offensive line. Cody Ford is coming off his best season by blown block rate, albeit in a heavily reduced role with the Cardinals, but the real star signing is former Chiefs offensive tackle Orlando Brown. Brown was reportedly offered a six-year, $139-million deal by the Chiefs heading into 2022, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Cincinnati just landed Brown on a four-year deal with less than half that reported value and $31 million in guaranteed money. Brown is coming off a year with 38 blown blocks—fifth-most among all linemen last year—and five sacks allowed.

Cleveland Browns

Improved Roster: B
Used Resources Well: B-
Coherent Plan: B+
Overall Grade: B

The offseason's plans were laid out after firing defensive coordinator Joe Woods in favor of Jim Schwartz, whose wide-9 scheme will be perfect for blitzing Myles Garrett off the edge. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, coming off a career-best 5.0 sacks with the Texans, is a younger, cheaper alternative to Jadeveon Clowney to run alongside Garrett. Signing Dalvin Tomlinson to a $57-million contract with $27.5 million in guarantees is a little rich, especially when he played less than half of Minnesota's defensive snaps in 2022. His production in those snaps was strong, though, accruing 5.0 sacks and 42 pressures over the last two seasons. Juan Thornhill is coming off career-highs in tackles, tackles for loss, and pass breakups.

Last year, Cleveland sent two fifth-rounders to and swapped sixth-rounders with the Cowboys for Amari Cooper, who went on to finish seventh in DYAR among receivers. This year, Cleveland landed former second-round pick Elijah Moore, sending a second-round pick to the New York Jets in exchange for Moore and a third. While Moore underperformed in two seasons with the Jets, that might not be on him. According to ESPN's Bill Barnwell, Moore averaged a 48.3% catch rate and 5.6 yards per target when catching passes from Zach Wilson. When catching passes from any other Jets quarterback, he averaged a 64.6% catch rate and 8.2 yards per target.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Improved Roster: B
Used Resources Well: B+
Coherent Plan: B+
Overall Grade: B+

The Steelers have been able to sub in their free-agency departures almost seamlessly. While cornerback Cameron Sutton heads to Detroit, the Steelers slide in Patrick Peterson, coming off a career resurgence with Minnesota. Pittsburgh landed former Commanders linebacker Cole Holcomb off a strong last two seasons (despite his 2022 being cut short by season-ending foot surgery) to replace Devin Bush. Former Dolphins linebacker Elandon Roberts slots in for Robert Spillane after his breakout campaign. With the core defensive personnel already in place, maintaining a strong supporting cast was a priority for Pittsburgh this offseason. Doing it for a combined 2023 cap hit of just under $5.5 million (per OverTheCap) is doing it with style points.

Pittsburgh also improved its offensive line, which has been on the rise since a dead-last finish in adjusted line yards in 2020. Isaac Seumalo was the biggest name among interior offensive linemen in free agency, finishing with a 1.6% blown block rate on the highest snap count of his career. He posted the sixth-best blown block rate among guards with at least 1,000 snaps. Nate Herbig provides some quality depth along the interior as well. The two join a line that, while ranking 10th in adjusted line yards, ranked only 21st when running up the middle.

AFC South

Houston Texans

Improved Roster: C
Used Resources Well: D
Coherent Plan: B+
Overall Grade: C+

Defensively, the Texans have made some strong moves this offseason. Jimmie Ward plugs in as a starter, likely at safety rather than slot corner. He has experience in new coach DeMeco Ryans' scheme and should provide a solid veteran presence in a promising but inexperienced secondary. Sheldon Rankins is a good signing too, though $10.5 million for a season is a bit on the pricy side for a run-stopper who struggled with injuries over the back half of the year.

It's hard to put the Texans too far above an average grade, however, because overpaying on short-term deals seemed to be their guiding light in free agency this year. Robert Woods for $7.6 million a year at age 31 and still not fully recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2021 season? While Woods theoretically fits well if Ryans is looking for blocking receivers for a 49ers-inspired scheme, it's hard to justify that cost when JuJu Smith-Schuster is going for just $8.5 million. They're also going to need to extend Shaq Mason, whom they acquired in a pick swap; keeping him for just one year at $8.5 million makes no sense for a team trying to dig itself out of the basement.

Houston also traded away Brandin Cooks for a few late-round picks, which would indicate punting on the upcoming season. They partially replaced him as a pass-catching option with Dalton Schultz, which, sure, rookie quarterbacks like tight ends. They also signed Laremy Tunsil to a massive extension, because rookie quarterbacks do not like being smashed into the turf ten thousand times; call that the David Carr rule.

The plan is clear: bring in some defenders who know Ryans' scheme like Ward and Rankins; bring in some offensive pieces like Woods, Mason, or Noah Brown so the new rookie quarterback isn't immediately thrown to the wolves. They had to overpay, because the Texans are not an exciting destination, and the lack of any long-term deals means that this class is mostly just biding time until we see how the mystery first-round passer will perform. Hard to give a team a high grade for what is likely to be a relatively non-impactful class, but some basic competence is a refreshing change for Houston.

Indianapolis Colts

Improved Roster: B
Used Resources Well: D
Coherent Plan: C
Overall Grade: C

The Colts paid how much for Matt Gay? A four-year, $22.5-million deal makes Gay the second-highest paid kicker of all time. Gay led kickers in our field goal/extra point value in 2022, but kicking value is notoriously inconsistent from year to year. For a franchise that is notorious for not making too much of a splash in free agency, doling that kind of cash out for a kicker is surprising. Not that there was a better kicker out there, or that Indianapolis didn't need one, but we're generally not fond of paying kickers who aren't Justin Tucker.

The only other major signing was Samson Ebukam, who set career highs in sacks, hurries, hits, knockdowns, and pressures, per SIS charting numbers. Like with Gay, the Colts definitely are paying a premium for a player coming off of a good year—three years, $24 million. And like with Gay, Ebukam does at least fill a position of need; he'll replace Yannick Ngakoue and should be a solid secondary pass-rusher. But if Ebukam slips from last year's highs, the contract is not going to age well.

Other than that, there's not much to write about here. Bringing back E.J. Speed as a special teams ace was a wise decision, and he looked solid enough when he was on defense replacing Shaquille Leonard. Gardner Minshew is fine as a veteran on the roster, assuming the Colts find a way to draft a quarterback in the first round. The little, solid deals do somewhat make up for throwing cash at a kicker—but it also means we can't give them anything higher than average.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Improved Roster: D
Used Resources Well: C-
Coherent Plan: B
Overall Grade: C-

The Jaguars did all their free agency moves last year. This year, they mostly sat out the first week of free agency entirely, their only real moves being re-signing Andrew Wingard, C.J. Beathard, and Roy Robinson-Harris. That's not exactly on par with throwing money at Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Brandon Scherff, and company from a year ago.

They did franchise-tag Evan Engram, which isn't nothing. Before arriving in Jacksonville, Engram had only had one season with positive receiving DVOA in his career, and he was arguably the least deserving Pro Bowler in 2020. Working with Trevor Lawrence in Doug Pederson's offense produced top-10 results, but it makes sense to tag him and see if that's reproduceable before signing him to a long-term deal. A year of Engram at $11.3 million is a lot to swallow, but better than committing long-term for a one-year mirage.

Other than that, though, it has been quiet. The Jags might try to find a bargain-bin cornerback in the second wave of free agency, but for the most part, they did their spending in 2022.

Tennessee Titans

Improved Roster: D
Used Resources Well: C-
Coherent Plan: B
Overall Grade: C-

Wait till next year! Tennessee does seem to have a coherent plan in place, and that plan appears to be waving the white flag in 2023 and gearing up for 2024.

It's hard to explain any other plan that saw four different offensive linemen walk out the door, releasing Taylor Lewan and Ben Jones, watching Nate Davis sign with Chicago, and leaving Dennis Daley unsigned. Robert Woods and Bud Dupree were salary cap casualties. DeMarcus Walker was let go. David Long signed elsewhere. These are not the moves of a team that looks to be making huge splashes immediately. In addition, it's not like Tennessee used that money to immediately make a huge splash—they haven't been huge spenders, instead nibbling on the margins of free agency and making low-risk moves, more or less just keeping the lights on. Titans fever; catch it!

Tennessee did make some moves to replace the lost linemen. Andre Dillard has a first-round pedigree but has been stuck behind the Eagles' stellar offensive line since 2019. Three years and $29 million is a lot to pay for someone with fewer than 100 snaps last season, though Dillard has been solid when we have seen him. New general manager Ran Carthon also raided his old 49ers team for players, bringing in Azeez Al-Shaair, Daniel Brunskill, and Arden Key. But these contracts are confusing—Al-Shaair has four void years on the back end of his deal, meaning he'll cost the Titans more cap money in 2024 off the team than he will in 2023 on it.

Overall, however, it feels like the Titans are gearing up for 2023 to be a transitional year and are avoiding making any huge splashes because of it. We can't give them a D because there is a coherent plan in place, but there's very little to be excited about here.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Improved Roster: A
Used Resources Well: C
Coherent Plan: A
Overall Grade: A-

Well, you can't say the Broncos didn't get better. They better have, after spending $235 million on new deals through Monday evening, $45 million more than any other team in the league. Sean Payton came in and asked his new owners to spend big, and spend big they did.

That includes two major additions in Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey, two much-needed adds for an offensive line that ranked 30th in adjusted sack rate and 20th in adjusted line yards in 2022. Did Denver pay too much for them? Probably—McGlinchey got $50 million guaranteed, putting him right among the top offensive linemen in the league in terms of guaranteed cash, while Powers is in the top five in total value among guards. But the Broncos are stuck in a difficult position—they need the Russell Wilson deal to work, or the franchise has basically torpedoed itself for the next three seasons. Whatever the cost, whatever it takes to make the deal work, they have to pay. Was it an efficient use of resources? No! Was it the best thing they could do to try to salvage what could be the biggest self-inflicted wound in NFL history? Yes.

Elsewhere, swapping Dre'Mont Jones for Zach Allen is a downgrade, but not a tremendous one. Allen comes along with new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, so there's a schematic fit here. Again, you could argue this is an overpay—Jones got $51.5 million for three years; Allen got $45.8 million. If you're going to pay that much for a tackle, you might as well go up to Jones' price, but Allen does appear to be an ascending player who set career highs in everything pass-rush-related last year. They also managed to re-sign Alex Singleton to a very reasonable deal, and bringing in Samaje Perine as coverage while Javonte Williams recovers from a torn ACL is a smart move too. The team that pays the most money in free agency doesn't always end up with the most improvement, but I generally prefer a team doing lots of things rather than sitting and twiddling their thumbs, and the Broncos have certainly done a lot of things.

Kansas City Chiefs

Improved Roster: C
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: A
Overall Grade: B

With Patrick Mahomes entering an expensive year on his deal, the Chiefs were never going to be big spenders in this market. Out go Orlando Brown, Andrew Wylie, and JuJu Smith-Schuster; there's no way to argue that the Chiefs got better offensively.

That being said, they didn't exactly stand still. While it's odd that the Chiefs paid Jawaan Taylor more than Cincinnati paid Brown, Taylor has become one of the better pass-blocking right tackles in the league. He has yet to miss a game and he's still very young. The Chiefs are gambling he'll still be strong on the left side, which is a gamble, but one that feels more reasonable coming from an organization like Kansas City.

The Chiefs also wisely allocated resources towards their defense rather than chasing after Smith-Schuster or Wylie—Mahomes can paper over a lot of offensive weaknesses, but you need bodies on defense. Charles Omenihu took a leap as an edge rusher last season and can line up anywhere in Kansas City's front. Drue Tranquill took a step forward as a coverage linebacker with the Chargers last season and should help boost a pass defense that ranked 28th against running backs and 20th against tight ends a year ago. None of these signings should spark a parade, but I suppose Kansas City just had one of those.

Las Vegas Raiders

Improved Roster: C-
Used Resources Well: D
Coherent Plan: D
Overall Grade: D+

Jimmy Garoppolo led the league in passing DVOA last season. Jimmy Garoppolo was in the perfect offense for him in San Francisco. He is not an ideal fit for a team that wants to throw it deep to Davante Adams all day long. Garoppolo will be better than the jokes at his expense would imply (assuming he stays healthy, which is always the wild card with Jimmy G, isn't it?), but it seems doubtful he'll provide more offensive juice than just keeping Derek Carr would have done. He's a lot cheaper, but he's still getting more guaranteed money than Geno Smith. Carr is the shadow that will cover every move the Raiders make this offseason, and it's hard to argue they have actually improved at the position in any meaningful way, or come up with such an incredible bargain at the position that the savings will pay dividends elsewhere.

Josh McDaniel brought in Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers and people are screaming about system fits. Yes, I suppose technically this is true; they have more experience working with McDaniel and therefore might fit better than Carr and Darren Waller would have. But Meyers also overlaps quite heavily with Hunter Renfrow as a slot receiver, so it's not an ideal fit. And trading away Waller, who excels over the middle, after trading for a quarterback who wants to throw short to his tight end? And replacing him with O.J. Howard? The logic escapes me.

There were some decent signings on defense in Marcus Epps and Robert Spillane, franchise-tagging Josh Jacobs made a lot of sense considering the running back market, and Garoppolo is a starting-caliber passer with a high floor, so this isn't an F-graded free agency period by any stretch of the imagination. But the big-ticket moves leave us scratching our heads.

Los Angeles Chargers

Improved Roster: C
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: B
Overall Grade: B-

Shhhh. If you make any noise, you might wake the Chargers up.

A year after gathering all the headlines with the Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson moves, and watching them amount to very little, the Chargers have been more sedate to this point. They signed Eric Kendricks! Eric Kendricks is still pretty good, though he's entering the downside of his career. He'll replace Drue Tranquill, and is a better run defender, so that's progress, I suppose.

Look, the Chargers were never going to be big spenders after locking up so much of their cash last offseason, and so this has been mostly treading water. They re-signed key hands like Trey Pipkins and Morgan Fox but have mostly just stayed out of the way. The Austin Ekeler situation bears monitoring, however; the disgruntled running back has been granted permission to seek a trade. If that trade does go through in a weak market for running backs, the Chargers' may not be getting an ideal return. So consider this grade very much pending at moment.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Improved Roster: B-
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: B+
Overall Grade: B

The best thing you can say about the Cowboys this offseason is that they have put together a coherent plan. If the players you want are not available on the free-agent market, make some trades. The Cowboys haven't really added any free agents, but they have added two big-name veterans in trades. Unfortunately, we have to ask if these players are going to be as good as the Cowboys hope they will be.

Let's start with cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who came from Indianapolis for a fifth-round pick and now has the Cowboys' sixth-highest cap number at $9.9 million. Mike Tanier was high on the Gilmore trade and it seems like a good fit, but I worry that Gilmore may not be better than the player he will replace, Anthony Brown. Brown was targeted more often than Gilmore last season, but they allowed similar yards per pass while Brown had a better success rate. Gilmore likely had the more difficult assignments, of course, but the age difference is also concerning.

Anthony Brown vs. Stephon Gilmore, 2022
Player	Team	Age	G	Tgt/G	Yd/Pass	Rk	Suc%	Rk
Anthony Brown	DAL	29	12	6.1	7.0	46	62%	12
Stephon Gilmore	IND	32	16	4.4	6.8	42	55%	42

(These ranks are among qualified cornerbacks based on both targets and games started, so ranks are different from those listed in the article linked above.)

In 2021, Brown was better than he was in 2022, coming out sixth in the league with a 65% success rate … although Gilmore was even better that year at 69% success rate for Carolina without enough targets or games started to be ranked.

I like the Brandin Cooks trade a little better. I really liked the idea of the Cowboys signing Odell Beckham as their new No. 2 receiver but clearly there's some hesitation around the league about either Beckham's health, his contract asks, or both. Cooks had the worst year of his career by DYAR in 2022 but still was able to put up positive value (44 DYAR, ranked 55th) despite the terrible quarterback situation in Houston. He did not do well in ESPN's new receiver ratings based on player tracking (73rd of 82 wide receivers), but he was better than the player he now bumps to No. 3, Michael Gallup (80th). The Cowboys also restructured Cooks' deal so he only has the No. 11 cap number on the team now at $6.0 million.

Signing Tony Pollard and cutting Ezekiel Elliott was also a good pair of moves. We can't judge the Cowboys' 2023 offseason on the Elliott contract from a couple years ago, and Pollard was clearly better than Elliott last season by pretty much every metric possible.

New York Giants

Improved Roster: B
Used Resources Well: B-
Coherent Plan: B
Overall Grade: B

The Giants' 2023 offseason started before free agency, so we need to grade them based on the Daniel Jones extension and the Saquon Barkley franchise tag as well as the players they signed once free agency started. The Jones contract makes some sense because the Giants didn't have a particularly good alternative. They weren't in position to draft a young quarterback, so giving Jones another couple of years to see whether Brian Daboll can continue to build on the 2022 improvement is sound. The contract is huge but has an out after two years, so the Giants are certainly not tied to Jones for life.

Barkley wasn't as good in 2022 as his highlights. He had 68 rushing DYAR in the first game of the season but only 40 the rest of the way, and he came out with negative receiving value, although that's not all his fault because he doesn't ask to be the safety valve on hopeless plays. Frankly, I would have rather seen the Giants go with one of the many cheap, serviceable backs on the market instead of giving Barkley $10 million this year, but it's better to give a good, young running back one year at a high franchise cost than it is to sign him to a big contract, so points for that.

I'm a bigger fan of what the Giants did once actual free agency started. The Darren Waller trade was a great way to fix a major hole on the offense. The linebackers were terrible last year, so Bobby Okereke made a ton of sense. Rakeem Nunez-Roches is a good player. I'm not a big Parris Campbell fan, but maybe Daboll can finally unlock his potential. Julian Love will be missed, and the Giants also lost their top two centers (Jon Feliciano and Nick Gates), so they'll need to draft one and/or see if Ben Bredeson can move over from guard.

Philadelphia Eagles

Improved Roster: D-
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: A-
Overall Grade: C

Kevin Cole, formerly of Pro Football Focus, keeps a tally of what he calls his Offseason Improvement Index over on his new Unexpected Points substack. He has the Eagles as the team with the biggest decline this offseason when you combine roster moves and upcoming draft value. And yet, I still think the Eagles went into this offseason with a coherent plan and made good moves. They were just stuck with a lot of free-agent talent and there was no way they could keep it all.

 

Biggest movement over the weekend on the @Unexpected_Pts Improvement Index is the Eagles falling further with the loss of C.J. Gardner-Johnsonhttps://t.co/BKNgYpOVuZ pic.twitter.com/GARKusSCag

— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) March 20, 2023

 

Let's talk first about who the Eagles kept. They managed to sign Darius Slay to a new extension when it was rumored that he would be a cap casualty. They re-signed James Bradberry, meaning both starting cornerbacks will return. They also re-signed some of their older but still useful players: Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, and Brandon Graham are all running it back.

They also lost a lot. But the Eagles have a plan and should be able to fill some of the departures with 2022 rookies. They were prepared for this. Jordan Davis moves into the starting lineup to replace Javon Hargrave at defensive tackle. Cam Jurgens, who is still Jason Kelce's heir apparent, can also play guard for a year to replace Isaac Seumalo. Nakobe Dean replaces either Kyzir White or T.J. Edwards. C.J. Gardner-Johnson's departure may be the biggest problem.

The Eagles haven't added many players. Rashaad Penny replaces Miles Sanders, which is nice if Penny can stay healthy because he has always had nice metrics. If. The Eagles are near the bottom of the league in cap space—technically they were still negative as of Tuesday -- so they probably won't be adding many players in late free agency either.

Washington Commanders

Improved Roster: B-
Used Resources Well: C-
Coherent Plan: C
Overall Grade: C+

When I start writing articles like this that go team by team, I paste in all the team names and then where I'm going to write text, I just enter the words "blah blah blah." I almost left that as a description of Washington's free agency moves.

Signing Daron Payne to a long-term contract off the franchise tag was a good move. He's not just a hog molly, he's a pass-rusher, ranking 12th last year among defensive tackles in ESPN's Pass Rush Win Rate. The other really good move was bringing in Jacoby Brissett as the failsafe backup behind Sam Howell. Brissett was really, really good for Cleveland last year. He ended up seventh in pass DVOA and 13th in pass DYAR. The problem is that it was by far his best year, and I don't know if you can trust him to be that good again. But he should be better than Howell and better than the veteran quarterbacks he replaces, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke.

Other moves are less exciting. Cody Barton is a one-for-one replacement for Cole Holcomb. I don't know if I trust how good Andrew Wylie can be away from Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, even if Eric Bienemy is his offensive coordinator. Cam Dantzler ranked 75th out of 80 qualifying cornerbacks last year in coverage success rate at 40%.

I'm docking the Commanders a little extra in "Used Resources Well" for not going after Lamar Jackson. Now that would have been a real improvement at the quarterback position.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Improved Roster: A
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: A
Overall Grade: A-

The Chicago Bears have pretty much won the offseason so far by acclimation. We can discuss the analytical idea that the Bears should have kept the No. 1 pick and used it on a quarterback, trading the loser of the Justin Fields-rookie battle for other draft picks. But they were never going to actually do this. On the list of what they actually would consider doing, "trade the No. 1 pick for a collection of picks plus the No. 1 receiver that Fields desperately needs to help develop his game" comes out about as high as any other possibility.

Then the Bears took their top-level cap space and brought in a number of useful players. The free-agent class is highlighted by linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds. DeMarcus Walker and Andrew Billings improve the defensive line. Nate Davis improves the offensive line. Robert Tonyan improves two-tight end sets. D'Onta Foreman was hugely underrated with Carolina last year, finishing sixth in the NFL in Next Gen Stats' Rushing Yards Over Expected per carry.

My one point of contention with Chicago's offseason moves is position value. They spent money on two off-ball linebackers but didn't improve themselves in the secondary or at edge rusher. They have used a lot of draft capital on defensive backs, so the one position that really needs improvement is just nickelback, but right now the starting edge rushers are Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson, two recent fifth-round picks. It wasn't a good free-agent class for edge rushers, but I still wonder about ignoring that spot.

Detroit Lions

Improved Roster: B+
Used Resources Well: B+
Coherent Plan: A
Overall Grade: B+

The Lions went into the offseason with a clear goal: add defense. I am a little surprised they didn't end up with an older veteran to be a locker room leader, but I can't argue too much with the younger players they added. Cameron Sutton had a fantastic career year in Pittsburgh last season, with a 69% success rate in coverage (second) and 5.0 yards allowed per pass (eighth). He should still be plenty good for Detroit. I'm less sold on Emmanuel Moseley, but he also cost a good deal less than Sutton. I'm very sold on C.J Gardner-Johnson, who can be a nickelback or stud safety depending on what Detroit needs on any given play.

I have also always felt Graham Glasgow is a little underrated, so that's a nice depth add for the offensive line. I don't get too excited about running back changes, so the main thrust of replacing Jamaal Williams with David Montgomery is that SNF introductions and touchdown celebrations won't be quite as fun.

The Lions still have a good amount of cap space and they may not be done in free agency. Perhaps they'll bring in that veteran to play edge rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson. Yannick Ngakoue perhaps? Justin Houston?

Green Bay Packers

Improved Roster: D
Used Resources Well: Inc.
Coherent Plan: C
Overall Grade: Inc.

I am a patient boy.

I wait, I wait, I wait, I wait.

My time, water down a drain.

Everybody's moving, everybody's moving, everybody's moving moving moving moving.

Please don't leave me to remain

In the waiting room.

Minnesota Vikings

Improved Roster: C-
Used Resources Well: C-
Coherent Plan: C
Overall Grade: C-

The Vikings are near the bottom of the league in cap space so they couldn't do much. They even had to shed veteran salary. Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen, and Cameron Dantzler were cut. Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson were allowed to leave.

Minnesota did bring in some new players, however. There are some surprises. They were the team to take the shot at Marcus Davenport, the most talented edge rusher in this year's free-agent class. He's coming off a big down year, so it's interesting to see the Vikings sign him to a one-year, $13-million prove-it deal going into what looks like a rebuilding year for the team. Byron Murphy is a fairly average starting cornerback but should be an upgrade over the aging Peterson. Dean Lowry from the Packers was a good value at $4.3 million. The weird signing was tight end Josh Oliver. The Vikings are giving $7 million per year to a No. 2 tight end who has never had a receiving season with positive DYAR. And it's peanuts, but another weird spend: the Vikings made Andrew DePaola the highest-paid long-snapper of all-time at $1.3 million per year (since surpassed by New England's Joe Cardona).

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Improved Roster: B-
Used Resources Well: D-
Coherent Plan: D
Overall Grade: D+

For years, the Falcons were playing with one hand financially tied behind their backs, hamstrung by massive contracts for Julio Jones and Matt Ryan. Finally free and clear from those sunk costs, Atlanta is third in effective cap space, and with that cash they have done … um, what have they done exactly? Well, they signed a stud safety in Cincinnati's Jessie Bates III, and added three more potential starting defenders in Carolina cornerback Mike Hughes and a pair of ex-Saints: lineman David Onyemata and linebacker Kaden Ellis. They also found a pair of weapons for Desmond Ridder in wideout Mack Hollins and tight end Jonnu Smith, who played for Arthur Smith in Tennessee and should allow Kyle Pitts to do less blocking and more receiving. Finally, they signed ex-Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke to back up (compete with?) Ridder.

That's all fine, and the Falcons are better on paper than they were at the end of 2022, but it's also underwhelming. Teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts—especially third-round rookie contracts—are supposed to go on spending sprees. Was Mack Hollins really the best wide receiver they could find? There was no way to upgrade an offensive line that ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate? And how is it possible that a defensive front that has ranked last in ASR for two years in a row hasn't added a single edge rusher? The NFC South is there for the taking, but the Falcons don't seem particularly interested.

Carolina Panthers

Improved Roster: B
Used Resources Well: B
Coherent Plan: A+
Overall Grade: B+

In three years since they released Cam Newton in 2020, the Panthers have made bargain-bin investments in Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and then Newton again. The results: in that timeframe, the Panthers are the NFL's only team to throw more interceptions (50) than touchdowns (46). In that light, trading up with Chicago for the first pick in the draft makes this offseason a success no matter what else happened. At least now they'll have a focus, a fixture to build around.

In the short term, free agency brought new starters at quarterback (Andy Dalton, Saints), running back (Miles Sanders, Eagles), wideout (Adam Thielen, Vikings), tight end (Hayden Hurst, Bengals), defensive line (DeShawn Williams, Broncos, and Shy Tuttle, Saints), and safety (Vonn Bell, Bengals), but it also cost them versatile defensive back Myles Hartfield. Most importantly, they lost DJ Moore, their only good wideout, in the Bears trade. A receiver corps of Terrace Marshall, Shi Smith, Laviska Shenault, and Grandpa Thielen won't be much help to Darnold, Bryce Young, or C.J. Stroud.

New Orleans Saints

Improved Roster: C
Used Resources Well: C-
Coherent Plan: C-
Overall Grade: C-

Derek Carr is four years younger than Andy Dalton and has usually been a better passer by DVOA (though that wasn't the case last season). He's an upgrade, but a small one, and as Jason Fitzgerald points out at Over The Cap, it's a short-term fix; Carr's contract basically guarantees him $70 million over two years, at which point the Saints may find themselves shopping for a quarterback again.

In the meantime, New Orleans has lost five top players from its defensive front: linebacker Kaden Ellis, edge rusher Marcus Davenport, and interior linemen David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, and Marcus Davenport. The incoming replacements (Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd, a pair of backup tackles from the Chiefs and Jets) won't do much to fill the void. On paper this looks like another year of the Saints treading water and struggling to reach .500, but that may make them favorites in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Improved Roster: F
Used Resources Well: C+
Coherent Plan: A
Overall Grade: C

Seventy.
Five.
Million.
Dollars.
In.
Dead.
Money.

That's the area in which the Buccaneers find themselves after Tom Brady's retirement. (It's actually $74,566,702 if you want to get pedantic.) That's nearly $20 million more than the next-highest team (Philadelphia), and about $12 million more than the Falcons had last year after trading Matt Ryan. Brady alone accounts for over $35 million of that sum, a total matched by only four other teams this season. Donovan Smith, Lavonte David, Leonard Fournette, Akiem Hicks, and Shaq Mason are also each contributing at least $4 million—more as individuals than the Dolphins, Chargers, or Bengals have in total.

With nearly one-third of their cap space devoted to players who won't be on the roster this fall, the Bucs have been unable to retain key defenders such as safety Mike Edwards, lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, all of whom signed elsewhere after their contracts expired. They were able to retain star corner Jamel Dean, their best young player, but they added barely any talent, bringing in Baker Mayfield and Chase Edmonds for relative pennies. The failing grade for improving the roster is self-explanatory, but their other grades are better because they found a way to re-sign Dean and take a cheap flier on Mayfield, and their plan is obvious: reminisce about the 2020 Lombardi Trophy, yank off the financial Band-Aid, and prepare for 2024.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Improved Roster: D
Used Resources Well: B-
Coherent Plan: C-
Overall Grade: C-

It's not easy to take a roster that lost 13 games last season and make it worse in free agency, but that's what the Cardinals have done. Top cornerback Byron Murphy signed with the Vikings. J.J. Watt (retired) and Zach Allen (Broncos), who finished first and second on the team in sacks, are both gone. Other starters (including guard Justin Pugh and linebacker Markus Golden) remain unsigned. Meanwhile, the Cards have only added a handful of free agents, including just one expected starter: ex-Eagles linebacker Kyzir White.

Multiple questions remain. What does the White acquisition mean for former first-round picks Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins? Is DeAndre Hopkins still on the trading block? And if so, is there still a wide receiver market? Who will quarterback this team while Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy are sidelined with injuries—injuries that may keep them shelved into the regular season?

The only reason the Cards' overall grade isn't lower is that they still have the third overall draft pick, and that they have been very frugal. The 15 free agents they have signed (most of whom were already in Arizona last year) got less than $20 million in guaranteed money between them. That's over $10 million less than Allen got from the Broncos. This reveals the true goal of new general manager Monti Ossenfort this season: add a superstar rookie while cleaning up the mess he inherited from Steve Keim and wiping the slate clean for 2024.

Los Angeles Rams

Improved Roster: D-
Used Resources Well: C+
Coherent Plan: C+
Overall Grade: C-

The Rams had nine players who were on the field for at least half of their defensive snaps in 2022. Only two—Aaron Donald and Ernest Jones—remain under contract. The others are in Miami (Jalen Ramsey), Cincinnati (Nick Scott), or remain unsigned. The only veteran L.A. has added in that time: Hunter Long, a blocking tight end (one catch in 16 NFL games) picked up as part of the Ramsey trade.

It's hard to overstate just how heavy a price the Rams paid for their Super Bowl championship. They only have 44 players under contract, nine fewer than any other team. They are among the six worst teams in both effective cap space and dead money (the trio of Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd, and Ramsey are taking up over $46 million in salary cap space to not play for L.A. this season). And though they currently have 11 picks in April's draft, none are in the first round, while eight are in the fifth or later. We're giving them a little credit for the Ramsey trade, which gets them cheaper and younger in a rebuilding year, and the Super Bowl they won. But given their circumstances, they really had no choice but to shed aging talent and start over.

San Francisco 49ers

Improved Roster: C-
Used Resources Well: A+
Coherent Plan: A+
Overall Grade: B+

The 49ers had a lot of roster churn, losing a dozen players (most notably right tackle Mike McGlinchey, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and edge rushers Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam) in free agency. But they also took Javon Hargrave, the top interior lineman on the market, away from Philadelphia, the team that beat them in the NFC Championship Game. And they added Atlanta's Isaiah Oliver and Carolina's Myles Hartsfield to the defensive backfield; Carolina's Sam Darnold to fill Garoppolo's veteran QB role at a fraction of the cost; and Clelin Ferrell, a bust with the Raiders who may benefit from playing on the opposite end from Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. They also managed to re-sign several of their own free agents, including starters at center (Jake Brendel), safety (Tashaun Gipson), and third receiver (Jauan Jennings).

In the short term, that's probably a slight downgrade in overall talent. In the long term, however, Over The Cap is currently projecting five compensatory draft picks for San Francisco in 2024 due to free-agent departures (and the hirings of DeMeco Ryans and Ran Carthon by other teams). That's on top of the seven (!) compensatory picks they'll get this year. General manager John Lynch has mastered the art of stockpiling picks while trading away higher selections for Trey Lance and Christian McCaffrey. That should keep the 49ers stocked with young talent even as they prepare for another deep playoff run.

Seattle Seahawks

Improved Roster: B+
Used Resources Well: A++
Coherent Plan: A
Overall Grade: A

Step 1 for Pete Carroll and John Schneider: Re-sign Geno Smith to an impossibly team-friendly deal. Smith's three-year contract includes over $27 million dollars in guarantees, but his cap hit in 2023 is only $10.1 million. That's lower than Mitchell Trubisky's in Pittsburgh and barely higher than Zach Wilson's with the Jets. Smith can earn a lot more by hitting performance-based incentives, but if he turns back into a pumpkin, the Seahawks can easily get out of the deal in 2024.

Step 2: Take the money they saved on Smith and invest in their interior defense like they never have before. Multi-purpose lineman Dre'Mont Jones got $51.5 million over three years, a $17.1-million average that is the highest the Seahawks have ever paid for an outside free agent (though less than half that money is guaranteed). They also brought lineman Jarran Reed back from Green Bay, added linebacker Devin Bush from Pittsburgh, and signed former Giants defensive back Julian Love, who can contribute right away at safety or nickelback. (And they still had enough cash to upgrade at center, taking Evan Brown away from Detroit.) The release of defensive tackle Al Woods was a bit of a head-scratcher, but Seattle could use one of their 10 draft picks to replace him, perhaps with Georgia's Jalen Carter fifth overall.