Stat Analysis

Advanced analytics on player and team performance

Stat Analysis

2018 Free Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis
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2018 Free Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis

Is Kirk Cousins the best free-agent quarterback in recent memory? Should Trumaine Johnson or Malcolm Butler have gotten the larger contract? And what makes a free-agent contract good or bad, anyway?

23 comments, Last at 25 Apr 2018, 5:35pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual
SackSEER 2018
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SackSEER 2018

The experts say that North Carolina State's Bradley Chubb will be the first edge rusher taken in the NFL draft, but our forecast system doubts he'll be much more productive than some of his peers.

16 comments, Last at 18 Apr 2018, 3:00pm by mehllageman56
Joe Thomas All-Stars (Defensive Edition)
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Joe Thomas All-Stars (Defensive Edition)

The Joe Thomas All-Stars flips to the defensive side of the ball. It isn't just the 2004 Buffalo Bills, we promise! There are some Buccaneers here, too!

14 comments, Last at 19 Apr 2018, 10:37am by BJR
Joe Thomas All-Stars (Offensive Edition)
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Joe Thomas All-Stars (Offensive Edition)

Introducing the Joe Thomas All-Stars: the greatest players in NFL history who never played in a playoff game. From the 'Aints to the Factory of Sadness and everywhere in between, these are the players who shone brightest in terrible conditions.

27 comments, Last at 12 Apr 2018, 4:04pm by gomer_rs
Playmaker Score 2018
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Playmaker Score 2018

Though Alabama's Calvin Ridley is expected to be the first wide receiver taken in the 2018 NFL draft, our numbers say that Maryland's D.J. Moore is the most promising name in a lackluster group of prospects.

19 comments, Last at 05 May 2018, 9:36pm by Adrian---
QBASE 2018
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QBASE 2018

Our statistical evaluation of the draft's top quarterback prospects finds one name way out in front, a tight cluster of names in the middle, and one name falling way behind.

30 comments, Last at 12 Apr 2018, 4:28pm by Aaron Schatz
Beating the NFL at Drafting QBs
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Beating the NFL at Drafting QBs

An alternative to QBASE: What if we told you that functional mobility was all you needed to predict the success of the top quarterback prospects? And that by one measure of that mobility, the top prospect in the class was USC's Sam Darnold?

25 comments, Last at 13 May 2018, 1:47pm by BigBlue6790
2017 Adjusted Games Lost: By Unit
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2017 Adjusted Games Lost: By Unit

Our breakdown of injuries by unit finds one team that has been hit hard at wide receiver and linebacker multiple times in recent years. Also: the Rams were very healthy across the board, and one hyped unit disappointed greatly despite great health.

7 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2018, 11:46am by kool
2017 Adjusted Games Lost
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2017 Adjusted Games Lost

Two NFC teams were hit hardest by injuries last year. One already set the AGL record in 2016, while the other has a coach with the worst AGL since 2002. Also: the Rams' incredible bill of health in L.A., and Tampa Bay's questionable injury reporting.

7 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2018, 5:49am by killwer
Defense and Rest Time
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Defense and Rest Time

Do defenses really wear out over the course of a game? Do defenses benefit from long drives that give them more time to rest on the sideline? Guest columnist Ben Baldwin investigates.

30 comments, Last at 23 Mar 2018, 3:23pm by Pat