Stat Analysis

Advanced analytics on player and team performance

Stat Analysis

2018 Adjusted Games Lost: Part II
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2018 Adjusted Games Lost: Part II

In the second half of our series on NFL injuries in 2018, we break things down by position groups. Injuries to quarterbacks, running backs, and linebackers are down. Injuries are way up everywhere else, and in the defensive backfield, they are unprecedented.

2 comments, Last at 17 May 2019, 3:43pm by MilkmanDanimal
2018 Adjusted Games Lost: Part I
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2018 Adjusted Games Lost: Part I

Our first look at injury data from the 2018 season reveals some plain truths: injuries are on the rise; Washington and Jacksonville had historically bad luck on offense last year; and no team we've ever analyzed has suffered more injuries on defense than last year's Buccaneers.

5 comments, Last at 21 May 2019, 2:00pm by alien1rock
Introducing Targets Above Expectation
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Introducing Targets Above Expectation

At Football Outsiders, we measure receivers based on what they do with the targets they get -- but what happens when you look at a receiver's ability to generate targets in the first place? And what does it tell us about Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett?

7 comments, Last at 14 May 2019, 6:44pm by LionInAZ
2019 Free Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis
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2019 Free Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis

The annual review of the best values in free agency has harsh words for John Lynch and high praise for some Fitzmagic.

14 comments, Last at 14 May 2019, 2:59am by Bobman
Third Down and Air Yards
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Third Down and Air Yards

The numbers are clear: deep throws on third-and-long are more effective than checkdowns. So why are coaches so reluctant to call for the long bomb?

24 comments, Last at 12 May 2019, 4:40pm by mrt1212
SackSEER 2019
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SackSEER 2019

Our statistical projections for edge rushers in this year's draft agree with the consensus that the talent pool at the position is deep, but are surprisingly pessimistic about Ohio State's Nick Bosa, expected to be the first pass-rusher off the board Thursday night. Who has the best statistical profile? That's a surprise too.

16 comments, Last at 24 Apr 2019, 3:07am by Subrata Sircar
BackCAST 2019
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BackCAST 2019

Sometimes statistical projections simply reinforce common consensus -- and sometimes they knock that consensus on its ear. Welcome to BackCAST's projections for 2019 running backs, where a likely Day 3 pick leads the way, and the scouts' favorites fare quite poorly.

3 comments, Last at 20 Apr 2019, 1:45am by Lebo
Snap-Weighted Age: 2018 NFL Rosters
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Snap-Weighted Age: 2018 NFL Rosters

The oldest team in the league ended up winning it all last year, but 2018 saw a significant breakdown in the relationship between age and success.

1 comment, Last at 19 Apr 2019, 9:27am by RickD
Playmaker Score 2019
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Playmaker Score 2019

Marquise Brown -- top target for both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray at Oklahoma -- is the top wide receiver prospect in this year's draft class ... which says a lot about how limited the prospects this year are.

1 comment, Last at 14 Apr 2019, 10:44am by gofastjoey
2018 Offensive Line Continuity Scores
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2018 Offensive Line Continuity Scores

While the Rams reached the Super Bowl thanks in large part to the perfect cohesion of their offensive line, their division rivals used as many starters as any team we've ever measured.

7 comments, Last at 17 Apr 2019, 7:09pm by Bobman