Stat Analysis
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2019 Offensive Line Continuity Scores

Indianapolis Colts OL Braden Smith
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Two AFC South teams at the top of the offensive line continuity score tables for 2019 are notable not just for the stability they achieved, but for the improvement they both showed from 2018 -- in one case, an unprecedented improvement. And yet, neither was able to make the playoffs.

Offensive line continuity scores were originally developed by Jason McKinley in the early days of FO (when FO Almanac was still Pro Football Prospectus) and we have since gone back and calculated it for every team since 1999. The continuity scores are based on three variables: number of starters used; number of week-to-week changes in starting lineups; and the longest starting streak of any one five-man unit. A team can earn a maximum of 16 points in any one category (one point per game), meaning a team that started the same five linemen in all 16 games would get a perfect score of 48. Hypothetically, if a team started five brand new linemen every week of the year, they would get a "perfect" score of -57, though of course nobody has ever come close to that. The worst continuity score on record belongs to the 2015 New England Patriots at 15.

The 2019 Indianapolis Colts became the 39th team in the past 21 seasons to post a perfect Continuity Score of 48 as the quintet of left tackle Anthony Castonzo, left guard Quenton Nelson, center Ryan Kelly, right guard Mark Glowinski, and right tackle Braden Smith started every game. The Colts' division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars were nearly perfect themselves. Will Richardson started the first two games at left tackle, then Cam Robinson started the final 14 after recovering from a knee injury. Jacksonville's four other starters -- left guard Andrew Norwell, center Brandon Linder, right guard A.J. Cann, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor -- were each in the lineup ever week of the season. Their continuity score of 44 was tied with the Green Bay Packers for second in the league. (The Packers, like the Jaguars, were perfect at four positions. At left guard, Lane Taylor started the first two games of the year before tearing his biceps, with rookie Elgton Jenkins filling in the rest of the year.)

What's most remarkable for Indianapolis and Jacksonville is how little continuity either team had on the offensive line in 2018. One year ago, the Jaguars started 12 different linemen and were third-worst with a continuity score of 22; the Colts weren't much better, with 11 different starters and a continuity score of 24.

Indianapolis and Jacksonville both doubled their continuity scores in 2019. The Colts' jump from 24 to 48 was the biggest we have ever measured; the Jaguars' leap from 22 to 44 was also in the top five.

Biggest Year-to-Year Improvements in Continuity Score, 2000-2019
Year Team Continuity Score,
Yr-1
Wins,
Yr-1
Continuity
Score
Dif Wins Dif Continuity Score,
Yr+1
Wins,
Yr+1
Dif,
Yr+1
2019 IND 24 10 48 +24 7 -3 -- -- --
2016 NE 15 12 38 +23 14 +2 29 13 -1
2003 GB 26 12 48 +22 10 -2 36 10 +0
2019 JAX 22 5 44 +22 6 +1 -- -- --
2004 PIT 27 6 48 +21 15 +9 36 11 -4
2008 CHI 28 7 48 +20 9 +2 33 7 -2
2015 MIN 28 7 48 +20 11 +4 23 8 -3
2012 WAS 23 5 43 +20 10 +5 48 3 -7
2005 TEN 26 5 45 +19 4 -1 34 8 +4
2007 SEA 26 9 45 +19 10 +1 26 4 -6
2005 CAR 29 7 48 +19 11 +4 36 8 -1
2003 STL 29 7 48 +19 12 +5 25 8 -4
AVERAGE   25.3 7.7 45.9 +20.7 9.9 +2.3 32.6 8.0 -2.4

Unfortunately, despite those improvements, neither team made the playoffs in 2019. The Colts actually won three fewer games with a perfect offensive line than they had the year before when their line was a total mess, the rare team that failed to win more games despite a huge boost in continuity. (Of course, they were also the rare team whose franchise quarterback retired just before the season.) The Jaguars did win one more game in 2019 than they had the year before, but they were still eliminated from the playoffs in early December.

This is especially bad news for what it tells us about 2020. The 12 teams in the above table averaged 9.9 wins the year of their big improvement, after winning 7.7 games the year before. However, of the ten teams whose improvement came before 2019, only one improved the following season, and in total they lost as many games as they won. Odds are that the Colts and Jaguars will both struggle more along the line this fall -- and they will lose more games as a result.

The biggest risers this year came from the AFC South, but the biggest faller played in the NFC West.

Offensive Line Continuity Scores, 2019
Team Continuity
Score
Number
of Starters
Line
Changes
Longest
Stretch
2018
Continuity
Score
Change
IND 48 5 0 16 24 +24
JAX 44 6 1 14 22 +22
GB 44 6 1 14 33 +11
BUF 37 6 2 8 32 +5
BAL 36 8 4 11 29 +7
TEN 34 7 3 7 24 +10
NYG 34 7 5 9 29 +5
NO 33 8 5 9 24 +9
PIT 31 7 6 7 28 +3
PHI 31 7 5 6 30 +1
ARI 31 7 5 6 17 +14
LAR 30 9 5 7 48 -18
TB 29 7 6 5 40 -11
WAS 29 8 5 5 19 +10
DEN 29 8 6 6 31 -2
SEA 28 9 6 6 26 +2
CAR 28 7 7 5 34 -6
KC 28 8 5 4 28 +0
NE 28 7 7 5 31 -3
LAC 27 9 6 5 38 -11
ATL 27 7 7 4 28 -1
CLE 26 8 7 4 38 -12
CHI 26 8 7 4 33 -7
DAL 25 9 7 4 32 -7
DET 25 8 9 5 28 -3
SF 25 8 8 4 37 -12
MIN 24 8 9 4 31 -7
OAK 22 10 9 4 28 -6
HOU 21 10 10 4 23 -2
NYJ 21 11 8 3 28 -7
CIN 21 10 9 3 30 -9
MIA 20 10 10 3 26 -6

The Los Angeles Rams led the league in offensive line continuity in 2017 and 2018, with a perfect 48 in the latter season, and they made the playoffs both years. In 2019, they started four different players at left guard alone, and their continuity score fell to 30. Granted, that was still better than average, but it no doubt contributed to L.A.'s fall from Super Bowl participant to wild-card also-ran. In hopes of returning to postseason glory, the Rams have re-signed starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center Brian Allen. That means all five starters from last season are currently under contract, though right tackle Rob Havenstein has been suggested as a possible trade candidate.

Most good teams finish high in continuity -- five of the top eight teams made the playoffs -- but there are exceptions. The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs were right in the middle of the pack at 28. Three different players started at left guard for Kansas City, and left tackle Eric Fisher missed eight games in the middle of the year. The team they beat for the Lombardi Trophy, the San Francisco 49ers, were even worse, tied for 24th with a score of 25. Left guard Laken Tomlinson was the only San Francisco lineman to start all 16 games. Backup lineman Daniel Brunskill proved to be a valuable utility infielder of sorts, starting four games at right tackle, two at right guard, and one at left tackle.

The worst offensive line in 2019, from a continuity standpoint, was the Miami Dolphins with a score of 20. Brian Flores' team used at least two starters at every position, including three at left tackle, four at right guard, and four at right tackle. This is largely why they were the NFL's worst offensive line in performance too, finishing last by a wide margin in adjusted line yards and next to last in adjusted sack rate.

The Dolphins had a lot of close competition for that bottom spot in the standings. The Jets, Bengals, and Texans were right behind them with scores of 21, while the Raiders were just one better at 22. (It's a little ironic the Dolphins and Texans both finished so low considering they swapped starting linemen before the season. For the record, Julie'n Davenport started one game at right tackle and seven at left for Miami; Laremy Tunsil started 14 games for Houston, all at left tackle.) This is the first year on record when five teams have had a continuity score of 22 or worse. The average continuity score in 2019 was 29.4. That's the fourth straight year under 30, after the average had been 30 or higher for 18 straight years dating back to 1999.

We'll close with a few bullet points on the lower-ranking teams:

  • The Jets used 11 starters, the most in the league. This is why they acquired three potential new starters (George Fant, Connor McGovern, and Greg Van Roten) in free agency. They were only the 15th team to use so many offensive line starters in a single season. The Dolphins, Texans, Raiders, and Bengals were right behind them with 10.
  • The Dolphins and Texans were the 23rd and 24th teams to make at least 10 line changes. The Bengals, Raiders, Vikings, and Lions were right behind them with nine each, followed by the Jets and 49ers with eight.
  • Neither the Dolphins, the Bengals, nor the Jets made it four consecutive games without making a change in their starting lineup. They were very close to the record in that category; the 2003 49ers, 2015 Patriots, 2016 Saints, and 2017 Lions all made a change at least once every three games.

Comments

1 comment, Last at 06 Apr 2020, 5:19pm

1 It wasn't JUST Mahomes'…

It wasn't JUST Mahomes' ankle and knee injuries that kept the Chiefs to a 6-4 start, nor his improving health that led to a 9-game winning streak to a SB win - but no one was over-looking Mahomes' status. The gradual improvement of the defense during the year got a lot of play as a factor in that turn-around too. But an over-looked part of the Chiefs SB run was the return to health of their offensive line.

LT Eric Fisher missed a good part of the early part of the year, and starting guards Andrew Wylie and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif both had injuries in the first half of the season. In Week 10, the Chiefs' loss to the Titans, they started Mitchell Schwartz and Cam Erving at tackle, Andrew Wylie and Martinas Rankin as guard, and Austin Reiter at center. The next week, Eric Fisher returned to replace Erving and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif bumped Rankin back to the bench. The rest of the way, including the playoffs, those five started except for Wylie. He played 4 weeks and then got hurt, with Stefen Wisniewski taking his place. Wisniewski played the remaining five games.

By my calculations, that works out to a continuity score of 21 out of 27, or 37 pro-rated to 16 games. I didn't calculate it for the first 10 games, but it pretty clearly was less than the full-season score of 28. In my view, better line continuity was a big factor in their championship.