Stat Analysis

Advanced analytics on player and team performance

Stat Analysis

Short-Term Dynasties: Comparing the Patriots with Past Two-Time Super Bowl Champions

All this dynasty talk from a team that's only won two Super Bowls... maybe people need to slow down a little. But while we can't assume the Patriots will become a dynasty over the rest of the decade, we can compare them to other teams that won two Super Bowls over a three-year period. Is it parity, or parody?

Do Penalties Really Disappear During the Playoffs?

Gregg Easterbrook says that officials seem to allow more contact in the playoffs without calling penalties. NFL Director of Officiating Mike Pereira says that officials call the playoffs the same way they call the regular season. Mike Smith crunches numbers to find out who's right.

Guest Column: Do Great Defenses Really Beat Great Offenses?

It's the most common cliche among football writers, but is it true? Does defense really win championships? Vincent Verhei says not in the last ten years.

'Tis Better to Have Rushed and Lost Than Never to Have Rushed at All

Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ says that teams too often go pass-wacky in short-yardage situations. True or false? We've gone through every single play of 2003 in order to test this fundamental TMQ axiom.

Fun With Sacks, Part II

Last Monday, we took a look at sack rate to determine which teams did the best job of protecting the quarterback. What if the sacks are the fault of the quarterback? We break down four years of sack rates to see if some quarterbacks might be responsible for their own demise. For example, quarterbacks whose names rhyme with "Job Bronson."

1 comment, Last at 13 Jun 2005, 9:24pm by Richie

Are Penalties Overrated?

The Hidden Game of Football says that penalties aren't very important because they even out in the long run. True or false? Michael David Smith has some interesting facts about 2002 numbers as well as 37 years of Super Bowl champions.

Fun With Sacks

OK, so our offensive and defensive line numbers have only included run blocking so far. What about pass blocking? Aaron takes the sacks per pass attempt statistic used by the folks over at Football Project, tweaks it a little bit, and runs the 2003 numbers.

3 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2011, 2:19pm by jeff Anderton

The Era of Unpredictability

This year the Raiders and (probably) the Bucs will miss the playoffs. Michael David Smith asks: Why are we so surprised? In the era of unpredictability, Super Bowl teams regularly miss the playoffs the next year... and often return to the playoffs the year after.

In Defense of Ken Walter

With his fourth column for us, we hereby shift Michael David Smith from "guest columnist" to "Football Outsider," which means he eventually gets a cartoon of himself drawn by Jason Beattie. Never one to shy from controversy, Mike devotes his first article as "a regular" to defending Patriots punter-turned-ex-punter-turned-punter-again Ken Walter. The secret lies not in the length of punts, but in the length of returns.

Second Half Success

Is second half success a good omen for next year? Given the 2003 Patriots and Seahawks, we might say yes. Given 32 different teams since 1990, Michael David Smith says, well, maybe not.