2014 Incomplete Pass Breakdown: Receivers

May 08, 2015, 2:52 pm ET

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Scott Kacsmar

In the first part of our look at incomplete passes in the 2014 season we focused only on passers. By shifting the focus to the players on the other end of those passes, we get into some murky territory on whether or not the receiver should even be credited with a target given the type of pass. One category that never gets a target is the spike, but we have already removed those, leaving 17,807 passes without penalties in the regular season. Only 181 of those were listed with no intended target, and 146 of those were intentional throwaways. That means 99.0 percent of all passes had a target; realistically, that number should probably be a tad lower.

For instance, on the 31 plays marked as intentional grounding last season, only four had a target. In theory, if the play is truly grounding, then there should be no target, because if there was a clear target on a play, that means the quarterback got the ball close enough to a receiver to avoid a penalty. Passes that are thrown away or batted down at the line are often listed with a target, which is really unfair to the receiver given he had no realistic opportunity to catch the ball on those plays.

I can vividly remember my first interest in wanting to break down incompletions for receivers, but not having the means to do the charting required to make the numbers matter. It was the 2006 season, and I may or may not have had Miami wide receiver Chris Chambers on my fantasy team. His season lives in infamy after he accumulated -297 DYAR, the worst mark in Football Outsiders' database back to 1989. Chambers only caught 39 percent of his 153 targets, which came from the trio of post-ACL Daunte Culpepper (41.0 percent completion rate), a vanquished Joey Harrington (39.6 percent) and nobody Cleo Lemon (3-of-13 on targets to Chambers). As you can see, none of the quarterbacks were able to hit Chambers, a 27-year-old Pro Bowl No. 1 receiver in 2005, with any consistency. He finished with just 677 receiving yards in 16 starts.

Meanwhile, there was this little white guy named Wes Welker who caught 67 percent of his passes in Miami that year. A forgotten Marty Booker caught 61 percent and ranked 20th in DVOA. This led to furious Internet message board arguments, because how dare anyone suggest these players were better than Chambers despite the massive difference in efficiency in "the same offense" with the same lousy quarterbacks. Except it really wasn't the same offense when you consider what Chambers was asked to do versus the other receivers.

I have to thank the 2006 Dolphins for teaching me about the value of receiver roles and the impact of quarterback play on a receiver's stats. Welker caught a high percentage of passes because he just ran a lot of short, easy routes from the slot that even Harrington could hit at a solid rate. Chambers was frequently running deep routes against the opponent's best cornerback. Back when you could actually look up great stats on a player's Sports Illustrated page, they had a breakdown of targets as overthrown, underthrown, thrown wide, etc. That year I summed up all the targets for which Chambers could not be blamed and found that nearly 50 percent of his targets were completely uncatchable. No wonder he only caught 39 percent overall.

There is no easy number fix to solve the relationship between a quarterback and his receiver. One feeds off the other, but a lot of the evidence points to the quarterback driving more of the relationship. They call it a passing league and not a catching league for a reason. So let's keep the quarterback numbers in mind from yesterday when we look at these receivers.

Again, we thank our charters and ESPN Stats & Information for helping put together this year's game charting project. For the purposes of this study we will be combining as many incompletion categories as possible. The data presented here may differ slightly from what we publish in the future in places like Football Outsiders Almanac 2015.

To save space, there are a few categories that won't be included in tables here.

Hail Mary: Unless it's Aaron Bailey in the 1995 AFC Championship Game, it is pretty hard to rag on a receiver for not coming down with a Hail Mary. It's usually hard to even pick out the intended receiver when there is usually a mass of humanity in the end zone. We charted 14 such incompletions, and no one was listed as the target on multiple plays.

Release slipped: These are rare and awkward plays. Sometimes the quarterback just loses his grip on the ball and it comes out funny. These plays fall somewhere visually between accidental spike and intentional grounding. There were only three of them last season with Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson the guilty parties. For some reason, Roethlisberger's play did not include a target, while Roddy White and Doug Baldwin were each given one for their quarterback's error. Watch this Atlanta play against Green Bay and tell me if you think White deserves a target. This is the problem we run into each season with some plays.

(If you're having trouble finding White, which is really the point, he's lined up wide right and runs a route to the middle.)

Tipped by teammate: Another rare play, this is when a pass hits a teammate who was not the intended receiver. This could be a quarterback hitting his lineman with a pass on accident. This only happened seven times last year, to seven different players. You definitely cannot fault the target here.

Using tables with the same 36 quarterbacks was easy, but we have a lot more receivers to cover and three positions to separate. I used 50 targets as a minimum qualifier, ranking 86 wide receivers, 27 tight ends and 22 running backs. We'll start with the big-picture stat.

Uncatchable Targets

A pass is considered uncatchable for a receiver if it falls into one of the following categories: batted at the line, quarterback hit in motion, overthrown, quarterback release slipped, thrown away, tipped by teammate or underthrown.

2014 WR: Uncatchable Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Uncatchable	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Uncatchable	Pct.
1	Justin Hunter	67	27	40.3%	44	Reggie Wayne	116	28	24.1%
2	Taylor Gabriel	72	28	38.9%	45	Keenan Allen	122	29	23.8%
3	Jeremy Kerley	75	29	38.7%	46	Nate Washington	72	17	23.6%
4	Cecil Shorts	110	41	37.3%	47	Steve Smith	134	31	23.1%
5	Sammy Watkins	128	44	34.4%	48	Jerricho Cotchery	78	18	23.1%
6	Cordarrelle Patterson	67	23	34.3%	49	Harry Douglas	74	17	23.0%
7	Marqise Lee	68	23	33.8%	50	Anquan Boldin	131	30	22.9%
8	Jermaine Kearse	69	23	33.3%	51	Pierre Garcon	105	24	22.9%
9	Brandon Gibson	51	17	33.3%	52	Davante Adams	66	15	22.7%
10	Andre Roberts	73	24	32.9%	53	Brandon Marshall	106	24	22.6%
11	DeSean Jackson	95	31	32.6%	54	Golden Tate	144	32	22.2%
12	Kendall Wright	93	30	32.3%	55	DeAndre Hopkins	127	28	22.0%
13	Andrew Hawkins	112	36	32.1%	56	Eddie Royal	91	20	22.0%
14	Vincent Jackson	142	44	31.0%	57	Terrance Williams	65	14	21.5%
15	Jason Avant	62	19	30.6%	58	James Jones	112	24	21.4%
16	Mike Wallace	115	35	30.4%	59	Doug Baldwin	98	21	21.4%
17	Michael Floyd	99	30	30.3%	60	Chris Hogan	61	13	21.3%
18	A.J. Green	116	35	30.2%	61	Dwayne Bowe	95	20	21.1%
19	Rueben Randle	127	38	29.9%	62	Eric Decker	115	24	20.9%
20	Mike Evans	123	36	29.3%	63	T.Y. Hilton	131	27	20.6%
21	John Brown	103	30	29.1%	64	Randall Cobb	127	26	20.5%
22	Markus Wheaton	86	25	29.1%	65	Mohammed Sanu	98	20	20.4%
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Uncatchable	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Uncatchable	Pct.
23	Charles Johnson	59	17	28.8%	66	Devin Hester	59	12	20.3%
24	Malcom Floyd	92	26	28.3%	67	Stevie Johnson	50	10	20.0%
25	Robert Woods	104	29	27.9%	68	Emmanuel Sanders	141	28	19.9%
26	Allen Hurns	97	27	27.8%	69	Louis Murphy	56	11	19.6%
27	Kelvin Benjamin	145	40	27.6%	70	Preston Parker	56	11	19.6%
28	Kenny Britt	84	23	27.4%	71	Julian Edelman	134	26	19.4%
29	Jeremy Maclin	143	39	27.3%	72	Jarius Wright	62	12	19.4%
30	Torrey Smith	92	25	27.2%	73	Brian Hartline	63	12	19.0%
31	Andre Johnson	147	39	26.5%	74	Julio Jones	163	31	19.0%
32	Andre Holmes	98	26	26.5%	75	Dez Bryant	137	25	18.2%
33	Hakeem Nicks	68	18	26.5%	76	Miles Austin	72	13	18.1%
34	Riley Cooper	95	25	26.3%	77	Jordy Nelson	151	27	17.9%
35	Alshon Jeffery	145	38	26.2%	78	Antonio Brown	181	32	17.7%
36	Demaryius Thomas	184	48	26.1%	79	Jordan Matthews	103	18	17.5%
37	Greg Jennings	92	24	26.1%	80	Roddy White	125	21	16.8%
38	Larry Fitzgerald	104	27	26.0%	81	Odell Beckham	130	21	16.2%
39	Allen Robinson	81	21	25.9%	82	Jarvis Landry	112	17	15.2%
40	Calvin Johnson	128	33	25.8%	83	Marques Colston	99	13	13.1%
41	Percy Harvin	78	20	25.6%	84	Kenny Stills	84	11	13.1%
42	Michael Crabtree	107	27	25.2%	85	Brandin Cooks	69	9	13.0%
43	Brandon LaFell	119	30	25.2%	86	Wes Welker	64	6	9.4%

If Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright are truly not excited by Marcus Mariota, perhaps they should reconsider -- they posted two of the highest 12 uncatchable rates in 2014. For wide receivers, the correlation between uncatchable rate and DVOA was -0.48, which makes plenty of sense. Hard to be an effective receiver when the quarterback just can't get you the ball. These are imperfect stats, because sometimes a pass might be overthrown because the receiver wasn't fast enough to get to a spot. That's why I like to look at teammates here to pick up on where the quarterback is the main issue, or where roles are well defined.

Brian Hoyer had the highest Bad Pass rate (overthrows plus underthrows), and we can see that reflected here in uncatchable rate, with Taylor Gabriel ranking second and Andrew Hawkins ranking third among players with at least 100 targets. Josh Gordon's not in the table, but 38.3 percent of his 47 targets were uncatchable last year. Even with a great receiver, the ball still has to be somewhat accurate. Buffalo thought Sammy Watkins could make EJ Manuel great, but Watkins finished with the second-highest uncatchable rate with at least 100 targets. Robert Woods was 10th by that measure.

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Again, how accurate was Drew Brees last year? Marques Colston, Kenny Stills, and Brandin Cooks had three of the four lowest uncatchable rates, which is incredible given they play different roles in Sean Payton's offense. The proficiency of Tony Romo-to-Dez Bryant (18.2 percent uncatchable), Ben Roethlisberger-to-Antonio Brown (17.7 percent uncatchable), and Aaron Rodgers-to-Jordy Nelson (17.9 percent) also stand out given the role those receivers play in their offenses.

Odell Beckham Jr. continutes to stand out after his historic rookie performance. He had the sixth-lowest uncatchable rate, and Eli Manning is hardly known for his accuracy. Rueben Randle had a much higher uncatchable rate, though his average depth of target was 12.0 yards. That's not to say Beckham just dominated on short throws; his average depth of target was 11.5 yards. We'll get to his catch radius eventually, but the catch of the year against Dallas just showed that Beckham can make the seemingly uncatchable catchable.

The only player with a lower uncatchable rate on 100-plus targets than Beckham was his LSU teammate Jarvis Landry, but they are two very different players. We also may have had another Chambers-Welker situation in Miami with Landry and Mike Wallace last year. Wallace had the fifth-highest uncatchable rate (100-plus targets), but his average target was 13.0 yards downfield. Landry's average target was just 5.5 yards past the line of scrimmage, which explains why he only averaged 9.0 yards per catch. They play the same position, but their roles are vastly different and that should be taken into consideration.

2014 TE: Uncatchable Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Uncatchable	Pct.
1	Jared Cook	99	33	33.3%
2	Vernon Davis	51	15	29.4%
3	Owen Daniels	79	21	26.6%
4	Dwayne Allen	50	13	26.0%
5	Delanie Walker	106	27	25.5%
6	Coby Fleener	92	23	25.0%
7	Zach Ertz	89	22	24.7%
8	Rob Gronkowski	131	32	24.4%
9	Mychal Rivera	99	24	24.2%
10	John Carlson	55	13	23.6%
11	Brent Celek	51	12	23.5%
12	Greg Olsen	123	28	22.8%
13	Jason Witten	90	20	22.2%
14	Levine Toilolo	53	11	20.8%
15	Larry Donnell	92	19	20.7%
16	Charles Clay	84	17	20.2%
17	Julius Thomas	62	12	19.4%
18	Jimmy Graham	124	23	18.5%
19	Antonio Gates	98	17	17.3%
20	Martellus Bennett	128	22	17.2%
21	Scott Chandler	71	12	16.9%
22	Heath Miller	91	14	15.4%
23	Travis Kelce	87	13	14.9%
24	Jordan Reed	65	9	13.8%
25	Niles Paul	52	7	13.5%
26	Jermaine Gresham	79	10	12.7%
27	Jace Amaro	53	5	9.4%

Switching to tight ends, Jared Cook hasn't been the free-agent splash the Rams had hoped for, but his quarterback play has been less than stellar. Speaking of quarterback play, do not be surprised if Owen Daniels (third) and Julius Thomas (17th) switch places here next year on the uncatchable list when you consider the Peyton Manning factor. It's interesting to see Jets rookie Jace Amaro with the lowest uncatchable rate, given that Jeremy Kerley was the third-highest wideout. Throwing to a tight end is often not much different from throwing to a slot receiver. We also see both Washington tight ends in the bottom four despite playing with three quarterbacks.

If there's anything troubling here, it may be that Andrew Luck's two tight ends are both in the top six. 2015 is a contract year for both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen (and T.Y. Hilton), so there will be some decisions to be made there.

2014 RB: Uncatchable Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Uncatchable	Pct.
1	Joique Bell	53	15	28.3%
2	Theo Riddick	50	13	26.0%
3	Darren McFadden	56	14	25.0%
4	Justin Forsett	59	14	23.7%
5	Jamaal Charles	59	13	22.0%
6	Travaris Cadet	51	11	21.6%
7	Shane Vereen	77	16	20.8%
8	Andre Ellington	64	13	20.3%
9	Fred Jackson	90	18	20.0%
10	Eddie Lacy	55	11	20.0%
11	Reggie Bush	56	11	19.6%
12	Darren Sproles	62	12	19.4%
13	Matt Asiata	63	12	19.0%
14	Arian Foster	59	11	18.6%
15	Marcel Reece	59	9	15.3%
16	Giovani Bernard	59	9	15.3%
17	Matt Forte	130	19	14.6%
18	Pierre Thomas	55	8	14.5%
19	Lamar Miller	52	7	13.5%
20	Benny Cunningham	53	7	13.2%
21	Le'Veon Bell	105	13	12.4%
22	DeMarco Murray	64	4	6.3%

Two Detroit running backs on top, but we'll find a reason for that later. Shane Vereen ranks seventh, but the Patriots have added Travaris Cadet from New Orleans as a potential replacement for that receiving back role this year. The Saints also lost Pierre Thomas, who had the fifth-lowest uncatchable rate.

Le'Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray were the two first-team All-Pro running backs in 2014, and they happened to have the two lowest rates of uncatchable passes. Let's see if Darren McFadden (third-highest rate) can benefit from Romo and "the greatest offensive line ever" in Dallas this year on some dumpoffs and screens.

Overthrows & Underthrows

Everything tabulated here for overthrown and underthrown passes relates only to incompletions. Yes, we acknowledge an overthrown or underthrown pass can still be caught, but it's rare.

2014 WR: Overthrown Rate (Min. 50 Targets)						2014 WR: Underthrown Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Overthrows	Pct.		Rk	Receiver	Targets	Underthrows	Pct.
1	Justin Hunter	67	19	28.4%		1	DeSean Jackson	95	12	12.6%
2	Taylor Gabriel	72	19	26.4%		2	Andre Roberts	73	9	12.3%
3	Charles Johnson	59	14	23.7%		3	John Brown	103	12	11.7%
4	Brandon Gibson	51	12	23.5%		4	Michael Floyd	99	11	11.1%
5	Sammy Watkins	128	28	21.9%		5	Brandon LaFell	119	13	10.9%
6	Kenny Britt	84	18	21.4%		6	Davante Adams	66	7	10.6%
7	Hakeem Nicks	68	14	20.6%		7	Riley Cooper	95	10	10.5%
8	Marqise Lee	68	14	20.6%		8	Justin Hunter	67	7	10.4%
9	Vincent Jackson	142	29	20.4%		9	Sammy Watkins	128	13	10.2%
10	Jermaine Kearse	69	14	20.3%		10	Torrey Smith	92	9	9.8%
11	Kelvin Benjamin	145	29	20.0%		11	Cecil Shorts	110	10	9.1%
12	Markus Wheaton	86	17	19.8%		12	Andrew Hawkins	112	10	8.9%
13	Rueben Randle	127	25	19.7%		13	Robert Woods	104	9	8.7%
14	Kendall Wright	93	18	19.4%		14	Brandon Marshall	106	9	8.5%
15	Jason Avant	62	12	19.4%		15	Miles Austin	72	6	8.3%
16	Jeremy Maclin	143	27	18.9%		16	Taylor Gabriel	72	6	8.3%
17	Michael Crabtree	107	20	18.7%		17	Jeremy Kerley	75	6	8.0%
18	Cecil Shorts	110	20	18.2%		18	Jordy Nelson	151	12	7.9%
19	A.J. Green	116	21	18.1%		19	DeAndre Hopkins	127	10	7.9%
20	Jerricho Cotchery	78	14	17.9%		20	Rueben Randle	127	10	7.9%
21	Malcom Floyd	92	16	17.4%		21	Calvin Johnson	128	10	7.8%
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Overthrows	Pct.		Rk	Receiver	Targets	Underthrows	Pct.
22	Andre Holmes	98	17	17.3%		22	A.J. Green	116	9	7.8%
23	Mohammed Sanu	98	17	17.3%		23	Vincent Jackson	142	11	7.7%
24	Larry Fitzgerald	104	18	17.3%		24	Percy Harvin	78	6	7.7%
25	Alshon Jeffery	145	25	17.2%		25	Pierre Garcon	105	8	7.6%
26	Michael Floyd	99	17	17.2%		26	Andre Johnson	147	11	7.5%
27	Devin Hester	59	10	16.9%		27	Allen Robinson	81	6	7.4%
28	Demaryius Thomas	184	31	16.8%		28	Keenan Allen	122	9	7.4%
29	Cordarrelle Patterson	67	11	16.4%		29	Dwayne Bowe	95	7	7.4%
30	Greg Jennings	92	15	16.3%		30	Mike Evans	123	9	7.3%
31	Mike Evans	123	20	16.3%		31	James Jones	112	8	7.1%
32	Andrew Hawkins	112	18	16.1%		32	Doug Baldwin	98	7	7.1%
33	Mike Wallace	115	18	15.7%		33	Preston Parker	56	4	7.1%
34	Calvin Johnson	128	20	15.6%		34	Jeremy Maclin	143	10	7.0%
35	Allen Hurns	97	15	15.5%		35	Mike Wallace	115	8	7.0%
36	Robert Woods	104	16	15.4%		36	Nate Washington	72	5	6.9%
37	Percy Harvin	78	12	15.4%		37	Harry Douglas	74	5	6.8%
38	Nate Washington	72	11	15.3%		38	Chris Hogan	61	4	6.6%
39	Torrey Smith	92	14	15.2%		39	Demaryius Thomas	184	12	6.5%
40	Andre Johnson	147	22	15.0%		40	Kendall Wright	93	6	6.5%
41	Harry Douglas	74	11	14.9%		41	Jason Avant	62	4	6.5%
42	Jeremy Kerley	75	11	14.7%		42	Roddy White	125	8	6.4%
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Overthrows	Pct.		Rk	Receiver	Targets	Underthrows	Pct.
43	Reggie Wayne	116	17	14.7%		43	Randall Cobb	127	8	6.3%
44	Jarius Wright	62	9	14.5%		44	Allen Hurns	97	6	6.2%
45	Steve Smith	134	19	14.2%		45	Terrance Williams	65	4	6.2%
46	Stevie Johnson	50	7	14.0%		46	Antonio Brown	181	11	6.1%
47	Golden Tate	144	20	13.9%		47	Jordan Matthews	103	6	5.8%
48	Andre Roberts	73	10	13.7%		48	Markus Wheaton	86	5	5.8%
49	Allen Robinson	81	11	13.6%		49	Larry Fitzgerald	104	6	5.8%
50	Emmanuel Sanders	141	19	13.5%		50	Emmanuel Sanders	141	8	5.7%
51	Eddie Royal	91	12	13.2%		51	Kelvin Benjamin	145	8	5.5%
52	Dez Bryant	137	18	13.1%		52	Greg Jennings	92	5	5.4%
53	Eric Decker	115	15	13.0%		53	Louis Murphy	56	3	5.4%
54	Anquan Boldin	131	17	13.0%		54	Steve Smith	134	7	5.2%
55	Brian Hartline	63	8	12.7%		55	Brian Hartline	63	3	4.8%
56	Riley Cooper	95	12	12.6%		56	Hakeem Nicks	68	3	4.4%
57	DeSean Jackson	95	12	12.6%		57	Marqise Lee	68	3	4.4%
58	John Brown	103	13	12.6%		58	Eddie Royal	91	4	4.4%
59	Randall Cobb	127	16	12.6%		59	Malcom Floyd	92	4	4.3%
60	Brandon Marshall	106	13	12.3%		60	Jermaine Kearse	69	3	4.3%
61	Brandon LaFell	119	14	11.8%	61	Reggie Wayne	116	5	4.3%
62	Odell Beckham	130	14	10.8%	62	Andre Holmes	98	4	4.1%
63	Terrance Williams	65	7	10.8%	63	Stevie Johnson	50	2	4.0%
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Overthrows	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Underthrows	Pct.
64	Louis Murphy	56	6	10.7%	64	Odell Beckham	130	5	3.8%
65	Preston Parker	56	6	10.7%	65	Anquan Boldin	131	5	3.8%
66	Pierre Garcon	105	11	10.5%	66	Michael Crabtree	107	4	3.7%
67	Julio Jones	163	17	10.4%	67	Julio Jones	163	6	3.7%
68	DeAndre Hopkins	127	13	10.2%	68	Dez Bryant	137	5	3.6%
69	T.Y. Hilton	131	13	9.9%	69	Golden Tate	144	5	3.5%
70	Chris Hogan	61	6	9.8%	70	Alshon Jeffery	145	5	3.4%
71	James Jones	112	11	9.8%	71	Charles Johnson	59	2	3.4%
72	Jordan Matthews	103	10	9.7%	72	Devin Hester	59	2	3.4%
73	Keenan Allen	122	11	9.0%	73	Wes Welker	64	2	3.1%
74	Julian Edelman	134	12	9.0%	74	Mohammed Sanu	98	3	3.1%
75	Antonio Brown	181	16	8.8%	75	T.Y. Hilton	131	4	3.1%
76	Dwayne Bowe	95	8	8.4%	76	Julian Edelman	134	4	3.0%
77	Kenny Stills	84	7	8.3%	77	Cordarrelle Patterson	67	2	3.0%
78	Doug Baldwin	98	8	8.2%	78	Brandin Cooks	69	2	2.9%
79	Marques Colston	99	8	8.1%	79	Eric Decker	115	3	2.6%
80	Roddy White	125	10	8.0%	80	Jerricho Cotchery	78	2	2.6%
81	Jordy Nelson	151	12	7.9%	81	Kenny Britt	84	2	2.4%
82	Jarvis Landry	112	8	7.1%	82	Marques Colston	99	2	2.0%
83	Wes Welker	64	4	6.3%	83	Brandon Gibson	51	1	2.0%
84	Davante Adams	66	4	6.1%	84	Jarius Wright	62	1	1.6%
85	Miles Austin	72	3	4.2%	85	Jarvis Landry	112	1	0.9%
86	Brandin Cooks	69	2	2.9%	86	Kenny Stills	84	0	0.0%

Sammy Watkins relied heavily on YAC in college, but Buffalo used him, often unsuccessfully, as a deep threat (average target: 13.3 yards). Watkins and Justin Hunter are the only wideouts to rank in the top 10 in both overthrow and underthrow rates. Pairs of teammates from Washington and Arizona lead the underthrown table, though Pierre Garcon and Larry Fitzgerald are not involved.

The two receivers with the lowest underthrown rate are 2015 teammates: Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills. As a testament to Brees' accuracy, he never underthrew the deep threat Stills last year. Mike Wallace was underthrown eight times by Ryan Tannehill, so Stills may have to adjust to lesser throws in the way Wallace never really did going from Pittsburgh to Miami. I'd also bet Wallace will see his underthrows go down, but overthrows (18 last year) go up with Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota. You can see Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings had 26 overthrows on just 159 targets. In Kansas City, Jeremy Maclin will likely see the opposite effect with Alex Smith: overthrows down, underthrows up.

2014 TE: Overthrown Rate (Min. 50 Targets)					2014 TE: Underthrown Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Overthrows	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Underthrows	Pct.
1	Dwayne Allen	50	9	18.0%	1	Vernon Davis	51	6	11.8%
2	Zach Ertz	89	16	18.0%	2	Rob Gronkowski	131	14	10.7%
3	Jason Witten	90	16	17.8%	3	Jared Cook	99	9	9.1%
4	Jared Cook	99	16	16.2%	4	Owen Daniels	79	6	7.6%
5	Greg Olsen	123	19	15.4%	5	Scott Chandler	71	5	7.0%
6	Coby Fleener	92	14	15.2%	6	Martellus Bennett	128	9	7.0%
7	Owen Daniels	79	12	15.2%	7	Coby Fleener	92	6	6.5%
8	Delanie Walker	106	15	14.2%	8	Jordan Reed	65	4	6.2%
9	Brent Celek	51	7	13.7%	9	Dwayne Allen	50	3	6.0%
10	Charles Clay	84	11	13.1%	10	Niles Paul	52	3	5.8%
11	Mychal Rivera	99	12	12.1%	11	Jimmy Graham	124	7	5.6%
12	Vernon Davis	51	6	11.8%	12	John Carlson	55	3	5.5%
13	Levine Toilolo	53	6	11.3%	13	Larry Donnell	92	5	5.4%
14	Jimmy Graham	124	14	11.3%	14	Mychal Rivera	99	5	5.1%
15	Julius Thomas	62	7	11.3%	15	Greg Olsen	123	6	4.9%
16	Antonio Gates	98	11	11.2%	16	Zach Ertz	89	4	4.5%
17	Larry Donnell	92	10	10.9%	17	Antonio Gates	98	4	4.1%
18	Rob Gronkowski	131	14	10.7%	18	Delanie Walker	106	4	3.8%
19	John Carlson	55	5	9.1%	19	Levine Toilolo	53	2	3.8%
20	Heath Miller	91	8	8.8%	20	Jason Witten	90	3	3.3%
21	Jordan Reed	65	5	7.7%	21	Heath Miller	91	3	3.3%
22	Jermaine Gresham	79	6	7.6%	22	Julius Thomas	62	2	3.2%
23	Martellus Bennett	128	9	7.0%	23	Travis Kelce	87	2	2.3%
24	Travis Kelce	87	6	6.9%	24	Brent Celek	51	1	2.0%
25	Niles Paul	52	3	5.8%	25	Jace Amaro	53	1	1.9%
26	Jace Amaro	53	3	5.7%	26	Jermaine Gresham	79	1	1.3%
27	Scott Chandler	71	3	4.2%	27	Charles Clay	84	1	1.2%

Again, both Indianapolis tight ends rank in the top 10 for overthrows and underthrows alike. Fleener (average target: 10.6 yards) is more of a slot receiver and Allen (average target: 8.9 yards) is better for blocking and red zone.

Scott Chandler has joined the Patriots and has a good shot to rank at the bottom next year playing with Tom Brady. For underthrows, both current New England tight ends ranked in the top five last year.

Colin Kaepernick managed to miss Vernon Davis six times too far and six times too short in what was really a lost season for the tight end. Jared Cook ranked in the top four in both overthrow and underthrow rates. Nick Foles may not help with the overthrows based on the way he was missing open receivers in Philadelphia last year.

2014 RB: Overthrown Rate (Min. 50 Targets)					2014 RB: Underthrown Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Overthrows	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Underthrows	Pct.
1	Theo Riddick	50	6	12.0%	1	Joique Bell	53	6	11.3%
2	Justin Forsett	59	7	11.9%	2	Reggie Bush	56	6	10.7%
3	Darren Sproles	62	7	11.3%	3	Fred Jackson	90	8	8.9%
4	Matt Asiata	63	7	11.1%	4	Justin Forsett	59	5	8.5%
5	Andre Ellington	64	6	9.4%	5	Theo Riddick	50	4	8.0%
6	Shane Vereen	77	7	9.1%	6	Travaris Cadet	51	4	7.8%
7	Joique Bell	53	4	7.5%	7	Shane Vereen	77	5	6.5%
8	Arian Foster	59	4	6.8%	8	Andre Ellington	64	4	6.3%
9	Giovani Bernard	59	4	6.8%	9	Eddie Lacy	55	3	5.5%
10	Jamaal Charles	59	4	6.8%	10	Marcel Reece	59	3	5.1%
11	Lamar Miller	52	3	5.8%	11	Jamaal Charles	59	3	5.1%
12	Benny Cunningham	53	3	5.7%	12	Darren Sproles	62	3	4.8%
13	Fred Jackson	90	5	5.6%	13	Arian Foster	59	2	3.4%
14	Eddie Lacy	55	3	5.5%	14	Matt Asiata	63	2	3.2%
15	Le'Veon Bell	105	5	4.8%	15	Matt Forte	130	3	2.3%
16	Pierre Thomas	55	2	3.6%	16	Le'Veon Bell	105	2	1.9%
17	Darren McFadden	56	2	3.6%	17	Pierre Thomas	55	1	1.8%
18	Reggie Bush	56	2	3.6%	18	Darren McFadden	56	1	1.8%
19	Marcel Reece	59	2	3.4%	19	DeMarco Murray	64	0	0.0%
20	Matt Forte	130	3	2.3%	20	Giovani Bernard	59	0	0.0%
21	Travaris Cadet	51	1	2.0%	21	Benny Cunningham	53	0	0.0%
22	DeMarco Murray	64	1	1.6%	22	Lamar Miller	52	0	0.0%

Detroit pulled off a rare feat of having three running backs with at least 50 targets (Reggie Bush, Joique Bell, and Theo Riddick). All three ranked in the top five for underthrown rate, so Matthew Stafford had some real accuracy issues when checking down to his backs. Riddick also had the highest overthrown rate.

Justin Forsett also ranked in the top four in both tables, which helps explain why he was 55th in receiving DYAR.

A Bit of the Randomness

Instead of using tables, we'll just talk about some categories of incompletions that are not very frequent, but we chart them and need to share this data somewhere.

Batted Down at the Line: I understand that it's usually clear where the quarterback wants to throw on these plays, but I do not believe the receiver should get dinged for a pass that never gets through the trenches. Cecil Shorts had the highest uncatchable rate for any wide receiver with at least 100 targets and Blake Bortles had the highest rate of passes batted at the line, so it's no surprise to see Shorts tie for the league lead with seven batted passes as the intended target. Jeremy Kerley also had seven, but had the highest batted rate (9.3 percent) in the league. Cordarrelle Patterson (9.0 percent) was the only other wideout above 6.5 percent. Shorts (6.4 percent) ranked third in rate, followed by teammate Marqise Lee (5.9 percent), so this is really a Bortles/offensive line issue.

Ryan Tannehill only ranked 19th in batted pass rate, but his wide receivers paid dearly for it. Brandon Gibson (5.9 percent), Mike Wallace (5.2 percent) and Jarvis Landry (4.5 percent) all ranked in the top 10 for highest batted rate. Running back Lamar Miller (3.8 percent) had the third-highest batted rate for running backs. On the flip side were the Eagles. Wide receivers Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper, and Jordan Matthews and tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek were never the targets of a batted pass on a combined 481 plays. Maybe Miami offensive coordinator Bill Lazor needs to practice preventing these plays the way the Eagles do under Chip Kelly.

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Hit in Motion: This is when the quarterback is hit during his throwing motion. Any hit after the ball was released does not count. For the receiver, this basically means a bad pass is coming in your general vicinity. Tampa Bay struggled the most with this, so it's no surprise to see running back Bobby Rainey have a league-high four of these targets. OK, maybe it's a little of a surprise to see one of the unheralded backs lead the league, but Josh McCown and Mike Glennon took a whopping last year. Tampa Bay's rookie tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins was one of four players with three HIM targets. The others played with Jay Cutler (Alshon Jeffery) and Andrew Luck (T.Y. Hilton), which makes sense, but the surprising one is Julian Edelman with Tom Brady. Only one of Edelman's targets came in the season's first month when the Patriots were trying to get on track.

Miscommunication: Obviously a very subjective call, we try to note when there was confusion between the quarterback and his receiver. Would you believe Jordy Nelson led all receivers with six miscommunication targets? Rookie Davante Adams had four, which is how MVP Aaron Rodgers finished with 10 such plays. The only other players with four miscommunication targets were Rob Gronkowski (another surprise), Markus Wheaton, and Miles Austin. The only surprise to Pittsburgh fans is that Wheaton did not have more given how often he looked like he was meeting Ben Roethlisberger for the first time on game day last year.

Out of Bounds: This is otherwise known as the "good job, good effort" incompletion. When a receiver catches a ball out of bounds, we add it to this category. DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans had four such plays and no other receiver had more than two. Hopkins and Evans also appear on our "receivers we really hope end up with a great quarterback someday" list. Can it be Jameis Winston? Vincent Jackson also had two catches out of bounds last year.

Receiver Tripped: Trips happen. Yesterday, we mentioned Joe Flacco had a league-high five of these incompletions last year while no other passer had more than two. The reason is Torrey Smith alone had three, including two in the same quarter in Houston (Week 16). Smith slipped, causing an interception, and later pulled up lame on a play that might need its own category ("Injured"). Sammy Watkins and Andre Johnson were the only other receivers with more than one trip.

Throwaways: I sort of understand attaching a target to throwaways, but not every time. Generally, it's acknowledging the quarterback did not find an open receiver, so he threw the ball away to a safe place. A lot of the time that's a throw well over the head of a receiver who wasn't open enough to throw to in the field of play. It's a defensive win, but it is also an uncatchable target.

Believe it or not, Giants running back Andre Williams had a league-high nine throwaway targets. That helps explain how a running back could only catch 18 of his 37 targets at a position that frequently exceeds 67 percent in catch rate. The other leaders in throwaways were Keenan Allen (seven), Matt Forte (seven), Anquan Boldin (six), and Darren McFadden (five).

Dropped and Defensed

Our last section looks at drops and passes defensed. Defensed is a very gray area for the blame game. Some passes are defensed because the receiver lost the one-on-one battle, but other times the quarterback throws a poor pass that should have been picked off. Drops are unofficial NFL stats because of the subjectivity. As a charter, I like to use the standard of getting two hands on the ball for a catch. If a guy makes a one-handed stab at a pass, that's not a drop. We came up with 791 drops for the 2014 season, but I'm sure you can hand this project over to any other group and they would find different results.

For the 2014 season, we asked charters to additionally mark plays as "Dropped/Defensed" when the receiver drops the ball specifically because of defender contact (think Sterling Moore vs. Lee Evans). The next tables include Dropped/Defensed plays in the sum of total drops, rather than in the sum of passes defensed. However, we should point out that other stat services do not count balls like this as dropped passes, and the totals for dropped passes in Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 will not count the "Dropped/Defensed" plays as dropped passes.

2014 WR: Defensed Rate (Min. 50 Targets)						2014 WR: Drop Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Defensed	Pct.		Rk	Receiver	Targets	Drops	Pct.
1	Marques Colston	99	18	18.2%		1	Louis Murphy	56	6	10.7%
2	John Brown	103	18	17.5%		2	Julian Edelman	134	11	8.2%
3	Michael Floyd	99	17	17.2%		3	Mohammed Sanu	98	8	8.2%
4	Andre Holmes	98	15	15.3%		4	Marques Colston	99	8	8.1%
5	Justin Hunter	67	10	14.9%		5	Brandon Gibson	51	4	7.8%
6	Vincent Jackson	142	21	14.8%		6	Reggie Wayne	116	9	7.8%
7	Mohammed Sanu	98	14	14.3%		7	Davante Adams	66	5	7.6%
8	Louis Murphy	56	8	14.3%		8	Dwayne Bowe	95	7	7.4%
9	Calvin Johnson	128	18	14.1%		9	Marqise Lee	68	5	7.4%
10	Terrance Williams	65	9	13.8%		10	Taylor Gabriel	72	5	6.9%
11	Kelvin Benjamin	145	20	13.8%		11	Andre Roberts	73	5	6.8%
12	Roddy White	125	17	13.6%		12	Brian Hartline	63	4	6.3%
13	Charles Johnson	59	8	13.6%		13	Allen Hurns	97	6	6.2%
14	Cordarrelle Patterson	67	9	13.4%		14	Andre Holmes	98	6	6.1%
15	Julio Jones	163	21	12.9%		15	Anquan Boldin	131	8	6.1%
16	Brian Hartline	63	8	12.7%		16	Brandon Marshall	106	6	5.7%
17	Allen Robinson	81	10	12.3%		17	Nate Washington	72	4	5.6%
18	Reggie Wayne	116	14	12.1%		18	Miles Austin	72	4	5.6%
19	Devin Hester	59	7	11.9%		19	Kelvin Benjamin	145	8	5.5%
20	DeAndre Hopkins	127	15	11.8%		20	Rueben Randle	127	7	5.5%
21	Hakeem Nicks	68	8	11.8%		21	Torrey Smith	92	5	5.4%
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Defensed	Pct.		Rk	Receiver	Targets	Drops	Pct.
22	Dez Bryant	137	16	11.7%		22	T.Y. Hilton	131	7	5.3%
23	Jordan Matthews	103	12	11.7%		23	Eric Decker	115	6	5.2%
24	Odell Beckham	130	15	11.5%		24	Jason Avant	62	3	4.8%
25	Jerricho Cotchery	78	9	11.5%		25	Jarius Wright	62	3	4.8%
26	Keenan Allen	122	14	11.5%		26	Robert Woods	104	5	4.8%
27	Allen Hurns	97	11	11.3%		27	Andre Johnson	147	7	4.8%
28	Brandon Marshall	106	12	11.3%		28	Kenny Stills	84	4	4.8%
29	Nate Washington	72	8	11.1%		29	Wes Welker	64	3	4.7%
30	Cecil Shorts	110	12	10.9%		30	Michael Crabtree	107	5	4.7%
31	Malcom Floyd	92	10	10.9%		31	Steve Smith	134	6	4.5%
32	Kenny Britt	84	9	10.7%		32	Hakeem Nicks	68	3	4.4%
33	Preston Parker	56	6	10.7%		33	Demaryius Thomas	184	8	4.3%
34	Larry Fitzgerald	104	11	10.6%		34	Mike Wallace	115	5	4.3%
35	Riley Cooper	95	10	10.5%		35	Greg Jennings	92	4	4.3%
36	Pierre Garcon	105	11	10.5%		36	Jermaine Kearse	69	3	4.3%
37	Steve Smith	134	14	10.4%		37	Mike Evans	123	5	4.1%
38	Sammy Watkins	128	13	10.2%		38	Roddy White	125	5	4.0%
39	T.Y. Hilton	131	13	9.9%		39	Jeremy Kerley	75	3	4.0%
40	Alshon Jeffery	145	14	9.7%		40	Jordan Matthews	103	4	3.9%
41	Andre Roberts	73	7	9.6%		41	Dez Bryant	137	5	3.6%
42	Andre Johnson	147	14	9.5%		42	Cecil Shorts	110	4	3.6%
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Defensed	Pct.		Rk	Receiver	Targets	Drops	Pct.
43	Wes Welker	64	6	9.4%		43	Andrew Hawkins	112	4	3.6%
44	Jeremy Maclin	143	13	9.1%		44	Alshon Jeffery	145	5	3.4%
45	Demaryius Thomas	184	16	8.7%		45	Charles Johnson	59	2	3.4%
46	Eric Decker	115	10	8.7%		46	Devin Hester	59	2	3.4%
47	Torrey Smith	92	8	8.7%		47	Eddie Royal	91	3	3.3%
48	Brandin Cooks	69	6	8.7%		48	Chris Hogan	61	2	3.3%
49	Jordy Nelson	151	13	8.6%		49	Terrance Williams	65	2	3.1%
50	Chris Hogan	61	5	8.2%		50	Doug Baldwin	98	3	3.1%
51	Jason Avant	62	5	8.1%		51	Michael Floyd	99	3	3.0%
52	James Jones	112	9	8.0%		52	Justin Hunter	67	2	3.0%
53	Stevie Johnson	50	4	8.0%		53	Cordarrelle Patterson	67	2	3.0%
54	Brandon LaFell	119	9	7.6%		54	John Brown	103	3	2.9%
55	DeSean Jackson	95	7	7.4%		55	Antonio Brown	181	5	2.8%
56	Dwayne Bowe	95	7	7.4%		56	Jarvis Landry	112	3	2.7%
57	Jermaine Kearse	69	5	7.2%		57	Jordy Nelson	151	4	2.6%
58	Antonio Brown	181	13	7.2%		58	Jerricho Cotchery	78	2	2.6%
59	Andrew Hawkins	112	8	7.1%		59	Percy Harvin	78	2	2.6%
60	Golden Tate	144	10	6.9%		60	Brandon LaFell	119	3	2.5%
61	Harry Douglas	74	5	6.8%	61	Allen Robinson	81	2	2.5%
62	Jeremy Kerley	75	5	6.7%	62	Julio Jones	163	4	2.5%
63	Michael Crabtree	107	7	6.5%	63	Kenny Britt	84	2	2.4%
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Defensed	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Drops	Pct.
64	Rueben Randle	127	8	6.3%	64	Calvin Johnson	128	3	2.3%
65	Randall Cobb	127	8	6.3%	65	Riley Cooper	95	2	2.1%
66	Jarvis Landry	112	7	6.3%	66	Stevie Johnson	50	1	2.0%
67	Doug Baldwin	98	6	6.1%	67	Larry Fitzgerald	104	2	1.9%
68	Anquan Boldin	131	8	6.1%	68	James Jones	112	2	1.8%
69	A.J. Green	116	7	6.0%	69	Preston Parker	56	1	1.8%
70	Emmanuel Sanders	141	8	5.7%	70	A.J. Green	116	2	1.7%
71	Miles Austin	72	4	5.6%	71	DeAndre Hopkins	127	2	1.6%
72	Eddie Royal	91	5	5.5%	72	Randall Cobb	127	2	1.6%
73	Mike Wallace	115	6	5.2%	73	Sammy Watkins	128	2	1.6%
74	Percy Harvin	78	4	5.1%	74	Odell Beckham	130	2	1.5%
75	Mike Evans	123	6	4.9%	75	Brandin Cooks	69	1	1.4%
76	Robert Woods	104	5	4.8%	76	Emmanuel Sanders	141	2	1.4%
77	Kenny Stills	84	4	4.8%	77	Vincent Jackson	142	2	1.4%
78	Marqise Lee	68	3	4.4%	78	Jeremy Maclin	143	2	1.4%
79	Greg Jennings	92	4	4.3%	79	Golden Tate	144	2	1.4%
80	Taylor Gabriel	72	3	4.2%	80	Harry Douglas	74	1	1.4%
81	Kendall Wright	93	3	3.2%	81	Markus Wheaton	86	1	1.2%
82	Jarius Wright	62	2	3.2%	82	Malcom Floyd	92	1	1.1%
83	Davante Adams	66	2	3.0%	83	Kendall Wright	93	1	1.1%
84	Markus Wheaton	86	2	2.3%	84	DeSean Jackson	95	1	1.1%
85	Julian Edelman	134	3	2.2%	85	Keenan Allen	122	1	0.8%
86	Brandon Gibson	51	1	2.0%	86	Pierre Garcon	105	0	0.0%

Again, if we think of passes defensed as a "he put the ball in play" type of stat, then Drew Brees gave Marques Colston a ton of chances for catches last year. Most of the receivers high in defensed rate were not on good passing offenses, though there's really no obvious grouping of receiver types at the top. There are slot guys, slow deep threats, speedsters, possession receivers, etc. The same thing is true about roles at the bottom of the list, though Gibson is yet another high-catch-rate slot receiver to join the Patriots. But we see Taylor Gabriel with the seventh-lowest defensed rate despite previous tables showing he was second in overthrows and uncatchable passes.

Did you expect Julian Edelman to lead the league with 11 drops, or that Pierre Garcon would be the only wideout without one (minimum 50 targets)? That happened. Like Wes Welker before him, Edelman had some drop issues, which can happen in a high-volume attack when you get a lot of short passes and start thinking about turning upfield before securing the ball. Only one of Edelman's drops was Dropped/Defensed, which is what Kam Chancellor wishes he produced with his hit in the Super Bowl on third-and-14. Edelman hung onto that one to start New England's comeback.

Rueben Randle and Taylor Gabriel led the league with three Dropped/Defensed passes. Emmanuel Sanders had zero regular drops, but two Dropped/Defensed plays. I expected more of these plays to be charted, but this was the first season we kept track of them, and new things added to charting will sometimes be tracked inconsistently in the first year as charters get used to looking for them.

2014 TE: Defensed Rate (Min. 50 Targets)					2014 TE: Drop Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Defensed	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Drops	Pct.
1	Levine Toilolo	53	6	11.3%	1	Jace Amaro	53	7	13.2%
2	Delanie Walker	106	11	10.4%	2	John Carlson	55	6	10.9%
3	Vernon Davis	51	5	9.8%	3	Scott Chandler	71	6	8.5%
4	Antonio Gates	98	9	9.2%	4	Dwayne Allen	50	4	8.0%
5	Coby Fleener	92	8	8.7%	5	Vernon Davis	51	4	7.8%
6	Jared Cook	99	8	8.1%	6	Coby Fleener	92	7	7.6%
7	Mychal Rivera	99	8	8.1%	7	Levine Toilolo	53	4	7.5%
8	Julius Thomas	62	5	8.1%	8	Mychal Rivera	99	7	7.1%
9	Zach Ertz	89	7	7.9%	9	Martellus Bennett	128	8	6.3%
10	Brent Celek	51	4	7.8%	10	Brent Celek	51	3	5.9%
11	Jordan Reed	65	5	7.7%	11	Niles Paul	52	3	5.8%
12	Greg Olsen	123	9	7.3%	12	Jimmy Graham	124	7	5.6%
13	Jimmy Graham	124	9	7.3%	13	Rob Gronkowski	131	7	5.3%
14	Charles Clay	84	6	7.1%	14	Travis Kelce	87	4	4.6%
15	Jermaine Gresham	79	5	6.3%	15	Heath Miller	91	4	4.4%
16	Martellus Bennett	128	8	6.3%	16	Owen Daniels	79	3	3.8%
17	Dwayne Allen	50	3	6.0%	17	Charles Clay	84	3	3.6%
18	Scott Chandler	71	4	5.6%	18	Jason Witten	90	3	3.3%
19	Heath Miller	91	5	5.5%	19	Larry Donnell	92	3	3.3%
20	John Carlson	55	3	5.5%	20	Jared Cook	99	3	3.0%
21	Owen Daniels	79	4	5.1%	21	Delanie Walker	106	3	2.8%
22	Rob Gronkowski	131	6	4.6%	22	Jermaine Gresham	79	2	2.5%
23	Larry Donnell	92	4	4.3%	23	Zach Ertz	89	2	2.2%
24	Niles Paul	52	2	3.8%	24	Antonio Gates	98	2	2.0%
25	Jace Amaro	53	2	3.8%	25	Julius Thomas	62	1	1.6%
26	Travis Kelce	87	2	2.3%	26	Jordan Reed	65	1	1.5%
27	Jason Witten	90	2	2.2%	27	Greg Olsen	123	1	0.8%

Levine Toilolo and separation don't go together well, so he led tight ends in defensed rate in his first attempt to replace Tony Gonzalez. Rookie Jace Amaro may have had the lowest uncatchable rate, but he wasted some good passes with the highest drop rate. John Carlson was second and he just retired this week.

Fleener and Allen rank high again for the Colts, but this isn't an area where we can blame Andrew Luck. The Colts led the league in dropped passes last year.

2014 RB: Defensed Rate (Min. 50 Targets)					2014 RB: Drop Rate (Min. 50 Targets)
Rk	Receiver	Targets	Defensed	Pct.	Rk	Receiver	Targets	Drops	Pct.
1	Marcel Reece	59	6	10.2%	1	Lamar Miller	52	6	11.5%
2	Darren Sproles	62	4	6.5%	2	Matt Asiata	63	7	11.1%
3	Arian Foster	59	3	5.1%	3	Marcel Reece	59	6	10.2%
4	Fred Jackson	90	4	4.4%	4	Jamaal Charles	59	6	10.2%
5	Shane Vereen	77	3	3.9%	5	Andre Ellington	64	5	7.8%
6	Le'Veon Bell	105	4	3.8%	6	Joique Bell	53	4	7.5%
7	Darren McFadden	56	2	3.6%	7	Arian Foster	59	4	6.8%
8	Reggie Bush	56	2	3.6%	8	Giovani Bernard	59	4	6.8%
9	Giovani Bernard	59	2	3.4%	9	Darren Sproles	62	4	6.5%
10	Matt Forte	130	4	3.1%	10	Shane Vereen	77	4	5.2%
11	Theo Riddick	50	1	2.0%	11	DeMarco Murray	64	3	4.7%
12	Travaris Cadet	51	1	2.0%	12	Theo Riddick	50	2	4.0%
13	Lamar Miller	52	1	1.9%	13	Matt Forte	130	5	3.8%
14	Benny Cunningham	53	1	1.9%	14	Le'Veon Bell	105	4	3.8%
15	Pierre Thomas	55	1	1.8%	15	Reggie Bush	56	2	3.6%
16	Eddie Lacy	55	1	1.8%	16	Fred Jackson	90	2	2.2%
17	Andre Ellington	64	0	0.0%	17	Travaris Cadet	51	1	2.0%
18	DeMarco Murray	64	0	0.0%	18	Pierre Thomas	55	1	1.8%
19	Matt Asiata	63	0	0.0%	19	Eddie Lacy	55	1	1.8%
20	Jamaal Charles	59	0	0.0%	20	Darren McFadden	56	1	1.8%
21	Justin Forsett	59	0	0.0%	21	Justin Forsett	59	1	1.7%
22	Joique Bell	53	0	0.0%	22	Benny Cunningham	53	0	0.0%

Benny Cunningham getting 52 targets (third on the Rams) may be a bigger surprise than Benny Cunningham having zero drops. Oakland fullback Marcel Reece may not be a big fan of Derek Carr's checkdowns. Reece led all running backs in highest defensed rate, and he might have the highest adjusted drop rate if we include a ridiculous play against St. Louis where he was blown up and offensive lineman Gabe Jackson caught the ball.

Alas, that was just a crazy completion, but we hope to have shed some light on 2014 in this study of incompletions.

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Comments

30 comments, Last at 12 May 2015, 12:15pm

#1 by andrew // May 09, 2015 - 2:46pm

Huh, maybe Coradelle Patterson wasn't as bad last year as it was commonly believed...

#2 by lightsout85 // May 09, 2015 - 3:38pm

Probably a little of both. Backyard Banter's WR-charting project has his success% (of getting open) as a good deal below league average (vs man & zone) - albeit, not a big sample size. He's still more of an athletic "weapon" than a more polished WR at this point.

#3 by mitchellralph // May 09, 2015 - 5:25pm

Is there any way you could add a section into this that shows these stats by QB? I'd like to see which QB's threw the most/least uncatchable passes, suffered from the most drops, etc

#4 by Scott Kacsmar // May 09, 2015 - 8:16pm

Did you check out part I on passers? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-passers

I could group things by passer and receiver, but that'd be harder to present in a tidy manner. I know if I ever do this again, one thing I want to do is watch the defensed plays to get a better idea of what's going on there.

#13 by RickD // May 10, 2015 - 1:36am

For a lot of teams there's only one passer. But I am curious about DeSean Jackson's 12 underthrows, given that three different QBs started games for the Redskins last year.

#14 by mitchellralph // May 10, 2015 - 1:58am

I did not see that article. Thank you sir!

#5 by rich006 // May 09, 2015 - 9:37pm

A receiver with a lot of defensed passes could be poor at making contested catches, or he could be so trusted by his QB that the QB doesn't hesitate to make contested throws--so we have a stat that says either bad or good things about the receiver. In the case of Colston, it's primarily the latter, but last year also a bit of the former.

#22 by Thomas_beardown // May 11, 2015 - 12:51pm

None of the Bears receivers are high on the defensed list. Which is evidence against poor decision making by a QB will really inflate things.

#6 by TheSlinger // May 09, 2015 - 10:12pm

Would've liked to see a column for the player's team so I can quickly check out my team's receivers without having to search individually by each name.

#7 by thok // May 09, 2015 - 11:00pm

"Colin Kaepernick managed to miss Vernon Davis six times too far and six times too short in what was really a lost season for the tight end."

Given that Vernon Davis ranked poorly among tight ends in every single category discussed, and that Kaepernick was actually average or above average in some of those categories, I don't think Kaepernick was the sole reason for Davis's "lost season". (In particular, the underthrown passes are almost certainly Davis's fault, given that neither Boldin nor Crabtree nor Kaepernick have high underthrown rates.)

#10 by chemical burn // May 09, 2015 - 11:22pm

How do 49er's fans feel about Kaepernick these days? As an outsiders, my feeling is that whole team deserves a mulligan for 2014 and no one should be judged on their performance that season alone. On the other hand, he looked DIRE by season's end. On the third hand, there are positives throughout his numbers in these last two charts and some individual players (like Davis) certainly appear to have not been doing him any favors...

#8 by chemical burn // May 09, 2015 - 11:20pm

Man, these numbers really make DeSean Jackson look like he has a case for arguing he was the best wr in the league last year. He was 6th in DVOA to begin with despite playing in a totally chaotic environment as far as the QB was concerned. He's at the very bottom of the league in terms of drops (3rd to last), very near the top in terms of uncatchable balls (11th) and #1 in terms of under-thrown balls (which matches up with the idea that he would get open so fast deep that his mediocre, short-armed QB's literally couldn't get the ball out to him.)

No one ahead of him in DVOA (Bryant, T. Williams, Stills, Sanders and Cobb) faced anything in terms of similar adversity. The lowest rated QB any of those players played with was Drew freakin' Brees at 7th in DVOA while the best QB DJax caught passes from was Kirk freakin' Cousin at 15th in DVOA. The other wr's all dropped more passes and weren't over/under-thrown nearly as much.

Those other guys all had great support at the WR position: Cobb/Nelson is 1st/8th in DVOA, Bryant/Williams is 5th/2nd, Still/Colston is 3rd/16th and the worst of the group is Sanders/Thomas at 4th/29th (but 3rd/8th in DYAR.) Andre Roberts was 73rd. Pierre Garcon was 75th. DJax was basically out there doing it himself with an assist from Niles Paul.

I think these numbers make an interesting case that Jackson was the best wr in the league last year...

#15 by duh // May 10, 2015 - 2:02pm

Man looking through the splits Washington's offense was really dysfunctional on 3rd down lat year.

Jackson averaged 22+ YPC on 1st down 23+ YPC on 2nd down and 9.9 YPC on 3rd down.
If you look at it by target it was 15.7, 13.9 and 4.0

Garcon shows a similar pattern, 11.4,11.4 and 6.8 YPC and by target 8.5, 8.2, and 2.1!!

I think it is the offense and not the QB as if I look at other teams with poor to meh QBing (Ten, Hou, Buf, Oak) I don't see anything approaching that level of difference.

#17 by chemical burn // May 10, 2015 - 11:58pm

Wow - that's really something. With Jackson, he makes his paycheck beating the safety deep on a double move on early down PA, so I'm not entirely surprised his third down numbers are worse. He kills you if they safety hesitates for even a second to get into position on bracket coverage.

Plus, if you focus coverage on him, you can make him a non-factor in a way you can't with, say, Dez Bryant (which I think explains Bryant's increased "passes defensed" numbers - Romo trusts him to battle for contested balls in a way that no one would dream of doing with Jackson.) But as you point out, the numbers are team-wide. Didn't Griffin and Cousins in general throw short a notably high amount?

Do you think Washington have a semi-functional running game (in comparison to Oakland, TB or Buffalo - their rush offense was better than even Houston's) was a factor - like they got into more third and short situations than those other poorly QB'd teams? Was their third down DVOA notably worse - were the short passes totally ineffective is what I'm wondering? It might not necessarily have been dysfunctional to go for short, easy completions...

#18 by Vincent Verhei // May 11, 2015 - 12:36am

Stumbled across this a few weeks ago and I don't think I'll have time to do a full write-up before the book comes out, so I might as well mention it here: The 2014 Washington Redskins set a record for biggest dropoff from Overall Offense DVOA (-11.7%) to Third Down Offense DVOA (-62.6%). All three QBs had enormous third-down declines, so it wasn't just a "what's wrong with RG3?" thing.

#21 by chemical burn // May 11, 2015 - 2:05am

That's crazy. What is the explanation?! If you single out just passing DVOA does it get worse? Those YPC numbers suggest it might!

#23 by duh // May 11, 2015 - 12:52pm

Vince,
Thanks!

Just cause it is so mind numbing ... on 3rd down the Redskins appear to have run 200 plays and made 48 1st downs and scored 3 TDs, on the other hand they had 23 sacks, 10 TOs,(6 int/4 fum)and 11 other plays that gained 0 yards or less.

#24 by Thomas_beardown // May 11, 2015 - 12:53pm

I'd be curious to see how this correlates with distance to go on 3rd down. I know DVOA is supposed to account for this, but 3rd down still tends to be a pass/fail situation compared to 1st and 2nd.

#26 by duh // May 11, 2015 - 1:48pm

You start to get into a little bit of small sample size theater when breaking it down but I'd say they were:

Terrible on 3rd and short( 3rd & 1-4)below league average in conversion rate (both rushing and passing), QB rating, Y/A, AY/A

Average to maybe a little above average on 3rd and medium (3rd and 4-9)

Beyond description awful on 3rd and long (3rd and 10+) On 66 plays they converted just 5 1st downs, had 10 sacks, 3 INTs and 4 fumbles.

On 3rd and long they just should have punted.

Actually, I'll amend that slightly, if they were 'in FG range' they should have attempted a FG, otherwise they should have punted.

#27 by Scott Kacsmar // May 11, 2015 - 1:49pm

McCoy threw short of the sticks too often on 3rd down. His Average Minus Need Differential (AMND) was -2.03, which is very Alex Smith like. RG3 was -0.13 and Cousins was +0.71. Cousins also had the higher conversion rate.

#29 by Vincent Verhei // May 12, 2015 - 1:41am

Third-and-short (1 to 3 yards to go): Next to last. Only New Orleans was worse.

Third-and-medium (4 to 6 yards to go): 29th. Tennessee, Buffalo, and Jacksonville were worse.

Third-and-long: Dead last at -144.3%. Tennessee was next to last at -65.3%, which means they were actually closer to No. 14 (the Jets) than they were to Washington.

#30 by Thomas_beardown // May 12, 2015 - 12:15pm

Thanks for the data Vince. Wow that's crazy.

#9 by LionInAZ // May 09, 2015 - 11:21pm

I guess none of the Detroit TEs met the target threshold, but I would still be interested in their drop rates.

#11 by chemical burn // May 09, 2015 - 11:26pm

Sproles being 2nd in the "RB passes defensed" category matches the ol' "eyeball test" - it seems like teams were very keyed in on him as a receiver this year. It might seem counterintuitive, but I was MUCH happier to see him get the ball as rusher than run a route. He just never seemed to be open and the ball nevertheless got forced his way through the air. DVOA backs that idea up too: 30.4% as a rusher, -3.1% as a pass catcher...

#12 by Bobman // May 09, 2015 - 11:59pm

Scott, Thanks for bringing up Aaron Baily (do you recall that he was named after Aaron Spelling and his mom pronounced it in a Key and Peele manner with a long A?).
I think you are now required to mention that Kordell Stewart ran out the back of the EZ next to a ref ad was not flagged before catching the winning TD. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

Thanks for making me all grumpy....

#16 by ChrisS // May 10, 2015 - 11:29pm

I wonder if a significant number of RB drops are actually strategic drops. The RB is behind the LOS and a defender(s) is close or closing and a reception is going to result in a loss, then not catching the ball is a smart play.

#19 by jamie_k74 // May 11, 2015 - 12:54am

"In the first part of our look at incomplete passes in the 2014 season we focused only on receivers." Great way to begin an article - except that the first part focused on *passers*.

#20 by Scott Kacsmar // May 11, 2015 - 1:47am

*Opens up Microsoft Word*
*Sees "we focused on just the passers" as first sentence*
"I'm trying to be a good teammate here. Let's just say we had some problems with..."

Stuff happens.

#25 by Vincent Verhei // May 11, 2015 - 1:33pm

AGH. No, you can name me, that's fine. 100 percent my fault. Somewhere in that paragraph I was trying to change one instance of "passers" to "quarterbacks" to be a little less redundant and apparently my brain melted down and screwed things all up.

#28 by Mugsy // May 11, 2015 - 3:38pm

"little white guy named Wes Welker"...
Does it -in any way -matter what color he is?
Some day a person's color may truly be irrelevant, but apparently we're not there yet. That's one thing I notice about little kids today. When I talk to my little boys they never mention a person's color, it's almost like they don't even see color anymore! It seems to be an indication of one's generation.
Maybe some day people won't feel the need to mention color?
I have a dream!