The Deep Ball Project

Guest column by John Kinsley

It has been no secret that Alex Smith's career, for the most part, has been defined by his safe style of playing quarterback. Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar even named a specific statistic after Smith, measuring how aggressive or conservative quarterbacks were on third down.

But something changed in 2017. Suddenly, Smith was throwing the ball downfield more consistently. Not only that, he was also phenomenal. Infamous in prior seasons for checking the ball down, Alex Smith's 2017 saw him throw the deep ball with better touch than ever before.

Even then, however, Smith wasn't the most surprisingly good downfield passer of 2017. I know this from experience because of my research on downfield throws.

Every offseason, I independently chart quarterbacks on what I like to call the Deep Ball Project. What's the catch? Every throw that reaches at least 16 yards in the air is constituted as a downfield pass. For this year's edition, Football Outsiders has been kind enough to give me a platform to further spread the word of mouth.

You can find the link to the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project here. Clicking on player names below will bring you to a more expanded section with more stats over at the Deep Ball Project website.

This is the fourth edition of the Deep Ball Project, which of course means I have been doing this since 2014. There has been a lot of numerical analysis of many parts of football and especially of quarterbacking, but there has generally been very little dedicated to analyzing downfield passes.

That's where the Deep Ball Project comes in, and it makes an effort to differentiate accuracy from completions. Completion percentage is a highly valued stat in football, and while that's included in the Deep Ball Project, a greater emphasis is played on accuracy percentage. Accuracy percentage takes a look at whether the pass was or wasn't accurate, regardless whether it was caught.

There is a wider variety of scenarios that play into accurate passes aside from the typical uncontested drop. These include:

• Typical drops.
• Plays where the receiver fails to win at the catch point despite being given a reasonable angle to catch the ball.
• Plays where the receiver fails to keep two feet in bounds or in the end zone.
• Plays where the receiver stops or runs the wrong route. (These can be subjective or hard to dissect from miscommunications at first glance.)
• Plays where the receiver catches the ball but can't control the ball as he hits the ground.
• Plays where the receiver catches the ball but has it knocked out of his hands.

For every edition of the Deep Ball Project, I have added in new stats to allow for more context. The 2017-18 edition includes much more than previous editions, but the most significant stat is Efficiency Score. Efficiency Score uses a points system that rewards accurate passes and docks points away for inaccurate completions (plays where a pass is inaccurate but caught thanks to a receiver who bails out the quarterback), interceptions where the quarterback is at fault, and dropped interceptions where the quarterback is at fault.

So how are the points handled, you might ask? Well, the further the accurate pass is thrown, the more points will be handed out. So here's how each area of the field is handled in that regard:

• 16 to 19 yards = 1 point
• 20 to 24 yards = 2 points
• 25 to 29 yards = 3 points
• 30 to 34 yards = 4 points
• 35 to 39 yards = 5 points
• 40-plus yards = 6 points

One additional point will be handed out if the accurate pass was delivered under pressure or in a tight window (where the quarterback has much less margin for error). If the pass was delivered while under pressure AND in a tight window, two bonus points are rewarded. For instance, suppose a quarterback throws an accurate pass of 40-plus yards. That's six points already. Making it under pressure or in a tight window adds one point to make it seven. Making that throw under both scenarios adds two points to make the throw worth eight total points.

Three points are docked if:

• The pass is completed but the throw is inaccurate and forces the receiver to adjust.
• The pass is intercepted and the quarterback is at fault. (Matt Ryan is proof that quarterbacks can throw interceptions that aren't on them.)
• The pass is dropped by the defense and the quarterback is at fault.

After all the passes are tallied up, the final number of points is divided by the amount of downfield passes. That results in the quarterback's efficiency score.

With this in mind, let's take a look at the final raw numbers for all 35 quarterbacks that were charted. Please note that the four most important stats to consider are accuracy percentage (ACC%), Inaccurate Completions (INACC CMP), Accurate Incompletions (ACC INCMP), and Efficiency Score.

The average accuracy rate for this year's Deep Ball Project was 48.1 percent, while the average efficiency score was 0.99. Sixteen quarterbacks finished above the average for accuracy percentage, and the same number finished above the average for efficiency score.

Yes, that is Jacoby Brissett on the top. He was the best downfield passer of 2017, as well as the most accurate. His accuracy was sensational both under pressure and on passes into tight windows, and because he had a high number of accurate incompletions (tied with Cam Newton for the most in 19) with minimal interceptions and dropped picks, he had the highest efficiency score of any quarterback in 2017. In short, he was a lot of fun to watch and chart, as his accuracy across the boards was phenomenal.

Coming in at No. 2 is Dak Prescott. Prescott's sophomore season has gotten a reputation as being a step down from his rookie campaign, but his downfield accuracy was actually terrific. He had zero inaccurate completions, and his accuracy was extremely successful against pressure and into tight windows. He took a massive step up on downfield passing in Year Número Dos.

Surprises like Matt Ryan and DeShone Kizer are at the top. Ryan lacked the stellar stats of his MVP year in 2016, but that's because the departure of Kyle Shanahan produced far fewer open windows and he had 18 accurate incompletions (accurate passes that the receiver failed to catch). The crazy thing is that Julio Jones had 12 of those 18 accurate incompletions. You don't expect a top receiver to let down his quarterback that many times. Kizer also had 18 accurate incompletions, and also had a high efficiency score because he took care of the ball much better than expected.

(Ed. Note: Kizer taking care of the ball better than expected on deep passes is particularly notable since he very obviously had no ability to take care of the ball in the red zone, when the field got shorter. Kizer had six red zone interceptions, twice as many as any other quarterback, even though he had only 43 red zone attempts, 28th in the league. -- Aaron Schatz)

Alex Smith's efficiency score was sixth. His overall accuracy wasn't spectacular, but it was still good. What really helped him was that he took good care of the football and had solid all-around accuracy percentages, which means he wasn't punished outside of the inaccurate completions.

Tyrod Taylor, like Smith, wasn't spectacular in accuracy but took outrageously good care of the football despite playing with arguably the worst receiving corps in the league, poor pass protection, and the second-highest rate of tight windows in the league.

Marcus Mariota was the 10th most efficient passer. The six interceptions dragged his efficiency down, but he was the second-most accurate overall downfield passer. He managed this despite playing with some of the least efficient receivers of 2017 (even Delanie Walker let him down) as well as being in a Mike Mularkey offense that gave him great protection but very few open windows.

Russell Wilson was solid, but not nearly as efficient as in previous seasons. His accuracy into open windows was horrible and he took poor care of the ball downfield, getting lucky on passes that should have been picked off. What saved his grade was his solid accuracy on throws of 40-plus yards, under pressure, and into tight windows.

Recent stars like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson don't grade out nearly as well as people think due to the fact that both had poor accuracy on deep passes, to all depths.

Matthew Stafford has the totals but lacks in accuracy. He forced the second-most inaccurate completions with 12, and Marvin Jones caught seven of those passes.

Case Keenum was the least efficient downfield passer, surprising since he led the league in overall passing DVOA. He forced the highest amount of inaccurate completions with 15, and constantly threw the ball to defenders, getting away with dropped interceptions. Though he didn't have the lowest accuracy percentage, the inaccurate completions, interceptions, and dropped picks severely lowered Keenum's efficiency score.

Now let's get to the accuracy percentages on every distance of deep passes.

As you may have guessed from Jacoby Brissett's high accuracy percentage, his accuracy to all distances was just absurd. The only area he struggled in was on throws of 20 to 24 yards, where he finished 16th. Even then, his accuracy in that area was still above average. The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history.

Outside of throws of 40-plus yards, Nick Foles' accuracy was lacking. The reason he ranked so high was his success on those 40-plus-yard plays, as well as the fact that he took really good care of the ball, limiting interceptions and dangerous throws.

Mitchell Trubisky is a work in progress, but he finished 13th in overall accuracy. He also showed impressive touch on passes of 25 to 29 yards and on passes of 35 to 39 yards, ranking in the top five in both ranges.

Amazingly, Brett Hundley ranked eighth in accuracy on throws of 20 to 24 yards. Outside of that, though, his accuracy to every other distance was dismal. And as expected, he couldn't even compare to Aaron Rodgers.

Next is how accurate each quarterback fared in certain scenarios such as clean pockets, pressure, off-balance throws, into open windows, and into tight windows, while also looking at inaccurate completions and accurate incompletions.

Jacoby Brissett's accuracy was below average to open windows, but he was easily the best tight-window passer downfield, with an incredible 65.9 percent of his passes to tight windows being accurate.

Tyrod Taylor was the only quarterback to be accurate on all of his passes to open windows. He was also fourth on play-action, only behind Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning.

Jimmy Garoppolo was the most accurate quarterback under pressure, making an accurate pass on every single pressure play on downfield attempts. Marcus Mariota is right behind him at No. 2. The reason his efficiency score doesn't rank higher is because he forced a giant amount of dropped picks for his sample size. Still, he can say he ranked one spot higher in efficiency than Tom Brady.

Ben Roethlisberger was the least accurate passer under pressure and into tight windows. In comparison to previous years when he was a downfield passing master, Roethlisberger's decision-making was awful last year, constantly making questionable throws to the point where he looked like he was chucking the ball up regardless if the receiver was open or not.

Tom Brady was slightly below average, which isn't really that surprising. He has not been a great downfield passer for a while, lacking the precision he has shown in the short and intermediate areas of the field. For what it's worth, though, he handled the change to a vertical offense really well. His accuracy was really good under pressure (ranking ninth-highest), and he had the most passing attempts and yards of any quarterback.

Derek Carr's quality of play takes a massive drop when he is not given clean pockets. His accuracy was 15th with good pass protection, but was second-to-last under pressure. Joe Flacco was 32nd in both clean pockets and under pressure. (This is where the "elite" jokes come in.)

Accuracy on off-balance throws doesn't mean too much considering the small sample size, but DeShone Kizer and Cam Newton (who had a great year passing the deep ball despite his health) ranked at the top.

Only six quarterbacks went the entire season without throwing a single inaccurate completion: Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Finally, let's look at the percentage of situations each quarterback was in. This takes a look at each quarterback's rate of scenarios out of the total amount of downfield passes. For example, let's say a quarterback threw 75 passes downfield, and on 56 of those passes he had a clean pocket. We would say that 74.7 percent of said quarterback's passes would have had clean pockets.

Please note that the rankings for clean pockets, pressure, play-action, off-balance, open windows, and tight windows DO NOT REFLECT ACCURACY FOR THIS CHART, just how frequently each quarterback was in each scenario. Again, rankings out of 35 are in parentheses.

Carson Wentz had the highest percentage of open-window passes to throw to (51.8 percent), yet he was third-to-last in accuracy to those areas (48.8 percent). Tom Brady saw the second-highest rate of open-window passes. Big shock coming from a Bill Belichick-coached offense, I know.

Carson Palmer's swan-song year was a shadow of his phenomenal 2015 season, but he faced the highest rate of pressure on downfield throws. Trevor Siemian trailed him with the second-highest rate, which is not surprising considering how poor the Denver Broncos' offensive line is.

Jimmy Garoppolo had the highest percentage of clean pockets. While this is a surprise considering how bad the 49ers offensive line was last year, Kyle Shanahan's creative use of play-action and misdirection kept defenses guessing and made the pass protection look much better than it had any right to be.

Jared Goff's friendly percentages aren't a surprise, as Sean McVay was historically sensational as a rookie head coach. The quality of Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett meant that he was constantly throwing to open receivers as well.

The big shock comes from the different situations faced by Texans quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage. Watson had the third-highest rate of clean pockets, the 11th-highest rate of play-action, the 11th-lowest rate of tight windows, and the 10th-highest rate of open windows. A concern for Watson is that he had the highest rate of off-balance throws (and the second-highest total of off-balance throws to Derek Carr). He needs to work on his mechanics in 2018.

In comparison, Savage had 17th-highest rate of clean pockets, the seventh-lowest rate of play-action, the highest rate of tight windows, and the lowest rate of open windows. This came with the same supporting cast, so what happened? Well, head coach Bill O'Brien went away from the play-action, read-option offense he provided to Watson and gave Savage an offense that forced him to throw tight-window passes at the rate of Aaron Rodgers.

Let's consider that the Eagles gave Nick Foles the second-highest rate of play-action when Wentz was lost for the season. Though he faced more pressure downfield, Foles was still able to get friendly reads because of the variety of play-calling that Doug Pederson provided. There was also a large amount of read-option. Bill O'Brien had zero excuses for taking away those calls from Savage.

John Kinsley is on Twitter @brickwallblitz. He covers the Tennessee Titans for Music City Miracles on SB Nation, and also writes for the Minnesota Vikings website Purple PTSD. Again, you can find an even larger amount of information on the actual Deep Ball Project at this link.