Failed Completions 2014

March 16, 2015, 2:43 pm ET

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Scott Kacsmar

You may have missed that Matt Forte set an NFL record for running backs last season. His 102 receptions broke Larry Center's record of 101, set with the Cardinals in 1995. Did they stop the game in Week 17 to acknowledge this accomplishment? Heck no. That would have been in poor taste given that the Bears were trailing the Vikings 13-9 in Minnesota in the final two minutes. Beyond that, Forte tied the record with a 6-yard catch on second-and-20 and broke the record with a 10-yard catch on third-and-19. Not exactly the stuff of legends.

Both receptions qualify as failed completions by our methods. Forte was on the receiving end of 48 failed completions in 2014, or 21 more than any other player. Suddenly it makes sense why he only ranked third in receiving DYAR among running backs last year despite a record number of catches.

On first down, any catch that fails to gain at least 45 percent of the yards to go counts as a failed completion. That threshold climbs to 60 percent of yards to go on second down, and 100 percent of yards to go on third or fourth down. Not every failed completion is created equally, but for this article we make things binary, summing up successes and failures. For DVOA, there are fractional points involved where a 12-yard completion on third-and-15 would generate some partial success.

Just fewer than 25 percent of all completions in the NFL qualify as failed completions -- that's 2,471 plays in 2014. In preparing the following numbers I used only regular-season data. The total number of completions is slightly higher than the official NFL total since Football Outsiders includes backward (lateral) passes as pass plays and completions.

The following table shows each team's completions and failed completions, and the percentage of each team's completions that were failed plays. Teams are sorted from lowest failure rate on completions (Green Bay) to highest (Oakland). We've also listed each team's yardage gained on failed completions, their offensive DVOA on failed completions, and their overall pass offense DVOA.

Rk	Team	Completions	Failed	Pct.	Failed Yards	Failed DVOA	Rk	Pass DVOA	Rk
1	GB	349	61	17.5%	215	-70.1%	16	46.5%	2
2	CAR	327	60	18.3%	213	-81.4%	31	4.1%	23
3	DAL	327	67	20.5%	236	-70.8%	17	36.4%	4
4	PIT	412	85	20.6%	273	-77.0%	25	47.9%	1
5	STL	327	68	20.8%	273	-73.0%	19	-7.8%	27
6	IND	411	89	21.7%	246	-75.4%	23	15.6%	13
7	BAL	344	75	21.8%	242	-74.1%	21	32.6%	6
8	DEN	399	90	22.6%	364	-58.7%	5	41.3%	3
9	NO	456	104	22.8%	339	-66.3%	12	20.7%	9
10	PHI	387	89	23.0%	286	-71.5%	18	11.8%	15
11	SF	293	69	23.5%	320	-53.5%	1	5.8%	22
12	SD	382	90	23.6%	289	-65.2%	9	30.3%	7
13	MIA	394	93	23.6%	355	-65.1%	8	19.1%	11
14	NYG	383	91	23.8%	395	-64.0%	7	16.5%	12
15	ATL	418	101	24.2%	429	-55.2%	2	24.5%	8
16	NE	392	95	24.2%	338	-60.4%	6	35.0%	5
Rk	Team	Completions	Failed	Pct.	Failed Yards	Failed DVOA	Rk	Pass DVOA	Rk
17	TB	301	74	24.6%	331	-56.3%	4	-22.3%	31
18	DET	366	90	24.6%	374	-74.8%	22	9.6%	17
19	CLE	276	68	24.6%	264	-68.7%	14	5.9%	21
20	HOU	295	74	25.1%	242	-69.8%	15	7.9%	19
21	NYJ	287	73	25.4%	254	-68.6%	13	-7.6%	26
22	KC	322	82	25.5%	246	-80.2%	30	11.2%	16
23	ARI	320	83	25.9%	281	-76.8%	24	8.3%	18
24	MIN	322	84	26.1%	286	-78.8%	29	-10.4%	29
25	TEN	299	82	27.4%	410	-55.8%	3	-12.8%	30
26	CIN	323	89	27.6%	305	-77.4%	27	6.7%	20
27	BUF	363	101	27.8%	309	-77.7%	28	0.4%	24
28	CHI	396	111	28.0%	408	-65.9%	11	12.0%	14
29	WAS	364	103	28.3%	367	-73.6%	20	-5.1%	25
30	SEA	287	84	29.3%	276	-77.2%	26	19.6%	10
31	JAC	325	100	30.8%	340	-81.4%	32	-32.1%	32
32	OAK	365	116	31.8%	389	-65.3%	10	-10.1%	28
AVG		350.4	85.7	24.4%	309.2	-69.7%	-	11.3%	-

Denver and Dallas are the only offenses to finish in the top eight in failed completion rate in both 2013 and 2014, and they barely made the cut. The teams actually swapped spots, with Denver ranking third and Dallas ranking eighth in 2013.

For the second year in a row, the defending champions were involved in the biggest plunge. Baltimore climbed from 32nd to seventh this year, but the Seahawks fell from ninth to 30th. That might explain some of Russell Wilson's decline in advanced stats.

Speaking of repeats, the Falcons led the league in failed completion yards again. They had 432 failed yards in 2013 and 429 this year.

On Friday I looked at Denver's playoff loss against the Colts where Peyton Manning had 15 failed completions (12 in the second half alone). Sure enough, out of 267 games and 534 offensive performances last season, that was the most failed completions for any team in any game. The 57.7 percent rate of failed completions ranked as the fifth-highest game in 2014. The highest goes to Arizona in their 12-6 win against St. Louis in Week 15: 10 of Arizona's 16 completions (62.5 percent) qualified as failures. (This was the game where Drew Stanton was injured and Ryan Lindley hit the field.)

The Rams were involved in one of the two 2014 games where an offense had zero failed completions: an efficient 13-for-13 performance in their 52-0 blowout win over Oakland in Week 13. The other "perfect" game came when Andy Dalton made all 16 completions count in New Orleans in Week 11.

Next is a look at the 38 quarterbacks who completed at least 100 passes last season, and their rate of failure on completions, from the lowest (Aaron Rodgers) to the highest (Robert Griffin). I also included the quarterback's DVOA on these failed completions.

Rk	Quarterback	Completions	Failed	Pct.	DVOA	Rk
1	Aaron Rodgers	341	58	17.0%	-71.2%	21
2	Cam Newton	262	47	17.9%	-84.1%	37
3	Mark Sanchez	198	36	18.2%	-69.2%	17
4	Kirk Cousins	126	24	19.0%	-82.6%	35
5	Tony Romo	303	61	20.1%	-70.7%	20
6	Austin Davis	180	37	20.6%	-70.7%	19
7	Ben Roethlisberger	409	85	20.8%	-77.0%	31
8	Andrew Luck	381	81	21.3%	-76.4%	29
9	Shaun Hill	145	31	21.4%	-76.3%	28
10	Joe Flacco	344	75	21.8%	-74.1%	24
11	Peyton Manning	395	89	22.5%	-58.2%	7
12	Brian Hoyer	244	55	22.5%	-72.4%	22
13	Drew Brees	456	104	22.8%	-66.3%	14
14	Tom Brady	373	87	23.3%	-60.9%	8
15	Philip Rivers	381	90	23.6%	-65.2%	13
16	Ryan Tannehill	392	93	23.7%	-65.1%	12
17	Colin Kaepernick	290	69	23.8%	-53.5%	1
18	Josh McCown	184	44	23.9%	-55.2%	4
19	Eli Manning	379	91	24.0%	-64.0%	9
Rk	Quarterback	Completions	Failed	Pct.	DVOA	Rk
20	Matt Ryan	415	101	24.3%	-55.2%	3
21	Matt Stafford	364	89	24.5%	-74.1%	25
22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	197	49	24.9%	-75.8%	27
23	Alex Smith	305	76	24.9%	-80.2%	34
24	Mike Glennon	117	30	25.6%	-57.8%	6
25	Charlie Whitehurst	105	27	25.7%	-56.6%	5
26	Drew Stanton	132	34	25.8%	-70.1%	18
27	Teddy Bridgewater	259	67	25.9%	-83.2%	36
28	Geno Smith	219	57	26.0%	-68.2%	16
29	Kyle Orton	287	78	27.2%	-78.7%	32
30	Andy Dalton	309	84	27.2%	-74.3%	26
31	Jay Cutler	370	102	27.6%	-64.6%	11
32	Nick Foles	189	53	28.0%	-73.0%	23
33	Carson Palmer	141	41	29.1%	-79.4%	33
34	Russell Wilson	285	83	29.1%	-76.7%	30
35	Blake Bortles	280	85	30.4%	-87.1%	38
36	Zach Mettenberger	107	33	30.8%	-55.1%	2
37	Derek Carr	348	112	32.2%	-64.6%	10
38	Robert Griffin	147	49	33.3%	-68.0%	15

Predictably, league MVP Aaron Rodgers had the lowest rate of failed completions. Surprisingly, Cam Newton was second, but next to last in DVOA on these plays. That doesn't even include the time he bounced a screen pass off the ground on fourth-and-25 against Seattle, so that's interesting. Tennessee rookie Zach Mettenberger was the opposite: third-highest failed completion rate, but second-highest DVOA on failed completions. I think I know the explanation to that one, but we'll get to that later.

Rookie Derek Carr led the NFL with 112 failed completions in Oakland's vertically-challenged passing game, but Robert Griffin III had the highest rate at 33.3 percent. I ridiculed both of them back in Week 1 for not showing much effort to get the ball down the field. Griffin had 12 failed completions in that Week 1 loss to Houston. Was Jay Gruden's offense the problem? Colt McCoy only had 91 completions, but his failed rate was 33.0 percent. However, we shouldn't just blame the offensive design. Kirk Cousins had the fourth-lowest rate last year, but lost his job after suffering too many turnovers.

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The NFC East produced another interesting split with Mark Sanchez ranking third and Nick Foles ranking 32nd. Foles was also much more vertical with his passes than Sanchez in Chip Kelly's offense. Sam Bradford has been known for dinking and dunking in his career, but his St. Louis replacements, Shaun Hill and Austin Davis, finished in the top nine here.

Regression hit Josh McCown hard in Tampa Bay last year, but in Chicago in 2013 he had the worst DVOA on failed completions. In 2014, he was middle of the road (18th) in failed completion rate, yet had the fourth-highest DVOA on his failed completions. Strange year, but it helps to have the big targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.

Believe it or not, Colin Kaepernick has had the highest DVOA on failed completions for two seasons in a row. His rate may have gone up a little, but he still maximized the partial success points. I hope to study him in-depth this offseason to get a better understanding of why this may be happening in an offense that many feel underachieved last year.

Some might argue with the idea of a 4-yard completion on first-and-10 being an unsuccessful play, but there is no debating the importance of getting every necessary yard on third and fourth down. The following table lists each quarterback's total failed completions, his completions and failed completions on third/fourth down, and then the table is sorted by failure rate on third-/fourth-down completions, from lowest (Rodgers, again) to highest (Mettenberger). Also included is the share of each quarterback's failed completions that came on third or fourth down, from lowest (Drew Stanton) to highest (Charlie Whitehurst). I included this on accident last year, so I'm listing it again for comparison's sake.

Rk	Quarterback	Total Failed	3-4D Comp.	3-4D Failed	3-4D Failed Pct.	%Failed	Rk
1	Aaron Rodgers	58	84	13	15.5%	22.4%	3
2	Drew Stanton	34	34	6	17.6%	17.6%	1
3	Tony Romo	61	85	15	17.6%	24.6%	10
4	Josh McCown	44	52	10	19.2%	22.7%	4
5	Carson Palmer	41	49	10	20.4%	24.4%	9
6	Mark Sanchez	36	57	12	21.1%	33.3%	21
7	Tom Brady	87	93	20	21.5%	23.0%	6
8	Andrew Luck	81	90	20	22.2%	24.7%	11
9	Philip Rivers	90	107	24	22.4%	26.7%	12
10	Matt Ryan	101	101	23	22.8%	22.8%	5
11	Drew Brees	104	109	25	22.9%	24.0%	8
12	Colin Kaepernick	69	89	21	23.6%	30.4%	14
13	Nick Foles	53	45	11	24.4%	20.8%	2
14	Austin Davis	37	47	12	25.5%	32.4%	18
15	Cam Newton	47	72	19	26.4%	40.4%	29
16	Ben Roethlisberger	85	102	27	26.5%	31.8%	17
17	Ryan Tannehill	93	90	26	28.9%	28.0%	13
18	Joe Flacco	75	90	26	28.9%	34.7%	25
19	Alex Smith	76	86	25	29.1%	32.9%	19
Rk	Quarterback	Total Failed	3-4D Comp.	3-4D Failed	3-4D Failed Pct.	%Failed	Rk
20	Peyton Manning	89	102	30	29.4%	33.7%	23
21	Geno Smith	57	67	20	29.9%	35.1%	27
22	Eli Manning	91	121	38	31.4%	41.8%	31
23	Matt Stafford	89	107	34	31.8%	38.2%	28
24	Mike Glennon	30	22	7	31.8%	23.3%	7
25	Kyle Orton	78	81	26	32.1%	33.3%	22
26	Derek Carr	112	111	37	33.3%	33.0%	20
27	Kirk Cousins	24	30	10	33.3%	41.7%	30
28	Jay Cutler	102	91	32	35.2%	31.4%	16
29	Shaun Hill	31	42	15	35.7%	48.4%	37
30	Russell Wilson	83	81	29	35.8%	34.9%	26
31	Ryan Fitzpatrick	49	58	21	36.2%	42.9%	34
32	Brian Hoyer	55	71	26	36.6%	47.3%	36
33	Teddy Bridgewater	67	76	28	36.8%	41.8%	32
34	Andy Dalton	84	98	37	37.8%	44.0%	35
35	Blake Bortles	85	73	29	39.7%	34.1%	24
36	Robert Griffin	49	33	15	45.5%	30.6%	15
37	Charlie Whitehurst	27	37	17	45.9%	63.0%	38
38	Zach Mettenberger	33	28	14	50.0%	42.4%	33

Rodgers again leads the pack, but you also can see why the Cardinals were really missing Drew Stanton and Carson Palmer down the stretch. No, Ryan Lindley is not cut out to start, but those quarterbacks in Bruce Arians' attack-style offense were rarely checking down for insignificant gains on money downs. Many of the best quarterbacks from last season rank well here, though Peyton Manning had a pretty average season and Russell Wilson only ranked 30th.

Two Tennessee quarterbacks bring up the rear, with half of Mettenberger's completions on third/fourth down resulting in a failed completion. Mettenberger had five completions that gained at least 12 yards on third or fourth down with at least 13 yards needed for a conversion. Only Matthew Stafford (six) had more, but obviously on a lot more plays. This helps to explain why Mettenberger had the second-highest DVOA on failed completions; those plays are still scored as partial successes, and the baseline on those third-and-long plays tends to be below that.

Similarly, Kaepernick only had three completions all season that lost yardage, which compares favorably to any full-season starter. It's good to avoid failed completions, but you especially want to avoid ones that lose yards.

Someone has to be on the receiving end of these failed plays. I looked at the failed completions for everyone with at least 30 receptions. The following table excludes running backs since they dominate these lists due to all the short passes they catch.

Most Failed Completions (WR/TE)			Lowest Failed Completion Rate (WR/TE)					Highest Failed Completion Rate (WR/TE)
Receiver	Team	Failed	Receiver	Team	Rec.	Failed	Pct.	Receiver	Team	Rec.	Failed	Pct.
James Jones	OAK	27	Marques Colston	NO	59	1	1.7%	Damaris Johnson	HOU	31	14	45.2%
Jarvis Landry	MIA	26	Stedman Bailey	STL	30	1	3.3%	Chris Hogan	BUF	41	16	39.0%
Martellus Bennett	CHI	26	Kenny Stills	NO	63	3	4.8%	James Jones	OAK	73	27	37.0%
Golden Tate	DET	24	Nate Washington	TEN	40	2	5.0%	Jordan Reed	WAS	50	17	34.0%
Michael Crabtree	SF	22	Terrance Williams	DAL	37	2	5.4%	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	62	21	33.9%
Julian Edelman	NE	22	Calvin Johnson	DET	71	4	5.6%	Tavon Austin	STL	31	10	32.3%
Antonio Brown	PIT	22	Vincent Jackson	TB	70	4	5.7%	Michael Crabtree	SF	69	22	31.9%
Jermaine Gresham	CIN	21	Sammy Watkins	BUF	65	5	7.7%	Hakeem Nicks	IND	38	12	31.6%
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	21	Andre Roberts	WAS	36	3	8.3%	Jace Amaro	NYJ	38	12	31.6%
Pierre Garcon	WAS	20	Antonio Gates	SD	69	6	8.7%	Percy Harvin	SEA/NYJ	51	16	31.4%

If you saw Derek Carr's numbers, then you might have guessed that James Jones would have the most failed receptions, with 27. Six of those plays came against Denver in Week 10 when Jones finished with 20 receiving yards on eight catches. No wide receiver had ever finished a game with so few yards on that many catches.

Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, and Martellus Bennett all ranked in the top 10 in failed completions last season too.

Drew Brees still had his moments of dominance last year, and two of his receivers had very low rates of failed receptions. Marques Colston finished second in 2013, so that's not surprising. Speedster Kenny Stills will try to complement short-pass catcher Jarvis Landry in Miami now. Consider him a cheaper version of the old Mike Wallace the Dolphins thought they were getting two years ago.

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Even though I used the same minimum requirement of 30 catches for 2013, we had eight receivers this year under 8.0 percent for failed completions. Last season, only Calvin Johnson (3.6 percent) was under that mark.

Despite playing with Kyle Orton, who had a league-high 16 completions for negative yardage, Sammy Watkins had the lowest failed completion rate of all rookie receivers. Teammate Chris Hogan had the second-highest rate.

Damaris Johnson only had 31 catches for Houston, and they weren't very effective. Notice how some of the receivers on the highest rate list are not returning to their teams in 2015, including Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, and perhaps Michael Crabtree. The free-agency buzz has hardly even been there for Crabtree and Nicks.

Harvin is on his fourth team in four years with Buffalo, but he was a lousy fit in Seattle. Though Wilson was 22-of-26 when targeting Harvin in 2014, the combo only gained 133 yards and accounted for 10 failed completions, a rate of 45.5 percent that would have been the highest in the NFL over the course of a full season. Wilson's talents are much better suited for a vertical game.

Finally, let's look at each defense's ability to create failed completions. Teams are ranked from highest rate of failure on completions (Oakland) to lowest (Atlanta). They are also listed with their 2013 rate and rank, and their difference from one season to the next, from most improved (New England) to biggest decline (New Orleans).

Defenses: 2014 Failed Completions with Comparison to 2013
Rk	Team	Completions	Failed	Pct.	2013 Rk	2013 FC%	Diff	Rk
1	OAK	344	102	29.7%	9	26.1%	3.6%	7
2	CAR	365	104	28.5%	1	34.0%	-5.5%	30
3	MIN	353	100	28.3%	20	23.8%	4.5%	5
4	DEN	399	112	28.1%	11	25.8%	2.3%	9
5	DET	383	107	27.9%	2	28.6%	-0.7%	17
6	STL	368	100	27.2%	26	22.2%	5.0%	4
7	ARI	366	98	26.8%	24	23.2%	3.6%	6
8	CIN	365	97	26.6%	5	27.0%	-0.4%	14
9	SD	320	84	26.3%	19	23.9%	2.4%	8
10	BAL	382	100	26.2%	6	26.8%	-0.6%	16
11	SEA	314	82	26.1%	3	28.4%	-2.3%	24
12	CLE	335	87	26.0%	21	23.7%	2.3%	10
13	BUF	337	87	25.8%	17	24.8%	1.0%	12
14	DAL	371	95	25.6%	22	23.5%	2.1%	11
15	WAS	345	87	25.2%	30	20.1%	5.1%	3
16	NE	342	85	24.9%	31	19.0%	5.9%	1
Rk	Team	Completions	Failed	Pct.	2013 Rk	2013 FC%	Diff	Rk
17	NYJ	345	83	24.1%	13	25.2%	-1.1%	20
18	HOU	365	87	23.8%	23	23.3%	0.5%	13
19	JAC	357	85	23.8%	15	24.9%	-1.1%	18
20	TB	388	91	23.5%	8	26.1%	-2.6%	27
21	PHI	345	80	23.2%	32	17.9%	5.3%	2
22	IND	321	74	23.1%	12	25.2%	-2.1%	23
23	KC	318	73	23.0%	7	26.5%	-3.5%	28
24	PIT	351	80	22.8%	16	24.9%	-2.1%	22
25	TEN	347	79	22.8%	18	24.1%	-1.3%	21
26	NYG	325	73	22.5%	14	24.9%	-2.4%	25
27	MIA	338	74	21.9%	25	23.0%	-1.1%	19
28	CHI	366	75	20.5%	28	21.0%	-0.5%	15
29	SF	325	66	20.3%	10	25.9%	-5.6%	31
30	NO	340	69	20.3%	4	27.3%	-7.0%	32
31	GB	333	64	19.2%	27	21.7%	-2.5%	26
32	ATL	359	61	17.0%	29	20.8%	-3.8%	29

If you love watching failed completions, you loved the 2014 Raiders for having the highest percentage on both sides of the ball.

Carolina was was so far ahead of the pack in 2013 that they were almost guaranteed to seriously regress. Greg Hardy's absence killed their pass rush and they totally revamped their secondary, and they finished with the third-biggest decline in failure rate last season. However, even with that decline, they still had the second-highest failure rate in the league. The entire NFC South accounted for four of the six biggest declines.

It was very tough to gain yards after the catch against Seattle in 2013, but they suffered one of the biggest declines last season. Dan Quinn will hope he can bring some of that fast and physical style to an Atlanta defense that ranked dead last in 2014 at forcing failed completions.

Even though the Patriots were average as can be (ranked 16th) at failed completions on both sides of the ball, no defense improved more from 2013 in terms of percentage points.

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Comments

33 comments, Last at 19 Mar 2015, 9:43pm

#1 by Karl Cuba // Mar 16, 2015 - 4:11pm

Kaepernick isn't that hard to explain; his lack of footwork stops him from moving through his reads on time, so he doesn't check the back down very often. The niners also never throw screen passes because defenses load the box as well as spying him so the screen is rarely a good call, this is why he had so few completions for negative yards.

#2 by Scott Kacsmar // Mar 16, 2015 - 4:20pm

49ers ran at least 22 screens last year, though that is a low number and most were to wide receivers.

#3 by Karl Cuba // Mar 16, 2015 - 5:20pm

Yeah, there was supposed to be an 'almost' in there. They do throw some to receivers I'd be surprised if there were more than five to running backs all year.

#4 by Tom Gower // Mar 16, 2015 - 6:31pm

Just because I was curious...

Successful completions by percentage of total team passing attempts (spikes not excluded):
1. Dallas, 54.6%
2. Green Bay, 53.7%
3. Pittsburgh, 53.4%
4. New Orleans, 53.4%
5. Denver, 50.9%
...
28. Tennessee, 42.3%
29. Arizona, 41.7%
30. Cleveland, 41.4%
31. Jacksonville, 40.4%
32. Oakland, 39.6%

Failed completions by percentage of total team passing attempts (spikes not excluded):
1. Washington, 18.9%
2. Seattle, 18.5%
3. Oakland, 18.4%
4. Chicago, 18.3%
5. Jacksonville, 18.0%
...
28. Baltimore, 13.5%
29. Indianapolis, 13.5%
30. St. Louis, 13.2%
31. Green Bay, 11.4%
32. Carolina, 11.0%

#6 by Karl Cuba // Mar 16, 2015 - 9:13pm

Can we please see the rest of this chart? Pretty please with methamphetamine on top?

#8 by Tom Gower // Mar 16, 2015 - 11:15pm

Google Doc link.

#10 by Karl Cuba // Mar 16, 2015 - 11:52pm

Thanks.

#12 by nat // Mar 17, 2015 - 10:14am

Thanks.

This kind of data is much more useful when we have the attempts count in the table and can look at Fails/Attempt. It seems such an obvious piece of data to include in the analysis.

#5 by TacticalSledgehammer // Mar 16, 2015 - 6:39pm

So that A.A.ron Rod-gers guy is pretty good.

#7 by chemical burn // Mar 16, 2015 - 10:31pm

Sort of? The interesting thing about this chart is that while Rodgers is on top, the Top 10 is rife with people like Mark Sanchez and Austin Davis. Also, Rodgers having such a low DVOA on his failed completions is interesting - if you were to compare the two, doesn't Manning's #1 ranked DVOA on those passes off-set his slightly higher percentage of failed completions? Anyway, I'm not sure what these numbers point to, really...

#13 by dank067 // Mar 17, 2015 - 12:27pm

I'm guessing the Broncos are one of the heaviest WR screen-throwing teams in the league. That plus Manning's penchant for getting the ball out very quickly probably leads to a greater share of short completions that are failed but less damaging. Getting the ball out quickly probably also cuts down on late dumpoffs after 5-6 seconds in the pocket that tend not to go anywhere.

#9 by fb29 // Mar 16, 2015 - 11:46pm

oh my god this is depressing for a Falcons fan. it looks like our team mantra has been "we should throw because winning teams throw" instead of "winning teams generate lots of succesful plays" aghghghhghghghghghhgh

#11 by Peregrine // Mar 17, 2015 - 9:30am

It's also sympomatic of a team that falls behind because it has the worst defense in the league, can't run the ball effectively on offense (even when it's ahead), and has suspect pass protection.

The stat in this article that concerns me most as a Falcons fan is that #32 ranking in the defensive chart. The terrifying thing is that the secondary is the strength of the defense; just shows you how bad the front seven is.

#17 by theslothook // Mar 17, 2015 - 3:46pm

I was thinking about this. The fact is - the problems with today's falcons really stem from the problems before matt Ryan. That team cratered and had no talent. We sort of lost sight of that because Matt Ryan, the receivers, and Jon Abraham did their very best to paper over a lackluster roster.

I will say that not signing grimes was the one egregious gm decision.

#16 by Thomas_beardown // Mar 17, 2015 - 3:18pm

I think your team mantra has been "Matt Ryan and the receivers are the only good players on the team, throw throw throw" more than anything.

#14 by Franchise_Punter // Mar 17, 2015 - 1:11pm

I think I could have pegged Derek Carr at the bottom of this list even before the season started. Do you happen to have historical data? I'd be curious to see leaders/laggards over the past decade.

#18 by Scott Kacsmar // Mar 17, 2015 - 3:59pm

I just put together a file on this from 1999-2014.

This is the leaderboard in that time for players with at least 80% complete career data and 500 completions.

1. Derek Anderson - 19.6%
2. Tom Brady - 19.9%
3. Ben Roethlisberger - 20.1%
4. Peyton Manning - 20.1%
5. Andrew Luck - 20.3%
6. Aaron Rodgers - 20.8%

The bottom: Tim Couch (32.6%), Kyle Boller (29.2%), Damon Huard (29.0%), Alex Smith (29%), Joey Harrington (28.9%)

So yeah, outside of Derek Anderson at the top, this is doing a pretty great job of picking out the best QBs in the NFL in this time.

#22 by Jerry // Mar 17, 2015 - 8:48pm

I expect Ben's percentage to go up as his penchant to extend plays, either taking a sack or finding something downfield, continues to decrease.

#25 by dbostedo // Mar 18, 2015 - 9:05am

Plus he's in a more wide-receiver screen happy offense than earlier in his career, which I'd guess would up the percentage as well. Antonio Brown being fairly high on the receiver list bears this out I think.

#15 by JonFrum // Mar 17, 2015 - 3:02pm

So Brady and Edleman failed their way through the season? I'll take failure like that any time.

#19 by hscer // Mar 17, 2015 - 4:29pm

If coaches ever figured out 4th down, you could drop the 3rd down threshold to ~90-95%, right?

#20 by Scott Kacsmar // Mar 17, 2015 - 4:42pm

Maybe in certain distances and field position, but I think you'd have to keep it at 100% for something like third-and-5 at your own 20.

#21 by Mike B. In Va // Mar 17, 2015 - 4:57pm

Bizarre that the Bills have a receiver in the top ten and bottom ten. I'd expect the latter, given how bad that offense was, but maybe Sammy Watkins really is that good...

#23 by Jerry // Mar 17, 2015 - 8:52pm

I'm not saying he's not that good, but this may also reflect Watkins running deeper patterns.

#27 by Mike B. In Va // Mar 18, 2015 - 11:00am

I'm sure it does - but in the context of what's around him (a bottom-quarter QB at best) and the fact that he was thrown a ton of passes maybe speak to him having better-than-average game awareness or skills for getting open? (Of course, that's what you want in a highly drafted WR, but...)

#24 by eggwasp // Mar 18, 2015 - 4:16am

Given the Raiders are the most successful at failed completions on defense, I wonder how important this statistic really is..... Why should a failed completion be seperated from an incomplete pass? So Woodson got there a step late and made the tackle instead of knocking the ball away?
Other than "this is a stat I can compute", I wonder about the importance of this - how is a failed completion a different outcome vs an incompletion for either offense or defense? The only exceptions I can think of, are those where the completion can be said to not have "failed" after all - a completion that gains enough yards to shorten a field goal attempt, get close to a 4th & short, or even that gets a few more yards of room for your punter. I think its applying a binary value where one doesn't apply - arbritrarily in the case of 1st & 2nd down - is 2nd & 6 really a "failure"? Its worse than 2nd & 4 sure, but is it equivalent to 2nd % 9? Obviously not - it has more in common with the "success" of the former than the latter.
Also I think attaching a negative connotation to these plays misses the point of them somewhat. Some of these plays are setting up other plays. Some of them are perhaps replacing an ineffective running game (no surprise Oakland is top - 2nd & 6 was a far better result than getting another 2nd & 11 from running McFadden through a non-existing hole) & some of the failed completions might be the rational response to the higher probability vs throwing the ball further down the field with a lower chance of a completion & higher chance of sack/interception. Sure, you'd rather the guy breaks the tackle whilst catching the ball 11 yards downfield on 3rd & 13, but he has a chance to do this - is throwing the ball 15 yards into double coverage a better option?

#28 by Thomas_beardown // Mar 18, 2015 - 11:36am

This describes *how* an offense worked. It shows that Oakland was throwing short and not breaking tackles, so that's a big reason why their offense sucked. Other stats like a low completetion percentage would say that a team was having trouble completing passes in the first place.

#32 by Bright Blue Shorts // Mar 19, 2015 - 4:49pm

I wonder if the Raiders defensive success at failed completions is due to opposing teams taking fewer risks.

When other teams know you're that inept why risk a turnover when you can just punt it back to them knowing they're unlikely to score and you'll get another chance.

#26 by RickD // Mar 18, 2015 - 10:35am

"but there is no debating the importance of getting every necessary yard on third and fourth down. "

Ooh - a challenge!

No, seriously, there is certainly value to analysis using a binary stat like failed completion. But I also see good teams willing to go underneath on 3rd and very long, even in routes that are unlikely to get a 1st down.

Let's consider a team facing 3rd and 20. Now getting a completion at least 20 yards downfield isn't easy (if it were, teams would do it all the time and there would never be punting). So a team might decide that, instead of going for an all-or-nothing approach, it makes sense to take the yardage available, to improve the odds of a FG attempt or simply to move the ball for better position after a punt. A 15-yard movement of the ball has value, even if you have to punt.

I'm guessing that this difference between a 0-yard gain on 3rd and 20 and a 15-yard gain on 3rd and 20 is accounted for by DVOA.

#29 by Scott Kacsmar // Mar 18, 2015 - 5:07pm

"I'm guessing that this difference between a 0-yard gain on 3rd and 20 and a 15-yard gain on 3rd and 20 is accounted for by DVOA."

Of course.

#30 by theslothook // Mar 19, 2015 - 1:39am

As a good statistician, one would like to know if field position value is a stationary process. I'll ruin it, based on voa, the answer is no.

#31 by ClavisRa // Mar 19, 2015 - 7:39am

I'm shocked! Shocked to discover that receivers who always run deep routes had low 'failure' rates on completed catches. Shocked, I tell you! (Almost as shocked as discovering that high volume possession receivers had high failure totals.)