SackSEER 2014

by Nathan Forster

With the NFL Combine under wraps, it is time for the annual unveiling of our SackSEER projections for the college "edge rushers" (4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers) available in the 2014 NFL Draft. For those unfamiliar with SackSEER, SackSEER predicts each player’s likely level of pass-rushing success based on combine drills and college production. The projections are based on the college and professional numbers of the 322 edge rushers taken in the NFL Draft from 1998–2012.

SackSEER expresses its thoughts on each drafted edge rusher through two outputs: SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating. SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating contain the following common elements:

• An "explosion index" that measures the prospect’s scores in the forty-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
• The prospect’s score on the three-cone drill;
• A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect’s per game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL Draft and position switches during college;
• The prospect’s college passes defensed divided by college games played;

and

• The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.

SackSEER projection projects the number of regular season sacks that a prospect will record in his first five regular seasons in the NFL. Unlike SackSEER rating, SackSEER projection includes the prospect’s projected round drafted from NFL Draft Scout.

SackSEER rating provides a historical percentile rating of the college edge rusher’s prospects for success as compared to the other prospects in SackSEER’s database, irrespective of projected draft position. For instance, SackSEER currently has 322 edge rushers in its database, so a prospect in this year’s draft who is stronger than 214 of those prospects on the historical trends identified by SackSEER would have a SackSEER rating of 66.9 percent [214 / 322]. So, if you want to see how the prospects stack up based on SackSEER’s trends alone, you can look at SackSEER rating, and if you want to see how the prospects stack up based on SackSEER’s trends when balanced against conventional wisdom, you can look at SackSEER projection.

SackSEER rating also includes two additional factors that are not included in SackSEER projection: quality of competition and weight. As to quality of competition, SackSEER contains a slight downward adjustment for players who hail from Division II or Division III schools. Followers of our SackSEER system might notice that we are including weight as a factor for the first time. As mentioned in previous updates, weight approached, but was not statistically significant in our prior regressions. Well, updating SackSEER with the 2012 edge rushers was enough to push weight into statistical significance. Weight is a relatively weak factor -— it is still much more important for an edge rusher to be fast than big -— but weight does improve the projections for years past, so we are using it this year. Notice that weight is not included in SackSEER projection. Scouts do a pretty good job of valuing prospects with a good size/speed combination, so including weight in SackSEER projection would just be redundant.

This year’s edge rusher prospects are a fascinating group, both for on the field and off the field reasons. Moreover, this year we have a new record SackSEER projection -— and what’s more, it doesn't belong to the guy who ran the forty-yard dash in 4.53 seconds.

Here are the SackSEER projections for the top edge rushers available in the 2014 NFL Draft:

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock caused a minor controversy by stating that he would select Khalil Mack over Jadeveon Clowney, the most hyped defensive end prospect in the past decade. Well, Mayock has SackSEER in his corner, as Mack bests not only Clowney, but every 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker ever in the SackSEER projection system. Without the benefit of hindsight, SackSEER projection would slightly prefer Mack over Julius Peppers and Jevon Kearse (who have now been bumped down to the second- and third-highest projections on SackSEER’s all-time best list).

It may sound crazy, but SackSEER actually likes Mack’s Combine workout better than Clowney’s. Clowney had a faster forty-yard dash (4.53 seconds versus 4.63 seconds), but Mack bested Clowney in the vertical leap, the broad jump, and crushed him in the three-cone. It is true that Clowney is bigger than Mack, but based on Combine weigh-ins, Clowney is only 15 pounds heavier than Mack -— bigger, but not so big as to offset Mack’s other advantages. Clowney may be a freak athlete, but putting Mack’s entire workout (and not just his forty-yard dash) in historical context, Mack is as freaky as Clowney, if not freakier.

Moreover, Mack’s stats for the Buffalo Bulls suggest that he is not so much a man, but rather, a vortex where offensive plays go to die. Mack holds the all-time FBS record for forced fumbles (16) and ties the all-time record for tackles for loss (75). To top it off, Mack had four interceptions and 24 passes broken up. The NCAA doesn’t track defeats, but with over one hundred combined tackles for loss and passes defensed, Mack would likely have the all-time record if it did.

The principal objection to Mack seems to be his lack of competition in the MAC, and indeed, a student of recent edge rusher prospects might note that, with the exception of maybe Jason Babin, there has not been a strong edge rusher from the MAC since Jason Taylor in 1997. These concerns, however, are likely overblown: it is actually pretty amazing how little strength of competition has mattered as far as the success of pass rushing defensive ends and linebackers. If DeMarcus Ware and his 27.5 college sacks in the Sun Belt Conference could make it in the NFL, Mack’s 28.5 in the MAC certainly can.

More concerning for Mack might be his small-ish 251-pound size. Mack probably should go to a 3-4 team or a team willing to use him in more of a Von Miller role in a 4-3 to reach his pass rushing potential. With such a strong projection, it seems likely that only a poor scheme fit or a serious injury could prevent Mack from becoming an extremely successful NFL player.

Anthony Barr played his first two seasons for the Bruins at running back, but was switched to a pass rushing linebacker for his final two seasons at UCLA. The switch proved fortuitous, as Barr amassed 23 sacks in his final 27 games. Barr compares favorably to former Steelers linebacker Joey Porter, who also played his first two years in college at running back, showed promise as a pass rusher, and scored well during the NFL Combine.

With the hype attendant to Jadeveon Clowney, any projection that falls short of anointing him as the next Deacon Jones could be taken as a slight. SackSEER sees Clowney as a once-a-year prospect, rather than the once-in-a-decade prospect that he’s sometimes made out to be.

The principal reason that Clowney’s projection is just good, rather than truly awesome, is his passes defensed rate. Clowney had only seven pass break ups in 36 games and no interceptions. That gives Clowney a 0.19 passes defensed rate -— only slightly higher than the average drafted edge rusher passes defensed rate of 0.17. That’s not exactly a ticket to bust city, but it is enough to insure that Clowney falls short of other elite prospects like Julius Peppers and Mario Williams, who each more than doubled Clowney’s passes defensed rate.

Clowney is obviously a fantastic athlete. His explosion index of +1.58 is excellent, if not record-setting. One possible red flag, however, is his three-cone drill time of 7.27 seconds, which is actually two ticks below average for a drafted edge rusher. Because Clowney has such great straight-line athleticism, you have to wonder about his ability to bend if a few directional changes in a drill transform him into an average Joe. Clowney complained of a hip flexor at the Combine, so his mediocre three-cone might simply be a function of a minor injury, but it is nonetheless a potential area of concern.

It is also a bit curious that Clowney enters the draft with only three sacks in his final college season, which will actually be a sort of record -— no edge rusher drafted in the first round since at least 1998 has had so few sacks in his final college season. However, that fact is a piece of trivia, rather than a legitimate reason to doubt Clowney’s prospects. Historically, there is no demonstrable advantage for ending one’s career on a high or low note. The correlation between a prospect’s first, second, third, and fourth years in college and NFL success are all essentially identical. Clowney recorded eight, 13, and three sacks in each of his three college seasons, respectively. If instead, Clowney had recorded three sacks as a freshman, eight as a sophomore, and 13 as a junior, no one would have batted an eye.

Overall, there is nothing in Clowney’s SackSEER numbers that should dissuade an NFL decision-maker from making Clowney a top-five pick in the NFL Draft. Remember that SackSEER projects pass rushing skill only and says nothing about a prospect’s ability to contribute against the run. With a 6-foot-5, 266-pound frame, Clowney could be the rare defensive end prospect that can play both the run and the pass at a high level.

Kony Ealy has an excellent combination of size and quickness, which obviously gives him great value as a pass-rushing defensive end in the 4-3 who can also contribute against the run. Ealy was strong at batting down passes as well. However, he falls just short of the top edge rushers in this draft due to his poor explosion index and his mediocre sack production. Ealy was just okay in his junior season, with eight sacks in 14 games, and only had a total of 4.5 sacks over the two years prior.

Kyle Van Noy has the highest SackSEER projection out of of a quartet of promising edge rushers that could be had in the second round, which also includes Jackson Jeffcoat and Trent Murphy. Other than a high passes defensed rate, Van Noy shares little with his former teammate Ziggy Ansah, who was much larger and had better Combine numbers.

POTENTIAL SLEEPER ALERT

Most of the talent SackSEER likes in this draft is at the top, but there are a few potential value adds. Kareem Martin of North Carolina is the most significant, a potential steal in the third round. Martin is open to "one-year wonder" criticism, but he had a nice, solid Combine workout and an above-average passes defensed rate. Deeper in the draft, Larry Webster is a nice lottery ticket-type pick from the tiny school of Bloomsburg. He had great sack production and a strong Combine performance, but gets marked down for his sub-FCS level of competition.

POTENTIAL BUST ALERT

Dee Ford has gone on record with his opinion that he is a stronger edge rusher prospect than Jadeveon Clowney. SackSEER strongly disagrees. Ford is a four-year player who was not productive in terms of sacks until his fourth and final year. Moreover, Ford’s passes defensed rate is really poor, especially for a smaller, more athletic defensive end who should have been moved around the defense -— he had only two passes defensed in four full seasons combined with an injury-shortened 2011. Speaking of the 2011 injury, the same back issues that caused Ford to take a medical redshirt recently re-emerged during the Combine. Teams looking to upgrade their pass rush in the middle to late first round would be better served "reaching" for the underrated and alliterative Jackson Jeffcoat or Trent Murphy rather than selecting Ford.

THE BATTLE OF TANGIBLES AND INTANGIBLES

At the bottom of the page is a chart of all of the SackSEER projections for edge rushers who received an invite to this year’s NFL Combine. Of great interest to most readers will be Missouri defensive end Michael Sam, who seeks to make history by becoming the first openly gay player to play in the NFL. The Football Outsiders staff certainly has a great deal of admiration for Sam’s courage, and we will be rooting for him to succeed. SackSEER, however, is a series of equations that are indifferent towards a prospect’s strength of character. In Sam’s case, those equations are not kind.

SackSEER is not a fan of Sam’s production, which may be somewhat counter-intuitive considering that Sam was the co-defensive player of the year in the SEC -— widely acknowledged to be the best defensive conference in college football. But Sam was not consistently productive over his career: he had only nine sacks in his first 37 games with the Missouri Tigers. Although he certainly had a nice senior season with 11.5 sacks in 14 games, edge rushers who are one-hit wonders in their senior seasons rarely pan out in the NFL. The lone exception is Tamba Hali, and Hali had the additional excuse of being miscast as a defensive tackle for his two years -— an excuse Sam cannot claim. Moreover, it may not be a coincidence that Sam’s senior season coincided with the ascension of teammate Kony Ealy.

Perhaps just as concerning is Sam’s average of less than a tenth of a pass defensed per game. Sam had plenty of time to accumulate passes defensed -— a whopping 52 games -— but collected few. Moreover, we have relatively good proof in the form of Kony Ealy’s good passes defensed rate that the scorekeepers at Missouri and its opponents were not overly stingy with awarding passes defensed to defensive linemen while Sam played for the Tigers.

To top it off, Sam’s Combine was even poorer than his 4.91 forty-yard dash time would suggest, as Sam scored below average on every drill that SackSEER cares about. Particularly poor were Sam’s vertical leap and three-cone drill, which were the second-worst and the tenth-worst, respectively, among the 320-plus edge rushers in SackSEER’s database. Sam’s three-cone, in fact, was almost a full second slower than teammate Kony Ealy, despite the latter being ten pounds heavier than the former.

Overall, there have been only 14 prospects that SackSEER rating likes less than Sam. Half of those guys had exactly zero career sacks (even if you exclude Brandon Jenkins, who has zero career sacks but was drafted just last year). Only three of those 14 players had, or are on pace to have, double-digit career sacks: Talance Sawyer, Robert Ayers, and Ellis Wyms. Before the Combine, some projected Sam as a third- or fourth-round pick. SackSEER thinks he’s closer to a seventh-round pick or an undrafted free agent.

This last table shows all the players we haven't specifically written about that were invited to the combine, as sorted by their projected sacks through year five: