2019-20 Deep Ball Project

Guest column by John Kinsley
When it comes to the most exciting parts of football, few things can compare to the downfield pass. The simple act of quarterbacks launching the ball into the sky like a cannon can be downright mesmerizing at times, so it's no surprise that some of the most memorable plays of the 2019 season happened to be on deep throws.
When it comes to measuring a player's quality on these throws, people seem to be split. Some favor completion percentage, touchdowns, yards, or deep passer rating. All these uses are perfectly fine, but I wanted to know how accurate quarterbacks were on these plays.
As a result of these thoughts, I decided to create what I like to call The Deep Ball Project, which takes a look at the accuracy of quarterbacks on throws of 21-plus air yards past the line of scrimmage. Recently I released the sixth annual edition of the project, which covers the 2019 season (which you can check here and here), and for the third time Football Outsiders has kindly allowed me to write a follow-up.
For as long as I've written these articles, I've had various questions on what I consider to be an accurate deep pass, measured by Accuracy Percentage (which differentiates from the normally used completion percentage in that it looks the accuracy of throws regardless of whether they're caught or not). Obviously, straight-up drops are counted as accurate passes, which in turn boost the quarterback's accuracy percentage, but it doesn't stop there.
Certain sideline/back-shoulder plays where the receiver can't get two feet in bounds (with varying adjustments), most Hail Marys that reach the end zone, and certain plays where the pass was disrupted (depending on the effort from the receiver at the catch point) can also help boost a quarterback's accuracy percentage. Going further, I use Accurate Incompletions to label these plays.
On the flip side, Inaccurate Completions are counted on plays where the pass was completed but wasn't necessarily accurate. These include plays where the receiver was forced to make an unnecessary adjustment on the ball (See also: DeAndre Hopkins for the first four years of his career), but in the latest edition of the Deep Ball Project these were less frequent because I found fewer plays of this category. As a result, no quarterback has more than a few inaccurate completions from 2019.
A question I've gotten occasionally is how air yards fit into the equation on red zone plays. Any throw 20 yards or less from the end zone does not qualify. These are throws of 21-plus yards in the air past the line of scrimmage, including the beginning of the end zone.
As with last year's edition of the Deep Ball Project, accuracy on throws from the left, middle, and right areas of the field are included as stats, as are distances of the field (21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40, and 41-plus air yards); pressure splits (clean vs. pressure); open- and tight-window throws; air yards; and yards after the catch (YAC).
New to this year's edition are under center vs. shotgun; throws inside and outside the pocket; and throws against interior and edge pressure.
Keep in mind that more accurate deep passers aren't always better deep passers (and that there are numerous outliers in these projects, so certain quarterbacks don't have sustainable success on deep accuracy). Accuracy percentage docks for misses but doesn't grade poor throws, and decision-making isn't factored into it either. I use it because it's a more convenient metric for me to use than yards, touchdowns, completions, attempts, etc.
Lastly, throwaways and plays nullified by penalties are excluded from deep-pass charting.
League Averages
Let's dive right into the numbers behind the 2019-20 Deep Ball Project and how quarterbacks from last season fared. First, here's a look at the average of the numbers of each raw statistic in this year's Deep Ball Project.
2019 Deep Ball Project Totals | ||
Stat | Total | Team Average |
Accurate Passes | 712 | 22.3 |
Attemps | 1492 | 46.6 |
ACC% | 47.7% | |
Yards | 20096 | 628.0 |
TD | 152 | 4.75 |
INT | 76 | 2.38 |
Air Yards | 16278 | 508.7 |
YAC | 3880 | 121.3 |
In this year's study, 12 out of 32 quarterbacks had an above-average accuracy percentage, meaning a higher rate than at least 47.7%. In comparison, 19 of 35 quarterbacks finished above average in the 2018-19 Deep Ball Project (which was 46.6%). The main reason the rate finished slightly higher this year is because three quarterbacks had an accuracy percentage of at least 60%, whereas only one reached that mark in the 2018-19 edition.
Most of the stat averages are about the same as well. Accurate passes (19.0 in 2018 to 22.3 in 2019), attempts (43.4 to 46.6), yards (627.1 to 628.0), touchdowns (4.54 to 4.75), interceptions (2.37 to 2.38), and YAC (124.3 to 121.3) reflect this, but there was a significant difference between 2018 and 2019 in air yards (477.7 to 508.7). One reason for this is that only two quarterbacks finished with over 800 air yards in 2018, while five managed to do that in 2019.
2019 Deep Ball Accuracy
Let's look at how everyone did in accuracy on all throws of 21-plus yards, ranked from first to last out of 32 quarterbacks.
2019 Deep Balls, Overall Accuracy | ||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 30 | 49 | 61.2% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 37 | 61 | 60.7% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 42 | 70 | 60.0% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 27 | 47 | 57.4% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 32 | 58 | 55.2% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 29 | 53 | 54.7% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 20 | 37 | 54.1% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 41 | 77 | 53.2% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 27 | 52 | 51.9% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 14 | 27 | 51.9% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 29 | 56 | 51.8% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 24 | 47 | 51.1% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 16 | 34 | 47.1% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 8 | 17 | 47.1% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 22 | 47 | 46.8% |
Tom Brady | NE | 23 | 50 | 46.0% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 21 | 46 | 45.7% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 28 | 62 | 45.2% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 19 | 43 | 44.2% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 19 | 43 | 44.2% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 37 | 84 | 44.0% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 35 | 80 | 43.8% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 19 | 44 | 43.2% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 15 | 35 | 42.9% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 12 | 28 | 42.9% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 14 | 33 | 42.4% |
Drew Brees | NO | 10 | 25 | 40.0% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 13 | 37 | 35.1% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 19 | 57 | 33.3% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 7 | 21 | 33.3% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 10 | 31 | 32.3% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 13 | 41 | 31.7% |
There is a lot to digest from this chart, so let's tackle these rankings.
Yes, Kyler Murray, in his rookie season, was the most accurate deep passer in the 2019-20 Deep Ball Project. He was even more accurate than the top-ranked deep passer in 2018, which was Andrew Luck (60.0%). I'm not ready to confirm Murray as the best deep passer since he has one season in him, but he's off to a tremendous start.
Two quarterbacks from the 2017 draft class fill up the rest of the top three. Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were both incredible in deep accuracy, and Watson showed incredible improvement in this area, jumping from 18th in 2018 to third in 2019. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan finds himself in the top five once again; in spite of a shaky start to the season, his accuracy shined downfield.
Surprisingly, Baker Mayfield returned to the top five in deep accuracy even after a sophomore slump. He saw an increase in turnovers and his decision-making was worse, but 10 accurate incompletions from his receivers boosted his accuracy percentage. Perhaps a change with new head coach Kevin Stefanski will get him back on track after a 2019 Browns season riddled with problems sank a talented offense on paper.
Dak Prescott starts the bottom end of the top 10. His accuracy downfield was just 20th in 2018, but he found himself in much better shape this time around. God only knows how much better he'll be with CeeDee Lamb joining a group of receivers that already includes Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
Kyler Murray wasn't the only rookie to find himself in the top 10, as Gardner Minshew came in at seventh in deep accuracy. His combination of mobility, deep passing, and an iconic moustache are enticing for a late Day 3 rookie, and Jacksonville appears to wisely be sticking with him to see what he can offer in 2020.
This does not mean I'd rather have Minshew as a deep passer over Russell Wilson, who would've ranked higher than eighth had it not been for a streaky second-half stretch. Even still, he's arguably the best deep passer in the league with an awe-inspiring play style, and at least his receivers didn't screw him over to the extent Carson Wentz's did. Eagles' fans' complaints of the receivers dropping everything coming their way were valid, as the corps forced 12 accurate incompletions, tied for the most in the 2019-20 Deep Ball Project. As you may have guessed, this helped benefit Wentz's accuracy percentage, and he finished ninth for the second consecutive season.
Jimmy Garoppolo didn't throw downfield as often as the other nine quarterbacks in the top 10, but at least it's not worse. Much like Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins is a polarizing quarterback who generates all sorts of opinions. I've never been a huge fan of his, but his accuracy was solid down the field in 2019, as he just missed the top 10.
Lamar Jackson's deep accuracy isn't consistently great just yet, but it's coming together for one of the league's most exciting players, and a sophomore leap from Marquise Brown should help. Derek Carr himself has been talked about as a quality deep passer, and there's no argument here as he landed 13th in accuracy.
It can't all be positive though. Jared Goff fell from eighth in deep accuracy in 2018 to tied for 19th in 2019. A worse performance from the offensive line contributed to his struggles, and it's not a good look for the player with the most guaranteed money in league history. Jameis Winston climbed from dead-last in 2018 to 21st in 2019, but it wasn't enough for him to keep his job in Tampa Bay. Fortunately for him, his LASIK surgery and landing spot with the Saints could prove useful for his football career.
Aaron Rodgers' spot at No. 22 is heavily inflated by arguably the worst performance of his career: a Week 17 slopfest against the Lions where he was only accurate on three of 14 passes of 21-plus air yards. Without that, his outlook on the chart would look significantly more in his favor. On the bright side, his fall wasn't as far as Drew Brees'. The New Orleans legend barely threw down the field, and when he did it was clear that something was off.
Considering the season he had, Ryan Tannehill's placement here is a surprise. He enjoyed some big plays off deep throws in 2019, so it's not like the year was a complete loss. Still, consistent accuracy wasn't there in my charting.
Josh Allen and Sam Darnold have much work to do in terms of deep accuracy, but they're further along than Kyle Allen, who finished dead last in the entire project. Allen's 31.7% accuracy percentage was even worse than Cam Newton's 37.9% mark in 2018, and this was with a stark contrast in health between the two.
Improvements and Declines
From last year's edition on Football Outsiders, you may recall a chart where I took a look at the splits between quarterbacks who appeared in the 2017 and 2018 Deep Ball Projects. This time, we're going to look at the accuracy splits of the 25 quarterbacks who appeared on the 2018 and 2019 editions. Any differentials that show up as green are positive, and those in red are negative.
2018 vs. 2019 Deep Ball Accuracy | ||||
Name | Team | 2018 ACC% |
2019 ACC% |
Diff |
Jameis Winston | TB | 29.4% | 44.1% | +14.6% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 46.7% | 60.0% | +13.3% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 45.8% | 54.7% | +8.9% |
Tom Brady | NE | 37.5% | 46.0% | +8.5% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 35.4% | 42.4% | +7.0% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 54.3% | 60.7% | +6.3% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 42.0% | 47.1% | +5.1% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 42.3% | 46.8% | +4.5% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 31.3% | 35.1% | +3.9% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 40.9% | 44.2% | +3.3% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 48.9% | 51.8% | +2.9% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 55.2% | 57.4% | +2.3% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 45.3% | 45.7% | +0.3% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 54.9% | 55.2% | +0.3% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 52.8% | 51.9% | -0.9% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.9% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 47.1% | 43.8% | -3.4% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 46.4% | 42.9% | -3.6% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 37.1% | 33.3% | -3.8% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 59.0% | 53.3% | -5.8% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 40.0% | 33.3% | -6.7% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 52.8% | 44.2% | -8.6% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 53.9% | 45.2% | -8.7% |
Drew Brees | NO | 52.1% | 40.0% | -12.1% |
Starting from the top, Jameis Winston took a step in the right direction with the highest accuracy percentage differential. His deep accuracy still wasn't particularly good, but at least it wasn't an absolute trainwreck like it was in 2018.
Deshaun Watson finished with the second-highest differential. In general, his 2019 season was a lot of fun to watch, and it was a joy to watch him sling the ball downfield. Dak Prescott also showed significant improvement in 2019, as did Tom Brady, who did well in accuracy considering his age.
Less successful was Drew Brees, who had the worst differential of any quarterback here. It's not realistic to expect a player in his early 40s to sustain a good level of success as a deep passer, and Brees clearly had another quality year anyway, but it is disappointing to see a normally fantastic player in this category show decline. Even more glaring is that Michael Thomas, in the midst of a career year, was only targeted on three passes of 21-plus air yards.
Keep in mind that negative differentials aren't necessarily bad. For instance, while Carson Wentz had a negative differential between 2018 and 2019, he still finished with the same accuracy ranking as he had in 2018. Similarly, Russell Wilson dropped from second in deep accuracy in 2018 to eighth, which is still really damn good. The opposite is also true for certain players with positive differentials. Sam Darnold and Ryan Tannehill both finished low in accuracy in spite of an increase from 2018 to 2019.
Distance
For the next segment, let's take a look at distance splits. Last year, we used accuracy splits of 21-30 and 31-plus air yards, so we'll do the same here.
2019 Deep Balls by Distance | |||||||
21-30 Yards | 31-plus Yards | ||||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 22 | 30 | 73.3% | 7 | 23 | 30.4% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 24 | 35 | 68.6% | 13 | 26 | 50.0% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 19 | 29 | 65.5% | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 7 | 11 | 63.6% | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 22 | 36 | 61.1% | 20 | 34 | 58.8% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 11 | 18 | 61.1% | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
Tom Brady | NE | 18 | 31 | 58.1% | 5 | 19 | 26.3% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 11 | 19 | 57.9% | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 19 | 34 | 55.9% | 13 | 22 | 59.1% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 11 | 20 | 55.0% | 4 | 15 | 26.7% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 11 | 20 | 55.0% | 2 | 21 | 9.5% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 17 | 31 | 54.8% | 4 | 15 | 26.7% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 14 | 26 | 53.8% | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 7 | 13 | 53.8% | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 17 | 32 | 53.1% | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 17 | 32 | 53.1% | 12 | 24 | 50.0% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 25 | 48 | 52.1% | 16 | 29 | 55.2% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 18 | 35 | 51.4% | 12 | 14 | 85.7% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 14 | 28 | 50.0% | 10 | 19 | 52.6% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 14 | 29 | 48.3% | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 22 | 46 | 47.8% | 15 | 38 | 39.5% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 16 | 34 | 47.1% | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 18 | 40 | 45.0% | 17 | 40 | 42.5% |
Drew Brees | NO | 9 | 20 | 45.0% | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 15 | 34 | 44.1% | 13 | 28 | 46.4% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 13 | 30 | 43.3% | 6 | 27 | 22.2% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 12 | 28 | 42.9% | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 10 | 24 | 41.7% | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 10 | 27 | 37.0% | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 6 | 17 | 35.3% | 7 | 20 | 35.0% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 4 | 13 | 30.8% | 6 | 18 | 33.3% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
Yes, Drew Brees only threw five passes of 31-plus yards. Missing five games to injury affected this area as well, but it says a lot about the style of passing the Saints offense has assumed with an aging quarterback. Compare this to guys like Aaron Rodgers and Jameis Winston, who had 38 and 40 attempts, respectively.
While Kyler Murray wasn't fantastic throwing between 21 and 30 yards, he was sensational past 31-plus, with the highest accuracy percentage in this split (and it wasn't even close, though some might be less impressed with his 14 attempts here). Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson was the only quarterback to finish in the top five in both; he was joined by Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield as the only quarterbacks inside the top 10 of both. Also joining the top 10 between 21 and 30 is Gardner Minshew, who was quite promising in that area.
There's a significant contrast in Dak Prescott's splits here; His accuracy past 31-plus yards was lacking, but he was the most accurate passer between 21 and 30 air yards. The opposite was true for Derek Carr; he was only 28th between 21 and 30 yards, but was the second most accurate passer in the 31-plus category. Matt Ryan (who finished third between 21 and 30) was seen as having a noodle arm when throwing the ball significantly far down the field, though it wasn't all bad as he finished 14th on throws of 31-plus.
Matthew Stafford tied for 19th in overall accuracy, but his placement in the 2019-20 Deep Ball Project is a little misleading. His consistent accuracy couldn't meet the standards of guys like Mahomes or Watson, but in an offense that prioritized more downfield throws, he had one of the best seasons of his career. This is evidenced by the fact that he was fifth in accuracy on throws of 31-plus yards.
Case Keenum is in the project instead of Dwayne Haskins because he had more deep passing attempts. Still, no one's gonna be that impressed by his top-five ranking in throws of 21 to 30 yards considering he only threw 11 passes in that range. On the other hand, Tom Brady was seventh in the same area, and Kyle Allen (surprisingly) finished tied for 10th.
By Direction
Next, let's take a look at how each quarterback fared throwing to the left, middle, and right areas of the field.
2019 Deep Balls by Direction | ||||||||||
Left | Middle | Right | ||||||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 19 | 24 | 79.2% | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | 7 | 22 | 31.8% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 9 | 13 | 69.2% | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | 12 | 12 | 100.0% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 22 | 32 | 68.8% | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | 14 | 25 | 56.0% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | 8 | 12 | 66.7% | 12 | 22 | 54.5% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 13 | 20 | 65.0% | 6 | 10 | 60.0% | 18 | 31 | 58.1% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 13 | 20 | 65.0% | 6 | 10 | 60.0% | 18 | 31 | 58.1% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 11 | 17 | 64.7% | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
Tom Brady | NE | 10 | 18 | 55.6% | 2 | 11 | 18.2% | 11 | 21 | 52.4% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 10 | 18 | 55.6% | 2 | 8 | 25.0% | 9 | 20 | 45.0% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 10 | 18 | 55.6% | 3 | 8 | 37.5% | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 13 | 24 | 54.2% | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 11 | 21 | 52.4% | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | 16 | 29 | 55.2% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 19 | 37 | 51.4% | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | 13 | 25 | 52.0% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 10 | 21 | 47.6% | 5 | 9 | 55.6% | 14 | 26 | 53.8% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 14 | 30 | 46.7% | 3 | 9 | 33.3% | 11 | 23 | 47.8% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
Drew Brees | NO | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 9 | 20 | 45.0% | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | 8 | 19 | 42.1% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 8 | 18 | 44.4% | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 7 | 16 | 43.8% | 5 | 13 | 38.5% | 12 | 18 | 66.7% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | 5 | 9 | 55.6% | 8 | 20 | 40.0% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | 2 | 12 | 16.7% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 8 | 19 | 42.1% | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | 7 | 18 | 38.9% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 6 | 16 | 37.5% | 1 | 13 | 7.7% | 12 | 28 | 42.9% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 12 | 33 | 36.4% | 6 | 16 | 37.5% | 17 | 31 | 54.8% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 7 | 22 | 31.8% | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 3 | 10 | 30.0% | 1 | 5 | 20.0% | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 4 | 14 | 28.6% | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | 3 | 16 | 18.8% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 2 | 8 | 25.0% | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 2 | 9 | 22.2% | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
Every stat Case Keenum appears in this article is without much of a sample size, but since he had more deep passing attempts than Dwayne Haskins, he's here. That said, while he finished first on throws to the left, he only threw six passes, so take that with a grain of salt. Contrarily, Carson Wentz finished second in accuracy to the left with 24 attempts. (Oddly enough, his accuracy didn't come close to that when throwing to the middle or to the right). Mitchell Trubisky also tied for ninth in this area, so comprehend that however you can.
Ryan Tannehill was the most accurate passer throwing deep passes to the middle of the field, and though he threw just seven passes, no quarterback had more than 16 attempts (Aaron Rodgers) to this area. Three quarterbacks (Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Joe Flacco) tied for second, but it's Murray with the highest sample size of the three.
On throws to the right, Gardner Minshew led the pack, one spot ahead of Lamar Jackson. Patrick Mahomes threw almost as many attempts as Minshew and Jackson combined and still managed to come in at third. No quarterback finished in the top five in accuracy in all three areas, but Murray and Mahomes were in the proximity of doing so.
Shotgun vs. Under Center
Next, let's look at accuracy splits throwing under center and in the shotgun.
2019 Deep Balls, Under Center vs. Shotgun | |||||||
Under Center | Shotgun | ||||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 15 | 19 | 78.9% | 27 | 51 | 52.9% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | 34 | 68 | 50.0% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | 14 | 29 | 48.3% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | 22 | 44 | 50.0% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 7 | 10 | 70.0% | 21 | 52 | 40.4% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 10 | 25 | 40.0% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 19 | 29 | 65.5% | 18 | 55 | 32.7% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 11 | 19 | 57.9% | 16 | 28 | 57.1% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | 17 | 39 | 43.6% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | 21 | 41 | 51.2% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | 11 | 28 | 39.3% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 6 | 12 | 50.0% | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 10 | 20 | 50.0% | 19 | 36 | 52.8% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 9 | 19 | 47.4% | 26 | 61 | 42.6% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | 17 | 36 | 47.2% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
Drew Brees | NO | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | 7 | 18 | 38.9% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 3 | 8 | 37.5% | 13 | 26 | 50.0% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 3 | 8 | 37.5% | 12 | 27 | 44.4% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | 25 | 42 | 59.5% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | 9 | 26 | 34.6% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | 35 | 55 | 63.6% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 4 | 12 | 33.3% | 10 | 21 | 47.6% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 3 | 9 | 33.3% | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | 10 | 25 | 40.0% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | 18 | 40 | 45.0% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 3 | 12 | 25.0% | 16 | 45 | 35.6% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 2 | 8 | 25.0% | 11 | 33 | 33.3% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 3 | 13 | 23.1% | 16 | 30 | 53.3% |
Tom Brady | NE | 2 | 11 | 18.2% | 21 | 39 | 53.8% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 30 | 46 | 65.2% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 24 | 46 | 52.2% |
Deshaun Watson ranking No. 1 in deep accuracy under center is kind of a big deal considering there were questions about his ability to play under center coming out of college; he also remained in the top 10 passing from the shotgun. Just behind him were Russell Wilson and Gardner Minshew, who finished second and third under center respectively.
Certain quarterbacks rarely threw under center, so their rankings here are meaningless. Most notably, this includes Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray; the two of them ranked low in accuracy in this area, but they combined for only four passes. Murray was the most accurate deep passer from the shotgun, while Jackson ranked 10th. (Jackson's season was interesting because a good portion of his passes were from the pistol, a similar formation to the shotgun.)
Speaking of shotgun, Patrick Mahomes ranked second in this category, and guys like Dak Prescott and Matt Ryanfared well here, scooching inside the top five. Tom Brady's deep accuracy from the shotgun was also great, as he finished fifth. Jameis Winston was the least accurate deep passer in this area, but he finished seventh under center.
In vs. Out of Pocket
Now let's transition to inside and outside the pocket.
2019 Deep Balls, In and Out of Pocket | |||||||
Inside The Pocket | Outside The Pocket | ||||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 25 | 39 | 64.1% | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 31 | 51 | 60.8% | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 35 | 60 | 58.3% | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 25 | 43 | 58.1% | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 28 | 50 | 56.0% | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 20 | 36 | 55.6% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 14 | 27 | 51.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 22 | 43 | 51.2% | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 32 | 63 | 50.8% | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 23 | 47 | 48.9% | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 16 | 33 | 48.5% | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 25 | 52 | 48.1% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 24 | 50 | 48.0% | 5 | 6 | 83.3% |
Tom Brady | NE | 23 | 48 | 47.9% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 21 | 45 | 46.7% | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 19 | 42 | 45.2% | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 19 | 42 | 45.2% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 31 | 70 | 44.3% | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 15 | 34 | 44.1% | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 18 | 41 | 43.9% | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 7 | 16 | 43.8% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 26 | 60 | 43.3% | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 18 | 42 | 42.9% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 33 | 77 | 42.9% | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 9 | 22 | 40.9% | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 9 | 22 | 40.9% | 12 | 29 | 41.4% |
Drew Brees | NO | 9 | 24 | 37.5% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 13 | 35 | 37.1% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 7 | 19 | 36.8% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 13 | 38 | 34.2% | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 10 | 31 | 32.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Josh Allen | BUF | 14 | 48 | 29.2% | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
This is tricky because while four quarterbacks technically tied for first in accuracy outside the pocket, Kirk Cousins, who finished fifth, had a higher sample size than those four quarterbacks combined. In other words, the data is extremely unreliable for the top four. Jimmy Garoppolo and Mason Rudolph were the only two quarterbacks to have zero attempts outside the pocket.
Obviously, the more mobile quarterbacks have more of a sample size of plays outside the pocket, but this is yet another category where Kyler Murray ranked No. 1 in accuracy. In fact, the seven most accurate deep passers from this year's project are in the exact same order in this category.
This was one area where Josh Allen really struggled with precision, as he was the least accurate quarterback inside the pocket, the only quarterback under 30%. His accuracy outside the pocket was much better, however. Inside the pocket was also an area where Lamar Jackson fared better than outside, ranking ninth and 12th respectfully.
Pressure
Next let's look at arguably the most important part of playing quarterback: playing under pressure. The stats we'll use here are Clean (or Without Pressure), Pressure, Interior Pressure, and Edge Pressure.
2019 Deep Balls With and Without Pressure | |||||||
Clean | Pressure | ||||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 26 | 41 | 63.4% | 6 | 17 | 35.3% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 23 | 37 | 62.2% | 14 | 24 | 58.3% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 12 | 20 | 60.0% | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 16 | 27 | 59.3% | 6 | 20 | 30.0% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 27 | 46 | 58.7% | 15 | 24 | 62.5% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 15 | 27 | 55.6% | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 17 | 31 | 54.8% | 14 | 18 | 77.8% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 17 | 31 | 54.8% | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 22 | 41 | 53.7% | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 21 | 40 | 52.5% | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 23 | 44 | 52.3% | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
Tom Brady | NE | 22 | 43 | 51.2% | 1 | 7 | 14.3% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 6 | 12 | 50.0% | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 17 | 34 | 50.0% | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 16 | 32 | 50.0% | 3 | 11 | 27.3% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 22 | 45 | 48.9% | 15 | 39 | 38.5% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 16 | 33 | 48.5% | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 26 | 54 | 48.1% | 15 | 23 | 65.2% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 18 | 38 | 47.4% | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | 0 | 6 | 0.0% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 13 | 28 | 46.4% | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
Drew Brees | NO | 10 | 22 | 45.5% | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 29 | 64 | 45.3% | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 12 | 28 | 42.9% | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 12 | 28 | 42.9% | 1 | 9 | 11.1% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 12 | 29 | 41.4% | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 9 | 22 | 40.9% | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 7 | 18 | 38.9% | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 12 | 31 | 38.7% | 1 | 10 | 10.0% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 12 | 33 | 36.4% | 16 | 29 | 55.2% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 12 | 38 | 31.6% | 7 | 19 | 36.8% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 8 | 27 | 29.6% | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
One player that comes to mind when contrasting accuracy with and without pressure is Baker Mayfield. In his sophomore season he was the most accurate deep passer without pressure, but with pressure his accuracy fell to 22nd. On the other hand, quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Philip Rivers fared much better in the rankings under pressure than they did without.
Not only was Kyler Murray the most accurate deep passer under pressure, he was the most accurate by a significant margin (77.8% compared to second-place Lamar Jackson at 66.7%). It just goes to show how incredible Murray's accuracy was under duress behind an offensive line that certainly gave him enough practice.
2019 Deep Balls, Interior vs. Edge Pressure | |||||||
Interior Pressure | Edge Pressure | ||||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 4 | 5 | 80.0% | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 10 | 13 | 76.9% | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 7 | 11 | 63.6% | 8 | 28 | 28.6% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 6 | 10 | 60.0% | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | 10 | 11 | 90.9% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 3 | 8 | 37.5% | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
Tom Brady | NE | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 2 | 9 | 22.2% | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 1 | 5 | 20.0% | 0 | 5 | 0.0% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 1 | 5 | 20.0% | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 1 | 8 | 12.5% | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
Drew Brees | NO | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
In terms of play against interior pressure, Deshaun Watson was the most accurate deep passer (though with only three attempts). A much larger sample comes from Russell Wilson, in second place with 10 accurate passes on 13 attempts. Lamar Jackson, who was the second-most accurate deep passer under pressure, was also the fourth-most accurate under interior pressure, while Jacoby Brissett was a pleasant surprise at No. 3.
Yet again, Kyler Murray leads another stat, this time in deep accuracy against edge pressure. No one was close to touching his 90.9% accuracy rate, though fellow rookie Daniel Jones impressed by tying for second with the largest sample size of the three quarterbacks that finished in that same spot. If you needed any indication as to why the Buccaneers drafted tackle Tristan Wirfs, consider that Jameis Winston faced edge pressure on 28 of his deep attempts (Watson was second with 19).
Open and Tight Windows
Finally, let's look at open-window and tight-window passing. Open-window throws essentially include plays where the receivers provided clear separation and more room for error for the quarterback, whereas tight-window throws include plays with extremely tight coverage without much in the way of separation.
2019 Deep Balls, Open and Tight Windows | |||||||
Open Windows | Tight Windows | ||||||
Name | Team | ACC | ATT | ACC% | ACC | ATT | ACC% |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | 28 | 32 | 87.5% | 9 | 29 | 31.0% |
Baker Mayfield | CLE | 19 | 22 | 86.4% | 13 | 36 | 36.1% |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 12 | 14 | 85.7% | 7 | 29 | 24.1% |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | 23 | 27 | 85.2% | 19 | 43 | 44.2% |
Gardner Minshew | JAX | 9 | 11 | 81.8% | 11 | 26 | 42.3% |
Kyler Murray | ARI | 16 | 20 | 80.0% | 14 | 29 | 48.3% |
Jacoby Brissett | IND | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | 5 | 19 | 26.3% |
Carson Wentz | PHI | 18 | 24 | 75.0% | 9 | 28 | 32.1% |
Dak Prescott | DAL | 15 | 21 | 71.4% | 14 | 32 | 43.8% |
Tom Brady | NE | 12 | 17 | 70.6% | 11 | 33 | 33.3% |
Case Keenum | WAS | 7 | 10 | 70.0% | 1 | 7 | 14.3% |
Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | 11 | 31 | 35.5% |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 16 | 24 | 66.7% | 25 | 53 | 47.2% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | 12 | 32 | 37.5% |
Joe Flacco | DEN | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | 3 | 15 | 20.0% |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 19 | 29 | 65.5% | 16 | 51 | 31.4% |
Philip Rivers | LAC | 15 | 23 | 65.2% | 13 | 39 | 33.3% |
Sam Darnold | NYJ | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | 5 | 19 | 26.3% |
Derek Carr | OAK | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | 7 | 20 | 35.0% |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 15 | 24 | 62.5% | 14 | 32 | 43.8% |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 16 | 26 | 61.5% | 11 | 21 | 52.4% |
Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 11 | 18 | 61.1% | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
Daniel Jones | NYG | 11 | 18 | 61.1% | 8 | 26 | 30.8% |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | 10 | 17 | 58.8% | 14 | 30 | 46.7% |
Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | 6 | 25 | 24.0% |
Jameis Winston | TB | 18 | 32 | 56.3% | 19 | 52 | 36.5% |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 10 | 18 | 55.6% | 5 | 17 | 29.4% |
Drew Brees | NO | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
Josh Allen | BUF | 13 | 24 | 54.2% | 6 | 33 | 18.2% |
Jared Goff | LAR | 11 | 21 | 52.4% | 8 | 22 | 36.4% |
Mason Rudolph | PIT | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | 5 | 20 | 25.0% |
Kyle Allen | CAR | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | 8 | 26 | 30.8% |
No surprise that the league's best quarterback ranked first in deep throws to open receivers. Patrick Mahomes just barely finished ahead of second-place Baker Mayfield, who finished a hair above third-place Matthew Stafford. Not far behind is Deshaun Watson at fourth, and other quality deep passers such as Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz finished inside the top 10 as well.
Somehow, this was a stat where Kyle Allen exceeded expectations, but in the worst way possible. Not only was Allen the least accurate deep passer to open receivers, he was the least accurate by a long shot, being the only quarterback to fail to reach a 45% accuracy rate. Mason Rudolph was also quite bad; he was the only other passer with an accurate rate under 50% on open-window throws.
Tight-window throws are where this gets a little more interesting. While Carson Wentz ranked much lower than expected, I don't think throwing to receivers who offered extremely little in the way of separation gave him any favors. Hopefully the addition of rookie Jalen Reagor and the return of DeSean Jackson help fix that. Patrick Mahomessurprisingly finished 19th in this area, though playing hurt for a good portion of the season clearly had an effect on him.
Matt Ryan was the most accurate deep passer into tight windows, with the help of someone as great as Julio Jones. Kyler Murray finished second in this area, proving the quality of his season as a deep passer wasn't just the product of many open looks. The top two MVP candidates, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson, also finished inside the top four, and Deshaun Watson was the only quarterback to finish in the top five in accuracy in both open- and tight-window throws.
While Case Keenum finished as the least accurate tight-window passer, second-to-last Josh Allen with a much larger sample. Allen has been the target of heavy criticism for his accuracy, especially his deep passing, but the addition of Stefon Diggs will hopefully alleviate some of his accuracy woes. On the other hand, Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott both excelled here, as the two tied for sixth in accuracy.
John Kinsley writes for Dynasty League Football. He also covers the Panthers for The Riot Report, the 49ers for 49ers Hub, and the Dolphins for The Phinsider.
1 With and Without Pressure…
With and Without Pressure stats are the most interesting, to me.
Given a clean pocket, professional QBs are - surprise, surprise! - pretty accurate throwers.
Those under pressure stats, on the other hand, match in many ways the "eye test" of top quality throwers versus journeymen.
Not that this stat can't be misleading in it's own right. For starters, sample sizes are pretty small in some instances. Then there's also QB behaviour. For example, how many of Brady's 7 "under pressure" deep ball throws were actually throw aways to avoid a sack, launched in the general vicinity of somewhere where football is occasionally played, regardless of the presence of any current football players? (Cue "my guy ran the wrong route".)
Such factors aside, I think it's this With Pressure stat that really tells the story of who are the most dangerous deep ball throwers in the NFL.
2 All throwaways were excluded from being charted
So all seven of Brady's deep passers under pressure were intended for receivers.
13 One thing Brady has always…
One thing Brady has always been good at is targeting the calfs of eligible "receivers" when under pressure. Not sure how well that translates to deep throws, though.
3 I have to think a lot of…
I have to think a lot of this depends on offensive system.
4 Kyler Murray.
This confirms that Murray had a great year, especially considering how bad the O-line was.
Look for a near MVP type year with better weapons and more experience.
Also, who would have thought Brees would have been so poor in long passing attempts? Even NO fans probably wouldn't have noticed that.
The trend seems to be that Murray, Maholmes and Watson are the top 3. Bodes well for Murray going forward.
6 I only really get to watch…
I only really get to watch the Saints when they're in primetime or the late afternoon slot, but I've thought it's pretty clear that Brees can barely throw downfield at this point, and that the Saints basically don't ask him to. I'm glad to see charting stats confirm that I'm not just seeing things, or that it's not confirmation bias, etc.
Brees deserves tremendous credit though for maintaining remarkable accuracy and timing on the throws he does still make. Like, Peyton Manning is possibly the greatest QB of all time, but when his arm was shot he was bad to all areas of the field.
10 It would be interesting to…
It would be interesting to look at the velocity+accuracy stats for Manning pre-neck surgery, post-neck surgery, and after the leg injuries in 2014-2015 (torn quad, torn plantar fascia) that finished him.
15 Yeah, it's definitely true…
Yeah, it's definitely true that Manning was dealing with a lot more than just aging and diminished arm strength and that would have made any possible adjustment way more difficult.
14 Brees' deep ball
I wonder if his injury had anything to do with it. It would be pretty hard to tell, since he was injured early in week 2--he would have had only a couple of attempts in week 1, so small sample size and all. My worry--and that of many Saints fans--is that I seem to remember the misses being underthrows--which means that his arm strength is going. However, since like Manning, Brady, and others, his accuracy and knowledge is more important than his arm strength, we will see if it really affects him this year. It could be that allowing his hand to completely heal or (more likely) his brain knowing and trusting that his hand is completely healed will allow him to be more accurate on those deep passes. They aren't really a feature of the Saints game plan, anyway--but those 10-20 yard passes to Michael Thomas are.
28 maybe I'm remembering it…
maybe I'm remembering it wrong, but I thought the crazy MNF game against the Texans from week one involved him hitting some deep shots (Texans scored to take the lead with virtually no time left, then the Saints somehow got in field goal range at the gun- a kind of comeback I hardly ever remember seeing until fairly recently, but seems a lot more common nowadays; same thing happened to the Seahawks against the Falcons in Russell Wilson's rookie season, and almost happened with Mahomes against the Pats in the AFC title game last season). Regardless, the Saints were clearly avoiding having Brees throw deep in the playoff game against the Vikings, Taysom Hill came in the one time they took a shot at one
5 reliability??
Bill James way back early in his career had the best comment here. "Any measurement that shows so-and-so is good/bad at such-and-such when all other stats and every eyeball test tell us that so-and-so is actually bad/good at such-and-such is by definition a faulty measurement". (OK, paraphrasing, but only slightly) One clear sign that such-and-such actually is truly measuring such-and-such is that the same guys will measure pretty much the relative same season-in, season-out.
So if Tom Brady actually has a good upcoming season throwing deep balls in Arians' offense this year, I will eat crow next year. And apologize.
I expect I won't.
7 It's interesting to me that…
It's interesting to me that Brady bounced back from a very poor season throwing deep in 2018 to be league average in accuracy '19. It's so hard to make projections due to his age, and maybe he needs to worry about his pitch count, but... if he's league average in terms of deep accuracy again next season with those receivers, and he makes better decisions than Jameis, he could have a pretty damn good year, no?
8 Could be. Brady didn't have…
Could be. Brady didn't have a good downfield target in 2019 after Josh Gordon imploded again, so better personnel could change his numbers quite a bit.
On the other hand, the With/Without Pressure and <30yds/>30yds splits aren't encouraging. You could read those as suggesting that when he had time to set and step into a throw and was targeting a receiver under 30 yards away, Brady was fine, but otherwise he's below average. Not saying that's reality because football's complicated and scheme and player personnel matter.
Anyway, I doubt Arians will be looking for Brady to throw a lot of home run shots. He may throw a few more in there than McDaniels because I recall the deep ball is something Arians tries to work into the game plan a few times every game, but that's not Brady's strength and I'm sure Arians' smart enough to use Brady for what he's best at, reading D's pre-snap and getting the ball to guys quickly.
16 Historically, Brady has…
Historically, Brady has actually been a reasonably good deep-ball passer when he has good deep-ball receivers (e.g. Moss or Cooks).
Obviously it’s impossible to predict exactly how much age-related decline he will experience this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady improve simply because he’ll be targeting Mike Evans deep downfield instead of a one-legged Mohammed Sanu.
17 Deep Ball Brady.
Brady hasn't had good touch on his deep ball in over five years, maybe more. He just can't get it there with accuracy and zip anymore.
I'm an Arizona fan and knowing Arians, he'll adjust his scheme to fit Brady's strengths, short and intermediate passes. Brady will be fine. It's more a matter of his skill position players holding up their end of the bargain and the defense making leads stand up.
At least Brady will have a competent offense to work with this year. He should have left NE years ago and maybe he'd have more fun.
Belichick will struggle this year with a project QB and lackluster supporting cast in a weak AFC Least. I'll actually be happy for Brady this year.
18 Game Score.
There are faults within James' system.
If you know what MLB pitcher games scores are, I believe Kerry Woods' 20K game is the highest rated game ever. I'm sorry, but having watched Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez in the 90's, that Kerry Woods game is nowhere near as dominant as what those two did. For argument's sake, you could throw in Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens in there as well.
20 Saw Maddux throw a 2 hit…
Saw Maddux throw a 2 hit shutout once in Atlanta, on less than a 100 pitches, iirc. Took about an hour and forty five minutes, and I don't think he needed a shower.
29 Looks like this is the game:…
Looks like this is the game:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN199508200.shtml
Took an hour-fifty and was only 88(!) pitches. The Braves' batters helped out with the time, too, since they only faced 94 pitches, but still. What a monster.
9 The sample sizes are too…
The sample sizes are too small to provide any notable confidence in any conclusion. A few inFopportune gusts of wind on a couple Sundays can have pretty pronounced effects.1
11 They can occasionally bring…
They can occasionally bring a Winston pass back towards the intended receiver. =)
23 I do agree that the sample sizes are pretty small
But that's also what's fun about this. Certain QBs don't rank as high in accuracy the next season, so there are major outliers, but you can also expect consistency from guys like Wilson, Ryan, and now Mahomes since he's established himself as a top QB through his first three seasons. It can be random, but there's something about surprise QB rankings that I like.
As for weather effects, I do try to keep those in mind, though unfortunately when it comes to adjusting accuracy rankings there's not much I can do with those. Fortunately, the data I've come across is pretty consistent in that no QB's accuracy percentage was greatly affected by one sloppy weather game, so if there ever comes a point where that comes into play and does significantly affect accuracy rankings, I'll make a note about that and add context to the QB's rankings.
24 With samples this small, it…
With samples this small, it does"t have to be a game of sloppy weather. A windy quarter or two while the qb's team is trailing might have a notable effect.
27 This is a good point
I think one game where I saw that have an effect was in 2017 when the Chiefs and Jets played. Alex Smith's passes were noticeably way off, and the wind there indeed played a part in how the passes would come out.
I can't remember if any game like that happened last year, or at least as consistently as that aforementioned game.
12 Philip Rivers
.. is going to be a test case for this project for sure. Time running short, and he goes to a better (?) o-line and a significantly poorer receiving corps.
19 Rivers.
At this point, I don't think it matters. Rivers' health and ability to perform at a high level are now in question.
He hasn't been "good" in years, even when he had weapons in San Diego.
Brady at this point is a better option, even though he's older. He takes care of his body to the point that he's probably as healthy as a 32-year old.
21 Accuracy vs receiver adjustment?
Just curious: can you distinguish between "QB made accurate deep throw" and "QB made bad throw but receiver made adjustment to reach it"?
22 Sure
So suppose a QB makes a regular throw in stride down the field. That alone is an accurate pass. Of course, that description can come with a variety of passes. Adjustments don't necessarily mean the passes were inaccurate. For example, back shoulder throws on the sideline, for the most part, will be marked as accurate passes. It's really for plays where the receiver has a lot of room to run in open space yet has to go out of his way to make an adjustment on a ball when he could've been led more. Accuracy can be subjective so not everyone will have the same criteria, but really adjustments are perfectly fine as long as it's not limiting how many yards the receiver can get after the catch.
25 Can I translate this article?
Hello. I’m big fan of football in korea. I really love this analysis. So I want to share it with korean fans. It’s not for any commercial reasons, just for share this interesting article.
And what’s the matter with drew Brees? He’s just getting old and lose his arm strength? Or saints has no deep threat was the matter?
26 Thanks, go for it if you can!
Michael Thomas' average depth of target was also extremely low in 2019, lower than literally all of his peers, so the way he's been used affects that. Can say Brees didn't really have anyone close to Thomas' level on the rest of the receiving corps. At the same time however, yeah, he's getting old. And it's perfectly fine. You're not expected to even be a starting caliber player at the age of 41 and yet he's still hanging around as the starter in New Orleans. A decline in arm strength is natural for someone his age, though it does suck to see a great deep passer in the past decline in accuracy.
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29 comments, Last at 17 Jun 2020, 9:38am