Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Stat Analysis

Guest Column: Turnovers and the Unpredictability of Defense

Winning the turnover battle, as the media points out roughly every twelve seconds, is the key to winning football games. But what does this really mean? How important are turnovers and how much control do teams have over them? Does winning the turnover battle this week mean you will win it again next year? Jim Armstrong investigates in an enlightening guest column.

Back in Black (Ink)

When a classic Bill James statistic falls through the cracks, our own Michael David Smith catches that statistic for a segment we call "Back in Black (Ink)."

Sorry, Charlie

While Ian is hard at work doing actual work, Al has been thinking about Charlie Garner's arrival in Tampa. Can Garner help the Bucs get back to the Super Bowl? To do so, he'll have to do something only three other running backs in NFL history have accomplished.

Introducing Leader Ratio

Michael David Smith with a new statistic to help us compare today's stars to players from the past in an easy fashion. Learn just how dominant Jim Brown was before he went off to star in such films as I'm Gonna Git You, Sucka! Plus, the first and probably only time mediocre mid-80's running back Greg Bell is mentioned at Football Outsiders.

1 comment, Last at 02 Nov 2005, 9:48pm by Tom T.

2003 Schedule: The Rich Get Richer

No, not an article from the Dennis Kucinich campaign website, but an analysis of the strange phenomenon that was the 2003 NFL schedule. Our schedule strength rankings say that all the best teams had easy schedules, and all the worst teams had hard schedules. We thought that was strange too, until we looked at 2003 strength of schedule using just regular old wins and losses.

QB Ratings Reconsidered

It's one of the most debated statistics in sports: The NFL's passer rating. It's a pain to calculate and confusing to understand. Can't we do better? Yes, we can. In fact, we can three times over. Let the debate begin: The NFL's PASSER RATING vs. Brian Hook's HOOK QUARTERBACK VALUE vs. Anthony Brancato's QUARTERBACK RATING vs. Aaron Schatz's POINTS ABOVE REPLACEMENT.

Short-Term Dynasties: Comparing the Patriots with Past Two-Time Super Bowl Champions

All this dynasty talk from a team that's only won two Super Bowls... maybe people need to slow down a little. But while we can't assume the Patriots will become a dynasty over the rest of the decade, we can compare them to other teams that won two Super Bowls over a three-year period. Is it parity, or parody?

Do Penalties Really Disappear During the Playoffs?

Gregg Easterbrook says that officials seem to allow more contact in the playoffs without calling penalties. NFL Director of Officiating Mike Pereira says that officials call the playoffs the same way they call the regular season. Mike Smith crunches numbers to find out who's right.

Guest Column: Do Great Defenses Really Beat Great Offenses?

It's the most common cliche among football writers, but is it true? Does defense really win championships? Vincent Verhei says not in the last ten years.

'Tis Better to Have Rushed and Lost Than Never to Have Rushed at All

Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ says that teams too often go pass-wacky in short-yardage situations. True or false? We've gone through every single play of 2003 in order to test this fundamental TMQ axiom.