2017 DVOA by Routes: Quarterbacks

by Scott Kacsmar

In Part I of our look at data on 12 of the most common pass routes in the NFL, we focused on the production of individual receivers. Today, we are looking at 2017's quarterbacks. This increases the data pool for each player, though we are still generally dealing with small sample sizes. The curl is the only route where any quarterback attempted at least 75 passes last year. Eli Manning (117) edged out Joe Flacco (100) and Alex Smith (100) for the most curl attempts. The least frequent route in our study was the singular comeback route attempted by Aaron Rodgers in his shortened 2017 season. This may in part be explained by a new category for back-shoulder throws, which we'll get into again later.

Each table below includes the 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 passes last year. The last row in each table shows the league-wide totals and averages. We are going to focus on the same 12 routes we analyzed in Part I, ignoring the running back-heavy throws such as flats, RB screens, and swing passes. It should probably come as no surprise that Jared Goff (125 DYAR), Kirk Cousins (111 DYAR), and Drew Brees (98 DYAR) led the way in value on running back screens after huge seasons from Todd Gurley, Chris Thompson, and the duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Goff also led the league with 49 DYAR on flat passes, which was largely accomplished by Gurley's 41 DYAR.

It must be noted that the following data is still receiving DYAR and DVOA rather than passing. Since it is receiving, sacks obviously aren't included, and interceptions are not penalized any more than other incomplete passes. The number of passes includes defensive pass interference penalties. Each table is sorted by descending DYAR.

Route data is courtesy of our friends at Sports Info Solutions and is featured in Football Outsiders Almanac 2018 (available here).

Curl

The curl route was the league's most common throw last year with 2,630 attempts according to SIS.

Curl Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Matt Ryan	ATL	199	1	23.7%	1	79	703	75.9%	7.4	4.1
Alex Smith	KC	168	2	13.9%	5	100	705	81.4%	6.0	3.0
Drew Brees	NO	154	3	15.6%	4	79	574	78.5%	6.4	3.2
Philip Rivers	LAC	144	4	16.8%	3	75	553	76.1%	7.3	3.3
Carson Wentz	PHI	130	5	18.0%	2	67	532	79.1%	8.0	2.0
Russell Wilson	SEA	111	6	7.5%	8	88	603	78.2%	6.5	3.1
Tom Brady	NE	104	7	6.3%	10	82	531	76.8%	6.1	2.6
Kirk Cousins	WAS	101	8	6.0%	11	80	540	79.7%	6.0	2.7
Matthew Stafford	DET	98	9	12.9%	6	54	402	73.6%	6.2	4.0
Trevor Siemian	DEN	85	10	12.6%	7	49	362	71.4%	7.1	3.5
Jameis Winston	TB	73	11	3.6%	13	71	463	64.8%	8.8	1.7
Derek Carr	OAK	73	12	-0.2%	16	91	601	72.5%	5.6	3.7
Eli Manning	NYG	71	13	-2.6%	20	117	699	72.4%	6.7	1.9
Marcus Mariota	TEN	48	14	-2.1%	19	77	558	75.3%	7.2	2.6
Jared Goff	LAR	44	15	3.2%	15	43	269	69.8%	6.0	3.3
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	42	16	-2.0%	18	60	369	69.5%	6.5	3.1
Brett Hundley	GB	41	17	3.2%	14	38	248	81.6%	4.4	3.3
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	41	18	-1.3%	17	61	376	72.1%	6.7	2.9
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Blake Bortles	JAX	39	19	-4.2%	21	76	497	67.1%	6.1	4.2
Case Keenum	MIN	34	20	-5.3%	22	76	549	76.0%	6.6	2.7
Deshaun Watson	HOU	32	21	7.4%	9	23	140	77.3%	6.0	2.2
Aaron Rodgers	GB	29	22	5.4%	12	22	149	72.7%	5.7	3.7
DeShone Kizer	CLE	21	23	-8.6%	27	91	536	64.8%	6.0	3.7
Dak Prescott	DAL	20	24	-7.2%	25	79	517	77.2%	6.6	1.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	19	25	-9.0%	28	100	649	75.8%	6.0	2.6
Andy Dalton	CIN	17	26	-7.7%	26	59	358	65.5%	7.0	2.8
Carson Palmer	ARI	15	27	-6.0%	23	40	316	69.2%	8.6	2.1
Tom Savage	HOU	10	28	-6.1%	24	30	184	79.3%	6.0	2.0
Cam Newton	CAR	-1	29	-11.7%	29	66	366	60.0%	6.8	3.1
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-9	30	-17.6%	34	23	131	52.2%	6.7	5.0
Jacoby Brissett	IND	-10	31	-13.5%	30	79	451	64.6%	6.6	2.3
C.J. Beathard	SF	-13	32	-17.4%	33	33	171	57.6%	7.0	2.8
Josh McCown	NYJ	-20	33	-15.6%	31	72	451	72.2%	5.8	3.0
Jay Cutler	MIA	-22	34	-16.9%	32	57	301	64.9%	6.5	2.5
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	-55	35	-30.1%	35	50	276	58.0%	7.8	2.0
NFL Curls	TOT	2,002	-	-0.6%	-	2,630	17,323	71.7%	6.6	2.9

One of the surprising things about Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season was that he had 0 DYAR on 54 curl routes. In 2017, he led the league with 199 DYAR and a 23.7% DVOA on curl routes. Julio Jones helped a lot with 78 DYAR, but Ryan also had good contributions from his other receivers, including a couple of plays by running back Devonta Freeman (37 DYAR) in December. Only Brian Hoyer (5.0) and Blake Bortles (4.2) had more YAC on curl routes than Ryan (4.1).

Likewise, this wasn't a route with which Alex Smith excelled in Kansas City in 2016, when he had 2 DYAR on 86 curls. That shot up to 168 DYAR in 2017, second in the league, after the trio of Tyreek Hill (49 DYAR), Travis Kelce (41 DYAR), and Kareem Hunt (28 DYAR) was very good with Smith. Meanwhile, Drew Brees finished third in curl DYAR for the second year in a row; he was joined by Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and Trevor Siemian as quarterbacks to repeat in the top 10 in DYAR from 2016. Yes, the game's most common route was the one thing for which we can compliment Siemian in his time in Denver.

Struggling with the game's most common route is not a good thing, but it may not be a huge red flag that your quarterback needs to be replaced either. Case Keenum and Jared Goff had awful numbers on curls with the 2016 Rams, but at least improved to mediocrity in this area under better circumstances in 2017. Eli Manning was dead last with -137 DYAR on curls in 2016, but was a respectable 13th in 2017 with 71 DYAR on the route he threw more than anyone. That also led to the most dropped curl routes (11) in the league, with a variety of players contributing there.

Out of the bottom nine quarterbacks in curl DYAR in 2017, two retired (Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer), and five more should not be 2018 starters (Jacoby Brissett, Josh McCown, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, and C.J. Beathard). That just leaves Cam Newton and Mitchell Trubisky as Week 1 starters this year. The latter was dead last in DYAR and DVOA, but he also was a rookie, and Trubisky should have better options this year than Kendall Wright, Dontrelle Inman, and Dion Sims for these plays.

We mentioned last year that the quarterbacks with the least YAC on curl routes were Dak Prescott (2.0), Eli Manning (1.7), and Jameis Winston (1.5). Well, fast-forward another season and the quarterbacks with the least YAC on curl routes in 2017 were Eli Manning (1.9), Dak Prescott, (1.8), and Jameis Winston (1.7). Dallas may have the best shot at improving that aspect in 2018 after Jason Witten (1.1 YAC and 7 DYAR on 29 targets) retired. The departed Dez Bryant also had 0 DYAR on his 18 curl routes.

Out

The out, or quick out, had 1,816 attempts last season.

Out Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Philip Rivers	LAC	180	1	42.6%	1	47	508	74.5%	8.9	5.1
Drew Brees	NO	141	2	19.7%	3	61	451	80.3%	6.1	4.0
Jameis Winston	TB	125	3	20.2%	2	54	412	70.4%	8.6	2.2
Matthew Stafford	DET	119	4	15.5%	4	64	457	62.5%	8.1	3.5
Matt Ryan	ATL	87	5	7.5%	6	58	362	73.7%	7.1	2.9
Marcus Mariota	TEN	60	6	2.2%	10	62	464	77.4%	8.8	1.8
Tom Brady	NE	54	7	1.7%	12	56	290	60.7%	7.1	2.1
Carson Wentz	PHI	54	8	7.0%	7	42	281	61.9%	8.8	2.4
Andy Dalton	CIN	49	9	1.8%	11	52	314	71.4%	7.3	1.9
Jared Goff	LAR	46	10	-2.8%	14	67	499	69.7%	7.3	3.8
Brett Hundley	GB	40	11	4.8%	9	30	196	80.0%	6.7	2.0
Deshaun Watson	HOU	38	12	8.6%	5	28	191	70.4%	8.4	2.8
Josh McCown	NYJ	35	13	5.8%	8	29	158	69.0%	7.2	2.2
Derek Carr	OAK	33	14	-4.2%	16	61	378	72.1%	7.0	1.8
Blake Bortles	JAX	30	15	-0.2%	13	34	216	61.8%	6.9	4.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	27	16	-6.4%	17	55	364	63.0%	8.9	2.1
Carson Palmer	ARI	18	17	-3.4%	15	27	198	48.1%	9.5	5.0
Cam Newton	CAR	15	18	-8.4%	19	51	301	60.8%	8.7	2.0
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Case Keenum	MIN	14	19	-7.3%	18	38	244	67.6%	6.8	3.2
Jacoby Brissett	IND	10	20	-8.9%	20	63	451	66.7%	7.9	3.4
Tom Savage	HOU	-5	21	-11.9%	21	42	256	52.4%	9.5	2.7
Jay Cutler	MIA	-7	22	-15.4%	24	41	195	56.1%	7.3	1.5
Russell Wilson	SEA	-7	23	-14.3%	22	36	223	69.4%	7.9	2.5
Aaron Rodgers	GB	-9	24	-16.6%	27	29	143	59.3%	6.0	3.1
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	-10	25	-14.9%	23	49	276	52.1%	7.9	2.8
Kirk Cousins	WAS	-15	26	-16.4%	26	47	215	61.7%	7.0	1.9
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-17	27	-19.2%	29	36	208	61.1%	8.1	1.2
Dak Prescott	DAL	-22	28	-15.8%	25	56	305	57.1%	8.0	3.4
Eli Manning	NYG	-23	29	-18.8%	28	41	198	68.3%	5.7	2.1
C.J. Beathard	SF	-28	30	-31.6%	32	22	106	50.0%	8.7	1.2
DeShone Kizer	CLE	-29	31	-25.9%	30	33	178	60.6%	8.9	1.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	-53	32	-28.7%	31	42	178	64.3%	5.2	1.6
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	-68	33	-32.1%	33	44	213	59.1%	6.8	1.7
Trevor Siemian	DEN	-72	34	-36.5%	35	37	171	48.6%	9.1	2.4
Alex Smith	KC	-75	35	-36.2%	34	43	194	58.1%	7.4	1.3
NFL Outs	TOT	619	-	-7.1%	-	1,816	11,158	63.9%	7.7	2.6

As a rookie, Goff had the worst DVOA (-42.5%) on out routes, but no one threw more of them (67) than he did in 2017. Fortunately, they worked much better under Sean McVay, as Goff finished 14th in DVOA (-2.8%). Stafford and Ryan were the only quarterbacks to repeat in the top five in DYAR from 2016. Philip Rivers really enjoyed the out route last year, with the NFL's highest DYAR, DVOA, and YAC. The out route was especially money for the Chargers when Rivers threw it to Keenan Allen (106 DYAR). Hunter Henry (26 DYAR on nine targets) was Rivers' next favorite target on out routes, but the tight end will miss all of the 2018 season with a torn ACL.

C.J. Beathard (1.2) and Brian Hoyer (1.2) had identical YAC averages -- the lowest in the league too -- on out routes while starting for the 49ers last year. You knew we would have to work Jimmy Garoppolo in here at some point, and sure enough his YAC number was better at 6.0, though it was only on 14 attempts. Still, it's just another testament to how Kyle Shanahan's offense functioned so much more smoothly under Garoppolo.

Alex Smith is an interesting case here. He finished fifth in DYAR and DVOA for out routes in 2016 even though he had the lowest YAC (0.9) on them. But in 2017 he was last in DYAR, and only Siemian had a lower DVOA. The YAC was still lacking as his 1.3 average was the third lowest in the league, but again, they overcame that the previous year. Smith threw out routes to 11 different players and everyone but Chris Conley (35.7%) had negative DVOA, so it's not like a couple of players were dragging the numbers down. The four drops weren't as big of a problem as the nine overthrows by Smith, a total that only trailed Prescott (10) and Trubisky (11). Speaking of Prescott, he was No. 1 in DYAR and DVOA on out routes in 2016, but definitely struggled with them in 2017.

It was concerning that Manning finished last in DYAR in 2016 on out routes. He threw the shortest quick outs in the league at 5.7 yards, a number he repeated in 2017, but at least the success was a little better this time around.

Dig

The dig route is a little deeper than the curl or out, but produces better offense generally (7.6% DVOA). Only six of our 35 passers had negative DYAR on dig routes; two of the six actually met in the playoffs.

Dig Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Matthew Stafford	DET	139	1	17.8%	13	63	493	67.2%	8.3	4.3
Blake Bortles	JAX	121	2	20.0%	12	49	502	67.3%	9.3	5.6
Philip Rivers	LAC	118	3	34.8%	4	36	370	66.7%	11.4	4.3
Matt Ryan	ATL	106	4	23.4%	9	39	412	69.2%	10.7	4.4
Case Keenum	MIN	92	5	44.2%	2	23	207	78.3%	9.3	2.5
Russell Wilson	SEA	77	6	36.3%	3	24	247	70.8%	10.8	3.5
DeShone Kizer	CLE	68	7	33.0%	5	24	256	54.2%	11.9	6.3
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	63	8	24.0%	8	26	245	69.2%	12.2	0.9
Tom Brady	NE	60	9	4.3%	22	54	417	60.4%	9.6	3.3
Tom Savage	HOU	60	10	29.6%	6	21	195	70.0%	11.0	2.6
Joe Flacco	BAL	58	11	17.2%	14	28	202	78.6%	8.0	1.7
Carson Wentz	PHI	56	12	9.8%	19	38	306	60.5%	11.7	2.0
Cam Newton	CAR	56	13	13.9%	16	30	285	60.0%	12.2	3.3
Josh McCown	NYJ	53	14	23.3%	10	20	158	66.7%	9.9	1.5
Trevor Siemian	DEN	48	15	11.1%	18	30	272	63.3%	8.3	5.9
Jameis Winston	TB	48	16	4.7%	21	39	286	55.3%	11.8	2.2
Carson Palmer	ARI	47	17	26.0%	7	17	146	68.8%	10.6	2.2
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	47	18	16.6%	15	27	232	66.7%	8.8	4.4
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Drew Brees	NO	47	19	13.9%	17	25	218	64.0%	10.3	3.3
Jacoby Brissett	IND	44	20	20.3%	11	19	166	52.6%	9.9	7.4
Kirk Cousins	WAS	27	21	-3.9%	23	42	312	50.0%	10.1	5.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	24	22	140.0%	1	3	52	100.0%	13.0	4.3
Andy Dalton	CIN	19	23	5.2%	20	16	116	56.3%	11.5	3.2
Jared Goff	LAR	18	24	-5.9%	24	38	302	52.6%	12.3	3.2
Dak Prescott	DAL	17	25	-6.4%	25	48	330	62.5%	9.0	1.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	26	-7.1%	26	24	183	54.2%	9.1	3.6
Deshaun Watson	HOU	3	27	-9.5%	28	13	91	46.2%	11.6	2.3
Brett Hundley	GB	3	28	-8.3%	27	7	61	42.9%	10.6	11.3
Derek Carr	OAK	2	29	-10.3%	29	15	106	66.7%	9.7	1.1
Alex Smith	KC	-5	30	-14.1%	30	17	111	47.1%	10.8	2.1
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-11	31	-21.4%	32	16	82	50.0%	9.6	2.6
Jay Cutler	MIA	-17	32	-20.2%	31	29	185	51.7%	10.8	3.0
C.J. Beathard	SF	-19	33	-34.2%	35	11	68	36.4%	10.5	7.3
Marcus Mariota	TEN	-28	34	-26.7%	33	23	123	45.5%	11.3	1.2
Eli Manning	NYG	-46	35	-27.2%	34	38	222	44.7%	7.9	6.1
NFL Digs	TOT	1,566	-	7.6%	-	1,111	9,050	60.4%	10.1	3.6

Alex Smith completed a league-best 77.3 percent of his dig routes in 2016, but he was down to 47.1 percent in 2017. Jeremy Maclin was great for him on that route in 2016, but Maclin played for Baltimore last year, where Joe Flacco actually had some of his better numbers on this route. However, it wasn't Maclin helping in that area, as Maclin only accounted for 4 of Flacco's 58 DYAR on dig routes. Mike Wallace led the way for Baltimore with 28 DYAR on dig routes.

Stafford (63) and Brady (54) were the only quarterbacks with at least 50 dig routes. Stafford led in DYAR, but Blake Bortles actually led the league in passing yards gained on dig routes (502); the dig was easily Bortles' best route last year. Brady was actually dead last in DYAR and DVOA on dig routes in 2016. We thought that Brandin Cooks would help here, but Cooks only had 13 DYAR on 14 dig routes for Brady. The surprising leader for New England was running back Rex Burkhead, who had 31 DYAR on five dig routes. He accounted for just over half of Brady's total DYAR on digs.

Rodgers finished second with 143 DYAR on dig routes in 2016, but he only threw three of them (all completions) in 2017. Even with projecting for a full season of play, he would have had single-digit digs after throwing 49 of them the previous year. Brett Hundley threw seven digs in Rodgers' place, and had an absurd 11.3 YAC on them thanks to a 31-yard effort by Randall Cobb on one play. This data supports the argument that Mike McCarthy's offense has lost a lot of route variability and imagination, and we have further evidence in the sections to come.

Slant

Why don't we see slants more often in the NFL? There were 1,327 slant attempts last year, barely half as many attempts as we saw on curls. Both throws had a similar aDOT, but the slant produced 5.2 YAC on average compared to 2.9 YAC for the curl. Imagine that, a receiver turning his back to the defense isn't as effective as one who is running with forward momentum.

Slant Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Jared Goff	LAR	150	1	49.5%	2	29	245	71.4%	7.1	5.4
Eli Manning	NYG	144	2	13.1%	13	74	596	66.2%	7.3	4.9
Dak Prescott	DAL	136	3	26.4%	7	44	429	60.5%	7.6	8.8
Kirk Cousins	WAS	122	4	24.0%	8	47	402	57.8%	8.4	6.5
Tom Brady	NE	117	5	27.2%	5	40	357	65.0%	7.5	6.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	111	6	18.6%	10	47	367	63.8%	6.5	5.8
Josh McCown	NYJ	107	7	27.1%	6	36	382	63.9%	9.1	8.0
C.J. Beathard	SF	90	8	46.7%	3	21	207	81.0%	6.8	5.0
Drew Brees	NO	76	9	13.9%	12	37	267	72.2%	5.5	3.7
Case Keenum	MIN	71	10	31.4%	4	19	174	72.2%	6.5	6.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	69	11	9.2%	16	41	325	58.5%	6.6	6.3
Brett Hundley	GB	61	12	11.1%	15	32	242	62.5%	7.3	5.0
Carson Wentz	PHI	58	13	5.7%	21	46	292	60.9%	6.1	3.5
Blake Bortles	JAX	55	14	12.2%	14	27	212	66.7%	7.2	4.2
Jay Cutler	MIA	54	15	9.1%	17	31	222	70.0%	6.6	2.8
Jameis Winston	TB	49	16	8.0%	18	30	272	60.0%	7.8	7.6
DeShone Kizer	CLE	48	17	5.9%	20	32	232	53.1%	6.4	7.4
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	48	18	14.6%	11	22	194	68.2%	9.5	2.9
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Deshaun Watson	HOU	47	19	55.4%	1	9	78	77.8%	6.0	5.6
Aaron Rodgers	GB	39	20	6.3%	19	28	171	63.0%	6.7	3.2
Philip Rivers	LAC	38	21	-0.7%	25	42	280	58.5%	5.3	5.7
Russell Wilson	SEA	30	22	0.7%	22	33	194	60.6%	5.7	3.8
Tom Savage	HOU	30	23	19.9%	9	12	99	50.0%	8.6	9.2
Joe Flacco	BAL	26	24	-3.4%	27	35	263	54.3%	6.4	6.8
Brian Hoyer	2TM	19	25	-0.6%	23	26	178	68.0%	5.8	3.8
Carson Palmer	ARI	18	26	-0.6%	24	19	157	77.8%	4.9	6.0
Alex Smith	KC	18	27	-2.3%	26	24	153	62.5%	6.2	3.1
Cam Newton	CAR	15	28	-7.6%	28	39	207	52.6%	7.8	2.6
Andy Dalton	CIN	8	29	-9.7%	29	47	298	52.2%	7.6	4.8
Derek Carr	OAK	6	30	-9.9%	30	43	332	62.8%	6.9	5.4
Trevor Siemian	DEN	4	31	-10.9%	31	28	167	66.7%	5.8	3.8
Matthew Stafford	DET	-12	32	-17.5%	33	31	187	64.5%	5.5	3.9
Jacoby Brissett	IND	-12	33	-16.1%	32	35	231	42.9%	7.3	9.0
Marcus Mariota	TEN	-18	34	-22.1%	34	25	146	50.0%	5.6	5.8
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	-21	35	-22.7%	35	30	167	60.0%	6.8	2.7
NFL Slants	TOT	1,988	-	7.2%	-	1,327	9,951	61.9%	6.9	5.2

Slants were a nightmare for Goff as a rookie. Keep in mind we are talking about 21 plays, but his -87 DYAR and 42.9 percent completion rate were the worst in the league. Last year, he still didn't use slants that often (only 29 throws in 15 games), but had a league-high 150 DYAR on them. Only Deshaun Watson had a higher DVOA in his sample of 6.5 games. Sammy Watkins was money on slants, with 101 DYAR on 12 targets, but he's in Kansas City now.

Even without Odell Beckham Jr. for 12 games, Manning loved slants in 2017 after it was arguably his best route of 2016, when he finished third with 188 DYAR. Manning's 74 slants were 27 more than the next closest quarterbacks (Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, and Ben Roethlisberger each had 47 slants). This was a big route in the NFC East, with Manning, Cousins, and Prescott finishing in the top four in DYAR.

Only four quarterbacks had negative DYAR on slants: Matthew Stafford (-12 DYAR), Jacoby Brissett (-12 DYAR), Marcus Mariota (-18 DYAR), and Tyrod Taylor (-21 DYAR). Stafford was the surprising name in that group, because this seems like a perfect play for Golden Tate's skill set. Tate led Detroit with just 13 DYAR on seven slants. He was actually targeted less often on them than Marvin Jones, who had 11 slants, but for -39 DYAR. So many passes to Jones are contested, but quick slants were not plays where he often won, as he had five of them defensed. Another slant to Jones was batted down and intercepted for a touchdown in a whacky game against New Orleans. Mariota was also surprising to see far down on this list given his reputation for the quick, rhythm passing game. But aside from Eric Decker (21 DYAR on eight slants), the slants weren't working in Tennessee last year.

A year ago we asked why there weren't more slants in Green Bay as Rodgers led the league in slant DVOA, but only on 32 passes. He had 28 slants in barely seven games in 2017, but the success was much closer to league average this time. Even Hundley pitched in with 32 slants in his playing time, and it's one of the only routes where Hundley matched or arguably surpassed Rodgers' effectiveness in 2017.

For our final Garoppolo mention, we'll just note that the slant was one of his very best routes last season. Garoppolo had 128 DYAR on 26 slants, which would have ranked fifth in the league if we included him in this table. His 54.2% DVOA would have only trailed Watson, the other star quarterback with a short 2017 resume whom we just cannot wait to watch in 2018.

Drag

The drag route produces the most YAC (5.8) on average among the five most common routes in the NFL, beating out the curl (2.9), out (2.6), dig (3.6), and slant (5.2).

Drag Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	98	1	13.5%	6	50	388	84.0%	2.3	6.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	51	2	19.1%	5	24	234	75.0%	3.8	9.4
Josh McCown	NYJ	43	3	21.2%	3	20	177	85.0%	3.6	7.1
Aaron Rodgers	GB	40	4	78.3%	1	6	83	83.3%	3.2	12.0
Drew Brees	NO	36	5	8.8%	8	27	201	70.4%	3.4	6.6
Case Keenum	MIN	33	6	2.8%	11	27	194	85.2%	2.5	6.1
Tom Brady	NE	31	7	8.5%	9	21	129	71.4%	3.4	5.0
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	30	8	20.5%	4	14	127	64.3%	3.4	9.9
Cam Newton	CAR	29	9	4.5%	10	24	186	79.2%	4.3	5.9
Jameis Winston	TB	29	10	35.0%	2	9	80	66.7%	4.9	7.8
Philip Rivers	LAC	22	11	-4.5%	15	47	348	76.6%	2.9	7.3
Matthew Stafford	DET	16	12	-1.3%	12	20	142	55.0%	3.5	8.4
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	9	13	-3.6%	14	20	157	65.0%	4.4	8.1
Russell Wilson	SEA	8	14	-3.5%	13	14	42	50.0%	4.3	2.0
Brett Hundley	GB	4	15	13.4%	7	2	16	100.0%	6.5	1.5
Trevor Siemian	DEN	2	16	-9.4%	16	9	45	77.8%	3.3	3.0
Deshaun Watson	HOU	1	17	-10.3%	17	4	29	50.0%	6.3	9.0
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-5	18	-16.5%	20	5	25	60.0%	1.8	5.7
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
DeShone Kizer	CLE	-6	19	-15.2%	19	19	120	63.2%	2.8	6.7
Dak Prescott	DAL	-7	20	-14.4%	18	24	119	69.6%	4.0	3.1
Carson Wentz	PHI	-7	21	-17.1%	23	16	66	43.8%	3.6	4.9
Jared Goff	LAR	-9	22	-16.7%	21	30	136	62.1%	4.0	3.1
Kirk Cousins	WAS	-12	23	-16.9%	22	25	163	68.0%	4.1	5.0
Carson Palmer	ARI	-12	24	-28.1%	26	12	66	41.7%	3.8	9.0
Marcus Mariota	TEN	-14	25	-33.8%	30	9	65	77.8%	2.6	6.1
Alex Smith	KC	-17	26	-20.2%	25	27	173	63.0%	2.6	7.6
Blake Bortles	JAX	-20	27	-17.7%	24	54	340	61.1%	4.6	5.9
Tom Savage	HOU	-28	28	-69.0%	34	7	14	28.6%	4.6	4.5
Andy Dalton	CIN	-29	29	-31.2%	29	20	89	70.0%	4.0	2.6
Derek Carr	OAK	-34	30	-41.6%	32	17	98	82.4%	3.8	3.4
C.J. Beathard	SF	-35	31	-70.7%	35	9	21	44.4%	1.3	2.3
Jay Cutler	MIA	-36	32	-34.7%	31	21	111	71.4%	3.5	4.2
Jacoby Brissett	IND	-50	33	-50.7%	33	17	81	64.7%	3.2	4.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	-54	34	-31.2%	28	36	194	72.2%	3.7	3.7
Eli Manning	NYG	-56	35	-29.7%	27	36	200	54.3%	3.5	7.1
NFL Drags	TOT	101	-	-9.6%	-	799	5,106	68.3%	3.5	5.8

The drag route was not very successful in 2017. It's the first route we've gone through where most passers had negative DYAR. Roethlisberger, Ryan, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady all ranked in the top seven in DYAR, so that's still a good sign that it can be an effective play when used properly. It's just that using it properly may sometimes involve getting away with a pick across the middle.

With the way we highlighted Jacksonville's receivers in Part I, it is not surprising to see that Bortles led the way with 54 drag routes in 2017. His numbers were below average on these plays, but it was Marqise Lee with whom he found some success rather than Dede Westbrook or Keelan Cole.

Last year, we thought that the addition of DeSean Jackson could help on drag routes for Jameis Winston, who had a really good 2016 with these plays. As it turns out, Winston never targeted Jackson on a drag route and only threw nine total after having 28 in 2016. Jackson's role is a bit up in the air in 2018 after the emergence of Chris Godwin, but our next route will present the case that Tampa Bay needs to rethink its strategy with its wide receivers.

Go/Fly

This would be Al Davis' favorite section. Who liked to air the ball out deep and outside the numbers last year? The average go route traveled 32.9 yards and was only completed 25.2 percent of the time.

Go/Fly Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Matthew Stafford	DET	216	1	91.9%	2	30	552	48.1%	31.9	4.2
Kirk Cousins	WAS	151	2	81.1%	3	22	417	40.0%	33.2	10.8
Josh McCown	NYJ	146	3	93.1%	1	18	318	50.0%	30.6	3.4
Alex Smith	KC	116	4	72.4%	4	18	394	41.2%	32.9	16.7
Tom Brady	NE	110	5	56.4%	5	22	360	36.8%	38.6	5.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	88	6	15.2%	14	41	506	24.3%	35.6	4.4
Russell Wilson	SEA	73	7	32.3%	9	23	309	36.4%	33.5	2.3
Carson Wentz	PHI	53	8	25.5%	11	19	244	20.0%	35.2	9.0
Deshaun Watson	HOU	39	9	34.4%	8	11	166	30.0%	36.8	3.0
Brett Hundley	GB	37	10	17.8%	13	15	176	28.6%	34.8	6.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	35	11	11.6%	16	19	221	23.5%	31.2	3.5
Dak Prescott	DAL	33	12	8.1%	18	20	226	18.8%	30.8	0.3
Drew Brees	NO	32	13	36.4%	6	9	104	33.3%	31.9	4.3
Jacoby Brissett	IND	30	14	22.8%	12	11	150	30.0%	34.2	3.0
Blake Bortles	JAX	26	15	-0.3%	21	27	285	30.8%	29.1	5.9
Trevor Siemian	DEN	23	16	11.8%	15	13	148	33.3%	30.5	7.5
Brian Hoyer	2TM	22	17	35.5%	7	6	109	33.3%	45.5	5.0
Tom Savage	HOU	21	18	32.0%	10	6	78	25.0%	31.5	5.0
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Case Keenum	MIN	18	19	3.7%	20	16	173	8.3%	32.6	1.0
Cam Newton	CAR	17	20	11.5%	17	9	103	33.3%	32.4	5.0
Marcus Mariota	TEN	10	21	-5.0%	22	16	158	26.7%	29.5	4.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6	22	6.5%	19	4	33	25.0%	31.5	0.0
Eli Manning	NYG	5	23	-7.7%	23	13	110	25.0%	28.6	1.7
Derek Carr	OAK	3	24	-9.2%	24	22	223	15.8%	32.3	8.7
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	-5	25	-16.4%	26	20	150	16.7%	34.8	2.0
Jared Goff	LAR	-7	26	-15.6%	25	13	126	23.1%	35.4	5.3
Carson Palmer	ARI	-8	27	-23.9%	28	10	79	11.1%	33.0	2.0
C.J. Beathard	SF	-9	28	-28.1%	29	7	45	14.3%	33.0	9.0
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	-10	29	-32.6%	31	7	46	14.3%	36.6	8.0
Jay Cutler	MIA	-16	30	-22.4%	27	21	171	20.0%	34.1	4.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	-21	31	-29.0%	30	13	141	15.4%	36.5	24.0
DeShone Kizer	CLE	-40	32	-34.8%	33	25	167	20.0%	33.0	4.0
Philip Rivers	LAC	-45	33	-37.7%	34	23	114	17.4%	32.3	1.0
Andy Dalton	CIN	-48	34	-32.8%	32	30	201	14.8%	30.9	10.8
Jameis Winston	TB	-51	35	-41.8%	35	23	103	13.6%	31.7	5.3
NFL Go/Flys	TOT	933	-	5.8%	-	694	7,595	25.2%	32.9	5.4

In 2016, Ryan Fitzpatrick led all passers with 46 go routes for the Jets. Amusingly enough, Josh McCown was the only quarterback last year to hit 50 percent of his deep balls, which helped him to the highest DVOA, also for the Jets. However, Stafford was the DYAR leader after a great year of connecting with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Those two receivers accounted for 25 of Stafford's 30 deep balls. Dalton attempted 30 for the Bengals; the only other quarterback to surpass 30 go routes was the league leader, Roethlisberger (41).

Cousins was one of the best on go routes last year despite losing his top wideouts from 2016, when he ranked eighth in DYAR. This could be good news for the Vikings (and bad news for Denver) after Keenum completed a league-low 8.3 percent of his go routes last year. As for Washington's stake in this, Smith was actually quite accurate on his deep balls last year, but no one on the Redskins can outrace the field the way Tyreek Hill can in Kansas City. In fact, there's a great chance that we will be talking about Patrick Mahomes with the most attempts and DYAR on go routes in 2018 with Kansas City.

Rivers may be a surprising name near the bottom here, but the Chargers don't really have a great go route receiver unless you count Travis Benjamin, who did lead the team with eight attempts (but only 7 DYAR). Keenan Allen is better suited for the underneath and intermediate routes, while we call Tyrell Williams The Drag King after he loaded up on that route for two years.

The troubling name here is Winston at the very bottom in DYAR and DVOA. He loves the deep ball, and when you have Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, it makes perfect sense to throw go routes. However, Winston was 31st in DYAR and 28th in DVOA on go routes in 2016, because his accuracy just has not been up to par on those plays. Last season, it was even worse as he connected on just 13.6 percent of his 23 go routes. Winston was just 1-for-6 with a seventh play generating a pass interference flag on go routes to Jackson. The bigger issue was the 0-for-8 to Evans, which only featured one drop. Winston hit Chris Godwin on a go route for a 39-yard touchdown to beat the Saints in Week 17. With the way Godwin finished the season, it may be a good idea to use him out wide more in 2018 with Jackson allowed to do more drag routes, and for Evans to use his size advantage on more intermediate throws. It's an interesting offense to look at on paper, but if Winston can't start hitting the broad side of a barn with these deep throws, then it's going to be a disappointing offense again.

WR Screen

In terms of skill-based throws, WR screens would have to be at the bottom of the list. Quarterbacks completed 88.4 percent of them last year -- eight players were at 100 percent -- and that's not even accounting for drops. The -27.5% DVOA produced on these plays is suboptimal, but that's not going to stop teams from trying them out every week. It's an easy completion, and once in a blue moon, they break for big gains. Let's see which quarterbacks benefitted from a few more blue moons than their peers.

WR Screen Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Matt Ryan	ATL	49	1	14.9%	2	27	239	100.0%	-2.4	11.3
Alex Smith	KC	43	2	2.2%	4	43	293	86.0%	-1.6	9.5
Deshaun Watson	HOU	43	3	76.4%	1	7	126	100.0%	-2.3	20.3
Jared Goff	LAR	21	4	2.7%	3	22	173	95.5%	-2.0	10.3
Brett Hundley	GB	15	5	0.7%	5	15	97	100.0%	-0.4	6.9
Drew Brees	NO	13	6	-6.3%	7	31	205	93.5%	-2.6	9.8
Jameis Winston	TB	10	7	-6.4%	8	23	162	95.7%	-0.4	8.0
C.J. Beathard	SF	6	8	-2.9%	6	10	56	80.0%	-3.0	10.4
Marcus Mariota	TEN	1	9	-12.2%	10	20	139	95.0%	-1.8	9.2
DeShone Kizer	CLE	1	10	-11.6%	9	11	44	81.8%	-3.8	8.7
Blake Bortles	JAX	-1	11	-13.7%	11	12	59	75.0%	-2.0	8.8
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-4	12	-20.2%	16	7	44	100.0%	-2.1	8.4
Case Keenum	MIN	-5	13	-18.6%	13	14	76	85.7%	-2.9	9.1
Carson Palmer	ARI	-8	14	-19.9%	14	15	72	86.7%	-1.7	7.1
Matthew Stafford	DET	-11	15	-17.2%	12	38	207	92.1%	-1.6	7.7
Kirk Cousins	WAS	-11	16	-20.5%	17	24	215	75.0%	-1.8	13.7
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	-13	17	-54.8%	27	6	23	83.3%	-2.8	7.0
Derek Carr	OAK	-14	18	-20.1%	15	24	175	91.7%	-1.3	9.4
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Dak Prescott	DAL	-22	19	-35.0%	22	15	68	100.0%	-2.6	7.1
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	-25	20	-46.9%	25	14	71	92.9%	-2.7	7.8
Cam Newton	CAR	-26	21	-27.3%	19	29	133	82.8%	-2.3	8.0
Josh McCown	NYJ	-27	22	-55.9%	28	8	21	100.0%	-2.6	5.3
Jay Cutler	MIA	-28	23	-23.7%	18	36	252	94.4%	-1.1	8.6
Trevor Siemian	DEN	-30	24	-80.4%	32	6	9	83.3%	-1.5	2.8
Tom Savage	HOU	-31	25	-61.3%	29	10	24	80.0%	-3.0	5.8
Jacoby Brissett	IND	-31	26	-86.4%	33	7	13	100.0%	-1.3	3.1
Aaron Rodgers	GB	-33	27	-34.6%	21	19	89	84.2%	-0.7	6.6
Eli Manning	NYG	-36	28	-48.2%	26	15	54	73.3%	-1.1	5.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	-36	29	-28.9%	20	31	150	80.6%	-1.4	7.2
Tom Brady	NE	-37	30	-43.1%	23	17	46	88.2%	-1.6	4.6
Carson Wentz	PHI	-43	31	-62.4%	30	13	40	84.6%	-3.0	6.9
Andy Dalton	CIN	-50	32	-46.1%	24	19	77	73.7%	-1.8	7.4
Philip Rivers	LAC	-51	33	-62.8%	31	13	36	76.9%	-1.8	5.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	-57	34	-107.9%	35	8	1	87.5%	-2.4	2.9
Russell Wilson	SEA	-59	35	-88.2%	34	14	52	100.0%	-2.9	6.6
NFL WR Screens	TOT	-720	-	-27.5%	-	706	3,859	88.4%	-1.8	8.1

The players you're throwing to obviously mean a lot here because of the YAC. The correlation between YAC and DVOA was 0.86 for WR screens last year, which was much higher than on other routes. It also might be the route with the most consistency from 2016. The DYAR leaders in 2016 were the same as the DYAR leaders in 2017: Ryan and Smith. Meanwhile, Flacco finished next to last in DYAR on WR screens for the second year in a row. It's hard to believe that Baltimore's revamped receiving corps (Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead) is really set to improve on those numbers. In fact, Flacco joins Roethlisberger, Brady, Carson Wentz, and Russell Wilson as quarterbacks to rank in the bottom eight in DYAR on WR screens in 2016 and 2017.

Smith (43), Stafford (38), and Cutler (36) attempted the most WR screens, because Andy Reid, Jim Bob Cooter, and Adam Gase are all about that bubble-screen life. They actually worked pretty well for Smith again (second in DYAR, fourth in DVOA), but we'll see how Albert Wilson does on them in Miami this season with Ryan Tannehill back. After Andrew Luck threw one screen in 2016, the Colts were again pretty disinterested in the play, with Brissett attempting only seven last year. Only Siemian (six) and Taylor (six) had fewer attempts. Watson also only threw seven for Houston, but had the highest DVOA after completing all of them with impressive YAC (20.3). It's crazy to think that Watson could rank third in DYAR (43) despite only attempting seven of these screens. We'll see if Bill O'Brien explores that more this year.

Post

The post route is another longer throw in the game (average: 21.3 yards). No route produced more DYAR (2,097) in the NFL last year.

Post Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Jameis Winston	TB	159	1	70.0%	10	27	386	70.4%	19.2	3.0
Philip Rivers	LAC	150	2	62.5%	13	28	414	46.4%	24.5	8.1
Derek Carr	OAK	148	3	84.5%	8	23	422	54.5%	27.2	6.3
Marcus Mariota	TEN	142	4	69.6%	11	26	403	61.5%	20.7	5.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	140	5	44.1%	16	34	422	53.1%	19.4	4.9
Jared Goff	LAR	140	6	97.7%	5	16	323	71.4%	22.6	7.6
Andy Dalton	CIN	125	7	58.3%	14	24	334	58.3%	17.7	8.2
Carson Wentz	PHI	121	8	152.8%	2	12	248	58.3%	32.0	10.6
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	111	9	67.2%	12	19	271	73.7%	15.1	3.9
Carson Palmer	ARI	102	10	101.6%	4	12	176	75.0%	16.6	3.8
Drew Brees	NO	81	11	78.2%	9	12	234	58.3%	25.2	7.1
C.J. Beathard	SF	80	12	140.2%	3	7	188	71.4%	25.4	12.6
Alex Smith	KC	72	13	92.0%	6	11	167	63.6%	20.4	3.4
Matt Ryan	ATL	67	14	33.0%	18	19	188	52.6%	24.4	2.3
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	57	15	87.5%	7	8	109	75.0%	19.8	3.0
Dak Prescott	DAL	54	16	49.0%	15	12	167	50.0%	15.8	8.7
Tom Brady	NE	53	17	21.4%	21	22	250	50.0%	23.5	2.9
Cam Newton	CAR	49	18	17.6%	23	25	245	43.5%	20.7	6.0
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Aaron Rodgers	GB	41	19	173.6%	1	3	56	66.7%	23.3	2.0
Josh McCown	NYJ	34	20	29.5%	19	12	108	50.0%	18.7	1.3
DeShone Kizer	CLE	34	21	10.9%	25	23	224	33.3%	19.1	5.4
Blake Bortles	JAX	34	22	17.2%	24	15	155	46.7%	20.3	3.3
Jacoby Brissett	IND	30	23	20.3%	22	12	161	41.7%	25.0	3.0
Deshaun Watson	HOU	29	24	42.1%	17	7	65	42.9%	18.0	3.0
Jay Cutler	MIA	15	25	25.7%	20	5	39	60.0%	14.8	0.7
Case Keenum	MIN	4	26	-7.1%	26	12	102	33.3%	28.0	2.8
Kirk Cousins	WAS	0	27	-10.5%	27	13	96	38.5%	19.1	2.2
Trevor Siemian	DEN	-4	28	-14.9%	28	13	94	27.3%	21.8	2.3
Brett Hundley	GB	-7	29	-26.4%	32	6	35	33.3%	23.8	2.5
Russell Wilson	SEA	-9	30	-19.5%	29	19	149	36.8%	28.1	2.0
Eli Manning	NYG	-10	31	-22.9%	30	13	68	30.8%	19.4	2.5
Tom Savage	HOU	-12	32	-32.8%	33	10	58	20.0%	18.6	7.5
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-15	33	-42.6%	35	7	39	28.6%	23.0	2.5
Joe Flacco	BAL	-19	34	-24.8%	31	18	140	27.8%	20.8	7.2
Matthew Stafford	DET	-30	35	-40.3%	34	15	100	20.0%	18.9	5.3
NFL Posts	TOT	2,097	-	36.1%	-	607	7,375	49.0%	21.3	5.1

Here is another vertical route where Roethlisberger had the most attempts (34), but he improved his completion rate from 25.0 percent in 2016 to 53.1 percent last year. This is the third route (dig, drag, and post) where Rodgers finished first in DVOA, but he had six or fewer attempts on each of those three routes. He didn't finish higher than 12th in DVOA on any of the other nine routes. Winston struggled on go routes, but the post route was very good for him, with the most DYAR in the league. That's where Evans really comes in handy; he accounted for 83 of Winston's 159 DYAR. The post route has also been good for the other quarterback taken at the top of the 2015 draft. Winston and Mariota have ranked in the top five in post DYAR in 2016 and 2017. This was also the only route where Derek Carr ranked higher than 12th in DYAR or DVOA last year.

Cousins led the NFL with 199 DYAR on post routes in 2016, but he fell to 0 DYAR on 13 post routes in 2017. Interestingly enough, Keenum had 4 DYAR on 12 post routes for the Vikings last season, and Siemian (now Cousins' backup in Minnesota) had -4 DYAR on 13 post routes for Denver. Not that we would count on this repeating itself in 2018, but that's three connected players who each had 12 or 13 post routes for between -4 and 4 DYAR last year. Neat.

Comeback

Comebacks have the lowest average YAC (0.9) of any route type with at least 100 attempts, but when the play is well timed and the pass is accurate, it is nearly impossible to defend. There were 376 comeback targets last year.

Comeback Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Marcus Mariota	TEN	55	1	34.1%	6	16	153	68.8%	11.9	1.2
Jameis Winston	TB	38	2	35.3%	5	10	104	80.0%	11.9	0.6
Carson Wentz	PHI	38	3	70.8%	1	6	82	83.3%	12.3	3.2
Matthew Stafford	DET	33	4	39.0%	3	8	92	62.5%	10.4	7.4
Josh McCown	NYJ	28	5	31.6%	7	8	55	75.0%	10.3	0.0
Carson Palmer	ARI	27	6	19.6%	8	12	109	66.7%	13.3	0.4
Case Keenum	MIN	26	7	13.2%	11	14	107	61.5%	10.6	0.9
Jay Cutler	MIA	24	8	15.7%	10	10	97	70.0%	10.5	2.0
Tom Savage	HOU	23	9	36.8%	4	6	63	100.0%	9.5	1.0
Philip Rivers	LAC	21	10	8.5%	12	13	95	61.5%	11.1	1.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	21	11	16.1%	9	9	79	75.0%	10.9	0.3
Trevor Siemian	DEN	19	12	8.3%	13	11	81	63.6%	10.2	0.3
Eli Manning	NYG	17	13	59.8%	2	3	42	100.0%	14.0	0.0
Tom Brady	NE	9	14	-4.7%	16	16	122	53.3%	14.4	0.3
Deshaun Watson	HOU	6	15	1.1%	14	6	36	66.7%	8.5	0.0
Andy Dalton	CIN	6	16	-4.0%	15	9	63	55.6%	12.1	0.6
Kirk Cousins	WAS	2	17	-10.6%	17	13	98	69.2%	10.5	0.3
Joe Flacco	BAL	-1	18	-13.8%	18	11	71	54.5%	12.5	0.3
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Alex Smith	KC	-1	19	-16.7%	22	3	22	66.7%	12.3	0.5
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	-1	20	-15.1%	19	10	61	50.0%	12.5	0.0
Jacoby Brissett	IND	-4	21	-15.8%	20	14	76	50.0%	11.1	0.0
Blake Bortles	JAX	-5	22	-34.7%	23	3	12	0.0%	9.7	--
DeShone Kizer	CLE	-6	23	-16.4%	21	22	126	36.8%	11.6	0.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	-7	24	-98.2%	35	1	0	0.0%	12.0	--
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-9	25	-41.3%	28	4	25	50.0%	14.3	0.5
C.J. Beathard	SF	-9	26	-78.0%	33	2	7	50.0%	13.0	0.0
Drew Brees	NO	-13	27	-56.2%	32	4	14	25.0%	10.3	2.0
Jared Goff	LAR	-14	28	-44.3%	29	6	26	33.3%	12.7	0.0
Cam Newton	CAR	-16	29	-41.1%	26	9	43	33.3%	14.2	2.7
Russell Wilson	SEA	-18	30	-35.4%	24	11	55	50.0%	13.0	0.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	-19	31	-38.4%	25	10	44	25.0%	10.3	0.0
Brett Hundley	GB	-26	32	-53.8%	31	8	24	25.0%	9.3	1.5
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	-27	33	-88.4%	34	5	0	0.0%	12.2	--
Derek Carr	OAK	-30	34	-41.3%	27	14	47	35.7%	10.1	-0.2
Dak Prescott	DAL	-47	35	-49.3%	30	16	67	43.8%	9.8	0.1
NFL Comebacks	TOT	174	-	-6.6%	-	376	2,602	54.2%	11.5	0.9

Thinking about "DeShone Kizer comeback attempts" would usually bring up images of crippling turnovers that killed Cleveland's chances of covering the spread, but we found a different meaning for that expression here. Kizer led all passers with 22 comeback routes; that might make him a good fit for Green Bay's offense, in which Rodgers led the NFL with 29 such plays and 78 DYAR in 2016. We charted Rodgers with just one such play in 2017. The only other quarterback with no completions on comebacks was Trubisky (0-for-5). As for Kizer, the results weren't particularly good, but at least he drew three pass interference flags. The rest of the league only drew eight flags on comeback routes.

Besides Kizer, three quarterbacks tied for second place with 16 comeback throws. Marcus Mariota was excellent, especially to Eric Decker, with a league-high 55 DYAR. Brady could make that a preferred route with Decker this season. But Prescott may want to dial this one back as he had a league-low -47 DYAR. That wasn't just a matter of forcing the ball to Dez Bryant either; Prescott threw six comebacks to Terrance Williams compared to four for Bryant. Overall, these 16 plays produced three first downs and one interception for Prescott.

Broken Play

This is backyard/sandlot football in number format. We know Seattle led the league in these plays last year, but was Wilson the best at fixing a broken play? As a reminder, he was dead last in DYAR (-96) on broken plays in 2016.

Broken Play Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Dak Prescott	DAL	71	1	44.0%	2	17	200	50.0%	14.6	0.5
Matthew Stafford	DET	56	2	21.8%	7	25	242	48.0%	14.9	4.2
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	53	3	27.5%	4	19	197	55.6%	13.4	4.9
Tom Brady	NE	52	4	48.7%	1	14	168	53.8%	14.9	9.9
Carson Wentz	PHI	51	5	23.1%	5	19	216	38.9%	20.8	5.7
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	38	6	7.0%	9	28	197	59.3%	12.7	1.9
Russell Wilson	SEA	37	7	-0.7%	13	41	309	58.5%	9.2	2.8
Jay Cutler	MIA	34	8	23.0%	6	12	85	58.3%	9.7	2.1
Deshaun Watson	HOU	33	9	16.6%	8	18	177	50.0%	12.6	5.7
Cam Newton	CAR	27	10	32.2%	3	9	63	44.4%	10.7	5.5
Matt Ryan	ATL	19	11	3.9%	10	16	93	40.0%	10.8	2.3
Case Keenum	MIN	19	12	0.2%	12	23	184	50.0%	11.6	2.7
Alex Smith	KC	15	13	-2.1%	14	18	155	38.9%	11.3	7.3
Jared Goff	LAR	10	14	2.5%	11	13	135	46.2%	11.2	10.8
Aaron Rodgers	GB	9	15	-2.8%	15	15	101	46.7%	14.7	0.6
Jameis Winston	TB	7	16	-4.2%	16	11	51	54.5%	12.6	0.3
Kirk Cousins	WAS	3	17	-9.2%	17	11	70	36.4%	12.5	7.5
Josh McCown	NYJ	0	18	-12.0%	18	18	156	50.0%	14.9	3.2
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Andy Dalton	CIN	0	19	-13.2%	19	13	89	41.7%	14.5	1.6
Joe Flacco	BAL	-2	20	-13.2%	20	20	101	45.0%	12.7	0.8
Tom Savage	HOU	-4	21	-26.9%	24	4	7	50.0%	4.8	1.5
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	-8	22	-17.2%	21	11	56	27.3%	13.6	0.7
Jacoby Brissett	IND	-9	23	-20.0%	22	14	67	42.9%	9.1	3.7
Trevor Siemian	DEN	-15	24	-21.8%	23	20	119	42.1%	14.0	1.9
Blake Bortles	JAX	-15	25	-29.3%	25	13	67	46.2%	9.2	3.5
C.J. Beathard	SF	-16	26	-108.6%	35	3	0	0.0%	11.7	--
Carson Palmer	ARI	-20	27	-56.1%	28	7	32	14.3%	15.6	8.0
Philip Rivers	LAC	-25	28	-49.6%	27	9	32	33.3%	5.3	-0.7
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-32	29	-77.2%	31	7	9	16.7%	9.4	11.0
Marcus Mariota	TEN	-44	30	-58.7%	30	13	24	30.8%	9.2	3.0
Eli Manning	NYG	-46	31	-48.6%	26	17	74	29.4%	14.4	3.0
Derek Carr	OAK	-50	32	-82.7%	32	11	18	36.4%	8.8	0.0
Drew Brees	NO	-52	33	-99.0%	33	8	5	12.5%	6.0	2.0
Brett Hundley	GB	-68	34	-57.1%	29	23	57	26.1%	11.0	0.2
DeShone Kizer	CLE	-70	35	-100.3%	34	11	4	18.2%	9.1	2.0
NFL Broken Plays	TOT	-23	-	-12.6%	-	593	3,814	42.5%	12.1	3.1

Wilson's 41 broken plays easily led the league. The next closest player was Tyrod Taylor (28), whom I have referred to as East Coast Russell Wilson for the similar magic shows he once held in Buffalo. The two had very similar DYAR on broken plays, but neither ranked in the top five. That was reserved for two old pros (Brady and Roethlisberger), the two 2016 rookies who will be compared to each other for years (Prescott and Wentz), and an overlooked amateur magician in Stafford. It was in 2016 when Stafford had the highest DVOA and most DYAR on broken plays. He wasn't quite that effective in 2017, but still finished second in DYAR. Prescott led in DYAR in a sophomore season that wasn't nearly as bad as it looked in November.

Wentz wins the 2017 award for "F*ck it, I'm throwing deep" when improvising. His 20.8 aDOT on broken plays was the highest in the league, and he ranked fifth in DYAR and DVOA after a much improved season. Wentz's aDOT on broken plays as a rookie was 11.9, which was about league average (11.1).

The quarterbacks at the bottom in DYAR (Kizer and Hundley) include Rodgers' current backup in Green Bay, and his old one. As you can see, Rodgers had 15 of these throws in his seven games, which would have put him up there again with Wilson had he played a full season. Rodgers and Wilson certainly love to extend the play more than anyone in the game today, but as the numbers from the last two seasons have shown, it's generally not a great thing for their offenses when you focus on the throws that come out of those scrambles. It's often the avoided sacks that turn into rushing yards that are more effective, but that's not included in this study since there was no throw involved on those plays.

Fade

Our 427 fades for 2017 do not include any back-shoulder throws. Mitchell Trubisky doesn't have a completion percentage listed, because both of his fade attempts drew pass interference flags. We'll actually applaud John Fox and the Bears for not getting into the fade trap, avoiding a low-percentage play with a lousy -12.5% DVOA last season.

Fade Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Matthew Stafford	DET	64	1	64.9%	3	11	159	44.4%	21.5	3.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	64	2	72.8%	2	9	100	55.6%	16.8	2.4
Tom Brady	NE	38	3	33.0%	6	12	163	44.4%	19.1	2.3
Brett Hundley	GB	32	4	101.6%	1	4	72	50.0%	20.0	2.0
Case Keenum	MIN	29	5	12.7%	11	14	163	27.3%	22.3	5.0
Deshaun Watson	HOU	27	6	35.2%	5	7	72	50.0%	22.3	5.7
Drew Brees	NO	27	7	13.1%	10	13	132	41.7%	23.8	2.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	24	8	17.0%	9	10	69	44.4%	15.8	2.5
Trevor Siemian	DEN	20	9	6.0%	12	13	102	33.3%	18.9	1.3
Alex Smith	KC	17	10	17.3%	8	8	109	37.5%	30.6	3.3
Jared Goff	LAR	17	11	2.1%	15	17	162	26.7%	24.6	4.5
Russell Wilson	SEA	14	12	-3.0%	18	19	172	23.5%	18.0	9.5
Kirk Cousins	WAS	14	13	4.0%	14	11	90	30.0%	18.9	3.7
C.J. Beathard	SF	14	14	31.2%	7	4	56	50.0%	18.8	2.0
Aaron Rodgers	GB	12	15	5.4%	13	8	93	28.6%	16.5	17.0
Jay Cutler	MIA	11	16	-1.5%	16	12	112	33.3%	22.2	1.5
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	10	17	39.8%	4	2	22	--	13.0	--
Carson Wentz	PHI	10	18	-3.7%	19	18	148	29.4%	20.9	6.6
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Philip Rivers	LAC	7	19	-2.9%	17	10	74	33.3%	14.4	2.7
Dak Prescott	DAL	4	20	-10.3%	20	20	148	27.8%	17.8	4.2
Josh McCown	NYJ	0	21	-11.8%	21	9	70	33.3%	13.0	4.7
Cam Newton	CAR	-3	22	-16.4%	22	11	82	20.0%	23.3	2.0
Tom Savage	HOU	-9	23	-33.8%	24	5	28	20.0%	19.0	1.0
Eli Manning	NYG	-11	24	-19.3%	23	18	122	29.4%	21.3	2.4
Brian Hoyer	2TM	-17	25	-85.3%	32	3	0	0.0%	22.3	--
Jacoby Brissett	IND	-28	26	-106.2%	35	4	0	0.0%	26.0	--
Marcus Mariota	TEN	-37	27	-70.8%	30	8	21	12.5%	19.0	6.0
Jameis Winston	TB	-38	28	-41.8%	27	16	67	20.0%	18.1	2.7
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	-40	29	-104.2%	34	5	0	0.0%	11.0	--
Carson Palmer	ARI	-40	30	-99.9%	33	6	0	0.0%	23.8	--
Blake Bortles	JAX	-41	31	-41.4%	26	17	46	13.3%	19.8	0.0
Derek Carr	OAK	-44	32	-35.8%	25	22	58	21.1%	13.6	0.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	-47	33	-56.8%	28	14	44	14.3%	17.4	4.0
DeShone Kizer	CLE	-49	34	-59.7%	29	15	57	13.3%	19.3	8.5
Andy Dalton	CIN	-58	35	-81.5%	31	10	15	0.0%	20.2	--
NFL Fades	TOT	-18	-	-12.5%	-	427	3,115	26.8%	19.3	3.7

Naturally, the Raiders with Carr (22) and Cowboys with Prescott (20) were the two biggest users of this play. Dallas is a given because of Dez Bryant, who insisted that the team's play-calling was garbage. Carr was second with 25 fades in 2016, but was again below average in completing these throws, finishing 32nd in DYAR. Carr lost 23 DYAR on fades to Michael Crabtree, a phrase that could trigger PTSD in San Francisco when that other quarterback tried one at the end of Super Bowl XLVII. Crabtree is gone in Oakland; will Jon Gruden keep the fade in style?

Stafford saw his fades drop from 25 to 11, but he had the most DYAR on them after a couple of touchdowns to Jones, a reasonable red zone fade target. Roethlisberger, Ryan, Brady, and Brees were the only quarterbacks to gain at least 15 DYAR on fades in consecutive seasons, so maybe there's still something to be said about this route for the very best in the league. But generally, the fade produced negative DVOA for 20 of the 35 quarterbacks last season. The bottom three quarterbacks in DYAR were all from the AFC North, so we'll have to see next time if that helped out Pittsburgh's defensive stats against fade passes.

As we did with receivers, we also looked at the data for 202 plays marked as back-shoulder throws, which were much more effective with 12.3% DVOA. The leaders in back-shoulder fade attempts were Carr (13), Wilson (12), Brady (10), and Prescott (10). So we still see the fade influence in Dallas and Oakland, but Carr was much better with these throws, creating 43 DYAR. Only Stafford had more DYAR (47), but that was on just four plays. Carr could definitely continue using the back-shoulder fade now that he has Jordy Nelson, but it needs to be that kind of timing play rather than a straight up lob into the end zone like the team was trying to little avail last year.

Seam

For our final route, we'll look at the effective seam route, which is primarily just a vertical route ran from a player lined up in the slot. This can be an effective way to attack the area in the defense between the safeties and linebackers.

Seam Route Leaders, 2017
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Russell Wilson	SEA	133	1	60.9%	8	29	351	53.6%	19.7	6.1
Andy Dalton	CIN	108	2	87.0%	5	17	279	64.7%	16.1	9.8
Tom Brady	NE	102	3	47.9%	11	28	367	53.8%	19.3	6.4
Jameis Winston	TB	76	4	51.6%	9	19	229	63.2%	19.1	1.3
Case Keenum	MIN	67	5	95.2%	3	9	137	55.6%	19.8	10.0
Carson Wentz	PHI	62	6	65.7%	6	11	158	70.0%	14.9	5.6
Deshaun Watson	HOU	60	7	90.1%	4	9	113	50.0%	18.4	0.7
Kirk Cousins	WAS	55	8	44.4%	12	13	206	46.2%	24.3	13.2
Eli Manning	NYG	47	9	63.7%	7	10	124	60.0%	16.1	5.7
C.J. Beathard	SF	47	10	220.8%	1	3	110	100.0%	31.0	5.7
Carson Palmer	ARI	45	11	26.7%	18	16	148	46.7%	17.7	3.9
Brian Hoyer	2TM	44	12	201.7%	2	3	99	100.0%	24.0	9.0
Jacoby Brissett	IND	37	13	35.3%	14	11	154	40.0%	17.9	13.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	32	14	10.6%	23	20	215	35.0%	18.4	13.7
Josh McCown	NYJ	25	15	30.5%	15	10	103	50.0%	20.6	3.4
Alex Smith	KC	25	16	18.7%	20	12	150	33.3%	22.4	10.5
Philip Rivers	LAC	21	17	16.9%	21	12	81	45.5%	16.1	3.4
Jared Goff	LAR	19	18	19.7%	19	9	113	33.3%	22.8	6.7
Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	Passes	Yards	C%	aDOT	YAC
Joe Flacco	BAL	17	19	27.4%	16	7	72	57.1%	17.0	2.5
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	17	20	48.4%	10	4	38	50.0%	12.3	4.0
Blake Bortles	JAX	14	21	10.9%	22	11	110	45.5%	20.5	6.0
Drew Brees	NO	13	22	6.2%	24	12	102	41.7%	17.0	3.4
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	12	23	43.1%	13	3	70	33.3%	30.7	31.0
Trevor Siemian	DEN	11	24	5.6%	26	10	81	33.3%	17.8	3.7
Marcus Mariota	TEN	10	25	5.8%	25	10	102	60.0%	16.5	1.8
Dak Prescott	DAL	9	26	26.7%	17	4	62	75.0%	25.5	1.3
Derek Carr	OAK	6	27	-0.9%	27	8	60	37.5%	19.8	4.7
DeShone Kizer	CLE	4	28	-7.3%	31	16	134	26.7%	23.0	3.3
Tom Savage	HOU	4	29	-5.3%	29	5	67	25.0%	16.6	37.0
Brett Hundley	GB	3	30	-2.3%	28	8	77	50.0%	23.0	7.0
Matt Ryan	ATL	2	31	-7.1%	30	5	40	60.0%	11.8	2.7
Matthew Stafford	DET	-1	32	-13.1%	32	11	76	18.2%	20.2	17.5
Jay Cutler	MIA	-29	33	-52.8%	34	9	32	22.2%	18.8	2.0
Aaron Rodgers	GB	-32	34	-102.3%	35	5	0	0.0%	11.6	--
Cam Newton	CAR	-35	35	-47.4%	33	13	53	15.4%	18.8	4.0
NFL Seams	TOT	1,113	-	27.0%	-	443	4,894	45.8%	18.9	6.5

Wilson (29), Brady (28), and Roethlisberger (20) were the only passers to throw at least 20 seam routes last year. Wilson threw 10 seam passes to Jimmy Graham alone. That's notable since Rodgers only has thrown nine seam routes since 2016. He was the only quarterback out of the 35 to not complete a seam route last year, so that's just not something the Packers have been into lately. Hopefully that changes with the addition of Graham at tight end, because these can be very effective plays as the numbers show with 27.0% DVOA across the league.

The NFC South wasn't as seam-crazy as it had been in 2016, but Winston had good numbers here. Newton finished last in DYAR in a tough year where tight end Greg Olsen was so often playing injured or out of the lineup. That element was definitely lacking in the offense, but the Panthers are much deeper this season.

Summary

Finally, here is a table that shows the average rank for DYAR and DVOA among these 12 routes for our 35 quarterbacks. As you might expect, MVP Brady is on top and handsomely paid Flacco is at the bottom.

2017 Pass Routes: Average Rank in DYAR and DVOA
Player	Team	Avg. DYAR Rk	Rk	Avg. DVOA Rk	Rk
Tom Brady	NE	9.3	1	11.8	2
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	11.3	2	13.8	7
Carson Wentz	PHI	11.5	3	12.2	3
Case Keenum	MIN	12.3	4	12.8	4
Matthew Stafford	DET	12.3	5	13.4	5
Jameis Winston	TB	12.4	6	13.8	9
Matt Ryan	ATL	12.5	7	13.4	6
Drew Brees	NO	13.1	8	13.8	8
Deshaun Watson	HOU	14.1	9	9.8	1
Josh McCown	NYJ	14.5	10	13.9	10
Jared Goff	LAR	14.9	11	15.3	11
Kirk Cousins	WAS	15.2	12	16.4	12
Philip Rivers	LAC	15.2	13	16.9	15
Russell Wilson	SEA	16.1	14	16.9	16
Alex Smith	KC	16.4	15	16.5	13
Blake Bortles	JAX	18.7	16	19.7	21
Brett Hundley	GB	18.9	17	17.6	17
Dak Prescott	DAL	19.1	18	18.7	19
Player	Team	Avg. DYAR Rk	Rk	Avg. DVOA Rk	Rk
Marcus Mariota	TEN	19.2	19	21.7	29
Carson Palmer	ARI	19.7	20	19.0	20
Trevor Siemian	DEN	20.3	21	21.3	27
Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	20.6	22	18.4	18
Aaron Rodgers	GB	20.7	23	16.6	14
Tyrod Taylor	BUF	20.8	24	20.5	23
Cam Newton	CAR	21.0	25	20.4	22
C.J. Beathard	SF	21.5	26	21.0	25
Andy Dalton	CIN	21.8	27	21.3	26
Tom Savage	HOU	22.3	28	20.6	24
Eli Manning	NYG	22.8	29	21.6	28
Jay Cutler	MIA	23.2	30	22.2	30
DeShone Kizer	CLE	23.3	31	23.6	32
Jacoby Brissett	IND	23.6	32	23.7	33
Brian Hoyer	2TM	23.7	33	24.1	34
Derek Carr	OAK	23.8	34	23.4	31
Joe Flacco	BAL	24.6	35	24.3	35

Most players have pretty similar slotting in their rankings between DYAR and DVOA. Watson is someone who fared much better in DVOA than DYAR, which is to be expected since he only played 6.5 games. He had the average highest finish in DVOA, but a lot of his routes didn't even break 10 attempts. It will be very interesting to see how he does over a full season. Meanwhile, Mariota trended the other way. His average rank in DYAR was the 19th-highest since he started 15 games, but he was just 29th in DVOA rank. That's mostly because Mariota had few standout routes, and he had five less common routes where he ranked 30th or worse in DVOA. So his "problem areas" are more due to small sample size than a real concern, but we would like to see much better results in Year 4 from Mariota.

In our third and final part later this week, we'll look at defenses against these routes, as well as the frequency of interceptions and touchdown passes by route.