Stat Analysis

Advanced analytics on player and team performance

Stat Analysis

How Should We Judge Quarterbacks in the Postseason?
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How Should We Judge Quarterbacks in the Postseason?

Part I of a statistical study of NFL quarterbacks in the postseason. How should the quarterback be judged this time of year and why should anyone expect results against the best competition to be similar to the regular season?

87 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2014, 1:54pm by Scott Kacsmar
Secret Sauce Revisited
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Secret Sauce Revisited

After six years, we think it's high time to revisit Bill Barnwell's research on the regular-season DVOA splits that predict success in the playoffs. And while we're at it, we might as well see what the updated analysis says about this postseason.

144 comments, Last at 11 Jan 2014, 11:12pm by Overfitting
Recent NFL History of the No-Huddle Offense
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Recent NFL History of the No-Huddle Offense

A look at the recent statistical history of the hurry-up offense in the NFL. What can we learn about the past in the small sample sizes we have seen of the no-huddle's effect on the recent NFL?

15 comments, Last at 29 Dec 2015, 1:56pm by galaxyapple
QBs: Game-Winning Drive Study
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QBs: Game-Winning Drive Study

Peyton Manning has 49 game-winning drives. Tom Brady has 37. Aaron Rodgers has nine. What does it all mean? Scott Kacsmar breaks down the game-winning drives for 22 active quarterbacks as only he can.

38 comments, Last at 29 Dec 2015, 1:47pm by galaxyapple
Trying to Improve Sack Rates
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Trying to Improve Sack Rates

Using the game charting project, we are able to adjust sack rate, but can we improve it to learn why a quarterback gets sacked?

10 comments, Last at 04 Sep 2013, 12:31pm by Ryan D.
NFL Stats Not Always on Target
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NFL Stats Not Always on Target

There are more NFL stats and metrics than ever before, but when subjectivity enters into the method of calculation, we must show more caution in trusting the data.

20 comments, Last at 30 Aug 2013, 3:54pm by Will Allen
2013 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Underrated
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2013 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Underrated

Our second post comparing 2013 KUBIAK to ADP finds the underrated players in fantasy football you should consider waiting on.

17 comments, Last at 28 Aug 2013, 8:40am by BJR
2013 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated
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2013 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated

Part I of our look at KUBIAK rankings compared to ADP focuses on this year's overvalued players. From health scares to a steep learning curve for rookies, this is buyer's beware.

40 comments, Last at 29 Feb 2016, 3:58am by lettre
2012 Fumble Luck
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2012 Fumble Luck

Who got luckiest when the pointy ball hit the ground last year? Which teams can we expect to see a little rebound this year based on regression to the mean?

37 comments, Last at 29 Feb 2016, 3:53am by lettre
The NFL’s Battle with Concussions and Severe Injuries
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The NFL’s Battle with Concussions and Severe Injuries

After 266 concussions in the 2011 season, the NFL had 265 in 2012. Is that progress? Scott Kacsmar expects the number of concussions to rise in 2013 ... but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

29 comments, Last at 18 Sep 2013, 9:15pm by Burns