Start All Your Vikings Against Helpless Lions

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook
Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 5 - At least for Week 5, October does not bring with it any major weather concerns. But it does bring the first of this year's two trips to London. Neither this week's Jets-Falcons game nor next week's Jaguars-Dolphins contest includes a bevy of appealing fantasy options. But at least this one deserves some attention since it will cost the Jets and Falcons players an opportunity to play in a dome in Atlanta. Tottenham Stadium is open to the elements.

The following tables feature the players with the best and worst matchups of the week. Each listed player shows a true-talent (TT) ranking that represents how I would rank him with a perfectly neutral game context. Then, that ranking is adjusted by adding the context of the venue (Ven)—home and road and dome and outside—the forecasted weather (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The line beneath those rankings shows how much those contextual factors move projected PPR fantasy points. That total (Tot) number gives you a comprehensive estimate of how many fantasy points the player will score this week more or less than his typical total.

You can see our full weekly projections with projected stats, matchup adjustments and fantasy points by subscribing to FO+.


Best Week 5 Matchups - Quarterbacks
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
K.Cousins MIN 1 DET Rk 18 11 11 7  
Pts   +1.5 0.0 +2.4 +3.9
D.Carr LV 1 CHI Rk 20 13 13 10  
Pts   +1.4 0.0 +1.1 +2.5
J.Goff DET 0 MIN Rk 18 12 12 12  
Pts   +1.4 0.0 +0.8 +2.2
K.Murray ARI 1 SF Rk 2 1 1 1  
Pts   +1.6 0.0 +0.5 +2.1
D.Prescott DAL 1 NYG Rk 7 4 4 4  
Pts   +1.6 0.0 +0.2 +1.8

Just when I put myself out there with a tweet about how Kirk Cousins is top-five in passing touchdowns since Justin Jefferson became a starter in Week 3 last season, he crushed my spirits with 203 passing yards, one touchdown, and a pick in Week 4 against the Browns. This is probably how Mike Zimmer feels half the time. My optimism for Cousins last week hinged on a home game in the dome in Minnesota, where even after a stinker he has averaged 0.2 more fantasy points per game than on the road in recent seasons. But in hindsight, the Browns defense may be one to fear as a fantasy opponent, and not just for Justin Fields and the Bears. With my opponent factors shifting the bulk of their weight to 2021 results versus preseason projections, the Browns look like a 6% cutter of pass plays per game and an 8% cutter of yards per pass attempt. DVOA ranks their defense third-best. As such, I'm confident enough to go back to the Cousins well with a top-10 expectation fueled by a plus matchup with Detroit. The Lions haven't bucked any expectations this year. They are 31st in defensive DVOA and boost opponent passing yards and touchdowns by 50% and 53% per attempt, both top-four in football.

Derek Carr has only just added a shiny new home dome stadium in Las Vegas, but you might be surprised to hear that he has enjoyed a dramatically bigger homefield advantage than Cousins in recent seasons wherever that home may be. His home/road split of 2.6 fantasy points per game is eighth-biggest among current starters. The Raiders had fans on Monday night in Los Angeles, but I still can't say I'm surprised he upended the three-week narrative that he has turned a corner in his eighth professional season. Like Cousins, I rank Carr as a mid-tier QB2 in true talent. He is a shallow-league streaming option, and I think this is a decent week to deploy him. The Bears had better expectations for their defense, but they have increased passing yards and touchdowns by 16% and 32% per attempt, respectively.

Best DraftKings Values: Derek Carr ($700 underpriced at $6,100), Daniel Jones ($700 underpriced at $6,000), Justin Herbert ($500 underpriced at $7,300)

Best FanDuel Values: Derek Carr ($800 underpriced at $7,100), Kirk Cousins ($500 underpriced at $7,500), Justin Herbert ($500 underpriced at $7,700)

I wasn't sure how the daily platforms would react to Carr's loss on Monday night, and they may not have been sure how to react either. FanDuel dropped his salary from $7,400 last week to $7,100 this week, but DraftKings increased it from $5,900 to $6,100. Either way, I think those salaries are too low for the combined projected benefits of the home dome and a plus Bears opponent. His salaries rank just 15th and 19th at the position, but I view him as a back-end QB1 this week.

Justin Herbert draws the Browns defense that I just explained has started to scare me in fantasy. But I'm so confident in Herbert that I view him through the Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen lens of matchup immunity. With their cutting of pass plays and passing yardage, the Browns project to cost Herbert 0.4 fantasy points this week. But I think the home dome start should more than counterbalance that, even if the same did little for Cousins last week. And I think it's clear from previous daily underpricings that I just feel better about Herbert than the public in general. He's my No. 6 true talent quarterback, and so even a decent defense shouldn't push him to 10th and 11th in pricing at the position. Keep starting him until the platforms catch up.

Worst Week 5 Matchups - Quarterbacks
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
P.Mahomes KC 1 BUF Rk 1 2 2 8  
Pts   -0.7 0.0 -2.9 -3.6
A.Rodgers GB 0 CIN Rk 10 14 14 18  
Pts   -0.7 0.0 -1.0 -1.7
R.Wilson SEA 1 LAR Rk 9 9 9 14  
Pts   -0.6 0.0 -1.1 -1.7
T.Heinicke WAS 1 NO Rk 13 18 18 20  
Pts   -0.6 +0.1 -0.7 -1.2
T.Brady TB 1 MIA Rk 7 9 9 12  
Pts   -0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.8

Patrick Mahomes has consistently defied the matchup trends be they home and road, with weather, and with defensive opponents. But he may face the most difficult test of the latter variety he ever has this weekend. The Bills are the No. 1 DVOA defense with a bullet. They are the third-best defense through the quarter mark of a season in the DVOA era. Frankly, I don't think any defense can reasonably expect to hand Mahomes a bad game. But I'm also more comfortable with his fall from first in true talent to eighth at the position this week. With players such as Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott entering the elite class of fantasy quarterbacks, you have a bunch of compelling options with cheaper DFS prices. Start Mahomes in your traditional formats, but look for better values at the position in DraftKings and FanDuel.

Worst DraftKings Values: Patrick Mahomes ($1,200 overpriced at $8,200), Aaron Rodgers ($1,100 overpriced at $7,100), Ryan Tannehill ($200 overpriced at $6,400)

Worst FanDuel Values: Tom Brady ($800 overpriced at $8,400), Aaron Rodgers ($800 overpriced at $8,000), Patrick Mahomes ($700 overpriced at $8,700)

I'd feel better about the Bengals' ranking in the top six in defensive DVOA if they hadn't allowed 6.2 yards per play at home to the Jaguars last Thursday night. Cincinnati's standout September defensive performances came against the Bears and Steelers, both ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive DVOA this year. The Packers will test whether the Bengals are a true cutter of passing yards and touchdowns by a projected 13% and 45% per attempt. But just because I'm uncertain doesn't mean I'd want to deploy Aaron Rodgers in daily formats with top-eight salaries. To my thinking, there are too many exceptional quarterbacks to choose one without a clear plus matchup or obvious underpricing. If you want to spend up at the position, go with Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, or Dak Prescott this week.

Running Backs

Best Week 5 Matchups - Running Backs
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
D.Cook MIN 1 DET Rk 1 1 1 1  
Pts   +0.2 0.0 +3.1 +3.3
D.Williams CHI 0 LV Rk 8 8 8 5  
Pts   +0.3 0.0 +0.8 +1.1
J.Taylor IND 0 BAL Rk 14 14 14 10  
Pts   -0.1 0.0 +1.1 +1.0
Z.Moss BUF 0 KC Rk 29 30 30 25  
Pts   -0.2 0.0 +1.2 +1.0
D.Harris NE 0 HOU Rk 35 34 33 29  
Pts   +0.1 0.0 +0.6 +0.7

The Lions are a plus matchup for Kirk Cousins, but they are an even better one for Dalvin Cook. The divisional rival boosts rushing yards and touchdowns by 13% and 107% per attempt, respectively. Those are eighth- and third-most in football. But critically too, they boost opponent run plays by 11% per game. Cousins faces some risk that the Vikings could build a big lead and turn to the run to kill clock in the second half. The only concern I have for Cook is the ankle injury that sidelined him in Week 3 and limited him to a 49% snap share in Week 4. Cook told reporters this week that he is confident he can play through his return to 100%, and so I expect his typical performance standard a week out from his soft return to action. $8,400 and $9,000 daily salaries aren't exactly cheap, but they are down several hundred dollars from Cook's Week 1 prices and make him a compelling building block for tournaments in an excellent matchup.

Damien Harris likely lost a lot of fantasy players' confidence with 10 yards on 10 carries combined the last two weeks. But those letdown performances came against the Saints and Buccaneers, last year's top two run defenses by DVOA. The Texans should be a dramatically easier test. They increase run plays by 6% per game and increase rushing yards and touchdowns by 20% and 8% per attempt. Meanwhile, Harris ran a career high 17 pass routes in his first game with teammate James White out for the season. Even a modest increase in his receiving usage could reinsert Harris into the flex conversation in PPR formats. With the plus matchup, I rank him 29th this week in the format.

Best DraftKings Values: Dalvin Cook ($2,400 underpriced at $8,400), Damien Williams ($1,600 underpriced at $5,600), Samaje Perine ($1,300 underpriced at $4,000)

Best FanDuel Values: Damien Williams ($1,700 underpriced at $5,800), Dalvin Cook ($800 underpriced at $9,000), Samaje Perine ($400 underpriced at $5,600)

Damien Williams was out of sight, out of mind after he opted out of the 2020 season for COVID concerns. But in 2019, he was top-10 among backs with 100-plus carries with 3.0 yards after contact per attempt and a 10.8% avoided tackle rate—including the postseason, when he added 133 total yards and two touchdowns for the champion Chiefs. With David Montgomery sidelined a month or more with a knee injury, I'm all in, at least until Tarik Cohen can return from the PUP list. This week, I expect Williams to dominate the Bears backfield in touches, and he should benefit from a matchup with the Raiders who increase rushing yards and touchdowns by 11% and 61%, the latter of which is the sixth-highest rate in football. Those factors make Williams a top-five running back at just top-35 DFS prices.

The Bengals backup running back situation is a bit murkier. Veteran Samaje Perine has out-snapped the sixth-round rookie Chris Evans 44 to nine this season, but Perine is a one-dimensional bulldozer and may not contribute the receiving work that has buoyed injured starter Joe Mixon on a bottom three offense for power rushing success. It's a risk even assuming Mixon can't play, but at just $4,000 and $5,600 in DraftKings and FanDuel, I think Perine is one worth taking. The Packers cut rushing yards and touchdowns by 6% and 13% per attempt, but being at home should help the Bengals remain competitive and maintain a run-pass balance. And with top cover corner Jaire Alexander poised to miss the game with a shoulder injury, Joe Burrow and his trio of excellent receivers should move the ball and afford Perine some scoring chances in the red zone.

Worst Week 5 Matchups - Running Backs
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
N.Harris PIT 1 DEN Rk 6 6 6 13  
Pts   -0.1 0.0 -2.1 -2.2
A.Ekeler LAC 1 CLE Rk 3 3 3 4  
Pts   +0.1 0.0 -1.4 -1.3
M.Gaskin MIA 0 TB Rk 26 26 26 32  
Pts   -0.1 0.0 -0.9 -1.0
M.Gordon DEN 0 PIT Rk 20 20 20 22  
Pts   -0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.9
M.Sanders PHI 0 CAR Rk 23 23 23 26  
Pts   -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.7

Still just two weeks removed from a 19-target outburst, Najee Harris won't necessarily suffer in fantasy against a Broncos opponent that cuts rushing yards and touchdowns by 22% and 45% per attempt. But I'll need an encore performance to convince me that outlier target total wasn't the result of injuries to wide receiver teammates Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Those players should both see plenty of action this week even if deep target Chase Claypool remains a question mark with his hamstring injury. And while Harris' fall from sixth in true talent to 13th in my weekly running back rankings won't have you bench him in traditional formats, I would avoid him in DFS, where his $6,900 and $7,300 salaries are a few hundred too high for my expectations for him.

Worst DraftKings Values: Tony Pollard ($600 overpriced at $5,600), Najee Harris ($400 overpriced at $6,900), James Conner ($400 overpriced at $5,600)

Worst FanDuel Values: Aaron Jones ($900 overpriced at $8,400), Najee Harris ($500 overpriced at $7,300), Kenyan Drake ($400 overpriced at $5,700)

Tony Pollard is the anti-Harris. With a 42.7% rushing and a 53.9% receiving DVOA, Pollard can fairly call himself the most efficient back in football this season. But that efficiency has not moved the needle of his playing time. He has peaked at a 38% offensive snap share in four games. Ezekiel Elliott will likely continue to see the bulk of the Cowboys' backfield time and most of the power work near the end zone. Pollard has just 0.8 expected rushing plus receiving touchdowns this season compared to 3.9 for Elliott. That role does not justify Pollard's $5,600 DraftKings salary.

Kenyan Drake may not have to worry about Peyton Barber for a few weeks as the latter back deals with turf toe, but with Josh Jacobs back in the lineup, I don't think that matters. In Weeks 1 and 4 when Jacobs played, Drake saw a meager 17.5% carry share. This is not the workload split many expected after Drake signed an $11-million free-agent contract in the offseason. I wouldn't start him with a still-high $5,700 salary in FanDuel.

Wide Receivers

Best Week 5 Matchups - Wide Receivers
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
J.Jefferson MIN 1 DET Rk 13 8 8 4  
Pts   +1.3 0.0 +1.1 +2.4
H.Renfrow LV 1 CHI Rk 35 26 26 19  
Pts   +1.0 0.0 +1.0 +2.0
A.Thielen MIN 1 DET Rk 26 22 22 17  
Pts   +1.2 0.0 +0.7 +1.9
C.Davis NYJ 0 ATL Rk 43 38 38 34  
Pts   +0.8 0.0 +1.0 +1.8
M.Williams LAC 1 CLE Rk 19 12 12 10  
Pts   +1.3 0.0 +0.3 +1.6

Justin Jefferson had a quick ascent to unquestioned every-week fantasy starter. But if Adam Thielen has you nervous for his modest totals of 39, 50, and 46 receiving yards the last three weeks, don't be. Thielen's four touchdowns in as many weeks are not a fluke. Despite his smaller stature at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, Thielen is fifth at his position with 11.1 expected touchdowns since the start of last season. Kirk Cousins relies on him in the red zone, and the two will likely connect this week against a Lions defense that increases touchdowns per target by 43% for No. 2 receivers. Thielen in my top 20 at the position this week.

Slot receiver Jamison Crowder returned from a groin injury to pace the Jets receivers with nine targets in Week 4. I could see that trend continuing, especially with an undermatched Jets team likely to fall behind in games and rookie quarterback Zach Wilson needing check-down and quick-open receivers to escape pressure. But this week, the Jets stand a better chance facing a Falcons team in London that is one of the two worse than them in overall DVOA. Meanwhile, the Falcons are a particular boon to No. 1 receivers, increasing their yards and touchdowns by 13% and 188%, respectively. As such, I have Corey Davis as a back-end flex option as my 34th wide receiver this week.

Best DraftKings Values: Hunter Renfrow ($1,200 underpriced at $4,900), Laviska Shenault ($900 underpriced at $4,800), Brandin Cooks ($700 underpriced at $6,100)

Best FanDuel Values: Hunter Renfrow ($900 underpriced at $5,800), Brandin Cooks ($700 underpriced at $6,300), Laviska Shenault ($600 underpriced at $5,800)

As a 24-year-old in his rookie season and at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds, Hunter Renfrow may have entered the NFL touching his ceiling. His 8.5, 8.5, and now 8.3 yards-per-target rates in his three seasons are certainly similar enough. But Renfrow has made a modest jump up my true talent receiver rankings to 35th thanks to an increase to 7.5 targets per game. And he's an excellent streaming and DFS choice this week at home against the Bears. Domes increase slot receiver yards and touchdowns per target by 8% and 13%, and the Bears increase them further at 22% and 81%, both third-most in football.

Neither Laviska Shenault nor Brandin Cooks shares Renfrow's matchup benefits. But I think both receivers are underpriced in both of the DFS platforms, I assume because of my differing expectations for their target volumes. Shenault has already hit seven targets in his three healthy games this season, but he could be due for an increase from there with receiver teammate DJ Chark fracturing his ankle. Meanwhile, Cooks leads all receivers with a 36.8% target share. His five catches and 47 yards from last week in a 40-point shutout in Buffalo seems like the worst-case scenario for his fantasy production. And after trading Stephon Gilmore to the Panthers this week, the Patriots won't have an elite cover corner like the Bills do in Tre'Davious White. White allowed just 6.8 yards per target shadowing mostly No. 1 receivers in 2020.

Worst Week 5 Matchups - Wide Receivers
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
T.Hill KC 1 BUF Rk 2 2 2 6  
Pts   -0.4 0.0 -2.1 -2.5
D.Johnson PIT 1 DEN Rk 7 12 12 16  
Pts   -0.5 0.0 -0.6 -1.1
C.Godwin TB 1 MIA Rk 14 20 20 24  
Pts   -0.5 0.0 -0.6 -1.1
D.Metcalf SEA 1 LAR Rk 12 16 17 18  
Pts   -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.9
M.Pittman IND 0 BAL Rk 35 37 37 42  
Pts   -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8

Tyreek Hill may be taunting me with by far the biggest projected point drop a week after he went for 186 yards and three touchdowns in Philadelphia. He does draw the aforementioned White in coverage, but Hill bested him for 172 yards when he last saw him in the AFC title game last winter and is likely more immune to matchups than his fall from second in true talent to sixth in my weekly receiver rankings would suggest.

If I were to bench a top tier receiver in fantasy this week—or at least steer clear of him in DFS—it would be DK Metcalf. He draws to my mind the tougher cornerback shadow in Jalen Ramsey tonight. Ramsey allowed a miniscule 4.7 yards per target last season and kept Metcalf in relative check in a pair of 2020 regular season matchups with 28 and 59 yards before Metcalf rebounded with 96 yards and two touchdowns in a losing playoff effort. That latter outburst is the reason you never bench your stars, but I have Metcalf squarely in WR2 range at 18th with the tough matchup this week and don't like him in daily formats.

Worst DraftKings Values: DeAndre Hopkins ($1,500 overpriced at $7,600), Allen Robinson ($700 overpriced at $5,500), DK Metcalf ($700 overpriced at $7,000)

Worst FanDuel Values: Chris Godwin ($1,000 overpriced at $7,600), DeAndre Hopkins ($800 overpriced at $7,500), DK Metcalf ($600 overpriced at $7,400)

I have built my pessimism for DeAndre Hopkins in a couple of his starts this season on Kyler Murray's extreme career home/road splits. But with the Cardinals back at home for a 49ers matchup, I have to say I'm still somewhat pessimistic. As A.J. Green and Rondale Moore have injected new life into the Cardinals' passing game, Murray has not had to rely on Hopkins as much as he did in 2020. In fact, Hopkins ranks just 44th at his position with a 19.5% target share through four weeks. I expect that to rebound a bit, but that positive regression may not return Hopkins to the standard that has him as the fifth- and 12th-most expensive wide receiver in DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Tight Ends

Best Week 5 Matchups - Tight Ends
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
T.Conklin MIN 1 DET Rk 17 15 15 13  
Pts   +0.2 0.0 +0.9 +1.1
D.Schultz DAL 1 NYG Rk 6 5 5 5  
Pts   +0.4 0.0 +0.5 +0.9
M.Gesicki MIA 0 TB Rk 4 4 4 4  
Pts   +0.2 0.0 +0.6 +0.8
A.Firkser TEN 0 JAX Rk 21 20 20 18  
Pts   +0.1 0.0 +0.6 +0.7
J.Cook LAC 1 CLE Rk 12 12 12 11  
Pts   +0.4 0.0 +0.1 +0.5

It's probably a lot more surprising to see Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki with their sixth- and fourth-place true talent rankings than it is to see them at the top of the matchup gainer list in a given week. But those less heralded tight ends rank first and third at the position with 32.0% and 25.0% target shares the last two weeks. I expect Schultz to remain in that top 10 picture. As scouting expert Derrik Klassen explained on the Football Outsiders Fantasy Show, Schultz offers Dak Prescott an underneath target option that he doesn't have in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, or Blake Jarwin for all their broader talent.

Gesicki may have a shorter runway. His 21.0% target share with Jacoby Brissett under center is dramatically better than his 6.5% one with Tua Tagovailoa, who is poised to return from his rib injury in Week 6. Start Gesicki in traditional and daily formats this week while the value is there to capture.

Best DraftKings Values: Ricky Seals-Jones ($500 underpriced at $2,500), Jared Cook ($400 underpriced at $3,600), Mike Gesicki ($400 underpriced at $4,200)

Best FanDuel Values: Mike Gesicki ($400 underpriced at $5,600), Jared Cook ($400 underpriced at $5,200), Jonnu Smith ($400 underpriced at $4,900)

Logan Thomas lasted just five snaps in Week 4 before he suffered a hamstring injury that has him now on injured reserve. Washington since added former Packers tight end Jace Sternberger to help fill the void, but don't be misled by what may be a bigger name. Ricky Seals-Jones jumped from a snap share under 20% in the first three weeks to a 93% share last week and saw four targets. He should be the major Thomas beneficiary for the next handful of weeks. And while that may not make him a viable option for shallower traditional leagues, Seals-Jones is a decent choice to fill out an otherwise expensive DraftKings lineup at the positional minimum of $2,500.

If you want to spend a bit more money at the position, I recommend Chargers tight end Jared Cook. Cook had a Week 2 touchdown nullified by an illegal shift penalty, but he is still tied for 11th at the position with 1.2 expected touchdowns this year. Cook is a decent bet to score this week facing a Browns defense that is limiting of other skill positions, but boosts tight end touchdowns by 64% per target.

Worst Week 5 Matchups - Tight Ends
Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
G.Kittle SF 0 ARI Rk 5 6 6 8  
Pts   -0.1 0.0 -1.2 -1.3
D.Arnold JAX 1 TEN Rk 28 29 29 32  
Pts   -0.1 0.0 -0.9 -1.0
P.Freiermuth PIT 1 DEN Rk 24 25 26 28  
Pts   -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.6
N.Fant DEN 0 PIT Rk 7 7 7 7  
Pts   +0.2 +0.1 -0.5 -0.2
K.Pitts ATL 1 NYJ Rk 11 11 11 12  
Pts   +0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.2

George Kittle is the tight end between Schultz and Gesicki with a 26.0% target share the last two weeks. And with his consistent target rate, Kittle just can't fall too far in PPR formats. Still, I think he's a bad DFS choice at his extreme prices thanks to a lack of red zone usage and a difficult matchup. Kittle has just 14 touchdowns in his four-plus-year career and just 0.5 expected touchdowns on 28 targets this season. And with versatile tight end coverage options in Budda Baker and Isaiah Simmons, the Cardinals cut tight end yards by 47% per target and have yet to allow a tight end score a touchdown this year.

Worst DraftKings Values: George Kittle ($1,500 overpriced at $5,600), Dallas Goedert ($1,000 overpriced at $5,100), Kyle Pitts ($800 overpriced at $4,700)

Worst FanDuel Values: George Kittle ($900 overpriced at $6,500), Dallas Goedert ($500 overpriced at $6,100), Kyle Pitts ($400 overpriced at $5,800)

I expect Kyle Pitts to improve after his slow start to his rookie season. He continues to see the field on two-thirds or more of the Falcons snaps, and he is ninth at the position with a 17.1% target share and tied for sixth with 1.7 expected touchdowns. But Pitts' DFS salaries have not adjusted for the slow start at all. He's up from $4,400 in Week 1 to $4,700 this week in DraftKings. And he's down just $200 from $6,000 in Week 1 to $5,800 in FanDuel. Like the Cowboys are a public team for traditional sports betting, Pitts is clearly a public DFS tight end whose prices capture an optimism that just isn't yet supported by what he has produced on the field. Every elite tight end is overpriced in daily formats every week, but if you want to overspend at the position, I suggest you do it for Travis Kelce or Darren Waller.


9 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2021, 8:43am

1 "but Hill bested him for 172 yards"

White didn't travel with Hill in the AFCCG, and most of Hill's damage came from the slot vs Taron Johnson. White gave up closer to 6 rec for 60 yards.

2 Re: White

That's good extra context.  You clearly shouldn't bench Hill anywhere, but I'll be interested to see if the Bills defense looks dramatically better this week with their much better statistical showing early this season versus last year.

3 JACK Conklin?

As far as I can tell it's not a nickname or real name for him (from the blurb from the main page, not the article)


5 Queston in general lineup construction

So, Is it +EV to start two wide receiver from the same team. Like is it dumb to start jefferson and thielen this week, but also same scenario moving forward. 

6 Re: Teammates

From a weekly lineup perspective, I would definitely encourage you to start Jefferson and Thielen together this week and teammates together when the projections make sense.  That may make you more volatile in head-to-head leagues, but that will probably wash out over time.  For me, the bigger risk in stacking teammates in a full-season league is if something happened to Josh Allen, for example.