Quarterback Postseason Drive Stats

by Scott Kacsmar

In the first part of this series on quarterbacks in the postseason, I looked at some of the fallacies in how quarterbacks are judged by win-loss record along with opponent adjustments for passing stats. Today, I have an update to the playoff drive stats I first introduced three years ago at Pro-Football-Reference.

Each year this study grows and it now includes 32 quarterbacks (14 active) and 4,346 drives. I have long advocated for the use of drive stats since they adjust for the pace at which games are played. Looking at quarterbacks through this prism can provide great context, although we need a bit of a caveat since these are stats for the entire offensive unit.

Disclaimer: While passing stats are not truly individual stats either, the drive stats are even more teammate focused. There are of course drives where the quarterback never drops back and just hands the ball off every play. The entry "Russell Wilson" is another way of saying "2012-13 Seattle Seahawks" and also an abbreviation for Russell Okung, Marshawn Lynch, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Zach Miller, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, etc. Drive stats are not adjusted for opponent.

Generally, only games started by the quarterback are included, but there are some significant backup performances included for Steve Young, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Mark Brunell, Dave Krieg, Bernie Kosar and Randall Cunningham.

Most of these stats will be familiar to users of Football Outsiders' drive stats -- my inspiration for collecting this data in the first place. Since we're specifically looking at quarterbacks, there are some differences in calculations. Yards per drive are still net yards that include penalties, but penalties during punt and field goal formations are excluded here. As always, kneeldown drives are excluded and any kneeldown is removed from the drive stats.

General Drive Stats

Our first table includes the general drive stats for yards (Yds/Dr), points (Pts/Dr) and average starting field position (LOS/Dr). "QBTO/Dr" refers to the turnovers by only the quarterback, which include interceptions and lost fumbles. "PEN +/-" is a per-drive measure of the net difference in penalty yards for the quarterback's offense. So if an offense drew an encroachment penalty and had a 10-yard holding penalty on the same drive, the net would be -5.0 for that drive. Active players are in bold and the average of the sample is included at the bottom.

Just think what Colin Kaepernick's stats looked like before his worst playoff game in the NFC Championship. There are six main stats here, and Kaepernick (four) and Russell Wilson (two) lead the way in all of them. Of course they only have 10 playoff games between them.

I have tried to only include players with at least six postseason starts, but Tony Romo (four) has been there since I first started doing this research because I assumed he would be making more appearances. That just has not happened. Wilson will get his fifth start on Sunday and Matt Ryan is the only other quarterback with five starts. I do not have a crystal ball for Romo, but we can safely assume Ryan and Wilson will start more playoff games in the future.

Kaepernick is likely entering a similar position to Aaron Rodgers after his 2010 Super Bowl run. Rodgers' playoff stats were off the charts, but have regressed following each of his last four games. Kaepernick even getting the biggest advantage from penalties (+1.07) probably has a few Carolina fans sneering right now. Fortunately, the average in penalties is almost zero, so in the rare event penalties are called in the playoffs, they have balanced out decently on offense versus defense in this study.

Last week I pondered where Denver's 60.5 yards per drive against New England would rank for the postseason. A full collection is on the to-do list so we can marvel at oddities like the Kelly Holcomb game or the time Philadelphia scored 58 points on Detroit. However, for the time being any references here to the best and worst playoff games are only based on the games in this study, but the 2013 AFC Championship is the second time a team has averaged over 60 yards per drive. Here are the top 10 studied games for points per drive and yards per drive:

Peyton Manning makes the most appearances of any quarterback while Joe Montana and Steve Young present the only Super Bowl performances. It's unlikely Manning will add another historic game to his resume on Sunday given Seattle's defense, but in Super Bowl XLIV against the Saints, he did lead the Colts to 52.0 yards per drive -- the second-highest average by a losing team in the study and the highest in any non-Wild Card game.

Speaking of the Super Bowl, Wilson has just two turnovers on 42 playoff drives, including a Hail Mary interception in his playoff loss in Atlanta last year. That is Ryan's only playoff win and no quarterback has turned the ball over more frequently than Ryan in the playoffs (10 times on 53 drives).

Ryan has plenty of time to write his legacy. A retired Dave Krieg continues to bring up the rear in drive stats for points, yards and most punts. His offense also went three-and-out more frequently than anyone.

Note: Drives where an offense ran three plays, gained zero first downs and kicked a field goal because they started in ideal field position count as a three-and-out drive here.

Ryan's three-and-out drives came with an average deficit of 8.23 points, so that's definitely an issue. Compare that to Rodgers, who may only be average at avoiding three-and-out drives -- Green Bay started with three in a row this January against San Francisco -- but has led by an average of 7.80 points when it's happened. Leading teams are less likely to play aggressive and will try to literally run out the clock.

Not surprisingly, of the 12 quarterbacks with a deficit for their average three-and-out drive, only three have a winning record in the playoffs. The five with a deficit of more than five points are a combined 18-32 (.360).

The 2011 Ravens went three-and-out eight times against Houston in a 20-13 AFC Divisional win. That's the most three-and-out drives by one team in any of the games studied here. Baltimore averaged just 16.43 yards per drive, but that's not even the worst performance of moving the ball in a playoff win. The 2005 Redskins behind Mark Brunell beat Tampa Bay on the road despite only averaging 10.9 yards per drive on 10 drives. Only two drives gained more than nine yards. That game was especially brutal for me to watch given my furnace failed that weekend and I was without heat. The Redskins were offense-less behind Joe Gibbs 2.0, but Tampa Bay had Chris Simms at quarterback, so there's usually a good explanation for unimpressive victories.

Punts are the most common way for a drive to end, but here's a handy reference chart that summarizes how each quarterback's drives have ended in the playoffs (11 options). "Miss" is a missed field goal. "BOTFG" is a botched field goal that means a bad snap or hold never allowed the kick to happen. "Clock" is a drive that ended because the clock expired at the end of a half. "FUM-TM" and "FUM-QB" are lost fumbles split up by teammates (TM) and the quarterback himself. "Downs" always means a failed fourth-down conversion.

From there we can compile some interesting numbers like how well each quarterback's kickers have done (splits by distance on the to-do list) and the breakdown of lost fumble luck:

Well, no missed kicks yet for Wilson and the Seahawks. Flacco's kickers being 19-of-20 must really sting for Baltimore fans when everyone knows what the one miss was. Montana would have even better numbers if his kickers didn't miss 14 times in an era of weaker kicking, but at least none of the misses ever directly cost him a game. The choking legacy of Nate Kaeding helps Philip Rivers bring up the rear.

Speaking of Montana having better numbers, it's pretty amazing that he only lost one fumble compared to 12 by his teammates. Everyone remembers the Roger Craig fumble in the 1990 NFC Championship, but Montana was already out of the game by then with an injury, so that's not one of the 12. Craig had four other lost fumbles in the playoffs with Montana behind center. As for "The Fumble" with Earnest Byner and the Cleveland Browns, Bernie Kosar joins Matt Hasselbeck as the only quarterbacks studied to not lose a playoff fumble.

Starting Field Position and Touchdowns

Here's a crucial element to success that the offense has no direct control over. While there are field position battles involving punts throughout the course of most games, once a team scores that battle is over and it goes back to the special teams to decide where the next drive (and battle) begins. An offense can hurt its defense greatly in field position with a turnover, but can also be aided by one from its own defense. It's a part of the game that gets overlooked too often, but some quarterbacks have definitely had a bigger advantage than others based on how far they had to drive to score points.

The following table shows each quarterback's average starting field position (LOS/Dr). You can see the number of drives where the offense started at exactly the 20, followed by the percentage of drives that started at the 20 or worse, their own 21-35, own 36-49 and drives that started in opponent territory. The "Worst GP" is the worst average starting field position the quarterback had in any one playoff game. The top figure in each column is in bold, while the worst figure is in red and bold.

Kaepernick's placement near the bottom is a direct result of the kickoff rule change in 2011 that has created many more touchbacks and worse field position overall. Since all six of Kaepernick's playoff starts have been since last year, it's no surprise to see his numbers be what they are. Then again, that does little to explain Wilson having the best field position, other than it being a tiny four-game sample and a sign the Seahawks are really good on defense and special teams. Wilson's never had a worse game than getting to start at the 29.64, which fittingly was his only playoff loss (2012 Falcons). Matt Ryan only started at his own 25.10 that day, but he's quickly grown used to bad field position in big games.

Still, no one can take the crown for notoriously bad field position in the playoffs from Peyton Manning. He's ranked 30th despite only playing three of his 22 games in the post-2011 kickoff era. He's had a study-low 7.0 percent of his drives start in opponent territory. The average is 13.2 percent. Not only is Manning's average field position of 15.67 against the 2008 Chargers the worst for any studied playoff game, his 16.63 mark in Super Bowl XLIV is the third worst. Tom Brady's 16.11 in Super Bowl XLVI rests between the two Manning games and this era's greatest quarterbacks went 0-3 in those games with 17 points on the board in all three.

The correlation coefficient between LOS/Dr and Pts/Dr may only be 0.306 (based only on this data), but no one can deny the increased difficulty associated with having to drive long fields for points against the best competition in the game.

When breaking down the touchdown drives each quarterback has led in the playoffs, those differences in field position start to show up more.

Manning's right near the top with his average touchdown drive traveling 72.2 yards. He's led the most 80-plus yard touchdown drives (22) in postseason history, breaking John Elway's record of 21. Believe it or not, Kaepernick is already halfway to that total in six games. He's No. 1 in touchdowns per drive. Current players will have more opportunities, but it's still impressive to watch an offense go the long way for a touchdown.

Beyond Kaepernick, San Francisco quarterbacks again create a lot of intrigue here with Montana's average touchdown drive coming with the biggest lead (4.15). Steve Young's right behind him and no quarterbacks had more drives start in opponent territory than those two. Then there's Jeff Garcia with the long scoring drives, but they came with the biggest deficit (7.21).

Seeing Mark Sanchez in between Manning and Jim Kelly in TD/Dr is confounding, but these are just drive stats. Something like Expected Points Added, which we'll look at next week, can do a much better job to gauge the individual's contribution to scoring.

Average Scoring Margin

This final table focuses on the scoreboard. The Avg. Lead is again the average score margin at the start of the drive (negative for a deficit). Then it’s broken down by the number of drives when the offense was behind, tied or ahead. "3SD-" is the number of drives that started with the offense trailing by at least three scores (17-plus points since 1994 or 15-plus prior). "3SL+" is the number of drives that started with the offense holding at least a three-score lead.

Hard to say I was expecting Neil O'Donnell to jump to the top of the list with the largest average lead per drive in the postseason and the highest percentage of drives with a lead. With a 3-4 record as a starter, O'Donnell joins Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks with a positive scoring margin per drive to not have a winning playoff record. O'Donnell is doing it on the back of two easy wins over the 1994 Browns and 1995 Bills in which the Steelers seized control early and never let up.

Tom Brady (28.37 percent) still has the lowest rate of drives playing from behind, but 2014 entries Bernie Kosar and Russell Wilson are the new high and low for drives in a tied game.

Three years later and the fact that still remains most staggering from this table: Dan Marino trailed by at least three scores on 23.4 percent of his postseason drives. Suddenly 8-10 with some less than stellar stats makes more sense.

Eight quarterbacks with potential to be included in next year's study, if I reduce the minimum number of drives to be considered: Andrew Luck, Alex Smith, Drew Bledsoe, Mark Rypien, Chad Pennington, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins and Trent Dilfer. That would give us a top 40.

Drive Stats for Super Bowl XLVIII

I have intentionally given Manning and Wilson a lot of focus, but here's some more to close things out. Consider it an appetizer to the Super Bowl previews this week. The Broncos and Seahawks are perfect examples of why we need a heavier usage of drive stats. Some will look at each team and conclude the following:

• In the playoffs, Denver is averaging 25.0 points scored per game and 16.5 points allowed per game.
• In the regular season, Denver averaged 37.9 points scored per game and 24.9 points allowed per game.
• The offense is down 12.9 points per game and the defense is improved by 8.4 points per game -- a net decrease of 4.5 points per game.
• In the playoffs, Seattle is averaging 23.0 points scored per game and 16.0 points allowed per game.
• In the regular season, Seattle averaged 26.1 points scored per game and 14.4 points allowed per game.
• The offense is down 3.1 points per game and the defense is allowing 1.6 more points per game -- a net decrease of 4.7 points per game.
• Each team has decreased by about the same scoring margin, but Denver's swings are more volatile.

No, things should not be worked out this way. For starters, Denver's offense averaged 12 drives per game in the regular season, but has only had the ball eight times in each playoff game and ended both games by running out the clock. The ball-control offense has worked and the scoring efficiency is still just as staggering as the regular season.

The Broncos offense is averaging 3.13 Pts/Dr in the playoffs after averaging 2.98 Pts/Dr in the regular season. While the defense has done great work for the first three quarters of each game, the defense is allowing 2.06 Pts/Dr in the playoffs after allowing 1.88 Pts/Dr in the regular season. In this regard, one can say the Denver offense has been a tad better and the defense has been a tad worse at scoring efficiency.

Seattle's games have featured more drives, so in the playoffs the Seahawks are scoring 2.19 Pts/Dr and allowing 1.39 Pts/Dr. Compared to a regular season with 2.16 Pts/Dr scored and 1.22 Pts/Dr allowed, it would appear Seattle's strength (defense) has taken more of a fall than the fictional decline from Denver's strength (offense).

Of course none of this takes into consideration the opponents faced or that pesky field position, but if the Broncos are anywhere close to 3.0 Pts/Dr on Sunday, then the Seahawks are in serious trouble, even if the Broncos only score 24 points.

Manning has averaged 1.97 Pts/Dr in his 23 full-game losses since 2007. That would be the second-worst game of the season for Denver's offense (1.71 in New England) and the third-worst game of the season for Seattle's defense after Indianapolis (3.0) and Tampa Bay (2.18).

Manning has only had one three-and-out drive in his last 35 postseason possessions. The Seahawks rank 15th at forcing three-and-out drives and have done it only four times on 23 drives this postseason. Denver has one punt on 16 playoff drives and has gained at least 37 yards on 14 of its 16 drives. The only times Denver was really stopped were a Julius Thomas fumble against San Diego and a drive that started at the San Diego 30 where no more than 30 yards could be gained. Denver gained 26 before a tipped ball was intercepted in the end zone. The offense might punt more times and go three-and-out more times in the first quarter or first half on Sunday than the last two games combined, but the Broncos should be able to move the ball effectively against Seattle.

Wilson has the lowest standard deviation in Pts/Dr in the playoffs (0.19). He's been able to exceed 2.0 Pts/Dr in each game despite varying degrees of individual success. Again, that significant field position advantage helps. Manning ranks 29th out of 32 quarterbacks in standard deviation (1.36). That's more likely to happen with some of the best games ever and quarterbacks like Montana (1.12) and Young (1.49) also rank near the bottom in standard deviation. Wilson will have to count on that consistency while Manning needs to play efficiently.

It would not be like me to spend this much time on drive stats without mentioning game-winning drives. If Wilson leads one, he'll tie Andrew Luck for the most through two seasons (11). If Manning leads one, he'll move past Dan Marino for the most in NFL history with 52. No pressure, guys.