Stat Analysis

Advanced analytics on player and team performance

Stat Analysis

The Owens Effect

Did you expect Terrell Owens to have such a dramatic effect on the Philadelphia offense? You shouldn't have. It turns out that the improvement in Philadelphia is unprecendented when compared to other recent situations where a star receiver changed teams. And a closer look at Donovan McNabb's numbers shows that the improvement is almost entirely driven by Owens. Michael David Smith and Aaron Schatz investigate in an expanded version of an article previously available in the New York Sun.

1 comment, Last at 18 Jan 2007, 2:52pm by adult asian dvd

2004 Strategy Revisited, Weeks 1-6

Each week at, William Krasker reviews the major coaching decisions of the week through the eyes of his Dynamic Programming Model. Today he revisits the most interesting of those decisions for Football Outsiders, reconsidering them and addressing comments made in the discussion of his articles on Extra Points. Included: Quentin Griffin's fumble in Week 2, San Francisco's punt from the St. Louis 30-yard line in Week 4, and Seattle's clock management in Week 5.

Game Preview: NYJ-NE / KC-SD Switch Special Teams

Two articles for the price of none. First, this week brings us the first meeting of two undefeated teams with at least five wins apiece since 1973 and hardly anybody in either Boston or New York has paid attention. Aaron tells you what to look for in this game using our innovative Football Outsiders metrics. Second, a year ago everyone was talking about Dante Hall. Now the numbers say Kansas City has the worst special teams unit in the league. Why special teams have contributed to the fall of the Chiefs and the rise of their division rivals in San Diego. Both articles originally appeared in the New York Sun.

Setting the Pace, Part II

In the first half of his guest column on offensive pace, Jim Armstrong showed that a faster or slower pace seems to have absolutely no connection with winning more games or even scoring more points. In part two, Jim looks at competing theories about how teams should change their pace. Should teams find the pace that works for their offense and stick with it, or should they specifically slow down against stronger opponents?

4 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 12:47am by online new car buying

Setting the Pace, Part I

Pace is a popular subject in NBA analysis, but what about the NFL? Are there any strategic elements to setting the pace? Does a so-called "ball control" offense really help when a team is overmatched? Jim Armstrong explores these issues in a two-part guest column. In part one, which were the fastest and slowest teams in 2003, and does a faster or slower pace help a team to win?

6 comments, Last at 08 Jan 2008, 2:52pm by DavidH

Look Kids: Big Ben, Parliament!

Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer are both in their first year as starting quarterbacks. Therefore, the Steelers and Bengals are both destined for losing seasons. Right? Nope. Ryan Wilson explains why a quarterback's experience may factor into team success less than you think.

2 comments, Last at 01 Feb 2007, 12:41pm by Amatory

Rogers, Over and Out

Two seasons. 22 Catches. 243 Yards. Is that what you expect out of the second pick in the draft? Injury or not, Michael David Smith says that Charles Rogers was just another big Matt Millen mistake.

Empty Backfield

When Ricky Williams retired last month, it was thought to be a massive blow to the Miami Dolphins. It was, but only emotionally. The team on the field might actually be better. In this article from, Aaron explains why the star running back is the most overrated player in football and makes the case for running back by committee.

Guest Column: Strength of Schedule -- A Dynamic Analysis

We're used to seeing strength of schedule listed as the average of last season's records for all 16 opponents. But does that mean anything if last year's opponents were just as good, or bad, as this year's? Anthony Brancato investigates.

Zebras on Parade

Some officials call more penalties than others, as Peter King pointed out last April, but does it make a difference? Do teams score more in games where the officials call more penalties? Does the better team win or lose more often when judged by a flag-happy crew? The newest Football Outsider, Ryan Wilson, is on the case.