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» 2017 Offensive Personnel Analysis

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05 Apr 2018

Playmaker Score 2018

by Nathan Forster

Not every year produces multiple high-quality wide receivers at the top of the NFL draft. The 2014 draft brought us superstars Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans, along with 1,000-yard receivers such as Allen Robinson, Kelvin Benjamin, and Brandin Cooks. Far more common are drafts like the one we saw in 2013, which included only one superstar in the first round (DeAndre Hopkins), a mid-round steal (Keenan Allen), and a small collection of busts.

This year's draft is far more likely to follow the pattern set in 2013 than that of 2014. Football Outsiders' system for projecting wide receivers, Playmaker Score, is quite uncertain about the highly rated pass catchers available in this year's draft. Although one or more of these players could turn out to be quality wide receivers, Playmaker suggests that teams should skip the highly rated pass catchers and go bargain hunting in the later rounds.

Playmaker Score is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996 to 2015, and measures the following:

  • The wide receiver's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from NFL Draft Scout.
  • The wide receiver prospect's best or "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e., a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score 2.50 yards per team attempt).
  • The wide receiver prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt.
  • The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply "0" for a player whose peak season was his most recent season).
  • The wide receiver's vertical jump from pre-draft workouts.
  • A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility.
  • The wide receiver's college career yards per reception.
  • The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.

     

Playmaker Score has two outputs: "Playmaker Rating" and "Playmaker Projection." Playmaker Rating is the "purest" output for Playmaker Score: it is expressed as a percentage that measures how highly the player ranks historically based on the factors evaluated by Playmaker Score. For example, a player with a 75 percent Playmaker Rating scores more highly than 75 percent of wide receiver prospects drafted since 1996. Playmaker Projection (which projects each wideout's average receiving yards over the course of his first five NFL regular seasons) is a more realistic measurement. Playmaker Projection acknowledges that a player with a first-round grade and a mediocre Playmaker Rating is more likely to succeed than a seventh-rounder who Playmaker Rating loves. Thus, in addition to the Playmaker Score factors, Playmaker Projection also incorporates a transformed variable based on the player's projected draft position from NFLDraftScout.com.

Here's a look at how Playmaker Score judges some of this year's top prospects.

D.J. Moore, Maryland

Playmaker Projection: 634 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 92.5%

Of the four wide receivers whom NFL Draft Scout believes could go in the first round, Playmaker likes D.J. Moore the best. Moore may appear to have only average receiving numbers for a top prospect (80 catches, 1,033 yards, eight touchdowns), but those statistics are quite impressive when they are put in the context of how rarely the Maryland Terrapins threw the ball; Maryland only attempted 318 passes during Moore's junior year. Moore was also used (and used effectively) in the running game, gaining 61 yards on five carries. That said, Moore is not quite an elite prospect like Odell Beckham or Amari Cooper. Playmaker gives Moore the edge over top-rated prospect Calvin Ridley despite a significant adjustment for Ridley's projected draft position.

Calvin Ridley, Alabama

Playmaker Projection: 525 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 69.3%

Calvin Ridley is a halfway-decent prospect, but Playmaker believes that he is way overrated as the top wide receiver prospect in this draft. Ridley, put simply, does not have top-tier production even after adjusting for Alabama's run-heavy offense. Ridley's touchdowns were particularly weak for a potential first-round draft pick. As a junior, Ridley had only five touchdowns in 332 team pass attempts, while D.J. Moore had eight touchdowns in only 318 team pass attempts.

Nor is it likely that there is any other team-related factor holding Ridley's projection back. Playmaker did miss somewhat on a former wide receiving prospect from Alabama -- Julio Jones -- but Ridley is a far cry from Jones. Jones was a physical freak who ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at 220 pounds. By contrast, Ridley ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds and only weighs in at 189 pounds. Moreover, Ridley had a poor vertical leap (31 inches), which historically has been the workout metric that is most predictive of success for wide receivers (although even the correlation between vertical leap and success is relatively weak). Without outstanding production or workout numbers, it is a little puzzling that Ridley is so highly regarded.

     

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M

Playmaker Projection: 485 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 77.4%

Playmaker thinks that Christian Kirk is a good prospect who is overrated as a potential first-round pick. Like Ridley, Kirk simply lacks the top-tier production that typically comes with a player of his projected draft status. Kirk averaged just over 2.0 receiving yards per team attempt in his best year, and his touchdown rate was average. Kirk's best statistics are his rushes -- he averaged nearly one rushing attempt per game. The fact that the coaches at Texas A&M saw fit to get the ball in Kirk's hands in space on multiple occasions suggests some potential for success, but overall Playmaker is lukewarm on his prospects, given the price that he will likely command.

Courtland Sutton, SMU

Playmaker Projection: 472 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 83.7%

Playmaker and conventional wisdom are pretty much in agreement about Courtland Sutton, and Playmaker thinks that Sutton is appropriately rated as a second-round pick. Sutton has similar numbers to Calvin Ridley with one important exception: Sutton was much more prolific in terms of touchdowns. As a junior, Sutton scored a touchdown on approximately 2.5 percent of SMU's pass attempts. That touchdown rate is solid, if not otherworldly (Larry Fitzgerald, for example, scored a touchdown on more than 5.0 percent of his team's pass attempts as a sophomore at Pittsburgh). Sutton could be a good match for a team looking for a large body to catch passes over the middle.

Anthony Miller, Memphis

Playmaker Projection: 462 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 77.6%

Anthony Miller has the top-tier production that most of this year's top receiver prospects lack. Playmaker, however, has one significant concern about Miller's prospects: he enters the draft as a senior. The ranks of highly drafted senior wide receivers include some successful players, but are also littered with busts such as Peter Warrick, Troy Edwards, and Travis Taylor. Most wide receiver prospects will eagerly seize the opportunity to enter the NFL as soon as possible. If a wide receiver prospect has to wait until he is a senior before his NFL prospects are viable, that is often a major red flag.

That said, Miller was actually quite good as a junior, which makes it hard to dismiss his prospects out of hand. A smart front office would scrutinize why Miller stayed at Memphis for a senior year.

Tre'Quan Smith, Central Florida

Playmaker Projection: 428 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 92.7%

The fact that Playmaker puts Tre'Quan Smith within striking distance of many of this year's top prospects, despite Smith's low projected draft position, speaks to how highly Playmaker rates his prospects. Smith's prospects are solid across the board. Smith is the only underclassman wide receiver in this year's draft who scored a touchdown in more than three percent of his team's pass attempts in his best season. Smith also had solid yardage numbers, good yards per reception, and even averaged almost half a rushing attempt per game. Nor should teams be turned off because Smith faced competition in the American Athletic Conference rather than the SEC. For wide receivers, there is no historical correlation between strength of competition in college and success. Some of the top wide receivers in NFL history have come from schools that are a lot smaller than Central Florida. Just to name a few, Jerry Rice went to Mississippi Valley State University, Randy Moss went to Marshall, and Antonio Brown went to Central Michigan. That's not to suggest that Smith will join such rarified company, but he is certainly worth a flyer in the middle of the draft.

Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame

Playmaker Projection: 413 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 75.2%

Equanimeous St. Brown's best season was a 961-yard effort as a sophomore, which is decent considering that Notre Dame passed the ball less than 400 times. Brown had a major slump as a junior. However, historically, a prospect's best season has been more predictive than his most recent season, so Playmaker only gives St. Brown a small downward adjustment for his lackluster junior year.

D.J. Chark, LSU

Playmaker Projection: 410 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 67.9%

James Washington, Oklahoma State

Playmaker Projection: 366 Yards
Playmaker Rating: 69.9%

Like Miller, D.J. Chark and James Washington enter the draft as seniors. Miller, however, had a higher peak touchdown per team attempt rate than either Washington or Chark. Chark scored on barely one percent of his team's pass attempts, the worst rate of all of the wide receiver prospects that NFL Draft Scout projects in the first three rounds. Although neither Washington nor Chark are hopeless cases, Playmaker thinks that both of those players are overrated at their current projected draft status, which is somewhere in the second round. Even after accounting for Washington's and Chark's higher projected draft position, Playmaker believes that Miller is the most likely to be the successful professional and at a much lower price.

Below is a table of the Playmaker Projection and Playmaker Rating for every Playmaker-eligible Division I wide receiver in the 2017 NFL draft who received an invitation to the NFL combine.

Playmaker Score, 2018 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Prospects
Name College Proj. Round Playmaker Projection Playmaker Rating
D.J. Moore Maryland 1 634 92.5%
Calvin Ridley Alabama 1 525 69.3%
Christian Kirk Texas A&M 1-2 485 77.4%
Courtland Sutton SMU 2 471 83.7%
Anthony Miller Memphis 2 462 77.6%
Tre'Quan Smith Central Florida
3-4 428 92.7%
Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame 2 413 75.2%
D.J. Chark LSU 1-2 410 67.9%
James Washington Oklahoma State 2-3 366 69.9%
Michael Gallup Colorado State 3 336 70.5%
Dante Pettis Washington 2-3 299 43.7%
Korey Robertson Southern Mississippi 5-6 288 78.0%
Richie James Middle Tennessee State
7-UDFA 284 92.5%
Simmie Cobbs Indiana 3-4 282 57.5%
Deon Cain Clemson 3 276 54.3%
Deontay Burnett Southern California 4-5 270 71.1%
Byron Pringle Kansas State 7-UDFA 245 83.5%
Cedrick Wilson Boise State 5-6 238 72.2%
J'Mon Moore Missouri 4 231 51.6%
Allen Lazard Iowa State 4 215 43.5%
Name College Proj. Round Playmaker Projection Playmaker Rating
Daesean Hamilton Penn State 3 209 15.4%
Antonio Callaway Florida 4 206 50.6%
Jordan Lasley UCLA 7-UDFA 205 76.8%
Auden Tate Florida State 7 200 69.9%
Quadree Henderson Pittsburgh 7-UDFA 161 71.1%
Marcell Ateman Oklahoma State 5 138 23.4%
Javon Wims Georgia 6 135 30.3%
Ka'Raun White West Virginia 7-UDFA 94 29.1%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling South Florida 7 94 23.2%
Darren Carrington Oregon 6-7 91 24.4%
Tavares Martin Washington State UDFA 77 38.6%
Jaleel Scott New Mexico State 5-6 74 8.1%
Cam Phillips Virginia Tech UDFA 59 22.6%
Dylan Cantrell Texas Tech 6 48 7.5%
Braxton Berrios Miami
7-UDFA 44 12.6%
Ray-Ray McCloud Clemson 7-UDFA 37 17.7%
Davon Grayson East Carolina UDFA 5 6.9%
Steve Mitchell Southern California UDFA 0 0.4%
Chris Lacy Oklahoma State UDFA 0 0.0%
Robert Foster Alabama 7-UDFA 0 0.0%

Portions of this article originally appeared on ESPN Insider.

Posted by: Nathan Forster on 05 Apr 2018

19 comments, Last at 05 May 2018, 9:36pm by Adrian---

Comments

1
by wabuffo :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 12:21pm

Why does Playmaker use team attempts for WRs - instead of targets?

I know target stats aren't readily available but they do exist if you look around. I would think that stats like TDs per target would be a better indicator than TDs per team attempt. Both stats are trying to get to the same thing, but targets might be a better indicator about a receiver's ability in the redzone (for catching tough passes in tight coverage).

For example, DJ Moore has 2.5% TD/Team Att rate - similar to James Washington at 2.6%. But if a TD/Target is used, James Washington had 13 TDs vs 120 targets while DJ Moore had 8 TDs in 136 targets. So Washington has double the rate vs Moore (10.8% vs 5.9%). It seems to me this would indicate more NFL potential as a "playmaker".

Just a thought.

wabuffo

3
by ChrisS :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 1:06pm

I believe it is an attempts to normalize the results for the huge variance in passing attempts per team in the college game (536 at the 95th percentile & 241 at the 5th pctl vs about 600 to 500 in the NFL). It does seem that adding in catch rate for players should help the results, but that rate varies a lot by the type of receiver and the type of offense, so maybe it needs to be adjusted by yds/att.

5
by jtr :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 1:27pm

I think the use of total team attempts is also due to the fact that you expect better receivers to get targeted more, both because they should get open more and because the team will scheme to get them the ball. Obviously a guy who has 1 TD in 10 target all season is not as good of a player as a guy who had 5 TD's in 100 targets, even though he has a higher TD/tg ratio; he's just not as important in the offense.

7
by wabuffo :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 1:56pm

That's not the point I'm making. Both receiver examples I used have over 100 targets. I think there are two types of playmaker WRs that show good potential for the NFL. One is the speedster who gets behind the defense, averages very high yds/catch and thus scores a lot. The other is the possession type who makes his TDs in the redzone where there is less space to breakaway from a DB. In either case, I think a TD/target ratio will highlight who can make plays.

I think what's important is high TD numbers in college - independent of whether the college offense passes a lot or doesn't. Adding in the targets gives an idea of who teams go to for the big play and whether the receiver makes the play consistently or not.

But its a theory and I don't have the backtest data to prove my case...

wabuffo

8
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 4:04pm

I don't know if this is the reason why Nathan does things the way he does, but... remember that there's a difference between "this stat is easily accessible for the last year or two" and "this stat is easily accessible for every player in the sample being used to build the model, going back 20 years."

That is why, for example, SackSEER does not attempt to incorporate QB pressures.

2
by mehllageman56 :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 12:40pm

Just watched footage of Tre'Quan Smith vs Auburn and Maryland. He's obviously talented, able to make tough catches, but his route running looks really raw. I've watched Memphis play a bunch this year, and I like Anthony Miller a lot.

4
by jtr :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 1:23pm

How the heck did you write a paragraph about Equanimeous St. Brown that doesn't even mention that his name is Equanimeous St. Brown? The name alone is surely worth a round or two bump in draft position.

6
by MilkmanDanimal :: Thu, 04/05/2018 - 1:55pm

I recently had a lovely Equanimeous St. Brown sauce on Coqueilles St. Jacques, quite delicious.

Absolutely my favorite name of the draft. I mean, it's no Jake Butt, but still a solid choice.

9
by MC2 :: Fri, 04/06/2018 - 5:26pm

7 vowels in his first name alone! That's got to be an NFL record, right?

10
by LionInAZ :: Sat, 04/07/2018 - 3:22pm

Michael Hoomanawanui got there first. There may a Hawaiian or Samoan player out there with more, but I'm not sure.

11
by MC2 :: Sat, 04/07/2018 - 11:12pm

Ah yes, how could I forget about the Hoo-Man?

12
by wabuffo :: Sun, 04/08/2018 - 1:43pm

Yes - but Equanimeous has all five vowels (a,e,i,o,u). That's got to be a record for a first name.

wabuffo

16
by Travis :: Mon, 04/09/2018 - 11:23am

Eagles tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai has 8 vowels in his first name.

Players with all 5 vowels in their first names include Arrelious Benn, Barkevious Mingo, and TreDavious White.

17
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 04/09/2018 - 11:59am

Are you saying that Facetiously?

13
by The Ninjalectual :: Sun, 04/08/2018 - 9:34pm

SI.com has you covered there with a really interesting article about the guy. He's relatively well traveled and sounds pretty sharp. From the article:

His father, John Brown, had a college friend at Cal State Fullerton who was writing a book featuring a character named Equanimeous. Brown inquired about the name, and his friend said it was inspired by the word equanimity

14
by jtr :: Mon, 04/09/2018 - 9:54am

Thanks for sharing that, sounds like a guy to root for no matter where he lands.

Btw, how did you manage to use the anchor tag without getting thrown right into the garbage by the spam filter? I've never been able to post inline links without getting blocked.

15
by justanothersteve :: Mon, 04/09/2018 - 11:23am

Hmmm. I do this all the time. Here's Mr St Brown's NFL draft profile. Maybe it's the sites you're trying to link.

18
by The Ninjalectual :: Fri, 04/13/2018 - 11:47pm

I don't know! The spam filter has had a problem with a post of mine maybe twice ever, despite doing all the same things it catches others for. Maybe it's my stockpile of karma

19
by Adrian--- :: Sat, 05/05/2018 - 9:36pm

I think the Ridley case demonstrates the limitations of relying on statistics. As some scouts have noticed, Ridley's TDs could easily have been doubled with better quarterbacking (per Zierlien of NFL.com). So if those 5 TDs were 10 TDs what would his playmaker score be?