Stat Analysis

Advanced analytics on player and team performance

Stat Analysis

To Return or Not to Return
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To Return or Not to Return

When kickoffs go into the end zone, should returners try to make a play, or just take a knee and settle for a touchback? Guest columnist Jack Duffin breaks down the numbers and finds teams are making the wrong decision more often than not.

27 comments, Last at 23 Feb 2019, 6:24am by RobotBoy
Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points
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Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points

Guest columnist Spencer Harrison looks at which plays are most and least successful at the goal line. Yes, the fade route is as bad as you think.

5 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2019, 6:37pm by PTORaven
Further Research on Play-Action Passing
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Further Research on Play-Action Passing

Guest columnist Ben Baldwin returns for another look at play-action passing in the NFL. Does a team's effectiveness on standard passes have an effect on play-action success? Do teams that run the ball a lot use play-action more often? Do teams that run well use play-action more? And finally, is play-action more effective when it's used sparingly?

14 comments, Last at 15 Dec 2018, 7:38pm by LionInAZ
Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure
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Introducing Rate of Adjusted Pressure

Guest columnist Ajit Kirpekar applies machine learning techniques to pressure rates from a dozen NFL seasons and comes up with some interesting conclusions -- most notably, that quarterbacks might be even more responsible than we thought for the pressure they do or do not face.

19 comments, Last at 01 Apr 2019, 11:04am by theslothook
Introducing Total Points
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Introducing Total Points

Alex Vigderman of Sports Info Solutions introduces Total Points, a tool for player evaluation. Like DVOA, it starts with play-by-play data, but then it adds charting information to more accurately measure the contributions of each player on the field. And it will tell you that Matt Ryan has been the NFL's best quarterback for several years now.

6 comments, Last at 19 Nov 2018, 10:28am by 3cardmonty
Schedule Strength in College Football
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Schedule Strength in College Football

The Ohio State Buckeyes have one of the most talented rosters in college football. Their opponents, however, do not. Guest columnist Akshay Ramprakash looks at the caliber of athlete at every school to see which teams are heavyweights and which are punching bags.

2 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2018, 10:07am by akshaynr
Drew Brees: The NFL's Passing King
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Drew Brees: The NFL's Passing King

Drew Brees needs 201 passing yards to surpass Peyton Manning as the NFL's new passing king. How long can his reign last, and who are the top challengers to the record?

43 comments, Last at 07 Oct 2018, 6:53pm by Alternator
Untangling the NFL Injury Web
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Untangling the NFL Injury Web

Is it possible to use player, coach, and stadium data to perfectly predict player injuries in the NFL? No -- but analyzing all three at once can show some surprising trends, including that the Eagles (Carson Wentz aside) seem to be ahead of the curve in keeping their players healthy.

21 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2018, 1:04pm by Zach Binney
Carson Wentz and the ACL Return Timetable
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Carson Wentz and the ACL Return Timetable

Carson Wentz may not be ready for Week 1 after tearing his ACL in Week 14 last year. We look through our injury database to see just what a reasonable timetable of return is for one of the game's most serious injuries. Also: how have the other 2017 starters with torn ACLs been used this preseason?

8 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2018, 6:55am by fyo
Lamar Jackson Part II: Deterring Man Cover-2
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Lamar Jackson Part II: Deterring Man Cover-2

In the second part of his look at scrambling quarterbacks, guest columnist Keegan Abdoo shows how Lamar Jackson and similar mobile quarterbacks can limit the playbooks of opposing defensive coordinators.