Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by Scott Kacsmar

The NFL's Week 15 schedule won't win any awards for originality. Eleven of the games are divisional rematches from earlier this season, including two matchups just played on Thanksgiving. Since 2010 the league has used the entirety of Week 17 for divisional games, but setting those aside, this is only the fourth time since 2002 that at least 11 divisional games have been scheduled.

So familiarity is on display more than usual this week, but how much information from a first meeting can we really use to predict expectations for a rematch? Sure, it feels like Seattle can hold San Francisco to three points again this week, but what about Dolphins-Patriots? In Week 1, the Miami pass rush got to Tom Brady in the heat and Knowshon Moreno carried the offense to a 33-20 win. Those elements won't be present Sunday in Foxboro, nor will the Patriots have to worry about a recovering Rob Gronkowski, a suspended Brandon Browner, or Branden Albert at left tackle for the Dolphins.

Teams can change so drastically during a season. I contacted Giants offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz and asked him if first matchups are a major focus in rematch preparation or if teams care more about recent performance. "I'd say probably more about how the team is playing lately rather than just focusing on the one game," Schwartz told me. "Things can change so much over just a few weeks -- injuries or maybe a change in play-calling. Divisional opponents know each other so well already that I'd say the toughest part is finding wrinkles each time you play. In the end it's just making plays against what you know will happen."

I used the results of all 1,152 divisional games played in the 2002-2013 regular seasons to study the changes from one meeting to the next. Some of the data is presented in even splits between 2002-2007 and 2008-2013 just to test for consistency.

Correlation

Full disclosure: it's tricky business to use even 16 games to predict what will happen in one NFL game, let alone doing a one-for-one comparison. I did not expect to find significant correlation between each team's performance in the first round of divisional games and that same team's performance in rematches, but sometimes finding nothing is a story itself. Not finding any correlation at all would suggest NFL outcomes are completely random, which I don't think any of us wants to admit even if some weeks suggest that's the case.


Statistic
Correlation coefficient
2002-2013 2002-2007 2008-2013
Points scored 0.17 0.19 0.15
Points allowed 0.17 0.19 0.15
Scoring differential 0.21 0.26 0.16
Combined points 0.14 0.12 0.15
Total DVOA 0.06 0.10 0.01
Offensive DVOA 0.14 0.14 0.14
Defensive DVOA 0.02 0.03 0.01
Special Teams DVOA 0.01 -0.01 0.03

I tried regression, but the r-squared value was only 0.04. The p-value was very small for the scoring correlations, so at least the weak correlation exhibited there is not likely occurring by random chance. We don't expect a team that scored seven points to suddenly rack up 49 in a rematch, for example. I thought it was interesting that the numbers in the 2002-2007 period were a little stronger than the last six seasons, which have featured more passing (higher variance), more scoring and more big comeback wins.

So scoring at least has a non-zero correlation, but DVOA did not correlate well from game to game. The p-value was pretty close to 0.05 as well. At least we still see the common relationship in the numbers that suggest offense is more consistent than defense or special teams.

Winning

The home team has won 55.6 percent of divisional games from 2002-2013. Maybe the familiarity with each other has an impact there, because home teams have won 58.6 percent of non-divisional games and 59.9 percent of non-conference games (the least familiar opponents a team will play). When teams know each other so well, something like home field should become less important because even the experience of playing in that environment is already known to the opponent.

Something we often hear about in rematches is that the losing team had more to learn from the first game. That makes sense in theory. Schwartz notes that "it's also easier to game plan wrinkles in a rematch if you lost. The scheme advantage would go to them because the winning team isn't changing much. They will use what got them there."

Schwartz played in two very high-profile rematches in recent years. In 2012, Schwartz and the Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay 37-34 in Week 17, then matched up again just six days later in the NFC wild card game. Schwartz says the Vikings ran the exact same game plan, but the quarterback was different. Minnesota had to play Joe Webb instead of an injured Christian Ponder and lost 24-10. Last year with Kansas City, Schwartz and the Chiefs lost 23-7 in Week 16 to Indianapolis. Just 13 days later the Chiefs raced out to a 38-10 lead in the AFC wild card game, even after losing Jamaal Charles to injury, before falling victim to a monster Colts comeback. "We played badly in the Week 16 game, but I knew we could score," Schwartz said. "We ran way more sub/nickel runs in the playoff game so they couldn't pack the box. Especially way more read option than usual. That was a wrinkle we could add."

In theory it should be easier for you to correct your own mistakes than for the opponent to repeat their performance or tinker with a new way of finding success. However, what we often see is that one team is simply better than the other, and that gap is too much to make up regardless of what the first game taught the teams.

The first 576 divisional series in the eight-division era have featured 328 sweeps (56.9 percent). So more often than not, the team which wins the first game wins the second game as well. Here's a further breakdown.

Home Team in Divisional Games, 2002-2013
Split
Record
Pct.
Home (all) 639-511-2 0.556
Home (2002-2007) 314-262 0.545
Home (2008-2013) 325-249-2 0.566
Record in Divisional Rematch, 2002-2013
Split
Record
Pct.
Won first game (all) 328-246-1 0.571
Won first game (home) 162-155 0.511
Won first game (road) 166-91-1 0.645

Something interesting here is that when the home team wins the first meeting, that team is only seven games above .500 in the road rematch. However, when the road team is able to win the first game, they win 64.5 percent of the time in the rematch, which is considerably higher than the normal home-field advantage demonstrated in the upper half of the table. A good sign of a superior team is to come out and win the first meeting regardless of being on the road, which is what we saw happen on Thanksgiving with Philadelphia and Seattle winning in Dallas and San Francisco.

Here is a summary by division of sweeps and splits since 2002.

Divisional Sweep and Split Summary, 2002-2013
Division
Sweeps
Most Sweeps
Most Splits
NFC North 44 8 (GB vs. DET, MIN vs. DET) 8 (CHI vs. MIN)
NFC East 44 7 (PHI vs. WAS) 6 (NYG vs. PHI)
NFC West 43 7 (SEA vs. STL, SF vs. ARI) 7 (ARI vs. SEA)
NFC South 41 6 (CAR vs. TB, NO vs. ATL) 6 (ATL vs. CAR, ATL vs. TB, NO vs. CAR, NO vs. TB)
AFC South 40 8 (IND vs. HOU) 8 (JAC vs. TEN)
AFC North 39 9 (PIT vs. CLE) 8 (BAL vs. PIT)
AFC East 39 10 (NE vs. BUF) 7 (BUF vs. NYJ, MIA vs. NE, MIA vs. NYJ)
AFC West 38 7 (SD vs. OAK) 8 (DEN vs. KC)
Note: Splits are 1-1 only and do not include ties (2012 SF-STL, 2013 GB-MIN)

Not too many surprises here, though I am not sure why the NFC has more sweeps than the AFC when the division winners have been more consistent in the AFC.

Scoring Margins

I am not the biggest fan of using a game's final score for analysis, but it's an option we always have readily available.

  • The average final score in a first divisional game is 27.1-15.6 (42.7 total points)
  • The average final score in a divisional rematch is 27.2-15.3 (42.4 total points)

Total scoring in the NFL is pretty consistent, but what's the average turnaround in these games? The answer is 4.2 points. Given the estimated value of home-field advantage to be around three points, this number makes sense.

When the first game is decided by a one-score margin, 49.0 percent of the rematches are also decided by 1 to 8 points. First games decided by at least 17 points (three scores) result in a three-score rematch 28.8 percent of the time.

Do teams that win in blowout fashion tend to win the rematch more often and by bigger margins? They sure do, though the bigger margins tend to regress to a closer game.

Point Differential (PD): First Game vs. Rematch
Won by
Teams
Avg. PD
Rematch
Avg. PD
Won Again by
Teams
Pct.
30+ pts 26 33.2 16-10 (.615) 8.8 30+ pts 2 7.7%
20-29 pts 92 23.9 60-32 (.652) 4.0 20+ pts 13 14.1%
9-19 pts 168 13.1 98-69-1 (.586) 3.1 9+ pts 54 32.1%
4-8 pts 160 6.3 89-71 (.556) 2.5 4-8 pts 24 15.0%
1-3 pts 129 2.5 65-64 (.504) 0.9 1-3 pts 14 10.9%

When a team wins the first game by 1 to 3 points, then the rematch is basically a coin flip. Only two teams were able to sweep an opponent with a pair of 30-plus-point wins: the 2007 Patriots over the Bills, and the 2002 Falcons over the Panthers.

There have been six turnarounds of at least 50 points, and the Patriots were involved in half of them.

50+ Point Turnarounds, 2002-2013
Year
Team 1
Team 2
Game 1
Week
Game 2
Week
Turnaround
2003 Patriots Bills Bills 31-0 1 Patriots 31-0 17 62
2012 Seahawks Cardinals Cardinals 20-16 1 Seahawks 58-0 14 62
2010 Patriots Jets Jets 28-14 2 Patriots 45-3 13 56
2005 Redskins Giants Giants 36-0 8 Redskins 35-20 16 51
2009 Chiefs Broncos Broncos 44-13 13 Chiefs 44-24 17 51
2002 Patriots Jets Patriots 44-7 2 Jets 30-17 16 50

The 2002 Jets-Patriots can be summed up by Chad Pennington rescuing New York's season after a bad start. I guess 2003 is known as the Lawyer Milloy game in Week 1 when Tom Brady threw four interceptions in a 31-0 loss. The Patriots returned the favor in Week 17 when Brady threw four touchdowns in a 31-0 win. The most shocking turnaround for New England was really against the Jets in 2010, which doesn't even feature the 28-21 playoff loss at home just weeks after that 45-3 drubbing.

For 2012 Seahawks-Cardinals, that was the difference in Russell Wilson making his first career start on the road versus Seattle developing into a juggernaut later that season.

(Ed. Note: Also, Arizona was stuck using their third-string quarterback, some kid named Ryan Lindley. Sound familiar? Remember, that says 58-0. -- Aaron Schatz)

I am not sure why Washington failed so badly in New York in 2005, and all I remember about 2009 Chiefs-Broncos is Kyle Orton imploding and Jamaal Charles exploding for 259 yards in Week 17.

So what can we take from Dallas losing at home to Philadelphia by a 33-10 final this year? Teams losing by at least 20 points in a home meeting are just 17-36 (.321) in the road rematch.

DVOA

The average change in single-game DVOA is 1.9 percentage points, but that's looking at both teams for every game, so we would expect a number close to zero.

Teams with at least 50.0% total DVOA for the game are 106-1 in the first matchup. The only loss was the 2008 Ravens (50.1%) in overtime against Pittsburgh. In the rematch, those teams are 48-59 (.449) with an average DVOA of -0.2%.

Teams with worse than -50.0% total DVOA for the game are 2-139 in the first matchup. The only wins belong to the 2007 Cardinals (-50.6%) over the Rams and the 2009 Bengals, who somehow beat Cleveland in overtime despite a -75.0% DVOA for the game. In the rematch, those teams are 65-76 (.461) with an average DVOA of -1.0%.

I am not sure we can draw anything conclusive here, but a really good or really bad DVOA seems to regress back to around zero, understandably producing a record just below .500 in the process.

The biggest increase in team DVOA actually does not belong to the 2003 Patriots against Buffalo, but that is second place (+162.7%), with Buffalo suffering the steepest decline (-161.2%). The biggest increase is 2009 Tennessee against Jacksonville (+180.1%). The Titans used their bye week to replace Kerry Collins with Vince Young at quarterback, and for some reason Tennessee usually played better defense in those games with Young.

As always, offense sustains itself better than defense. Teams with at least 50.0% offensive DVOA in first meetings went 21-13 (.618) in rematches with 4.7% offensive DVOA. Teams with at least -50.0% defensive DVOA in first meetings went 19-22 (.463) in rematches with -4.7% defensive DVOA.

Timing Is Everything?

The only true battle for first place this week is Cowboys (9-4) at Eagles (9-4). Philadelphia won decisively, 33-10, just 17 days ago in Dallas. Does the timing of the matchups have any impact? The longer the gap between the games, the more likely the teams will be different due to injury accumulation. I plotted the average scoring turnaround based on the number of weeks in between games.

The biggest scoring turnaround (12.4) is the maximum time between games of 16 weeks and the next biggest (10.4) is the smallest time of two weeks. That's really interesting, though there are serious sample-size issues with only 10 and eight cases respectively, including our biggest outlier of 2003 Bills-Patriots. But even the third-biggest turnaround (8.2) is neatly placed at the midway point with eight weeks in between games.

It's a good thing for the NFL that rematches are fairly unpredictable, because the games otherwise wouldn't be as interesting to follow. Sure, a series like Bills-Patriots can resemble Friday the 13th in its bland repetitiveness, but those NFC South rivalries can offer as much variety as a season of The Twilight Zone. That's why we keep watching and continue guessing what will happen. We know the characters and the plots, but the NFL always finds a way to keep things fresh anyway.

Comments

23 comments, Last at 14 Dec 2014, 1:38pm

1 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by Kevin from Philly // Dec 12, 2014 - 4:22pm

"Not too many surprises here, though I am not sure why the NFC has more sweeps than the AFC when the division winners have been more consistent in the AFC."

Probably because the sucky teams in the NFC have been more consistently sucky (Detroit, Tampa, Washington, St. Louis, etc.).

Login or Register to post comments

5 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by justanothersteve // Dec 12, 2014 - 4:44pm

Agreed. The overall suckiness of the Rams and Lions alone could probably account for the difference.

Login or Register to post comments

7 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Dec 12, 2014 - 5:10pm

Came here to post exactly this and you guys beat me to it. The Millen Suckiness Dynasty rears its ugly head once again!

If you went back before 2002, I'm sure you would find more examples of a consistently bad team being stuck in a division with a consistently good team (late 90's Saints and 49er/Rams, early 90's Cardinals with Cowboys, mid 80's non-Vikings NFC Central teams and Bears, 70's Bills and Dolphins), which would skew the results.

Login or Register to post comments

21 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by RickD // Dec 14, 2014 - 1:14pm

Also, the AFC divisions (esp. East and South) have often had only one dominant team. To optimize the number of sweeps, you want two very good teams and two poor teams, like the NFC East this season (though, of course, the Redskins had to screw up this example by winning in Dallas).

Login or Register to post comments

2 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by David C // Dec 12, 2014 - 4:36pm

"The Titans used their bye week to replace Kerry Collins with Vince Young at quarterback, and for some reason Tennessee usually played better defense in those games with Young."

more running and scrambling = more time for the defense to rest

Login or Register to post comments

6 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by Revenge // Dec 12, 2014 - 5:07pm

Eh, not really. More effective offense in general = more first downs = more time for the defense to rest. Running just to run a couple minutes of game clock does nothing; real world time on the sidelines is what matters.

Login or Register to post comments

8 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Dec 12, 2014 - 5:11pm

I'm sure the late Bud Adams would have attributed it to Young's "leadership".

Login or Register to post comments

3 Re: redksin vs gaints 2005 Studytööde

by Raiderjoe // Dec 12, 2014 - 4:38pm

Up there in articlw is comemnt about what happened to washington when play in ny 2005. That was emotional game for Gintas after owner passed away. Won 36-0 if recall right

Login or Register to post comments

4 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by lrargerich // Dec 12, 2014 - 4:43pm

I liked this article a lot, very interesting. Thank you for it.

On a related (or not) area I've been thinking about a coefficient to weight how important a game is a to a team. It would basically measure how your playoff odds will change if you win or lose and if you are home or away.

For example for the Patriots losing against the Packers at Lambeau was not a big deal, but for Dallas losing against the Eagles will be a huge problem.

Based on that I think you can get a ranking of wins weighter by the importance coefficient to analyze which teams win the games that really matter.

Login or Register to post comments

9 58-0

by techvet // Dec 12, 2014 - 5:38pm

I had to look the 58-0 game up. Lindley has a QB rating of only 55.8, but that was still three times better than the 18.2 rating of one John Skelton, who threw four picks in that game. The leading rusher for ARI had 20 yards.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=321209026

We need a separate article for the worst QB performances of all-time (regular season) for a QB who attempted at least 20 passes.

Login or Register to post comments

10 Re: 58-0

Login or Register to post comments

12 Re: 58-0

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Dec 12, 2014 - 7:50pm

I saw most of that game on Directv redzone, and andrew siciliano kept a running count of Arizona turnovers vs Arizona first downs. The turnovers were in the lead until early in the 4th quarter

Login or Register to post comments

11 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by The Powers That Be // Dec 12, 2014 - 6:17pm

One thought: many divisional rematches (but no first games) come in weeks 16 and 17, which will often involve teams that are resting key personnel. These should perhaps be factored out.

Login or Register to post comments

16 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by Bobman // Dec 14, 2014 - 1:35am

What, did Tony Dungy just text you to ask that question?

Certainly a valid one, at least where Indy was concerned.

Login or Register to post comments

20 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by Hurt Bones // Dec 14, 2014 - 12:05pm

Or with the 2012 Ravens when they pulled all their regulars after the first series in the final against the Bengals. Most of the game it was Tyrod Taylor throwing to the likes of David Reed and Deonte Thompson. No Suggs or Ngata or Reed, Just a lot of Brendon Ayenbadejo, Josh Bynes and Chykie Brown on defense.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201212300cin.htm

Login or Register to post comments

13 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by sa_eagles // Dec 12, 2014 - 8:01pm

Are divisional games in general more unpredictable than non-divisional games? (i.e. Is DVOA more predictive in non-divisional matchups?) I feel like intradivision games are always closer calls. As an Eagles fan, a game against the Giants or Redskins always scare me more than a Titans or Panthers team, even if their track records are similar.

Login or Register to post comments

14 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by big10freak // Dec 13, 2014 - 7:54am

A minor point is that in 2012 when the Vikings beat the Packers along with Adrian Peterson being incredible Christian Ponder both played out of his mind and getting very lucky. There were two tipped passes that most of the time get intercepted but in this game fell to the ground.

Login or Register to post comments

15 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by nat // Dec 13, 2014 - 8:09am

Rather than doing a correlation of first games to rematches, you could look at home vs away pairs regardless of order. Or you could treat teams that play their rematch at home or away as two separate studies. Because mixing home-away and away-home series is driving your correlation down artificially.

Login or Register to post comments

17 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by mitch // Dec 14, 2014 - 10:17am

This research is way to general. Of coarse when the first place team plays the last place teams will produce a completely different result then when a first and second place team play a second time.

One can not use the same data to determine that, very poor research here.

When the road team wins the first game then comes back home to win a high percentage of those games how many times did that include the first and last place team and how many times did it include the first and second place teams.

How many times does it include both teams having the same record the second time they play as in Dallas/Philadelphia ?

Two completely different situations that your trying to count as being the same. I'd expect alot better research than this.

Login or Register to post comments

18 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by mitch // Dec 14, 2014 - 10:30am

So let me get this straight.

Because Denver can beat 2-11 Raiders twice, Colts can beat 2-11 Titans and 2-11 Jags twice, Pats can beat 2-11 Jets twice, Packers could best 5-8 Bears twice, that will tell you how Cowboys and Eagles series will work out ? Or Bengals/Browns ?

Are you guys for real ?

Login or Register to post comments

22 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by RickD // Dec 14, 2014 - 1:16pm

I don't see anybody saying anything close to that.

Login or Register to post comments

19 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by Jetspete // Dec 14, 2014 - 11:29am

Good article, but in terms of this year i think the number of Thursday divisional games hinders the ability to predict future games based on past performance. Seven of today's games are rematches of games played on a Thursday. Had Tony Romo had a full week to recover from his back ailment, instead of about 85 hours, that game would've likely been different.

The same could be said for Washington and Houston today, as Gruden and BOB had three days to game plan for first time meetings with Eli and Luck, respectively. Washington was trounced, and Houston was down big before a rally in the 2nd half.

Login or Register to post comments

23 Re: NFL Divisional Rematches Study

by RickD // Dec 14, 2014 - 1:38pm

Thursday games usually have the same amount of preparation time for both teams.

Login or Register to post comments