2015 Short-Yardage Results

by Scott Kacsmar

For those complaining that offense is too easy in today's NFL, this may be the most telling piece of evidence yet: the last eight seasons (2008-2015) are the top seasons ever in average yards per play. The 5.48 yards per play teams averaged in 2015 set a new high-water mark in league-wide production.

Yet when teams only need a yard or two to extend a drive, we still see conversion rates centering around 61 or 62 percent. Offenses can do better with smarter strategies in these situations. After all, more than two-thirds of plays in the NFL gain yards. But we still see a tendency for teams to treat a situation like third-and-1 like it must be old-school football with big formations, telegraphing that a run is coming straight into a pile of humanity.

Getting cute is usually not the answer either. It was a fourth-and-3 play, so it falls out of our short-yardage range, but you could say for the second year in a row that the most absurd call of the season came in a game against the Patriots -- those Bill Belichick Jedi mind tricks at work again. The Colts went for a fake punt and Griff Whalen, a wide receiver, snapped the ball to Colt Anderson, a safety, with the rest of the team aligned to the right side of the field. Darwinism won out and the Colts were buried for a loss on the play, losing any hope they had left to win that night.

The Colts tried a unique formation on 4th down.
It didn't work. #NEvsIND http://t.co/Eh0HXpFV00

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2015

At least they subscribed to "the shortest distance between two points is a straight line" theory here, but never did 3 yards feel so far away.

As far as a qualified short-yardage situation goes, the Steelers' fake field goal in Seattle may take the prize for worst call of the year. On a day when Ben Roethlisberger would pass for 456 yards, Pittsburgh spent the commercial break before the start of the second quarter to draw up this mess on fourth-and-2.

"Hey, what if we have Landry Jones lob one across the field to Alejandro Villanueva?"https://t.co/9ry6hCrkMu

— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurke_SI) November 29, 2015

There is nothing like asking backup quarterback Landry Jones to stand 9 yards deep before a throwback pass to tackle Alejandro Villanueva. The only thing this highlight is missing is the Madden-like rotation of the camera after the inevitable interception.

There are some short-yardage situations where it is worth the risk to try a deep pass in hopes of a big gain, but generally speaking, this is one area of the game where the run (especially from quarterbacks) is consistently more effective than the pass.

The following is a look at the short-yardage success of 2015 teams.

Note: All data is for the regular season only and excludes spikes, kneeldowns, intentional safeties, and botched kicks. We are not able to differentiate between plays that have a full yard to go versus inches to go. Plays including offensive penalties that cause the down to be replayed are excluded. This happened twice in 2015. Since the down is repeated, these plays do not officially count as conversion attempts on third or fourth down. Passes include sacks. The only plays studied are on third or fourth down with 1 or 2 yards to go, because these are the most important short-yardage plays that essentially decide if the offensive drive will continue. Most data goes back to 2009.

Third Down

Our first table looks at the summary of plays on third-and-1 and third-and-2 since 2009:

3rd-and-1 Passes				3rd-and-2 Passes
Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate	Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
2009	190	112	58.9%	2009	325	176	54.2%
2010	211	122	57.8%	2010	355	187	52.7%
2011	200	114	57.0%	2011	352	169	48.0%
2012	241	126	52.3%	2012	356	186	52.2%
2013	244	121	49.6%	2013	357	174	48.7%
2014	214	127	59.3%	2014	353	196	55.5%
2015	197	122	61.9%	2015	376	191	50.8%
Total	1497	844	56.4%	Total	2474	1279	51.7%
3rd-and-1 Quarterback Runs				3rd-and-2 Quarterback Runs
Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate	Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
2009	101	88	87.1%	2009	19	13	68.4%
2010	89	67	75.3%	2010	25	17	68.0%
2011	89	75	84.3%	2011	26	19	73.1%
2012	96	79	82.3%	2012	30	19	63.3%
2013	61	51	83.6%	2013	37	22	59.5%
2014	101	74	73.3%	2014	33	18	54.5%
2015	78	67	85.9%	2015	35	27	77.1%
Total	615	501	81.5%	Total	205	135	65.9%
3rd-and-1 Runs (non-QB)				3rd-and-2 Runs (non-QB)
Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate	Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
2009	516	350	67.8%	2009	173	100	57.8%
2010	446	299	67.0%	2010	171	100	58.5%
2011	429	294	68.5%	2011	148	83	56.1%
2012	447	290	64.9%	2012	150	81	54.0%
2013	459	310	67.5%	2013	128	85	66.4%
2014	468	317	67.7%	2014	128	83	64.8%
2015	454	299	65.9%	2015	140	92	65.7%
Total	3219	2159	67.1%	Total	1038	624	60.1%

It was another good year for the quarterbacks. Third-and-2 quarterback runs succeeded more often than we have seen in recent history, but much of that comes from scrambles (19 of 21 worked). The volume of quarterback runs on third-and-1 dipped, but they converted at the highest rate since 2009. Third-and-1 passes had their highest conversion rate in the last seven seasons, topping 60 percent for the first time. We are still in the process of fixing some errors in air yardage data for 2015, so perhaps in a future ALEX topic we can look to see if teams threw shorter, safer passes more on third-and-1 this past season.

As expected, non-quarterback runs on third-and-1 have the smallest variance and work about two-thirds of the time. The surprising part is third-and-2 runs have been successful 65.7 percent of the time over the last three seasons after converting just 56.7 percent of the time from 2009-2012. If this trend should continue, it would just make teams look even sillier for continuing to pass roughly 70 percent of the time in third-and-2 situations.

I looked at the period of 2013-15, excluding scrambles and converting quarterback runs to designed runs. Among the league's 32 teams, only the Eagles (44.2 percent) and Bengals (48.4 percent) have passed on fewer than half of their third-and-2 plays. Even the 30th-ranked Seahawks (59.2 percent) are a hair under 60 percent passing. Yet 24 teams have a better conversion rate when running on third-and-2 versus passing. The best overall conversion rate belongs to Chip Kelly's Eagles (75.0 percent), the most run-heavy offense in the group. Interestingly enough, Kelly is now with the 49ers, ranked first in pass conversion rate and 32nd in run conversion rate. Expect those numbers to flip around this season.

If we did something similar for a very common situation with huge variance such as first-and-10, then we would expect a good mixture of results that better highlight an offense's strength and weakness. When it is third-and-2, the short distance to go is a great equalizing factor, shrinking the talent gap in the process. In tougher situations like third-and-long, you would expect more talented offenses to shine. Not to stick with Philadelphia, but the 2015 Eagles are a great example of this. The Eagles ranked fifth in DVOA on third-and-short, but were 30th on all first downs and 27th in third-and-long situations. In other words, it does not take a genius to manufacture 1 or 2 yards.

It was about nine years ago when I started looking at the third-and-2 conundrum, and I still cannot understand why teams view it so strongly as a passing situation. While the seasons since then have been the pass-happiest in NFL history, even the early 2000s saw the same trend: more passes than runs on third-and-2 despite an inferior conversion rate.

One strategy the offense discards with 2 yards to go is the quarterback sneak, the most effective scrimmage play in football.

QB Sneak on 3rd-and-1					QB Sneak on 4th-and-1
Year	Sneaks	1st Downs	Conv. Rate		Year	Sneaks	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
2009	83	76	91.6%		2009	47	41	87.2%
2010	75	58	77.3%		2010	38	32	84.2%
2011	64	60	93.8%		2011	25	20	80.0%
2012	60	53	88.3%		2012	25	18	72.0%
2013	35	32	91.4%		2013	24	17	70.8%
2014	61	49	80.3%		2014	30	25	83.3%
2015	56	48	85.7%		2015	23	18	78.3%
Total	434	376	86.6%		Total	212	171	80.7%

Since 2009, the sneak has only worked six times in nine attempts on third-and-2. Compare that to third-and-1 where the sneak has a success rate of 86.6 percent. In fact, 70.6 percent of quarterback runs on third-and-1 since 2009 are sneaks.

NFL Quarterbacks: 3rd-and-1 Runs Since 2009
Type of run	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
Quarterback sneak	434	376	86.6%
Scramble	46	45	97.8%
Option/zone-read	36	27	75.0%
Quarterback dive	27	24	88.9%
Botched snap	20	1	5.0%
Bootleg	21	17	81.0%
Botched handoff	16	2	12.5%
Sweep	6	4	66.7%
Broken play	5	2	40.0%
Quarterback draw	4	3	75.0%
Total	615	501	81.5%

Note: teams were able to turn two botched handoffs/snaps into first downs in 2015 (thanks, fumble luck). From 2009-2014, only one botched play out of 31 turned into a first down on third-and-short.

We know teams basically ignore the sneak when 2 yards are needed on third or fourth down. Out of 4,090 plays since 2009, only 10 sneaks were executed, and seven worked. It is hard to imagine there have not been dozens of golden opportunities to squeeze in a sneak with 2 yards to go. Believe it or not, out of the 649 sneaks I have charted for this seven-season study, 62.7 percent of them gained at least 2 yards. A good surge is a good surge, and referees can be generous with the spot on these plays.

There will always be drives where the clock is an issue or the goal is loftier than a 2-yard gain, but possession is crucial in the NFL, and it is hard to say most offenses are optimizing their short-yardage success.

Fourth Down

The following table looks at the summary of plays on fourth-and-1 and fourth-and-2 since 2009:

4th-and-1 Passes				4th-and-2 Passes
Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate	Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
2009	58	31	53.4%	2009	42	15	35.7%
2010	46	25	54.3%	2010	50	25	50.0%
2011	35	19	54.3%	2011	42	13	31.0%
2012	48	26	54.2%	2012	39	20	51.3%
2013	50	27	54.0%	2013	32	17	53.1%
2014	42	24	57.1%	2014	36	20	55.6%
2015	50	27	54.0%	2015	48	23	47.9%
Total	329	179	54.4%	Total	289	133	46.0%
4th-and-1 Quarterback Runs				4th-and-2 Quarterback Runs
Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate	Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
2009	54	46	85.2%	2009	1	1	100.0%
2010	44	36	81.8%	2010	1	0	0.0%
2011	30	25	83.3%	2011	4	3	75.0%
2012	34	27	79.4%	2012	5	4	80.0%
2013	32	22	68.8%	2013	3	3	100.0%
2014	36	28	77.8%	2014	3	3	100.0%
2015	34	27	79.4%	2015	3	2	66.7%
Total	264	211	79.9%	Total	20	16	80.0%
4th-and-1 Runs (non-QB)				4th-and-2 Runs (non-QB)
Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate	Year	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
2009	117	75	64.1%	2009	17	7	41.2%
2010	99	66	66.7%	2010	11	5	45.5%
2011	77	32	41.6%	2011	8	6	75.0%
2012	75	49	65.3%	2012	8	7	87.5%
2013	108	73	67.6%	2013	12	9	75.0%
2014	85	55	64.7%	2014	5	3	60.0%
2015	79	53	67.1%	2015	3	2	66.7%
Total	640	403	63.0%	Total	64	39	60.9%

What stood out most here was just how terrible offenses were in the 2011 season, when only 50 percent of fourth-and-short plays worked. In 2011, fourth-and-1 runs (41.6 percent) and fourth-and-2 passes (31.0 percent) just had abysmal success rates that are way out of line with the other years of data. That was the year of the lockout, but it was still a very offensive season overall, so chalk this up to randomness. There were not any particular running backs bringing the fourth-and-1 runs down that year as Baltimore's Ray Rice had the most failures with three stuffs. Denver's Tim Tebow and Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman led the way among passers with three incompletions each on fourth-and-2.

The overall fourth-and-short conversion rate of 61.8 percent in 2015 was the lowest in the last four years, but that is still good evidence that teams should go for it on fourth-and-short more often.

While the sample size of fourth-down plays is much smaller than that on third-down, it is interesting to see how consistent the conversion rate has been for fourth-and-1 passes; typically right around 54 percent.

Here's the summary of all quarterback runs on fourth-and-1 since 2009:

NFL Quarterbacks: 4th-and-1 Runs Since 2009
Type of run	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
Quarterback sneak	212	171	80.7%
Bootleg	14	13	92.9%
Scramble	12	12	100.0%
Quarterback dive	8	7	87.5%
Sweep	5	3	60.0%
Option/zone read	4	3	75.0%
Botched snap	4	0	0.0%
Botched handoff	3	0	0.0%
Quarterback draw	1	1	100.0%
Broken play	1	1	100.0%
Total	264	211	79.9%

Quarterbacks had a solid 2015, picking up 27 first downs in 34 attempts, but that includes two botched handoffs that get credited to the quarterback. From 2009-2014, there was only one such play on fourth-and-1.

Finally, here is the seven-year summary of each short-yardage play type:

Short-Yardage Summary (2009-2015)
Type	Plays	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
Quarterback sneak	656	554	84.5%
Quarterback run (all)	1,104	863	78.2%
Run (non-QB)	4,961	3,225	65.0%
Pass	4,589	2,435	53.1%
Total	10,654	6,523	61.2%

Quarterback Effectiveness

When you look at these quarterback conversion rates since 2000 (minimum 20 attempts, active players in bold), it's impossible not to see that overall quarterback talent has little to no impact on short-yardage rushing success:

NFL Quarterbacks: Short-Yardage Runs Since 2000 (Minimum 20 Carries)
Quarterback	Runs	1st Downs	Conv. Rate	Quarterback	Runs	1st Downs	Conv. Rate
Chad Pennington	33	31	93.9%	Matt Hasselbeck	39	32	82.1%
Tom Brady	113	105	92.9%	Andrew Luck	22	18	81.8%
David Garrard	65	60	92.3%	Ben Roethlisberger	55	44	80.0%
Kyle Boller	21	19	90.5%	Steve McNair	49	39	79.6%
Josh Freeman	36	32	88.9%	Andy Dalton	42	33	78.6%
Jay Fiedler	34	30	88.2%	Matt Cassel	27	21	77.8%
Drew Brees	51	45	88.2%	Michael Vick	62	48	77.4%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	47	41	87.2%	Joe Flacco	53	41	77.4%
Aaron Brooks	44	38	86.4%	Daunte Culpepper	73	55	75.3%
Matt Ryan	36	31	86.1%	Jay Cutler	26	19	73.1%
Jeff Garcia	42	36	85.7%	Mark Sanchez	25	18	72.0%
Brian Griese	27	23	85.2%	Matt Schaub	35	25	71.4%
Carson Palmer	40	34	85.0%	Kordell Stewart	35	25	71.4%
David Carr	33	28	84.8%	J.P. Losman	21	15	71.4%
Donovan McNabb	58	49	84.5%	Jason Campbell	24	17	70.8%
Aaron Rodgers	32	27	84.4%	Mark Brunell	20	14	70.0%
Brad Johnson	25	21	84.0%	Quincy Carter	20	14	70.0%
Cam Newton	87	73	83.9%	Jon Kitna	23	16	69.6%
Drew Bledsoe	31	26	83.9%	Josh McCown	25	16	64.0%
Jake Plummer	31	26	83.9%	Jake Delhomme	23	14	60.9%
Alex Smith	30	25	83.3%	Russell Wilson	25	15	60.0%
Philip Rivers	34	28	82.4%	TOTAL	1674	1367	81.7%

Tom Brady added to his unprecedented volume by going 9-of-10 on quarterback sneaks in 2015, though it was the second season in a row he was stopped on one. He had a streak from 2005 to 2012 where he was not stopped even one time. Of all teams, the Colts actually were the one defense to stop him.

Cam Newton is starting to rack up the volume too, and had a fantastic 2015 where he was 17-of-18 on short-yardage runs, only stopped by the Jaguars on a sneak in Week 1. He was 15-of-18 in 2014. Whereas almost every Brady run is a sneak, only 26 of Newton's 87 plays are sneaks. He has run that trademarked quarterback dive (also known as power) 32 times, with 25 successes.

Ryan Fitzpatrick's passing stats may leave something to be desired, but he was 9-of-9 on short-yardage runs last season. He is as likely as any quarterback in the league to hurry to the line for a quick sneak.

Matt Ryan was more nimble than usual last season, converting 6-of-7 short-yardage runs with a botched handoff being his only failure. He scrambled successfully four times, including a notable juke of Thomas Davis in Week 16.

Life just hasn't been the same since I watched Matt Ryan juke Thomas Davis yesterday (Week 16). pic.twitter.com/R0FWjcW18M

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) March 23, 2016

Russell Wilson is an interesting name to bring up the rear, because he is one of the most effective running quarterbacks overall, but that has not translated to short-yardage success. Part of that is he is much better scrambling than on designed runs, and scrambles only account for five of his 25 short-yardage plays. He has also been dinged by two botched handoffs and a botched snap, which obviously hurts his percentage. Still, he is just 5-of-8 on the sneak, so that might be one area where his lack of size (and the weakness of Seattle's interior line) do the Seahawks no favors.

Matthew Stafford still does not have enough attempts to qualify yet, but he is 17-of-17 on short-yardage runs in his career (converting all 12 sneaks). Maybe he should run more instead of Detroit being so dependent on his arm in these situations.

2015 Results

Finally, we close with a look at the short-yardage results for 2015 offenses and defenses. For the sake of sample sizes, I combined both downs and distances together for an average of 47 plays per team. For offenses, the pass ratio (Pass%) includes scrambles as passes. Teams are ranked by conversion rate (best to worst).

2015 Offense: Short-Yardage Plays
Rk	Team	Plays	1st Downs	Pct.	Yds/Play	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Pass%	Rk
1	PHI	50	41	82.0%	4.9	15	33.1%	5	34.0%	29
2	NO	43	34	79.1%	6.9	3	45.0%	2	34.9%	26
3	CLE	52	37	71.2%	7.0	2	44.9%	3	69.2%	1
4	SEA	52	37	71.2%	4.9	14	12.4%	11	36.5%	24
5	CAR	48	34	70.8%	5.0	13	30.2%	6	31.3%	32
6	ATL	54	38	70.4%	3.5	24	2.5%	15	55.6%	7
7	HOU	43	30	69.8%	5.8	8	22.7%	8	48.8%	12
8	MIN	31	21	67.7%	7.2	1	52.5%	1	48.4%	13
9	CHI	47	31	66.0%	6.4	6	34.0%	4	44.7%	19
10	SF	44	29	65.9%	5.5	10	5.6%	13	61.4%	4
11	OAK	44	29	65.9%	3.7	23	5.4%	14	45.5%	18
12	NE	55	36	65.5%	4.1	21	9.7%	12	41.8%	22
13	DET	52	34	65.4%	5.1	12	1.7%	16	67.3%	2
14	SD	51	33	64.7%	2.9	28	-23.6%	30	43.1%	21
15	WAS	50	32	64.0%	4.1	19	-7.5%	23	50.0%	11
16	KC	41	26	63.4%	4.7	16	1.3%	17	34.1%	27
Rk	Team	Plays	1st Downs	Pct.	Yds/Play	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Pass%	Rk
17	TB	43	27	62.8%	6.5	5	-2.1%	19	46.5%	14
18	ARI	48	30	62.5%	5.6	9	21.4%	9	54.2%	8
19	IND	56	34	60.7%	2.3	30	-9.4%	24	53.6%	9
20	CIN	53	32	60.4%	6.5	4	29.2%	7	34.0%	30
21	NYJ	50	30	60.0%	3.9	22	-6.6%	22	46.0%	16
22	DAL	37	22	59.5%	4.1	20	-0.1%	18	35.1%	25
23	BUF	44	26	59.1%	3.0	27	-6.3%	21	34.1%	28
24	JAC	35	20	57.1%	3.4	26	-21.5%	28	45.7%	17
25	PIT	49	27	55.1%	6.1	7	15.1%	10	61.2%	5
26	STL	28	15	53.6%	2.3	31	-10.4%	25	32.1%	31
27	NYG	58	31	53.4%	4.4	18	-14.1%	27	56.9%	6
28	MIA	36	19	52.8%	4.6	17	-23.0%	29	44.4%	20
29	BAL	65	34	52.3%	3.4	25	-3.5%	20	46.2%	15
30	DEN	43	22	51.2%	5.5	11	-13.7%	26	51.2%	10
31	GB	52	24	46.2%	2.4	29	-32.7%	31	38.5%	23
32	TEN	43	17	39.5%	1.8	32	-42.3%	32	62.8%	3

Seattle and Philadelphia are the only offenses to rank in the top five in conversion rate in both 2014 and 2015. New retiree Marshawn Lynch was 9-of-14 on plays where he was the ballcarrier or target, so it's not like he was the driving force behind Seattle's 2015 success. However, DeMarco Murray was 15-of-15 on short-yardage runs for Philadelphia, so the Titans will hope he can improve their horrific short-yardage offense that ranked 32nd in conversion rate, yards per play, and DVOA a season ago.

Denver easily had the best short-yardage offense in 2014, but really fell off in 2015. Both quarterbacks and running backs struggled, though C.J. Anderson was the most effective of those players, and so far he is the only one of the four returning to Denver in 2016.

No offense took more risks in short yardage than Pittsburgh, which we detailed throughout the season in Ben Roethlisberger's ALEX. Pittsburgh ranks 15 spots higher in DVOA than it does in conversion rate. Roethlisberger did well to convert 16-of-23 plays, but the problems were more with Le'veon Bell (only 1-of-4 on runs), Michael Vick (1-of-6), and that absolutely ridiculous fake field goal from the introduction.

Here are the defenses.

2015 Defense: Short-Yardage Plays
Rk	Team	Plays	1st Downs	Pct.	Yds/Play	Rk	DVOA	Rk
1	KC	45	21	46.7%	3.7	10	-35.0%	2
2	STL	56	29	51.8%	3.9	12	-33.5%	3
3	NYJ	60	32	53.3%	4.9	23	-14.8%	7
4	SEA	37	20	54.1%	2.6	1	-37.7%	1
5	MIN	54	30	55.6%	3.0	3	-32.8%	4
6	OAK	62	35	56.5%	4.2	13	-12.4%	8
7	WAS	48	28	58.3%	6.2	28	7.7%	18
8	GB	41	24	58.5%	3.6	7	8.5%	19
9	BUF	46	27	58.7%	4.5	18	-2.6%	13
10	CIN	51	30	58.8%	3.8	11	-9.4%	11
11	HOU	34	20	58.8%	3.1	4	-9.7%	10
12	CLE	61	36	59.0%	4.6	19	-8.7%	12
13	TEN	54	32	59.3%	3.3	5	-17.8%	5
14	DAL	51	31	60.8%	3.6	9	-15.1%	6
15	ARI	49	30	61.2%	5.6	27	0.7%	15
16	BAL	39	24	61.5%	7.7	31	23.8%	30
Rk	Team	Plays	1st Downs	Pct.	Yds/Play	Rk	DVOA	Rk
17	ATL	47	29	61.7%	3.4	6	-11.3%	9
18	NE	37	23	62.2%	4.2	14	11.3%	23
19	IND	43	27	62.8%	4.7	21	19.9%	27
20	CHI	35	22	62.9%	3.6	8	-1.7%	14
21	PIT	57	36	63.2%	4.6	20	10.4%	22
22	JAC	40	26	65.0%	4.7	22	15.3%	25
23	MIA	43	28	65.1%	2.7	2	5.8%	17
24	DEN	32	21	65.6%	4.2	15	8.8%	20
25	SD	35	23	65.7%	5.4	25	4.5%	16
26	SF	65	45	69.2%	4.4	17	14.5%	24
27	CAR	43	30	69.8%	5.4	26	21.7%	28
28	DET	41	29	70.7%	8.8	32	22.0%	29
29	TB	44	32	72.7%	4.4	16	9.7%	21
30	NO	41	30	73.2%	6.2	29	35.3%	31
31	PHI	51	39	76.5%	5.2	24	17.5%	26
32	NYG	55	43	78.2%	6.9	30	40.4%	32

For the second year in a row, the Chiefs allowed the lowest conversion rate, but their DVOA was nearly twice as good as it was in 2014 (-18.6%). Seattle had the top DVOA thanks to allowing a miniscule 2.6 yards per play. The biggest disconnect comes with Baltimore, which ranked 16th in conversion rate but 30th in DVOA due to allowing some big plays.

The Giants managed to beat out the Saints for the worst short-yardage defense. You don't need a six-man committee to see that problem, but a huge spending spree in free agency may not be the solution either.

Denver and Carolina were the best defenses in 2015, but both look pretty pedestrian here. Then again, the Patriots were dead last in 2014 in short-yardage defense, but we know how that season ended. You just need to make the big stops, such as Denver's interception on New England's two-point conversion attempt at the end of the AFC Championship Game.